Surely Heidi Allen must be next in the drip drip drip of new Lib Dems
Allen seemed to be genuinely interested in staying independent to help coordinate cooperation between the different remain parties. With an extra clutch of Independent Conservatives she may feel she can do more good from a less partisan position than as a member of the Lib Dems - though of course the imminence of a general election may have an influence.
Why ? He doesn't want an election before 31st October.
A VONC doesn't necessarily lead to an election at all let alone before 31 Oct, but it does solve the problem of the Tories calling him frit. He could get into no10 to enact yesterdays Bill.
But what about the risk of it passing, no alternative government being found, and Boris calling an election for after Oct 31?
Boris will have to, by law, request an a50 extension because of the new Act.
He may. He may also attach conditions to any request.
I request an extension to Jan 31 2020, and Calais back.
I request an extension but I am afraid there is no budget for any contributions.
Or demand a rebate due to the effect of the EUs delay in agreeing an acceptable deal on the British taxpayer
Such a ridiculous post it's not even worth arguing with.
I heard that exchange. I smiled at the political double-speak. "We're doing it because we love the English so much." or words to that effect. Even a blind chimp would have laughed too.
Why ? He doesn't want an election before 31st October.
A VONC doesn't necessarily lead to an election at all let alone before 31 Oct, but it does solve the problem of the Tories calling him frit. He could get into no10 to enact yesterdays Bill.
Listening to JRM announcing the next attempt at the GE, Bercow was very relaxed and, believe it or not, there was a good humoured exchange between the two.
Labour did not object so Monday is decision time for Corbyn
Nope - Monday Corbyn says he wants a VONC.
That allows him to repeat during the election debate that Boris cannot be trusted.
Then on Tuesday we see how the VONC plays out and on Wednesday there can always be another election debate if Boris wins the VONC (he won't).
You seem very scared of a GE
Nope - I just want it after October 31st...
Edit to add - because Boris cannot be trusted.
If he can't be trusted then how can he be trusted to sign the letter before the 31st ?
Because if he doesn't sign the letter he might end up in jail?
There seems to be a bit of a move in Labour to want a GE after 31 October.
I think this is them pushing it a little bit too far. The delay for the passage of the Brexit Bill at least has the vague sense of arguability that they’re making sure Boris doesn’t push the GE date beyond Brexit. Any further delay is just obvious naked political advantage I don’t suspect it will go down very well. Besides, if it forces Boris to reluctantly ask for an extension he can say “look at what parliament made me do, I wanted an election.”
Boris asked for an election last night and last - I really don't think he can ask for another one a week after his previous request.
As soon as Parliament is prorogued the opposition can start asking for an election knowing that one cannot be called until about October 22nd due to the Queen's speech debate.
And when the election is called it will be after 5+ weeks of people all calling for an election with Boris unable to respond with one.
He got a very big majority for an election last night, not enough however under FTPA, he can argue there is a clear majority for an election (289 to 58)and propose an amendment to the FTPA Monday and labour have to actively block him, showing they are playing it for party mot country
Only because most people intentionally abstained as it needed 434 votes to be carried and there wasn't 434 MPs in the house.
But they did abstain and he did get a big majority of votes for it. If they abstain they are not against nor in favour, if they move from abstain to voting no they are actively blocking. Nobody is going to buy that it's for anything other than party advantage and 'screw the country/voters'. Its simply not a tenable position to be in favour of an election and vote against one
The complaint that Corbyn isn't allowing an election will be pathetic once Labour has voted for an election.
But it does affect his credibility. The opposition will be able to say that on his third day he offered Corbyn the chance of his long requested election which he refused. Now if that is to ensure that Brexit is delayed save for a Boris majority then that is reasonable. To refuse indefinitely after demanding one so often would colour all the other things that they say. Normally this would affect a leader rating but not sure it would with Corbyn after his previous issues.
As usual from Stephen Bush, this is good. I note that the Lib Dem PPC for Finchley & Golders Green has been enthusiastically tweeting about Berger's arrival this morning, which makes me wonder if it's already been squared off.
10% Tory poll lead some disaster, the Westminster commentariat so out of touch now it is beyond a joke
May I gently remind you of Mrs. May's polling lead prior to the last election.
You surely cannot deny that the last few days have been... sub-optimal for the Prime Minister ?
Wait until the weekend polls, then we will see what a 'disaster' it has been for Boris
Haven't you been saying for months now that the Tories would do badly in the next election if we're still in the EU after Oct 31st? Do you not believe that's the case any more, or do you think this week hasn't made that outcome any more likely?
Boris needs to go on TV each and every day and explain that Labour is forcing a post-31 October election precisely so that he has to sign a piece of paper surrendering Britain to the EU.
Boris: Well, here's that piece of paper [lifts up copy of extension agreement]. Vote for me on Nov 7 and this is what I'll do to it [rips up copy of extension agreement].
Rinse and repeat, cannibalize BXP, keep the voters who fear Corbyn more than Brexit. Profit!
"I said I didn't want No Deal Brexit and I also didn't want an election. Jeremy Corbyn is stopping me enacting No Deal Brexit and he is stoppi g me having an election.
The swine. Vote for me to get the two things I said I didn't want and that you, the public, also don't want. "
Why ? He doesn't want an election before 31st October.
