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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    It is not completely outside of the realm of possibility now that BoZo gets his election by resigning as PM, and party leader...
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    Its probably just sour grapes but I am not enjoying this situation. The FTPA has to go. A PM needs to be able to go to the country if parliament is thwarting the government's agenda.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Scott_P said:
    Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who refused to even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement

    No surprise there, as the Miliband's showed being brothers does not stop political differences
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats

    Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.
    6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory with Yougov, 8% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Brexit Party, only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory.

    The evidence is there
    only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory
    A trifle pessimistic, unless you take Ken Clarke's view that the Tory party is now the Brexit party mark 2.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Tabman said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tabman said:

    ab195 said:

    I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.

    Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.

    It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
    While I tend to agree with you, it also ought to seek to retain those you refer to as 'sandalistas'.
    There are important issues (climate change and environment for example) which ought to unite all of the above.
    The problem is that they aren't real Liberals; they're the socialist "Red Guard" tendency that joined when the party was largely moribund, because they thought the Labour Party was too establishment. They don't really believe in Liberalism.
    Radical youth has always had a place in the part, going back to the 60s.
  • Not checked, but I backed Mr. Meeks' tip (19) on Labour getting a majority a week or two ago. Suspect the odds have rather declined since.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    So when May was in charge the strategy of Party before Brexit didn't work.

    The new strategy of Brexit before Party seems to also not work.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1169560573895467009?fbclid=IwAR1vJIPrDwkY9zSTe7eJQMVC3flZqDC9RIIaDAGvRK2Maw2xJifQ3-Al7t8
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Boris should strike a very loving and conciliatory tone when asked about Jo, I think there will be some sympathy for them both of they retain a very warm tone now the deed is dood

    if the deed is done, the timing was less than helpful. He could quite happily have banged out a note at 7pm.
  • Although voters think Boris is in it for himself they are split on whether he’s genuinely trying to get a deal with the EU:

    BJ seriously trying to get deal with EU: 39
    NOT seriously trying to get deal with EU: 42
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Do you think Boris Johnson cares more about
    His Own Interest: 42
    The National Interest: 21
    The Conservative Party’s interest: 5
    All of them equally: 16

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jb2o1kckli/PVResults_190904_Snap_Final.pdf

    Regional breakdowns do not bode well for “Boris will sweep the North”...

    Terrible poll for Cummings and his puppet.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1169550043935850498

    The SNP hold the key to this don't they.

    Nicola playing a very crafty game keeping everyone waiting to see which way she'll jump. :D

    Personally I think she'll go for 15th October once the bill is passed tomorrows as she can say she's made sure NO DEAL doesn't happen on 31st October AND she's dragging cowardly Corbyn kicking and screaming to the polls so Scots now have the opportunity to kick Lab and Con out of Scotland once and for all.

    She's a smart operator.
    Only Jezza has the GE key and Johnson the Jester and wee Jimmy Krankie can scream as loud as they want. November you cant trust Johnson GE it is.
    We will see if the chicken clucks or not, 3 years shouting his mouth off about it and then runs away when offered it, not a good look but normal for unprincipled chancers.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats

    Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.
    6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory with Yougov, 8% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Brexit Party, only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory.

    The evidence is there
    only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory - that's a frightening statistic
    That's what a Cummings-Johnson duo do to you ?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    edited September 2019

    Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
    Yes, and the situation is worse than might appear at first glance, because on examination the Leave portion fragments into groups with significantly different views of what Leave actually means.

    No, I don't have an answer either.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    IanB2 said:

    Tabman said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tabman said:

    ab195 said:

    I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.

    Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.

