politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets respond to Johnson’s Charles the First Mov
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I feel for you, but I don’t think I love youGallowgate said:
What did I say that was untrue or incorrect?isam said:
SadGallowgate said:
Who was? Not the Lib Dems. Not the SNP. Not the Green Party. Not Plaid Cymru.isam said:
They were elected on the promise of respecting the referendum resultGallowgate said:
Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
If you mean the Labour Party, they were elected to implement their version of a soft Brexit. Not any old Brexit. Certainly not no deal.0 -
Justin GreeningByronic said:
Has to be Gauke?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
But this isn’t true. I’ve just been reading the FTPA (how tragic is that. In the Greek sunshine)NickPalmer said:The key comments so far seem to me to be the anti-Brexit but anti-Corbyn rebels (not least Grieve) who are starting to switch to backing a VONC instead of pursuing new legislation. If that gathers steam then Johnson could be out by the end of next week, irrespective of what happens then.
Boris does not have to resign, immediately, after a VONC. It’s just a convention. He can sit tight and call an election for a date after Brexit Halloween.0 -
Not really, because Boris is going to lose the vote next week and there'll be an election or a caretaker PM. That's all part of his plan.Jonathan said:Boris has put the Queen in an impossible position, the one thing you are not supposed to do.
Regardless of what side of the Brexit argument your on, that surely is a mistake. Possibly a career ending mistake.0 -
Oh it does, provided he delivers Brexit Boris almost certainly wins the next general election, if he does not he won'twilliamglenn said:Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
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Not if he is replaced by a GONU, or the FTPA is subsequently amendedByronic said:
But this isn’t true. I’ve just been reading the FTPA (how tragic is that. In the Greek sunshine)NickPalmer said:The key comments so far seem to me to be the anti-Brexit but anti-Corbyn rebels (not least Grieve) who are starting to switch to backing a VONC instead of pursuing new legislation. If that gathers steam then Johnson could be out by the end of next week, irrespective of what happens then.
Boris does not have to resign. It’s just a convention. He can sit tight and call an election for a date after Brexit Halloween.0 -
With a minority Government, the House of Commons can take back responsibility for its own business, and then someone tables a Bill repealing the FTPA.MarqueeMark said:
I'd supposed the issue was who could propose that change to the FTPA. Wouldn't it be for the Govt. to propose such changes? How does the Opposition bring it about?Richard_Tyndall said:
I did wonder about this last month. It only takes a simple majority to revoke the FTPA so itbis easier to do that than actually get an election passed. .Stereotomy said:
If parliament has taken control of the agenda, is it possible for them to first pass a change to the FTPA then a VONC?DavidL said:Let's assume for the moment that the proposed application for interim interdict doesn't succeed. Let's assume that Parliament convenes next week and a VONC is moved and passed. Do Labour support a motion for instant dissolution of Parliament or do we wait 14 days? Surely it has to be instant if we are to have an election before 31st October. Furthermore how does dissolution and the FTPA interact? How can you have a vote of confidence if Parliament isn't sitting? I think that it is at least implied that Parliament is sitting for those 14 days.
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Must say I find this rather moot. She is paid, put up in great luxury, honoured and respected around the world.Jonathan said:Boris has put the Queen in an impossible position, the one thing you are not supposed to do.
Regardless of what side of the Brexit argument your on, that surely is a mistake. Possibly a career ending mistake.
All because, as Head of State, this is her job. To decide precisely these things.0 -
I think Boris has announced this move now because he wants the remain actors in parliament to move against him before the actual point of no return for Brexit. I'd discounted a GE in October as a possibility yesterday, I think it is back on potentially now.NickPalmer said:The key comments so far seem to me to be the anti-Brexit but anti-Corbyn rebels (not least Grieve) who are starting to switch to backing a VONC instead of pursuing new legislation. If that gathers steam then Johnson could be out by the end of next week, irrespective of what happens then.
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I don’t think that’s true if he just sits in number 10, promising to call a vote. After Brexit.not_on_fire said:
Not if he is replaced by a GONU, or the FTPA is subsequently amendedByronic said:
But this isn’t true. I’ve just been reading the FTPA (how tragic is that. In the Greek sunshine)NickPalmer said:The key comments so far seem to me to be the anti-Brexit but anti-Corbyn rebels (not least Grieve) who are starting to switch to backing a VONC instead of pursuing new legislation. If that gathers steam then Johnson could be out by the end of next week, irrespective of what happens then.
Boris does not have to resign. It’s just a convention. He can sit tight and call an election for a date after Brexit Halloween.0 -
Gabs2 said:
A new election is called by the VONC, with a 14 day waiting period, unless a VOC happens. Boris not resigning and not recommending a successor means there is no alternative government to get a VOC.eek said:
Boris doesn't call a new election - he can't do that under the FTPA.Gabs2 said:
With a VONC, Boris will call a new election and remain as Prime Minister. So no extension and No Deal.Byronic said:Wild prediction: the VONC will succeed, Boris will fall, there will be an A50 extension under a caretaker government, probably Corbyn. At the ensuing GE Boris will win, but he will be promising... what?
There my clairvoyant skills expire.