A VONC doesn't necessarily lead to an election at all let alone before 31 Oct, but it does solve the problem of the Tories calling him frit. He could get into no10 to enact yesterdays Bill.
Listening to JRM announcing the next attempt at the GE, Bercow was very relaxed and, believe it or not, there was a good humoured exchange between the two.
Labour did not object so Monday is decision time for Corbyn
Nope - Monday Corbyn says he wants a VONC.
That allows him to repeat during the election debate that Boris cannot be trusted.
Then on Tuesday we see how the VONC plays out and on Wednesday there can always be another election debate if Boris wins the VONC (he won't).
You seem very scared of a GE
Because he knows commie Corbyn would get creamed.
I am "afraid" of a GE on Johnson's terms because it would benefit... Johnson. It is good politics to not allow him what he wants. A GE after 31st Oct is beneficial to every party leader not named Boris Johnson.
Thankyou , the real reason isn't that Johnson can't be trusted - it is the wish to either humiliate him by making him sign the letter, be forced to resign or break the law.
None of that answers why "Boris can be trusted" which will be the only way to silence "Boris can't be trusted"
Mentioned the JJ resignation to my other half. She didn't even know he had a brother who was an MP/minister. Just shrugged - "MPs!" All the same, I can't help thinking that as this is a family matter, and not just politics, it may well cut through to the "common reader".
For my money the person to watch is The Saj. I can't help thinking that the evident failure to bother cultivating him is pretty dangerous for Boris. A definite blind spot.
All the same, the overall short-term Boris strategy remains sound even if the execution is maladroit.
In the longer-term driving out a big slice of the Conservative coalition is extremely problematic. After the GE, a huge effort will be needed to repair the fabric of the Party as many middle-of-the-road sensible Tories will be very unsettled by a Party personified by Raab, Rees-Mogg and Patel.
Why ? He doesn't want an election before 31st October.
A VONC doesn't necessarily lead to an election at all let alone before 31 Oct, but it does solve the problem of the Tories calling him frit. He could get into no10 to enact yesterdays Bill.
No as Swinson would veto Corbyn as PM
That would send a lot of Lab -> Lib switchers back to Labour and help attract more potential Con -> Lib switchers.
Not how I see things - the Lab-> Lib switchers HATE Corbyn.
Much going on this morning? I only came on to get a cricket update....
Why ? He doesn't want an election before 31st October.
A VONC doesn't necessarily lead to an election at all let alone before 31 Oct, but it does solve the problem of the Tories calling him frit. He could get into no10 to enact yesterdays Bill.
But what about the risk of it passing, no alternative government being found, and Boris calling an election for after Oct 31?
Boris will have to, by law, request an a50 extension because of the new Act.
He may. He may also attach conditions to any request.
I request an extension to Jan 31 2020, and Calais back.
I request an extension but I am afraid there is no budget for any contributions.
Or demand a rebate due to the effect of the EUs delay in agreeing an acceptable deal on the British taxpayer
Such a ridiculous post it's not even worth arguing with.
Oh get a life. It's meant to be demonstrating that Johnson can find something unacceptable to the EU to attach to his mandated request for an extension to make them less likely to offer it. He doesn't want am extension and nor do the majority of voters according to polling. I'm not suggesting he actually demand Calais back ir a chest of rebate gold
10% Tory poll lead some disaster, the Westminster commentariat so out of touch now it is beyond a joke
May I gently remind you of Mrs. May's polling lead prior to the last election.
You surely cannot deny that the last few days have been... sub-optimal for the Prime Minister ?
Wait until the weekend polls, then we will see what a 'disaster' it has been for Boris
Haven't you been saying for months now that the Tories would do badly in the next election if we're still in the EU after Oct 31st? Do you not believe that's the case any more, or do you think this week hasn't made that outcome any more likely?
No, as Boris has voted against extension. Had he extended of his own free will it would have been a disaster but if Boris only extends as the law requires him to but still promises to Leave as soon as he gets the Tories a majority I doubt that affects his rating at all, in fact it probably boosts it further in opposition to diehard Remainer MPs
This is an outright lie. If the search facility on this forum was decent I would find the your posts. You clearly wrote, that if we had not Brexited by the 31st of October then tories would lose huge numbers of votes to the Brexit party.
No I said Boris must commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st which he has, the fact a majority of MPs led by Corbyn and diehard Remainers have voted against leaving on 31st October does not change the fact Boris has done exactly as he promised, though he could of course still ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill as a last resort or agree a technical solution for the Irish border on October 17th and see the Withdrawal Agreement then possibly passed.
All that matters is the image of Boris committed to delivering the will of the people and Corbyn and the LDs are not as the weekend polls will confirm. Unless Boris votes for extension which he has not he will keep gaining votes from the Brexit Party and Labour Leave voters while Labour Leave voters also shift to Farage
There seems to be a bit of a move in Labour to want a GE after 31 October.
I think this is them pushing it a little bit too far. The delay for the passage of the Brexit Bill at least has the vague sense of arguability that they’re making sure Boris doesn’t push the GE date beyond Brexit. Any further delay is just obvious naked political advantage I don’t suspect it will go down very well. Besides, if it forces Boris to reluctantly ask for an extension he can say “look at what parliament made me do, I wanted an election.”
