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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,997

    kamski said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    here's a tip, to avoid making an "idiot" of yourself, try replacing the word "Islam" with the word "Judaism" or the world "muslims" with the word "jews" in any statement to see how it sounds, it should help you with your blindspot.
    Indeed and just as it is offence to Muslims to suggest Islam demands women not be seen and be covered up from head to toe, it would be equally offensive to Jews to suggest Judaism demands it too...
    Which might be a reasonable point to make if you didn't do so by describing people as 'letterboxes', and adding that's it's important to say what you mean.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,629
    edited June 2019
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    No. Johnson's point in the article was he was opposing bans that other nations like France and Sweden have passed.

    But why let facts get in the way of your gesturing?
    Here is a fact: Johnson wrote this:
    "If a constituent came to my MP’s surgery with her face obscured, I should feel fully entitled – like Jack Straw – to ask her to remove it so that I could talk to her properly."
    So doing exactly what I said - telling ethnic minority women what to wear.

    and why use insulting language like "gesturing"?
    No. What not to wear in his own surgery, not in public. Too right too.

    If someone goes in wearing a balaclava and is asked to remove it would you be upset?

    And I use gesturing as that is the correct word to use. If you find it insulting maybe stop gesturing and start adhering to facts?
  • isamisam Posts: 34,623
    Nigelb said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    Who knew it might be simple to elucidate the ethnic background of UK Muslims ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom#/media/File:British_Muslims_Ethnic_groups.png

    Idiot.
    8 years ago.

    I reckon the European (inc Turkish) Muslim % has gone up since then
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,629
    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    here's a tip, to avoid making an "idiot" of yourself, try replacing the word "Islam" with the word "Judaism" or the world "muslims" with the word "jews" in any statement to see how it sounds, it should help you with your blindspot.
    Indeed and just as it is offence to Muslims to suggest Islam demands women not be seen and be covered up from head to toe, it would be equally offensive to Jews to suggest Judaism demands it too...
    Which might be a reasonable point to make if you didn't do so by describing people as 'letterboxes', and adding that's it's important to say what you mean.
    They do look like letterboxes.

    Mockery is a perfectly valid tool. We should mock misogynistic behaviour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,997
    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    Who knew it might be simple to elucidate the ethnic background of UK Muslims ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom#/media/File:British_Muslims_Ethnic_groups.png

    Idiot.
    8 years ago.

    I reckon the European (inc Turkish) Muslim % has gone up since then
    Which alters RoyalBlue's idiocy how ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,997

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    here's a tip, to avoid making an "idiot" of yourself, try replacing the word "Islam" with the word "Judaism" or the world "muslims" with the word "jews" in any statement to see how it sounds, it should help you with your blindspot.
    Indeed and just as it is offence to Muslims to suggest Islam demands women not be seen and be covered up from head to toe, it would be equally offensive to Jews to suggest Judaism demands it too...
    Which might be a reasonable point to make if you didn't do so by describing people as 'letterboxes', and adding that's it's important to say what you mean.
    They do look like letterboxes.

    Mockery is a perfectly valid tool. We should mock misogynistic behaviour.
    You are mocking the victims.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,998

    I have to say after watching Boris Johnson on the TV today, I cannot imagine him as PM. He comes across very badly, unprofessional, glib and inarticulate. Johnson does not look the part, sound the part or have the judgement required for such an important role. He may well become PM but having a joke like that as PM is not funny!

    A small number of sensible moderate Tory MPs may hold the future of our country in their hands, and have a place in history on offer in return for sacrificing their careers. Will be interesting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,644
    edited June 2019
    justin124 said:

    It is not clear that a new PM always receives a significant Honeymoon boost - or that it lasts long. Macmillan was not riding high in early 1957 - neither was Douglas-Home at the end of 1963. Wilson become PM in mid- October 1964 yet lost the supposedly safe seat of Leyton to the Tories at a by election in January 1965. Callaghan took office at the beginning of April 1976 yet Labour did not fare particularly well at the May 1976 Local Elections - and was very unpopular by the Autumn. Johnson is much better known as a personality than his predecessors and will carry high expectations from his supporters. The potential for disappointment is likely to be very great.

    Boris has a high ceiling and a low floor but he is the only Tory I can see who can win a majority against Corbyn so is worth the risk
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    No. Johnson's point in the article was he was opposing bans that other nations like France and Sweden have passed.

    But why let facts get in the way of your gesturing?
    Here is a fact: Johnson wrote this:
    "If a constituent came to my MP’s surgery with her face obscured, I should feel fully entitled – like Jack Straw – to ask her to remove it so that I could talk to her properly."
    So doing exactly what I said - telling ethnic minority women what to wear.

    and why use insulting language like "gesturing"?
    1) Not all ethnic minority women wear the veil!
    Indeed. And not all women who wear the veil are ethnic minorities. However, some ethnic minority women do wear the veil, and if Johnson were to tell such a woman to remove the veil, then he would be telling an ethnic minority woman what to wear.

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,249
    OGH is having a flutter, or a rush of blood to the head. I'm deeply skeptical of the value on this bet, but time will tell.

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I have to say after watching Boris Johnson on the TV today, I cannot imagine him as PM. He comes across very badly, unprofessional, glib and inarticulate. Johnson does not look the part, sound the part or have the judgement required for such an important role. He may well become PM but having a joke like that as PM is not funny!

    And neither is Corbyn as LTO
    True, I am in complete dispair at the moment about UK politics. The whole country seems to have gone haywire.
    Why can't we just go back to the good old days of killing millions in far-flung countries, unrestrained apocalyptic damage to the environment, sidelining of minorities, and never-ending transfer of wealth to the richest? You know, when people were polite.
    I did not support the 2003 onward Gulf war. My thinking on that is G W Bush only embarked upon that was because it was unfinnished business from the 1991 war in the eyes of the neo con advisers G W Bush surrounded himself with. If we Brexit we will likley be ever more intertwinned with US wars as we seek a closer trade relationship.

    The problem with environmentalism is it is like chasing shadows, as soon as x is implemented people want y. It is never ending! I do think the global population needs to live a more sustainable consumption of resources but the UK cannot impact the global problem alone as it is futile.
    Hi Taxman.

