Corbyn is a crap leader with some rather unpleasant views, but compared to Johnson, he'd seem like Clement Attlee or Blair in his heyday. And for all his faults, he does at seem at least to be motivated by wanting to do good by the country, which really cannot be said of No10's current incumbent. So like Jonathan, I heartily welcome PM Corbyn, even though I'd probably regard his premiership as not being a good thing for the country in more normal times.
What utter crap.
Corbyn has done nothing but put his own interests ahead of the country's ever since he voted 3 times against the Withdrawal Agreement despite agreeing with most of it purely to divide the Tories (even Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3).
But No Deal is now a reality and the vast majority of Tory MPs bar the 21 just put party before country.
As fortune would have it Jezza was there to save the day from the wreckers.
Nope, most voters opposed extension with Survation and Yougov this week, Corbyn is denying the will of the people and the people will get their revenge
Morning me old mucker. I don't think Jezza will mind that too much. As we have rehearsed on here many times at a GE the government is elected on 30-odd percent of the vote. Hence at any one time the will of the people is against the government. The only people that matter to any party is the 30-40% of the electorate that will vote for them. Jezza, if he refuses an election on Monday, will be satisfying his electorate, his people.
Opinion polls describing what "the people" want Brexit-wise are for direct democracy. But we are now back in the world of parliamentary democracy.
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats
What are you going to do about the Brexit Party splitting the vote?
If Labour think the PM is a "liar" then why risk him breaking the law on the 17th when he can be defeated in a GE possibly on the 15th ?
Completely. If they want to stop no deal they simply beat him in an election. They look ridiculous backing away now.
I dont think looking ridiculous is particularly a concern for MPs at the moment
Very true. The good news for Boris is potentially he could get the sort of numbers May got in 2017 and still pass 'no deal' given the change in make-up of his parliamentary party. At least if he had the support of the DUP. If he surpasses May's performance then he will almost certainly manage it, and I guess he must have the belief he can win 330 seats somehow.
No Deal is the Start of twenty more years of never-ending Brexit. Except you'll be without a job, unable to afford a holiday, and the migrants working in your care home will be from India and Africa, not Eastern Europe.
How did I do?
Even thd Bank of England halved the forecast fall in growth from No Deal yesterday and leaving the Single Market ensures free movement from the EU ends and a points system can be applied to both EU and non EU migrants
I'm not sure -8% to -5.5% counts as halving.
I'm also not sure that the demand will be there from Eastern Europe; why relocate to a country where there are fewer and less well paid opportunities than your own?
I'm glad you accept we've got decades more of Sisyphean labour on trade negotiations.
i) Offer 15th as GE date to Corbyn ii) After Corbyn refuses, resign as PM. iii) Corbyn says he can command the Commons. He can't but is installed as PM. Corbyn QS fails, loses VONC after whip reinstated to some of the rebels by Johnson (Those that are clearly standing down) iv) Election but with Corbyn as PM and him signing the letter.
For the first time my social media has quite a bit of politics on it. Pictures of Guy Fawkes ("i hear you need me back"), posts about how scientists have proved that "voting is a F*cking waste of time"), a mock-up of that Olympic opening ceremony scene with the Queen telling 007 to get rid of the whole of parliament ("Yes 007 - all of them") etc etc
Rock and a hard place. if remainers get their way, leavers will not be happy. An utter mess
Corbyn is a crap leader with some rather unpleasant views, but compared to Johnson, he'd seem like Clement Attlee or Blair in his heyday. And for all his faults, he does at seem at least to be motivated by wanting to do good by the country, which really cannot be said of No10's current incumbent. So like Jonathan, I heartily welcome PM Corbyn, even though I'd probably regard his premiership as not being a good thing for the country in more normal times.
What utter crap.
Corbyn has done nothing but put his own interests ahead of the country's ever since he voted 3 times against the Withdrawal Agreement despite agreeing with most of it purely to divide the Tories (even Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3).
But No Deal is now a reality and the vast majority of Tory MPs bar the 21 just put party before country.
As fortune would have it Jezza was there to save the day from the wreckers.
Nope, most voters opposed extension with Survation and Yougov this week, Corbyn is denying the will of the people and the people will get their revenge
Morning me old mucker. I don't think Jezza will mind that too much. As we have rehearsed on here many times at a GE the government is elected on 30-odd percent of the vote. Hence at any one time the will of the people is against the government. The only people that matter to any party is the 30-40% of the electorate that will vote for them. Jezza, if he refuses an election on Monday, will be satisfying his electorate, his people.
Opinion polls describing what "the people" want Brexit-wise are for direct democracy. But we are now back in the world of parliamentary democracy.
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats
What are you going to do about the Brexit Party splitting the vote?
Could also ask what are you gonna do about the Lib Dems splitting the vote...
