Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters pile on to a 2019 general election in reaction to John

1234689

Comments

  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,993

    Where was it that I saw the line: "Not so much a Government of all the talents as a Cabinet of half the wits"?

    That was Alastair's excellent quip in his recent "Year of Three PMs" header.
    Ah, that was it. I thought it was somewhere on PB.
    Glad I didn't claim it as original :)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270




    I disagree with her on the death penalty, but I've not heard anything xenophobic from her like Theresa "Go Home" May.

    I agree entirely with your assessment of May. She was an awful woman and unfit to run a whelk stall.

    But the appointment of Patel does genuinely worry me. Her instincts seem to be just as statist and authoritarian as May's with the added concern that she has advocated a return of the death penalty.

    I judged May on her actions so would be willing to do the same for Patel but I have to confess to a lot of concern. Certainly I can't see her pushing the sort of soft libertarian agenda you and I would want.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    OnboardG1 said:

    alex. said:


    Yes. Those left redfaced and angry at the idea we might actually cut our cords with the EU three years after we voted to do so.

    Let them rant and rave from the backbenches and if they VONC their own party then lets have an election without them as candidates anymore. They have no right to veto what we voted to do years ago.

    Eh, I don't think it's really about that. Many of them (and, ahem, you, as I recall) thought that May would successfully take us out of the EU. They weren't happy but they also weren't resigning their membership and engaging in performative online anguish like we're seeing now.

    In my opinion, it's because they voted Tory (or at least found the Tories acceptable) not because of their actual underlying value of protecting and reenforcing existing hierarchies of wealth and power, but because of their sales pitch of being a steady hand on the tiller. The values haven't changed, but the sales pitch has, so from their point of view everything has suddenly, inexplicably, gone to Hell in a handbasket.
    I oppposed May from the offset. My views on May is like @Richard_Nabavi on Boris. I despised May before she was elected and cancelled my membership after she was. She is a nasty, authoritarian, xenophobic piece of work that actually used "libertarian" as an insult in one speech!

    Good riddance to her! I can't stand the woman and no I never backed her. I was a big fan of Cameron, voted for him in the membership election and loved going to Party Conference when he was in charge but her speech to Conference was the most vile and xenophobic nasty rant I have ever had the mispleasure to sit in. Felt like I'd somehow been transported to a BNP Conference while she was speaking.

    I did cancel my membership rather than stay in her party. I was a member throughout all of Cameron's term [and had joined not long before in order to get a vote in that election to vote for a liberal Conservative] but I quit after she won.

    So no, I can't stand the woman and am not surprised she failed. I look forward to a more positive, libertarian Conservative Party now that she is gone.
    But just to be clear. You're a big fan of Priti Patel?
    I disagree with her on the death penalty, but I've not heard anything xenophobic from her like Theresa "Go Home" May.
    For all my disagreements with your Brexit position, I think you're dead right on that. I don't think Patel is Xenophobic, certainly not in the way May was.
    Yeah. Threatening the Irish with shortages. Good neighbourliness all the way.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    Ireland with a 122 run lead in a low scoring test are worth a small bet at 7-2 I think.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    GIN1138 said:

    Have we had transport yet?

    Shapps
    Is he HS2 or not?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    I take no pleasure in the present situation I would love nothing better than be able to rejoin Labour under a centre left leader and I would love to see them heading towards a GE victory. However I cannot vote for a Labour Party led by Corbyn and the 4 Ms. I doubt I am alone and the consequence is likely to be a Johnson majority on about 35% of the vote.
    That is fair enough , but you have admitted that you did not vote Labour in 2017 when 41% did. On that basis, your views are not new.!
    But as I have said before I didn't vote at all in 2017 but I know a lot of people who did vote Labour then but won't do again. I don't think we are going to have to wait long before finding out who is right.

    I have a real dilemma as I live in in Lab/Con marginal and I like our MP but can't vote for him without the Corbynistas claiming it as vote for Corbyn. Be Lib Dem for me next time and I hope that another defeat will bring Labour to its senses.
    I'd gently encourage you to rethink that if feel you can. I get you're not a big fan of the Corbyn faction, but it feels like when people in the US said "I'm not going to vote for Hillary, I'm voting for Stein instead" and they got Trump. There are levels of bad, and it's not encouraging from a personal point of view to have to pick one. But choosing not to vote Lab and support your MP might land you with a terrible MP you have, one less MP you respect in Labour and a Trumpian political faction in Number Ten.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    He referred to the backstop as the anti-democratic backstop (despite having voted for it) in his speech. Unless he can get something on that, he surely cannot even think of bringing even an edited WA back. And given most solutions to the backstop seem to involve creative wording that won't fool the hard core of the ERG, I don't see how that works - even if the EU should fudge it a bit more, to see it through, they've chosen that issue to be the one to die on as our own Brexiteers have.

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Jacob Rees Mogg and his Hedge Fund have bet against Britain....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    He seems to think he can stuff his cabinet with Brexiteers, and at the same time marginalise both the ERG and Farage. It could be Dominic Cummings' ego that ultimately does for Brexit.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    As a true blue Tory I am borderline shocked by this cabinet. Very depressing.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    Can anyone logically explain why Michael Gove has accepted a demotion from the Cabinet?

    He is, genuinely it seems, too useful a colleague to not have in government in some capacity, but is not good with his scheming and personal relationships. Last time there was a switch he was out on his ear entirely, and it took time to work his way back in and be useful. By accepting a lesser position he can at least be of some use, and may well work his way back up to full Cabinet again in a shorter space of time, whilst still being punished for his past transgressions against the Bozziah.
    I am sorry he was not retained at DEFRA. He has been doing a lot of good there and I fear Villers will not be inclined to continue his work.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401




    I disagree with her on the death penalty, but I've not heard anything xenophobic from her like Theresa "Go Home" May.

    I agree entirely with your assessment of May. She was an awful woman and unfit to run a whelk stall.

    But the appointment of Patel does genuinely worry me. Her instincts seem to be just as statist and authoritarian as May's with the added concern that she has advocated a return of the death penalty.

    I judged May on her actions so would be willing to do the same for Patel but I have to confess to a lot of concern. Certainly I can't see her pushing the sort of soft libertarian agenda you and I would want.
    I can see the Death Penalty bit being a major policy player in GE 2019/20.

  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    DougSeal said:

    OnboardG1 said:



    I disagree with her on the death penalty, but I've not heard anything xenophobic from her like Theresa "Go Home" May.

