politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Elevator Pitch
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Voters opposed further extension by 47% to 41% at the weekend, Corbyn defying the will of the people will lose further working class Voters to the Brexit Party and the Tories.Cicero said:
Well in the weird world of the offshore controlled far right press, who have pathetically been trying to spin the evisceration of this government as either a triumph for Johnson or simply a temporary setback due to the "cowardice of Corbyn" then this would indeed be a no brainer.HYUFD said:
Wrong, wait for the weekend polls, Corbyn blocking Brexit will go down like a lead balloon with Labour Leave voters to the benefit of the Brexit Party and Tories148grss said:Any election, deal, indyref or people's vote will be won on the very margins of established voting patterns. I think that whilst lots of politicians should worry about being "too clever by half" that FPTP is a fickle thing, and that even a 30-35% showing for the Conservatives is no guarantee of a majority in the House. Every little counts at the moment, and it is the Conservatives and Johnson committing unforced errors, not the LOTO and not the other opposition parties.
However, back in the real world, Johnson is a loser. The idea that Pontefract is going to vote for the posh boys sprawling over the Commons benches is laughably delusional. The hate that Johnson, Cummings and Rees Mogg inspire is now way beyond Corbyn's local difficulties.
The heart of the Conservative party has just been broken: you just lost every vote and even ended up expelling Churchill's grandson FFS!
The country is sick of this fiasco and the increasingly bitter irony of the fact that the whole thing was simply a ruse to try and unite the Conservatives is turning the sky black with chickens home to roost.
Johnson may think he can gain a victory even with 35% of the vote. but the truth is that even rather weak ambition is unlikely to be achieved. The anti-Tory tactical voting will be significant and the loses will cripple the party for a long time, maybe forever.
The loss of Labour Leave seats will cripple Labour for a long time, maybe forever0 -
Holy cow...where is this on the Ed vs David scale?
Worse probably0 -
CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!5
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Even Bozos own brother can’t stomach the right wing coup .0
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Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.HYUFD said:
Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats0 -
He has a history of generating dodgy headlines.beentheredonethat said:
They talk to him because they trust him. He is also very smart rather than just someone who looks for headlines so they enjoy talking to him.edmundintokyo said:
He has a history of quoting some unnamed senior EU official saying all kinds of weird shit.beentheredonethat said:
Bruno Waterfield is an extraordinarily well connected journalist as regards the eu institutions. I would think he will get this right.0 -
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?nico67 said:
This forces Bozo to break his Brexit promise .
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.0 -
Amazing absolutely amazing0
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" 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person." is definitely right.malcolmg said:
Think he was right first time and 50% was low callnot_on_fire said:
Wrong. 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person.eek said:https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1169547762641358848
Nope, more than 50% of the population are stupider than the average person.
"more than 50% of the population are stupider than the mean person" is (probably) also right.
Average can be used to mean "mean" or "median".
I like the old chestnut "Most welshmen have more than the average number of legs".0 -
Jo Johnson quits as minister AND as Tory MP!
EDIT Sorry I'm 8 minutes behind in this fast moving drama.0 -
I see that the PB Tories have carefully pivoted from: the filibuster is going to succeed and mwah ha ha Dom is a genius
To
The filibuster would have succeeded if we’d let it.
Absolutely hilarious TBH.0 -
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Richard Tice makes Johnson look extremely pleasent too in comparison !GIN1138 said:
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?nico67 said:
This forces Bozo to break his Brexit promise .
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.0 -
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Hmm, wasn't "not even his own brother trusts him" quite a powerful line used against EdM...0
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bigjohnowls said:
Johnson cant even convince his own brother
Standing down in the National Interest
Good grief. That is absolutely extraordinary.
Boris: too toxic even for his brother.
Fuck me.0 -
Events rapidly spiralling out of control for BoJo?2
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Taking a ministerial post under BroJo seemed a fairly weird choice (as did his being offered one in the first place), given he couldn't serve under TM as she was too leavey.eek said:
Ouch - Family parties are going to be fun in the future.Scott_P said:
Not a biggie in the grand scheme, but HUGELY sub-optimal optics for BJ.0 -
Another LibDem gain on the way.surbiton19 said:https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008
Vote of confidence0 -
But....but....but! Boris’ Big Speech....which we’ve heard two (or is it three?) times already!Scott_P said:
Oh dear! What a shame.....0 -
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I haven't watched 'The Pledge' for a while, what does Rachel make of her brother's performance thus far?0
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Not prepared to sign the no deal pledge and resigned so not to cause more embarrassment for his brother Aleristdoof said:
" 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person." is definitely right.malcolmg said:
Think he was right first time and 50% was low callnot_on_fire said:
Wrong. 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person.eek said:https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1169547762641358848
Nope, more than 50% of the population are stupider than the average person.