Off topic, I've just finished reading "All Together Now?" By Mick Carter, an account of his walk from Liverpool to London in the Spring of 2016, retracing the 1981 People's March for Jobs. His father, a communist trade union leader, organised the first march, and the book is in part a kind of reconciliation with him (the two men were estranged when his father died after a lot of tangled and quite sad family history). But more than that it is an insightful account of the sorry state of ”left behind" England - the towns of the North and Midlands that voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU just weeks later. As a fully signed up member of the Remoaner London Liberal Elite it was a sobering read. It touched on many of the issues raised by people like John Harris at the Guardian in his "Anywhere but Westminster" reports, for instance. You are left in no doubt that something close to abuse has been perpetrated on these communities since the mid 1970s. Now I don't think leaving the EU will help these places much - in fact I think on net it will leave them even worse off, which is why I am against it, especially a hard Brexit. But I do think that a radical change in how we organise and prioritise things in this country is long overdue. It actually left me, normally a centrist dad, wondering whether a dose of Corbynism may be what we need. Anyway, we can't go on as before.
If you haven't read it already, could I recommend Dreams Of Leaving and Remaining by James Meek, a collection of his essays on Brexit and left behind places & people. He manages to actually listen to people, a less commonly held talent than one might think. His essay in the LRB (written a year before the EU referendum) on Grimsby is a good taster.
I do not see Labour supporting a GE before the 31st Oct, I think the plan is to give Johnson enough rope to hang himself with and call a GE once the honeymoon period is over, and Farage can savage Johnson for not leaving "do or die".
I think any election will produce the Conservatives as the largest party, as Labour cannot make gains in England or Scotland. That being said, I do not see how the Conservatives can govern without a majority. SNP and LDs cannot afford to be seen to prop up Johnson or any Conservative at this point.
Corbyn will promise the SNP and LDs the indyref 2 and the 2nd vote, but will campaign both for Scotland Remaining and Britain Leaving (but with Labours deal and a remain option). He will probably win Scotland and lose Brexit, which probably suits him fine as he can get on with his domestic agenda after that.
In what world do you see anything that would mean Corbyn could even register in Scotland never mind win it.
Sorry, by win Scotland I meant the referendum, not the parliamentary seats.
Still not sure what you mean about Corbyn winning in Scotland but on Corbyn agreeing a Ref 2 he has said quite categorically he will not support it for at least for some years to come
I mean I think Scotland will be in a much more likely place to stay in the union with a Labour led government than a Tory one. Corbyn doesn't have to be popular as an individual, but Labour's policies will be more popular north of the border. Sure, many independent minded people will still want independence, but the argument that "Scotland is shackled to a Tory government only the English want" is less of an immediate argument when there is no Tory government. I also don't think many Scottish Conservatives would be willing to split up the union just to escape Corbyn.
We have been shafted by many Labour governments as well, they talk big in opposition but do nothing for Scotland when in power. They are little better than Tories. The SNP have improved things greatly since they beat Labour 12 years ago and are still getting more popular. I just cannot see people being deluded back to Labour given the state of the idiots in their regional office and the donkeys at Westminster.
It doesn't need many to feel happier under Labour than Tories to prevent a majority vote for IndyRef
For the first time my social media has quite a bit of politics on it. Pictures of Guy Fawkes ("i hear you need me back"), posts about how scientists have proved that "voting is a F*cking waste of time"), a mock-up of that Olympic opening ceremony scene with the Queen telling 007 to get rid of the whole of parliament ("Yes 007 - all of them") etc etc
Rock and a hard place. if remainers get their way, leavers will not be happy. An utter mess
Oh David Cameron what have you done...
Some of my family members are angrier - politically - than I have ever seen.
Corbyn is a crap leader with some rather unpleasant views, but compared to Johnson, he'd seem like Clement Attlee or Blair in his heyday. And for all his faults, he does at seem at least to be motivated by wanting to do good by the country, which really cannot be said of No10's current incumbent. So like Jonathan, I heartily welcome PM Corbyn, even though I'd probably regard his premiership as not being a good thing for the country in more normal times.
What utter crap.
Corbyn has done nothing but put his own interests ahead of the country's ever since he voted 3 times against the Withdrawal Agreement despite agreeing with most of it purely to divide the Tories (even Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3).
But No Deal is now a reality and the vast majority of Tory MPs bar the 21 just put party before country.
As fortune would have it Jezza was there to save the day from the wreckers.
Nope, most voters opposed extension with Survation and Yougov this week, Corbyn is denying the will of the people and the people will get their revenge
Morning me old mucker. I don't think Jezza will mind that too much. As we have rehearsed on here many times at a GE the government is elected on 30-odd percent of the vote. Hence at any one time the will of the people is against the government. The only people that matter to any party is the 30-40% of the electorate that will vote for them. Jezza, if he refuses an election on Monday, will be satisfying his electorate, his people.
Opinion polls describing what "the people" want Brexit-wise are for direct democracy. But we are now back in the world of parliamentary democracy.
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats
What are you going to do about the Brexit Party splitting the vote?
Could also ask what are you gonna do about the Lib Dems splitting the vote...
Jo Swinson has said the LDs are open to standing aside in certain seats. I doubt the tories are.
Corbyn is a crap leader with some rather unpleasant views, but compared to Johnson, he'd seem like Clement Attlee or Blair in his heyday. And for all his faults, he does at seem at least to be motivated by wanting to do good by the country, which really cannot be said of No10's current incumbent. So like Jonathan, I heartily welcome PM Corbyn, even though I'd probably regard his premiership as not being a good thing for the country in more normal times.
What utter crap.