    For all my disagreements with your Brexit position, I think you're dead right on that. I don't think Patel is Xenophobic, certainly not in the way May was.
    Yeah. Threatening the Irish with shortages. Good neighbourliness all the way.
    I said I didn't think she's Xenophobic, not that she wasn't clueless, feckless and tactless.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    Either that or they will have to give up the cars and the red boxes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    As a true blue Tory I am borderline shocked by this cabinet. Very depressing.

    Not true blue enough for some, no doubt. Did you remember to vote BXP in the Euros? No surer sign of a true blue Tory.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Well, well ,well who expected this. Every wet drip centrist, managerial waste of space has been asked to leave. People that actually hold political beliefs have replaced them.

    The age of grey, boring managerial politics is over for the next 3 months at least and that is a good thing.

    "Good morning, Mr Smith. Beppo the Clown here will be performing your operation later today. We've decided that the age of grey, boring cardiac surgery is over."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    There is no way this cabinet is passing the WA. The plan is No Deal or bust.

    The absence of any attempt at building support is interesting. It sets quite a precedent for Corbyn.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Dear me. I explained this a while back. I do not have a vote in Trudy Harrison’s constituency but my husband and daughter do. Daughter will not vote Tory under any circumstances and husband now won’t. He did before. So that’s one vote lost. I am in the process of moving so, depending on when the election is held, I will have a vote. It will not be for the Tories.

    I know and like Trudy. But her majority is ca. 2000. A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard. Whatever her good local work she cannot count on that saving her.

    Does this Cabinet look like one which gives a damn about the people of West Cumbria? Do they even know where it is or what life is like there? I doubt it.

    Yes, I remember your explanation well. You changed your tune when I pointed out what the electoral law was about second home owners voting (a major problem in parts of Wales).

    I had suggested you were a second home owner, and you said you indignantly were not. You owned a house in Hampstead and your husband owned a house in Copeland !!!!

    And you pontificate on here about the lack of straightforwardness of our political masters !!!!!!

    You may or may not be right that "A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard". You may or may not be right that this Cabinet "does not give a damn about Cumbria".

    But, I would rather hear that from the people of Cumbria. Let them speak for themselves. They don't need help from London, or even from very recently arrived imports to Cumbria.
    Yeah! Send her back.
    The point is Cyclefree hasn't left Hampstead yet.

    So, she can't really speak for Cumbria.
    How do all those historians of ancient Rome manage to write their books?
    "And headphoned soldiers standing up in turrets.
    How long were they approaching down my roads
    As if they owned them?”

    But, you didn't own "my roads", General Topping.

    Cyclefree can speak for herself. And she should let Cumbrians speak for themselves.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    McVey is Housing Sec
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Bye Bye David Mundell.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    We're Moggsterin the House.

    Night all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    Well, well ,well who expected this. Every wet drip centrist, managerial waste of space has been asked to leave. People that actually hold political beliefs have replaced them.

    The age of grey, boring managerial politics is over for the next 3 months at least and that is a good thing.

    You actually think all of those who have left are just wet drip centrists? That will come a surprise to many, not least many of those who despise some of those who have left because they are not wet or drippy or centrist enough.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270




    I disagree with her on the death penalty, but I've not heard anything xenophobic from her like Theresa "Go Home" May.

    I agree entirely with your assessment of May. She was an awful woman and unfit to run a whelk stall.

    But the appointment of Patel does genuinely worry me. Her instincts seem to be just as statist and authoritarian as May's with the added concern that she has advocated a return of the death penalty.

    I judged May on her actions so would be willing to do the same for Patel but I have to confess to a lot of concern. Certainly I can't see her pushing the sort of soft libertarian agenda you and I would want.
    I can see the Death Penalty bit being a major policy player in GE 2019/20.

    I think (hope) she would struggle to make any headway with it but I view it more as an indication of her general attitude to social and liberal policies.

    It is perfectly possible to be a Brexiteer and a Libertarian/socially liberal/small statist. I don't believe it is possible to be in favour of the death penalty and still retain those broader values/views.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749

    GIN1138 said:

    Have we had transport yet?

    Shapps
    Is he HS2 or not?
    I do not know to be honest
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Yorkcity said:

    I see Jo Swinson had to correct her wrongful claim that Corbyn went on holiday for two weeks during the eu referendum.
    Surely she could have got her facts right before making the allegation.

    To be honest he might as well have been on holiday for all the effort he put into the Remain campaign..
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    McVey is Housing Sec

    *Minister* not SoS.. though will attend cabinet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Scott_P said:
    Now that's to troll Bercow, I expect.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    He referred to the backstop as the anti-democratic backstop (despite having voted for it) in his speech. Unless he can get something on that, he surely cannot even think of bringing even an edited WA back.
    Perhaps we can just settle for "he surely cannot even think."
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    kle4 said:

    Well, well ,well who expected this. Every wet drip centrist, managerial waste of space has been asked to leave. People that actually hold political beliefs have replaced them.

    The age of grey, boring managerial politics is over for the next 3 months at least and that is a good thing.

    You actually think all of those who have left are just wet drip centrists? That will come a surprise to many, not least many of those who despise some of those who have left because they are not wet or drippy or centrist enough.
    Name some names then of who are not?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921




    I disagree with her on the death penalty, but I've not heard anything xenophobic from her like Theresa "Go Home" May.

    I agree entirely with your assessment of May. She was an awful woman and unfit to run a whelk stall.

    But the appointment of Patel does genuinely worry me. Her instincts seem to be just as statist and authoritarian as May's with the added concern that she has advocated a return of the death penalty.

    I judged May on her actions so would be willing to do the same for Patel but I have to confess to a lot of concern. Certainly I can't see her pushing the sort of soft libertarian agenda you and I would want.
    +1
  • 5/2 Boris to be gone by years end as PM .Absolutely no hope of the EU making changes to backstop and zero chance of Boris Crashing out in October .The Book stops here was a stupit epitath to write on your first few minutes in the job .
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Scott_P said:
    "Victory" for Mail as Johnson announces intention to deal with problem that everyone agrees is a problem that needs solving.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    There is no way this cabinet is passing the WA. The plan is No Deal or bust.

