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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets respond to Johnson’s Charles the First Mov

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    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Cicero said:

    Across all media the response to the Charles the First move has been simply furious.

    BoJo has rolled the dice but it is NOT looking good. He will have to back off.

    Bercow has made the biggest mistake. Exploding with anger at the “constitutional outrage”??? He’s finished after all this. His theoretical impartiality is gone forever.

    He should have expressed measured concern with a hint of concealed menace.
    He has no impartiality - he is Speaker of the House of Commons. Constitutionally he represents the Commons in its relations with the Crown, so he absolutely is partial, biased towards representing the will, opinions and rights of parliament.

    Again, what happens when the executive requests Her Majesty prorogues parliament and parliament refuses and continues to sit? Because if I read this correctly that is the stand-off to come
    But Bercow is defending the rights and opinions of Parliament against THE PEOPLE, and their vote in 2016. That is why his position is so wrong, and so unsustainable
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    A random thought - the Royals ought to be shit scared of the NHS top trump card: let's take all the money we give to randy Andy and Di-hater Charles and give it to the NHS.

    So that's the destruction of Union and the monarchy baked in by lack of foresight on the part of David Cameron. Well done him.

    Rubbish, as a President and his entourage would take most of the money now spent on the royal family while losing the tax revenue from the tourists.

    With only 46% of Scots backing independence in the latest Ashcroft poll that is not clear either
    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    No Government control of most of the economy is socialism, not a hereditary constitutional monarch as Head of State

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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,912
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    So if we assume that this is 4D Chess (is there any other kind, the whole point of chess being to calculate what the board will look like at some point in the future)

    Where are you getting the 4th dimension from :) ? Chess is a well defined problem on a 2D plane ;)
    My pieces sat in 3 dimensions but I take the point that they moved in 2.
    They move in three[1]: the horsey has to jump over the prawns. Obvs. :)

    [1] OK, as it involves motion thru time, also four. We happy now?

    Play chess in an accelerating train and the physicists will model it using nine dimensions.
  • Options

    Oh god are we now going to get the borefest of a signature count update every 15mins ala the clarkson one and the last anti-brexit one.

    142,876 :)
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    DavidL said:

    Where the government is very vulnerable on any legal challenge is the why question. Why is this prorogation unusually long? The only answer is one that reflects its own lack of control of Parliament. Should the courts assist the executive in avoiding Parliamentary scrutiny? It’s very hard to see why that should be a permissible reason for proroguing.

    It's quite an arcane subject and I don't pretend to have studied it in detail but the traditional view used to be that the procedures of the Commons were matters for the Commons and no one else. I will no doubt learn tomorrow but I am struggling to see what the "wrong" that is being sought to be prevented is, at least in law.

    My guess is that the Court will say, well if Parliament wants to prevent this they can do so next week. But I may be wrong. The courts have been more ready to intervene in recent times as in the Miller case (although that was about changes to our domestic law, not Parliamentary procedure).
    How long would a prorogation have to be before the Courts would hold it to be unreasonable? Six months?
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    Imagine you're the barrister in front of an eminent judge with limited patience. Your opposite number is alleging that you're doing this to frustrate democracy. The judge peers over his varifocals and says:

    And says...

    'Get on with implementing the referendum result.'


    The lack of self-awareness of remainers is frankly astounding.

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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,008
    Quick question. What does "prorogation" actually mean in this context? Specifically, will Parliament still be *sitting* next week?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,402
    edited August 2019

    kle4 said:

    Where the government is very vulnerable on any legal challenge is the why question. Why is this prorogation unusually long? The only answer is one that reflects its own lack of control of Parliament. Should the courts assist the executive in avoiding Parliamentary scrutiny? It’s very hard to see why that should be a permissible reason for proroguing.