Boris asked for an election last night and last - I really don't think he can ask for another one a week after his previous request.
As soon as Parliament is prorogued the opposition can start asking for an election knowing that one cannot be called until about October 22nd due to the Queen's speech debate.
And when the election is called it will be after 5+ weeks of people all calling for an election with Boris unable to respond with one.
He got a very big majority for an election last night, not enough however under FTPA, he can argue there is a clear majority for an election (289 to 58)and propose an amendment to the FTPA Monday and labour have to actively block him, showing they are playing it for party mot country
Only because most people intentionally abstained as it needed 434 votes to be carried and there wasn't 434 MPs in the house.
But they did abstain and he did get a big majority of votes for it. If they abstain they are not against nor in favour, if they move from abstain to voting no they are actively blocking. Nobody is going to buy that it's for anything other than party advantage and 'screw the country/voters'. Its simply not a tenable position to be in favour of an election and vote against one
The complaint that Corbyn isn't allowing an election will be pathetic once Labour has voted for an election.
But it does affect his credibility. The opposition will be able to say that on his third day he offered Corbyn the chance of his long requested election which he refused. Now if that is to ensure that Brexit is delayed save for a Boris majority then that is reasonable. To refuse indefinitely after demanding one so often would colour all the other things that they say. Normally this would affect a leader rating but not sure it would with Corbyn after his previous issues.
Arguing over an election during an election campaign will be a case of semantics no one cares about.
As usual from Stephen Bush, this is good. I note that the Lib Dem PPC for Finchley & Golders Green has been enthusiastically tweeting about Berger's arrival this morning, which makes me wonder if it's already been squared off.
JRM announces another attempt on a GE in the HOC on Monday
Can't Bercow refuse this?
I'm not sure he could. Its not a bill being brought back unaltered. Its a HoC vote for a GE. If he could/did, it would be politically 'brave'.
In any event, it will still need a 2/3rds majority, so Corbyn holds the power.
With respect Ben, the SNP hold the power. If they agree 15th October Corbyn will be snookered
How? Con + SNP doesn't = 2/3rds
It would be politically impossible for Corbyn to say no
I don't know, maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't.
Before this week I thought it would be politically impossible for Corbyn to reject an election at any time... but yesterday he came up with a good reason.
Why ? He doesn't want an election before 31st October.
A VONC doesn't necessarily lead to an election at all let alone before 31 Oct, but it does solve the problem of the Tories calling him frit. He could get into no10 to enact yesterdays Bill.
No as Swinson would veto Corbyn as PM
That would send a lot of Lab -> Lib switchers back to Labour and help attract more potential Con -> Lib switchers.
It wouldn't as Swinson would cleverly say she would vote for Harman or Ken Clarke as PM but would always vote against Corbyn as PM as she has done, thus keeping centrist Remainer Labour or Tory voters while ensuring Tory Remainers know the LDs will never allow Corbyn into No 10
There seems to be a bit of a move in Labour to want a GE after 31 October.
I think this is them pushing it a little bit too far. The delay for the passage of the Brexit Bill at least has the vague sense of arguability that they’re making sure Boris doesn’t push the GE date beyond Brexit. Any further delay is just obvious naked political advantage I don’t suspect it will go down very well. Besides, if it forces Boris to reluctantly ask for an extension he can say “look at what parliament made me do, I wanted an election.”
Boris asked for an election last night and last - I really don't think he can ask for another one a week after his previous request.
As soon as Parliament is prorogued the opposition can start asking for an election knowing that one cannot be called until about October 22nd due to the Queen's speech debate.
And when the election is called it will be after 5+ weeks of people all calling for an election with Boris unable to respond with one.
He got a very big majority for an election last night, not enough however under FTPA, he can argue there is a clear majority for an election (289 to 58)and propose an amendment to the FTPA Monday and labour have to actively block him, showing they are playing it for party mot country
Only because most people intentionally abstained as it needed 434 votes to be carried and there wasn't 434 MPs in the house.
But they did abstain and he did get a big majority of votes for it. If they abstain they are not against nor in favour, if they move from abstain to voting no they are actively blocking. Nobody is going to buy that it's for anything other than party advantage and 'screw the country/voters'. Its simply not a tenable position to be in favour of an election and vote against one
The complaint that Corbyn isn't allowing an election will be pathetic once Labour has voted for an election.
But it does affect his credibility. The opposition will be able to say that on his third day he offered Corbyn the chance of his long requested election which he refused. Now if that is to ensure that Brexit is delayed save for a Boris majority then that is reasonable. To refuse indefinitely after demanding one so often would colour all the other things that they say. Normally this would affect a leader rating but not sure it would with Corbyn after his previous issues.
I still maitain that your arguments, whether valid or not, will have zero effect on the election outcome.
Just looking at Liverpool Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been, though the LD did come a reasonably good second in both 2005 and 2010 (majorities of only 5k and 7k respectively for Labour). However, they've been pushed into fourth in 2015 and then third in 2017.
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
Their position is to secure an election before prorogation
Think that will change. Can't see them collaborating with Johnson.
