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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets respond to Johnson’s Charles the First Mov

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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sturgeon calling Boris frit and rightly so.

    I think Boris is far from frit.

    He has taken an enormous gamble staking everything on challenging the HOC.

    Sir Anthony Seldon has just said on Sky that Boris either wins this and becomes another Thatcher/Churchill or loses everything

    It has astounded me and must apologise to HYUFD who maintained he would do this and I rejected his confidence. HYUFD was correct
    Indeed, he called it right. I thought Boris would be more sensible than a straight prorogation - and he seems to have come up with a workable plan: after all, it's not unreasonable for a new government to get to have a Queen's Speech (and IIRC the current session has been exceptionally long). But it's definitely a bold move.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited August 2019
    kle4 said:

    Reminds me of when it seemed May was practically trying to get her own MPs to no confidence her. One could almost believe it is a conspiracy and Boris really wants to lose a no confidence vote so he can have his election and it not be his fault, but hes worried Tory MPs are too gutless.

    Yep. Seems like the firing gun for a general election to me. But it is fun watching the confected outrage of Remainers. :D
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Byronic said:

    I think Boris wins from most outcomes here (in the short term)

    If there’s a VONC and a GE after Brexit he will likely win, unless it’s a swiftly disastrous hard Brexit
    If there’s a VONC and a GE before Brexit he will very probably win.
    If Corbyn becomes a caretaker PM just to prevent Brexit Boris will absolutely sweep the following GE.
    If a caretaker PM like Clarke scuppers Brexit, Boris again gets an outraged landslide

    But it is fiendishly complicated. And therefore, still, a huge gamble.

    I much prefer that we Brexit after Johnson wins a GE after MPs prevent him from proroguing and taking us out without a deal on October 31st. At least that way the British people would have assented directly to the policy being implemented.

    To take us out, without a deal, after suspending the Commons to prevent MPs from stopping him from doing so - this is the stuff of tinpot dictatorships and I can never be reconciled to it.
    But is that fact or fiction?

    Parliament is still sitting after the next EU council meeting - and any changes or chance of changes to the WA will not be confirmed in advance of that meeting.

    Recess is due to end on 9th October, so most of the proroguing is during a scheduled recess of parliament.

    If the proroguing was set for time parliament was due to be in session, I would agree with you. This can be argued both ways, but neither deserve the high horse treatment.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    Scott_P said:
    Actually, I could easily imagine Disraeli doing so.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Pulpstar said:

    Paging @Foxy, Where's the "Warren steamroller" ?

    Real Clear poll averages

    Biden 27.3
    Sanders 19.2
    Warren 16.0
    Harris 7.2

    Not much sign of it here either :

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Bear in mind that polling has also shown that when Biden is put up against any of Sanders, Warren or Harris in a two person primary head to head, he loses. The question is, how quickly will candidates drop out of the race so that it becomes a clear contest between Biden and one other? If four candidates stay in the race until close to the end, then it favours Biden, but such a scenario would be unusual.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    MarqueeMark said: We will never go back in. Why? The NHS. It top trumps everything.
    Anyone proposing to rejoin gets asked this on every doorstep: "So, which hopsitals are you going to close to pay for our massive annual fees?"

    Would there still be massive fees? This Conservative government is hell-bent on wrecking the economy, so we will undoubtedly be considerably poorer - as we are already. The EU will probably be subsidising us.

    In any case, the NHS will by then have been handed over to the Americans, so it will be totally unaffordable and completely destroyed.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nope. He has done himself a favour by bringing things to a head instead of a drift into endless prevarication.

    But this is terrible and reminds me of an abusive relationship with the offender screaming at their battered spouse, "look what you made me do". The offender is always wrong in that scenario and so is Boris.
    He hasn't though - there are clear ways around things that keep things going while completely frustrating him. For instance Cooper Letwin control next weeks agenda and a VoNC is announced on September 11th to be held on October 14th which would takes precedence over the Queen's speech.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Byronic said:

    We won’t ever go back in because, after this trauma, the EU would demand - as the price for our re-entry - some sign of total and permanent commitment. It is obvious what that would be: sign up to Schenghen, adopt the euro. That will never fly in the UK. We’re out for good.

    What if there is no UK?
  • Is that really her name, or something made up for a comedy programme?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    I think we'll all have a good chuckle if it doesn't beat the last one. I believe the appointment of Boris has somewhat taken the wind out the sails of the 'remain at all costs' coalition. As has been said he's far more ruthless than May and seems to be taking the fight to the opposition. I have to say I didn't really want Boris PM but I cannot fault him so far.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    And for the record 5.5m for the petition
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    This is likely to give Boris a huge polling boost...along with the LD's.