    Are they obliged under law to provide a reason? Genuine question.
    Imagine you're the barrister in front of an eminent judge with limited patience. Your opposite number is alleging that you're doing this to frustrate democracy. The judge peers over his varifocals and says:

    "So, Mr 4, why is your client taking such an unusually long period of time for prorogation at such a hectic period in British politics against a tight deadline?"

    The response "I'm not at liberty to say" is not really going to cut it.
    That would indeed be unwise. But an answer such as, "well after such a very long session and a substantial change of cabinet we want a full Queens Speech with a a panoply of bills covering a wide range of subjects and this takes time to organise" is quite difficult to disprove.

    Edit, and Lord Doherty doesn't wear varifocals. You'd be right about the limited patience though.
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    kle4 said:


    I doubt it. They knew no deal was a risk if they said no but held out. As of now both no deal and remain are possible just as they wanted, so it has gone as expected. If they were willing to deal to avoid no deal we'd not be hear now.

    It is disappointing (to say the least) that remainer mp's were willing to recklessly go to the brink to avoid implementing the democratic will of 17m+ people.

    Remainers have played games for the last 3 years and now it's coming home to roost.

    They will own the aftermath.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,912
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Cicero said:

    Across all media the response to the Charles the First move has been simply furious.

    BoJo has rolled the dice but it is NOT looking good. He will have to back off.

    Bercow has made the biggest mistake. Exploding with anger at the “constitutional outrage”??? He’s finished after all this. His theoretical impartiality is gone forever.

    He should have expressed measured concern with a hint of concealed menace.
    He has no impartiality - he is Speaker of the House of Commons. Constitutionally he represents the Commons in its relations with the Crown, so he absolutely is partial, biased towards representing the will, opinions and rights of parliament.

    Again, what happens when the executive requests Her Majesty prorogues parliament and parliament refuses and continues to sit? Because if I read this correctly that is the stand-off to come
    But Bercow is defending the rights and opinions of Parliament against THE PEOPLE, and their vote in 2016. That is why his position is so wrong, and so unsustainable
    The House of Commons WAS ELECED BY THE PEOPLE. Now please stop shouting.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,008
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    So if we assume that this is 4D Chess (is there any other kind, the whole point of chess being to calculate what the board will look like at some point in the future)

    Where are you getting the 4th dimension from :) ? Chess is a well defined problem on a 2D plane ;)
    My pieces sat in 3 dimensions but I take the point that they moved in 2.
    They move in three[1]: the horsey has to jump over the prawns. Obvs. :)

    [1] OK, as it involves motion thru time, also four. We happy now?

    Yes that's what I meant all along. Obviously. :-)
    :)
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847

    Oh god are we now going to get the borefest of a signature count update every 15mins ala the clarkson one and the last anti-brexit one.

    142,876 :)
    150,088 :-)
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833
    Pulpstar said:

    Paging @Foxy, Where's the "Warren steamroller" ?

    Real Clear poll averages

    Biden 27.3
    Sanders 19.2
    Warren 16.0
    Harris 7.2

    Not much sign of it here either :

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    I am comfortable with my current position. I am on Warren at 20 for Dem nominee.

    Lay her at 3.1 if you choose :)
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924
    Jonathan said:

    Johnson is trying to provoke an election.

    Which is precisely why Parliament would be stupid to oblige him. Let Johnson suspend Parliament and dig himself a giant No Deal Brexit shaped hole and then let him fall right into it. It is the only way to resolve this now.
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    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    The SNP’s position confuses me, here.

    They are, apparently, fighting tooth and nail against No Deal Brexit.

    Which is fair enough. But how does that square with their independence campaign, if they ever get a 2nd referendum?

    “Vote YES for an instant No Deal Scottish exit: from the United Kingdom AND the EU!”

    That seems quite a hard sell, in the circs
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436
    Scott_P said:
    Oh F! The Queen has now been dragged into it all. Dangerous
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,912

    Oh god are we now going to get the borefest of a signature count update every 15mins ala the clarkson one and the last anti-brexit one.