    The absence of any attempt at building support is interesting. It sets quite a precedent for Corbyn.
    Or vice versa (following the JC attitude of “the party loves me, so FIFO”)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    JRM = Leader of da House
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    edited July 2019
    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:
    "Victory" for Mail as Johnson announces intention to deal with problem that everyone agrees is a problem that needs solving.
    Quite. I know papers love to self aggrandize, and everyone loves broad statements of intent more than grubby reality of getting things done, but tone it down a notch please, Daily Mail. We all want the problem solved, but we can all be sure plenty of proposed solutions will be pilloried.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Now that's to troll Bercow, I expect.
    In shock news, I think we're going to discover that JRM is not quite the 'expert' on Parliamentary procedure that he thinks he is. Albeit maybe his only task is to avoid any business on the floor of the House full stop.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    OnboardG1 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    I take no pleasure in the present situation I would love nothing better than be able to rejoin Labour under a centre left leader and I would love to see them heading towards a GE victory. However I cannot vote for a Labour Party led by Corbyn and the 4 Ms. I doubt I am alone and the consequence is likely to be a Johnson majority on about 35% of the vote.
    That is fair enough , but you have admitted that you did not vote Labour in 2017 when 41% did. On that basis, your views are not new.!
    But as I have said before I didn't vote at all in 2017 but I know a lot of people who did vote Labour then but won't do again. I don't think we are going to have to wait long before finding out who is right.

    I have a real dilemma as I live in in Lab/Con marginal and I like our MP but can't vote for him without the Corbynistas claiming it as vote for Corbyn. Be Lib Dem for me next time and I hope that another defeat will bring Labour to its senses.
    I'd gently encourage you to rethink that if feel you can. I get you're not a big fan of the Corbyn faction, but it feels like when people in the US said "I'm not going to vote for Hillary, I'm voting for Stein instead" and they got Trump. There are levels of bad, and it's not encouraging from a personal point of view to have to pick one. But choosing not to vote Lab and support your MP might land you with a terrible MP you have, one less MP you respect in Labour and a Trumpian political faction in Number Ten.
    Labour are currently third in some polls behind the Lib Dems. At what point does a seat that was a Labour/Tory marginal in 2017 become one where the anti-Tory vote is a vote for the Lib Dems?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270

    kle4 said:

    Well, well ,well who expected this. Every wet drip centrist, managerial waste of space has been asked to leave. People that actually hold political beliefs have replaced them.

    The age of grey, boring managerial politics is over for the next 3 months at least and that is a good thing.

    You actually think all of those who have left are just wet drip centrists? That will come a surprise to many, not least many of those who despise some of those who have left because they are not wet or drippy or centrist enough.
    Name some names then of who are not?
    Penny Mordaunt
    Liam Fox (with the proviso that he was useless)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree said:



    Dear me. I explained this a while back. I do not have a vote in Trudy Harrison’s constituency but my husband and daughter do. Daughter will not vote Tory under any circumstances and husband now won’t. He did before. So that’s one vote lost. I am in the process of moving so, depending on when the election is held, I will have a vote. It will not be for the Tories.

    I know and like Trudy. But her majority is ca. 2000. A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard. Whatever her good local work she cannot count on that saving her.

    Does this Cabinet look like one which gives a damn about the people of West Cumbria? Do they even know where it is or what life is like there? I doubt it.

    Yes, I remember your explanation well. You changed your tune when I pointed out what the electoral law was about second home owners voting (a major problem in parts of Wales).

    I had suggested you were a second home owner, and you said you indignantly were not. You owned a house in Hampstead and your husband owned a house in Copeland !!!!

    And you pontificate on here about the lack of straightforwardness of our political masters !!!!!!

    You may or may not be right that "A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard". You may or may not be right that this Cabinet "does not give a damn about Cumbria".

    But, I would rather hear that from the people of Cumbria. Let them speak for themselves. They don't need help from London, or even from very recently arrived imports to Cumbria.
    I have never changed my tune or been anything other than utterly straightforward about my personal life, to the extent that it is yours or anyone else’s business.

    Indeed, I rather resent the suggestion you appear to have made that I have either lied about what I own or that I have tried to break electoral law. If that is not what you have suggested I am sure you will clear that up. If it is then you might like to make an apology.

    I have been spending a considerable time in Cumbria for 31 years. I have a large family up there and am entitled as anyone else to report back on what I see and hear. I don’t go there to help but because I love the place and intend living there full-time. Who you to choose to listen to is your own affair. Mind you, you might try taking that chip off your shoulder first.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:
    Fecking hell - that's not a joke is it???

    Oh boy.......
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Dear me. I explained this a while back. I do not have a vote in Trudy Harrison’s constituency but my husband and daughter do. Daughter will not vote Tory under any circumstances and husband now won’t. He did before. So that’s one vote lost. I am in the process of moving so, depending on when the election is held, I will have a vote. It will not be for the Tories.

    I know and like Trudy. But her majority is ca. 2000. A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard. Whatever her good local work she cannot count on that saving her.

    Does this Cabinet look like one which gives a damn about the people of West Cumbria? Do they even know where it is or what life is like there? I doubt it.

    Yes, I remember your explanation well. You changed your tune when I pointed out what the electoral law was about second home owners voting (a major problem in parts of Wales).

    I had suggested you were a second home owner, and you said you indignantly were not. You owned a house in Hampstead and your husband owned a house in Copeland !!!!

    And you pontificate on here about the lack of straightforwardness of our political masters !!!!!!

    You may or may not be right that "A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard". You may or may not be right that this Cabinet "does not give a damn about Cumbria".

    But, I would rather hear that from the people of Cumbria. Let them speak for themselves. They don't need help from London, or even from very recently arrived imports to Cumbria.
    Yeah! Send her back.
    The point is Cyclefree hasn't left Hampstead yet.

    So, she can't really speak for Cumbria.
    How do all those historians of ancient Rome manage to write their books?
    "And headphoned soldiers standing up in turrets.
    How long were they approaching down my roads
    As if they owned them?”

    But, you didn't own "my roads", General Topping.

    Cyclefree can speak for herself. And she should let Cumbrians speak for themselves.
    You're right we didn't own them. Kept them as safe as possible for "you" however.

    Of course she can speak for herself I was discussing the general point. She can understand about an area without having been present until you think she qualifies as a resident.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    There is no way this cabinet is passing the WA. The plan is No Deal or bust.

    The absence of any attempt at building support is interesting. It sets quite a precedent for Corbyn.
    That's definitely the message Boris is intending Brussels to hear with this. It's definitely going to be panic stations there as well.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2019




    I disagree with her on the death penalty, but I've not heard anything xenophobic from her like Theresa "Go Home" May.

    I agree entirely with your assessment of May. She was an awful woman and unfit to run a whelk stall.

    But the appointment of Patel does genuinely worry me. Her instincts seem to be just as statist and authoritarian as May's with the added concern that she has advocated a return of the death penalty.

    I judged May on her actions so would be willing to do the same for Patel but I have to confess to a lot of concern. Certainly I can't see her pushing the sort of soft libertarian agenda you and I would want.
    I can see the Death Penalty bit being a major policy player in GE 2019/20.