    What is your feeling about equities at the moment? Is it time to move to gold, or other?
    I suppose it depends on your willingness to take risk but my guess is no better than the next person. My online ID is related to The Beatles song the Taxman. I am not someone who works for the IR or any other financial service profession. Sorry to dissapoint!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,998
    justin124 said:

    It is not clear that a new PM always receives a significant Honeymoon boost - or that it lasts long. Macmillan was not riding high in early 1957 - neither was Douglas-Home at the end of 1963. Wilson become PM in mid- October 1964 yet lost the supposedly safe seat of Leyton to the Tories at a by election in January 1965. Callaghan took office at the beginning of April 1976 yet Labour did not fare particularly well at the May 1976 Local Elections - and was very unpopular by the Autumn. Johnson is much better known as a personality than his predecessors and will carry high expectations from his supporters. The potential for disappointment is likely to be very great.

    He’ll get a honeymoon - as both May and Brown did - but his may not be even as long as theirs.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,623
    edited June 2019
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    Who knew it might be simple to elucidate the ethnic background of UK Muslims ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom#/media/File:British_Muslims_Ethnic_groups.png

    Idiot.
    8 years ago.

    I reckon the European (inc Turkish) Muslim % has gone up since then
    Which alters RoyalBlue's idiocy how ?
    I thought you were trying to prove that mocking Islam was being racist by showing a chart from 2011 of UK Muslims ethnicity being mainly non white?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 10,530
    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    Everyone take a few paces back from the detail of the leadership launch and examine the strategic position:
    1. Brexit is the new political paradigm that defines all other issues / parties. Increasingly entrenched increasingly angry hate mobs on both sides
    2. Leavers will not countenance any further delay. Whether the UK is ready or not, we must leave. And leave with no deal is the only proper leave
    3. Leavers are predominantly Tory leaning. And will only vote Tory again if Leave really does mean Leave. Unless the Tories do this in the short term, Farage will obliterate them and make them irrelevant in the medium and long term
    4. The parliamentary maths remain deadlocked - no support for deal, no deal, or remain. Yet the deadlock must be broken

    Which explains the Boris stratagem. I want a deal, but we have to leave on Halloween. (then) I've spoken to these foreign jobbies and they won't budge so no deal it is. (then) These traitors and fools in Parliament want to block our future and imprison us here. I'm calling an election - vote Boris and we leave with no deal.

    Thats it. Boris doesn't care about detail. Never has. And his audience of leavers don't care either (its all project fear). And unless he does this thing the Tories are toast. If it all goes wrong them may be toast, but may be is better than will be.

    Boris as PM. Election in late October. A Tory win. Immediate No Deal and damn the consequences.

    Did you expect the Peterborough result?
    I expected the Conservative vote to fall further, and therefore TBP to win.
    I was very much prepared for a Brexit Party win but nothing like as astonished by Labour hanging on as most pundits clearly were. The stronger Tory vote did not surprise me.Turnout was 48.4% compared with just 35% there for the EU elections. On a GE turnout of 65% - 70% I would expect the Brexit Party share to fall back there to circa 20% - leaving a close contest between the main parties. LDs would also drop back.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,629
    Quincel said:

    OGH is having a flutter, or a rush of blood to the head. I'm deeply skeptical of the value on this bet, but time will tell.

    Tory MPs must have a death wish if they go for Rory.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,629
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    here's a tip, to avoid making an "idiot" of yourself, try replacing the word "Islam" with the word "Judaism" or the world "muslims" with the word "jews" in any statement to see how it sounds, it should help you with your blindspot.
    Indeed and just as it is offence to Muslims to suggest Islam demands women not be seen and be covered up from head to toe, it would be equally offensive to Jews to suggest Judaism demands it too...
    Which might be a reasonable point to make if you didn't do so by describing people as 'letterboxes', and adding that's it's important to say what you mean.
    They do look like letterboxes.

    Mockery is a perfectly valid tool. We should mock misogynistic behaviour.
    You are mocking the victims.
    I'm mocking their oppression. What are you doing to oppose it?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    here's a tip, to avoid making an "idiot" of yourself, try replacing the word "Islam" with the word "Judaism" or the world "muslims" with the word "jews" in any statement to see how it sounds, it should help you with your blindspot.
    Indeed and just as it is offence to Muslims to suggest Islam demands women not be seen and be covered up from head to toe, it would be equally offensive to Jews to suggest Judaism demands it too...
    Which might be a reasonable point to make if you didn't do so by describing people as 'letterboxes', and adding that's it's important to say what you mean.
    They do look like letterboxes.

    Mockery is a perfectly valid tool. We should mock misogynistic behaviour.
    It really isn't, it is tiresome, rude and potentially frightening. and why mock the *victims* of misogyny? You and Boris are very welcome to find large groups of hard line male muslims and deploy your satirical skills against them. Unless you find that mocking women is somehow safer and more satisfying?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,629
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    here's a tip, to avoid making an "idiot" of yourself, try replacing the word "Islam" with the word "Judaism" or the world "muslims" with the word "jews" in any statement to see how it sounds, it should help you with your blindspot.
    Indeed and just as it is offence to Muslims to suggest Islam demands women not be seen and be covered up from head to toe, it would be equally offensive to Jews to suggest Judaism demands it too...
    Which might be a reasonable point to make if you didn't do so by describing people as 'letterboxes', and adding that's it's important to say what you mean.
    They do look like letterboxes.

    Mockery is a perfectly valid tool. We should mock misogynistic behaviour.
    It really isn't, it is tiresome, rude and potentially frightening. and why mock the *victims* of misogyny? You and Boris are very welcome to find large groups of hard line male muslims and deploy your satirical skills against them. Unless you find that mocking women is somehow safer and more satisfying?
    Frightening? Oh give over.

    And the victims are more victimised by those who justify it as being appropriate for their ethnicity or appropriate for their religion than anyone else. It isnt appropriate and it shouldn't be normalised.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    It is not clear that a new PM always receives a significant Honeymoon boost - or that it lasts long. Macmillan was not riding high in early 1957 - neither was Douglas-Home at the end of 1963. Wilson become PM in mid- October 1964 yet lost the supposedly safe seat of Leyton to the Tories at a by election in January 1965. Callaghan took office at the beginning of April 1976 yet Labour did not fare particularly well at the May 1976 Local Elections - and was very unpopular by the Autumn. Johnson is much better known as a personality than his predecessors and will carry high expectations from his supporters. The potential for disappointment is likely to be very great.

    Boris has a high ceiling and a low floor but he is the only Tory I can see who can win a majority against Corbyn so is worth the risk
    It's worth the risk if and only if beating Corbyn is the most important goal of the Conservative Party project. It's not my party, so I'll defer to you on this. But I'd have thought there were bigger considerations - like keeping the party in one piece and not wrecking the economy for example.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,997
    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    Who knew it might be simple to elucidate the ethnic background of UK Muslims ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom#/media/File:British_Muslims_Ethnic_groups.png

    Idiot.
    8 years ago.

