Any election, deal, indyref or people's vote will be won on the very margins of established voting patterns. I think that whilst lots of politicians should worry about being "too clever by half" that FPTP is a fickle thing, and that even a 30-35% showing for the Conservatives is no guarantee of a majority in the House. Every little counts at the moment, and it is the Conservatives and Johnson committing unforced errors, not the LOTO and not the other opposition parties.
Wrong, wait for the weekend polls, Corbyn blocking Brexit will go down like a lead balloon with Labour Leave voters to the benefit of the Brexit Party and Tories
Well in the weird world of the offshore controlled far right press, who have pathetically been trying to spin the evisceration of this government as either a triumph for Johnson or simply a temporary setback due to the "cowardice of Corbyn" then this would indeed be a no brainer.
However, back in the real world, Johnson is a loser. The idea that Pontefract is going to vote for the posh boys sprawling over the Commons benches is laughably delusional. The hate that Johnson, Cummings and Rees Mogg inspire is now way beyond Corbyn's local difficulties.
The heart of the Conservative party has just been broken: you just lost every vote and even ended up expelling Churchill's grandson FFS!
The country is sick of this fiasco and the increasingly bitter irony of the fact that the whole thing was simply a ruse to try and unite the Conservatives is turning the sky black with chickens home to roost.
Johnson may think he can gain a victory even with 35% of the vote. but the truth is that even rather weak ambition is unlikely to be achieved. The anti-Tory tactical voting will be significant and the loses will cripple the party for a long time, maybe forever.
Voters opposed further extension by 47% to 41% at the weekend, Corbyn defying the will of the people will lose further working class Voters to the Brexit Party and the Tories.
The loss of Labour Leave seats will cripple Labour for a long time, maybe forever
Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats
Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
Richard Tice makes Johnson look extremely pleasent too in comparison !
Ouch - Family parties are going to be fun in the future.
Taking a ministerial post under BroJo seemed a fairly weird choice (as did his being offered one in the first place), given he couldn't serve under TM as she was too leavey.
Not a biggie in the grand scheme, but HUGELY sub-optimal optics for BJ.
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
He gave a personal pledge that he would do it.
Ask Nick Clegg about personal pledges and the electorate.
Nicola playing a very crafty game keeping everyone waiting to see which way she'll jump.
Personally I think she'll go for 15th October once the bill is passed tomorrows as she can say she's made sure NO DEAL doesn't happen on 31st October AND she's dragging cowardly Corbyn kicking and screaming to the polls so Scots now have the opportunity to kick Lab and Con out of Scotland once and for all.
She's a smart operator.
Only Jezza has the GE key and Johnson the Jester and wee Jimmy Krankie can scream as loud as they want. November you cant trust Johnson GE it is.
Read a very interesting suggestion earlier today about how Boris can escape the box his opponents think they have him trapped in.
He should invoke the 2004 Civil Contingencies Act. He can do it unilaterally as a Minister of the Crown. He can then suspend the FTPA and call an election. He then cancels the CCA.
The CCA is one of the worst pieces of legislation ever created but since Blair was stupid enough to create it Boris should make use of it.
Won't that make him more despised than he already is?
The only ones who would be upset are the opposition MPs who are looking to trap him in office for their own political ends.
One of the unintentionally funniest lines on PB, ever.
I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
He gave a personal pledge that he would do it.
Ask Nick Clegg about personal pledges and the electorate.
The irony of the Nick Clegg one was that it was wished upon him by the leftish part of the Lib Dems - the Social and Liberal Democrat ginger group iirc.
Nope, more than 50% of the population are stupider than the average person.
Wrong. 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person.
Think he was right first time and 50% was low call
" 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person." is definitely right.
"more than 50% of the population are stupider than the mean person" is (probably) also right.
Average can be used to mean "mean" or "median".
I like the old chestnut "Most welshmen have more than the average number of legs".
I understand that but was jokingly saying that he was right that more than 50% of the population are stupid and that his number should have been higher. PS: the Welsh joke is amusing, if a bit harsh on Werlshmen
I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats
If a constituency voted 52% Leave and Labour won the seat with 48% in GE 2015/17. You could resonably conclude that most of Labour voters there voted remain.
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
He gave a personal pledge that he would do it.
