politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters pile on to a 2019 general election in reaction to John
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Deleted: sources differ.0
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Flavible has Thornberry losing her seat to the Lib Dems based on the last YouGov. Not very believable I feel.
Jeremy Hunt as well.0 -
When discussing prioritising the northern section / NPR over the southern section of HS2 it is worth remembering that HS2 Phase 1 and Phase 2A could start immediately, the legislation is in place, the contracts tendered, it's ready to go.AndyJS said:
I don't think HS2 will be cancelled altogether. Bits of it might be. Apparently Johnson wants to keep the northern section.ExiledInScotland said:Surely the odds are higher on cancelling HS2 than a 2019 election?
HS2 Phase 2B (the bit north of Crewe) and NPR does not even have the final plans confirmed yet, they are due at the end of this year.
Following that we should expect about 5 years of consultation and then progression through parliament to obtain the required legal powers, by which time the construction of the southern end of HS2 will be nearing completion (2024 - 2026 are down for 'testing' in HS2 plans for Phase 1).
Reality is delaying Phase 1 of HS2 does nothing to speed up phase 2 or NPR, in fact it would probably totally destroy the business case for both as the infrastructure would be far less utilised and deliver far lower benefits.
Finally, I always take note that it is southern politicians, southern media commentators etc. that are calling for HS2 to be changed, for the southern end to be delayed etc.
You will find the mayors, councils, business leaders, media commentators from the north almost unanimously calling for HS2 and NPR to all be built in full and a soon as possible, but like usual those voices are being drowned out.2 -
As ManchesterKurt says, you can't just do that: the northern section is not ready to go (and part of the delay is to get it to fit in better with the proposed NPR).AndyJS said:
I don't think HS2 will be cancelled altogether. Bits of it might be. Apparently Johnson wants to keep the northern section.ExiledInScotland said:Surely the odds are higher on cancelling HS2 than a 2019 election?
Here's a prediction: if HS2 phase 1/2A is cancelled, then the rest will be cancelled in the two/three years it takes to finish developing the proposal and get all the paperwork done. Most of the same arguments used against phase 1/2A can also be used against phase 2 and NPR.0 -
A cabinet constructed to increase the odds on the EU refusing an extention?0
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Exactly, the business case for HS2 relies on the section from Euston to Rugby on the whole given the capacity (track capacity as opposed to seat capacity) to bolster the case.JosiasJessop said:
As ManchesterKurt says, you can't just do that: the northern section is not ready to go (and part of the delay is to get it to fit in better with the proposed NPR).AndyJS said:
I don't think HS2 will be cancelled altogether. Bits of it might be. Apparently Johnson wants to keep the northern section.ExiledInScotland said:Surely the odds are higher on cancelling HS2 than a 2019 election?
Here's a prediction: if HS2 phase 1/2A is cancelled, then the rest will be cancelled in the two/three years it takes to finish developing the proposal and get all the paperwork done. Most of the same arguments used against phase 1/2A can also be used against phase 2 and NPR.
Without that section the overall business case for HS2 will collapse and not see the treasury funding it, without HS2 then the sections into Manchester, Leeds etc. will be massively under utilised by only NPR and the business case again would collapse.
If any of HS2 ends up being cancelled that dominos will fall and the reality is we will probably end up with NPR being refurbished Pacers.
No HS2 southern end of HS2 will be a sign that whilst there has not been a new railway line built in the north for well over 100 years, chances of a new one in the next 100 years will just about have evaporated and people will wonder why the northern economy under performs.0 -
Actions speak louder than words. He's accepted a job working for him, so based on that I'd say I disagree with you.The_Taxman said:
He looked shocked, deflated and mournful when Boris was declared the winner. He probably knows Boris better than anyone! He is not the sort to turn on his brother imo but his demeanor spoke volumes.surbiton19 said:
JJ's political principles are even lower than BJ's.AndyJS said:0 -
Regardless of the calibre of the appointees, this reshuffle has gone a hell of a lot smoother than May's pathetic last attempt.0
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Think about all the Tories of your nightmares and they're all in the cabinet. I thought that branch of Torydom had gone with the exit of Thatcher.The new Tory Party of Cameron seemed almost civiilised. Whether this one succeeds in electoral terms I don't really care. The split in the country is now guaranteed and at least I know who I'm voting against0
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Morning all. Well that was a night of the long knives!