    I think (hope) she would struggle to make any headway with it but I view it more as an indication of her general attitude to social and liberal policies.

    It is perfectly possible to be a Brexiteer and a Libertarian/socially liberal/small statist. I don't believe it is possible to be in favour of the death penalty and still retain those broader values/views.
    I've Libertarian/socially liberal/small state and I oppose fundamentally the death penalty on the basis that if someone wrongfully convicted later is found to be innocent you can't undo the death penalty.

    I believe in a very small state which lets people take responsibility for their own lives so long as they don't harm others.

    However I have no philosophical objection to the death penatly if we could be 100% certain the accused was guilty of limited horrific crimes. My objection is purely practical, we can't design a system whereby only the 100% definitely guilty will be executed and because of that we shouldn't have it. It is better to let 1000 guilty men rot in prison than let 1 innocent man be executed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    edited July 2019

    kle4 said:

    Well, well ,well who expected this. Every wet drip centrist, managerial waste of space has been asked to leave. People that actually hold political beliefs have replaced them.

    The age of grey, boring managerial politics is over for the next 3 months at least and that is a good thing.

    You actually think all of those who have left are just wet drip centrists? That will come a surprise to many, not least many of those who despise some of those who have left because they are not wet or drippy or centrist enough.
    Name some names then of who are not?
    Liam Fox for starters.

    Not to say he is necessarily a good Cabinet Minister, but I don't recall him every being regarded as a wet centrist. Voting for the WA doesn't count, the current PM has done that too.

    These labels are just thrown out without meaning much I think. Hunt for instance was apparently asked to stay on in a different post, so if he is a wet centrist drip he was not in fact asked to leave. And if any are later brought back into government I'll bet people won't be complaining they are wet drips then. Suddenly they'll be ok.

    As also noted Mordaunt as well.

    It's just a way of seeking to artificially create tribes within a party. It's how people who have been fervent Brexiters for years are accused of not being true Brexiters by the new orthodoxy. Same as all those entryists in Labour who think MPs of decades experience in Labour are not true Labour, no matter what that person thinks.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fecking hell - that's not a joke is it???

    Oh boy.......
    Leader of House is very distinguished and gives a lot of control but it is not a catapult to being famous amongst the voters.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,657
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:
    JRM is so last year, we barely hear from him anymore.
    The reviews he got for his dreadful book - ‘reads like it was written by a baboon’ (Simon Heffer) - probably bruised his ego and made him feel like an intellectual dwarf. Boris, as with his Trumpian tactics, is following fashions already a year out of date.

  • Remainers and/or the left will of course be howling with rage at the new composition and direction of movement of the government.

    What they fail to realize, often due to filtering their politics through a very noisy social media echo chamber, is that THEY are the ones out of step with normal people.

    Normal people aren't headbanging loon-balls who obsess day and night about subverting the Brexit referendum.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    kle4 said:

    Well, well ,well who expected this. Every wet drip centrist, managerial waste of space has been asked to leave. People that actually hold political beliefs have replaced them.

    The age of grey, boring managerial politics is over for the next 3 months at least and that is a good thing.

    You actually think all of those who have left are just wet drip centrists? That will come a surprise to many, not least many of those who despise some of those who have left because they are not wet or drippy or centrist enough.
    Name some names then of who are not?
    Liam Fox is hardly dripping wet, not Maundart. Hancock, Rudd and Morgan are all wet centrists yet remain.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    There is no way this cabinet is passing the WA. The plan is No Deal or bust.

    The absence of any attempt at building support is interesting. It sets quite a precedent for Corbyn.
    That's definitely the message Boris is intending Brussels to hear with this. It's definitely going to be panic stations there as well.
    Probably makes their job easier. There's no realistic compromise available so why bother trying. So at least they can concentrate on things that will happen.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Dear me. I explained this a while back. I do not have a vote in Trudy Harrison’s constituency but my husband and daughter do. Daughter will not vote Tory under any circumstances and husband now won’t. He did before. So that’s one vote lost. I am in the process of moving so, depending on when the election is held, I will have a vote. It will not be for the Tories.

    I know and like Trudy. But her majority is ca. 2000. A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard. Whatever her good local work she cannot count on that saving her.

    Does this Cabinet look like one which gives a damn about the people of West Cumbria? Do they even know where it is or what life is like there? I doubt it.

    Yes, I remember your explanation well. You changed your tune when I pointed out what the electoral law was about second home owners voting (a major problem in parts of Wales).

    I had suggested you were a second home owner, and you said you indignantly were not. You owned a house in Hampstead and your husband owned a house in Copeland !!!!

    And you pontificate on here about the lack of straightforwardness of our political masters !!!!!!

    You may or may not be right that "A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard". You may or may not be right that this Cabinet "does not give a damn about Cumbria".

    But, I would rather hear that from the people of Cumbria. Let them speak for themselves. They don't need help from London, or even from very recently arrived imports to Cumbria.
    Yeah! Send her back.
    The point is Cyclefree hasn't left Hampstead yet.

    So, she can't really speak for Cumbria.
    How do all those historians of ancient Rome manage to write their books?
    "And headphoned soldiers standing up in turrets.
    How long were they approaching down my roads
    As if they owned them?”

    But, you didn't own "my roads", General Topping.

    Cyclefree can speak for herself. And she should let Cumbrians speak for themselves.
    You're right we didn't own them. Kept them as safe as possible for "you" however.

    Of course she can speak for herself I was discussing the general point. She can understand about an area without having been present until you think she qualifies as a resident.
    I wanted no part of your "safe-keeping", thank you.

    Heaney's poem is about belonging to a place, "our roads".

    You don't belong to a place by buying a second home and bringing in a little money and little dust.

    And you can't speak for a place without belonging.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Scott_P said:
    Why is Boris rewarding a man whose Hedge Fund has "bet against Britain" by moving its investments outside the UK into currencies that will rise against Sterling due to a No Deal Brexit.

    Boris has on his first day committed a failure of judgement IMO as he claims "those who bet against Britain will lose their shirts" at the same time as giving Rees-Mogg a job...
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Remainers and/or the left will of course be howling with rage at the new composition and direction of movement of the government.

    What they fail to realize, often due to filtering their politics through a very noisy social media echo chamber, is that THEY are the ones out of step with normal people.

    Normal people aren't headbanging loon-balls who obsess day and night about subverting the Brexit referendum.

    nOrMal PeoPle

    The classic rallying cry of the people who assume the five people they go to the pub with reflect the totality of the UK body politic.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    kle4 said:

    Well, well ,well who expected this. Every wet drip centrist, managerial waste of space has been asked to leave. People that actually hold political beliefs have replaced them.

