politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters pile on to a 2019 general election in reaction to Johnson’s cabinet
The view of those ready to risk their cash betting on politics is that Johnson’s cabinet appointments suggest that the new PM is aiming for an early general election perhaps this year. GE2019 is now almost an evens chance on the Betfair exchange.
Serious question. If, and it's a big if (obviously) moderate Tories wanted to try and breakaway from the existing party, how many could potentially take their local party (and membership?) with them? For the sake of argument, let's say Wandsworth decided that they had enough, theoretically could they do it?
As the self proclaimed doyen of the pbTories, I’m staying and pledge to be as unrelentingly and unswervingly loyal to this government as most of its leading members were to its predecessor.
First, having been a member of a political party for nearly 40 years, I fully understand Richard N's emotional struggle and turmoil at cutting himself away from something which has ben part of his life. I've walked the line myself on two or three occasions but never crossed it. I respect Richard N as a conservative and while I don't always agree with him, I have always known he puts the welfare of the citizens of the country at the highest level. We don't I think differ much on ends but we do differ on means.
Second, sometimes when you are a leader of men and women you have to make a tough call - do you have around you people who support you, people you can trust or do you surround yourself with the best people for the job who may not like you but you know are the people you need in that role. Neither Churchill in 1940 nor Thatcher in 1975 (as two examples) inherited teams which were full of allies and supporters. The art is to trust the people best able to do the job to do the job - that's what counts not whether they cheer you to the rafters every time you say something.
You mean, other than the fact that we can't legally agree any trade deals, and other countries don't want to commit because their negotiating position improves with every passing day?
As the self proclaimed doyen of the pbTories, I’m staying and pledge to be as unrelentingly and unswervingly loyal to this government as most of its leading members were to its predecessor.
Blimey, if Johnson has even lost you...
But at least I presume he still has the Ullapool-Inverness ferry seadog.
As the self proclaimed doyen of the pbTories, I’m staying and pledge to be as unrelentingly and unswervingly loyal to this government as most of its leading members were to its predecessor.
Well if you’re staying then I have to as well.
I mean what else will we call our regular lunches for PB Tories.
As the self proclaimed doyen of the pbTories, I’m staying and pledge to be as unrelentingly and unswervingly loyal to this government as most of its leading members were to its predecessor.
A government of democratically elected Tory MPs. It's making me cry with laughter reading all the bleating about what a bunch of useless wankers have risen to the top of the Tory party. This is your party, Tories. Your party selected them as candidates, your party made them what they have become. Suck it up, the rest of us have to.
As the self proclaimed doyen of the pbTories, I’m staying and pledge to be as unrelentingly and unswervingly loyal to this government as most of its leading members were to its predecessor.
Well if you’re staying then I have to as well.
I mean what else will we call our regular lunches for PB Tories.
It does rather seem as though Johnson doesn't realise what throwing a dozen and a half talented and respected ministers onto the back benches is likely to do to his ability to erm... govern. Maybe he's trying to deliberately provoke an election without having to call one himself? In the age of stupid populists I've stopped assuming tactics as the default and assume any move that seems dumb in the abstract is just as dumb in the detail.
I have to say I think that Johnson has been politically very smart indeed. This Cabinet all but guarantees a big swing from BXP to the Tories. How can Farage not endorse it? With a split opposition he has to be a huge favourite to win the next election. The only spanner in the works is that what Johnson has done is so extreme that it may galvanise non-Tories to be very careful with their votes. I can see a scenario where Labour keeps most of its English seats, while the LDs pick up quite a few in the SE and SW, as well as some in Scotland. I am more confident that the LDs will do well than Labour will, but it could happen.
In fairness, while I defer to nobody in my loathing of Johnson and my contempt for his lack of integrity -
- any organisation even tangentially associated with Labour accusing someone else of lying is a bit like Mao Zedong accusing somebody else of running a misguided agricultural policy.
Yes it looks like the plan is to pitch a rancid brand of cheap softhead populism and hope that the British people succumb in a 'crisis' election.
Might work. Because to paraphrase BoJo - if you bet against the delusion of the British people that they are in some way special you will probably lose your shirt.
This is definitely a Cabinet put together for an election.
Give away budget coming up...
Won't pass. Not got the votes now. So will be symbolic only.
Yes, and Jez has just called for an election, so Labour will be whipped to back one of Boris goes for it. Whatever one thinks of Bozza, he's a good campaigner unlike Theresa.