    The corollary doesn't need articulating.

    Well the view in my office is 100% in favour of what Boris has done. As one chap put it MPs have had three years to sort this out and all they have done is try to stop Brexit. Whether the view of my office will be reflected nationwide I have no idea.
    "All they have done is try to stop Brexit" is pure Daily Mail propaganda. I despair.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Is that really her name, or something made up for a comedy programme?
    When your name is Alastair Meeks, you long ago have stopped looking for the humour in other people's quirky names.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    The posters who say they have spoken in their office are believing crap.
    Most people in an office want to keep the peace, as they have to work with these people .Therefore they in many instance just go along with the loud mouth who brings their views on politics up.
    They nod along , then think what an arse.
    I know I did the same in an office environment.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited August 2019

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    It's nice to see the improvements the revoke petition resulted in are keeping everything working. Seems to be about 1000 signatures a minute at the moment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    I'd be happier if it gave wiggle room for people who want to leave just not this way.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nope. He has done himself a favour by bringing things to a head instead of a drift into endless prevarication.

    But this is terrible and reminds me of an abusive relationship with the offender screaming at their battered spouse, "look what you made me do". The offender is always wrong in that scenario and so is Boris.
    He hasn't though - there are clear ways around things that keep things going while completely frustrating him. For instance Cooper Letwin control next weeks agenda and a VoNC is announced on September 11th to be held on October 14th which would takes precedence over the Queen's speech.
    How does that prevent crashing out on the 31st?
  • Yorkcity said:

    The posters who say they have spoken in their office are believing crap.
    Most people in an office want to keep the peace, as they have to work with these people .Therefore they in many instance just go along with the loud mouth who brings their views on politics up.
    They nod along , then think what an arse.
    I know I did the same in an office environment.

    More sensible to await polling this weekend
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    So if we assume that this is 4D Chess (is there any other kind, the whole point of chess being to calculate what the board will look like at some point in the future) what are the knock on consequences?

    Let's assume for the moment that the proposed application for interim interdict doesn't succeed. Let's assume that Parliament convenes next week and a VONC is moved and passed. Do Labour support a motion for instant dissolution of Parliament or do we wait 14 days? Surely it has to be instant if we are to have an election before 31st October. Furthermore how does dissolution and the FTPA interact? How can you have a vote of confidence if Parliament isn't sitting? I think that it is at least implied that Parliament is sitting for those 14 days.

    How does that election date get fixed? Normally up to the PM but can Parliament seek to fix the date in October? I think that they may be able to insist on an earlier date but I am very unsure about the mechanics.

    What happens on 17th October? Does Boris go? Are there going to be any more attempts to get a revised deal for Parliament or is this just being abandoned after Boris's efforts over the last 2 weeks? If he gets a deal when does Parliament consider it if it is dissolved? Would the EU really want to give Boris a deal that might help him in the election?

    If we have an election in the last week in October and the new government asks for a further extension will the EU be able to respond in time? Will they come to a view on the 17th that in the event that the new government asks for such an extension they will grant it and how will that play?

    As a good film once said, "a strange game, the only way to win is not to play." And yet iacta alea est.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited August 2019

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    How can such a minor matter as ending one (exceptionally long) Parliamentary session to start a new one be so controversial?

    It's not like it hasn't happened hundreds of times before... ;)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
  • Dadge said:

    This is likely to give Boris a huge polling boost...along with the LD's.

    The corollary doesn't need articulating.

    Well the view in my office is 100% in favour of what Boris has done. As one chap put it MPs have had three years to sort this out and all they have done is try to stop Brexit. Whether the view of my office will be reflected nationwide I have no idea.
    "All they have done is try to stop Brexit" is pure Daily Mail propaganda. I despair.
    Why, what have they done to enable Brexit???
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,758
    PClipp said:

    MarqueeMark said: We will never go back in. Why? The NHS. It top trumps everything.
    Anyone proposing to rejoin gets asked this on every doorstep: "So, which hopsitals are you going to close to pay for our massive annual fees?"

    Would there still be massive fees? This Conservative government is hell-bent on wrecking the economy, so we will undoubtedly be considerably poorer - as we are already. The EU will probably be subsidising us.

    In any case, the NHS will by then have been handed over to the Americans, so it will be totally unaffordable and completely destroyed.