    The age of grey, boring managerial politics is over for the next 3 months at least and that is a good thing.

    You actually think all of those who have left are just wet drip centrists? That will come a surprise to many, not least many of those who despise some of those who have left because they are not wet or drippy or centrist enough.
    Name some names then of who are not?
    Penny Mordaunt
    Liam Fox (with the proviso that he was useless)
    Yep, give you those two.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    Can anyone logically explain why Michael Gove has accepted a demotion from the Cabinet?

    He is, genuinely it seems, too useful a colleague to not have in government in some capacity, but is not good with his scheming and personal relationships. Last time there was a switch he was out on his ear entirely, and it took time to work his way back in and be useful. By accepting a lesser position he can at least be of some use, and may well work his way back up to full Cabinet again in a shorter space of time, whilst still being punished for his past transgressions against the Bozziah.
    I am sorry he was not retained at DEFRA. He has been doing a lot of good there and I fear Villers will not be inclined to continue his work.

    If, as reported, he’s taking on cross-govt No Deal prep as part of that, I’d say the influence and potential prestige is pretty strong.

    All will depend whether we get Defra/Justice Gove (seemingly genuinely evidence-led) or Education Gove (IMO too dogmatic chasing his own fond memories of school in the 70s and some pretty outdated gurus).

    Handy human shield for No Detail Bozza, in my view.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2019
    Boris styles himself as a latter-day Churchill, but I'm not entirely convinced that his cabinet choices demonstrate that his study of the great man is very deep:

    In War: Resolution,
    In Defeat: Defiance,
    In Victory: Magnanimity
    In Peace: Good Will.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    There is no way this cabinet is passing the WA. The plan is No Deal or bust.

    The absence of any attempt at building support is interesting. It sets quite a precedent for Corbyn.
    That's definitely the message Boris is intending Brussels to hear with this. It's definitely going to be panic stations there as well.
    Nah. They are not bothered.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, well ,well who expected this. Every wet drip centrist, managerial waste of space has been asked to leave. People that actually hold political beliefs have replaced them.

    The age of grey, boring managerial politics is over for the next 3 months at least and that is a good thing.

    You actually think all of those who have left are just wet drip centrists? That will come a surprise to many, not least many of those who despise some of those who have left because they are not wet or drippy or centrist enough.
    Name some names then of who are not?
    Hancock, Rudd and Morgan are all wet centrists yet remain.
    Indeed. If the label means anything at all those names fit. More proof of over egging the pudding. It's not enough that some useless ones, or internal opponents have been given the boot, no no, it must be a cleansing of all those dastardly other faction. And if that requires rewriting the history and character of those who were in the Cabinet, so be it!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    There is no way this cabinet is passing the WA. The plan is No Deal or bust.

    The absence of any attempt at building support is interesting. It sets quite a precedent for Corbyn.
    That's definitely the message Boris is intending Brussels to hear with this. It's definitely going to be panic stations there as well.
    No one has any real idea but I'm thinking that undesirable as it may be for them once the wheels of no deal are set in motion for and by the EU that is where they will head.

    And to think that people here said that in the UK some things transcended economic arguments.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Boris styles himself as a latter-day Churchill, but I'm not entirely convinced that his cabinet choices demonstrate that his study of the great man is very deep:

    In War: Resolution,
    In Defeat: Defiance,
    In Victory: Magnanimity
    In Peace: Good Will.

    Hmm, surely the war on remainers and Brussels is just starting.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Dear me. I explained this a while back. I do not have a vote in Trudy Harrison’s constituency but my husband and daughter do. Daughter will not vote Tory under any circumstances and husband now won’t. He did before. So that’s one vote lost. I am in the process of moving so, depending on when the election is held, I will have a vote. It will not be for the Tories.

    I know and like Trudy. But her majority is ca. 2000. A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard. Whatever her good local work she cannot count on that saving her.

    Does this Cabinet look like one which gives a damn about the people of West Cumbria? Do they even know where it is or what life is like there? I doubt it.

    Yes, I remember your explanation well. You changed your tune when I pointed out what the electoral law was about second home owners voting (a major problem in parts of Wales).

    I had suggested you were a second home owner, and you said you indignantly were not. You owned a house in Hampstead and your husband owned a house in Copeland !!!!

    And you pontificate on here about the lack of straightforwardness of our political masters !!!!!!

    You may or may not be right that "A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard". You may or may not be right that this Cabinet "does not give a damn about Cumbria".

    But, I would rather hear that from the people of Cumbria. Let them speak for themselves. They don't need help from London, or even from very recently arrived imports to Cumbria.
    Yeah! Send her back.
    The point is Cyclefree hasn't left Hampstead yet.

    So, she can't really speak for Cumbria.
    I can and do speak out of my own experience. And I do have experience of West Cumbria. You do not know what that is and yet you have the arrogance to tell me what I can and cannot say.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Normal people aren't headbanging loon-balls who obsess day and night about subverting the Brexit referendum.

    Normal people aren't headbanging loon-balls who obsess day and night about delivering Brexit at any cost.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Remainer/Liberal/Centrist/One Nation/Cameroon Britain up in arms tonight.

    Boris is betting the farm that we don't coalesce around an alternative to his horrendous administration...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    There is no way this cabinet is passing the WA. The plan is No Deal or bust.

    The absence of any attempt at building support is interesting. It sets quite a precedent for Corbyn.
    That's definitely the message Boris is intending Brussels to hear with this. It's definitely going to be panic stations there as well.
    Nah. They are not bothered.
    That's based on?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503

    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    Can anyone logically explain why Michael Gove has accepted a demotion from the Cabinet?

    Nick P told me it could potentially be an "upgrade" from DEFRA?
    Its a consolation prize! A non job. I always wonder if it is an 'In' joke with PMs to appoint someone to that position.
    It depends what Boris does with it. The position is essentially the PM's fixer - often the person who gets to investigate problems and to act as spokesman to the media. If the PM doesn't use him then it's a demotion, but usually it's a senior role (the last one was Lidington, who was generally seen as Deputy PM).
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Very impressed with the way Jo dealt with the coalition question on Newsnight just now. Surprisingly impressed, even.

    Labour MP floundering.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    There is no way this cabinet is passing the WA. The plan is No Deal or bust.

    The absence of any attempt at building support is interesting. It sets quite a precedent for Corbyn.
    That's definitely the message Boris is intending Brussels to hear with this. It's definitely going to be panic stations there as well.
    No one has any real idea but I'm thinking that undesirable as it may be for them once the wheels of no deal are set in motion for and by the EU that is where they will head.