"more than 50% of the population are stupider than the mean person" is (probably) also right.
Average can be used to mean "mean" or "median".
I like the old chestnut "Most welshmen have more than the average number of legs".0 -
Going well for the PM.
A 100% losing record in Commons votes.
Didn't have a majority and tossed 21 MPs overboard to show how 'tough' he is.
Now lost his own brother as an MP.
Vaguely reminds me of Didius Julianus.1 -
He gave a personal pledge that he would do it.GIN1138 said:
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?nico67 said:
This forces Bozo to break his Brexit promise .
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
Ask Nick Clegg about personal pledges and the electorate.0 -
Better still!eek said:
A GNU with Philip Hammond as PM and Harriet as deputy would annoy even more.Anabobazina said:A Gnu with Ken Clarke as PM and Harriet as DPM is the right choice.
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Perhaps the brothers Miliband can advise the Johnson brothers about where to sit at a family reunion?0
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Yes, completely unfairly I think.Danny565 said:Hmm, wasn't "not even his own brother trusts him" quite a powerful line used against EdM...
Orpington ?IanB2 said:
Another LibDem gain on the way.surbiton19 said:https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008
Vote of confidence
Safe as houses.0 -
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Only Jezza has the GE key and Johnson the Jester and wee Jimmy Krankie can scream as loud as they want. November you cant trust Johnson GE it is.GIN1138 said:
Nicola playing a very crafty game keeping everyone waiting to see which way she'll jump.DanSmith said:https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1169550043935850498
The SNP hold the key to this don't they.
Personally I think she'll go for 15th October once the bill is passed tomorrows as she can say she's made sure NO DEAL doesn't happen on 31st October AND she's dragging cowardly Corbyn kicking and screaming to the polls so Scots now have the opportunity to kick Lab and Con out of Scotland once and for all.
She's a smart operator.0 -
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I knew this week was going to be full of fun, drama and entertainment but never expected it to be this much fun, drama and entertainment.Benpointer said:Events rapidly spiralling out of control for BoJo?
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One of the unintentionally funniest lines on PB, ever.Richard_Tyndall said:
The only ones who would be upset are the opposition MPs who are looking to trap him in office for their own political ends.Roger said:
Won't that make him more despised than he already is?Richard_Tyndall said:Read a very interesting suggestion earlier today about how Boris can escape the box his opponents think they have him trapped in.
He should invoke the 2004 Civil Contingencies Act. He can do it unilaterally as a Minister of the Crown. He can then suspend the FTPA and call an election. He then cancels the CCA.
The CCA is one of the worst pieces of legislation ever created but since Blair was stupid enough to create it Boris should make use of it.0 -
I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.0
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The irony of the Nick Clegg one was that it was wished upon him by the leftish part of the Lib Dems - the Social and Liberal Democrat ginger group iirc.Tabman said:
He gave a personal pledge that he would do it.GIN1138 said:
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?nico67 said:
This forces Bozo to break his Brexit promise .
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
Ask Nick Clegg about personal pledges and the electorate.0 -
It was probably unfair between Ed and David, it seems highly appropriate here.Pulpstar said:
Yes, completely unfairly I think.Danny565 said:Hmm, wasn't "not even his own brother trusts him" quite a powerful line used against EdM...
Orpington ?IanB2 said:
Another LibDem gain on the way.surbiton19 said:https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008
Vote of confidence
Safe as houses.0 -
Depends if the queue from Dover reaches therePulpstar said:
Yes, completely unfairly I think.Danny565 said:Hmm, wasn't "not even his own brother trusts him" quite a powerful line used against EdM...
Orpington ?IanB2 said:
Another LibDem gain on the way.surbiton19 said:https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008
Vote of confidence
Safe as houses.