    I reckon the European (inc Turkish) Muslim % has gone up since then
    Which alters RoyalBlue's idiocy how ?
    I thought you were trying to prove that mocking Islam was being racist by showing a chart from 2011 of UK Muslims ethnicity being mainly non white?
    No - I was calling him an idiot for calling kamski an idiot.
    Are you saying he's now slightly less of an idiot ?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,905

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    here's a tip, to avoid making an "idiot" of yourself, try replacing the word "Islam" with the word "Judaism" or the world "muslims" with the word "jews" in any statement to see how it sounds, it should help you with your blindspot.
    Indeed and just as it is offence to Muslims to suggest Islam demands women not be seen and be covered up from head to toe, it would be equally offensive to Jews to suggest Judaism demands it too...
    Which might be a reasonable point to make if you didn't do so by describing people as 'letterboxes', and adding that's it's important to say what you mean.
    They do look like letterboxes.

    Mockery is a perfectly valid tool. We should mock misogynistic behaviour.
    You are mocking the victims.
    I'm mocking their oppression. What are you doing to oppose it?
    It is great you are back on here. With people like yourself commenting we do not need to remind people that most who voted Leave are ignorant and bigoted, because you do it for us. Well done, and thank you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,997
    edited June 2019

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    here's a tip, to avoid making an "idiot" of yourself, try replacing the word "Islam" with the word "Judaism" or the world "muslims" with the word "jews" in any statement to see how it sounds, it should help you with your blindspot.
    Indeed and just as it is offence to Muslims to suggest Islam demands women not be seen and be covered up from head to toe, it would be equally offensive to Jews to suggest Judaism demands it too...
    Which might be a reasonable point to make if you didn't do so by describing people as 'letterboxes', and adding that's it's important to say what you mean.
    They do look like letterboxes.

    Mockery is a perfectly valid tool. We should mock misogynistic behaviour.
    You are mocking the victims.
    I'm mocking their oppression. What are you doing to oppose it?
    Yes, I'm sure that was entirely the point of Johnson's comment.

    A clearly derogatory remark about someone you think the victim of oppression is not 'mocking oppression'.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,623
    Quincel said:

    OGH is having a flutter, or a rush of blood to the head. I'm deeply skeptical of the value on this bet, but time will tell.

    What do you make of the 2k at 1.49 wanting to back Hunt to make the final 2?
  • justin124 said:

    Everyone take a few paces back from the detail of the leadership launch and examine the strategic position:
    1. Brexit is the new political paradigm that defines all other issues / parties. Increasingly entrenched increasingly angry hate mobs on both sides
    2. Leavers will not countenance any further delay. Whether the UK is ready or not, we must leave. And leave with no deal is the only proper leave
    3. Leavers are predominantly Tory leaning. And will only vote Tory again if Leave really does mean Leave. Unless the Tories do this in the short term, Farage will obliterate them and make them irrelevant in the medium and long term
    4. The parliamentary maths remain deadlocked - no support for deal, no deal, or remain. Yet the deadlock must be broken

    Which explains the Boris stratagem. I want a deal, but we have to leave on Halloween. (then) I've spoken to these foreign jobbies and they won't budge so no deal it is. (then) These traitors and fools in Parliament want to block our future and imprison us here. I'm calling an election - vote Boris and we leave with no deal.

    Thats it. Boris doesn't care about detail. Never has. And his audience of leavers don't care either (its all project fear). And unless he does this thing the Tories are toast. If it all goes wrong them may be toast, but may be is better than will be.

    Boris as PM. Election in late October. A Tory win. Immediate No Deal and damn the consequences.

    Did you expect the Peterborough result?
    Nope - I called it for BXP. And if you look at the two variables you can see why they didn't win it and how PM Boris can win an election.

    1. Accept the Leave / Remain paradigm has replaced Labour / Tory
    2. Leave voters were broadly dumping the Tories in favour of Brexit. And a few hundred more switchers would have carried it for Brexit
    3. Remain voters were broadly dumping Labour for noone/LD. And a few hundred more would have carried it for Brexit.
    4. Brexit parties carried more than half the vote, but having split their vote ended up losing the seat
    5. Imagine a PM Boris Tory pitch of "vote Tory on 24th and we leave the EU on the 31st". The leave switchers to Brexit all come home. The Lab switchers to Brexit go Tory. Thats enough votes to carry it for the Tories, almost regardless of what Labour do
    6. Labour will be advocating a "we will block no deal on 31st" position - and lose leave voters. They will also be advocating a "we negotiate a new deal and leave the EU with that" - and lose remain voters.

    If Boris goes straight to the country, he wins a majority, delivers Brexit and kills Labour
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 10,530

    Quincel said:

    OGH is having a flutter, or a rush of blood to the head. I'm deeply skeptical of the value on this bet, but time will tell.

    Tory MPs must have a death wish if they go for Rory.
    They would be much more likely to go for Reinhard Heydrich if it would save their seats. Clearly a thoroughly amoral bunch.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,998

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    It is not clear that a new PM always receives a significant Honeymoon boost - or that it lasts long. Macmillan was not riding high in early 1957 - neither was Douglas-Home at the end of 1963. Wilson become PM in mid- October 1964 yet lost the supposedly safe seat of Leyton to the Tories at a by election in January 1965. Callaghan took office at the beginning of April 1976 yet Labour did not fare particularly well at the May 1976 Local Elections - and was very unpopular by the Autumn. Johnson is much better known as a personality than his predecessors and will carry high expectations from his supporters. The potential for disappointment is likely to be very great.

    Boris has a high ceiling and a low floor but he is the only Tory I can see who can win a majority against Corbyn so is worth the risk
    It's worth the risk if and only if beating Corbyn is the most important goal of the Conservative Party project. It's not my party, so I'll defer to you on this. But I'd have thought there were bigger considerations - like keeping the party in one piece and not wrecking the economy for example.
    The trouble with most of our politicians is that they would hugely prefer governing a wasteland to being the opposition in a flourishing land.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,734
    Chris said:

    Why do you say "metaphorically"?

    If that's metaphorical, what do you think it corresponds to "literally"?

    I think he means that Johnson would not 'actually' deliver the message to a meeting in Brussels with a microphone and then drop it and walk out. But you never know. He did that trip-wire thing a few years back and that went down a storm.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,971

    Sean Gabb is not a fan of Boris.