Yes it looks like the plan is to pitch a rancid brand of cheap softhead populism and hope that the British people succumb in a 'crisis' election.
Might work. Because to paraphrase BoJo - if you bet against the delusion of the British people that they are in some way special you will probably lose your shirt.
It nearly did in 2017.
Johnson is as much Corbyn's creation as he is Farage's.
Good strong new Cabinet from Boris. A more mixed top team with 3 Remainers replaced by Javid as Chancellor, a Remainer but first Asian Chancellor and Raab as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary, both Leavers and Patel first female and first Asian Home Secretary
Promotions too for women like Villiers and Truss so far
Yes it looks like the plan is to pitch a rancid brand of cheap softhead populism and hope that the British people succumb in a 'crisis' election.
Might work. Because to paraphrase BoJo - if you bet against the delusion of the British people that they are in some way special you will probably lose your shirt.
Sadly all true. I expect bring back hanging for police killers to be a central feature of the campaign.
As the self proclaimed doyen of the pbTories, I’m staying and pledge to be as unrelentingly and unswervingly loyal to this government as most of its leading members were to its predecessor.
Blimey, if Johnson has even lost you...
But at least I presume he still has the Ullapool-Inverness ferry seadog.
Who knows...he may yet reach an agreement with the EU though that looks highly improbable. I am simply whistling amiably from the sidelines and biding my time. And our new Foreign Secretary is my MP in a constituency that voted 60% Remain and which the LibDems are now fiercely targeting......he currently has a 20k majority that on paper should be unassailable. Who knows indeed?
Good strong new Cabinet from Boris. A more mixed top team with 3 Remainers replaced by Javid as Chancellor, a Remainer but first Asian Chancellor and Raab as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary, both Leavers and Patel first female and first Asian Home Secretary
Promotions too for women like Villiers and Truss so far
I must admit I did laugh today when watching Boris Johnson going to the Palace. I wonder if the Queen has a sense of humour given Johnsons racial comments in his newspaper columns of the past. To meet the new PM as he arrived at the palace a smiling ethnic minority member of staff ushered Johnson in to be given permission by the Queen to become PM. I thought of Johnsons smiling pickaninny and watermelon smile comments...
Yes it looks like the plan is to pitch a rancid brand of cheap softhead populism and hope that the British people succumb in a 'crisis' election.
Might work. Because to paraphrase BoJo - if you bet against the delusion of the British people that they are in some way special you will probably lose your shirt.
Sadly all true. I expect bring back hanging for police killers to be a central feature of the campaign.
Hopefully drawing and quartering for traitor remainers as well.
Can the hard left entitled remoaners such as cyclefree stop whining and recognise what is good for Britain! I am surprised roger and Tyson arent on too.
Good news HYUFD and I are here to represent voice of reason
The ones who took away their grandkids freedom of movement will also now be complicit in removing their human rights when the nutjob cabinet dupes the plebs into waving away the ECHR under the guise of getting rid of those nasty terrorists .
A cabinet crafted out of finest English oak, from ear to ear.
If only their bark was worse than their bite...
I am seriously regretting voting Tory in 2017.
How does one oppose them? My constituency is already Labour. I can’t support Corbyn anyway.
I really fear that rights we have eg for equality will be taken away when you have people like Patel as HS and Cummings behind the scenes
By voting for the person who most closely matches your own views. That may be not very closely at all but everything is relative and it has to be someone.
Good strong new Cabinet from Boris. A more mixed top team with 3 Remainers replaced by Javid as Chancellor, a Remainer but first Asian Chancellor and Raab as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary, both Leavers and Patel first female and first Asian Home Secretary
Promotions too for women like Villiers and Truss so far
Good strong new Cabinet from Boris. A more mixed top team with 3 Remainers replaced by Javid as Chancellor, a Remainer but first Asian Chancellor and Raab as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary, both Leavers and Patel first female and first Asian Home Secretary
Promotions too for women like Villiers and Truss so far
Good strong new Cabinet from Boris. A more mixed top team with 3 Remainers replaced by Javid as Chancellor, a Remainer but first Asian Chancellor and Raab as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary, both Leavers and Patel first female and first Asian Home Secretary
Promotions too for women like Villiers and Truss so far
We are all impressed by the way you are keeping up appearances. Don't worry. You are among friends here. If you want to have a little cry that is fine.