    Don't understand all this stuff about handing over NHS to the Americans. The NHS is a state-run organisation which enters contracts with private suppliers for some goods and some services. However clinical staff are, and will continue to be, directly employed. Does the NHS develop and manufacture all the drugs it uses? If US companies can more effectively compete to provide services what's the problem?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    DavidL said:

    So if we assume that this is 4D Chess (is there any other kind, the whole point of chess being to calculate what the board will look like at some point in the future)

    Wouldn't that make it 3D chess?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    DavidL said:

    So if we assume that this is 4D Chess (is there any other kind, the whole point of chess being to calculate what the board will look like at some point in the future)

    Where are you getting the 4th dimension from :) ? Chess is a well defined problem on a 2D plane ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Arlene Foster says it is the right thing to do. So DUP on side

    You seem to be suggesting that having those racists, homophobes and sectarians on side is a good thing.
    Better than letting Jezza’s racists, Marxists and sectarians get into government.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    So if we assume that this is 4D Chess (is there any other kind, the whole point of chess being to calculate what the board will look like at some point in the future)

    Where are you getting the 4th dimension from :) ? Chess is a well defined problem on a 2D plane ;)
    My pieces sat in 3 dimensions but I take the point that they moved in 2.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    philiph said:

    Byronic said:

    I think Boris wins from most outcomes here (in the short term)

    If there’s a VONC and a GE after Brexit he will likely win, unless it’s a swiftly disastrous hard Brexit
    If there’s a VONC and a GE before Brexit he will very probably win.
    If Corbyn becomes a caretaker PM just to prevent Brexit Boris will absolutely sweep the following GE.
    If a caretaker PM like Clarke scuppers Brexit, Boris again gets an outraged landslide

    But it is fiendishly complicated. And therefore, still, a huge gamble.

    I much prefer that we Brexit after Johnson wins a GE after MPs prevent him from proroguing and taking us out without a deal on October 31st. At least that way the British people would have assented directly to the policy being implemented.

    To take us out, without a deal, after suspending the Commons to prevent MPs from stopping him from doing so - this is the stuff of tinpot dictatorships and I can never be reconciled to it.
    But is that fact or fiction?

    Parliament is still sitting after the next EU council meeting - and any changes or chance of changes to the WA will not be confirmed in advance of that meeting.

    Recess is due to end on 9th October, so most of the proroguing is during a scheduled recess of parliament.

    If the proroguing was set for time parliament was due to be in session, I would agree with you. This can be argued both ways, but neither deserve the high horse treatment.
    There is a clear intention to prevent the Commons from expressing it's will to extend Article 50 ahead of the EU council meeting. It is the clearest demonstration of an anti-democratic impulse that we have seen in this country for many centuries.

    If Johnson is allowed to set this precedent now the damage it will do to our democracy will persist for many decades - at best.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Dadge said:

    This is likely to give Boris a huge polling boost...along with the LD's.

    The corollary doesn't need articulating.

    Well the view in my office is 100% in favour of what Boris has done. As one chap put it MPs have had three years to sort this out and all they have done is try to stop Brexit. Whether the view of my office will be reflected nationwide I have no idea.
    "All they have done is try to stop Brexit" is pure Daily Mail propaganda. I despair.
    Why, what have they done to enable Brexit???
    Voted to enact Article 50 under the assumption the government would propose a Brexit settlement that would bring the country together.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    eek said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    It's nice to see the improvements the revoke petition resulted in are keeping everything working. Seems to be about 1000 signatures a minute at the moment.
    The vast majority of the people who are signing it almost certainly have never studied our constitution or legal system. It just jumping on the outrage bus.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Dadge said:

    This is likely to give Boris a huge polling boost...along with the LD's.

    The corollary doesn't need articulating.

    Well the view in my office is 100% in favour of what Boris has done. As one chap put it MPs have had three years to sort this out and all they have done is try to stop Brexit. Whether the view of my office will be reflected nationwide I have no idea.
    "All they have done is try to stop Brexit" is pure Daily Mail propaganda. I despair.
    That people are gullible enough to think delaying Brexit is a tactic to agree a new deal says it all. Do folk really think the Lib Dems, SNP Grieve and most of the Labour party are willing to accept any Brexit under a Tory government? Of course not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    GIN1138 said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    How can sure a minor matter as ending one (exceptionally long) Parliamentary session to start a new one be so controversial?

    It's not like it hasn't happened hundreds of times before... ;)
    Indeed, but in all seriousness Context matters. It being long is not why hes doing it, playing it off as normal is wafer thin as a reason and he knows it. He wants his people v parliament election I guess.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    This is likely to give Boris a huge polling boost...along with the LD's.

    The corollary doesn't need articulating.