    142,876 :)
    It's taken 5 minutes to add 10 000 votes.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,881
    I wonder if we're going to see Conservative MPs resign the whip imminently.
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    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,301
    justin124 said:

    There has to be the possibility that Johnson's action will make some Tory MPs and Change UK more receptive to having Corbyn as caretaker PM following a successful VNOC.

    Among many other things, my sense is that this is a pretty decent shove to Anti No Dealers to shit or get off the pot. Their options seem to be narrowing: I'd be surprised if the courts intervene in how parliament runs itself, and this must strike a line through quite a few of the procedural options. If they've not made significant progress on "taking back control" or VONCing before prorogation, I'd say it's probably almost game over.
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    Byronic said:

    The SNP’s position confuses me, here.

    They are, apparently, fighting tooth and nail against No Deal Brexit.

    Which is fair enough. But how does that square with their independence campaign, if they ever get a 2nd referendum?

    “Vote YES for an instant No Deal Scottish exit: from the United Kingdom AND the EU!”

    That seems quite a hard sell, in the circs

    Uk bad...eu good... simples.
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    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Where the government is very vulnerable on any legal challenge is the why question. Why is this prorogation unusually long? The only answer is one that reflects its own lack of control of Parliament. Should the courts assist the executive in avoiding Parliamentary scrutiny? It’s very hard to see why that should be a permissible reason for proroguing.

    Are they obliged under law to provide a reason? Genuine question.
    Imagine you're the barrister in front of an eminent judge with limited patience. Your opposite number is alleging that you're doing this to frustrate democracy. The judge peers over his varifocals and says:

    "So, Mr 4, why is your client taking such an unusually long period of time for prorogation at such a hectic period in British politics against a tight deadline?"

    The response "I'm not at liberty to say" is not really going to cut it.
    That would indeed be unwise. But an answer such as, "well after such a very long session and a substantial change of cabinet we want a full Queens Speech with a a panoply of bills covering a wide range of subjects and this takes time to organise" is quite difficult to disprove.

    Edit, and Lord Doherty doesn't wear varifocals. You'd be right about the limited patience though.
    Wouldn't the judge then say 'Answer the fucking question!', or words to that effect?
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    spire2 said:

    What if the EU unilaterally extends the deadline?

    They cannot. It requires the agreement of all countries including the UK.That is according to the Treaty.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So 3 years hasn’t been enough for remoaners and an extra 3 days will make all the difference ?

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    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    The SNP’s position confuses me, here.

    They are, apparently, fighting tooth and nail against No Deal Brexit.

    Which is fair enough. But how does that square with their independence campaign, if they ever get a 2nd referendum?

    “Vote YES for an instant No Deal Scottish exit: from the United Kingdom AND the EU!”

    That seems quite a hard sell, in the circs

    The UK could be very mischievous and say the only deal they will agree to is one that keeps British law over Scotland with no exit clause.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,008
    eristdoof said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    So if we assume that this is 4D Chess (is there any other kind, the whole point of chess being to calculate what the board will look like at some point in the future)

    Where are you getting the 4th dimension from :) ? Chess is a well defined problem on a 2D plane ;)
    My pieces sat in 3 dimensions but I take the point that they moved in 2.
    They move in three[1]: the horsey has to jump over the prawns. Obvs. :)

    [1] OK, as it involves motion thru time, also four. We happy now?

    Play chess in an accelerating train and the physicists will model it using nine dimensions.
    Imagine a chess piece around a Planck length...
  • Options



    Imagine you're the barrister in front of an eminent judge with limited patience. Your opposite number is alleging that you're doing this to frustrate democracy. The judge peers over his varifocals and says:

    And says...

    'Get on with implementing the referendum result.'


    The lack of self-awareness of remainers is frankly astounding.

    The lack of constitutional awareness is frankly astounding.