That would clearly be something the courts could prevent. Quite apart from it going completely against the schema of the legislation, if that were permissible a Prime Minister would not need to resign after losing a general election and could instead force endless elections, clinging to office.Gabs2 said:
A new election is called by the VONC, with a 14 day waiting period, unless a VOC happens. Boris not resigning and not recommending a successor means there is no alternative government to get a VOC.eek said:
Boris doesn't call a new election - he can't do that under the FTPA.Gabs2 said:
With a VONC, Boris will call a new election and remain as Prime Minister. So no extension and No Deal.Byronic said:Wild prediction: the VONC will succeed, Boris will fall, there will be an A50 extension under a caretaker government, probably Corbyn. At the ensuing GE Boris will win, but he will be promising... what?
There my clairvoyant skills expire.0 -
You actually follow me on Twitter. Hilarious.isam said:
1.01 weighed inFrancisUrquhart said:Oh god are we now going to get the borefest of a signature count update every 15mins ala the clarkson one and the last anti-brexit one.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1166685640781705216?s=21
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Yes, I get a lot of "the Liberal Democrats are neither Liberal nor Democratic" from braying Tories, but any idea that they are "conservative" is laughable. They are playing with fire.Jonathan said:Boris has put the Queen in an impossible position, the one thing you are not supposed to do.
Regardless of what side of the Brexit argument your on, that surely is a mistake. Possibly a career ending mistake.
Personally I do not forgive the crap that has been served up to us over the past four years, we have gone from "easiest deal in history" to "only a "no deal" is the "will of the people"" . The insults from Leavers: from "Remoaners", "Saboteurs", to "citizens of nowhere", at no stage have the hard leavers ever tried to offer a compromise.
I think a lot of reasonable people have finally had their patience exhausted. Nye Bevan once protested that he had not said that Tories were "vermin", when he had actually said they were "lower than vermin"... I think the majority view here could well be "F*** you Tories, this is where you get off".
Certainly, this attempted coup deserves severe punishment.0 -
The allure is strong and politicians are adept at justifying a u-turn, often for good reasons.surbiton19 said:
But they were so set against, it would take heroic effort to self justify.0 -
Both.TOPPING said:
You earlier said that Boris was right to prorogue parliament as it had thwarted the will of the people over Brexit. Boris said in his interview that it was nothing to do with Brexit, it was to push forward his domestic agenda.HYUFD said:
Wings over Scotland now saying UK Leave vote must be respected but Scots should seek independence from a post Brexit UKByronic said:The SNP’s position confuses me, here.
They are, apparently, fighting tooth and nail against No Deal Brexit.
Which is fair enough. But how does that square with their independence campaign, if they ever get a 2nd referendum?
“Vote YES for an instant No Deal Scottish exit: from the United Kingdom AND the EU!”
That seems quite a hard sell, in the circs
https://wingsoverscotland.com/coup-versus-coup/
Which of you is right?
Parliament would be prorogued until after an EU council meeting that may have agreed a technical solution for the Irish border and an amended Withdrawal Agreement, then a Queens speech for Boris' domestic agenda and no time to stop No Deal by October 31st if No amended Deal agreed0 -
Have I missed much?
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What on earth was Corbyn doing all morning? His gardening?Scott_P said:0 -
You may have to go down the columns to a quite unusual extent....AndyJS said:
Good idea. I could get my target lists ready.FrancisUrquhart said:Can we just stop all the dicking around for the next two months and just get to the GE.
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I actually don’t. Mildly amusingSouthamObserver said:
You actually follow me on Twitter. Hilarious.isam said:
1.01 weighed inFrancisUrquhart said:Oh god are we now going to get the borefest of a signature count update every 15mins ala the clarkson one and the last anti-brexit one.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1166685640781705216?s=210 -
The majority of the votes cast went to parties that rejected a No Deal Brexit.isam said:
They were elected on the promise of respecting the referendum resultGallowgate said:
Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
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Rubbish, man - it's the stuff of life. Plus we need someone on here who tells us the real reason why the UK voted for Brexit (foreigners) rather than the claptrap spouted by the petit bourgeoisie (sovereignty).isam said:
How bored must I be?TOPPING said:
Good to see you posting again, Sam. And agree wholeheartedly. The fact that our society could be as heartless as to leave behind Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of our national disgraces.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
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Which may have been his plan, risky though it is. This does look like a pushback at the plan announced yesterday.NickPalmer said:The key comments so far seem to me to be the anti-Brexit but anti-Corbyn rebels (not least Grieve) who are starting to switch to backing a VONC instead of pursuing new legislation. If that gathers steam then Johnson could be out by the end of next week, irrespective of what happens then.
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But I thought he was delivering Brexit anyway, so what does a 5 week prorogation change?HYUFD said:
Oh it does, provided he delivers Brexit Boris almost certainly wins the next general election, if he does not he won'twilliamglenn said:Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
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You on your third bottle Sean?Byronic said:Wild prediction: the VONC will succeed, Boris will fall, there will be an A50 extension under a caretaker government, probably Corbyn. At the ensuing GE Boris will win, but he will be promising... what?
There my clairvoyant skills expire.
