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Guardian reports at least 5 Tories vote Aye.

dixiedean said:

Guardian reports at least 5 Tories vote Aye.

Tory scum.

Opposition loss 298 v 309

There seems to be an assumption in many comments here that, if Boris or another leader engineers an election before October 31st, the Brexit Party would be neutralised into irrelevance. That sounds like cloud-cuckoo land to me. Admittedly they'd do much more damage after October 31st, but that doesn't mean they'd do no damage before.

Gallowgate said:

Government wins

I do love our sovereign Parliament.

numbertwelve said:

IanB2 said:

Opposition loss 298 v 309

I’m quite surprised actually, though if we get to the pointy end in September/October I suspect the numbers would sufficiently shift.

Can't be voted on again, surely? Or is Bercow only consistent in his anti-Brexit posturing?

Mr. Twelve, I also thought the Government would lose that vote.

The opposition to no deal in the Commons is much weaker than claimed. Maybe Johnson can push it through without an election.

oxfordsimon said:

TOPPING said:

oxfordsimon said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JackW said:

HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.

Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.

If he wont be a Tory at an ensuing election. If he defects to Lib Dems do you think he would hold his seat or would the Tories regain it?

Country before Party? Alien for a Leaver the concept but it does happen.

People on both sides of the divide are capable of having principles. The constant smearing helps no-one.

Grieve seems to be enjoying grandstanding rather too much for my liking. I don't care for anyone who postures in that way.

Francois more your cup of Rosie is it?

Not at all. Again with the smearing.

I am a remain voter - but one with deep reservations about the direction of the EU in terms of the legal systems it is allowing to develop.

I would not vote remain now. But I am far, far, far from being an ERG type.

I am someone who is very happy to be European in the cultural and geographical meaning of that work. I just don't feel comfortable with the way the EU has developed. And yes, I believed the economic arguments during the referendum - which is what swayed me at the last minute.

So basically you cancel me out. I voted Leave as the Euro will fall apart at some point and ideally we should be as far away from the EU as possible when that occurs.

However the implementation has been so bad that to be honest its safer to be in the EU then outside it given the quality of our politicians....

Looks to me like there were some absentees on the opposition side, and whoever called the vote quickly knew what they were doing

SouthamObserver said:

A lot of abstentions, it seems. I doubt there will be next time.

I thought this was supposed to be the last ever time to get No Deal off the table?

Until the next time...

JackW said:

Sajid Javid up shortly.

Cant see the membership voting for him myself

SouthamObserver said:

A lot of abstentions, it seems. I doubt there will be next time.

abstentions or just MPs unable to be there in time. Remember Boles had to fly back at zero notice to vote...

Philip_Thompson said:

BannedInParis said:

Philip_Thompson said:

That is overthinking it. Is Corbyn going to say he would rather have a Tory Brexit than an election?

He's spent the last two years working pretty hard towards it.

He's spent 2 years saying "I want another election, I want another election". If the PM calls for an election the idea he could say "actually no thanks" is ludicrous.

It is not ludicrous. The Tories are heading for a car crash either way in October why would the opposition want to let them off the hook. Corbyn maybe desperate to get into the driving seat but he doesn't want to be sitting there on October 31st.

Chris said:

There also seems to be an assumption that Johnson will be able to fight an election on a policy of No Deal without causing a significant split in the Tory party with anti-No-Deal Conservatives standing against the official candidates.

Yep, that too. And he'd lose a lot of votes to the LibDems or even Labour.

oxfordsimon said:

TOPPING said:

oxfordsimon said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JackW said:

HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.

Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.

If he wont be a Tory at an ensuing election. If he defects to Lib Dems do you think he would hold his seat or would the Tories regain it?

Country before Party? Alien for a Leaver the concept but it does happen.

People on both sides of the divide are capable of having principles. The constant smearing helps no-one.

Grieve seems to be enjoying grandstanding rather too much for my liking. I don't care for anyone who postures in that way.

Francois more your cup of Rosie is it?

Not at all. Again with the smearing.

I am a remain voter - but one with deep reservations about the direction of the EU in terms of the legal systems it is allowing to develop.

I would not vote remain now. But I am far, far, far from being an ERG type.

I am someone who is very happy to be European in the cultural and geographical meaning of that work. I just don't feel comfortable with the way the EU has developed. And yes, I believed the economic arguments during the referendum - which is what swayed me at the last minute.