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This is absolute gold. Johnson premiership is shaping up to be one of the most entertaining things in years.0
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I understand that but was jokingly saying that he was right that more than 50% of the population are stupid and that his number should have been higher.eristdoof said:
" 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person." is definitely right.malcolmg said:
Think he was right first time and 50% was low callnot_on_fire said:
Wrong. 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person.eek said:https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1169547762641358848
Nope, more than 50% of the population are stupider than the average person.
"more than 50% of the population are stupider than the mean person" is (probably) also right.
Average can be used to mean "mean" or "median".
I like the old chestnut "Most welshmen have more than the average number of legs".
PS: the Welsh joke is amusing, if a bit harsh on Werlshmen0 -
Plenty of room in the centre at the moment.ab195 said:I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
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Hopefully Ladbrokes will think the same as you.Pulpstar said:
Yes, completely unfairly I think.Danny565 said:Hmm, wasn't "not even his own brother trusts him" quite a powerful line used against EdM...
Orpington ?IanB2 said:
Another LibDem gain on the way.surbiton19 said:https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008
Vote of confidence
Safe as houses.0 -
What are the odds on BJ being dumped by the party on 1st November 2019?0
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If a constituency voted 52% Leave and Labour won the seat with 48% in GE 2015/17. You could resonably conclude that most of Labour voters there voted remain.HYUFD said:
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats0 -
Leave has defeated Remain in the Johnson household it would appear!0
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He'll just ignore the law and no deal anyway. He won't give a fuck.Benpointer said:Labour MPs queuing up to confirm they will not support a pre- 31 Oct election.
What will Boris "Under no circumstances will I ask for an extension" do?
Surely, he has to resign as PM? Then what?0 -
Had to look Didius up on Wiki (my knowledge of Roman Emperors is mainly courtesy of I, Claudius) but yes, looks similar.Morris_Dancer said:Going well for the PM.
A 100% losing record in Commons votes.
Didn't have a majority and tossed 21 MPs overboard to show how 'tough' he is.
Now lost his own brother as an MP.
Vaguely reminds me of Didius Julianus.
(Fortunately we live in less bloody times, though - resignation and ignomy will be enough for BoJo.)0 -
They said Boris that would cheer up the nation.eek said:
I knew this week was going to be full of fun, drama and entertainment but never expected it to be this much fun, drama and entertainment.Benpointer said:Events rapidly spiralling out of control for BoJo?
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Totally different situation.Tabman said:
He gave a personal pledge that he would do it.GIN1138 said:
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?nico67 said:
This forces Bozo to break his Brexit promise .
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
Ask Nick Clegg about personal pledges and the electorate.
Clegg signed away his tuition fees pledge to get power. He sold the students down the river so he could form the coalition.
In this situation Boris has done everything possible to try to deliver Brexit on 31st October even to the point of throwing out Tory grandees and splitting his own family but Parliament has just totally been unreasonable.
I suspect most Leave voters will be sympathetic.0 -
You're be better off backing Swinson as PM or Lib Dem most seats.IanB2 said:
Hopefully Ladbrokes will think the same as you.Pulpstar said:
Yes, completely unfairly I think.Danny565 said:Hmm, wasn't "not even his own brother trusts him" quite a powerful line used against EdM...
Orpington ?IanB2 said:
Another LibDem gain on the way.surbiton19 said:https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008
Vote of confidence
Safe as houses.0 -
The treason show trial will be fun...Dura_Ace said:
He'll just ignore the law and no deal anyway. He won't give a fuck.Benpointer said:Labour MPs queuing up to confirm they will not support a pre- 31 Oct election.
What will Boris "Under no circumstances will I ask for an extension" do?
Surely, he has to resign as PM? Then what?0 -
"Lock him up!"Dura_Ace said:
He'll just ignore the law and no deal anyway. He won't give a fuck.Benpointer said:Labour MPs queuing up to confirm they will not support a pre- 31 Oct election.
What will Boris "Under no circumstances will I ask for an extension" do?
Surely, he has to resign as PM? Then what?0 -
Do you think Boris Johnson cares more about
His Own Interest: 42
The National Interest: 21
The Conservative Party’s interest: 5
All of them equally: 16
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jb2o1kckli/PVResults_190904_Snap_Final.pdf
Regional breakdowns do not bode well for “Boris will sweep the North”...0 -
If his own brother thinks he’s not acting in the national interest why should the public .0
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Jail beckons will his brother visitDura_Ace said:
He'll just ignore the law and no deal anyway. He won't give a fuck.Benpointer said:Labour MPs queuing up to confirm they will not support a pre- 31 Oct election.