    1. Parliament is sovereign. Now that is, whilst still in the EU.
    2. No parliament can bind the hands of a successor parliament
    3. 2015 parliament enacts a referendum. In our constitution power resides in the Crown in Parliament. Referenda are legally non-binding, may be considered to be politically by choice but in any case see point 2
    4. 2017 parliament choses to try and enact the 2016 referendum. Because the election delivered a hung parliament it chooses not to authorise acceptance of the deal, and votes to not allow leaving without a deal
    5. "Will of the people" is what was delivered in 2017 at the election. That supercedes all previous votes which is why a defeated government can't refuse to go, pointing to their win at a prior election

    Its very very simple. If you want MPs to make a different political choice over Brexit, then elect new ones. The current parliament is legally and constitutionally sovereign to refuse to implement the actions of a previous parliament. That is very explicitly the parliamentary sovereignty that Brexiteers claim they voted for.

    So if they didn't vote for sovereignty. And they didn't vote to be better off (because "I'd rather eat grass") then that only leaves racism. They voted to leave to chuck anyone out they don't like. CF Priti "Hang 'Em" Patel's pronouncements on free movement the minute we leave
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Where the government is very vulnerable on any legal challenge is the why question. Why is this prorogation unusually long? The only answer is one that reflects its own lack of control of Parliament. Should the courts assist the executive in avoiding Parliamentary scrutiny? It’s very hard to see why that should be a permissible reason for proroguing.

    Are they obliged under law to provide a reason? Genuine question.
    Imagine you're the barrister in front of an eminent judge with limited patience. Your opposite number is alleging that you're doing this to frustrate democracy. The judge peers over his varifocals and says:

    "So, Mr 4, why is your client taking such an unusually long period of time for prorogation at such a hectic period in British politics against a tight deadline?"

    The response "I'm not at liberty to say" is not really going to cut it.
    That would indeed be unwise. But an answer such as, "well after such a very long session and a substantial change of cabinet we want a full Queens Speech with a a panoply of bills covering a wide range of subjects and this takes time to organise" is quite difficult to disprove.

    Edit, and Lord Doherty doesn't wear varifocals. You'd be right about the limited patience though.
    Presumably the assessment of reasons would be on a balance of probabilities? On the one hand, a lot of weight would be given to the government's assertions, simply by being the government. On the other hand, it does all look inexplicable in terms of immediate timing. Your explanation does not explain why in September/October rather than November/December.
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    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    spire2 said:

    What if the EU unilaterally extends the deadline?

    They cannot. It requires the agreement of all countries including the UK.That is according to the Treaty.
    Boris wants to parliamemt to return in mid-October. Can't parliamemt force an extension then?
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    Can we just stop all the dicking around for the next two months and just get to the GE.
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    Byronic said:
    Philip Lee, Justine Greening, or Dominic Grieve would be my guesses.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920
    Big news, and it feels like we are moving into the end game at long last.

    If Johnson succeeds in proroguing and thus forcing us out on the basis of No Deal, I really can't see that being a lasting settlement. It will surely mean an election very soon after?
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,881

    Byronic said:
    Philip Lee, Justine Greening, or Dominic Grieve would be my guesses.
    Guto Bebb.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847

    Gabs2 said:

    This seems like the best argument for Remainers. Has there ever been one over 5 weeks?
    Yes 1997. When Major arranged a 6 week one
    Not so.

    "The UK Parliament was prorogued for just under three weeks before being formally dissolved ahead of the 1997 General Election."

    according to the HoC Briefing Paper Number 8589
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,912



    Imagine you're the barrister in front of an eminent judge with limited patience. Your opposite number is alleging that you're doing this to frustrate democracy. The judge peers over his varifocals and says:

    And says...

    'Get on with implementing the referendum result.'


    The lack of self-awareness of remainers is frankly astounding.

    The lack of constitutional awareness is frankly astounding.