    And to think that people here said that in the UK some things transcended economic arguments.
    Yes, I'm inclined to agree with that, but time and again we've seen one minute to midnight resolutions from the EU, so I wouldn't rule it out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    edited July 2019

    Remainer/Liberal/Centrist/One Nation/Cameroon Britain up in arms tonight.

    Boris is betting the farm that we don't coalesce around an alternative to his horrendous administration...

    Coalition fans won't be happy, nor will many Remainers but the Tory base and most Leave voters will be delighted tonight we have the most rightwing Government since Thatcher and an ethnically diverse Cabinet too to reflect 21st century Britain
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    There is no way this cabinet is passing the WA. The plan is No Deal or bust.

    The absence of any attempt at building support is interesting. It sets quite a precedent for Corbyn.
    That's definitely the message Boris is intending Brussels to hear with this. It's definitely going to be panic stations there as well.
    Nah. They are not bothered.
    That's based on?
    Everything they say.

    https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1152243796354228226?s=19
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Remainer/Liberal/Centrist/One Nation/Cameroon Britain up in arms tonight.

    Boris is betting the farm that we don't coalesce around an alternative to his horrendous administration...

    It won't though.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Has JRM been on the Grecian 2000? He's looking somewhat...lustrous.

    https://twitter.com/AamerAnwar/status/1154147732162043904
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    Can anyone logically explain why Michael Gove has accepted a demotion from the Cabinet?

    Nick P told me it could potentially be an "upgrade" from DEFRA?
    Its a consolation prize! A non job. I always wonder if it is an 'In' joke with PMs to appoint someone to that position.
    It depends what Boris does with it. The position is essentially the PM's fixer - often the person who gets to investigate problems and to act as spokesman to the media. If the PM doesn't use him then it's a demotion, but usually it's a senior role (the last one was Lidington, who was generally seen as Deputy PM).
    It's outside the Cabinet and therefore not on a Cabinet pay grade? Therefore it's a demotion.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Dear me. I explained this a while back. I do not have a vote in Trudy Harrison’s constituency but my husband and daughter do. Daughter will not vote Tory under any circumstances and husband now won’t. He did before. So that’s one vote lost. I am in the process of moving so, depending on when the election is held, I will have a vote. It will not be for the Tories.

    I know and like Trudy. But her majority is ca. 2000. A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard. Whatever her good local work she cannot count on that saving her.

    Does this Cabinet look like one which gives a damn about the people of West Cumbria? Do they even know where it is or what life is like there? I doubt it.

    Yes, I remember your explanation well. You changed your tune when I pointed out what the electoral law was about second home owners voting (a major problem in parts of Wales).

    I had suggested you were a second home owner, and you said you indignantly were not. You owned a house in Hampstead and your husband owned a house in Copeland !!!!

    And you pontificate on here about the lack of straightforwardness of our political masters !!!!!!

    You may or may not be right that "A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard". You may or may not be right that this Cabinet "does not give a damn about Cumbria".

    But, I would rather hear that from the people of Cumbria. Let them speak for themselves. They don't need help from London, or even from very recently arrived imports to Cumbria.
    I have never changed my tune or been anything other than utterly straightforward about my personal life, to the extent that it is yours or anyone else’s business.

    Indeed, I rather resent the suggestion you appear to have made that I have either lied about what I own or that I have tried to break electoral law. If that is not what you have suggested I am sure you will clear that up. If it is then you might like to make an apology.

    I have been spending a considerable time in Cumbria for 31 years. I have a large family up there and am entitled as anyone else to report back on what I see and hear. I don’t go there to help but because I love the place and intend living there full-time. Who you to choose to listen to is your own affair. Mind you, you might try taking that chip off your shoulder first.
    I think it is ridiculous to claim that you are not a second home owner on the grounds that you own one home and your husband owns one home.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited July 2019
    Scott_P said:
    And so begins the era of the Moggster! :D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    @Philip_Thompson


    This is a cabinet that looks back at a dead empire, fearful of the world, contemptuous of our near neighbours, with hate in its heart for the world. Brexit is the clinging to a past hoping for solace from former colonies that care nothing for us.

    This cabinet will break up the U.K. England will be surrounded on all sides by the EU, Scotland to the North, Ireland (maybe Wales) to the West, the Mainland of our continent to the South and East. We will have to pass through the EU to get ourselves and our goods anywhere by land or air. We cannot cut ourselves off from our closest relations for ever. We are embedded with them. This is a family tiff that will pass and we will come back with our tails between our legs a much smaller nation. You’ve lost - you just don’t realise it yet.

    Complete and utter codswallop.

    Give me one good reason the UK can't be a successful, modern, independent global nation without being a part of the EU . . . yet Canada doesn't need to be part of the USA, NZ doesn't need to be a part of Australia, Sri Lanka doesn't need to be part of India and Japan doesn't need to be a part of China?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    There is no way tsets quite a precedent for Corbyn.
    That's definitely the message Boris is intending Brussels to hear with this. It's definitely going to be panic stations there as well.
    Nah. They are not bothered.
    That's based on?
    Their actions to date. The extension really was the period where if panic was going to force major changes to things it would have happened. Over hear it did not lead to various Labour MPs who pretended to be thinking about voting for the WA to do so, though it did lead to a great many Tory MPs (like Boris) to do so, albeit not enough. On the EU side it did at least panic them enough to offer an extension even though we had given no indication of how we would resolve matters, as they had wanted, but it did not panic them enough to actually bend on something substantive enough that May could sell it.

    Boris is probably a better seller than May, but the EU have put an awful lot on the line to insist the major stuff will not be touched again. They've had time to prepare. Even if, as is surely still the case, that no deal is not ideal for either of us, their own stubborness suggests they;d rather take the hit than appear to 'lose' on the substantive points.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    DougSeal said:

    @Philip_Thompson


    This is a cabinet that looks back at a dead empire, fearful of the world, contemptuous of our near neighbours, with hate in its heart for the world. Brexit is the clinging to a past hoping for solace from former colonies that care nothing for us.

    This cabinet will break up the U.K. England will be surrounded on all sides by the EU, Scotland to the North, Ireland (maybe Wales) to the West, the Mainland of our continent to the South and East. We will have to pass through the EU to get ourselves and our goods anywhere by land or air. We cannot cut ourselves off from our closest relations for ever. We are embedded with them. This is a family tiff that will pass and we will come back with our tails between our legs a much smaller nation. You’ve lost - you just don’t realise it yet.

    Complete and utter codswallop.