    Well the view in my office is 100% in favour of what Boris has done.
    In Internet culture, this gambit is traditionally known as "the lurkers support me in email".
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kle4 said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    I'd be happier if it gave wiggle room for people who want to leave just not this way.
    Yes, I like the way a simple “Revoke” is now one of the two options. These whingeing fuckwits complain about Boris “trashing democracy” with a constitutional sleight of hand, entirely legal, and at the same time they calmly talk of ignoring 17.4 million voters and utterly destroying all faith in our political system - forever.

    How can hardcore Remainers not see how they come across? Howling hypocrisy.
  • Is that really her name, or something made up for a comedy programme?
    When your name is Alastair Meeks, you long ago have stopped looking for the humour in other people's quirky names.
    Blessed are the Meeks, for they shall inherit the earth!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    I'd be happier if it gave wiggle room for people who want to leave just not this way.
    Yes, I like the way a simple “Revoke” is now one of the two options. These whingeing fuckwits complain about Boris “trashing democracy” with a constitutional sleight of hand, entirely legal, and at the same time they calmly talk of ignoring 17.4 million voters and utterly destroying all faith in our political system - forever.

    How can hardcore Remainers not see how they come across? Howling hypocrisy.
    You revoke to stop the clock whilst we work out, as a country, what the hell we want.

    There is no majority for anything. We must build one.
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    What if the EU unilaterally extends the deadline?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Dadge said:

    This is likely to give Boris a huge polling boost...along with the LD's.

    The corollary doesn't need articulating.

    Well the view in my office is 100% in favour of what Boris has done. As one chap put it MPs have had three years to sort this out and all they have done is try to stop Brexit. Whether the view of my office will be reflected nationwide I have no idea.
    "All they have done is try to stop Brexit" is pure Daily Mail propaganda. I despair.
    Why, what have they done to enable Brexit???
    Voted to enact Article 50 under the assumption the government would propose a Brexit settlement that would bring the country together.
    Let's be honest that very few of those opposing Brexit with a deal have done that. The logic of many of them is incompatible with anything but remaining. Hard to pit a number on those who would personally be willing to back a deal of some sort but not the one we got. Amazingly Corbyn is one of them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Nope. He has done himself a favour by bringing things to a head instead of a drift into endless prevarication.

    But this is terrible and reminds me of an abusive relationship with the offender screaming at their battered spouse, "look what you made me do". The offender is always wrong in that scenario and so is Boris.
    He hasn't though - there are clear ways around things that keep things going while completely frustrating him. For instance Cooper Letwin control next weeks agenda and a VoNC is announced on September 11th to be held on October 14th which would takes precedence over the Queen's speech.
    There may be countermoves available. But that doesn't make this right.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    edited August 2019
    DavidL said:

    So if we assume that this is 4D Chess (is there any other kind, the whole point of chess being to calculate what the board will look like at some point in the future) what are the knock on consequences?

    Let's assume for the moment that the proposed application for interim interdict doesn't succeed. Let's assume that Parliament convenes next week and a VONC is moved and passed. Do Labour support a motion for instant dissolution of Parliament or do we wait 14 days? Surely it has to be instant if we are to have an election before 31st October. Furthermore how does dissolution and the FTPA interact? How can you have a vote of confidence if Parliament isn't sitting? I think that it is at least implied that Parliament is sitting for those 14 days.

    How does that election date get fixed? Normally up to the PM but can Parliament seek to fix the date in October? I think that they may be able to insist on an earlier date but I am very unsure about the mechanics.

    What happens on 17th October? Does Boris go? Are there going to be any more attempts to get a revised deal for Parliament or is this just being abandoned after Boris's efforts over the last 2 weeks? If he gets a deal when does Parliament consider it if it is dissolved? Would the EU really want to give Boris a deal that might help him in the election?

    If we have an election in the last week in October and the new government asks for a further extension will the EU be able to respond in time? Will they come to a view on the 17th that in the event that the new government asks for such an extension they will grant it and how will that play?

    As a good film once said, "a strange game, the only way to win is not to play." And yet iacta alea est.

    "The die is cast". Very good. Do or die it is!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    I'd be happier if it gave wiggle room for people who want to leave just not this way.
    Yes, I like the way a simple “Revoke” is now one of the two options. These whingeing fuckwits complain about Boris “trashing democracy” with a constitutional sleight of hand, entirely legal, and at the same time they calmly talk of ignoring 17.4 million voters and utterly destroying all faith in our political system - forever.

    How can hardcore Remainers not see how they come across? Howling hypocrisy.
    You revoke to stop the clock whilst we work out, as a country, what the hell we want.

    There is no majority for anything. We must build one.
    Them delay. Revoking us picking one of the two extreme options whilst pretending it's about keeping options open. I'd rather revoke than no deal but its misleading to cast revoke as some holding position option.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    Dadge said:

    This is likely to give Boris a huge polling boost...along with the LD's.