    1. Parliament is sovereign. Now that is, whilst still in the EU.
    2. No parliament can bind the hands of a successor parliament
    3. 2015 parliament enacts a referendum. In our constitution power resides in the Crown in Parliament. Referenda are legally non-binding, may be considered to be politically by choice but in any case see point 2
    4. 2017 parliament choses to try and enact the 2016 referendum. Because the election delivered a hung parliament it chooses not to authorise acceptance of the deal, and votes to not allow leaving without a deal
    5. "Will of the people" is what was delivered in 2017 at the election. That supercedes all previous votes which is why a defeated government can't refuse to go, pointing to their win at a prior election

    Its very very simple. If you want MPs to make a different political choice over Brexit, then elect new ones. The current parliament is legally and constitutionally sovereign to refuse to implement the actions of a previous parliament. That is very explicitly the parliamentary sovereignty that Brexiteers claim they voted for.

    So if they didn't vote for sovereignty. And they didn't vote to be better off (because "I'd rather eat grass") then that only leaves racism. They voted to leave to chuck anyone out they don't like. CF Priti "Hang 'Em" Patel's pronouncements on free movement the minute we leave
    It was also the 2015 Parliament which passed Article 50 not the 2017 Parliament.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    Byronic said:
    Phillip Lee or Justine Greening.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920
    Scott_P said:
    Betting on Tory MPs to put country before party is not a winning strategy.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Can we just stop all the dicking around for the next two months and just get to the GE.

    Good idea. I could get my target lists ready.
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    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Wild prediction: the VONC will succeed, Boris will fall, there will be an A50 extension under a caretaker government, probably Corbyn. At the ensuing GE Boris will win, but he will be promising... what?

    There my clairvoyant skills expire.
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    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    rkrkrk said:

    Big news, and it feels like we are moving into the end game at long last.

    If Johnson succeeds in proroguing and thus forcing us out on the basis of No Deal, I really can't see that being a lasting settlement. It will surely mean an election very soon after?

    Of course it won't be a lasting settlement. We will have to quickly sign up for a deal shortly afterwards, which will be the Withdrawal Agreement or something close to it. So we are goimg to get to the same place via a much more destructive route.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    Scott_P said:
    Hard to see how they retain credibility or dignity if they dont, given those comments.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,016
    On Phil Hammond as next PM at 100-1. He sounded less than gruntled.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,008
    TGOHF said:

    So 3 years hasn’t been enough for remoaners and an extra 3 days will make all the difference ?

    I refer you to Rule 1.1 (as amended)...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Byronic said:
    Could also be Bebb, Lee, Greening, Grieve, Sandbach.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847

    Petition not to prorogue parliament over 100k now

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157?fbclid=IwAR0xZDEcMTEMXUJ6Ipm10EOt8SkWZL5IuEK8rceZPhuoRtyqvOCk-C-vbnA

    Whereas this one to prorogue parliament has 20 signatures lol.
    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269054

    Going into a 2hr film. Will be disappointed if it's not over 1million before I leave tbh

    I think you'll be lucky there... it's currently going up at about 100k per hour.

    Still, once word gets out it might speed up a bit :-)
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Gabs2 said:

    spire2 said:

    What if the EU unilaterally extends the deadline?

    They cannot. It requires the agreement of all countries including the UK.That is according to the Treaty.
    Boris wants to parliamemt to return in mid-October. Can't parliamemt force an extension then?
    The progration purposely ends after the next scheduled EU summit, so there is no opportunity to an extension to be considered (though given the situation perhaps an emergency summit could be convened?)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    Scott_P said:
    What on earth is she supposed to do now?
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    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    Wild prediction: the VONC will succeed, Boris will fall, there will be an A50 extension under a caretaker government, probably Corbyn. At the ensuing GE Boris will win, but he will be promising... what?

    There my clairvoyant skills expire.

    With a VONC, Boris will call a new election and remain as Prime Minister. So no extension and No Deal.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    edited August 2019
    Boris has put the Queen in an impossible position, the one thing you are not supposed to do.