    It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
    While I tend to agree with you, it also ought to seek to retain those you refer to as 'sandalistas'.
    There are important issues (climate change and environment for example) which ought to unite all of the above.
    The problem is that they aren't real Liberals; they're the socialist "Red Guard" tendency that joined when the party was largely moribund, because they thought the Labour Party was too establishment. They don't really believe in Liberalism.
    Radical youth has always had a place in the part, going back to the 60s.
    Indeed but the youth wing is pretty Orange Book these days
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Do you think a GE is or is not the best way of settling Brexit

    Is: 21
    Is Not: 53

    Literally no-one wants the poisoned chalice of sorting this mess out!
  • eristdoof said:

    AnneJGP said:

    A Gnu with Ken Clarke as PM and Harriet as DPM is the right choice.

    Make that a GND - there is no national unity.
    That would be a GoNaD
    Running on a platform of Bollocks to Brexit?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited September 2019

    Do you think Boris Johnson cares more about
    His Own Interest: 42
    The National Interest: 21
    The Conservative Party’s interest: 5
    All of them equally: 16

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jb2o1kckli/PVResults_190904_Snap_Final.pdf

    Regional breakdowns do not bode well for “Boris will sweep the North”...

    Terrible poll for Cummings and his puppet.
    < HYUFD > Still 58% of people think Johnson is not acting in his own interest...< /HYUFD >
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    eek said:

    Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
    How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.
    Learn to read. I said almost 50%.

    The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
    OK 48% wish to leave the EU and 48% think democracy has failed.

    It's still a massive jump for which you have zero evidence.

    Personally I would put it at 10-16% or whatever percentage of the vote BXP has today.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Not checked, but I backed Mr. Meeks' tip (19) on Labour getting a majority a week or two ago. Suspect the odds have rather declined since.

    I'm on that too but no polls any good for Labour recently.
  • Boris should strike a very loving and conciliatory tone when asked about Jo, I think there will be some sympathy for them both of they retain a very warm tone now the deed is dood

    if the deed is done, the timing was less than helpful. He could quite happily have banged out a note at 7pm.
    Jo Johnson should probably never have taken a job from his brother in the first place, but it is astonishing that, having convinced him to do so in late July, Boris Johnson has been unable to hold onto him beyond early September.

    If I was a shameless careerist like Matt Hancock I might be starting to feel very nervous about my career choices right now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:


    His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats

    If a constituency voted 52% Leave and Labour won the seat with 48% in GE 2015/17. You could resonably conclude that most of Labour voters there voted remain.
    So what, it only takes a few Labour Leavers there voting Tory or Brexit Party and the Tories take the seat
    In a seat with 48% Labour! Dream on.
    When the Tories are on 40% of course
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This is all very Trump-ish.

    It's chaotic, it's stupid, it's incompetent, it's ridiculous, it's hopeless, it's all collapsing.

    And yet all the core messages to the target voters he needs are intact.

    Can Johnson campaign as well as Trump though ?
    Trump has the advantage of genuinely being stupid.
    so how come he's POTUS ?
    Alan, as we see in the UK, brains are not a requirement to be running a country
  • Some shameless theft of that line going on on twitter.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    BoZo could sack Cummings at his presser today.

    That would appease some of his backbenchers for a bit. Might screw up his election plans.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    We know from the 2016 back story that Cummings hates the Tory Party. Lol.
  • Scott_P said:

    It is not completely outside of the realm of possibility now that BoZo gets his election by resigning as PM, and party leader...

    That would not in itself bring about an election would it? If he resigned as PM he would have to stay on whilst the Tories elected a successor, as May did. HM would not accept his resignation until someone else was available to take over. Or are you saying he would tell her to send for Corbyn?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Mr. Pointer, a bit like Pertinax, he's best known for the brevity of his reign. But Pertinax at least tried to diminish the authority of the Praetorians (did it a bit too much, perhaps).

    Think I wrote a few days ago that the more the PM tightened his grip, the more MPs would slip through his fingers. Didn't expect it to happen to quite this extent.

    I wonder if the PCP should ask Cameron to stand in Jo Johnson's current seat.