They said this morning that was still the position, and Corbyn said yesterday on the HoC an election after royal assent is his. Not agreeing it surely looks and smells dangerously partisan and anti electorate on that basis to the voters who will definitely be getting a say by November? Not agreeing one Monday is basically saying we do not trust the PM to follow the law of the land so we are ensuring he is in power to not follow the law of the land. That's not going to attract voters, theyll think theyve gone batty.
10% Tory poll lead some disaster, the Westminster commentariat so out of touch now it is beyond a joke
May I gently remind you of Mrs. May's polling lead prior to the last election.
You surely cannot deny that the last few days have been... sub-optimal for the Prime Minister ?
Wait until the weekend polls, then we will see what a 'disaster' it has been for Boris
Haven't you been saying for months now that the Tories would do badly in the next election if we're still in the EU after Oct 31st? Do you not believe that's the case any more, or do you think this week hasn't made that outcome any more likely?
No, as Boris has voted against extension. Had he extended of his own free will it would have been a disaster but if Boris only extends as the law requires him to but still promises to Leave as soon as he gets the Tories a majority I doubt that affects his rating at all, in fact it probably boosts it further in opposition to diehard Remainer MPs
This is an outright lie. If the search facility on this forum was decent I would find the your posts. You clearly wrote, that if we had not Brexited by the 31st of October then tories would lose huge numbers of votes to the Brexit party.
No I said Boris must commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st which he has, the fact a majority of MPs led by Corbyn and diehard Remainers have voted against leaving on 31st October does not change the fact Boris has done exactly as he promised, though he could of course still ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill as a last resort or agree a technical solution for the Irish border on October 17th and see the Withdrawal Agreement then possibly passed.
All that matters is the image of Boris committed to delivering the will of the people and Corbyn and the LDs are not as the weekend polls will confirm. Unless Boris votes for extension which he has not he will keep gaining votes from the Brexit Party and Labour Leave voters while Labour Leave voters also shift to Farage
Nevertheless you have said what he said you did. You are free to argue that circumstances have changed but I would hope you would not want to be proved to be dishonest.
That would send a lot of Lab -> Lib switchers back to Labour and help attract more potential Con -> Lib switchers.
IMO the LDs have a MASSIVE opportunity in this coming election.
They can (maybe) pull in lots of Labs who hate Corbyn AND lots of Cons who hate Johnson.
I await the opening spread betting line on their seats with much anticipation.
Id rather wait until the campaign starts. The LD risk is if Brexit is kicked in to the long grass the immediacy of No Deal has gone. So has the LDs biggest issue.
Which is on Monday and fulfils Corbyn's statement in the HOC when he said labour would vote for a GE once the Act received RA
Politically much better for Corbyn to force Boris to extend A50.
But he needs to tread carefully and it will be interesting to see what explanation Labour can come up with as to why they favour a post 31 Oct election.
The election could easily lead to another hung parliament. We might not know who the PM to be is at a vital time in our history. Etc.
Just looking at Liverpool Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been, though the LD did come a reasonably good second in both 2005 and 2010 (majorities of only 5k and 7k respectively for Labour). However, they've been pushed into fourth in 2015 and then third in 2017.
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
Berger will stand in Finchley and Kemp in Liverpool
Their position is to secure an election before prorogation
Think that will change. Can't see them collaborating with Johnson.
They said this morning that was still the position, and Corbyn said yesterday on the HoC an election after royal assent is his. Not agreeing it surely looks and smells dangerously partisan and anti electorate on that basis to the voters who will definitely be getting a say by November? Not agreeing one Monday is basically saying we do not trust the PM to follow the law of the land so we are ensuring he is in power to not follow the law of the land. That's not going to attract voters, theyll think theyve gone batty.
Which is why you ask for the VONC on Tuesday and then reject the request for an election.
Why ? He doesn't want an election before 31st October.
A VONC doesn't necessarily lead to an election at all let alone before 31 Oct, but it does solve the problem of the Tories calling him frit. He could get into no10 to enact yesterdays Bill.
But what about the risk of it passing, no alternative government being found, and Boris calling an election for after Oct 31?
Boris will have to, by law, request an a50 extension because of the new Act.
He may. He may also attach conditions to any request.
I request an extension to Jan 31 2020, and Calais back.
I request an extension but I am afraid there is no budget for any contributions.
Or demand a rebate due to the effect of the EUs delay in agreeing an acceptable deal on the British taxpayer
Such a ridiculous post it's not even worth arguing with.
Oh get a life. It's meant to be demonstrating that Johnson can find something unacceptable to the EU to attach to his mandated request for an extension to make them less likely to offer it. He doesn't want am extension and nor do the majority of voters according to polling. I'm not suggesting he actually demand Calais back ir a chest of rebate gold
Disagree - Boris should ask for every inch of territory we held at the height of the Hundred Years' War, or no extension.
If the opposition in Parliament can play cute legalistic games, then so should we.
JRM has always had a sneery streak. While it was usually pretty comedic (or at least contemptible) when he was just an idiot backbencher, it takes on a rather more sinister feel now he has some power. Nasty man.
Just looking at Liverpool Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been, though the LD did come a reasonably good second in both 2005 and 2010 (majorities of only 5k and 7k respectively for Labour). However, they've been pushed into fourth in 2015 and then third in 2017.
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
The word on the grapevine is that she will contest Finchley and Golders Green.