    "Sean Gabb
    1 hr ·

    E-mail sent to my MP:
    Dear Charlie,
    I allow that you know these people better than I do. However, I have had dealings over the years with Boris Johnson, and am aware of the wider issues surrounding his character and abilities. Everything I know about him inclines me to the view that he is a lazy charlatan - a liar, an adulterer, a procurer of abortions of convenience, and a dangerously incompetent Foreign Secretary. He will not secure a decent exit from the European Union. He will not oversee a reconstruction of our politics. He will be murdered, come the next election, by Jeremy Corbyn. The only reward you will get from supporting him is the loss of your seat.
    I urge you to consider giving support to Dominic Raab, who at least looks competent, and possibly is."

  • isamisam Posts: 34,623
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    Who knew it might be simple to elucidate the ethnic background of UK Muslims ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom#/media/File:British_Muslims_Ethnic_groups.png

    Idiot.
    8 years ago.

    I reckon the European (inc Turkish) Muslim % has gone up since then
    Which alters RoyalBlue's idiocy how ?
    I thought you were trying to prove that mocking Islam was being racist by showing a chart from 2011 of UK Muslims ethnicity being mainly non white?
    No - I was calling him an idiot for calling kamski an idiot.
    Are you saying he's now slightly less of an idiot ?
    I cant really be bothered with this type of banter, sorry
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,971
    edited June 2019

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    here's a tip, to avoid making an "idiot" of yourself, try replacing the word "Islam" with the word "Judaism" or the world "muslims" with the word "jews" in any statement to see how it sounds, it should help you with your blindspot.
    Indeed and just as it is offence to Muslims to suggest Islam demands women not be seen and be covered up from head to toe, it would be equally offensive to Jews to suggest Judaism demands it too...
    Which might be a reasonable point to make if you didn't do so by describing people as 'letterboxes', and adding that's it's important to say what you mean.
    They do look like letterboxes.

    Mockery is a perfectly valid tool. We should mock misogynistic behaviour.
    You are mocking the victims.
    I'm mocking their oppression. What are you doing to oppose it?
    It is great you are back on here. With people like yourself commenting we do not need to remind people that most who voted Leave are ignorant and bigoted, because you do it for us. Well done, and thank you.
    Those who denounce whole groups as "ignorant and bigoted" generally possess both faults in spades.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    You can get 1.1 odds that Boris either wins or fails to make the final 2. That seems like value- what scenario is there where he makes it past MPs but not members?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Quincel said:

    OGH is having a flutter, or a rush of blood to the head. I'm deeply skeptical of the value on this bet, but time will tell.

    Tory MPs must have a death wish if they go for Rory.
    As I posted yesterday, Rory will surprise people with his first round score. Whether he is in the top two is a matter of opinion. I feel the second and third placed candidate will be between 60 and 80 each, it is possible that Rory could hit 2nd as many Remainer MPs in a secret ballot would like to flex their muscles - for the future.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,997
    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    Who knew it might be simple to elucidate the ethnic background of UK Muslims ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom#/media/File:British_Muslims_Ethnic_groups.png

    Idiot.
    8 years ago.

    I reckon the European (inc Turkish) Muslim % has gone up since then
    Which alters RoyalBlue's idiocy how ?
    I thought you were trying to prove that mocking Islam was being racist by showing a chart from 2011 of UK Muslims ethnicity being mainly non white?
    No - I was calling him an idiot for calling kamski an idiot.
    Are you saying he's now slightly less of an idiot ?
    I cant really be bothered with this type of banter, sorry
    Then why get involved in the first place ?
    I don't normally call people idiots, but in the context of RoyalBlue's comment it seemed eminently deserved.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037

    You can get 1.1 odds that Boris either wins or fails to make the final 2. That seems like value- what scenario is there where he makes it past MPs but not members?

    If something emerges in the month in between.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    here's a tip, to avoid making an "idiot" of yourself, try replacing the word "Islam" with the word "Judaism" or the world "muslims" with the word "jews" in any statement to see how it sounds, it should help you with your blindspot.
    Indeed and just as it is offence to Muslims to suggest Islam demands women not be seen and be covered up from head to toe, it would be equally offensive to Jews to suggest Judaism demands it too...
    Which might be a reasonable point to make if you didn't do so by describing people as 'letterboxes', and adding that's it's important to say what you mean.
    They do look like letterboxes.

    Mockery is a perfectly valid tool. We should mock misogynistic behaviour.
    You are mocking the victims.
    I'm mocking their oppression. What are you doing to oppose it?
    It is great you are back on here. With people like yourself commenting we do not need to remind people that most who voted Leave are ignorant and bigoted, because you do it for us. Well done, and thank you.
    Those who denounce whole groups as "ignorant and bigoted" generally possess both faults in spades.
    r/suicidebywords?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    You can get 1.1 odds that Boris either wins or fails to make the final 2. That seems like value- what scenario is there where he makes it past MPs but not members?

    If something emerges in the month in between.
    Oh, is it that long? Fair enough.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,128
    Sean_F said:


    Sean Gabb is not a fan of Boris.

    "I urge you to consider giving support to Dominic Raab, who at least looks competent, and possibly is."

    I don't know who he is, but if he thinks Raab is the answer, it suggest the Tories are in dire straits.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    isam said:

    Quincel said:

    OGH is having a flutter, or a rush of blood to the head. I'm deeply skeptical of the value on this bet, but time will tell.

    What do you make of the 2k at 1.49 wanting to back Hunt to make the final 2?
    I wouldn't take that price, but 20 to 1 would tempt me. It is almost impossible to see how Rory gets into the final two but we've never had a 10 horse race for a party leader before. I don't think you could predict the first round results even if you could waterboard every single Tory MP to find out who they intend to vote for.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,128

    I don't think you could predict the first round results even if you could waterboard every single Tory MP to find out who they intend to vote for.

    You don't think it would be worth a try?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,587


    Nope - I called it for BXP. And if you look at the two variables you can see why they didn't win it and how PM Boris can win an election.

    If Boris goes straight to the country, he wins a majority, delivers Brexit and kills Labour

    My distinct recollection is that you not just called it for BXP, you said Labour would be beaten into a humiliating third.

    That does not inspire confidence in your predictions.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 10,530
    edited June 2019

    justin124 said:



    Thats it. Boris doesn't care about detail. Never has. And his audience of leavers don't care either (its all project fear). And unless he does this thing the Tories are toast. If it all goes wrong them may be toast, but may be is better than will be.