    Regardless of what side of the Brexit argument your on, that surely is a mistake. Possibly a career ending mistake.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rkrkrk said:

    Big news, and it feels like we are moving into the end game at long last.

    If Johnson succeeds in proroguing and thus forcing us out on the basis of No Deal, I really can't see that being a lasting settlement. It will surely mean an election very soon after?

    There's definitely going to be an election by May next year, at the vey latest.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,095
    isam said:

    Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.

    Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,028
    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Wild prediction: the VONC will succeed, Boris will fall, there will be an A50 extension under a caretaker government, probably Corbyn. At the ensuing GE Boris will win, but he will be promising... what?

    There my clairvoyant skills expire.

    With a VONC, Boris will call a new election and remain as Prime Minister. So no extension and No Deal.
    Boris doesn't call a new election - he can't do that under the FTPA.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    edited August 2019

    Oh god are we now going to get the borefest of a signature count update every 15mins ala the clarkson one and the last anti-brexit one.

    1.01 weighed in

    https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1166685640781705216?s=21
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    Jonathan said:

    Boris has put the Queen in an impossible position, the one thing you are not supposed to do.

    Regardless of what side of the Brexit argument your on, that surely is a mistake. Possibly a career ending mistake.

    No deal brexiteers care nothing for any institutions .
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    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:
    Could also be Bebb, Lee, Greening, Grieve, Sandbach.
    To the Lib Dems I imagine. The remaking of the UK party system along Brexit lines continues.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited August 2019
    Byronic said:

    The SNP’s position confuses me, here.

    They are, apparently, fighting tooth and nail against No Deal Brexit.

    Which is fair enough. But how does that square with their independence campaign, if they ever get a 2nd referendum?

    “Vote YES for an instant No Deal Scottish exit: from the United Kingdom AND the EU!”

    That seems quite a hard sell, in the circs

    Wings over Scotland now saying UK Leave vote must be respected but Scots should seek independence from a post Brexit UK

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/coup-versus-coup/
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,791
    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    Betting on Tory MPs to put country before party is not a winning strategy.
    Total bollox, many of them have already, and have continued to do so in the face of extreme bullying and sometimes death threats.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005

    isam said:

    Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.

    Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.
    They were elected on the promise of respecting the referendum result
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    Hancock and Rudd MUST resign, Shirley?
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920
    Gabs2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Big news, and it feels like we are moving into the end game at long last.

    If Johnson succeeds in proroguing and thus forcing us out on the basis of No Deal, I really can't see that being a lasting settlement. It will surely mean an election very soon after?

    Of course it won't be a lasting settlement. We will have to quickly sign up for a deal shortly afterwards, which will be the Withdrawal Agreement or something close to it. So we are goimg to get to the same place via a much more destructive route.
    Dunno about that, I suspect sorting a deal after this mess will be tricky as well as urgent. If I were the EU i would at least wait for a GE to see if they have to deal with Johnson or Corbyn.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    What on earth is she supposed to do now?
    Hide in a bunker underneath Balmoral until 1st November
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847
    Byronic said:

    Wild prediction: the VONC will succeed, Boris will fall, there will be an A50 extension under a caretaker government, probably Corbyn. At the ensuing GE Boris will win, but he will be promising... what?

    There my clairvoyant skills expire.

    Have you checked with @HYUFD to see if you are right?
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    DavidL said:

    Let's assume for the moment that the proposed application for interim interdict doesn't succeed. Let's assume that Parliament convenes next week and a VONC is moved and passed. Do Labour support a motion for instant dissolution of Parliament or do we wait 14 days? Surely it has to be instant if we are to have an election before 31st October. Furthermore how does dissolution and the FTPA interact? How can you have a vote of confidence if Parliament isn't sitting? I think that it is at least implied that Parliament is sitting for those 14 days.