Ask Nick Clegg about personal pledges and the electorate.
Totally different situation.
Clegg signed away his tuition fees pledge to get power. He sold the students down the river so he could form the coalition.
In this situation Boris has done everything possible to try to deliver Brexit on 31st October even to the point of throwing out Tory grandees and splitting his own family but Parliament has just totally been unreasonable.
Do you think Boris Johnson cares more about His Own Interest: 42 The National Interest: 21 The Conservative Party’s interest: 5 All of them equally: 16
I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.
It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
He gave a personal pledge that he would do it.
Ask Nick Clegg about personal pledges and the electorate.
The irony of the Nick Clegg one was that it was wished upon him by the leftish part of the Lib Dems - the Social and Liberal Democrat ginger group iirc.
As I've argued with Sandalistas many, many times. It's the SLF (Socialist Liberation Front) by the way :-)
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.
It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
While I tend to agree with you, it also ought to seek to retain those you refer to as 'sandalistas'. There are important issues (climate change and environment for example) which ought to unite all of the above.
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
He gave a personal pledge that he would do it.
Ask Nick Clegg about personal pledges and the electorate.
The irony of the Nick Clegg one was that it was wished upon him by the leftish part of the Lib Dems - the Social and Liberal Democrat ginger group iirc.
As I've argued with Sandalistas many, many times. It's the SLF (Socialist Liberation Front) by the way :-)
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.
Mr. Pointer, a bit like Pertinax, he's best known for the brevity of his reign. But Pertinax at least tried to diminish the authority of the Praetorians (did it a bit too much, perhaps).
Think I wrote a few days ago that the more the PM tightened his grip, the more MPs would slip through his fingers. Didn't expect it to happen to quite this extent.
I wonder if the PCP should ask Cameron to stand in Jo Johnson's current seat.
The real agenda on all sides is becoming very visibly exposed, that's good for clarity of choice at the upcoming election. Boris is having a bit of a mare though, he needs a win desperately
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
He gave a personal pledge that he would do it.
Ask Nick Clegg about personal pledges and the electorate.
Totally different situation.
Clegg signed away his tuition fees pledge to get power. He sold the students down the river so he could form the coalition.
In this situation Boris has done everything possible to try to deliver Brexit on 31st October even to the point of throwing out Tory grandees and splitting his own family but Parliament has just totally been unreasonable.
I suspect most Leave voters will be sympathetic.
Or ... they'll conclude he's played his hand very badly and promised something he was either (i) too incompetent to deliver or (ii) he knew he couldn't deliver and lied about being able to.
Mr. Pointer, a bit like Pertinax, he's best known for the brevity of his reign. But Pertinax at least tried to diminish the authority of the Praetorians (did it a bit too much, perhaps).
Think I wrote a few days ago that the more the PM tightened his grip, the more MPs would slip through his fingers. Didn't expect it to happen to quite this extent.
I wonder if the PCP should ask Cameron to stand in Jo Johnson's current seat.
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats
If a constituency voted 52% Leave and Labour won the seat with 48% in GE 2015/17. You could resonably conclude that most of Labour voters there voted remain.
So what, it only takes a few Labour Leavers there voting Tory or Brexit Party and the Tories take the seat
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.
How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.
Learn to read. I said almost 50%.
The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.
It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
While I tend to agree with you, it also ought to seek to retain those you refer to as 'sandalistas'. There are important issues (climate change and environment for example) which ought to unite all of the above.
The problem is that they aren't real Liberals; they're the socialist "Red Guard" tendency that joined when the party was largely moribund, because they thought the Labour Party was too establishment. They don't really believe in Liberalism.
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats
If a constituency voted 52% Leave and Labour won the seat with 48% in GE 2015/17. You could resonably conclude that most of Labour voters there voted remain.
So what, it only takes a few Labour Leavers there voting Tory or Brexit Party and the Tories take the seat
Do you think Boris Johnson cares more about His Own Interest: 42 The National Interest: 21 The Conservative Party’s interest: 5 All of them equally: 16
The real agenda on all sides is becoming very visibly exposed, that's good for clarity of choice at the upcoming election. Boris is having a bit of a mare though, he needs a win desperately
Where is he going to get one from - they isn't anything left in this session of Parliament that could vaguely look like a win.