    Or Osborne? ;-)
    George for PM
  • Scott_P said:
    Might be a coincidence but the Betfair odds against Revoke have shortened a bit.
    I find the odds on a GE this year at 1.08 inexplicable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Jonathan said:
    Putting Corbyn into bat would be a massive risk for Johnson but advised by Cummings I suspect.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Not checked, but I backed Mr. Meeks' tip (19) on Labour getting a majority a week or two ago. Suspect the odds have rather declined since.

    I'm on that too but no polls any good for Labour recently.
    If you wait until the polls move, the price will have gone. Sadly, you and I are not the only two watching. :(
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited September 2019
    ab195 said:

    I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.

    A Lib Dem friend of mine has just quit because of Phillip Lee (in particular, his views on HIV-positive arrivals to the UK).

    I do 100% see her point though I suspect these are inevitable growing pains - bigger party, bigger tent, there will always be some new arrivals who are less than sound. I wish Lee could have come out with a more humble statement like "the Lib Dems have a pioneering record on LGBT rights and I intend to learn from their record" or somesuch.

    I don't have a lot of time for the "but they're not Liberal" crowd though - it's one of those words that means different things to everyone. Witness Macron insisting that ALDE was renamed because "Liberal" is usually taken as neo-liberal in France.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    edited September 2019

    Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
    Yes, and the situation is worse than might appear at first glance, because on examination the Leave portion fragments into groups with significantly different views of what Leave actually means.

    No, I don't have an answer either.
    Referendum that gives multiple options but also allows ranking seems best bet:

    Revoke A50
    Deal with CU, SM and FOM
    Deal without FOM but CU
    Deal without CU
    No Deal

    I would assume a Norway / Canada style deal would win, and No Deal and Revoke would lose. I mean, I'm supposedly an avid remainer, and I'd probably vote Norway deal above Revoke because I do think we should leave in some sense, but not in a no deal scenario.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited September 2019

    That would not in itself bring about an election would it? If he resigned as PM he would have to stay on whilst the Tories elected a successor, as May did. HM would not accept his resignation until someone else was available to take over. Or are you saying he would tell her to send for Corbyn?

    That no person being able to command a majority in the House, an election should occur
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Scott_P said:
    Who'd Osborne support in the Tory leadership race ?
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Jo Johnson is a diehard Remainer who refused to even vote for the Withdrawal Agreement

    No surprise there, as the Miliband's showed being brothers does not stop political differences
    Jo's only resigned to stop me posting there are six Etonians in the government (not all were in the same school year, obviously: Boris values diversity).
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    edited September 2019
    Deleted
  • Jonathan said:
    After watching that I now support Cummings.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    eek said:

    Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
    How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.
    Learn to read. I said almost 50%.

    The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
    It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.
    I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".

    Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.
  • Scott_P said:
    Might be a coincidence but the Betfair odds against Revoke have shortened a bit.
    I find the odds on a GE this year at 1.08 inexplicable.
    Scott_P said:

    BoZo could sack Cummings at his presser today.

    That would appease some of his backbenchers for a bit. Might screw up his election plans.

    Cummings should have been kept on the bench and only brought out for the campaign. What he’s good at.

    He makes Nick Timothy/Fiona Hill look like the Samaritans.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,264
    edited September 2019
    148grss said:

    I know there are many learned lawyers here, any opinions on the case happening today? I'm trying to follow on Twitter, but I am but a layman.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1169547986382270464

    AIUI the ruling in the Scottish case that failed so far was that it was basically a political not a legal matter, despite Joanne Cherry (QC!) declaring that:

    "Mr Johnson's announcement was a "constitutional outrage and profoundly undemocratic". (BBC), and the Durgin' Sturgeon rabbiting on about "the day democracy died".

    I think the case in London is likely to have competent people involved.

    As for who to follow - Joshua Rozenburg and especially Carl Gardner if he is commentating, who was constitutional law adviser to the Blair Govt, and a non-partisan thinker.