    If parliament has taken control of the agenda, is it possible for them to first pass a change to the FTPA then a VONC?
    I did wonder about this last month. It only takes a simple majority to revoke the FTPA so itbis easier to do that than actually get an election passed. .
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,016
    viewcode said:

    Quick question. What does "prorogation" actually mean in this context? Specifically, will Parliament still be *sitting* next week?

    Apparently so. Another question. Doesn't Parliament vote to rise? If it doesn't assent, it continues to sit?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847
    Scott_P said:

    That seems like quite a clever move from Corbyn tbf.
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    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Hancock and Rudd MUST resign, Shirley?

    Riley ?
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    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    eek said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Wild prediction: the VONC will succeed, Boris will fall, there will be an A50 extension under a caretaker government, probably Corbyn. At the ensuing GE Boris will win, but he will be promising... what?

    There my clairvoyant skills expire.

    With a VONC, Boris will call a new election and remain as Prime Minister. So no extension and No Deal.
    Boris doesn't call a new election - he can't do that under the FTPA.
    A new election is called by the VONC, with a 14 day waiting period, unless a VOC happens. Boris not resigning and not recommending a successor means there is no alternative government to get a VOC.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,095
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.

    Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.
    They were elected on the promise of respecting the referendum result
    Who was? Not the Lib Dems. Not the SNP. Not the Green Party. Not Plaid Cymru.

    If you mean the Labour Party, they were elected to implement their version of a soft Brexit. Not any old Brexit. Certainly not no deal.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    What on earth is she supposed to do now?
    Tell Corbyn to hold a VONC next week, if it succeeds she appoints a new PM or calls a general election, if it fails Boris remains PM and she prorogues Parliament as requested
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    BBC's Birmingham vox-pop overwhelmingly in support of Boris's move, feeling that the Brexit debate has gone on long enough, it needs to be sorted and there needs to be certainty.

    Somewhat contradicts BBC bedwetting.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Quick question. What does "prorogation" actually mean in this context? Specifically, will Parliament still be *sitting* next week?

    Apparently so. Another question. Doesn't Parliament vote to rise? If it doesn't assent, it continues to sit?
    And could they take the decision to prorogue out of the Royal Prerogative
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:
    Betting on Tory MPs to put country before party is not a winning strategy.
    Total bollox, many of them have already, and have continued to do so in the face of extreme bullying and sometimes death threats.
    I must have missed the mass defections promised when Boris became leader and went for No Deal. I'll admit that a few have followed through, but the vast majority have not.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.

    Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.
    They were elected on the promise of respecting the referendum result
    Who was? Not the Lib Dems. Not the SNP. Not the Green Party. Not Plaid Cymru.

    If you mean the Labour Party, they were elected to implement their version of a soft Brexit. Not any old Brexit. Certainly not no deal.
    Sad
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    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    DavidL said:

    Let's assume for the moment that the proposed application for interim interdict doesn't succeed. Let's assume that Parliament convenes next week and a VONC is moved and passed. Do Labour support a motion for instant dissolution of Parliament or do we wait 14 days? Surely it has to be instant if we are to have an election before 31st October. Furthermore how does dissolution and the FTPA interact? How can you have a vote of confidence if Parliament isn't sitting? I think that it is at least implied that Parliament is sitting for those 14 days.

    If parliament has taken control of the agenda, is it possible for them to first pass a change to the FTPA then a VONC?
    I did wonder about this last month. It only takes a simple majority to revoke the FTPA so itbis easier to do that than actually get an election passed. .
    But it again comes back to rigging the established rules to favour their own side. This is becoming increasingly normal and is very dangerous.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Hard to see how they retain credibility or dignity if they dont, given those comments.
    Both of them have gone up in my estimation. A bit, anyway....... I wonder if my Tory MP will stick his neck out too. After all, he was recently given the order of the boot by Johnson, so he might.
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    Byronic said:

    Wild prediction: the VONC will succeed, Boris will fall, there will be an A50 extension under a caretaker government, probably Corbyn. At the ensuing GE Boris will win, but he will be promising... what?