Corbyn has done nothing but put his own interests ahead of the country's ever since he voted 3 times against the Withdrawal Agreement despite agreeing with most of it purely to divide the Tories (even Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3).
But No Deal is now a reality and the vast majority of Tory MPs bar the 21 just put party before country.
As fortune would have it Jezza was there to save the day from the wreckers.
Nope, most voters opposed extension with Survation and Yougov this week, Corbyn is denying the will of the people and the people will get their revenge
Morning me old mucker. I don't think Jezza will mind that too much. As we have rehearsed on here many times at a GE the government is elected on 30-odd percent of the vote. Hence at any one time the will of the people is against the government. The only people that matter to any party is the 30-40% of the electorate that will vote for them. Jezza, if he refuses an election on Monday, will be satisfying his electorate, his people.
Opinion polls describing what "the people" want Brexit-wise are for direct democracy. But we are now back in the world of parliamentary democracy.
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats
The premise is that Labour voters in northern seats will make Brexit a more defining issue than their hitherto party loyalty. Leaving aside your and my expertise in the psychology of northern Labour seats and voters, it is an attractive and logical idea. But it cannot be tested short of a GE and it is a big gamble for Boris to hope that such Labour voters will put aside their loyalty and vote Cons.
Plus if they are so minded, why not TBP? After all, priority-wise, they don't want a Conservative government, they want Brexit.
For the first time my social media has quite a bit of politics on it. Pictures of Guy Fawkes ("i hear you need me back"), posts about how scientists have proved that "voting is a F*cking waste of time"), a mock-up of that Olympic opening ceremony scene with the Queen telling 007 to get rid of the whole of parliament ("Yes 007 - all of them") etc etc
Rock and a hard place. if remainers get their way, leavers will not be happy. An utter mess
Oh David Cameron what have you done...
I mentioned that last night. My Facebook feed is normally pictures of my friends children, or holiday selfies. Never politics. It dominates at the moment.
The public is watching and the public is not entirely happy to say the least. The idea Parliament can play games with this and the public won't realise what they are doing is not clever to say the least. The public aren't gullible fools.
That's why I think the idea that if Remainers avoid an election until November the idea Leavers will blame Boris is absurd. Its like England coming up with a bowling attack today to get rid of Steve Smith which is simply "pitch it up at leg stump and when it hits the pads it will be LBW first ball, job done". Err no, Smith knows how to handle his bat, there's more than just one party involved.
This is the first time I have seen Farage demands for him to stand down TBP in conservative seats.
It looks as if we may be moving to a Boris-Farage agreement !!!!
I think that would likely end in tears for the Conservatives; some who aren't quite baulking at the kicking out of Ken Clarke will baulk at a Farage pact. I also think some (not many, but when you have no MPs every vote counts) BXP voters would go back to UKIP in that event, and if UKIP can stand in enough seats, that might be enough to prevent BXP winning some places.
A Tory Brexit pact would make the next election very clear cut.
The Tories would be looking for a lot of new candidates if that happened.
For the first time my social media has quite a bit of politics on it. Pictures of Guy Fawkes ("i hear you need me back"), posts about how scientists have proved that "voting is a F*cking waste of time"), a mock-up of that Olympic opening ceremony scene with the Queen telling 007 to get rid of the whole of parliament ("Yes 007 - all of them") etc etc
Rock and a hard place. if remainers get their way, leavers will not be happy. An utter mess
Oh David Cameron what have you done...
Some of my family members are angrier - politically - than I have ever seen.
How many journalists based in Brussels will lose their jobs if/when Brexit?
How many experts in EU law? How many EU-oriented civil servants? How many academics, technocrats, pundits, thinkers, specializing in EU/UK matters?
A few will cling on. But most will go. Many thousands. It will be like the Dissolution of the Monasteries.
You're kidding, right? All of a sudden "trade deals" will be the new rock n' roll with intense scrutiny by the likes of you and me whereas hitherto no one could give a stuff about East Coast Scottish fishermen; after Brexit we will be negotiating a trade deal with the EU for the next 20 years. It's a job for life.
i) Offer 15th as GE date to Corbyn ii) After Corbyn refuses, resign as PM. iii) Corbyn says he can command the Commons. He can't but is installed as PM. Corbyn QS fails, loses VONC after whip reinstated to some of the rebels by Johnson (Those that are clearly standing down) iv) Election but with Corbyn as PM and him signing the letter.
Corbyn would not be able to demonstrate the confidence of the house, there arent the numbers for him. The 21 will abstain at best leaving just 7 needed to join Tories and DUP against him - the change party and former change indies are enough before we look at elphicke, mann, Austin, hoey etc The SNP want an election and would therefore demand a high price to support ditto Swinson There is no PM corbyn this side of an election
Mr. Anabobazina, 'real' boundaries are contentious for any city. Manchester and Birmingham are indeed bigger [I'm not sure why you felt the need to include London given it's far and away the largest city].
As for Liverpool and Glasgow, Wikipedia indicates city populations of under half a million and a little over 600,000 respectively, with Leeds close to 800,000.
Mr. Anabobazina, 'real' boundaries are contentious for any city. Manchester and Birmingham are indeed bigger [I'm not sure why you felt the need to include London given it's far and away the largest city].