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Yeah, of course. Ha, ha!isam said:
I actually don’t. Mildly amusingSouthamObserver said:
You actually follow me on Twitter. Hilarious.isam said:
1.01 weighed inFrancisUrquhart said:Oh god are we now going to get the borefest of a signature count update every 15mins ala the clarkson one and the last anti-brexit one.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1166685640781705216?s=21
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Hello @HYUFD. You are becoming something of the resident seer, having predicted it right since May fell. You were banging on about prorogation last night, to much scepticism.HYUFD said:
Oh it does, provided he delivers Brexit Boris almost certainly wins the next general election, if he does not he won'twilliamglenn said:Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
So, O Wise One. What happens next?0 -
It's worth repeating this that just appeared on my timeline.
https://twitter.com/JackWDart/status/1166384551251386368
The idea that No Deal finishes this once and for all is for the birds.0 -
HYUFDHYUFD said:
Oh it does, provided he delivers Brexit Boris almost certainly wins the next general election, if he does not he won'twilliamglenn said:Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
I wrote earlier to say I owed you an apology for doubting your prediction yesterday that Boris would prorogue parliament. You are right and I was wrong and well done on being so correct on this one0 -
It stops Parliament trying to force another extension beyond October 31stwilliamglenn said:
But I thought he was delivering Brexit anyway, so what does a 5 week prorogation change?HYUFD said:
Oh it does, provided he delivers Brexit Boris almost certainly wins the next general election, if he does not he won'twilliamglenn said:Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
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6 weeks and NoGabs2 said:
How long did he do it for? Was there a legal challenge back then?Richard_Tyndall said:
For all that I disagree with Boris doing this, Major is the last person who should be criticising him since he used the same tactic to avoid nothing more than personal and party embarrassment.Scott_P said:
That said it is still the wrong thing for Boris to do. I am just pointing out Major's hypocrisy0 -
You can't both be because that's not what Boris said. Boris said it was nothing to do with Brexit. You said it was precisely because of Brexit. One of you is a lying twat and you know what, @HYUFD, as one of your big fans on here I can tell you that I don't think it's you.HYUFD said:
Both.TOPPING said:
You earlier said that Boris was right to prorogue parliament as it had thwarted the will of the people over Brexit. Boris said in his interview that it was nothing to do with Brexit, it was to push forward his domestic agenda.HYUFD said:
Wings over Scotland now saying UK Leave vote must be respected but Scots should seek independence from a post Brexit UKByronic said:The SNP’s position confuses me, here.
They are, apparently, fighting tooth and nail against No Deal Brexit.
Which is fair enough. But how does that square with their independence campaign, if they ever get a 2nd referendum?
“Vote YES for an instant No Deal Scottish exit: from the United Kingdom AND the EU!”
That seems quite a hard sell, in the circs
https://wingsoverscotland.com/coup-versus-coup/
Which of you is right?
Parliament would be prorogued until after an EU council meeting that may have agreed a technical solution for the Irish border and an amended Withdrawal Agreement, then a Queens speech for Boris' domestic agenda and no time to stop No Deal by October 31st if No amended Deal agreed0 -
Looking at the petition map is quite interesting... the Remain redoubts of Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton, and er... Truro and Ceredigion seem to be leading the charge.0
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Anyone know what the earliest possible date for a general election is?0
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But our system is an odd one, it is not precisely her job to decide these things even if the rules technically say that is the job. It's her job to decide so long as she never actually has to decide.dixiedean said:
Must say I find this rather moot. She is paid, put up in great luxury, honoured and respected around the world.Jonathan said:Boris has put the Queen in an impossible position, the one thing you are not supposed to do.
Regardless of what side of the Brexit argument your on, that surely is a mistake. Possibly a career ending mistake.
All because, as Head of State, this is her job. To decide precisely these things.
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It is a period of civil war. REMAINER spaceships, striking from a hidden base, have won their first victory against the evil TORY EMPIRE.KentRising said:Is it okay to talk about "war" then now?
During the battle, Remainer spies managed to steal secret plans to the Tories' ultimate weapon, the PROROGATION, an armoured space station with enough power to destroy an entire parliamentary session!
Pursued by the Tories’ sinister agents, Princess Anna Heidi Jo races home aboard her starship, custodian of the stolen plans that can save her people and restore freedom of movement to the CONTINENT…0 -
No it is futile and I’d say a hinderance to happiness.TOPPING said:
Rubbish, man - it's the stuff of life. Plus we need someone on here who tells us the real reason why the UK voted for Brexit (foreigners) rather than the claptrap spouted by the petit bourgeoisie (sovereignty).isam said:
How bored must I be?TOPPING said:
Good to see you posting again, Sam. And agree wholeheartedly. The fact that our society could be as heartless as to leave behind Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of our national disgraces.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
The reason wasn’t foreigners, it was unsolicited changes to the living conditions and the labour market of the poorest in the UK imposed by our government plus their refusal to listen/vitriolic response to feedback0 -
Have You Underestimated Futurologists' Dexterity?Big_G_NorthWales said:
HYUFDHYUFD said:
Oh it does, provided he delivers Brexit Boris almost certainly wins the next general election, if he does not he won'twilliamglenn said:Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
I wrote earlier to say I owed you an apology for doubting your prediction yesterday that Boris would prorogue parliament. You are right and I was wrong and well done on being so correct on this one0 -
I think Sir John Major is a bit older and wiser now.Richard_Tyndall said:
For all that I disagree with Boris doing this, Major is the last person who should be criticising him since he used the same tactic to avoid nothing more than personal and party embarrassment.Scott_P said:
And the bastards are in the ascendent.0 -
Except it doesn't.HYUFD said:
It stops Parliament trying to force another extension beyond October 31stwilliamglenn said:
But I thought he was delivering Brexit anyway, so what does a 5 week prorogation change?HYUFD said:
Oh it does, provided he delivers Brexit Boris almost certainly wins the next general election, if he does not he won'twilliamglenn said:Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