What will Boris "Under no circumstances will I ask for an extension" do?
Surely, he has to resign as PM? Then what?0 -
Make that a GND - there is no national unity.Anabobazina said:A Gnu with Ken Clarke as PM and Harriet as DPM is the right choice.
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As an author you couldn't write it as no one would believe itAramintaMoonbeamQC said:This is absolute gold. Johnson premiership is shaping up to be one of the most entertaining things in years.
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Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.ab195 said:I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.0 -
If Orpington goes LD then Swinson will be PM. I.e. it aint gonna happen.IanB2 said:
Hopefully Ladbrokes will think the same as you.Pulpstar said:
Yes, completely unfairly I think.Danny565 said:Hmm, wasn't "not even his own brother trusts him" quite a powerful line used against EdM...
Orpington ?IanB2 said:
Another LibDem gain on the way.surbiton19 said:https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008
Vote of confidence
Safe as houses.0 -
As I've argued with Sandalistas many, many times. It's the SLF (Socialist Liberation Front) by the way :-)MattW said:
The irony of the Nick Clegg one was that it was wished upon him by the leftish part of the Lib Dems - the Social and Liberal Democrat ginger group iirc.Tabman said:
He gave a personal pledge that he would do it.GIN1138 said:
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?nico67 said:
This forces Bozo to break his Brexit promise .
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
Ask Nick Clegg about personal pledges and the electorate.0 -
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:0 -
This is all very Trump-ish.
It's chaotic, it's stupid, it's incompetent, it's ridiculous, it's hopeless, it's all collapsing.
And yet all the core messages to the target voters he needs are intact.0 -
Boris is the Frank Spencer of 21st century Politics.glw said:
They said Boris that would cheer up the nation.eek said:
I knew this week was going to be full of fun, drama and entertainment but never expected it to be this much fun, drama and entertainment.Benpointer said:Events rapidly spiralling out of control for BoJo?
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Go. Na. D.AnneJGP said:
Make that a GND - there is no national unity.Anabobazina said:A Gnu with Ken Clarke as PM and Harriet as DPM is the right choice.
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It's like the season finale of the Netflix series 'United Kingdom?' the year that everyone thinks it 'jumped the shark'.eek said:
As an author you couldn't write it as no one would believe itAramintaMoonbeamQC said:This is absolute gold. Johnson premiership is shaping up to be one of the most entertaining things in years.
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While I tend to agree with you, it also ought to seek to retain those you refer to as 'sandalistas'.Tabman said:
Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.ab195 said:I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
There are important issues (climate change and environment for example) which ought to unite all of the above.0 -
Can Johnson campaign as well as Trump though ?edmundintokyo said:This is all very Trump-ish.
It's chaotic, it's stupid, it's incompetent, it's ridiculous, it's hopeless, it's all collapsing.
And yet all the core messages to the target voters he needs are intact.
Corbyn is also a far better campaigner than Hilary (Though would be a far far worse leader).0 -
That would be a GoNaDAnneJGP said:
Make that a GND - there is no national unity.Anabobazina said:A Gnu with Ken Clarke as PM and Harriet as DPM is the right choice.
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Forum, I believe ;-D .Tabman said:
As I've argued with Sandalistas many, many times. It's the SLF (Socialist Liberation Front) by the way :-)MattW said:
The irony of the Nick Clegg one was that it was wished upon him by the leftish part of the Lib Dems - the Social and Liberal Democrat ginger group iirc.Tabman said:
He gave a personal pledge that he would do it.GIN1138 said:
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?nico67 said:
This forces Bozo to break his Brexit promise .
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
Ask Nick Clegg about personal pledges and the electorate.0 -
How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Trump has the advantage of genuinely being stupid.Pulpstar said:
Can Johnson campaign as well as Trump though ?edmundintokyo said:This is all very Trump-ish.
It's chaotic, it's stupid, it's incompetent, it's ridiculous, it's hopeless, it's all collapsing.
And yet all the core messages to the target voters he needs are intact.0 -
Not encouraging inevitably they'll drop a bollock/eristdoof said:
That would be a GoNaDAnneJGP said:
Make that a GND - there is no national unity.Anabobazina said:A Gnu with Ken Clarke as PM and Harriet as DPM is the right choice.