    The corollary doesn't need articulating.

    Well the view in my office is 100% in favour of what Boris has done. As one chap put it MPs have had three years to sort this out and all they have done is try to stop Brexit. Whether the view of my office will be reflected nationwide I have no idea.
    "All they have done is try to stop Brexit" is pure Daily Mail propaganda. I despair.
    Why, what have they done to enable Brexit???
    Oh joy, another disingenuous Brexiter.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    It seems to me that the most important question for the next two weeks is “what does Corbyn want”?

    I’m sure he wants lots of airtime saying it’s a constitutional outrage and Boris is a dictator; but does he want to trigger a vote of no confidence now?

    If he doesn’t, then presumably his next chance is 25 October, by which time it might look like something could happen at the EU Council. No matter how outraged, would enough Tory MPs want to topple the Gvt then, given how unlikely it seems that a successful NCM leads to anything other than a post-Brexit election.

    I think what the Gvt is doing is outrageous, but it does look like it’s in with a shout of succeeding.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    DavidL said:

    Let's assume for the moment that the proposed application for interim interdict doesn't succeed. Let's assume that Parliament convenes next week and a VONC is moved and passed. Do Labour support a motion for instant dissolution of Parliament or do we wait 14 days? Surely it has to be instant if we are to have an election before 31st October. Furthermore how does dissolution and the FTPA interact? How can you have a vote of confidence if Parliament isn't sitting? I think that it is at least implied that Parliament is sitting for those 14 days.

    If parliament has taken control of the agenda, is it possible for them to first pass a change to the FTPA then a VONC?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    spire2 said:

    What if the EU unilaterally extends the deadline?

    I don't think that they can do that. They can only accede to our request if we make it (or refuse it of course).
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    GIN1138 said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    How can such a minor matter as ending one (exceptionally long) Parliamentary session to start a new one be so controversial?

    It's not like it hasn't happened hundreds of times before... ;)
    I don't doubt that Boris's intentions are utterly benign and he'll be scratching his head now bewildered at all the fuss this is causing.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    kle4 said:

    Dadge said:

    This is likely to give Boris a huge polling boost...along with the LD's.

    The corollary doesn't need articulating.

    Well the view in my office is 100% in favour of what Boris has done. As one chap put it MPs have had three years to sort this out and all they have done is try to stop Brexit. Whether the view of my office will be reflected nationwide I have no idea.
    "All they have done is try to stop Brexit" is pure Daily Mail propaganda. I despair.
    Why, what have they done to enable Brexit???
    Voted to enact Article 50 under the assumption the government would propose a Brexit settlement that would bring the country together.
    Let's be honest that very few of those opposing Brexit with a deal have done that. The logic of many of them is incompatible with anything but remaining. Hard to pit a number on those who would personally be willing to back a deal of some sort but not the one we got. Amazingly Corbyn is one of them.
    Yes, and I blame May for that. She threw away any semblance of goodwill until it was too late.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    Labour MP Neil Coyle on Johnson proroguing parliament: "He's too scared to call an election, he's too scared to support the people having another vote, he's scared to have negotiations with the EU and he's even too scared to allow MPs to debate his plans"

    I don't mean to be unkind to him but Neil Coyle stood as the Labour candidate in our school mock election in 1997. I think he came last.
    And yet he is an MP deciding matters of state and here you are.
    Emphasises that being an MP isn't what you know but who you know, perhaps. Mind you, your assessment can be easily applied to many of the great minds here whose days are spent explaining how clever they are.
  • DavidL said:

    So if we assume that this is 4D Chess (is there any other kind, the whole point of chess being to calculate what the board will look like at some point in the future)

    Wouldn't that make it 3D chess?
    Star Trek Discovery :)
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    GIN1138 said:
    She clearly doesn't understand our constitution.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    I'd be happier if it gave wiggle room for people who want to leave just not this way.
    Yes, I like the way a simple “Revoke” is now one of the two options. These whingeing fuckwits complain about Boris “trashing democracy” with a constitutional sleight of hand, entirely legal, and at the same time they calmly talk of ignoring 17.4 million voters and utterly destroying all faith in our political system - forever.

    How can hardcore Remainers not see how they come across? Howling hypocrisy.
    You revoke to stop the clock whilst we work out, as a country, what the hell we want.