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Watch. The. Polling......williamglenn said:Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
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There seems to be some doublethink from leavers like Hannan or Zac Goldsmith defending the prorogation on grounds that it is perfectly normal and bog standard. Is the prorogation designed to go over the head of parliament, in which case it is a constitutional crisis, or is it just a standard procedure in which case why make it 5 weeks? And if Parliament is supposedly not listening to the "people" (the people being no deal cultists, because we even have leave voters on here who do not support no deal) why not simply say he wants an election, why go through this skullduggery of suspending parliament first?0
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A tediously repetitive response of yours, but I’m afraid to say I don’t follow you on Twitter.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, of course. Ha, ha!isam said:
I actually don’t. Mildly amusingSouthamObserver said:
You actually follow me on Twitter. Hilarious.isam said:
1.01 weighed inFrancisUrquhart said:Oh god are we now going to get the borefest of a signature count update every 15mins ala the clarkson one and the last anti-brexit one.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1166685640781705216?s=210 -
Thanks BigGBig_G_NorthWales said:
HYUFDHYUFD said:
Oh it does, provided he delivers Brexit Boris almost certainly wins the next general election, if he does not he won'twilliamglenn said:Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
I wrote earlier to say I owed you an apology for doubting your prediction yesterday that Boris would prorogue parliament. You are right and I was wrong and well done on being so correct on this one0 -
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Thanks. October 10th would be the same date as the second 1974 election IIRC.eek said:
October 10th if called on September 4th by a 2/3rds vote of Parliament.AndyJS said:Anyone know what the earliest possible date for a general election is?
Otherwise I think it's the 24th (5 weeks after 14 days trying to create a government)0 -
Truro and Ceredigion both voted Remain at the referendum.Benpointer said:Looking at the petition map is quite interesting... the Remain redoubts of Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton, and er... Truro and Ceredigion seem to be leading the charge.
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There was no need for no deal, but it has come to this because MPs elected on a promise to enact the referendum result voted against the PMs dealSouthamObserver said:
The majority of the votes cast went to parties that rejected a No Deal Brexit.isam said:
They were elected on the promise of respecting the referendum resultGallowgate said:
Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
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Which, of course, is why the older you were the more likely you were to vote for Brexit, regardless of where in the UK you lived or your financial circumstances.isam said:
No it is futile and I’d say a hinderance to happiness.TOPPING said:
Rubbish, man - it's the stuff of life. Plus we need someone on here who tells us the real reason why the UK voted for Brexit (foreigners) rather than the claptrap spouted by the petit bourgeoisie (sovereignty).isam said:
How bored must I be?TOPPING said:
Good to see you posting again, Sam. And agree wholeheartedly. The fact that our society could be as heartless as to leave behind Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of our national disgraces.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
The reason wasn’t foreigners, it was unsolicited changes to the living conditions and the labour market of the poorest in the UK imposed by our government plus their refusal to listen/vitriolic response to feedback
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Reading the FTPA won't help you there, because that particular piece of legislation is about what you have to do to dissolve parliament and call and election, not about how a Prime Minister who's lost the confidence of the House is removed and a new one selected.Byronic said:
But this isn’t true. I’ve just been reading the FTPA (how tragic is that. In the Greek sunshine)NickPalmer said:The key comments so far seem to me to be the anti-Brexit but anti-Corbyn rebels (not least Grieve) who are starting to switch to backing a VONC instead of pursuing new legislation. If that gathers steam then Johnson could be out by the end of next week, irrespective of what happens then.
Boris does not have to resign, immediately, after a VONC. It’s just a convention. He can sit tight and call an election for a date after Brexit Halloween.
That said, it's true that Boris doesn't have to resign, provided the Commons don't look like they could get behind anyone else.0 -
Yes but as I stated earlier personally I would:-TheScreamingEagles said:
Keep to Cooper Letwin next week.
Request a VoNC on September 11th for the first day Parliament returns - get things lined up.
Let Boris stew over that time.0 -
General election in November most likely, with the EU granting a short extension until general election day, voters can then choose No Deal with Boris or most likely no Brexit with Corbyn the LDs and SNP (with a small chance the EU agrees a technical alternative to the backstop and an amended Withdrawal Agreement passes the Commons by October 31st)dixiedean said:
Hello @HYUFD. You are becoming something of the resident seer, having predicted it right since May fell. You were banging on about prorogation last night, to much scepticism.HYUFD said:
Oh it does, provided he delivers Brexit Boris almost certainly wins the next general election, if he does not he won'twilliamglenn said:Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
So, O Wise One. What happens next?0 -
They did not promise to enact the referendum result by an arbitrary deadline.isam said:
There was no need for no deal, but it has come to this because MPs elected on a promise to enact the referendum result voted against the PMs dealSouthamObserver said:
The majority of the votes cast went to parties that rejected a No Deal Brexit.isam said:
They were elected on the promise of respecting the referendum resultGallowgate said:
Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
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Jezza loves a good protest! Though he might be getting a bit old for a sit-in in the Palace of Westminster.FrancisUrquhart said:
Maybe they'll allow him to go home at night and return in the day?0 -
Opposition MPs really need to start referring to him by his second name of "Johnson". "Boris" conjures up an image of bumbling buffoonery... that's probably more on your side than Corbyn. Johnson doesn't - its a more statesmanlike title that creates an apparent contradiction with the unstatesmanlike action (Progroguing) that you're trying to get the message over about.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
But the only majority in the commons has been for invoking article 50...