The majority would still be three in the event of a LibDem win next week - albeit because Labour supplies two Deputy Speakers with the Tories providing just one.
A cabinet crafted out of finest English oak, from ear to ear.
If only their bark was worse than their bite...
I am seriously regretting voting Tory in 2017.
How does one oppose them? My constituency is already Labour. I can’t support Corbyn anyway.
I really fear that rights we have eg for equality will be taken away when you have people like Patel as HS and Cummings behind the scenes
By voting for the person who most closely matches your own views. That may be not very closely at all but everything is relative and it has to be someone.
Agreed. In the end, tactical voting works in a very limited number of constituencies. Registering an opinion remains important, nonetheless.
He has just made 17+ enemies who will make his life hell, with no majority in parliament.
I actually wonder if Boris is a deluded fantasist? He is gambling everything on winning and getting his way but what will be the cost if these poor decisions end in disaster? You do not run a successful country by taking risks with such unpalatable downsides. It is illogical.
Good strong new Cabinet from Boris. A more mixed top team with 3 Remainers replaced by Javid as Chancellor, a Remainer but first Asian Chancellor and Raab as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary, both Leavers and Patel first female and first Asian Home Secretary
Promotions too for women like Villiers and Truss so far
Hilariously unaware... Your man has terrified your party an infuriated the rest of us... The only questions now are how quickly and how badly does this fiasco end?
Comments
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1154105131992014848
Or how about a government of all the Butts?
THey have one goal...
I'm left with two thoughts.
First, having been a member of a political party for nearly 40 years, I fully understand Richard N's emotional struggle and turmoil at cutting himself away from something which has ben part of his life. I've walked the line myself on two or three occasions but never crossed it. I respect Richard N as a conservative and while I don't always agree with him, I have always known he puts the welfare of the citizens of the country at the highest level. We don't I think differ much on ends but we do differ on means.
Second, sometimes when you are a leader of men and women you have to make a tough call - do you have around you people who support you, people you can trust or do you surround yourself with the best people for the job who may not like you but you know are the people you need in that role. Neither Churchill in 1940 nor Thatcher in 1975 (as two examples) inherited teams which were full of allies and supporters. The art is to trust the people best able to do the job to do the job - that's what counts not whether they cheer you to the rafters every time you say something.
But at least I presume he still has the Ullapool-Inverness ferry seadog.
I mean what else will we call our regular lunches for PB Tories.
It's making me cry with laughter reading all the bleating about what a bunch of useless wankers have risen to the top of the Tory party.
This is your party, Tories. Your party selected them as candidates, your party made them what they have become. Suck it up, the rest of us have to.
And instead we have Corbyn’s Labour.
He never wanted the job, he’s about to become a lone parent and wants to put the kids first.
- any organisation even tangentially associated with Labour accusing someone else of lying is a bit like Mao Zedong accusing somebody else of running a misguided agricultural policy.
Still, surely Johnson combined with Jezza will allow moderate centre Britain to unite now and get rid of both these parties?
What a moment. I await Blair's next video.
Might work. Because to paraphrase BoJo - if you bet against the delusion of the British people that they are in some way special you will probably lose your shirt.
I am seriously regretting voting Tory in 2017.
Johnson is as much Corbyn's creation as he is Farage's.
Promotions too for women like Villiers and Truss so far
https://twitter.com/davidherdson/status/1154040957047717888?s=21
100% proof of how dire the situation is.
I really fear that rights we have eg for equality will be taken away when you have people like Patel as HS and Cummings behind the scenes
Boris blew it in 6 hours.
Good news HYUFD and I are here to represent voice of reason
#priti
Heaven help us.
There will be no attempt at negotiations to get a deal and an orderly withdrawal. It’s a FU to Europe and to business and decency and integrity.
The ones who took away their grandkids freedom of movement will also now be complicit in removing their human rights when the nutjob cabinet dupes the plebs into waving away the ECHR under the guise of getting rid of those nasty terrorists .
Boris terrifies us we're worried shitless, was voting leave a good idea ?!??!
BUT Corbyn over my dead body
In the end, tactical voting works in a very limited number of constituencies. Registering an opinion remains important, nonetheless.
I am angry and upset, but I fear that worse is yet to come.
I actually wonder if Boris is a deluded fantasist? He is gambling everything on winning and getting his way but what will be the cost if these poor decisions end in disaster? You do not run a successful country by taking risks with such unpalatable downsides. It is illogical.
Have been saying for months there would be a general election in October.