99 days until Brexit!0 -
Remarkable the number of Johnson's cabinet previously sacked for impropriety.mwjfrome17 said:We have swapped Penny Morduant (well respected) for Theresa Villiers (she is insane) and reinstated Gavin Williamson (shit pottery salesman and disgraced leaker) .
Dominic Raab (shallow sex pest) is our foreign secretary ( I suppose he fits in well with the one before last).
So depressed.0 -
May couldn't (or at least didn't). And got deservedly criticised for looking weak. No one thinks Johnson looks weak.Roger said:
You could stand outside Wormwood Scrubbs and have a Cabinet in five minutes. It's all about the calibre of the appointees.Endillion said:Regardless of the calibre of the appointees, this reshuffle has gone a hell of a lot smoother than May's pathetic last attempt.
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That stage comes later. Not much later, given the nature of this reshuffle.Endillion said:
May couldn't (or at least didn't). And got deservedly criticised for looking weak. No one thinks Johnson looks weak.Roger said:
You could stand outside Wormwood Scrubbs and have a Cabinet in five minutes. It's all about the calibre of the appointees.Endillion said:Regardless of the calibre of the appointees, this reshuffle has gone a hell of a lot smoother than May's pathetic last attempt.
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The Chairman of the Conservative Muslim Forum has just resigned from the Tory Party.HYUFD said:
India, population 1.3 million, Pakistan population 212 000.surbiton19 said:
Bangladeshis are Muslims. Modi's sidekick Amit Shah has accused Bangladeshis of being vermin and accused Bangladeshis of forcing out Hindus.HYUFD said:
Bangladeshis are no fans of Pakistanis and are closer to Indians, ae boardsurbiton19 said:
As usual you are talking complete tosh and hoping no one would notice.HYUFD said:
There are over 6 times more Indian Asians than Pakistani Asians thoughsurbiton19 said:
All Asians are not Indian and not all Indians are East African Indian.HYUFD said:
Priti Patel is of Indian heritage, obviously no love lost between Pakistan and India even todayDrutt said:
You knowHYUFD said:
Patel will go down well with the Asian vote as well as back Brexit Party voters and win Labour Leave marginal seats.Richard_Tyndall said:Philip_Thompson said:
I disagree with her on the death penalty, but I've not heard anything xenophobic from her like Theresa "Go Home" May.
But the appointment of Patel does genuinely nt.
She is also friends with Narendra Modi which will help in talks with India on a FTA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_the_United_Kingdom
Bangladeshi and Pakistanis outnumber Indians and a majority of Indians in the UK are not Narendra Modi fans. His support base is mostly Gujrati.
You should see a Bangladesh-India cricket match to see how "close" they are to each other.
Bangladesh has grown >6% per year for the last 20 years. The current growth rate = 8%. In 2021 , Bangladesh GDP per capita will exceed India's.
https://www.adb.org/countries/bangladesh/economy
Modi won because of a divided opposition. He hardly won even 10 seats in Southern India.
How did you come up with the stat that there were 6 times more Indians than Pakistanis ?
If Bangladeshis see their GDP per capita grow that will mean so will their wealth in the UK making them more likely to be Tories.
Given I campaigned with members of Conservative Friends of Pakistan in the local elections there are even Pakistani Tories, indeed Javid is of Pakistani heritage so with the new Chancellor and Home Secretary the first Pakistani Britain and Indian Britain to hold the roles the Tories have both the biggest British Asian groups covered in the new Cabinet
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Would Hunt have agreed to remain in cabinet with a demotion, had it not involved the sacking of one of his strong backers, who was respected in her ministerial role ?0
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LOL!!!alex. said:
The Chairman of the Conservative Muslim Forum has just resigned from the Tory Party.HYUFD said:
India, population 1.3 million, Pakistan population 212 000.surbiton19 said:
Bangladeshis are Muslims. Modi's sidekick Amit Shah has accused Bangladeshis of being vermin and accused Bangladeshis of forcing out Hindus.HYUFD said:
Bangladeshis are no fans of Pakistanis and are closer to Indians, ae boardsurbiton19 said:
As usual you are talking complete tosh and hoping no one would notice.HYUFD said:
There are over 6 times more Indian Asians than Pakistani Asians thoughsurbiton19 said:
All Asians are not Indian and not all Indians are East African Indian.HYUFD said:
Priti Patel is of Indian heritage, obviously no love lost between Pakistan and India even todayDrutt said:
You knowHYUFD said:
Patel will go down well with the Asian vote as well as back Brexit Party voters and win Labour Leave marginal seats.Richard_Tyndall said:Philip_Thompson said:
I disagree with her on the death penalty, but I've not heard anything xenophobic from her like Theresa "Go Home" May.