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Mr. Pointer, a bit like Pertinax, he's best known for the brevity of his reign. But Pertinax at least tried to diminish the authority of the Praetorians (did it a bit too much, perhaps).
Think I wrote a few days ago that the more the PM tightened his grip, the more MPs would slip through his fingers. Didn't expect it to happen to quite this extent.
I wonder if the PCP should ask Cameron to stand in Jo Johnson's current seat.0 -
The real agenda on all sides is becoming very visibly exposed, that's good for clarity of choice at the upcoming election. Boris is having a bit of a mare though, he needs a win desperately0
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Do you think a GE is or is not the best way of settling Brexit
Is: 21
Is Not: 530 -
Or ... they'll conclude he's played his hand very badly and promised something he was either (i) too incompetent to deliver or (ii) he knew he couldn't deliver and lied about being able to.GIN1138 said:
Totally different situation.Tabman said:
He gave a personal pledge that he would do it.GIN1138 said:
Not sure why everyone assumes that "forcing Boris to break his promise" will cause problems for him?nico67 said:
This forces Bozo to break his Brexit promise .
He can just say he's had to do this because Parliament is being totally unreasonable and people need to give him a majority to end all the game playing.
If anything it will play into his Parliament Vs The People narrative.
Ask Nick Clegg about personal pledges and the electorate.
Clegg signed away his tuition fees pledge to get power. He sold the students down the river so he could form the coalition.
In this situation Boris has done everything possible to try to deliver Brexit on 31st October even to the point of throwing out Tory grandees and splitting his own family but Parliament has just totally been unreasonable.
I suspect most Leave voters will be sympathetic.0 -
so how come he's POTUS ?IanB2 said:
Trump has the advantage of genuinely being stupid.Pulpstar said:
Can Johnson campaign as well as Trump though ?edmundintokyo said:This is all very Trump-ish.
It's chaotic, it's stupid, it's incompetent, it's ridiculous, it's hopeless, it's all collapsing.
And yet all the core messages to the target voters he needs are intact.0 -
Looking like more than a GOMOO though.eristdoof said:
That would be a GoNaDAnneJGP said:
Make that a GND - there is no national unity.Anabobazina said:A Gnu with Ken Clarke as PM and Harriet as DPM is the right choice.
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Might be a coincidence but the Betfair odds against Revoke have shortened a bit.Scott_P said:0 -
Or Osborne? ;-)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pointer, a bit like Pertinax, he's best known for the brevity of his reign. But Pertinax at least tried to diminish the authority of the Praetorians (did it a bit too much, perhaps).
Think I wrote a few days ago that the more the PM tightened his grip, the more MPs would slip through his fingers. Didn't expect it to happen to quite this extent.
I wonder if the PCP should ask Cameron to stand in Jo Johnson's current seat.0 -
Was he before or after Biggus Dickus?Benpointer said:
Had to look Didius up on Wiki (my knowledge of Roman Emperors is mainly courtesy of I, Claudius) but yes, looks similar.Morris_Dancer said:Going well for the PM.
A 100% losing record in Commons votes.
Didn't have a majority and tossed 21 MPs overboard to show how 'tough' he is.
Now lost his own brother as an MP.
Vaguely reminds me of Didius Julianus.
(Fortunately we live in less bloody times, though - resignation and ignomy will be enough for BoJo.)0 -
So what, it only takes a few Labour Leavers there voting Tory or Brexit Party and the Tories take the seateristdoof said:
If a constituency voted 52% Leave and Labour won the seat with 48% in GE 2015/17. You could resonably conclude that most of Labour voters there voted remain.HYUFD said:
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats0 -
Do you want a GE vs do we need a GE would be polar opposite responsesCarlottaVance said:Do you think a GE is or is not the best way of settling Brexit
Is: 21
Is Not: 53
The best way to settle Brexit is to leave I'd think is most people's choice0 -
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Learn to read. I said almost 50%.eek said:
How do you jump from 48% wish to leave the EU to 50% think democracy has failed.Richard_Tyndall said:
Anyone looking at that and thinking another referendum will solve anything is utterly mad. Particularly because if that is the result the vast majority of people on the Leave side will feel they have had a legitimate victory stolen from them. Almost 50% of your population thinking democracy has failed and that the MPs are responsible for it is a recipe for complete disaster.CarlottaVance said:
The country is split but only one side is going to have their legitimate victory taken away from them. If you think that will be anything other than a disaster then you have your head buried in the sand.1 -
Another good article from Scotland
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17881390.snp-must-put-scottish-independence-front-centre/0 -
The problem is that they aren't real Liberals; they're the socialist "Red Guard" tendency that joined when the party was largely moribund, because they thought the Labour Party was too establishment. They don't really believe in Liberalism.Nigelb said:
While I tend to agree with you, it also ought to seek to retain those you refer to as 'sandalistas'.Tabman said:
Great news. The only future for the party is as a broad centre-left to centre-right coalition.ab195 said:I know it’s thinking a long way ahead but all these defections to the LibDems must be changing the character of the party. Thinking of the membership too. At some point, one hopes, Brexit won’t be the only issue, and you have to wonder where they’ll now go on other stuff.