    Give me one good reason the UK can't be a successful, modern, independent global nation without being a part of the EU . . . yet Canada doesn't need to be part of the USA, NZ doesn't need to be a part of Australia, Sri Lanka doesn't need to be part of India and Japan doesn't need to be a part of China?
    Northern Ireland.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    edited July 2019
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    There is no way this cabinet is passing the WA. The plan is No Deal or bust.

    The absence of any attempt at building support is interesting. It sets quite a precedent for Corbyn.
    That's definitely the message Boris is intending Brussels to hear with this. It's definitely going to be panic stations there as well.
    Nah. They are not bothered.
    That's based on?
    Everything they say.

    https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1152243796354228226?s=19
    Lol. Were you born yesterday?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Anybody understand this market?

    UK - Cabinet Specials - Next Cabinet Minister to leave after Leadsom

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159161455
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    alex. said:

    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    Can anyone logically explain why Michael Gove has accepted a demotion from the Cabinet?

    Nick P told me it could potentially be an "upgrade" from DEFRA?
    Its a consolation prize! A non job. I always wonder if it is an 'In' joke with PMs to appoint someone to that position.
    It depends what Boris does with it. The position is essentially the PM's fixer - often the person who gets to investigate problems and to act as spokesman to the media. If the PM doesn't use him then it's a demotion, but usually it's a senior role (the last one was Lidington, who was generally seen as Deputy PM).
    It's outside the Cabinet and therefore not on a Cabinet pay grade? Therefore it's a demotion.
    It's not definitely outside the Cabinet. Sometimes it is in, sometimes it is out, we await confirmation.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited July 2019

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Dear me. I explained this a while back. I do not

    I know and like Trudy. But her majority is ca. 2000. A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard. Whatever her good local work she cannot count on that saving her.

    Does this Cabinet look like one which gives a damn about the people of West Cumbria? Do they even know where it is or what life is like there? I doubt it.

    Yes, I remember your explanation well. You changed your tune when I pointed out what the electoral law was about second home owners voting (a major problem in parts of Wales).

    I had suggested you were a second home owner, and you said you indignantly were not. You owned a house in Hampstead and your husband owned a house in Copeland !!!!

    And you pontificate on here about the lack of straightforwardness of our political masters !!!!!!

    You may or may not be right that "A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard". You may or may not be right that this Cabinet "does not give a damn about Cumbria".

    But, I would rather hear that from the people of Cumbria. Let them speak for themselves. They don't need help from London, or even from very recently arrived imports to Cumbria.
    Yeah! Send her back.
    The point is Cyclefree hasn't left Hampstead yet.

    So, she can't really speak for Cumbria.
    How do all those historians of ancient Rome manage to write their books?
    "And headphoned soldiers standing up in turrets.
    How long were they approaching down my roads
    As if they owned them?”

    But, you didn't own "my roads", General Topping.

    Cyclefree can speak for herself. And she should let Cumbrians speak for themselves.
    You're right we didn't own them. Kept them as safe as possible for "you" however.

    Of course she can speak for herself I was discussing the general point. She can understand about an area without having been present until you think she qualifies as a resident.
    I wanted no part of your "safe-keeping", thank you.

    Heaney's poem is about belonging to a place, "our roads".

    You don't belong to a place by buying a second home and bringing in a little money and little dust.

    And you can't speak for a place without belonging.
    Yeah there was a lot of that there. All part of Tommy's lot. Water off a duck's back tbh.

    But luckily enough we now understand the criteria for people being able to have opinions on places or what the qualifications are for belonging.

    I've heard similar sentiments relating to other types of foreigners; maybe you hold those also.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    edited July 2019
    My reaction to the new Cabinet announced by Boris Johnson is not printable! 😱So much for his main claim to be the man to unite the Conservative party! He has sent a clear message that he won't tolerate, never mind nurture the broad tent of support that has delivered longevity & electoral success for the party! Also extremely sad to see Richard Nabavi resign form his membership of the party. My own membership would be hanging by a shoogle peg right now if it was not for the fact that I want to support Ruth Davidson & the Scottish Conservatives up here in Scotland.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    Boris styles himself as a latter-day Churchill, but I'm not entirely convinced that his cabinet choices demonstrate that his study of the great man is very deep:

    In War: Resolution,
    In Defeat: Defiance,
    In Victory: Magnanimity
    In Peace: Good Will.

    He's got Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan and Jo Johnson in his Cabinet and also pulled Michael Green back from the wilderness what more did you expect?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    DougSeal said:

    @Philip_Thompson


    This is a cabinet that looks back at a dead empire, fearful of the world, contemptuous of our near neighbours, with hate in its heart for the world. Brexit is the clinging to a past hoping for solace from former colonies that care nothing for us.

    This cabinet will break up the U.K. England will be surrounded on all sides by the EU, Scotland to the North, Ireland (maybe Wales) to the West, the Mainland of our continent to the South and East. We will have to pass through the EU to get ourselves and our goods anywhere by land or air. We cannot cut ourselves off from our closest relations for ever. We are embedded with them. This is a family tiff that will pass and we will come back with our tails between our legs a much smaller nation. You’ve lost - you just don’t realise it yet.

    Complete and utter codswallop.

    Give me one good reason the UK can't be a successful, modern, independent global nation without being a part of the EU . . . yet Canada doesn't need to be part of the USA, NZ doesn't need to be a part of Australia, Sri Lanka doesn't need to be part of India and Japan doesn't need to be a part of China?
    Northern Ireland.
    Lack of substantial natural resources or farmland.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    On Betfair, the implied probability of Brexit by the end of the year has now shot up to nearly 50%. But the probability of No Deal by the end of the year is pretty much unchanged at under 30%.

    Does that make sense?

    Money going on the EU folding somewhat..... Enough to give Boris a deal anyway.
    Gee the smart money is that being firmer with the EU is what is needed to see the EU budge. Who could have seen that coming!?
    Mr Barnier has said tonight that he still hopes to ratify Theresa’s WA.
    Calming down a little, perhaps Johnson has enough of the ERG roped in his ministry to allow a minor edited WA to slip through?

    Obviously Steve Baker and Bill Cash will go down raging, but how many others when Patel and IDS are ringing them up and imploring them?
    I still see Boris bottling No Deal. How he does it - and how his little soldiers will undertake the mental gymnastics needed to accept it - remains to be seen, but it should be an interesting spectacle.
    He has a cabinet chock full of Brexiters. It should be a doddle to get the WA through.
    There is no way this cabinet is passing the WA. The plan is No Deal or bust.