    Boris as PM. Election in late October. A Tory win. Immediate No Deal and damn the consequences.

    Did you expect the Peterborough result?
    Nope - I called it for BXP. And if you look at the two variables you can see why they didn't win it and how PM Boris can win an election.

    1. Accept the Leave / Remain paradigm has replaced Labour / Tory
    2. Leave voters were broadly dumping the Tories in favour of Brexit. And a few hundred more switchers would have carried it for Brexit
    3. Remain voters were broadly dumping Labour for noone/LD. And a few hundred more would have carried it for Brexit.
    4. Brexit parties carried more than half the vote, but having split their vote ended up losing the seat
    5. Imagine a PM Boris Tory pitch of "vote Tory on 24th and we leave the EU on the 31st". The leave switchers to Brexit all come home. The Lab switchers to Brexit go Tory. Thats enough votes to carry it for the Tories, almost regardless of what Labour do
    6. Labour will be advocating a "we will block no deal on 31st" position - and lose leave voters. They will also be advocating a "we negotiate a new deal and leave the EU with that" - and lose remain voters.

    If Boris goes straight to the country, he wins a majority, delivers Brexit and kills Labour
    In such an election I suspect Labour will recapture the LD/Green vote which deserted them for the EU elections - Peterborough showed some signs of that. In a GE I would be surprised if the LDs exceed 12% with the Greens on 2%.
    I don't share your view re- Remain/Leave paradigm - again Peterborough showed that voters have other concerns more relevant to their daily lives.The 2017 Election was intended to be a Brexit focussed campaign - yet was anything but. I would expect the same to happen again - most people are sick to death of Brexit.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,623

    isam said:

    Quincel said:

    OGH is having a flutter, or a rush of blood to the head. I'm deeply skeptical of the value on this bet, but time will tell.

    What do you make of the 2k at 1.49 wanting to back Hunt to make the final 2?
    I wouldn't take that price, but 20 to 1 would tempt me. It is almost impossible to see how Rory gets into the final two but we've never had a 10 horse race for a party leader before. I don't think you could predict the first round results even if you could waterboard every single Tory MP to find out who they intend to vote for.
    20/1 to make the last two sounds alright, given he's 11/2 to win!
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    I don't think you could predict the first round results even if you could waterboard every single Tory MP to find out who they intend to vote for.

    You don't think it would be worth a try?
    Good point. (Though looking at the trouble Jo Brand is in, maybe not everyone will see the humour.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,734

    Good! Honest answer!

    The burka is not a racial thing either. A race is something you are born to and can not change. Nobody is born to a burka.

    (i) "I dislike and disapprove of the full face covering but would not ban it. A ban would in my opinion be an unacceptable intrusion of the state into the right of an individual to dress how they please."

    (ii) "No, I'm not in favour of banning the burka. That would be a step too far. But, heavens, don't they look ridiculous! I see women wearing them and all I can think of is bank robbers or letterboxes."

    (i) is me.
    (ii) is Johnson.

    Same position.

    But who sounds more like a prospective PM of the United Kingdom?

    Quite.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I like Rory Stewart and I'm sure his style of polite, lyrical engagement is being well received.

    But his chances of becoming Tory leader are zilch because even stupid Tories know that if he were their leader - in the current unpredictable Brexit climate - the party would be torn apart and would cease to exist in its current form.

    As nice as he is there'd be no political sense to it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,734

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".

    Yes of course. He was referring to some Muslim women not all of them.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MPs booing a journalist for asking a difficult question?

    I remember the outrage when party members heckled journalists, though I can't remember now whether it was Labour or UKIP party members. Maybe both?

    Anyway, that's a new low set today. Well done everyone.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,629

    HYUFD said:

    Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal

    He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promises
    What promise is impossible?
    No deal on 31st October
    Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.

    Possible ways.

    1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
    2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
    3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
    4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,905
    Mr F, Not a whole group. I used the word "most". Mr Thompson said mockery is a perfectly valid tool. I find mockery of Brexit as very easy as it is the most fucking stupid venture anyone has ever supported. It is the philosophy of the moron, and 52% of the population took leave of their senses, though it doesn't necessarily mean they are all morons in other spheres of their lives. On that subject, and perhaps that alone, they should be mocked, and mocked continuously for their stupidity. Mr Thompson and his obsession with war should be at the front of the queue for this well deserved mockery. I fart in his general direction.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,629
    edited June 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Good! Honest answer!

    The burka is not a racial thing either. A race is something you are born to and can not change. Nobody is born to a burka.

    (i) "I dislike and disapprove of the full face covering but would not ban it. A ban would in my opinion be an unacceptable intrusion of the state into the right of an individual to dress how they please."

    (ii) "No, I'm not in favour of banning the burka. That would be a step too far. But, heavens, don't they look ridiculous! I see women wearing them and all I can think of is bank robbers or letterboxes."

    (i) is me.
    (ii) is Johnson.

    Same position.

    But who sounds more like a prospective PM of the United Kingdom?

    Quite.
    ii) is me.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 35,564
    kinabalu said:

    Good! Honest answer!

    The burka is not a racial thing either. A race is something you are born to and can not change. Nobody is born to a burka.

    (i) "I dislike and disapprove of the full face covering but would not ban it. A ban would in my opinion be an unacceptable intrusion of the state into the right of an individual to dress how they please."

    (ii) "No, I'm not in favour of banning the burka. That would be a step too far. But, heavens, don't they look ridiculous! I see women wearing them and all I can think of is bank robbers or letterboxes."

    (i) is me.
    (ii) is Johnson.

    Same position.

    But who sounds more like a prospective PM of the United Kingdom?

    Quite.
    Greetings, Rory! We have been expecting you... :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,998
    The Financial Times NAILS (no, not SeanT) it: ”there is no political advantage in grasping reality if your voters don’t.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,734
    Fenster said:

    I like Rory Stewart and I'm sure his style of polite, lyrical engagement is being well received.

    But his chances of becoming Tory leader are zilch because even stupid Tories know that if he were their leader - in the current unpredictable Brexit climate - the party would be torn apart and would cease to exist in its current form.

    As nice as he is there'd be no political sense to it.

    I agree. He is the best 25/1 lay that I have come across for quite some time. He has (literally) no chance of winning this contest.
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:



    Thats it. Boris doesn't care about detail. Never has. And his audience of leavers don't care either (its all project fear). And unless he does this thing the Tories are toast. If it all goes wrong them may be toast, but may be is better than will be.