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/11666850704905543690 -
So what? That does not make No Deal the only option.isam said:
There was no need for no deal, but it has come to this because MPs elected on a promise to enact the referendum result voted against the PMs dealSouthamObserver said:
The majority of the votes cast went to parties that rejected a No Deal Brexit.isam said:
They were elected on the promise of respecting the referendum resultGallowgate said:
Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
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How did people who like to boast to strangers of their wealth whilst simultaneously playing victim tend to vote?SouthamObserver said:
Which, of course, is why the older you were the more likely you were to vote for Brexit, regardless of where in the UK you lived or your financial circumstances.isam said:
No it is futile and I’d say a hinderance to happiness.TOPPING said:
Rubbish, man - it's the stuff of life. Plus we need someone on here who tells us the real reason why the UK voted for Brexit (foreigners) rather than the claptrap spouted by the petit bourgeoisie (sovereignty).isam said:
How bored must I be?TOPPING said:
Good to see you posting again, Sam. And agree wholeheartedly. The fact that our society could be as heartless as to leave behind Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of our national disgraces.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
The reason wasn’t foreigners, it was unsolicited changes to the living conditions and the labour market of the poorest in the UK imposed by our government plus their refusal to listen/vitriolic response to feedback0 -
Didnt they find a lot of those occupy lot in london where doing exactly that...inbetween trips to Starbucks for a coffee.GIN1138 said:
Jezza loves a good protest! Though he might be getting a bit old for a sit-in in the Palace of Westminster.FrancisUrquhart said:
Maybe they'll allow him to go home at night and return in the day?0 -
Boris is forcing people to agree with the likes of Corbyn and Grieve - that alone is awful enough.0
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If Boris only cared about Boris he wouldn't be risking his PM'ship like this. He'd be doing a Theresa May and kicking the can as far down the road as he could.FrancisUrquhart said:Occupy parliament...
https://twitter.com/DawnButlerBrent/status/1166671453086863362?s=200 -
All that’s leftSouthamObserver said:
So what? That does not make No Deal the only option.isam said:
There was no need for no deal, but it has come to this because MPs elected on a promise to enact the referendum result voted against the PMs dealSouthamObserver said:
The majority of the votes cast went to parties that rejected a No Deal Brexit.isam said:
They were elected on the promise of respecting the referendum resultGallowgate said:
Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
0 -
One thing is clear from all this. Our system is a total shambles.kle4 said:.
But our system is an odd one, it is not precisely her job to decide these things even if the rules technically say that is the job. It's her job to decide so long as she never actually has to decide.dixiedean said:
Must say I find this rather moot. She is paid, put up in great luxury, honoured and respected around the world.Jonathan said:Boris has put the Queen in an impossible position, the one thing you are not supposed to do.
Regardless of what side of the Brexit argument your on, that surely is a mistake. Possibly a career ending mistake.
All because, as Head of State, this is her job. To decide precisely these things.0 -
What about your favourite wordcloud??isam said:
No it is futile and I’d say a hinderance to happiness.TOPPING said:
Rubbish, man - it's the stuff of life. Plus we need someone on here who tells us the real reason why the UK voted for Brexit (foreigners) rather than the claptrap spouted by the petit bourgeoisie (sovereignty).isam said:
How bored must I be?TOPPING said:
Good to see you posting again, Sam. And agree wholeheartedly. The fact that our society could be as heartless as to leave behind Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of our national disgraces.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
The reason wasn’t foreigners, it was unsolicited changes to the living conditions and the labour market of the poorest in the UK imposed by our government plus their refusal to listen/vitriolic response to feedback0 -
Eh? You are predicting a Conservative defeat as your central case?HYUFD said:
General election in November most likely, with the EU granting a short extension until general election day, voters can then choose No Deal with Boris or most likely no Brexit with Corbyn the LDs and SNP (with a small chance the EU agrees a technical alternative to the backstop and an amended Withdrawal Agreement passes the Commons by October 31st)dixiedean said:
Hello @HYUFD. You are becoming something of the resident seer, having predicted it right since May fell. You were banging on about prorogation last night, to much scepticism.HYUFD said:
Oh it does, provided he delivers Brexit Boris almost certainly wins the next general election, if he does not he won'twilliamglenn said:Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
So, O Wise One. What happens next?0 -
No. That's all that is left by some arbitrary deadline.isam said:
All that’s leftSouthamObserver said:
So what? That does not make No Deal the only option.isam said:
There was no need for no deal, but it has come to this because MPs elected on a promise to enact the referendum result voted against the PMs dealSouthamObserver said:
The majority of the votes cast went to parties that rejected a No Deal Brexit.isam said:
They were elected on the promise of respecting the referendum resultGallowgate said:
Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
0 -
If the House votes not to rise. Won't they be doing precisely that?FrancisUrquhart said:Occupy parliament...