    There my clairvoyant skills expire.

    Have you checked with @HYUFD to see if you are right?
    If there has been an extension then Boris will promise to leave on whatever the new date is (31st Jan?)
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    isam said:

    Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.

    Good to see you posting again, Sam. And agree wholeheartedly. The fact that our society could be as heartless as to leave behind Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of our national disgraces.
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    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Hard to see how they retain credibility or dignity if they dont, given those comments.
    Let's see. Red boxes. Chauffer driven cars......
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    Oh god are we now going to get the borefest of a signature count update every 15mins ala the clarkson one and the last anti-brexit one.

    179,385 :)
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Is it okay to talk about "war" then now?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    DavidL said:

    Let's assume for the moment that the proposed application for interim interdict doesn't succeed. Let's assume that Parliament convenes next week and a VONC is moved and passed. Do Labour support a motion for instant dissolution of Parliament or do we wait 14 days? Surely it has to be instant if we are to have an election before 31st October. Furthermore how does dissolution and the FTPA interact? How can you have a vote of confidence if Parliament isn't sitting? I think that it is at least implied that Parliament is sitting for those 14 days.

    If parliament has taken control of the agenda, is it possible for them to first pass a change to the FTPA then a VONC?
    I did wonder about this last month. It only takes a simple majority to revoke the FTPA so itbis easier to do that than actually get an election passed. .
    I'd supposed the issue was who could propose that change to the FTPA. Wouldn't it be for the Govt. to propose such changes? How does the Opposition bring it about?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    The key comments so far seem to me to be the anti-Brexit but anti-Corbyn rebels (not least Grieve) who are starting to switch to backing a VONC instead of pursuing new legislation. If that gathers steam then Johnson could be out by the end of next week, irrespective of what happens then.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,016

    BBC's Birmingham vox-pop overwhelmingly in support of Boris's move, feeling that the Brexit debate has gone on long enough, it needs to be sorted and there needs to be certainty.

    Somewhat contradicts BBC bedwetting.

    BBC Birmingham vox pops having an historic and valued role in our unwritten constitution.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,095
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.

    Those MPs were elected by the people in 2017. If Boris doesn't like it he should call an election.
    They were elected on the promise of respecting the referendum result
    Who was? Not the Lib Dems. Not the SNP. Not the Green Party. Not Plaid Cymru.

    If you mean the Labour Party, they were elected to implement their version of a soft Brexit. Not any old Brexit. Certainly not no deal.
    Sad
    What did I say that was untrue or incorrect?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Well done to Boris. The behaviour of the MPs trying to suffocate the public into Remain because they lost the referendum meant something drastic was needed to explode the impasse. The refusal to listen to those left behind by those who do well out of the status quo was the entire reason Leave won. They never learn.

    Good to see you posting again, Sam. And agree wholeheartedly. The fact that our society could be as heartless as to leave behind Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of our national disgraces.
    How bored must I be?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    The SNP’s position confuses me, here.

    They are, apparently, fighting tooth and nail against No Deal Brexit.

    Which is fair enough. But how does that square with their independence campaign, if they ever get a 2nd referendum?

    “Vote YES for an instant No Deal Scottish exit: from the United Kingdom AND the EU!”

    That seems quite a hard sell, in the circs

    Wings over Scotland now saying UK Leave vote must be respected but Scots should seek independence from a post Brexit UK

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/coup-versus-coup/
    You earlier said that Boris was right to prorogue parliament as it had thwarted the will of the people over Brexit. Boris said in his interview that it was nothing to do with Brexit, it was to push forward his domestic agenda.

    Which of you is right?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    Johnson risks paying a high political price for this without receiving any political benefit because even this kind of gesture doesn't change the substance.
This discussion has been closed.