As usual from Stephen Bush, this is good. I note that the Lib Dem PPC for Finchley & Golders Green has been enthusiastically tweeting about Berger's arrival this morning, which makes me wonder if it's already been squared off.
I don't think that was very much of a hit piece. Granted Politico has a fairly strong Republican slant - though nowhere near that of say The Hill - but much of its reporting is relatively straightforward. I don't expect Biden will fare much better on this in the liberal media.
Which is on Monday and fulfils Corbyn's statement in the HOC when he said labour would vote for a GE once the Act received RA
Politically much better for Corbyn to force Boris to extend A50.
But he needs to tread carefully and it will be interesting to see what explanation Labour can come up with as to why they favour a post 31 Oct election.
The election could easily lead to another hung parliament. We might not know who the PM to be is at a vital time in our history. Etc.
Does that work?
The message that sends is exactly the same as Corbyn admitting "I'm too shit to win". Great slogan for a campaign!
10% Tory poll lead some disaster, the Westminster commentariat so out of touch now it is beyond a joke
May I gently remind you of Mrs. May's polling lead prior to the last election.
You surely cannot deny that the last few days have been... sub-optimal for the Prime Minister ?
Wait until the weekend polls, then we will see what a 'disaster' it has been for Boris
Haven't you been saying for months now that the Tories would do badly in the next election if we're still in the EU after Oct 31st? Do you not believe that's the case any more, or do you think this week hasn't made that outcome any more likely?
No, as Boris has voted against extension. Had he extended of
This is an outright lie. If the search facility on this forum was decent I would find the your posts. You clearly wrote, that if we had not Brexited by the 31st of October then tories would lose huge numbers of votes to the Brexit party.
No I said Boris must commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st which he has, the fact a majority of MPs led by Corbyn and diehard Remainers have voted against leaving on 31st October does not change the fact Boris has done exactly as he promised, though he could of course still ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill as a last resort or agree a technical solution for the Irish border on October 17th and see the Withdrawal Agreement then possibly passed.
All that matters is the image of Boris committed to delivering the will of the people and Corbyn and the LDs are not as the weekend polls will confirm. Unless Boris votes for extension which he has not he will keep gaining votes from the Brexit Party and Labour Leave voters while Labour Leave voters also shift to Farage
Nevertheless you have said what he said you did. You are free to argue that circumstances have changed but I would hope you would not want to be proved to be dishonest.
Nothing dishonest, I said Boris will commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and he has by voting against extension, if a majority of MPs vote for it Boris will never have voted for it himself, it will be the Queen who gives royal assent to extension NOT Boris, Boris' hands will be clean against Corbyn who voted to extend
Which is on Monday and fulfils Corbyn's statement in the HOC when he said labour would vote for a GE once the Act received RA
Politically much better for Corbyn to force Boris to extend A50.
But he needs to tread carefully and it will be interesting to see what explanation Labour can come up with as to why they favour a post 31 Oct election.
The election could easily lead to another hung parliament. We might not know who the PM to be is at a vital time in our history. Etc.
Does that work?
Of course we will know who the PM will be. It'll be Johnson, unless Labour has won a clear majority in which case he'll send for Corbyn. If the result is unclear, Johnson remains as PM and signs the letter whilst everyone is sorting out who will take over in short order.
I understand an election after 31st October is in Labour's interests (Well we think it is) but the line we won't know who the Prime Minister is on a particular day is preposterous.
If Johnson resigns then the Queen will call for Corbyn unless Johnson has advised her someone else can command the confidence of the Commons. So it'll be Johnson, Corbyn or someone else but there is definitely a PM !
Which is on Monday and fulfils Corbyn's statement in the HOC when he said labour would vote for a GE once the Act received RA
Politically much better for Corbyn to force Boris to extend A50.
But he needs to tread carefully and it will be interesting to see what explanation Labour can come up with as to why they favour a post 31 Oct election.
The election could easily lead to another hung parliament. We might not know who the PM to be is at a vital time in our history. Etc.
Does that work?
The message that sends is exactly the same as Corbyn admitting "I'm too shit to win". Great slogan for a campaign!
No, they'll just say "we don't trust Boris, so we want to make sure his hands are tied', and leave it at that.
10% Tory poll lead some disaster, the Westminster commentariat so out of touch now it is beyond a joke
May I gently remind you of Mrs. May's polling lead prior to the last election.
You surely cannot deny that the last few days have been... sub-optimal for the Prime Minister ?
Wait until the weekend polls, then we will see what a 'disaster' it has been for Boris
Haven't you been saying for months now that the Tories would do badly in the next election if we're still in the EU after Oct 31st? Do you not believe that's the case any more, or do you think this week hasn't made that outcome any more likely?
No, as Boris has voted against extension. Had he extended of
This is an outright lie. If the search facility on this forum was decent I would find the your posts. You clearly wrote, that if we had not Brexited by the 31st of October then tories would lose huge numbers of votes to the Brexit party.
No I said Boris must commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st which he has, the fact a majority of MPs led by Corbyn and diehard Remainers have voted against leaving on 31st October does not change the fact Boris has done exactly as he promised, though he could of course still ask the Queen to refuse royal assent to the anti No Deal Bill as a last resort or agree a technical solution for the Irish border on October 17th and see the Withdrawal Agreement then possibly passed.