But the appointment of Patel does genuinely nt.
She is also friends with Narendra Modi which will help in talks with India on a FTA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_the_United_Kingdom
Bangladeshi and Pakistanis outnumber Indians and a majority of Indians in the UK are not Narendra Modi fans. His support base is mostly Gujrati.
You should see a Bangladesh-India cricket match to see how "close" they are to each other.
Bangladesh has grown >6% per year for the last 20 years. The current growth rate = 8%. In 2021 , Bangladesh GDP per capita will exceed India's.
https://www.adb.org/countries/bangladesh/economy
Modi won because of a divided opposition. He hardly won even 10 seats in Southern India.
How did you come up with the stat that there were 6 times more Indians than Pakistanis ?
If Bangladeshis see their GDP per capita grow that will mean so will their wealth in the UK making them more likely to be Tories.
Given I campaigned with members of Conservative Friends of Pakistan in the local elections there are even Pakistani Tories, indeed Javid is of Pakistani heritage so with the new Chancellor and Home Secretary the first Pakistani Britain and Indian Britain to hold the roles the Tories have both the biggest British Asian groups covered in the new Cabinet0 -
I know that this is bound to be a minority opinion in these parts, but I'm delighted with how events have transpired, for one simple reason. It now looks almost certain that this wretched, useless Parliament is about to be put out of our misery, and the terms under which the members of the next one will be elected are, likewise, almost certain to end the Brexit stalemate. Either the Tories will win the General Election and we'll leave the EU, or they won't and we'll stay in.
Of course, neither outcome will stop the interminable, tedious arguing over the issue (caveat: if we do leave and it's not the total disaster the pro-EU movement is praying for, then they might as well pack up and go home,) but we won't be stuck in limbo until 2022 because the existing House of Commons is wholly incapable of agreeing on any course of action. Whatever your opinion of Boris Johnson and his new Cabinet, we should all be grateful for that.2 -
I agreeBlack_Rook said:I know that this is bound to be a minority opinion in these parts, but I'm delighted with how events have transpired, for one simple reason. It now looks almost certain that this wretched, useless Parliament is about to be put out of our misery, and the terms under which the members of the next one will be elected are, likewise, almost certain to end the Brexit stalemate. Either the Tories will win the General Election and we'll leave the EU, or they won't and we'll stay in.
Of course, neither outcome will stop the interminable, tedious arguing over the issue (caveat: if we do leave and it's not the total disaster the pro-EU movement is praying for, then they might as well pack up and go home,) but we won't be stuck in limbo until 2022 because the existing House of Commons is wholly incapable of agreeing on any course of action. Whatever your opinion of Boris Johnson and his new Cabinet, we should all be grateful for that.0 -
Not sure it is much of a minority opinion among the public, although it may be among the commentariat. Most people just want an end to the three years of limbo, and for those in charge to be decisive. Whatever your opinion of Boris, he’s certainly off to a strong start.Black_Rook said:I know that this is bound to be a minority opinion in these parts, but I'm delighted with how events have transpired, for one simple reason. It now looks almost certain that this wretched, useless Parliament is about to be put out of our misery, and the terms under which the members of the next one will be elected are, likewise, almost certain to end the Brexit stalemate. Either the Tories will win the General Election and we'll leave the EU, or they won't and we'll stay in.
Of course, neither outcome will stop the interminable, tedious arguing over the issue (caveat: if we do leave and it's not the total disaster the pro-EU movement is praying for, then they might as well pack up and go home,) but we won't be stuck in limbo until 2022 because the existing House of Commons is wholly incapable of agreeing on any course of action. Whatever your opinion of Boris Johnson and his new Cabinet, we should all be grateful for that.0 -
I doubt whether this Parliament is going anywhere any time soon. And I doubt the stalemate is going to end any time soon either, unless the EU chooses to end it.Black_Rook said:I know that this is bound to be a minority opinion in these parts, but I'm delighted with how events have transpired, for one simple reason. It now looks almost certain that this wretched, useless Parliament is about to be put out of our misery, and the terms under which the members of the next one will be elected are, likewise, almost certain to end the Brexit stalemate. Either the Tories will win the General Election and we'll leave the EU, or they won't and we'll stay in.