    I think it is good that it is all coming to a head, and hopefully we get clarity and move on.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    He probably needs to restore the whip and get Hoey, Austin, elphicke etc to back a one line ftpa amendment if the SNP wont help him out. Or quit. Hes let the clusterfuck become self fulfilling. If the plan was exposing the opposition as blocking Brexit I'm not sure where the showing Boris as its saviour bit was..... they forgot they need wins too
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    eristdoof said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1169547762641358848

    Nope, more than 50% of the population are stupider than the average person.

    Wrong. 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person.
    Think he was right first time and 50% was low call
    " 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person." is definitely right.

    "more than 50% of the population are stupider than the mean person" is (probably) also right.

    Average can be used to mean "mean" or "median".

    I like the old chestnut "Most welshmen have more than the average number of legs".
    I understand that but was jokingly saying that he was right that more than 50% of the population are stupid and that his number should have been higher.
    PS: the Welsh joke is amusing, if a bit harsh on Welshmen
    Equally true of Scotland, malcolm.
    Though it really ought be 'very, very, very slightly more than the average number of legs'.
    Not sure about the English - we may have more than our fair share of three legged oddities.
    Nigel , yes on both stupid and legs
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:
    I was going to joke about it being run over, but thought better of it.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    felix said:

    Do you think a GE is or is not the best way of settling Brexit

    Is: 21
    Is Not: 53

    Literally no-one wants the poisoned chalice of sorting this mess out!
    Not even the people !
  • Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:
    Putting Corbyn into bat would be a massive risk for Johnson but advised by Cummings I suspect.
    It’s possible this process finishes off both Johnson and Corbyn.

    That would be rather nice.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    Tabman said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tabman said:

    ab195 said:

    I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.

    Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.

    It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
    While I tend to agree with you, it also ought to seek to retain those you refer to as 'sandalistas'.
    There are important issues (climate change and environment for example) which ought to unite all of the above.
    The problem is that they aren't real Liberals; they're the socialist "Red Guard" tendency that joined when the party was largely moribund, because they thought the Labour Party was too establishment. They don't really believe in Liberalism.
    It will be stored up problem, precisely because the “sadalistas” are presumably the local branch chairs etc. What do Chukka/Lee/Berger think of nuclear power? Nuclear weapons? School discipline? Police powers? Gvt intercept powers? That debate will be interesting to see.
  • Worth noting that Jo Jonson was a Minister with responsibility for at least two areas - IP and universities - that are going to be most negatively affected by No Deal.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
    Yes, and the situation is worse than might appear at first glance, because on examination the Leave portion fragments into groups with significantly different views of what Leave actually means.

    No, I don't have an answer either.
    There isn't an answer. The starting point would be a second referendum with a fixed definition of leave but that will lose and Farage and co will continue to call it out as fake / unfair regardless of the leave option.

    I suspect we will spend decades trying to work out who the worst PM of all time was and it will end up being Cameron 1st, May 2nd and Boris will be let off due to the speed of the implosion.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Boris Johnson is to Tory party what Brian Clough was to Leeds United.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878

    The LD Berger, new at McDonald's...

    Anyone think she can hold Liverpool Wavertree. I think it used to be a LD seat many many years ago, but its become monolithically Labour recently (like almost all Merseyside seats).
  • Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:
    Putting Corbyn into bat would be a massive risk for Johnson but advised by Cummings I suspect.
    Not a bad punt. If Corbyn had any sense, he'd put a tie on and pretend he was Tony Blair for three weeks, in an unlikely attempt to prove he's a less chaotic choice than Bozza. But I suspect he won't be able to resist nationalising Tesco or giving Che Guevara a posthumous knighthood on his first day in power (or something equally horse-frightening), and leave Boris a clear run.
  • Scott_P said:
    Bet they’re really glad they ran all those “His own brother can’t trust him” Miliband ads....
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    ab195 said:

    I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.

    A Lib Dem friend of mine has just quit because of Phillip Lee (in particular, his views on HIV-positive arrivals to the UK).