    Boris as PM. Election in late October. A Tory win. Immediate No Deal and damn the consequences.

    Did you expect the Peterborough result?
    Nope - I called it for BXP. And if you look at the two variables you can see why they didn't win it and how PM Boris can win an election.

    1. Accept the Leave / Remain paradigm has replaced Labour / Tory
    2. Leave voters were broadly dumping the Tories in favour of Brexit. And a few hundred more switchers would have carried it for Brexit
    3. Remain voters were broadly dumping Labour for noone/LD. And a few hundred more would have carried it for Brexit.
    4. Brexit parties carried more than half the vote, but having split their vote ended up losing the seat
    5. Imagine a PM Boris Tory pitch of "vote Tory on 24th and we leave the EU on the 31st". The leave switchers to Brexit all come home. The Lab switchers to Brexit go Tory. Thats enough votes to carry it for the Tories, almost regardless of what Labour do
    6. Labour will be advocating a "we will block no deal on 31st" position - and lose leave voters. They will also be advocating a "we negotiate a new deal and leave the EU with that" - and lose remain voters.

    If Boris goes straight to the country, he wins a majority, delivers Brexit and kills Labour
    In such an election I suspect Labour will recapture the LD/Green vote which deserted them for the EU elections - Peterborough showed some signs of that. In a GE I would be surprised if the LDs exceed 12% with the Greens on 2%.
    I don't share your view re- Remain/Leave paradigm - again Peterborough showed that voters have other concerns more relevant to their daily lives.The 2017 Election was intended to be a Brexit focussed campaign - yet was anything but. I would expect the same to happen again - most people are sick to death of Brexit.
    Labour vote share fell by 17%. Tories fell by 25%. The big rises were in the parties most leave and most remain. If people had things if more interest then logically they would have voted for it. I'm looking at not just this by-election, also at the Euros and the locals. Labour and Tory are increasingly disconnected and irrelevant from what voters are interested in.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,629

    Mr F, Not a whole group. I used the word "most". Mr Thompson said mockery is a perfectly valid tool. I find mockery of Brexit as very easy as it is the most fucking stupid venture anyone has ever supported. It is the philosophy of the moron, and 52% of the population took leave of their senses, though it doesn't necessarily mean they are all morons in other spheres of their lives. On that subject, and perhaps that alone, they should be mocked, and mocked continuously for their stupidity. Mr Thompson and his obsession with war should be at the front of the queue for this well deserved mockery. I fart in his general direction.

    I object to your mockery and am going to cry myself to sleep after suffering your abuses.

    Oh wait a second. No I'm not three years old and can live with your mockery. Carry on.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 10,530

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:



    .

    Did you expect the Peterborough result?
    Nope - I called it for BXP. And if you look at the two variables you can see why they didn't win it and how PM Boris can win an election.

    1. Accept the Leave / Remain paradigm has replaced Labour / Tory
    2. Leave voters were broadly dumping the Tories in favour of Brexit. And a few hundred more switchers would have carried it for Brexit
    3. Remain voters were broadly dumping Labour for noone/LD. And a few hundred more would have carried it for Brexit.
    4. Brexit parties carried more than half the vote, but having split their vote ended up losing the seat
    5. Imagine a PM Boris Tory pitch of "vote Tory on 24th and we leave the EU on the 31st". The leave switchers to Brexit all come home. The Lab switchers to Brexit go Tory. Thats enough votes to carry it for the Tories, almost regardless of what Labour do
    6. Labour will be advocating a "we will block no deal on 31st" position - and lose leave voters. They will also be advocating a "we negotiate a new deal and leave the EU with that" - and lose remain voters.

    If Boris goes straight to the country, he wins a majority, delivers Brexit and kills Labour
    In such an election I suspect Labour will recapture the LD/Green vote which deserted them for the EU elections - Peterborough showed some signs of that. In a GE I would be surprised if the LDs exceed 12% with the Greens on 2%.
    I don't share your view re- Remain/Leave paradigm - again Peterborough showed that voters have other concerns more relevant to their daily lives.The 2017 Election was intended to be a Brexit focussed campaign - yet was anything but. I would expect the same to happen again - most people are sick to death of Brexit.
    Labour vote share fell by 17%. Tories fell by 25%. The big rises were in the parties most leave and most remain. If people had things if more interest then logically they would have voted for it. I'm looking at not just this by-election, also at the Euros and the locals. Labour and Tory are increasingly disconnected and irrelevant from what voters are interested in.
    But estimates suggest that Labour would have polled circa 22% in the EU elections in the Peterborough constituency. Last week the party managed 31% - which is a fair jump in two weeks. In the context of a GE campaign and a likely turnout of 65% - 70% , I could see Labour polling circa 40% there. Ditto for the Tories.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,998
    ”Basically, Boris might well be bonkers, but he isn't bonkers enough for many of his own supporters.”

    https://t.co/Rg9omKbdNu
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,406
    edited June 2019
    The ALDE group in EU Parliament has been renamed Renew Europe. To please Macron's party.

    Greens/EFA met earlier this morning to set the bureau. Their final tally is 75 MEPs. Alyn Smith (SNP) is first Vice President. Molly Scott-Cato is elected as one of the Vice Presidents.

    Socialists will have a contest for the group leadership. A Spanish MEP will challange the German incumbent. Election will take place next week.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    You can get 1.1 odds that Boris either wins or fails to make the final 2. That seems like value- what scenario is there where he makes it past MPs but not members?

    If you have some revelation that you think will knock Boris out of the race, and you are not a fellow Leaver like Raab, then the time to release it is when you are up against Boris in the final two.

    If you release it earlier then another Leaver, like Raab, makes the final two and you still lose the members vote.

    That's assuming there is anything that could knock Johnson out of the race.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,409
    Why would those seeking to block Brexit change course now? He sides are drawn, and very little will change in this regard.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,249
    isam said:

    Quincel said:

    OGH is having a flutter, or a rush of blood to the head. I'm deeply skeptical of the value on this bet, but time will tell.

    What do you make of the 2k at 1.49 wanting to back Hunt to make the final 2?
    Too short to me, but being somewhat odds on is probably fair. The second spot looks highly likely to be him or Gove, with him as favourite. But uncertainty means I'd want close to evens at least.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 11,382

    HYUFD said:

    Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal

    He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promises
    What promise is impossible?
    No deal on 31st October
    Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.

    Possible ways.

    1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
    2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
    3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
    4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
    1. isn’t possible and 3. and 4. rely on Parliament not bringing down the Government in the meantime to stop No Deal.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,896
    IanB2 said:

    The Financial Times NAILS (no, not SeanT) it: ”there is no political advantage in grasping reality if your voters don’t.