All that matters is the image of Boris committed to delivering the will of the people and Corbyn and the LDs are not as the weekend polls will confirm. Unless Boris votes for extension which he has not he will keep gaining votes from the Brexit Party and Labour Leave voters while Labour Leave voters also shift to Farage
Nevertheless you have said what he said you did. You are free to argue that circumstances have changed but I would hope you would not want to be proved to be dishonest.
Nothing dishonest, I said Boris will commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and he has by voting against extension, if a majority of MPs vote for it Boris will never have voted for it himself, it will be the Queen who gives royal assent to extension NOT Boris, Boris' hands will be clean against Corbyn who voted to extend
Just looking at Liverpool Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been, though the LD did come a reasonably good second in both 2005 and 2010 (majorities of only 5k and 7k respectively for Labour). However, they've been pushed into fourth in 2015 and then third in 2017.
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
The word on the grapevine is that she will contest Finchley and Golders Green.
Why ? He doesn't want an election before 31st October.
A VONC doesn't necessarily lead to an election at all let alone before 31 Oct, but it does solve the problem of the Tories calling him frit. He could get into no10 to enact yesterdays Bill.
But what about the risk of it passing, no alternative government being found, and Boris calling an election for after Oct 31?
Boris will have to, by law, request an a50 extension because of the new Act.
He may. He may also attach conditions to any request.
I request an extension to Jan 31 2020, and Calais back.
I request an extension but I am afraid there is no budget for any contributions.
Or demand a rebate due to the effect of the EUs delay in agreeing an acceptable deal on the British taxpayer
Such a ridiculous post it's not even worth arguing with.
Oh get a life. It's meant to be demonstrating that Johnson can find something unacceptable to the EU to attach to his mandated request for an extension to make them less likely to offer it. He doesn't want am extension and nor do the majority of voters according to polling. I'm not suggesting he actually demand Calais back ir a chest of rebate gold
Apologies if I missed your irony.
But Johnson can't ask for conditions as the request letter is already written for him. And he doesn't get to reject the EU'd offer. He's just going to be a mouthpiece for the HoC.
Which is on Monday and fulfils Corbyn's statement in the HOC when he said labour would vote for a GE once the Act received RA
Politically much better for Corbyn to force Boris to extend A50.
But he needs to tread carefully and it will be interesting to see what explanation Labour can come up with as to why they favour a post 31 Oct election.
The election could easily lead to another hung parliament. We might not know who the PM to be is at a vital time in our history. Etc.
Does that work?
The message that sends is exactly the same as Corbyn admitting "I'm too shit to win". Great slogan for a campaign!
No, they'll just say "we don't trust Boris, so we want to make sure his hands are tied', and leave it at that.
Or "we're confident, not arrogant. The county has had enough of entitled Tories gambling with the nation's future."
Why would you ensure someone you dont trust to follow the law is PM on the day he has to follow the law? When you have a vote to try and make sure he isn't and the law is there anyway? Its admitting you can't win the election.
Just looking at Liverpool Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been, though the LD did come a reasonably good second in both 2005 and 2010 (majorities of only 5k and 7k respectively for Labour). However, they've been pushed into fourth in 2015 and then third in 2017.
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
The LD seat in Liverpool was Liverpool Mossley Hill, held by David Alton between 1979 and 1997, (although the name was Liverpool Edge Hill from 79 to 83).
Just looking at Liverpool Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been, though the LD did come a reasonably good second in both 2005 and 2010 (majorities of only 5k and 7k respectively for Labour). However, they've been pushed into fourth in 2015 and then third in 2017.
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
Berger will stand in Finchley and Kemp in Liverpool
Is that said from a considered position? Is Berger from Finchley or something? The LD's have already selected a candidate there too (one Clareine Enderby) and the seat is a tight Con-Lab marginal with the LD nowhere.
She'd be better sticking with Wavertree than trying Finchley and Golders Green.
Given that the LDs now virtually own the revoke/remain vote. It would be interesting to see what happens if they snatch most of it and it brings them over 20% in the GE.
They said this morning that was still the position, and Corbyn said yesterday on the HoC an election after royal assent is his. Not agreeing it surely looks and smells dangerously partisan and anti electorate on that basis to the voters who will definitely be getting a say by November? Not agreeing one Monday is basically saying we do not trust the PM to follow the law of the land so we are ensuring he is in power to not follow the law of the land. That's not going to attract voters, theyll think theyve gone batty.
Yes, it could backfire. But OTOH there is the (usually) good dictum that one should do what one's opponents least want you to do.
The betting has it 60/40 Oct/Nov - it was 80/20 a couple of days ago.
JRM has always had a sneery streak. While it was usually pretty comedic (or at least contemptible) when he was just an idiot backbencher, it takes on a rather more sinister feel now he has some power. Nasty man.
Hence why no sensible Tory leader has ever trusted him with even modest responsibility.
Why ? He doesn't want an election before 31st October.
A VONC doesn't necessarily lead to an election at all let alone before 31 Oct, but it does solve the problem of the Tories calling him frit. He could get into no10 to enact yesterdays Bill.
But what about the risk of it passing, no alternative government being found, and Boris calling an election for after Oct 31?