LOL so saying you are a fan of Mark Francois is a smear! So we do agree on these matters although I am disappointed that you should feel the need to insult him.

Not that I want to re-run the debate but what about the EU did you dislike?

oxfordsimon said:

williamglenn said:

oxfordsimon said:

I am a remain voter - but one with deep reservations about the direction of the EU in terms of the legal systems it is allowing to develop.

What do you mean by "the legal systems it is allowing to develop"?

I am not happy with the way the European courts are allowing activist judges to expand their influence over our ability to set our own laws - and yes, I do acknowledge that part of that is the ECHR and part of it is ECJ and so only, in part, related to our direct relationship with the EU.

But I am uncomfortable how things have developed under those courts and those relationships need to be redefined.

Can you give any example of ECJ judicial activism? I think even @Richard_Tyndall would disagree with you on that.

RobD said:

numbertwelve said:

IanB2 said:

Opposition loss 298 v 309

I’m quite surprised actually, though if we get to the pointy end in September/October I suspect the numbers would sufficiently shift.

Can't be voted on again, surely? Or is Bercow only consistent in his anti-Brexit posturing?

I’m not sure the motion would be substantially the same given that it was simply to take control of the parliamentary timetable. If it had been a defeat on legislation that would have sought to block no deal then yes, I’d agree.

It seems to me though that we are possibly getting to a place where Mays deal + some cosmetic tweaks to the backstop might get through. Whether the EU will put that on the table remains to be seen though.

If I were a citizen I would be quite irritated at all these cabinet ministers spending time launching their party leadership bids instead of, you know, running the country.

Oh wait I am and I am.

OllyT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

BannedInParis said:

Philip_Thompson said:

That is overthinking it. Is Corbyn going to say he would rather have a Tory Brexit than an election?

He's spent the last two years working pretty hard towards it.

He's spent 2 years saying "I want another election, I want another election". If the PM calls for an election the idea he could say "actually no thanks" is ludicrous.

It is not ludicrous. The Tories are heading for a car crash either way in October why would the opposition want to let them off the hook. Corbyn maybe desperate to get into the driving seat but he doesn't want to be sitting there on October 31st.

Why have your name attached to the disaster when you can sit on the sidelines but help it along...

Equally, unless Boris is elected in July and goes for an election immediately it's easy to argue that the time frame doesn't allow an election to occur - remember you need 2 weeks between an election result and Parliament actually sitting so the latest an election could be held is something like October 10th.

Once September comes around it would be perfectly legitimate to claim there isn't time within the timeframe available to hold an election. However, were you to get A50 extended to December I would be happy for an election. You move Boris.

numbertwelve said:

RobD said:

numbertwelve said:

IanB2 said:

Opposition loss 298 v 309

I’m quite surprised actually, though if we get to the pointy end in September/October I suspect the numbers would sufficiently shift.

Can't be voted on again, surely? Or is Bercow only consistent in his anti-Brexit posturing?

I’m not sure the motion would be substantially the same given that it was simply to take control of the parliamentary timetable. If it had been a defeat on legislation that would have sought to block no deal then yes, I’d agree.

It seems to me though that we are possibly getting to a place where Mays deal + some cosmetic tweaks to the backstop might get through. Whether the EU will put that on the table remains to be seen though.

It remains the only gig in town. Whoever's hand is on tiller. I'm sure the EU will be accommodating with the PD.

surbiton19 said:

numbertwelve said:

RobD said:

numbertwelve said:

IanB2 said:

Opposition loss 298 v 309

I’m quite surprised actually, though if we get to the pointy end in September/October I suspect the numbers would sufficiently shift.

Can't be voted on again, surely? Or is Bercow only consistent in his anti-Brexit posturing?

I’m not sure the motion would be substantially the same given that it was simply to take control of the parliamentary timetable. If it had been a defeat on legislation that would have sought to block no deal then yes, I’d agree.

It seems to me though that we are possibly getting to a place where Mays deal + some cosmetic tweaks to the backstop might get through. Whether the EU will put that on the table remains to be seen though.

That would be truly unfair on May.

It would, but politics is an unfair game.

SouthamObserver said:

I suspect it also takes a prorogue off the table.

I think that's off the table anyway.

Oh and for better or worse (for the Labour Party) there's no way Jezza can not agree to a GE. Although as has been pointed out this looks less likely immediately.

This is a perceptive point:

https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1138489504292069376

Javid doing quite well. Better than I expected. Strong on growth, strong on public services.