And next he has to run a week of Queen's speech debates where everyone can attack all his plans before voting it down. Only after that can / will an election be called.
If Cummings wargamed this I dread to think who his opponent was - a dead sheep?
Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats
Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.
6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory with Yougov, 8% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Brexit Party, only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Labour.
Boris should strike a very loving and conciliatory tone when asked about Jo, I think there will be some sympathy for them both of they retain a very warm tone now the deed is dood A lot of laughing at him too, but some sympathy for family strains That might also help soothe some of the anger over the 21, if he can show hes not completely ruthless and cold
Nope, more than 50% of the population are stupider than the average person.
Wrong. 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person.
Think he was right first time and 50% was low call
" 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person." is definitely right.
"more than 50% of the population are stupider than the mean person" is (probably) also right.
Average can be used to mean "mean" or "median".
I like the old chestnut "Most welshmen have more than the average number of legs".
I understand that but was jokingly saying that he was right that more than 50% of the population are stupid and that his number should have been higher. PS: the Welsh joke is amusing, if a bit harsh on Welshmen
Equally true of Scotland, malcolm. Though it really ought be 'very, very, very slightly more than the average number of legs'. Not sure about the English - we may have more than our fair share of three legged oddities.
Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats
Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.
6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory with Yougov, 8% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Brexit Party, only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory.
The evidence is there
only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory - that's a frightening statistic
Comments
The loss of Labour Leave seats will cripple Labour for a long time, maybe forever
Worse probably
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
"more than 50% of the population are stupider than the mean person" is (probably) also right.
Average can be used to mean "mean" or "median".
I like the old chestnut "Most welshmen have more than the average number of legs".
EDIT Sorry I'm 8 minutes behind in this fast moving drama.
To
The filibuster would have succeeded if we’d let it.
Absolutely hilarious TBH.
Good grief. That is absolutely extraordinary.
Boris: too toxic even for his brother.
Fuck me.
Not a biggie in the grand scheme, but HUGELY sub-optimal optics for BJ.
Oh dear! What a shame.....
A 100% losing record in Commons votes.
Didn't have a majority and tossed 21 MPs overboard to show how 'tough' he is.
Now lost his own brother as an MP.
Vaguely reminds me of Didius Julianus.
Ask Nick Clegg about personal pledges and the electorate.
Safe as houses.
PS: the Welsh joke is amusing, if a bit harsh on Werlshmen
(Fortunately we live in less bloody times, though - resignation and ignomy will be enough for BoJo.)
Clegg signed away his tuition fees pledge to get power. He sold the students down the river so he could form the coalition.
In this situation Boris has done everything possible to try to deliver Brexit on 31st October even to the point of throwing out Tory grandees and splitting his own family but Parliament has just totally been unreasonable.
I suspect most Leave voters will be sympathetic.
His Own Interest: 42
The National Interest: 21
The Conservative Party’s interest: 5
All of them equally: 16
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jb2o1kckli/PVResults_190904_Snap_Final.pdf
Regional breakdowns do not bode well for “Boris will sweep the North”...
It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
It's chaotic, it's stupid, it's incompetent, it's ridiculous, it's hopeless, it's all collapsing.
And yet all the core messages to the target voters he needs are intact.
There are important issues (climate change and environment for example) which ought to unite all of the above.
Corbyn is also a far better campaigner than Hilary (Though would be a far far worse leader).
Think I wrote a few days ago that the more the PM tightened his grip, the more MPs would slip through his fingers. Didn't expect it to happen to quite this extent.
I wonder if the PCP should ask Cameron to stand in Jo Johnson's current seat.
Is: 21
Is Not: 53
The best way to settle Brexit is to leave I'd think is most people's choice
The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17881390.snp-must-put-scottish-independence-front-centre/
And next he has to run a week of Queen's speech debates where everyone can attack all his plans before voting it down. Only after that can / will an election be called.
If Cummings wargamed this I dread to think who his opponent was - a dead sheep?
The evidence is there
A lot of laughing at him too, but some sympathy for family strains
That might also help soothe some of the anger over the 21, if he can show hes not completely ruthless and cold
Though it really ought be 'very, very, very slightly more than the average number of legs'.
Not sure about the English - we may have more than our fair share of three legged oddities.