Boris will have to, by law, request an a50 extension because of the new Act.
He may. He may also attach conditions to any request.
I request an extension to Jan 31 2020, and Calais back.
I request an extension but I am afraid there is no budget for any contributions.
Or demand a rebate due to the effect of the EUs delay in agreeing an acceptable deal on the British taxpayer
Such a ridiculous post it's not even worth arguing with.
Oh get a life. It's meant to be demonstrating that Johnson can find something unacceptable to the EU to attach to his mandated request for an extension to make them less likely to offer it. He doesn't want am extension and nor do the majority of voters according to polling. I'm not suggesting he actually demand Calais back ir a chest of rebate gold
Apologies if I missed your irony.
But Johnson can't ask for conditions as the request letter is already written for him. And he doesn't get to reject the EU'd offer. He's just going to be a mouthpiece for the HoC.
No probs He could however start interjecting requests into the negotiations. Make it clear that he wants x, y, z and the extension is to give the EU time to accede to those requests. Making it unappealing to offer that extension knowing they can't agree what he wants
Just looking at Liverpool Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been, though the LD did come a reasonably good second in both 2005 and 2010 (majorities of only 5k and 7k respectively for Labour). However, they've been pushed into fourth in 2015 and then third in 2017.
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
Berger will stand in Finchley and Kemp in Liverpool
Is that said from a considered position? Is Berger from Finchley or something? The LD's have already selected a candidate there too (one Clareine Enderby) and the seat is a tight Con-Lab marginal with the LD nowhere.
She'd be better sticking with Wavertree than trying Finchley and Golders Green.
Why would you ensure someone you dont trust to follow the law is PM on the day he has to follow the law? When you have a vote to try and make sure he isn't and the law is there anyway? Its admitting you can't win the election.
The real reason is wishing to humiliate Johnson. Now it's a very understandable reason for electoral purposes but rather different to one of trust
Id rather wait until the campaign starts. The LD risk is if Brexit is kicked in to the long grass the immediacy of No Deal has gone. So has the LDs biggest issue.
The LDs can always underperform, true, it's one of the constant themes of British politics. But this time I sense could be different.
Long grass? Not sure a 3 month extension counts as that.
If we plug into electoral calculus with 75% tactical voting from Remain parties and 0% tactical voting from Leave parties, it is a Tory majority of 20.
Just looking at Liverpool Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been, though the LD did come a reasonably good second in both 2005 and 2010 (majorities of only 5k and 7k respectively for Labour). However, they've been pushed into fourth in 2015 and then third in 2017.
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
Berger will stand in Finchley and Kemp in Liverpool
Is that said from a considered position? Is Berger from Finchley or something? The LD's have already selected a candidate there too (one Clareine Enderby) and the seat is a tight Con-Lab marginal with the LD nowhere.
She'd be better sticking with Wavertree than trying Finchley and Golders Green.
Yes, Berger has a London home in Finchley apparently. And you don't need me to explain why Corbyn's Labour might not be a big draw in Finchley and Golders Green, and why Luciana Berger might be.
If we plug into electoral calculus with 75% tactical voting from Remain parties and 0% tactical voting from Leave parties, it is a Tory majority of 20.
Just looking at Liverpool Wavertree. I got it wrong recalling it was a LD seat. It's never been, though the LD did come a reasonably good second in both 2005 and 2010 (majorities of only 5k and 7k respectively for Labour). However, they've been pushed into fourth in 2015 and then third in 2017.
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
Berger will stand in Finchley and Kemp in Liverpool
Is that said from a considered position? Is Berger from Finchley or something? The LD's have already selected a candidate there too (one Clareine Enderby) and the seat is a tight Con-Lab marginal with the LD nowhere.
She'd be better sticking with Wavertree than trying Finchley and Golders Green.
But the LDs do appear too far behind to win. She could end up allowing the Cons to keep the seat.
She's much more likely to end up allowing Labour to take the seat. That part of the world isn't particularly fond of Brexit (albeit it did vote heavily for Johnson twice as mayor, but then again it really hates Ken Livingstone).
Given her stated reasons for leaving the Labour party, you'd have thought preventing a Corbyn government would be at least roughly as important to Berger as preventing (a No Deal) Brexit.
Given that the LDs now virtually own the revoke/remain vote. It would be interesting to see what happens if they snatch most of it and it brings them over 20% in the GE.
I am hoping the best thing to come out this mess is we get a modern Eurooean social democratic party as the main party of the left.
Look at the direction of travel. Boris's reputation is being mangled in slow motion and public opinion is hardening. Can anyone with a straight face say they trust Boris Johnson personally professionally morally or in any way at all?
Id rather wait until the campaign starts. The LD risk is if Brexit is kicked in to the long grass the immediacy of No Deal has gone. So has the LDs biggest issue.
The LDs can always underperform, true, it's one of the constant themes of British politics. But this time I sense could be different.
Long grass? Not sure a 3 month extension counts as that.
Id say the problem for the LDs is their perennial one. There just isnt a big enough demos for a centrist party under FPTP. They either need to replace Labour or the Tories and as ever they are getting pulled in 2 directions,
ITV news says Boris will refuse to go to Brussels and ask for an extension even if the anti No Deal Bill passes
Then he'll be held in comtept of parliment.