Of course, neither outcome will stop the interminable, tedious arguing over the issue (caveat: if we do leave and it's not the total disaster the pro-EU movement is praying for, then they might as well pack up and go home,) but we won't be stuck in limbo until 2022 because the existing House of Commons is wholly incapable of agreeing on any course of action. Whatever your opinion of Boris Johnson and his new Cabinet, we should all be grateful for that.
The most interesting question now is what the non death cult bit of the Conservative party is going to do next. They’ve got no excuse to wait for events, have they?0 -
A cabinet constructed to agree on the central policy objective of the Government, which represents a radical departure from what went before.philiph said:A cabinet constructed to increase the odds on the EU refusing an extention?
Honestly, all the hyperventilation over the fact that the Prime Minister has insisted that his appointees all sign up to his determination to leave the EU within a given timeframe is ridiculous. Expecting Johnson to accommodate people who waiver in their commitment to Brexit is a bit like expecting Corbyn to appoint shadow ministers who reject socialism.1 -
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There were a lot of people as recently as the weekend thinking that Boris Johnson would tack to the centre on election. We won’t hear much from them now.Black_Rook said:
A cabinet constructed to agree on the central policy objective of the Government, which represents a radical departure from what went before.philiph said:A cabinet constructed to increase the odds on the EU refusing an extention?
Honestly, all the hyperventilation over the fact that the Prime Minister has insisted that his appointees all sign up to his determination to leave the EU within a given timeframe is ridiculous. Expecting Johnson to accommodate people who waiver in their commitment to Brexit is a bit like expecting Corbyn to appoint shadow ministers who reject socialism.
My best guess is that he is now aiming for prorogation. Sooner or later Leavers are each going to have to decide whether they’re ok with the suspension of democracy.0 -
Early this morning I was listening to a BBC podcast which made the point that the new cabinet is very much a brexiteer cabinet but apart from Patel most voted for the WDA
Furthermore the ' Spartans' lost out so maybe TM WDA mark 2 is the objective
I was really annoyed that Penny lost out and Patel is a very poor appointment as Home Secretary but Patel v Abbott will be fun
The fury on here last night from those wanting to remain was palpable, no doubt caused in some part by the detemination of a Johnson government to leave on the 31st October
However, the die is cast and the next three months is going to be extraordinarily bad tempered, sadly0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Have cast a quick eye over the changes.
On the plus side, Grayling's gone.
Not impressed with those in top jobs though. And I do wonder if Boris has shot himself in the foot. Yes, his top few will likely be loyal, but they'd be pro-Boris anyway. Those who might be persuaded to support him, or not, seem to have been discarded.0 -
Boris's coalition was a remarkable thing, consisting of MPs convinced Boris is a headbanger Brexiteer, and those equally convinced the man is a remainer. What that says about the quality of Conservative hustings I'm not sure.AlastairMeeks said:
There were a lot of people as recently as the weekend thinking that Boris Johnson would tack to the centre on election. We won’t hear much from them now.Black_Rook said:
A cabinet constructed to agree on the central policy objective of the Government, which represents a radical departure from what went before.philiph said:A cabinet constructed to increase the odds on the EU refusing an extention?
Honestly, all the hyperventilation over the fact that the Prime Minister has insisted that his appointees all sign up to his determination to leave the EU within a given timeframe is ridiculous. Expecting Johnson to accommodate people who waiver in their commitment to Brexit is a bit like expecting Corbyn to appoint shadow ministers who reject socialism.
My best guess is that he is now aiming for prorogation. Sooner or later Leavers are each going to have to decide whether they’re ok with the suspension of democracy.