As for Liverpool and Glasgow, Wikipedia indicates city populations of under half a million and a little over 600,000 respectively, with Leeds close to 800,000.
Mr. Anabobazina, 'real' boundaries are contentious for any city. Manchester and Birmingham are indeed bigger [I'm not sure why you felt the need to include London given it's far and away the largest city].
As for Liverpool and Glasgow, Wikipedia indicates city populations of under half a million and a little over 600,000 respectively, with Leeds close to 800,000.
No Deal is the Start of twenty more years of never-ending Brexit. Except you'll be without a job, unable to afford a holiday, and the migrants working in your care home will be from India and Africa, not Eastern Europe.
How did I do?
Even thd Bank of England halved the forecast fall in growth from No Deal yesterday and leaving the Single Market ensures free movement from the EU ends and a points system can be applied to both EU and non EU migrants
Then the Home Office better start developing one that works then because the current points based system is a farce, run into the ground by Tory incompetence. Extending it to people from the EU will precipitate its collapse. Without reform there will be hardly any immigration at all and that reform will not happen before 31 October. "Global Britain". Heh.
How many journalists based in Brussels will lose their jobs if/when Brexit?
How many experts in EU law? How many EU-oriented civil servants? How many academics, experts, pundits, thinkers, specializing in EU/UK matters?
A few will cling on. But most will go. Many thousands. It will be like the Dissolution of the Monasteries.
If anything it will become more lucrative as our relationship with the EU becomes much more bureaucratic.
It's bizarre that anyone would think otherwise. Brexit (if it happens) will be an absolute field-day (or rather decade) for lawyers and civil servants.
How many journalists based in Brussels will lose their jobs if/when Brexit?
How many experts in EU law? How many EU-oriented civil servants? How many academics, technocrats, pundits, thinkers, specializing in EU/UK matters?
A few will cling on. But most will go. Many thousands. It will be like the Dissolution of the Monasteries.
You're kidding, right? All of a sudden "trade deals" will be the new rock n' roll with intense scrutiny by the likes of you and me whereas hitherto we couldn't give a stuff about East Coast Scottish fishermen and after Brexit we will be negotiating one with the EU for the next 20 years. It's a job for life.
No. It will be very niche stuff for trade experts and a few lawyers. The rest - the entire Apparat, a whole clerisy - will be dissolved. It will be poignant. In a few centuries we wil; stroll around the bare ruined choirs of the LSE’s EU law department as today we admire the dilapidations of Tintern and Rievaulx.
For the first time my social media has quite a bit of politics on it. Pictures of Guy Fawkes ("i hear you need me back"), posts about how scientists have proved that "voting is a F*cking waste of time"), a mock-up of that Olympic opening ceremony scene with the Queen telling 007 to get rid of the whole of parliament ("Yes 007 - all of them") etc etc
Rock and a hard place. if remainers get their way, leavers will not be happy. An utter mess
Oh David Cameron what have you done...
Some of my family members are angrier - politically - than I have ever seen.
i) Offer 15th as GE date to Corbyn ii) After Corbyn refuses, resign as PM. iii) Corbyn says he can command the Commons. He can't but is installed as PM. Corbyn QS fails, loses VONC after whip reinstated to some of the rebels by Johnson (Those that are clearly standing down) iv) Election but with Corbyn as PM and him signing the letter.
Corbyn would not be able to demonstrate the confidence of the house, there arent the numbers for him. The 21 will abstain at best leaving just 7 needed to join Tories and DUP against him - the change party and former change indies are enough before we look at elphicke, mann, Austin, hoey etc The SNP want an election and would therefore demand a high price to support ditto Swinson There is no PM corbyn this side of an election
Johnson hasn't won a single vote as regards to his confidence yet. None has been held. If Johnson resigns it is constitutionally proper Corbyn is called to be the PM I think. That he can't command the Commons is neither here nor there for kissing hands I think.
The SNP has used exactly the same word Corbyn used. They will back an election. You can back, i.e. support an election for 7 days. Then, you vote for it. SNP also backs Remaining in the EU.
Can anyone tell me if things are likely to improve here when the schools go back?
Gin was once a good poster.
Now he has followed the TGOHF, Mortimer tradition of making bullish forecasts to wind up his opponents then denying them or running away when they invariably turn out to be wrong.
Sad.
Reeeeee - lets hound Brexiteers off PB so it can be more like my twitter feed...
Yes indeed, Leavers are fair game for personal attacks on this site.
It is noticable in polling that (supposedly tolerant, liberal) Remainers are particularly disdainful of Leavers, in that a substantial number would be concerned if their children married a supporter of Brexit. The same polling also confirms that that pattern is not reciprocated to anything like the same extent by Leavers.
Isn't it more likely that's because the typical leaver is portrayed as being aged 70+, and lots of people don't like the idea of their children marrying people much older than them?
No it’s because Remain voters believe they are morally superior to those who voted Leave
Any logic or evidence for that? or you just showing your own prejudices?
If this is really a thing then it is obvious what is happening. Some leavers imagine that the typical remainer is a member of the "metropolitan elite". They might not agree with their politics, but they wouldn't mind their children marrying a member of the metropolitan elite. It doesn't sound like too bad a life. Some remainers imagine that the typical leaver is old, uneducated and poor. They might think their children could do better.