TOPPING said:

Oh and for better or worse (for the Labour Party) there's no way Jezza can not agree to a GE. Although as has been pointed out this looks less likely immediately.

You can if the timing doesn't work and looking at the time frame unless an election is called in July for September it really doesn't work...

IDS talking absolute bollocks on PM.

He wants to negotiate a FTA while in some kind of implementation period on WTO terms.

So why on earth didn't he support the WA which would have allowed us to do that but without the WTO bit (using the discredited Article 24).

His stupidity defies belief. Worse, he thinks we are as stupid as he is.

Which is why of course we will get the WA.

Richard_Nabavi said:

eek said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

Doesn't today's vote make a GE much less likely? MPs have given Johnson the time and space he says he needs to deliver the deal he has promised. Of course, if he fails to deliver that deal, MPs can make an assessment as to whether crashing out is in the UK's interests or not.

That's probably right.

Writing my comment below I think the timing of this leadership contest makes a general election impossible.

You need 5 weeks for an election and it takes 2 weeks roughly to swear MPs in. You then need a vote for the queen's speech so that adds another week.

So to get any legislation through a new Parliament the election probably needs to be in September.

Yes, it's certainly incredibly tight, and may not be practical at all. Quite apart from anything else, there's a lot of legislation that would be absolutely essential in the event of an imminent no-deal crash out. That's why I keep saying Boris and some of the others are bonkers to make a fetish out of the 31st October.

The damage there has however already been done.

Richard_Nabavi said:

eek said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

Doesn't today's vote make a GE much less likely? MPs have given Johnson the time and space he says he needs to deliver the deal he has promised. Of course, if he fails to deliver that deal, MPs can make an assessment as to whether crashing out is in the UK's interests or not.

That's probably right.

Writing my comment below I think the timing of this leadership contest makes a general election impossible.

You need 5 weeks for an election and it takes 2 weeks roughly to swear MPs in. You then need a vote for the queen's speech so that adds another week.

So to get any legislation through a new Parliament the election probably needs to be in September.

Yes, it's certainly incredibly tight, and may not be practical at all. Quite apart from anything else, there's a lot of legislation that would be absolutely essential in the event of an imminent no-deal crash out. That's why I keep saying Boris and some of the others are bonkers to make a fetish out of the 31st October.

So basically you need an election on September 12th - when remarkably enough I'm on holiday...

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is a perceptive point:

https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1138489504292069376

Probably best for Boris to keep the Remainers in the tent. He won't want them causing trouble on the backbenches. Moreover, they'll act as a useful firewall, with the Ultras blaming the europhile rotters in the Cabinet for the collapse of his Brexit strategy rather than him.

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

I suspect it also takes a prorogue off the table.

I think that's off the table anyway.

True.

10 Tories voted with Labour today. That's before the leadership election is done and the new government is formed. If I were a No Dealer I would not be taking much heart from today's vote. Apparently seven Labour MPs voted against, too. I am not sure they would do so again if they were then voting for No Deal.

I am afraid there are more than 7 potential Red Tories.

TOPPING said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

Oh and for better or worse (for the Labour Party) there's no way Jezza can not agree to a GE. Although as has been pointed out this looks less likely immediately.

You can if the timing doesn't work and looking at the time frame unless an election is called in July for September it really doesn't work...

He must always be up for it. It has been the only coherent Labour Party line throughout.

So he would agree a general election on October 31st?

Stark_Dawning said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is a perceptive point:

https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1138489504292069376

Probably best for Boris to keep the Remainers in the tent. He won't want them causing trouble on the backbenches. Moreover, they'll act as a useful firewall, with the Ultras blaming the europhile rotters in the Cabinet for the collapse of his Brexit strategy rather than him.

What's Hammond and Gauke got to lose if Gauke is no confidenced and Hammond is retiring...

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

Oh and for better or worse (for the Labour Party) there's no way Jezza can not agree to a GE. Although as has been pointed out this looks less likely immediately.

You can if the timing doesn't work and looking at the time frame unless an election is called in July for September it really doesn't work...

He must always be up for it. It has been the only coherent Labour Party line throughout.

So he would agree a general election on October 31st?

I think so yes. And he would fight it on the Cons being frit and he would no doubt announce he had pre-agreed something with the EU.

Who is nominally in charge when parliament breaks up?

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

Oh and for better or worse (for the Labour Party) there's no way Jezza can not agree to a GE. Although as has been pointed out this looks less likely immediately.