ETA: I am not sure about prorogation; as previously suggested, it is consistent with Boris aiming to ram through a warmed-over WA.0 -
The notion that the current Parliament can keep on going now is for the birds. Boris Johnson has purchased his position with a commitment to act decisively and get us out of the EU, or at least do his damndest to try. If he does a 180-degree about turn and tries to get an A50 extension then he'll be seen by everyone as a more duplicitous version of Theresa May, and will be finished immediately.AlastairMeeks said:
I doubt whether this Parliament is going anywhere any time soon. And I doubt the stalemate is going to end any time soon either, unless the EU chooses to end it.Black_Rook said:I know that this is bound to be a minority opinion in these parts, but I'm delighted with how events have transpired, for one simple reason. It now looks almost certain that this wretched, useless Parliament is about to be put out of our misery, and the terms under which the members of the next one will be elected are, likewise, almost certain to end the Brexit stalemate. Either the Tories will win the General Election and we'll leave the EU, or they won't and we'll stay in.
Of course, neither outcome will stop the interminable, tedious arguing over the issue (caveat: if we do leave and it's not the total disaster the pro-EU movement is praying for, then they might as well pack up and go home,) but we won't be stuck in limbo until 2022 because the existing House of Commons is wholly incapable of agreeing on any course of action. Whatever your opinion of Boris Johnson and his new Cabinet, we should all be grateful for that.
The most interesting question now is what the non death cult bit of the Conservative party is going to do next. They’ve got no excuse to wait for events, have they?
Thus, if, as we all assume, there is no majority in Parliament for No Deal, then the only alternative is a General Election: obviously if he asks for such a thing then the Opposition won't refuse. The only other means to break the logjam is for the "non death cult bit" of the Conservative Party to - rather ironically - commit political seppuku by attempting to stitch up a GNU with the support of virtually all the other parties in the Commons. I don't think that would work because of the Jeremy Corbyn complication, but even if it did then that would result in either revocation or a second referendum, and either of those outcomes would still constitute some form of progress from where we find ourselves stuck at the moment. They would also, ultimately, lead to a General Election in fairly short order, because such a Government would have only one unifying policy and no mandate at all.
No, if Con + DUP won't back No Deal down to the very last man and woman, then a dissolution logically follows.0 -
Looking at the names added and deleted from the cabinet yesterday brought an image to my mind. Not of a prime minister carefully consulting colleagues and whips as he shapes an administration whose composition tells us what kind of Britain he wants: an administration that will pull together and feel like a team; avoiding needlessly wounding or enraging too many other colleagues. Instead, I see a boy alone in a room with crayons and a blank sheet of paper, putting horns on the faces of those he does not like, or who have hurt him, and smiles on the faces of his chums.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/dominic-cummings-is-the-sharp-tongued-recruit-could-cut-boris-johnson-down-qjb56xc9m0 -
The opposition won’t refuse a general election but they will attach conditions to their agreement. The obvious one is an extension of the Article 50 period to allow them to renegotiate on taking office. That this is anathema to the Conservatives is the reverse of their problem.Black_Rook said:
The notion that the current Parliament can keep on going now is for the birds. Boris Johnson has purchased his position with a commitment to act decisively and get us out of the EU, or at least do his damndest to try. If he does a 180-degree about turn and tries to get an A50 extension then he'll be seen by everyone as a more duplicitous version of Theresa May, and will be finished immediately.AlastairMeeks said:
I doubt whether this Parliament is going anywhere any time soon. And I doubt the stalemate is going to end any time soon either, unless the EU chooses to end it.
The most interesting question now is what the non death cult bit of the Conservative party is going to do next. They’ve got no excuse to wait for events, have they?
Thus, if, as we all assume, there is no majority in Parliament for No Deal, then the only alternative is a General Election: obviously if he asks for such a thing then the Opposition won't refuse. The only other means to break the logjam is for the "non death cult bit" of the Conservative Party to - rather ironically - commit political seppuku by attempting to stitch up a GNU with the support of virtually all the other parties in the Commons. I don't think that would work because of the Jeremy Corbyn complication, but even if it did then that would result in either revocation or a second referendum, and either of those outcomes would still constitute some form of progress from where we find ourselves stuck at the moment. They would also, ultimately, lead to a General Election in fairly short order, because such a Government would have only one unifying policy and no mandate at all.
No, if Con + DUP won't back No Deal down to the very last man and woman, then a dissolution logically follows.
Boris Johnson won’t take that risk.0 -
I see that HYUFD is now an expert on British Asians.
As well as geography.
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Could BoZo really be pursuing No Deal as his primary objective?
Food riots, medical supply shortages, the death of the car industry, Tories out of power for a generation?