    The absence of any attempt at building support is interesting. It sets quite a precedent for Corbyn.
    That's definitely the message Boris is intending Brussels to hear with this. It's definitely going to be panic stations there as well.
    Nah. They are not bothered.
    That's based on?
    Everything they say.

    https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1152243796354228226?s=19
    Mandy Rice Davies applies.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1154148948250177536

    Well, probably yes. But is there anyone left alive who thinks this Governement with its working majority 2 or 3 would last to 2022 whatever it does on EU?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    What a tremendous cabinet.

    Cummings earning his corn already.

    Great start Boris.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Dear me. I explained this a while back. I do not have a vote in Trudy Harrison’s constituency but my husband and daughter do. Daughter will not vote Tory under any circumstances and husband now won’t. He did before. So that’s one vote lost. I am in the process of moving so, depending on when the election is held, I will have a vote. It will not be for the Tories.

    I know and like Trudy. But her majority is ca. 2000. A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard. Whatever her good local work she cannot count on that saving her.

    Does this Cabinet look like one which gives a damn about the people of West Cumbria? Do they even know where it is or what life is like there? I doubt it.

    Yes, I remember your explanation well. You changed your tune when I pointed out what the electoral law was about second home owners voting (a major problem in parts of Wales).

    I had suggested you were a second home owner, and you said you indignantly were not. You owned a house in Hampstead and your husband owned a house in Copeland !!!!

    And you pontificate on here about the lack of straightforwardness of our political masters !!!!!!

    You may or may not be right that "A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard". You may or may not be right that this Cabinet "does not give a damn about Cumbria".

    But, I would rather hear that from the people of Cumbria. Let them speak for themselves. They don't need help from London, or even from very recently arrived imports to Cumbria.
    Yeah! Send her back.
    The point is Cyclefree hasn't left Hampstead yet.

    So, she can't really speak for Cumbria.
    I can and do speak out of my own experience. And I do have experience of West Cumbria. You do not know what that is and yet you have the arrogance to tell me what I can and cannot say.

    You are free to say what you like.

    But, you are a second home owner in Cumbria, and that clearly makes your viewpoint very different to the typical resident.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:

    Remainer/Liberal/Centrist/One Nation/Cameroon Britain up in arms tonight.

    Boris is betting the farm that we don't coalesce around an alternative to his horrendous administration...

    Coalition fans won't be happy, nor will many Remainers but the Tory base and most Leave voters will be delighted tonight we have the most rightwing Government since Thatcher and an ethnically diverse Cabinet too to reflect 21st century Britain
    You are a remainer. Why aren't you happy? Oh wait I know. Because given your remain views you are disappointed at the makeup of this government.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    DougSeal said:

    @Philip_Thompson


    This is a cabinet that looks back at a dead empire, fearful of the world, contemptuous of our near neighbours, with hate in its heart for the world. Brexit is the clinging to a past hoping for solace from former colonies that care nothing for us.

    This cabinet will break up the U.K. England will be surrounded on all sides by the EU, Scotland to the North, Ireland (maybe Wales) to the West, the Mainland of our continent to the South and East. We will have to pass through the EU to get ourselves and our goods anywhere by land or air. We cannot cut ourselves off from our closest relations for ever. We are embedded with them. This is a family tiff that will pass and we will come back with our tails between our legs a much smaller nation. You’ve lost - you just don’t realise it yet.

    Complete and utter codswallop.

    Give me one good reason the UK can't be a successful, modern, independent global nation without being a part of the EU . . . yet Canada doesn't need to be part of the USA, NZ doesn't need to be a part of Australia, Sri Lanka doesn't need to be part of India and Japan doesn't need to be a part of China?
    Northern Ireland.
    Not a good reason.

    Canada has had a number of border disputes in its history with the USA without joining the USA.

    If instead of Sri Lanka I'd said Pakistan then NI could be viewed as comparable to their disputes. I don't see Pakistan being begged to be let in to their neighbour any time soon do you?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    Can anyone logically explain why Michael Gove has accepted a demotion from the Cabinet?

    Nick P told me it could potentially be an "upgrade" from DEFRA?
    Its a consolation prize! A non job. I always wonder if it is an 'In' joke with PMs to appoint someone to that position.
    It depends what Boris does with it. The position is essentially the PM's fixer - often the person who gets to investigate problems and to act as spokesman to the media. If the PM doesn't use him then it's a demotion, but usually it's a senior role (the last one was Lidington, who was generally seen as Deputy PM).
    That's true.

    Although, I always think of it as a wooden spoon job!

    I wonder what Gove's reaction was when he was offered that? Hope he did not look too disappointed as Boris would have enjoyed that! Gove has probably sent his No Confidence letter into the head of the 1922 as a result of that!


  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    TOPPING said:


    Yeah there was a lot of that there. All part of Tommy's lot. Water off a duck's back tbh.

    But luckily enough we now understand the criteria for people being able to have opinions on places or what the qualifications are for belonging.

    I've heard similar sentiments relating to other types of foreigners; maybe you hold those also.

    Excellent smearing.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Dear me. I explained this a while back. I do not have a vote in Trudy Harrison’s constituency but my husband and daughter do. Daughter will not vote Tory under any circumstances and husband now won’t. He did before. So that’s one vote lost. I am in the process of moving so, depending on when the election is held, I will have a vote. It will not be for the Tories.

    I know and like Trudy. But her majority is ca. 2000. A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard. Whatever her good local work she cannot count on that saving her.

    Does this Cabinet look like one which gives a damn about the people of West Cumbria? Do they even know where it is or what life is like there? I doubt it.

    Yes, I remember your explanation well. You changed your tune when I pointed out what the electoral law was about second home owners voting (a major problem in parts of Wales).

    I had suggested you were a second home owner, and you said you indignantly were not. You owned a house in Hampstead and your husband owned a house in Copeland !!!!

    And you pontificate on here about the lack of straightforwardness of our political masters !!!!!!

    You may or may not be right that "A No Deal Brexit will hit Cumbria hard". You may or may not be right that this Cabinet "does not give a damn about Cumbria".

    But, I would rather hear that from the people of Cumbria. Let them speak for themselves. They don't need help from London, or even from very recently arrived imports to Cumbria.
    Yeah! Send her back.
    The point is Cyclefree hasn't left Hampstead yet.

    So, she can't really speak for Cumbria.
    I can and do speak out of my own experience. And I do have experience of West Cumbria. You do not know what that is and yet you have the arrogance to tell me what I can and cannot say.

    You are free to say what you like.

    But, you are a second home owner in Cumbria, and that clearly makes your viewpoint very different to the typical resident.
    I’m a one home owner in Cumbria. A lovely part of the world.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And so begins the era of the Moggster! :D
    Only if you watch BBC Parliament.
This discussion has been closed.