Additionally, both leavers and remainers are likely to have more children who are very strong remainers than very strong leavers, and might think that their children would be better off with someone who doesn't have a completely different world view.
Polling and personal experience. What more do I need? Nice of you to assume prejudice, not entirely unpredictable
Corbyn is a crap leader with some rather unpleasant views, but compared to Johnson, he'd seem like Clement Attlee or Blair in his heyday. And for all his faults, he does at seem at least to be motivated by wanting to do good by the country, which really cannot be said of No10's current incumbent. So like Jonathan, I heartily welcome PM Corbyn, even though I'd probably regard his premiership as not being a good thing for the country in more normal times.
What utter crap.
Corbyn has done nothing but put his own interests ahead of the country's ever since he voted 3 times against the Withdrawal Agreement despite agreeing with most of it purely to divide the Tories (even Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3).
But No Deal is now a reality and the vast majority of Tory MPs bar the 21 just put party before country.
As fortune would have it Jezza was there to save the day from the wreckers.
Nope, most voters opposed extension with Survation and Yougov this week, Corbyn is denying the will of the people and the people will get their revenge
Morning me old mucker. I don't think Jezza will mind that too much. As we have rehearsed on here many times at a GE the government is elected on 30-odd percent of the vote. Hence at any one time the will of the people is against the government. The only people that matter to any party is the 30-40% of the electorate that will vote for them. Jezza, if he refuses an election on Monday, will be satisfying his electorate, his people.
Opinion polls describing what "the people" want Brexit-wise are for direct democracy. But we are now back in the world of parliamentary democracy.
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats
What are you going to do about the Brexit Party splitting the vote?
Could also ask what are you gonna do about the Lib Dems splitting the vote...
Jo Swinson has said the LDs are open to standing aside in certain seats. I doubt the tories are.
Maybe but if they fail to stand in every seat they'll get less press coverage so I somewhat doubt it. More likely they just won't campaign in those seats. Lots of Lib Dem voters would prefer Boris PM than Jezza PM as polls show.
Johnson hasn't won a single vote as regards to his confidence yet. None has been held. If Johnson resigns it is constitutionally proper Corbyn is called to be the PM I think. That he can't command the Commons is neither here nor there for kissing hands I think.
Alternatively since the reason Boris Johnson can't command a majority comes down to the actions of Boris Johnson, it might be appropriate to call another Tory, like Michael Gove or Theresa May.
Read a very interesting suggestion earlier today about how Boris can escape the box his opponents think they have him trapped in.
He should invoke the 2004 Civil Contingencies Act. He can do it unilaterally as a Minister of the Crown. He can then suspend the FTPA and call an election. He then cancels the CCA.
The CCA is one of the worst pieces of legislation ever created but since Blair was stupid enough to create it Boris should make use of it.
I doubt the courts would accept it.
If you look at the act they would have little choice but to accept it. All it takes is for a Minister to declare an emergency. Given how often Remainers keep telling us this is an emergency I think they would be hard pressed to then argue otherwise.
For the first time my social media has quite a bit of politics on it. Pictures of Guy Fawkes ("i hear you need me back"), posts about how scientists have proved that "voting is a F*cking waste of time"), a mock-up of that Olympic opening ceremony scene with the Queen telling 007 to get rid of the whole of parliament ("Yes 007 - all of them") etc etc
Rock and a hard place. if remainers get their way, leavers will not be happy. An utter mess
How many journalists based in Brussels will lose their jobs if/when Brexit?
How many experts in EU law? How many EU-oriented civil servants? How many academics, technocrats, pundits, thinkers, specializing in EU/UK matters?
A few will cling on. But most will go. Many thousands. It will be like the Dissolution of the Monasteries.
You're kidding, right? All of a sudden "trade deals" will be the new rock n' roll with intense scrutiny by the likes of you and me whereas hitherto we couldn't give a stuff about East Coast Scottish fishermen and after Brexit we will be negotiating one with the EU for the next 20 years. It's a job for life.
It will be very niche stuff for trade experts and a few lawyers. The rest - the entire Apparat, a whole clerisy - will be dissolved. It will be poignant. In a few centuries we wil; stroll around the bare ruined choirs of the LSE’s EU law department as today we admire the dilapidations of Tintern and Rievaulx.
You clearly have no conception of how the legal system works. We City lawyers are having to rush to get EU qualified (Ireland mostly) to be able to keep working post Brexit. EU law departments are, and will cotinue, to thrive. Law schools in London will soon be offering Irish qualifications in the same way they have been offering conversions to the New York and California Bars for many years. Some firms are opening offices in Dublin and shifting lawyers over there creating. Those who know of EU law will have a head start. The legal market is shifting out of London and ambitious lawyers will have to follow, just as before this suicidal farce began overseas lawyers aimed to come here.
Any election, deal, indyref or people's vote will be won on the very margins of established voting patterns. I think that whilst lots of politicians should worry about being "too clever by half" that FPTP is a fickle thing, and that even a 30-35% showing for the Conservatives is no guarantee of a majority in the House. Every little counts at the moment, and it is the Conservatives and Johnson committing unforced errors, not the LOTO and not the other opposition parties.