Not his problem...
The History books will show
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Prime Minister
took the UK (before its dissolution) out of the EU in 2019...0 -
I doubt it but can't face reading walls of text on Cummings' blog for clues as to the real game this early and in this heat.Scott_P said:Could BoZo really be pursuing No Deal as his primary objective?
Food riots, medical supply shortages, the death of the car industry, Tories out of power for a generation?
Not his problem...
The History books will show
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Prime Minister
took the UK (before its dissolution) out of the EU in 2019...0 -
Johnson’s biggest gamble is that No Deal will be no sweat. That’s what he has promised and that’s what he has pinned his future on. Gove has the most important job of all.0
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But it's not much of a gamble for him.SouthamObserver said:Johnson’s biggest gamble is that No Deal will be no sweat. That’s what he has promised and that’s what he has pinned his future on. Gove has the most important job of all.
He has already won the only prize he wanted.
All PM careers end in failure. It doesn't really matter if that happens in 3 months or 3 years.0 -
Yes, this is a No Deal Brexit cabinet, though I have never predicted a Brexit zombie apocalypse. Brexit will go more with a shrug than a bang, and the national decline will mostly be slow, at least initially.Scott_P said:Could BoZo really be pursuing No Deal as his primary objective?
Food riots, medical supply shortages, the death of the car industry, Tories out of power for a generation?
Not his problem...
The History books will show
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Prime Minister
took the UK (before its dissolution) out of the EU in 2019...
Great trolling by Tusk btw:
https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1154044277338415104?s=190 -
I wonder for how long yesterdays events have been in planning.
I’d be tempted to give Michael Gove the task of streamlining our standing functionariat, with Dominic Cummings as his SpAd. That should sort things out. - Dan Hannan, written two weeks ago.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/07/daniel-hannan-for-brexit-to-work-power-must-be-stripped-from-the-quangorats-and-returned-to-people-we-elect.html0 -
Indeed, I think he quite relishes being the Brexit martyr PM, and dining out on it forever.Scott_P said:
But it's not much of a gamble for him.SouthamObserver said:Johnson’s biggest gamble is that No Deal will be no sweat. That’s what he has promised and that’s what he has pinned his future on. Gove has the most important job of all.
He has already won the only prize he wanted.
All PM careers end in failure. It doesn't really matter if that happens in 3 months or 3 years.0 -
Not here, with a bit of luck. We are going through a fairly peaceful phase in our discussions - I've known PB to be much angrier.Big_G_NorthWales said:
However, the die is cast and the next three months is going to be extraordinarily bad tempered, sadly
Just to clear something up in that context - I may have missed it, but did Josias Jessop document what he said about my having attacked Leon Brittan when he was ill? I have zero recollection of ever doing so, and can't remember ever having had any view of him, good or bad.0 -
Of course, the gilded elite of which Johnson and the rest of the loons are a part will be absolutely fine post-No Deal. The gamble is not with their futures, but with the future of the former Conservative and Unionist Party - and the UK itself. I’ve long believed Johnson will be the last Tory PM to win an election in my lifetime and that I will die an English citizen, not a British one. The last 24 hours have strengthened those beliefs.Scott_P said:
But it's not much of a gamble for him.SouthamObserver said:Johnson’s biggest gamble is that No Deal will be no sweat. That’s what he has promised and that’s what he has pinned his future on. Gove has the most important job of all.
He has already won the only prize he wanted.
All PM careers end in failure. It doesn't really matter if that happens in 3 months or 3 years.
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No.AlastairMeeks said:
There were a lot of people as recently as the weekend thinking that Boris Johnson would tack to the centre on election. We won’t hear much from them now.Black_Rook said:
A cabinet constructed to agree on the central policy objective of the Government, which represents a radical departure from what went before.philiph said:A cabinet constructed to increase the odds on the EU refusing an extention?
Honestly, all the hyperventilation over the fact that the Prime Minister has insisted that his appointees all sign up to his determination to leave the EU within a given timeframe is ridiculous. Expecting Johnson to accommodate people who waiver in their commitment to Brexit is a bit like expecting Corbyn to appoint shadow ministers who reject socialism.
My best guess is that he is now aiming for prorogation. Sooner or later Leavers are each going to have to decide whether they’re ok with the suspension of democracy.0 -
Cummings from May last year.