    On day 1 that may be true. Life is longer than that, even the time in office of a PM should be in years not weeks. When voters find out in weeks that they have been lied to, what then?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,772

    HYUFD said:

    Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal

    He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promises
    What promise is impossible?
    No deal on 31st October
    Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.

    Possible ways.

    1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
    2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
    3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
    4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
    How do you make something a confidence motion in the post-FTPA era?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 11,382

    HYUFD said:

    Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal

    He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promises
    What promise is impossible?
    No deal on 31st October
    Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.

    Possible ways.

    1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
    2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
    3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
    4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
    How do you make something a confidence motion in the post-FTPA era?
    You can’t.

  • Nope - I called it for BXP. And if you look at the two variables you can see why they didn't win it and how PM Boris can win an election.

    If Boris goes straight to the country, he wins a majority, delivers Brexit and kills Labour

    My distinct recollection is that you not just called it for BXP, you said Labour would be beaten into a humiliating third.

    That does not inspire confidence in your predictions.
    Which is why I don't bet...

    What I saw was the direction of travel, and the Peterborough result didn't demonstrate that I saw it wrong.

    There was a massive swing from Tory to Brexit. A straight majority of the vote for the two combined. This would have been enough to carry the seat had the significant Labour to LibDem swing been any bigger. OK, so the Labour vote ONLY collapsed 17% and the LibDems didn't get more. But see the direction of travel, and ask how the "huge Corbyn victory" as they dubbed it gets rolled out.

    Peterborough rolled out every Momentum activist they could mobilise. A massive ground effort can make the difference between winning an losing as this demonstrates, but they won't be able to do that in a general. Nor will our position get any better whilst Magic Grandpa keep insisting we won't leave with no deal, we'll delay to negotiate a slice of unicorn cake and then leave.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,623
    Quincel said:

    isam said:

    Quincel said:

    OGH is having a flutter, or a rush of blood to the head. I'm deeply skeptical of the value on this bet, but time will tell.

    What do you make of the 2k at 1.49 wanting to back Hunt to make the final 2?
    Too short to me, but being somewhat odds on is probably fair. The second spot looks highly likely to be him or Gove, with him as favourite. But uncertainty means I'd want close to evens at least.
    Someone has laid it all. I should probably had a bit before I posed the question
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,128

    HYUFD said:

    Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal

    He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promises
    What promise is impossible?
    No deal on 31st October
    Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.

    Possible ways.

    1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
    2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
    3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
    4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
    How do you make something a confidence motion in the post-FTPA era?
    And 3 and 4 also require blocking any attempt to make him revoke. Basically the only way to do it is by fighting an election and getting a mandate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,998

    HYUFD said:

    Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal

    He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promises
    What promise is impossible?
    No deal on 31st October
    Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.

    Possible ways.

    1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
    2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
    3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
    4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
    But:

    1. Isn’t the way the FTPA actually works;
    2. could easily return a parliament of MPs unwilling to do it, regardless of what the Tory manifesto said;
    3. if Boris won’t, Parliament likely will;
    4. there won’t be any veto. Especially so long as revoke or referendum remains in play.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,629
    If the PM wants to leave and is prepared to leave without a deal, I fail to see how Parliament can stop it unless it is prepared to bring the PM down or revoke Article 50 unilaterally.

    Let us imagine that Boris tries to renegotiate the backstop but fails, so he wants to no deal but Parliament in mid-to-late October votes to demand the PM negotiates an extension. That must be done at European Council as happened last time.

    Let us imagine the PM then says something along the lines of the following.

    Dear Mr Juncker,

    Although Article 50 ends on 31 October and we are prepared to leave on 31 October, Parliament has required I write to you to request an extension. I do not believe you are negotiating in good faith by refusing to renegotiate the backstop, so I pledge to use that extra time to act accordingly. We will veto any European laws we can veto, vote against any bills that we can vote on, and continue to demand the agreement is renegotiated to our satisfaction. Please grant us an extension.

    Regards,
    PM Boris Johnson


    What does Macron do then? How does Parliament stop Boris from extracting a veto from Macron?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,998
    isam said:

    Quincel said:

    isam said:

    Quincel said:

    OGH is having a flutter, or a rush of blood to the head. I'm deeply skeptical of the value on this bet, but time will tell.

    What do you make of the 2k at 1.49 wanting to back Hunt to make the final 2?
    Too short to me, but being somewhat odds on is probably fair. The second spot looks highly likely to be him or Gove, with him as favourite. But uncertainty means I'd want close to evens at least.
    Someone has laid it all. I should probably had a bit before I posed the question
    ATM looks like Hunt v Johnson or Javid v Johnson to me
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,998

    IanB2 said:

    The Financial Times NAILS (no, not SeanT) it: ”there is no political advantage in grasping reality if your voters don’t.

    On day 1 that may be true. Life is longer than that, even the time in office of a PM should be in years not weeks. When voters find out in weeks that they have been lied to, what then?

    Based on experience so far, a lot of Tories start agitating for another leader (?Baker) who believes in it even MORE (!)
  • justin124 said:


    Labour vote share fell by 17%. Tories fell by 25%. The big rises were in the parties most leave and most remain. If people had things if more interest then logically they would have voted for it. I'm looking at not just this by-election, also at the Euros and the locals. Labour and Tory are increasingly disconnected and irrelevant from what voters are interested in.

    But estimates suggest that Labour would have polled circa 22% in the EU elections in the Peterborough constituency. Last week the party managed 31% - which is a fair jump in two weeks. In the context of a GE campaign and a likely turnout of 65% - 70% , I could see Labour polling circa 40% there. Ditto for the Tories.
    I very much hope you are right and I am wrong. The Euros are not the marker for what happens in a general election. But they do indicate what switching is possible. Labour absolutely will win some people back, especially vs a populist Tory.

    The difference between 22% and 31% in PBoro is turnout - people could be persuaded to come out for a by-election who stayed home in the Euro. And in that particular seat perhaps we do better with less switching away and more people holding their nose.

    Which won't matter a jot if the Tories go for no deal with a populist. BXP + Tory is more than enough to win the seat regardless of Labour. If Johnson sets out a clear stall - vote for me and get Brexit next week - that sweeps up all the right / leave votes and with it the keys to Downing Street.

    Corbyn was popular in 2017 having sucked in the young and the optimistic. Who have now seen the man behind the curtain and have gone back to the Greens / LibDems. He won't get anywhere near that height in 2019.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,479
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:



    .