You can if the timing doesn't work and looking at the time frame unless an election is called in July for September it really doesn't work...

He must always be up for it. It has been the only coherent Labour Party line throughout.

So he would agree a general election on October 31st?

I think so yes. And he would fight it on the Cons being frit and he would no doubt announce he had pre-agreed something with the EU.

Who is nominally in charge when parliament breaks up?

The existing PM....

Gah!! WA it is then.

rottenborough said:

I wouldn't go this far, but pretty impressive:

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1138840677608054786

I said a very, very long time ago that I would like to see a Boris v Javid contest to replace May. That would be one to make the membership pause before casting their vote.

surbiton19 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

I suspect it also takes a prorogue off the table.

I think that's off the table anyway.

True.

10 Tories voted with Labour today. That's before the leadership election is done and the new government is formed. If I were a No Dealer I would not be taking much heart from today's vote. Apparently seven Labour MPs voted against, too. I am not sure they would do so again if they were then voting for No Deal.

I am afraid there are more than 7 potential Red Tories.

Not if it comes down to positively voting for a No Deal.

TOPPING said:

IDS talking absolute bollocks on PM.

He wants to negotiate a FTA while in some kind of implementation period on WTO terms.

So why on earth didn't he support the WA which would have allowed us to do that but without the WTO bit (using the discredited Article 24).

His stupidity defies belief. Worse, he thinks we are as stupid as he is.

Which is why of course we will get the WA.

He is a rare beast. A stupid person who is actually even more stupid than the rest of us think he is.

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

Looks plausible:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/12/boris-johnson-brexit-general-election

Boris may well think his best shot is a honeymoon election, running against the supposed spectres of the Commission on the one hand and Corbyn on the other.
Then he gets his majority of 170 and is free to do...

what?

It's a huge risk for him. Not least because Labour would undoubtedly include a referendum with a Remain option in its manifesto if Johnson was looking to get a a mandate for No Deal.

You think Corbyn will go for a referendum? Aww bless. Touching

Happy to bet on it for a sum you suggest if Johnson goes to the country looking for a No Deal mandate. Any amount you like.

We'll know he really is SeanT if he suggests £10k!

Brexit not before 2022 has drifted a touch.

Is there a sense that today's vote implies No Brexit is less likely?

Can anyone establish why Lab motion failed? Surely not entirely due to absences - are there signs of fewer Con rebels / more Lab rebels than before?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Twelve, I also thought the Government would lose that vote.

I bet Johnson was praying they would!

OllyT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

BannedInParis said:

Philip_Thompson said:

That is overthinking it. Is Corbyn going to say he would rather have a Tory Brexit than an election?

He's spent the last two years working pretty hard towards it.

He's spent 2 years saying "I want another election, I want another election". If the PM calls for an election the idea he could say "actually no thanks" is ludicrous.

It is not ludicrous. The Tories are heading for a car crash either way in October why would the opposition want to let them off the hook. Corbyn maybe desperate to get into the driving seat but he doesn't want to be sitting there on October 31st.

Corbyn can't say "I don't want an election because I want the UK to disastrously crash under the Tories first". He may think it but he can't say or do it.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

Nigel_Foremain said:

TOPPING said:

IDS talking absolute bollocks on PM.

He wants to negotiate a FTA while in some kind of implementation period on WTO terms.

So why on earth didn't he support the WA which would have allowed us to do that but without the WTO bit (using the discredited Article 24).

His stupidity defies belief. Worse, he thinks we are as stupid as he is.

Which is why of course we will get the WA.

He is a rare beast. A stupid person who is actually even more stupid than the rest of us think he is.

Somebody told me an anecdote about him in ministerial office, they told me IDS was aloof and not trusted by the civil service. I think IDS is a complete prat and his obsession with Europe is only surpassed by his other obsession with benefits.

It would not have surprised me if IDS, when he was at the DWP would have got signs outside of jobcentres stating "Arbeit macht frei" meaning "work sets you free" !

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is a perceptive point:

https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1138489504292069376

It only strengthens opposition to no deal if they weren't prepared to resign to oppose no deal.

If they were prepared to then they can oppose from the backbenches but it spikes any principled resignation from happening.

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Yet the LDs went through the lobbies with the Tories for 5 years! In politics you are grateful for the support you attract! LD cannot be too picky about defectors unless they have anti-Semitic views or something equally repellent..