Suggests the reshuffle is only the start.
“Yes there are things you can do to mitigate the train wreck. For example, it requires using the period summer 2019 to autumn 2021 to change the political landscape, which is incompatible with the continuation of the May/Hammond brand of stagnation punctuated by rubbish crisis management. If you go into the 2022 campaign after five years of this and the contest is Tory promises versus Corbyn promises, you will be maximising the odds of Corbyn as PM. Since 1945, only once has a party trying to win a third term increased its number of seats. Not Thatcher. Not Blair. 1959 — after swapping Eden for Macmillan and with over ~6% growth the year before the vote. You will be starting without a majority (unlike others fighting for a third term). You won’t have half that growth — you will need something else.
Shuffling some people is necessary but extremely far from sufficient. “
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Will Mike Smithson sack this thread after a night of the long thread or determine to do or die with it until the first cabinet resignation at 9:00am ....
The jury is out .... like most of Mrs May's cabinet !!
Edit - SACKED !!0 -
Good post. The southern end of HS2 won’t be ready by 2024-26 though.ManchesterKurt said:
When discussing prioritising the northern section / NPR over the southern section of HS2 it is worth remembering that HS2 Phase 1 and Phase 2A could start immediately, the legislation is in place, the contracts tendered, it's ready to go.AndyJS said:
I don't think HS2 will be cancelled altogether. Bits of it might be. Apparently Johnson wants to keep the northern section.ExiledInScotland said:Surely the odds are higher on cancelling HS2 than a 2019 election?
HS2 Phase 2B (the bit north of Crewe) and NPR does not even have the final plans confirmed yet, they are due at the end of this year.
Following that we should expect about 5 years of consultation and then progression through parliament to obtain the required legal powers, by which time the construction of the southern end of HS2 will be nearing completion (2024 - 2026 are down for 'testing' in HS2 plans for Phase 1).
Reality is delaying Phase 1 of HS2 does nothing to speed up phase 2 or NPR, in fact it would probably totally destroy the business case for both as the infrastructure would be far less utilised and deliver far lower benefits.
Finally, I always take note that it is southern politicians, southern media commentators etc. that are calling for HS2 to be changed, for the southern end to be delayed etc.
You will find the mayors, councils, business leaders, media commentators from the north almost unanimously calling for HS2 and NPR to all be built in full and a soon as possible, but like usual those voices are being drowned out.0 -
This thread was insufficiently obsequious to BoZo during the leadership race and has been ejected from cabinet...0
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Another thread
sacked
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I am pleased that so many of the bland boring technocrats that May fill her cabinet with are gone. For me it is a strong start and the speed that Boris has acted with is quite impressive. I am disappointed that he was unable to accommodate Hunt and I am not clear what role Gove will actually play. Hopefully he won’t be given the job of thinking up new ideas. It’s what he does best.0
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99%?AndyJS said:
The good news is an election is 99% certain to happen within about 8 months at the most.justin124 said:Tonight I suspect many of our countrymen will feel much empathy for how most US citizens felt in November 2016 when the results became clear - and even with the many decent citizens of Germany on 30th January 1933.
Would you bet on that at those odds?0 -
This tweetstorm is amazing:
https://twitter.com/mariusostrowski/status/11536242584819261450 -
I suggest you go back and re-read what I said, as you've just created a strawman.NickPalmer said:
Not here, with a bit of luck. We are going through a fairly peaceful phase in our discussions - I've known PB to be much angrier.Big_G_NorthWales said:
However, the die is cast and the next three months is going to be extraordinarily bad tempered, sadly
Just to clear something up in that context - I may have missed it, but did Josias Jessop document what he said about my having attacked Leon Brittan when he was ill? I have zero recollection of ever doing so, and can't remember ever having had any view of him, good or bad.0 -
Young people in UK abandon TV news 'almost entirely'
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/jul/24/young-people-uk-abandon-tv-news-almost-entirely-ofcom0 -
They've shown what they're ok with: race-baiting, lies, potato famines, Trump/Bannon, Putin, corruption, security leaks, undermining the independence of the judiciary and the civil service, etc.AlastairMeeks said:
My best guess is that he is now aiming for prorogation. Sooner or later Leavers are each going to have to decide whether they’re ok with the suspension of democracy.
This next step is nothing.
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