    I do 100% see her point though I suspect these are inevitable growing pains - bigger party, bigger tent, there will always be some new arrivals who are less than sound. I wish Lee could have come out with a more humble statement like "the Lib Dems have a pioneering record on LGBT rights and I intend to learn from their record" or somesuch.

    I don't have a lot of time for the "but they're not Liberal" crowd though - it's one of those words that means different things to everyone. Witness Macron insisting that ALDE was renamed because "Liberal" is usually taken as neo-liberal in France.
    The LGBT issue has caused some consternation, but the person(s) concerned didn't seem to have too much problem with Tim Farron, so I suspect it's tinged by the arrival point of the defector (the centre right).

    Liberal has a clear meaning in the UK. And it encompasses economic Liberalism.
  • Scott_P said:
    Bet they’re really glad they ran all those “His own brother can’t trust him” Miliband ads....
    Osborne has not noticed the awkward juxtaposition of his two front page stories.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Jonathan said:
    After watching that I now support Cummings.
    Excellent
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065


    I don't have a lot of time for the "but they're not Liberal" crowd though - it's one of those words that means different things to everyone. Witness Macron insisting that ALDE was renamed because "Liberal" is usually taken as neo-liberal in France.

    Exactly.

    Liberal in America means "Left" on the American political spectrum.
    In Australia Liberal means Conservative.
    In Germany Liberal means the FDP party who are Entrepreneur/small buissnessman/low tax party, who would slot nicely into the (pre July 2019) Conservative Party.
    In Britian I have heard "liberal" being used as "Neo-Liberal" and "pro-diversity" as well as the old "Liberal Party" meaning.

    I have given up using the word because everyone assumes I mean something else.
  • He probably needs to restore the whip and get Hoey, Austin, elphicke etc to back a one line ftpa amendment if the SNP wont help him out. Or quit. Hes let the clusterfuck become self fulfilling. If the plan was exposing the opposition as blocking Brexit I'm not sure where the showing Boris as its saviour bit was..... they forgot they need wins too

    Hard to see the independents and MPs who are standing down backing an early election if the opposition parties oppose.
  • Hillary Benn currently pulling the legs off Michael Gove

    https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/2e9c4033-92b3-4edb-b5dd-09f0990e832c
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    13-1-44-1 figures for England this morning.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:
    Putting Corbyn into bat would be a massive risk for Johnson but advised by Cummings I suspect.
    It’s possible this process finishes off both Johnson and Corbyn.

    That would be rather nice.
    Certainly needs at least one of their parties to wake up to how monumentally myopic they've been in their choice of leaders. Hopefully another GE where they both limp to something short of a majority will start to get the message through.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    ab195 said:

    Tabman said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tabman said:

    ab195 said:

    I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.

    Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.

    It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
    While I tend to agree with you, it also ought to seek to retain those you refer to as 'sandalistas'.
    There are important issues (climate change and environment for example) which ought to unite all of the above.
    The problem is that they aren't real Liberals; they're the socialist "Red Guard" tendency that joined when the party was largely moribund, because they thought the Labour Party was too establishment. They don't really believe in Liberalism.
    It will be stored up problem, precisely because the “sadalistas” are presumably the local branch chairs etc. What do Chukka/Lee/Berger think of nuclear power? Nuclear weapons? School discipline? Police powers? Gvt intercept powers? That debate will be interesting to see.
    They used to be. They were when I was active 10-15 years ago. But they're getting into their seventies now and their active days are getting behind them.

    Four years ago the party had 45,000 members. It now has 110,000. It's already a totally different beast to what it was.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:

    That would not in itself bring about an election would it? If he resigned as PM he would have to stay on whilst the Tories elected a successor, as May did. HM would not accept his resignation until someone else was available to take over. Or are you saying he would tell her to send for Corbyn?