    There is no majority for anything. We must build one.
    Them delay. Revoking us picking one of the two extreme options whilst pretending it's about keeping options open. I'd rather revoke than no deal but its misleading to cast revoke as some holding position option.
    I agree, but we don't even know if delaying is possible, since it requires the agreement of the EU. Or, like last time, it might be a delay on a silly timescale. The "or" in the petition just covers all bases
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Scottish Secretary Alister Jack has cancelled photocall and a prearranged interview with STVNEWS
    Tories running scared in Scotland, another big jessie placeman
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    I'd be happier if it gave wiggle room for people who want to leave just not this way.
    Yes, I like the way a simple “Revoke” is now one of the two options. These whingeing fuckwits complain about Boris “trashing democracy” with a constitutional sleight of hand, entirely legal, and at the same time they calmly talk of ignoring 17.4 million voters and utterly destroying all faith in our political system - forever.

    How can hardcore Remainers not see how they come across? Howling hypocrisy.
    You revoke to stop the clock whilst we work out, as a country, what the hell we want.

    There is no majority for anything. We must build one.
    Them delay. Revoking us picking one of the two extreme options whilst pretending it's about keeping options open. I'd rather revoke than no deal but its misleading to cast revoke as some holding position option.
    I’m happy with delay too, but then we are at the whim of the EU. Revoke is the only thing we have in our gift unilaterally.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    spire2 said:

    What if the EU unilaterally extends the deadline?

    They can't. It requires the agreement of the UK too.
  • Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    I'd be happier if it gave wiggle room for people who want to leave just not this way.
    Yes, I like the way a simple “Revoke” is now one of the two options. These whingeing fuckwits complain about Boris “trashing democracy” with a constitutional sleight of hand, entirely legal, and at the same time they calmly talk of ignoring 17.4 million voters and utterly destroying all faith in our political system - forever.

    How can hardcore Remainers not see how they come across? Howling hypocrisy.
    Crashing out with No Deal wasn't an option on the 2016 ballot.
  • Is that really her name, or something made up for a comedy programme?
    When your name is Alastair Meeks, you long ago have stopped looking for the humour in other people's quirky names.
    Blessed are the Meeks, for they shall inherit the earth!
    At University I had two Economics Professors, one named Meeks and the other Savage.

    And yes, you've guessed it - Prof Savage was kind of sweet natured whilst Prof Meeks....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    GIN1138 said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    How can such a minor matter as ending one (exceptionally long) Parliamentary session to start a new one be so controversial?

    It's not like it hasn't happened hundreds of times before... ;)
    I don't doubt that Boris's intentions are utterly benign and he'll be scratching his head now bewildered at all the fuss this is causing.
    :D
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    spire2 said:

    What if the EU unilaterally extends the deadline?

    It can't do that, not legally at least.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    philiph said:

    Byronic said:

    I think Boris wins from most outcomes here (in the short term)

    If there’s a VONC and a GE after Brexit he will likely win, unless it’s a swiftly disastrous hard Brexit
    If there’s a VONC and a GE before Brexit he will very probably win.
    If Corbyn becomes a caretaker PM just to prevent Brexit Boris will absolutely sweep the following GE.
    If a caretaker PM like Clarke scuppers Brexit, Boris again gets an outraged landslide

    But it is fiendishly complicated. And therefore, still, a huge gamble.

    I much prefer that we Brexit after Johnson wins a GE after MPs prevent him from proroguing and taking us out without a deal on October 31st. At least that way the British people would have assented directly to the policy being implemented.

    To take us out, without a deal, after suspending the Commons to prevent MPs from stopping him from doing so - this is the stuff of tinpot dictatorships and I can never be reconciled to it.
    But is that fact or fiction?

    Parliament is still sitting after the next EU council meeting - and any changes or chance of changes to the WA will not be confirmed in advance of that meeting.

    Recess is due to end on 9th October, so most of the proroguing is during a scheduled recess of parliament.

    If the proroguing was set for time parliament was due to be in session, I would agree with you. This can be argued both ways, but neither deserve the high horse treatment.
    There is a clear intention to prevent the Commons from expressing it's will to extend Article 50 ahead of the EU council meeting. It is the clearest demonstration of an anti-democratic impulse that we have seen in this country for many centuries.

    If Johnson is allowed to set this precedent now the damage it will do to our democracy will persist for many decades - at best.
    Why would you want to talk about extending before the EU Council meeting?

    See what is on offer, then react to that current situation. You can revoke, extend, accept deal or no deal at that point.

    It is slightly odd to react before the facts are known.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    GIN1138 said:
    Let me guess it's time for another Indy ref :o
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    PClipp said:

    MarqueeMark said: We will never go back in. Why? The NHS. It top trumps everything.
    Anyone proposing to rejoin gets asked this on every doorstep: "So, which hopsitals are you going to close to pay for our massive annual fees?"