https://twitter.com/DawnButlerBrent/status/1166671453086863362?s=200 -
Of course it was frustration with the effects of mass immigration, that’s what I described. You like to act like it was down to a hatred of foreigners, which is something completely different.TOPPING said:
What about your favourite wordcloud??isam said:
No it is futile and I’d say a hinderance to happiness.TOPPING said:
Rubbish, man - it's the stuff of life. Plus we need someone on here who tells us the real reason why the UK voted for Brexit (foreigners) rather than the claptrap spouted by the petit bourgeoisie (sovereignty).isam said:
How bored must I be?TOPPING said:
Good to see you posting again, Sam. And agree wholeheartedly. The fact that our society could be as heartless as to leave behind Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of our national disgraces.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
The reason wasn’t foreigners, it was unsolicited changes to the living conditions and the labour market of the poorest in the UK imposed by our government plus their refusal to listen/vitriolic response to feedback0 -
I've seen this theory before and I dont buy it. I think obsessing about if he is called Boris or Johnson or BoJo the fantabulous homunculus is totally irrelevant to how he is perceived and how people react.Pulpstar said:
Opposition MPs really need to start referring to him by his second name of "Johnson". "Boris" conjures up an image of bumbling buffoonery... that's probably more on your side than Corbyn. Johnson doesn't - its a more statesmanlike title that creates an apparent contradiction with the unstatesmanlike action (Progroguing) that you're trying to get the message over about.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
I think @malcolmg voted SNP. Just a guess, mind.isam said:
How did people who like to boast to strangers of their wealth whilst simultaneously playing victim tend to vote?SouthamObserver said:
Which, of course, is why the older you were the more likely you were to vote for Brexit, regardless of where in the UK you lived or your financial circumstances.isam said:
No it is futile and I’d say a hinderance to happiness.TOPPING said:
Rubbish, man - it's the stuff of life. Plus we need someone on here who tells us the real reason why the UK voted for Brexit (foreigners) rather than the claptrap spouted by the petit bourgeoisie (sovereignty).isam said:
How bored must I be?TOPPING said:
Good to see you posting again, Sam. And agree wholeheartedly. The fact that our society could be as heartless as to leave behind Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of our national disgraces.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
The reason wasn’t foreigners, it was unsolicited changes to the living conditions and the labour market of the poorest in the UK imposed by our government plus their refusal to listen/vitriolic response to feedback0 -
Fairly evenly split, but on average, leave, I suspect.isam said:
How did people who like to boast to strangers of their wealth whilst simultaneously playing victim tend to vote?SouthamObserver said:
Which, of course, is why the older you were the more likely you were to vote for Brexit, regardless of where in the UK you lived or your financial circumstances.isam said:
No it is futile and I’d say a hinderance to happiness.TOPPING said:
Rubbish, man - it's the stuff of life. Plus we need someone on here who tells us the real reason why the UK voted for Brexit (foreigners) rather than the claptrap spouted by the petit bourgeoisie (sovereignty).isam said:
How bored must I be?TOPPING said:
Good to see you posting again, Sam. And agree wholeheartedly. The fact that our society could be as heartless as to leave behind Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of our national disgraces.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
The reason wasn’t foreigners, it was unsolicited changes to the living conditions and the labour market of the poorest in the UK imposed by our government plus their refusal to listen/vitriolic response to feedback0 -
Not for too long I.trust. I doubt the bathroom facilities in the HoC match those the taxpayer paid for her to enjoyFrancisUrquhart said:Occupy parliament...
https://twitter.com/DawnButlerBrent/status/1166671453086863362?s=200 -
The vote to leave was over three years ago. It suits remainers to filibuster forever, that’s why we need a deadline. We’ve already missed a couple, or was it one?Gallowgate said:
No. That's all that is left by some arbitrary deadline.isam said:
All that’s leftSouthamObserver said:
So what? That does not make No Deal the only option.isam said:
There was no need for no deal, but it has come to this because MPs elected on a promise to enact the referendum result voted against the PMs dealSouthamObserver said:
The majority of the votes cast went to parties that rejected a No Deal Brexit.isam said:
They were elected on the promise of respecting the referendum resultGallowgate said:
Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
0 -
They've done that already. It's called Common Worship. I'm not a great fan tbh (although I liked the previous effort, the Alternative Service Book) - some of the new language strikes me as trite.kle4 said:0 -
No, we don't.isam said:
The vote to leave was over three years ago. It suits remainers to filibuster forever, that’s why we need a deadline. We’ve already missed a couple, or was it one?Gallowgate said:
No. That's all that is left by some arbitrary deadline.isam said:
All that’s leftSouthamObserver said:
So what? That does not make No Deal the only option.isam said:
There was no need for no deal, but it has come to this because MPs elected on a promise to enact the referendum result voted against the PMs dealSouthamObserver said:
The majority of the votes cast went to parties that rejected a No Deal Brexit.isam said:
They were elected on the promise of respecting the referendum resultGallowgate said:
Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
0 -
It would be good if we could get a Blairite or a Lib Dem as alternative PM. Their added credibility as PM would be a big asset in defeating the Corbynites.edmundintokyo said:
Reading the FTPA won't help you there, because that particular piece of legislation is about what you have to do to dissolve parliament and call and election, not about how a Prime Minister who's lost the confidence of the House is removed and a new one selected.Byronic said:
But this isn’t true. I’ve just been reading the FTPA (how tragic is that. In the Greek sunshine)NickPalmer said:The key comments so far seem to me to be the anti-Brexit but anti-Corbyn rebels (not least Grieve) who are starting to switch to backing a VONC instead of pursuing new legislation. If that gathers steam then Johnson could be out by the end of next week, irrespective of what happens then.