Wrong, wait for the weekend polls, Corbyn blocking Brexit will go down like a lead balloon with Labour Leave voters to the benefit of the Brexit Party and Tories
Well in the weird world of the offshore controlled far right press, who have pathetically been trying to spin the evisceration of this government as either a triumph for Johnson or simply a temporary setback due to the "cowardice of Corbyn" then this would indeed be a no brainer.
However, back in the real world, Johnson is a loser. The idea that Pontefract is going to vote for the posh boys sprawling over the Commons benches is laughably delusional. The hate that Johnson, Cummings and Rees Mogg inspire is now way beyond Corbyn's local difficulties.
The heart of the Conservative party has just been broken: you just lost every vote and even ended up expelling Churchill's grandson FFS!
The country is sick of this fiasco and the increasingly bitter irony of the fact that the whole thing was simply a ruse to try and unite the Conservatives is turning the sky black with chickens home to roost.
Johnson may think he can gain a victory even with 35% of the vote. but the truth is that even rather weak ambition is unlikely to be achieved. The anti-Tory tactical voting will be significant and the loses will cripple the party for a long time, maybe forever.
The SNP has used exactly the same word Corbyn used. They will back an election. You can back, i.e. support an election for 7 days. Then, you vote for it. SNP also backs Remaining in the EU.
His tweet clearly says force an election before prorogation, I.e. vote Monday
No Deal is the Start of twenty more years of never-ending Brexit. Except you'll be without a job, unable to afford a holiday, and the migrants working in your care home will be from India and Africa, not Eastern Europe.
How did I do?
Even thd Bank of England halved the forecast fall in growth from No Deal yesterday and leaving the Single Market ensures free movement from the EU ends and a points system can be applied to both EU and non EU migrants
Then the Home Office better start developing one that works then because the current points based system is a farce, run into the ground by Tory incompetence. Extending it to people from the EU will precipitate its collapse. Without reform there will be hardly any immigration at all and that reform will not happen before 31 October. "Global Britain". Heh.
------------------
On the points system, like many things it sounds a good idea in theory but not sure it works for our current situation.
We seem to need nurses, doctors, casual farm workers, carers, hospitality workers. In addition we claim to want to attract the brightest and best talent to work in science, finance, engineering, manufacturing.
How do you score points that cover those very different areas, that dont make the points system meaningless?
Perhaps Visa's that allow work in particular regions or occupations but not others would be better, but then what are the chances of the govt bureaucracy getting these things right.
Read a very interesting suggestion earlier today about how Boris can escape the box his opponents think they have him trapped in.
He should invoke the 2004 Civil Contingencies Act. He can do it unilaterally as a Minister of the Crown. He can then suspend the FTPA and call an election. He then cancels the CCA.
The CCA is one of the worst pieces of legislation ever created but since Blair was stupid enough to create it Boris should make use of it.
Won't that make him more despised than he already is?
By giving people an election? I doubt it. The only ones who would be upset are the opposition MPs who are looking to trap him in office for their own political ends.
The SNP has used exactly the same word Corbyn used. They will back an election. You can back, i.e. support an election for 7 days. Then, you vote for it. SNP also backs Remaining in the EU.
His tweet clearly says force an election before prorogation, I.e. vote Monday
That doesn't necessarily mean backing Boris's date. They can propose an amendment to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act setting the date as November, December or January.
Corbyn is a crap leader with some rather unpleasant views, but compared to Johnson, he'd seem like Clement Attlee or Blair in his heyday. And for all his faults, he does at seem at least to be motivated by wanting to do good by the country, which really cannot be said of No10's current incumbent. So like Jonathan, I heartily welcome PM Corbyn, even though I'd probably regard his premiership as not being a good thing for the country in more normal times.
But No Deal is now a reality and the vast majority of Tory MPs bar the 21 just put party before country.
As fortune would have it Jezza was there to save the day from the wreckers.
Nope, most voters opposed extension with Survation and Yougov this week, Corbyn is denying the will of the people and the people will get their revenge
Morning me old mucker. I don't think Jezza will mind that too much. As we have rehearsed on here many times at a GE the government is elected on 30-odd percent of the vote. Hence at any one time the will of the people is against the government. The only people that matter to any party is the 30-40% of the electorate that will vote for them. Jezza, if he refuses an election on Monday, will be satisfying his electorate, his people.
Opinion polls describing what "the people" want Brexit-wise are for direct democracy. But we are now back in the world of parliamentary democracy.
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats
The premise is that Labour voters in northern seats will make Brexit a more defining issue than their hitherto party loyalty. Leaving aside your and my expertise in the psychology of northern Labour seats and voters, it is an attractive and logical idea. But it cannot be tested short of a GE and it is a big gamble for Boris to hope that such Labour voters will put aside their loyalty and vote Cons.
Plus if they are so minded, why not TBP? After all, priority-wise, they don't want a Conservative government, they want Brexit.
There is no proof that Northern Labour voters are overwhelmingly Leave. Let's say a Northern seat voted 55% Labour and also 55% Leave. It does not follow that they are all Leavers. Barring a few Lib Dems, most of the other 45% probably are Leavers. You will find, probably, a fourth of Labour voters in the North are Leavers. Probably, less so now.
