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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets respond to Johnson’s Charles the First Mov
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets respond to Johnson’s Charles the First Move
My view is that this is Downing Street’s response to the agreement yesterday between all the opposition parties on the best way of stopping no deal. Number 10 can see the challenges ahead so why not use what power it has to curtail parliamentary time?
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Whilst the proposal by the government is obviously (purposefully) provocative, it is definitely within their power and the norm when a Queen's speech happens. That a Queen's speech is needed now is debatable, but not unjustifiable.
What I find interesting is that there is still a week of business in the first bit of September where Parliament could easily do another Letwin / Cooper, and pass emergency legislation demanding that "if there is no deal agree by X date, the PM must ask the EU for an extension, and if offered one, accept it".
There is also enough time after the Oct 14th to enforce said emergency legislation or VONC the government if it looks like Johnson will refuse to do it. So really it is some can kicking to reduce parliamentary accountability (bad) but not the coup it looks like.
I don't disagree with Chorley too much, other than to suggest the Remain side have fewer levers of power to enact their wishes, and rather than dithering losing to ACTION, it is those without the power of government trying to find a route to power and Johnson just having those levers easily at his disposal.
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1166625995736178689
The corollary doesn't need articulating.
Having said that, would just love Her Majesty to tell Rees-Mogg to do one and scuttle back to London.
Another sesh of parliament taking over business of the house, passage of a "you must extend A50 if no deal is likely" bill, and Johnson gets his Him vs Parliament election in November.
A lot of confected outrage from Remainers here. Their main complaint seems to be that Boris is subverting British democracy, and thereby preventing Remainers from subverting British democracy.
He has taken an enormous gamble staking everything on challenging the HOC.
Sir Anthony Seldon has just said on Sky that Boris either wins this and becomes another Thatcher/Churchill or loses everything
It has astounded me and must apologise to HYUFD who maintained he would do this and I rejected his confidence. HYUFD was correct
But by 2024 a party committee will win a majority on a platform to take us back in the EU without a referendum.
Pro EU people will ultimately end up thanking Boris Johnson for his actions.
We all know Leave would not have won the referendum if they had promised No Deal.
And don't you DARE have the temerity to scream about it being a "democratic outrage".
Lots of over-excited posting might seem like a good idea. But it never is.
today’s announced prorogation that will result in Parliament losing only 4 sitting days.
If so, some more balanced perspective is required rather than knee jerk sound bites.
If there’s a VONC and a GE after Brexit he will likely win, unless it’s a swiftly disastrous hard Brexit
If there’s a VONC and a GE before Brexit he will very probably win.
If Corbyn becomes a caretaker PM just to prevent Brexit Boris will absolutely sweep the following GE.
If a caretaker PM like Clarke scuppers Brexit, Boris again gets an outraged landslide
But it is fiendishly complicated. And therefore, still, a huge gamble.
I expect Boris will get a boost and the lib dems
For those who are not completely signed up to trashing the constitution in the name of leaving the EU, it will have a lot of purchase.
Anyone proposing to rejoin gets asked this on every doorstep: "So, which hopsitals are you going to close to pay for our massive annual fees?"
What has Hammond got to lose ? He has been CoE for a few years. He could easily do a VoNC. So could Clarke and after today one or two more ditherers.
Real Clear poll averages
Biden 27.3
Sanders 19.2
Warren 16.0
Harris 7.2
Not much sign of it here either :
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
-The regional PB Leavers now have direct control over their territories. Project Fear will keep the Remainers in line. Fear of this battle station.
One tries to avoid hysteria, and with the Bercows and Grieves against it makes siding with arseholes like them who have been so praised for indulging in arcane procedure difficult to swallow - they love to use arcane procedures when it helps them - but when the only explanation for why this is happening is because the government lacks support in the house and fears something else would have support, that just does not seem sufficient justification.
We would lose a vote is not grounds to throw a temper tantrum like this.
On the other hand, I can easily see us joining EFTA and the Single Market without a referendum, possibly very soon, if Brexit is a disaster.
I always thought you saw the Brexit argument in nuance and shades of grey - seems that everything is getting more polarised sadly.
"Tourette's is a lifetime condition, not one from which a sufferer can "recover"...."
It’s a clever, intriguing gamble by Boris and Dom, but also very risky.
*noises off of foxes being shot....*
I have no love for the DUP
Up to now, all the Remainer outrage had been directed at the assumed scenario that Johnson would not bring parliament back until after 31st October. He is not doing that, as Johnson has made it clear that parliament will be in place to have to the opportunity to react to whatever comes out of the European Council on 17th/18th October and to ratify (or reject) any offer made.
Apart from many of the comments here, what is totally over the top in the context is the Leader of the Opposition's reaction, that is, Bercow's.
To take us out, without a deal, after suspending the Commons to prevent MPs from stopping him from doing so - this is the stuff of tinpot dictatorships and I can never be reconciled to it.
But this is terrible and reminds me of an abusive relationship with the offender screaming at their battered spouse, "look what you made me do". The offender is always wrong in that scenario and so is Boris.
Being in Greece, as I am, I can give one answer. Everyone here now speaks English (and I’m not in a touristy town). What’s more when foreigners and Greeks collide, they resort to English (even when there are no native English speakers present). The Chinese speak English to the Germans who speak English to the Spaniards, Brazilians, and Epirots.
All the signs are bilingual - English and Greek. All the menus, road signs, etc
When your language is so hegemonic it is difficult not to feel that your island, which gave birth to this language and culture, is exceptional.
English exceptionalism will endure. Whether that is good or bad who knows. Probably bad. But it is a thing. The cricket only makes it worse....