    That no person being able to command a majority in the House, an election should occur
    So Corbyn would be appointed, fail to secure a VOC and then go into an election (on a date chosen by him) as PM? Can't see Johnson going for that.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited September 2019
    What's happening with Millar-Major (or Major-Millar) ? :D
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    eek said:

    Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
    Yes, and the situation is worse than might appear at first glance, because on examination the Leave portion fragments into groups with significantly different views of what Leave actually means.

    No, I don't have an answer either.
    There isn't an answer. The starting point would be a second referendum with a fixed definition of leave but that will lose and Farage and co will continue to call it out as fake / unfair regardless of the leave option.

    I suspect we will spend decades trying to work out who the worst PM of all time was and it will end up being Cameron 1st, May 2nd and Boris will be let off due to the speed of the implosion.
    It all went south when May lost Cameron's majority and had to rely on the DUP which then led to the backstop becoming Uk wide rather than just NI only.

    A vote to leave the EU was a shame but not disastrous, its the handling post referendum that has been appalling.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    eristdoof said:


    I don't have a lot of time for the "but they're not Liberal" crowd though - it's one of those words that means different things to everyone. Witness Macron insisting that ALDE was renamed because "Liberal" is usually taken as neo-liberal in France.

    Exactly.

    Liberal in America means "Left" on the American political spectrum.
    In Australia Liberal means Conservative.
    In Germany Liberal means the FDP party who are Entrepreneur/small buissnessman/low tax party, who would slot nicely into the (pre July 2019) Conservative Party.
    In Britian I have heard "liberal" being used as "Neo-Liberal" and "pro-diversity" as well as the old "Liberal Party" meaning.

    I have given up using the word because everyone assumes I mean something else.
    Apparently in the UK "Conservative" means ideological zeal, chaos and brinkmanship.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    Barnesian said:

    Jo Johnson quits as minister AND as Tory MP!

    EDIT Sorry I'm 8 minutes behind in this fast moving drama.

    So, assuming a GE doesn't overtake matters, a by-election looms. Perhaps Hallam too if O'Mara even un un resigns (or whatever).
  • Maybe Boris could have Jo’s seat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Scott_P said:
    Bet they’re really glad they ran all those “His own brother can’t trust him” Miliband ads....
    Osborne has not noticed the awkward juxtaposition of his two front page stories.
    I think he has
  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats

    Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.
    6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory with Yougov, 8% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Brexit Party, only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory.

    The evidence is there
    only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory - that's a frightening statistic
    Typo -,it’s been corrected to “Labour”.

    The 2017 Con vote is quite sticky ~75% IIRC second only to LD and miles ahead of Labour (~56%)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Barnesian said:

    Jo Johnson quits as minister AND as Tory MP!

    EDIT Sorry I'm 8 minutes behind in this fast moving drama.

    So, assuming a GE doesn't overtake matters, a by-election looms. Perhaps Hallam too if O'Mara even un un resigns (or whatever).
    It’s being taken as announcing his intention to stand down in the anticipated GE, not a resignation.

    It reads as if he is resigning now as a minister, but even that awaits clarification
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    edited September 2019
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
    How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.
    Learn to read. I said almost 50%.

    The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
    It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.
    I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".

    Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.
    It is remarkable how many posters with extremely different viewpoints would tolerate a soft Brexit answer compared to the polls.

    The reason is we are more engaged and have considered the possible outcomes and their consequences shifting us away from our instinctive first preferences.

    To repeat the process for the country, the best chance is Rory Stewarts national convention or citizens assembly. Take away revoke, referendum and no deal. Take away politicians. Ask 250 people drawn by lot to spend 3 months clarifying what they want the relationship with the EU to be within those constraints. Get them to elect a dozen to negotiate that with the EU for another 3 months. Parliament commits in advance to pass whatever they agree.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    edited September 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    13-1-44-1 figures for England this morning.

    The 'it's been such a helluva morning no one is talking about the cricket' scale is hovering around nine.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    edited September 2019
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
    How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.
    Learn to read. I said almost 50%.

    The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
    It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.
    I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".

    Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.
    I would agree that a soft Brexit of some type has to be the answer. Whilst it won't solve all the issues it will avoid the two extemes of Remain and No Deal and so limit the backlash.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Jo Johnson quits as minister AND as Tory MP!

    EDIT Sorry I'm 8 minutes behind in this fast moving drama.

    So, assuming a GE doesn't overtake matters, a by-election looms. Perhaps Hallam too if O'Mara even un un resigns (or whatever).
    It’s being taken as announcing his intention to stand down in the anticipated GE, not a resignation.

    It reads as if he is resigning now as a minister, but even that awaits clarification
    Its an important distinction to clarify, one is very embarrassing, the other a deliberate knifing
  • ab195 said:

    I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.

    A Lib Dem friend of mine has just quit because of Phillip Lee (in particular, his views on HIV-positive arrivals to the UK).

    I do 100% see her point though I suspect these are inevitable growing pains - bigger party, bigger tent, there will always be some new arrivals who are less than sound. I wish Lee could have come out with a more humble statement like "the Lib Dems have a pioneering record on LGBT rights and I intend to learn from their record" or somesuch.

    I don't have a lot of time for the "but they're not Liberal" crowd though - it's one of those words that means different things to everyone. Witness Macron insisting that ALDE was renamed because "Liberal" is usually taken as neo-liberal in France.
    The Lib Dems accepted Aimee Challenor into their ranks, gleefully. That tells me all I need to know about them on issues like LGBT rights. feminists and womens rights can go hang as long as they are pandering to the latest trend. As for Jenny Rigg. Good riddance.
  • Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
    How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.
    Learn to read. I said almost 50%.

    The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
    It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.
    I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".

    Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.
    I would agree that a soft Brexit of some type has to be the answer. Whilst it won't solve all the issues it will avoid the two extemes of Remain and No Deal and so limit the backlash.
    Agreed.
  • IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Jo Johnson quits as minister AND as Tory MP!

    EDIT Sorry I'm 8 minutes behind in this fast moving drama.

    So, assuming a GE doesn't overtake matters, a by-election looms. Perhaps Hallam too if O'Mara even un un resigns (or whatever).
    It’s being taken as announcing his intention to stand down in the anticipated GE, not a resignation.

    It reads as if he is resigning now as a minister, but even that awaits clarification
    Its an important distinction to clarify, one is very embarrassing, the other a deliberate knifing

    The quotes are the killer.

  • Maybe Boris could have Jo’s seat.

    It will be interesting to see how the cowardly chicken Corbyn meme is played back at the PM when he parachutes into a safe seat of a loyal real conservative who he kicked out of the party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
    How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.
    Learn to read. I said almost 50%.

    The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
    It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.
    I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".

    Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.
    I would agree that a soft Brexit of some type has to be the answer. Whilst it won't solve all the issues it will avoid the two extemes of Remain and No Deal and so limit the backlash.
    If it's going to be 'remain' then actually implementing the EU defintion on FoM etc instead of our ridiculous gold plating/EU says you need to give an inch, giving a mile would be a very good move too.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Tbf Boris hasn't done anything, its Jo that has decided to act, so his comments reflect his view of family
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
    How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.
    Learn to read. I said almost 50%.

    The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
    It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.
    I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".

    Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.
    I would agree that a soft Brexit of some type has to be the answer. Whilst it won't solve all the issues it will avoid the two extemes of Remain and No Deal and so limit the backlash.
    Agreed.
    There are two possible outcomes.

    1 An EFTA style soft Brexit
    2 Remain, with genuine reform and an opt-out from every closer union.

    Ideally any solution needs to be put to the people in a referendum.
  • Tabman said:

    ab195 said:

    I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.

    A Lib Dem friend of mine has just quit because of Phillip Lee (in particular, his views on HIV-positive arrivals to the UK).