It's pissing off the few remaining sandalistas. Hopefully they'll resign in a hissy fit.
There are important issues (climate change and environment for example) which ought to unite all of the above.1 -
In a seat with 48% Labour! Dream on.HYUFD said:
So what, it only takes a few Labour Leavers there voting Tory or Brexit Party and the Tories take the seateristdoof said:
If a constituency voted 52% Leave and Labour won the seat with 48% in GE 2015/17. You could resonably conclude that most of Labour voters there voted remain.HYUFD said:
His people? While most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave so under FPTP the more Corbyn shifts to block Brexit the better the Tories chances due to the many marginal Labour Leave seats0 -
Awful polling for Johnson.CarlottaVance said:Do you think Boris Johnson cares more about
His Own Interest: 42
The National Interest: 21
The Conservative Party’s interest: 5
All of them equally: 16
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jb2o1kckli/PVResults_190904_Snap_Final.pdf
Regional breakdowns do not bode well for “Boris will sweep the North”...0 -
Where is he going to get one from - they isn't anything left in this session of Parliament that could vaguely look like a win.dyedwoolie said:The real agenda on all sides is becoming very visibly exposed, that's good for clarity of choice at the upcoming election. Boris is having a bit of a mare though, he needs a win desperately
And next he has to run a week of Queen's speech debates where everyone can attack all his plans before voting it down. Only after that can / will an election be called.
If Cummings wargamed this I dread to think who his opponent was - a dead sheep?0 -
6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory with Yougov, 8% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Brexit Party, only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Labour.DougSeal said:
Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.HYUFD said:
Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats
The evidence is there0 -
There must be a chance the Johnson administration will simply collapse in acrimony.0
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Boris should strike a very loving and conciliatory tone when asked about Jo, I think there will be some sympathy for them both of they retain a very warm tone now the deed is dood
A lot of laughing at him too, but some sympathy for family strains
That might also help soothe some of the anger over the 21, if he can show hes not completely ruthless and cold1 -
Equally true of Scotland, malcolm.malcolmg said:
I understand that but was jokingly saying that he was right that more than 50% of the population are stupid and that his number should have been higher.eristdoof said:
" 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person." is definitely right.malcolmg said:
Think he was right first time and 50% was low callnot_on_fire said:
Wrong. 50% of the population are stupider than the *median* person.eek said:https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1169547762641358848
Nope, more than 50% of the population are stupider than the average person.
"more than 50% of the population are stupider than the mean person" is (probably) also right.
Average can be used to mean "mean" or "median".
I like the old chestnut "Most welshmen have more than the average number of legs".
PS: the Welsh joke is amusing, if a bit harsh on Welshmen
Though it really ought be 'very, very, very slightly more than the average number of legs'.
Not sure about the English - we may have more than our fair share of three legged oddities.0 -
only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory - that's a frightening statisticHYUFD said:
6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory with Yougov, 8% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Brexit Party, only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Tory.DougSeal said:
Why do you think that Brexit is the single most important issue for all of these Labour leave voters, making them turn their backs on a party they have traditionally followed? There are other issues than Brexit in the world even if sometimes it doesn't feel like it. Have the Conservative Party been forgiven for everything else that they have been perceived to have done in the North? I don't get this Leave = Tory/Brexit Vote. Plenty of Labour voters disagreed with the Iraq War but didn't flood to the LD's.HYUFD said:
Which if those Labour Leave voters all vote Brexit Party and Tory would be enough for the Tories to take those Labour Leave marginal seats
The evidence is there0