If you don't trust Johnson to do this surely best not to have him as PM on the day ?
I expect the EU will give us an extension anyway, practically demand we have a GE to try and sort out some different HoC numbers and stick us on final warning for arsing about.
If you don't trust Johnson then you have an election on the 14th.
If you either want to i a) Humiliate him or ii b) Are worried he might go for no deal because he has a majority to overturn Benn then you seek an election after.
It's almost as bad a fib as the Tory line about the extensive prorogation being primarily for the purpose of a Queens Speech.
Comments
I heard that exchange. I smiled at the political double-speak. "We're doing it because we love the English so much." or words to that effect. Even a blind chimp would have laughed too.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1169582108219756549
The swine. Vote for me to get the two things I said I didn't want and that you, the public, also don't want. "
All the same, I can't help thinking that as this is a family matter, and not just politics, it may well cut through to the "common reader".
For my money the person to watch is The Saj. I can't help thinking that the evident failure to bother cultivating him is pretty dangerous for Boris. A definite blind spot.
All the same, the overall short-term Boris strategy remains sound even if the execution is maladroit.
In the longer-term driving out a big slice of the Conservative coalition is extremely problematic. After the GE, a huge effort will be needed to repair the fabric of the Party as many middle-of-the-road sensible Tories will be very unsettled by a Party personified by Raab, Rees-Mogg and Patel.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/04/cnn-climate-forum-biden-228035
Can he keep on shrugging this sort of stuff off ?
Much going on this morning? I only came on to get a cricket update....
All that matters is the image of Boris committed to delivering the will of the people and Corbyn and the LDs are not as the weekend polls will confirm. Unless Boris votes for extension which he has not he will keep gaining votes from the Brexit Party and Labour Leave voters while Labour Leave voters also shift to Farage
Before this week I thought it would be politically impossible for Corbyn to reject an election at any time... but yesterday he came up with a good reason.
They can (maybe) pull in lots of Labs who hate Corbyn AND lots of Cons who hate Johnson.
I await the opening spread betting line on their seats with much anticipation.
So it's not politically impossible for Corbyn to say no...
https://twitter.com/KeithSimpsonMP/status/1169584628388302850
Berger is going to need a huge personal vote to hold the seat, and I also see (according to Wiki) that the LDs had already selected a candidate (Richard Kemp) who has fought the seat previously. I see he is 66 years old, so perhaps he could be pursuaded to 'retire' his intention to stand?
Colour me shocked.
Does that work?
If the opposition in Parliament can play cute legalistic games, then so should we.
Granted Politico has a fairly strong Republican slant - though nowhere near that of say The Hill - but much of its reporting is relatively straightforward. I don't expect Biden will fare much better on this in the liberal media.
Haven't seen them poll before - apologies if others posted earlier.
Con 33, Lab 26, LD 17, BxP 14, Green 3. (3-4 Sept).
I understand an election after 31st October is in Labour's interests (Well we think it is) but the line we won't know who the Prime Minister is on a particular day is preposterous.
If Johnson resigns then the Queen will call for Corbyn unless Johnson has advised her someone else can command the confidence of the Commons. So it'll be Johnson, Corbyn or someone else but there is definitely a PM !
Worth reading down his feed, as an illustration of how Tory MPs who haven’t (yet) rebelled are thinking.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1169211360003141633
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1169211558800629764
Election BEFORE Parliament is prorogued.
https://twitter.com/spconnolly/status/1169554644261134336
Could it be that Sinn Fein will send MPs via a different route by supporting a non Sinn Fein candidate.
Poor old Boris.... nope, sorry. Got no sympathy at all.
But Johnson can't ask for conditions as the request letter is already written for him. And he doesn't get to reject the EU'd offer. He's just going to be a mouthpiece for the HoC.
Labour plus LDs plus Greens 46%
She'd be better sticking with Wavertree than trying Finchley and Golders Green.
The betting has it 60/40 Oct/Nov - it was 80/20 a couple of days ago.
Hence why no sensible Tory leader has ever trusted him with even modest responsibility.
He could however start interjecting requests into the negotiations. Make it clear that he wants x, y, z and the extension is to give the EU time to accede to those requests. Making it unappealing to offer that extension knowing they can't agree what he wants
But the LDs do appear too far behind to win. She could end up allowing the Cons to keep the seat.
That Johnson is a crook beyond anyone's imagination repeated ad nauseam is not news. This is! A complete game changer .
Long grass? Not sure a 3 month extension counts as that.
Given her stated reasons for leaving the Labour party, you'd have thought preventing a Corbyn government would be at least roughly as important to Berger as preventing (a No Deal) Brexit.
Ana election campaign based on "You can't trust BoZo" starts with "BoZo breaks the law"
Thanks. Drinks all round.
I expect the EU will give us an extension anyway, practically demand we have a GE to try and sort out some different HoC numbers and stick us on final warning for arsing about.
If you don't trust Johnson then you have an election on the 14th.
If you either want to i a) Humiliate him or ii b) Are worried he might go for no deal because he has a majority to overturn Benn then you seek an election after.
It's almost as bad a fib as the Tory line about the extensive prorogation being primarily for the purpose of a Queens Speech.