It's only 15% for a Tory leadership challenge, and that's now 15% of a smaller number. If Boris plans to reorient the Conservative Party away from where they currently have MPs to a bunch of new Labour-held seats where some other lucky person is going to be the MP, shouldn't we expect a leadership challenge from the people currently holding the wooden spoon?
The SNP has used exactly the same word Corbyn used. They will back an election. You can back, i.e. support an election for 7 days. Then, you vote for it. SNP also backs Remaining in the EU.
His tweet clearly says force an election before prorogation, I.e. vote Monday
That doesn't necessarily mean backing Boris's date. They can propose an amendment to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act setting the date as November, December or January.
Obviously they will agree a date with the Tories to ensure they both get what they want, an SNP amendment on it's own goes nowhere
I’m not sure. Allow me to present this scenario. Chicken pops off fence and says okay, bo, let’s go GE, and walks with Boris into the lobby, his 3 line whips whipping away.
Just because corbyn walks through doesn’t mean they all follow. How many labour rebels would it take to block the election, merely by staying in the pub?
Where would the paper headlines go then, he’s no longer frit just can’t get all his MPs into the lobby?
It's only 15% for a Tory leadership challenge, and that's now 15% of a smaller number. If Boris plans to reorient the Conservative Party away from where they currently have MPs to a bunch of new Labour-held seats where some other lucky person is going to be the MP, shouldn't we expect a leadership challenge from the people currently holding the wooden spoon?
2 months after 2/3 of the party voted him in and 10% ahead in the polls? Not a chance
Corbyn is a crap leader with some rather unpleasant views, but compared to Johnson, he'd seem like Clement Attlee or Blair in being a good thing for the country in more normal times.
But No Deal is now a reality and the vast majority of Tory MPs bar the 21 just put party before country.
As fortune would have it Jezza was there to save the day from the wreckers.
Nope, most voters opposed extension with Survation and Yougov this week, Corbyn is denying the will of the people and the people will get their revenge
Morning me old mucker. I don't think Jezza will mind that too much. As we have rehearsed on here many times at a GE the government is elected on 30-odd percent of the vote. Hence at any one time the will of the people is against the government. The only people that matter to any party is the 30-40% of the electorate that will vote for them. Jezza, if he refuses an election on Monday, will be satisfying his electorate, his people.
Opinion polls describing what "the people" want Brexit-wise are for direct democracy. But we are now back in the world of parliamentary democracy.
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats
The premise is that Labour voters in northern seats will make Brexit a more defining issue than their hitherto party loyalty. Leaving aside your and my expertise in the psychology of northern Labour seats and voters, it is an attractive and logical idea. But it cannot be tested short of a GE and it is a big gamble for Boris to hope that such Labour voters will put aside their loyalty and vote Cons.
Plus if they are so minded, why not TBP? After all, priority-wise, they don't want a Conservative government, they want Brexit.
There is no proof that Northern Labour voters are overwhelmingly Leave. Let's say a Northern seat voted 55% Labour and also 55% Leave. It does not follow that they are all Leavers. Barring a few Lib Dems, most of the other 45% probably are Leavers. You will find, probably, a fourth of Labour voters in the North are Leavers. Probably, less so now.
Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats
Nicola playing a very crafty game keeping everyone waiting to see which way she'll jump.
Personally I think she'll go for 15th October once the bill is passed tomorrows as she can say she's made sure NO DEAL doesn't happen on 31st October AND she's dragging cowardly Corbyn kicking and screaming to the polls so Scots now have the opportunity to kick Lab and Con out of Scotland once and for all.
Corbyn is a crap leader with some rather unpleasant views, but compared to Johnson, he'd seem like Clement Attlee or Blair in his heyday. And for all his faults, he does at seem at least to be motivated by wanting to do good by the country, which really cannot be said of No10's current incumbent. So like Jonathan, I heartily welcome PM Corbyn, even though I'd probably regard his premiership as not being a good thing for the country in more normal times.
What utter crap.
Corbyn has done nothing but put his own interests ahead of the country's ever since he voted 3 times against the Withdrawal Agreement despite agreeing with most of it purely to divide the Tories (even Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3).
But No Deal is now a reality and the vast majority of Tory MPs bar the 21 just put party before country.
As fortune would have it Jezza was there to save the day from the wreckers.
Nope, most voters opposed extension with Survation and Yougov this week, Corbyn is denying the will of the people and the people will get their revenge
Morning me old mucker. I don't think Jezza will mind that too much. As we have rehearsed on here many times at a GE the government is elected on 30-odd percent of the vote. Hence at any one time the will of the people is against the government. The only people that matter to any party is the 30-40% of the electorate that will vote for them. Jezza, if he refuses an election on Monday, will be satisfying his electorate, his people.
Opinion polls describing what "the people" want Brexit-wise are for direct democracy. But we are now back in the world of parliamentary democracy.
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats
What are you going to do about the Brexit Party splitting the vote?
The Brexit Party splitting the Labour Leave vote in Labour Leave seats fine by me while the LDs split the Labour Remain vote fine by me.
The Tory to Brexit Party vote has halved since May left
Comments
Nope, more than 50% of the population are stupider than the average person.