    Would there still be massive fees? This Conservative government is hell-bent on wrecking the economy, so we will undoubtedly be considerably poorer - as we are already. The EU will probably be subsidising us.

    In any case, the NHS will by then have been handed over to the Americans, so it will be totally unaffordable and completely destroyed.

    Don't understand all this stuff about handing over NHS to the Americans. The NHS is a state-run organisation which enters contracts with private suppliers for some goods and some services. However clinical staff are, and will continue to be, directly employed. Does the NHS develop and manufacture all the drugs it uses? If US companies can more effectively compete to provide services what's the problem?
    As if the US is able to provide cheap health services!
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    The posters who say they have spoken in their office are believing crap.
    Most people in an office want to keep the peace, as they have to work with these people .Therefore they in many instance just go along with the loud mouth who brings their views on politics up.
    They nod along , then think what an arse.
    I know I did the same in an office environment.

    More sensible to await polling this weekend
    I agree,
    As you I think this will boost the Conservative share.
    As Johnson has had sole wall to wall, coverage, this past few weeks.
    Which should change when parliament returns.
  • spire2 said:

    What if the EU unilaterally extends the deadline?

    It can't do that, not legally at least.
    True but even if it did we could pretend otherwise and impose on ourselves all the vicissitudes of a hard Brexit anyway.

    Very difficult to stop a Country from self-harming.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477

    DavidL said:

    Let's assume for the moment that the proposed application for interim interdict doesn't succeed. Let's assume that Parliament convenes next week and a VONC is moved and passed. Do Labour support a motion for instant dissolution of Parliament or do we wait 14 days? Surely it has to be instant if we are to have an election before 31st October. Furthermore how does dissolution and the FTPA interact? How can you have a vote of confidence if Parliament isn't sitting? I think that it is at least implied that Parliament is sitting for those 14 days.

    If parliament has taken control of the agenda, is it possible for them to first pass a change to the FTPA then a VONC?
    I suspect one consequence of this move is that there are now so few sitting days that taking control of agenda is one thing, but actually passing legislation a determined Gvt wants to use every trick in the book to stop is another.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    DavidL said:

    Let's assume for the moment that the proposed application for interim interdict doesn't succeed. Let's assume that Parliament convenes next week and a VONC is moved and passed. Do Labour support a motion for instant dissolution of Parliament or do we wait 14 days? Surely it has to be instant if we are to have an election before 31st October. Furthermore how does dissolution and the FTPA interact? How can you have a vote of confidence if Parliament isn't sitting? I think that it is at least implied that Parliament is sitting for those 14 days.

    If parliament has taken control of the agenda, is it possible for them to first pass a change to the FTPA then a VONC?
    In theory but that would have to get through the Lords as well as the FTPA is full legislation. It is because the legislation only required approval from the Commons for a deal that the Lords hasn't really got to play yet.

    I think it is more likely that a GNU would again be promoted in which the Commons would pass a confidence resolution but as we saw in last week's discussions that is fraught with difficulties, not least Mr Corbyn.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    eek said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    It's nice to see the improvements the revoke petition resulted in are keeping everything working. Seems to be about 1000 signatures a minute at the moment.
    The vast majority of the people who are signing it almost certainly have never studied our constitution or legal system. It just jumping on the outrage bus.
    And for those of us who have? It's not normal to prorogue Parliament mid-session and given that there is legislation still to be signed off we are definitely mid-session.

    Separately a lot of things that could be ruled out as having already been attempted in this Parliamentary session can be reintroduced in October if Parliament does start a new session.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Byronic said:

    I think Boris wins from most outcomes here (in the short term)

    If there’s a VONC and a GE after Brexit he will likely win, unless it’s a swiftly disastrous hard Brexit
    If there’s a VONC and a GE before Brexit he will very probably win.
    If Corbyn becomes a caretaker PM just to prevent Brexit Boris will absolutely sweep the following GE.
    If a caretaker PM like Clarke scuppers Brexit, Boris again gets an outraged landslide

    But it is fiendishly complicated. And therefore, still, a huge gamble.

    I much prefer that we Brexit after Johnson wins a GE after MPs prevent him from proroguing and taking us out without a deal on October 31st. At least that way the British people would have assented directly to the policy being implemented.

    To take us out, without a deal, after suspending the Commons to prevent MPs from stopping him from doing so - this is the stuff of tinpot dictatorships and I can never be reconciled to it.
    But is that fact or fiction?

    Parliament is still sitting after the next EU council meeting - and any changes or chance of changes to the WA will not be confirmed in advance of that meeting.

    Recess is due to end on 9th October, so most of the proroguing is during a scheduled recess of parliament.