Boris does not have to resign, immediately, after a VONC. It’s just a convention. He can sit tight and call an election for a date after Brexit Halloween.
That said, it's true that Boris doesn't have to resign, provided the Commons don't look like they could get behind anyone else.0 -
Boris surely can't ask for an extension. Under any circumstances.HYUFD said:
General election in November most likely, with the EU granting a short extension until general election day, voters can then choose No Deal with Boris or most likely no Brexit with Corbyn the LDs and SNP (with a small chance the EU agrees a technical alternative to the backstop and an amended Withdrawal Agreement passes the Commons by October 31st)dixiedean said:
Hello @HYUFD. You are becoming something of the resident seer, having predicted it right since May fell. You were banging on about prorogation last night, to much scepticism.HYUFD said:
Oh it does, provided he delivers Brexit Boris almost certainly wins the next general election, if he does not he won'twilliamglenn said:Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
So, O Wise One. What happens next?
I'm with @Stark_Dawning on this. He is trying to scare the bejeezus out of people to pass a deal between the EU council meeting and Oct 31st. "A short extension" is hardly "do or die" and he would rightly be pilloried for it.
By you primarily of course although we would also curse Boris because that would mean we would have to trawl through PB to find all the posts of yours where you said we would leave by Oct 31st.0 -
No idea, but I do know how self-pitying xenophobes and racists did.isam said:
How did people who like to boast to strangers of their wealth whilst simultaneously playing victim tend to vote?SouthamObserver said:
Which, of course, is why the older you were the more likely you were to vote for Brexit, regardless of where in the UK you lived or your financial circumstances.isam said:
No it is futile and I’d say a hinderance to happiness.TOPPING said:
Rubbish, man - it's the stuff of life. Plus we need someone on here who tells us the real reason why the UK voted for Brexit (foreigners) rather than the claptrap spouted by the petit bourgeoisie (sovereignty).isam said:
How bored must I be?TOPPING said:
Good to see you posting again, Sam. And agree wholeheartedly. The fact that our society could be as heartless as to leave behind Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of our national disgraces.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
The reason wasn’t foreigners, it was unsolicited changes to the living conditions and the labour market of the poorest in the UK imposed by our government plus their refusal to listen/vitriolic response to feedback
0 -
On the other hand, ‘the arse Johnson’ ought to see more usage.kle4 said:
I've seen this theory before and I dont buy it. I think obsessing about if he is called Boris or Johnson or BoJo the fantabulous homunculus is totally irrelevant to how he is perceived and how people react.Pulpstar said:
Opposition MPs really need to start referring to him by his second name of "Johnson". "Boris" conjures up an image of bumbling buffoonery... that's probably more on your side than Corbyn. Johnson doesn't - its a more statesmanlike title that creates an apparent contradiction with the unstatesmanlike action (Progroguing) that you're trying to get the message over about.FrancisUrquhart said:2 -
He cantGabs2 said:
With a VONC, Boris will call a new election and remain as Prime Minister. So no extension and No Deal.Byronic said:Wild prediction: the VONC will succeed, Boris will fall, there will be an A50 extension under a caretaker government, probably Corbyn. At the ensuing GE Boris will win, but he will be promising... what?
There my clairvoyant skills expire.0 -
AgreedPulpstar said:
Opposition MPs really need to start referring to him by his second name of "Johnson". "Boris" conjures up an image of bumbling buffoonery... that's probably more on your side than Corbyn. Johnson doesn't - its a more statesmanlike title that creates an apparent contradiction with the unstatesmanlike action (Progroguing) that you're trying to get the message over about.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Ooh touchy! 🤣SouthamObserver said:
No idea, but I do know how self-pitying xenophobes and racists did.isam said:
How did people who like to boast to strangers of their wealth whilst simultaneously playing victim tend to vote?SouthamObserver said:
Which, of course, is why the older you were the more likely you were to vote for Brexit, regardless of where in the UK you lived or your financial circumstances.isam said:
No it is futile and I’d say a hinderance to happiness.TOPPING said:
Rubbish, man - it's the stuff of life. Plus we need someone on here who tells us the real reason why the UK voted for Brexit (foreigners) rather than the claptrap spouted by the petit bourgeoisie (sovereignty).isam said:
How bored must I be?TOPPING said:
Good to see you posting again, Sam. And agree wholeheartedly. The fact that our society could be as heartless as to leave behind Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of our national disgraces.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
The reason wasn’t foreigners, it was unsolicited changes to the living conditions and the labour market of the poorest in the UK imposed by our government plus their refusal to listen/vitriolic response to feedback
0 -
218,141FrancisUrquhart said:Oh god are we now going to get the borefest of a signature count update every 15mins ala the clarkson one and the last anti-brexit one.
1 -
If no one else can command confidence I think the convention is he stays as PM.nichomar said:
He cantGabs2 said:
With a VONC, Boris will call a new election and remain as Prime Minister. So no extension and No Deal.Byronic said:Wild prediction: the VONC will succeed, Boris will fall, there will be an A50 extension under a caretaker government, probably Corbyn. At the ensuing GE Boris will win, but he will be promising... what?