The good news for Boris is potentially he could get the sort of numbers May got in 2017 and still pass 'no deal' given the change in make-up of his parliamentary party. At least if he had the support of the DUP. If he surpasses May's performance then he will almost certainly manage it, and I guess he must have the belief he can win 330 seats somehow.
I'm not sure -8% to -5.5% counts as halving.
I'm also not sure that the demand will be there from Eastern Europe; why relocate to a country where there are fewer and less well paid opportunities than your own?
I'm glad you accept we've got decades more of Sisyphean labour on trade negotiations.
How many experts in EU law? How many EU-oriented civil servants? How many academics, technocrats, pundits, thinkers, specializing in EU/UK matters?
A few will cling on. But most will go. Many thousands. It will be like the Dissolution of the Monasteries.
i) Offer 15th as GE date to Corbyn
ii) After Corbyn refuses, resign as PM.
iii) Corbyn says he can command the Commons. He can't but is installed as PM. Corbyn QS fails, loses VONC after whip reinstated to some of the rebels by Johnson (Those that are clearly standing down)
iv) Election but with Corbyn as PM and him signing the letter.
Rock and a hard place. if remainers get their way, leavers will not be happy. An utter mess
Oh David Cameron what have you done...
https://twitter.com/emmabowds/status/1169549226617004033?s=21
That's the campaign slogan after Nov 1st...
Plus if they are so minded, why not TBP? After all, priority-wise, they don't want a Conservative government, they want Brexit.
The public is watching and the public is not entirely happy to say the least. The idea Parliament can play games with this and the public won't realise what they are doing is not clever to say the least. The public aren't gullible fools.
That's why I think the idea that if Remainers avoid an election until November the idea Leavers will blame Boris is absurd. Its like England coming up with a bowling attack today to get rid of Steve Smith which is simply "pitch it up at leg stump and when it hits the pads it will be LBW first ball, job done". Err no, Smith knows how to handle his bat, there's more than just one party involved.
Classic Dom.
https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/1169550533767520257?s=21
The SNP want an election and would therefore demand a high price to support ditto Swinson
There is no PM corbyn this side of an election
https://www.citymetric.com/skylines/where-are-largest-cities-britain-1404
Primary urban areas, UK.
1. London – 9,750,500
2. Birmingham – 2,453,700
3. Manchester – 1,903,100
4. Glasgow – 1,057,600
5. Newcastle – 837,500
6. Sheffield – 818,800
7. Liverpool – 793,100
8. Leeds – 761,500
9. Bristol – 706,600
10. Belfast – 675,600
The SNP hold the key to this don't they.
Then the Home Office better start developing one that works then because the current points based system is a farce, run into the ground by Tory incompetence. Extending it to people from the EU will precipitate its collapse. Without reform there will be hardly any immigration at all and that reform will not happen before 31 October. "Global Britain". Heh.
No. They’re not. That’s why it’s so striking.
That he can't command the Commons is neither here nor there for kissing hands I think.
SNP also backs Remaining in the EU.
What will Boris "Under no circumstances will I ask for an extension" do?
Surely, he has to resign as PM? Then what?
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1169547986382270464
However, back in the real world, Johnson is a loser. The idea that Pontefract is going to vote for the posh boys sprawling over the Commons benches is laughably delusional. The hate that Johnson, Cummings and Rees Mogg inspire is now way beyond Corbyn's local difficulties.
The heart of the Conservative party has just been broken: you just lost every vote and even ended up expelling Churchill's grandson FFS!
The country is sick of this fiasco and the increasingly bitter irony of the fact that the whole thing was simply a ruse to try and unite the Conservatives is turning the sky black with chickens home to roost.
Johnson may think he can gain a victory even with 35% of the vote. but the truth is that even rather weak ambition is unlikely to be achieved. The anti-Tory tactical voting will be significant and the loses will cripple the party for a long time, maybe forever.
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On the points system, like many things it sounds a good idea in theory but not sure it works for our current situation.
We seem to need nurses, doctors, casual farm workers, carers, hospitality workers. In addition we claim to want to attract the brightest and best talent to work in science, finance, engineering, manufacturing.
How do you score points that cover those very different areas, that dont make the points system meaningless?
Perhaps Visa's that allow work in particular regions or occupations but not others would be better, but then what are the chances of the govt bureaucracy getting these things right.
Just because corbyn walks through doesn’t mean they all follow. How many labour rebels would it take to block the election, merely by staying in the pub?
Where would the paper headlines go then, he’s no longer frit just can’t get all his MPs into the lobby?
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/09/real-question-brexit-asks-scotland-who-governs
Personally I think she'll go for 15th October once the bill is passed tomorrows as she can say she's made sure NO DEAL doesn't happen on 31st October AND she's dragging cowardly Corbyn kicking and screaming to the polls so Scots now have the opportunity to kick Lab and Con out of Scotland once and for all.
She's a smart operator.
https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1169490566171758592?s=20
Bercow could stop that as it’s already been voted on.
More likely the vote comes back in a different form using just a one line bill but that can be amended .
That could include amendments that would stop Bozo from using any royal perogative to change the date of the GE.
The likely outcome is the opposition agree to an election on Monday but kick the date into November .
This forces Bozo to break his Brexit promise .
The Tory to Brexit Party vote has halved since May left
https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008
Vote of confidence
Standing down in the National Interest