    If the proroguing was set for time parliament was due to be in session, I would agree with you. This can be argued both ways, but neither deserve the high horse treatment.
    There is a clear intention to prevent the Commons from expressing it's will to extend Article 50 ahead of the EU council meeting. It is the clearest demonstration of an anti-democratic impulse that we have seen in this country for many centuries.

    If Johnson is allowed to set this precedent now the damage it will do to our democracy will persist for many decades - at best.
    Why would you want to talk about extending before the EU Council meeting?

    See what is on offer, then react to that current situation. You can revoke, extend, accept deal or no deal at that point.

    It is slightly odd to react before the facts are known.
    I believe the thinking is that the request for an extension would be best made at the EU council meeting, when the EU council would be able to discuss it.

    In any case, this is the sort of argument that is best had in the Commons, between MPs, and if MPs were to accept your argument they could vote accordingly. It is not for the PM to decide for them, to prevent them from disagreeing, and to suspend Parliament knowing that they would disagree.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited August 2019

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    Lower than 17.4m you say????


  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Scott_P said:
    Possibly stupid question - but why is this happening in Edinburgh and the Scottish courts, and not London?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Is that really her name, or something made up for a comedy programme?
    When your name is Alastair Meeks, you long ago have stopped looking for the humour in other people's quirky names.
    Blessed are the Meeks, for they shall inherit the earth!
    I’m still bloody waiting.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_P said:
    Yeah, going through the courts will work...

    These people are idiots and their tactics play into the PM's hands
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Possibly stupid question - but why is this happening in Edinburgh and the Scottish courts, and not London?
    Why shouldn’t it be happening in the Scottish courts?
  • Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Possibly stupid question - but why is this happening in Edinburgh and the Scottish courts, and not London?
    Because they have more sense up there than down here?
  • Bercow has already showed his hand - prorogation an outrage. So if govt calls it and Bercow announces parliament will ignore it what then? Queen surely can't be seen no longer to have control of parliament, so would the Palace tell Johnson he can't have his prorogation?

    Great fun, a vat of Pineapple Pizza flavour popcorn is required
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    isam said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    Lower than 17.4m
    Boris has made 17.4M figure irrelevant as a significant proportion of Leavers (it only needs to be 4%) will not accept no deal.

    There is no mandate for No Deal
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Scott_P said:
    I was convinced Boris was wrong but......

    No, he's still wrong. This is just an aberration.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    How can such a minor matter as ending one (exceptionally long) Parliamentary session to start a new one be so controversial?

    It's not like it hasn't happened hundreds of times before... ;)
    I don't doubt that Boris's intentions are utterly benign and he'll be scratching his head now bewildered at all the fuss this is causing.
    "If we left the EU, we would end this sterile debate, and we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by “Bwussels”, but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure."
    Boris in The Telegraph, 12 May 2013.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    edited August 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Actually I had lost track. Its Friday for Aberdeenshire. I will be our Bunnco for this.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Possibly stupid question - but why is this happening in Edinburgh and the Scottish courts, and not London?
    Why shouldn’t it be happening in the Scottish courts?
    Because the Queen and so the Privy council are currently in Scotland..
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Verhofstadt of all people should understand that a handbrake turn is indeed taking control.
  • isam said:

    Should we have a sweepstake on what figure this petition ends at?

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

    It's going to be well into at least seven figures, surely.

    Lower than 17.4m you say????


    Crashing out with No Deal was not an option on the 2016 ballot!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    Damn, I am going to be in Aberdeenshire. I would have gone to this.
    *scraps the idea of doing a thread header about this*
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    Bercow has already showed his hand - prorogation an outrage. So if govt calls it and Bercow announces parliament will ignore it what then? Queen surely can't be seen no longer to have control of parliament, so would the Palace tell Johnson he can't have his prorogation?

    Great fun, a vat of Pineapple Pizza flavour popcorn is required

    Bercow has overplayed his hand. 4 days is not an outrage. Far from it.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Possibly stupid question - but why is this happening in Edinburgh and the Scottish courts, and not London?
    Why shouldn’t it be happening in the Scottish courts?
    I’m a unionist. I am happy for an Edinburgh court to decide. I just don’t know why. I presume there is some practical reason. Scots plaintiffs?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    Possibly stupid question - but why is this happening in Edinburgh and the Scottish courts, and not London?
    Why shouldn’t it be happening in the Scottish courts?
    Because the Queen and so the Privy council are currently in Scotland..

    Ah, ta.
  • TGOHF said:
    Don't pull our plonkers, Dan. You know what this is about as well as we do.
This discussion has been closed.