There my clairvoyant skills expire.0 -
Boris of course ideally wants the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop to pass the Commons by October 31st with EU agreement.TOPPING said:
Boris surely can't ask for an extension. Under any circumstances.HYUFD said:
General election in November most likely, with the EU granting a short extension until general election day, voters can then choose No Deal with Boris or most likely no Brexit with Corbyn the LDs and SNP (with a small chance the EU agrees a technical alternative to the backstop and an amended Withdrawal Agreement passes the Commons by October 31st)dixiedean said:
Hello @HYUFD. You are becoming something of the resident seer, having predicted it right since May fell. You were banging on about prorogation last night, to much scepticism.HYUFD said:
Oh it does, provided he delivers Brexit Boris almost certainly wins the next general election, if he does not he won'twilliamglenn said:Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
So, O Wise One. What happens next?
I'm with @Stark_Dawning on this. He is trying to scare the bejeezus out of people to pass a deal between the EU council meeting and Oct 31st. "A short extension" is hardly "do or die" and he would rightly be pilloried for it.
By you primarily of course although we would also curse Boris because that would mean we would have to trawl through PB to find all the posts of yours where you said we would leave by Oct 31st.
Otherwise he will go to No Deal but the Commons likely VONCs him then and forces a general election and asks the EU for an extension until polling day, Boris will not ask for any extension but have to accept it until polling day if the Commons votes for it but he would still campaign for No Deal on that scenario if he wins the election0 -
Parliamentary sovereignty is over legislation. Parliament makes the law, it doesn't govern, that is the prerogative of HMG while the courts uphold legislation. The problem is that MPs have not made a political choice over Brexit, instead they have rejected every choice that has been presented to them. Even now, there is no majority in parliament for anything except for prolonging the agony by kicking the can even further down the road. The Government is offering Parliament an opportunity to make a decision. It can accept any withdrawal agreement that Boris brings back, it can accept No Deal, it can force a General Election or pass new legislation that overrides the current legal position that we leave on 31 October. The EU gave us an extension to sort this out, the Government is at least trying to do this, all we get from the Opposition is outrage.RochdalePioneers said:
The lack of constitutional awareness is frankly astounding.CaptainBuzzkill said:
And says...AlastairMeeks said:
Imagine you're the barrister in front of an eminent judge with limited patience. Your opposite number is alleging that you're doing this to frustrate democracy. The judge peers over his varifocals and says:
'Get on with implementing the referendum result.'
The lack of self-awareness of remainers is frankly astounding.
1. Parliament is sovereign. Now that is, whilst still in the EU.
2. No parliament can bind the hands of a successor parliament
3. 2015 parliament enacts a referendum. In our constitution power resides in the Crown in Parliament. Referenda are legally non-binding, may be considered to be politically by choice but in any case see point 2
4. 2017 parliament choses to try and enact the 2016 referendum. Because the election delivered a hung parliament it chooses not to authorise acceptance of the deal, and votes to not allow leaving without a deal
5. "Will of the people" is what was delivered in 2017 at the election. That supercedes all previous votes which is why a defeated government can't refuse to go, pointing to their win at a prior election
Its very very simple. If you want MPs to make a different political choice over Brexit, then elect new ones. The current parliament is legally and constitutionally sovereign to refuse to implement the actions of a previous parliament. That is very explicitly the parliamentary sovereignty that Brexiteers claim they voted for.
So if they didn't vote for sovereignty. And they didn't vote to be better off (because "I'd rather eat grass") then that only leaves racism. They voted to leave to chuck anyone out they don't like. CF Priti "Hang 'Em" Patel's pronouncements on free movement the minute we leave0 -
It may be the end of democracy, but Lucy is still doing the ITV weather forecast...0
-
Meanwhile, not much sign of the wobbly Eurocrats caving in this tweet:
https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/11666946742513090560 -
I agree. Unfortunately now you've gone and blurted it out the Labour left will be onto us, and Jeremy Corbyn will no longer fall for our otherwise brilliant plan.Gabs2 said:It would be good if we could get a Blairite or a Lib Dem as alternative PM. Their added credibility as PM would be a big asset in defeating the Corbynites.
A Tory is also bad, for tribal backbench Labour reasons.
The answer to the riddle is Sylvia Hermon, who is 200/1 with Shadsy.0 -
Phillip Lee on WATO, not chuffed by this. Getting warm words from Chakrabarti too.0
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Where does it say that he can't?nichomar said:
He cantGabs2 said:
With a VONC, Boris will call a new election and remain as Prime Minister. So no extension and No Deal.Byronic said:Wild prediction: the VONC will succeed, Boris will fall, there will be an A50 extension under a caretaker government, probably Corbyn. At the ensuing GE Boris will win, but he will be promising... what?
There my clairvoyant skills expire.0 -
The idea that the Tory government didn't listen to retired people across Shire England is a keeper!SouthamObserver said:
Which, of course, is why the older you were the more likely you were to vote for Brexit, regardless of where in the UK you lived or your financial circumstances.isam said:
No it is futile and I’d say a hinderance to happiness.TOPPING said:
Rubbish, man - it's the stuff of life. Plus we need someone on here who tells us the real reason why the UK voted for Brexit (foreigners) rather than the claptrap spouted by the petit bourgeoisie (sovereignty).isam said:
How bored must I be?TOPPING said:
Good to see you posting again, Sam. And agree wholeheartedly. The fact that our society could be as heartless as to leave behind Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of our national disgraces.isam said:Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
The reason wasn’t foreigners, it was unsolicited changes to the living conditions and the labour market of the poorest in the UK imposed by our government plus their refusal to listen/vitriolic response to feedback0