    I do 100% see her point though I suspect these are inevitable growing pains - bigger party, bigger tent, there will always be some new arrivals who are less than sound. I wish Lee could have come out with a more humble statement like "the Lib Dems have a pioneering record on LGBT rights and I intend to learn from their record" or somesuch.

    I don't have a lot of time for the "but they're not Liberal" crowd though - it's one of those words that means different things to everyone. Witness Macron insisting that ALDE was renamed because "Liberal" is usually taken as neo-liberal in France.
    The LGBT issue has caused some consternation, but the person(s) concerned didn't seem to have too much problem with Tim Farron, so I suspect it's tinged by the arrival point of the defector (the centre right).
    Given your profile photo I suspect you do know who I'm talking about!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    CF, Labour has its elevator pitch:

    "Vote Corbyn for relative sanity."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    There must be a chance the Johnson administration will simply collapse in acrimony.

    Not negligible.

    The brother's resignation is telling.

    It tells me 2 things. That Boris really is going for No Deal and is not contemplating anything else.

    That those who know him best can see that as PM he is unfit for purpose.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats

    Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.
    6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory with Yougov, 8% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Brexit Party, only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory.

    The evidence is there
    only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory - that's a frightening statistic
    Typo -,it’s been corrected to “Labour”.

    The 2017 Con vote is quite sticky ~75% IIRC second only to LD and miles ahead of Labour (~56%)
    71-23 is not miles ahead of 77-18
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    I dont think Jo is going to be particularly popular with his colleagues today, not the leavers anyway and remainers backing Boris arent going to be thrilled with him
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
    How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.
    Learn to read. I said almost 50%.

    The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
    It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.
    I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".

    Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.
    I would agree that a soft Brexit of some type has to be the answer. Whilst it won't solve all the issues it will avoid the two extemes of Remain and No Deal and so limit the backlash.
    Agreed.
    There are two possible outcomes.

    1 An EFTA style soft Brexit
    2 Remain, with genuine reform and an opt-out from every closer union.

    Ideally any solution needs to be put to the people in a referendum.
    where is this Reform going to come from ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    IanB2 said:

    We know from the 2016 back story that Cummings hates the Tory Party. Lol.

    Yet the Tories have a 10% lead over Labour in the latest Yougov while under May the Tories were third.

    Cummings is pursuing the only agenda to win the next general election ie deliver Brexit at all costs and end austerity
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited September 2019

    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
    How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.
    Learn to read. I said almost 50%.

    The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
    It is a hard problem with the country so polarised.
    I agree with you Richard that a Norway-ish type Brexit would have been the best compromise solution, but sadly I think that too (in the unlikely event of its happening) might well be seen as the theft of a "legitimate victory".

    Though in its favour it might be seen as depriving both sides of 'victory'.
    I would agree that a soft Brexit of some type has to be the answer. Whilst it won't solve all the issues it will avoid the two extemes of Remain and No Deal and so limit the backlash.
    Agreed.
    There are two possible outcomes.

    1 An EFTA style soft Brexit
    2 Remain, with genuine reform and an opt-out from every closer union.

    Ideally any solution needs to be put to the people in a referendum.
    where is this Reform going to come from ?
    The Reformotron (tm) obviously! Apparently the EU are up for it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    We know from the 2016 back story that Cummings hates the Tory Party. Lol.

    Yet the Tories have a 10% lead over Labour in the latest Yougov while under May the Tories were third.

    Cummings is pursuing the only agenda to win the next general election ie deliver Brexit at all costs and end austerity
    Polls are simply that. Its the votes that count, currently I wouldnt call anything certain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    kinabalu said:

    There must be a chance the Johnson administration will simply collapse in acrimony.

    Not negligible.

    The brother's resignation is telling.

    It tells me 2 things. That Boris really is going for No Deal and is not contemplating anything else.

    That those who know him best can see that as PM he is unfit for purpose.
    Jo backing Boris never made sense given his reasons for resigning as a minister previously.
  • Gove: The future is known only to the Almighty
This discussion has been closed.