    Did you expect the Peterborough result?
    Nope - I called it for BXP. And if you look at the two variables you can see why they didn't win it and how PM Boris can win an election.

    1. Accept the Leave / Remain paradigm has replaced Labour / Tory
    2. Leave voters were broadly dumping the Tories in favour of Brexit. And a few hundred more switchers would have carried it for Brexit
    3. Remain voters were broadly dumping Labour for noone/LD. And a few hundred more would have carried it for Brexit.
    4. Brexit parties carried more than half the vote, but having split their vote ended up losing the seat
    5. Imagine a PM Boris Tory pitch of "vote Tory on 24th and we leave the EU on the 31st". The leave switchers to Brexit all come home. The Lab switchers to Brexit go Tory. Thats enough votes to carry it for the Tories, almost regardless of what Labour do
    6. Labour will be advocating a "we will block no deal on 31st" position - and lose leave voters. They will also be advocating a "we negotiate a new deal and leave the EU with that" - and lose remain voters.

    If Boris goes straight to the country, he wins a majority, delivers Brexit and kills Labour
    In such an election I suspect Labour will recapture the LD/Green vote which deserted them for the EU elections - Peterborough showed some signs of that. In a GE I would be surprised if the LDs exceed 12% with the Greens on 2%.
    I don't share your view re- Remain/Leave paradigm - again Peterborough showed that voters have other concerns more relevant to their daily lives.The 2017 Election was intended to be a Brexit focussed campaign - yet was anything but. I would expect the same to happen again - most people are sick to death of Brexit.
    Labour vote share fell by 17%. Tories fell by 25%. The big rises were in the parties most leave and most remain. If people had things if more interest then logically they would have voted for it. I'm looking at not just this by-election, also at the Euros and the locals. Labour and Tory are increasingly disconnected and irrelevant from what voters are interested in.
    But estimates suggest that Labour would have polled circa 22% in the EU elections in the Peterborough constituency. Last week the party managed 31% - which is a fair jump in two weeks. In the context of a GE campaign and a likely turnout of 65% - 70% , I could see Labour polling circa 40% there. Ditto for the Tories.
    All we can say is that Peterborough marked the end of the May era. It looks a very specific (and outdated) data point. We can only speculate what the result would have been had Boris been installed as PM first.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,629
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal

    He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promises
    What promise is impossible?
    No deal on 31st October
    Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.

    Possible ways.

    1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
    2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
    3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
    4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
    But:

    1. Isn’t the way the FTPA actually works;
    2. could easily return a parliament of MPs unwilling to do it, regardless of what the Tory manifesto said;
    3. if Boris won’t, Parliament likely will;
    4. there won’t be any veto. Especially so long as revoke or referendum remains in play.
    1 can be. May has already shown FTPA can be got around by calling an early election (since opposition is honour bound to back the call and government MPs are whipped to do so). So call it a Confidence motion, making it clear that if the vote fails you will subsequently call an early election with the whip removed from any rebels.
    2: Could do. Said possibilities not certainty.
    3: See my subsequent post. Parliament can tell Boris to request it but what happens then is out of there hands.
    4: Boris could try and provoke a veto. Revoke comes into play most if there is a veto.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,734
    edited June 2019

    (ii) is me.

    From which we conclude that you are no better qualified to move into 10 Downing Street than Boris Johnson is.

    Which is not a problem. You are not running.

    Trouble is ...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,286

    Mr F, Not a whole group. I used the word "most". Mr Thompson said mockery is a perfectly valid tool. I find mockery of Brexit as very easy as it is the most fucking stupid venture anyone has ever supported. It is the philosophy of the moron, and 52% of the population took leave of their senses, though it doesn't necessarily mean they are all morons in other spheres of their lives. On that subject, and perhaps that alone, they should be mocked, and mocked continuously for their stupidity. Mr Thompson and his obsession with war should be at the front of the queue for this well deserved mockery. I fart in his general direction.

    I object to your mockery and am going to cry myself to sleep after suffering your abuses.

    Oh wait a second. No I'm not three years old and can live with your mockery. Carry on.
    You aren’t?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 10,530
    When is somebody going to mention Darius Guppy and Johnson's past links to criminal fraternity?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,785
    kinabalu said:

    Fenster said:

    I like Rory Stewart and I'm sure his style of polite, lyrical engagement is being well received.

    But his chances of becoming Tory leader are zilch because even stupid Tories know that if he were their leader - in the current unpredictable Brexit climate - the party would be torn apart and would cease to exist in its current form.

    As nice as he is there'd be no political sense to it.

    I agree. He is the best 25/1 lay that I have come across for quite some time. He has (literally) no chance of winning this contest.
    A 'no hoper'. Wasn't Corbyn one of them?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,734

    Greetings, Rory! We have been expecting you... :)

    :smile:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,629

    HYUFD said:

    Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal

    He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promises
    What promise is impossible?
    No deal on 31st October
    Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.

    Possible ways.

    1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
    2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
    3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
    4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
    How do you make something a confidence motion in the post-FTPA era?
    Say that you are viewing this as a matter of confidence and if the vote fails you are tabling an early election motion the next day and will whip the party to vote in favour of the early election. Whip will be removed from anyone who rebels in either vote.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    I look forward to all the rebuttals from the death cult:

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,134

    If the PM wants to leave and is prepared to leave without a deal, I fail to see how Parliament can stop it unless it is prepared to bring the PM down or revoke Article 50 unilaterally.

    Let us imagine that Boris tries to renegotiate the backstop but fails, so he wants to no deal but Parliament in mid-to-late October votes to demand the PM negotiates an extension. That must be done at European Council as happened last time.

    Let us imagine the PM then says something along the lines of the following.

    Dear Mr Juncker,

    Although Article 50 ends on 31 October and we are prepared to leave on 31 October, Parliament has required I write to you to request an extension. I do not believe you are negotiating in good faith by refusing to renegotiate the backstop, so I pledge to use that extra time to act accordingly. We will veto any European laws we can veto, vote against any bills that we can vote on, and continue to demand the agreement is renegotiated to our satisfaction. Please grant us an extension.

    Regards,
    PM Boris Johnson


    What does Macron do then? How does Parliament stop Boris from extracting a veto from Macron?

    The obvious solution is that the EU grants a two week extension so parliament can replace the prime minister.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,669

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    here's a tip, to avoid making an "idiot" of yourself, try replacing the word "Islam" with the word "Judaism" or the world "muslims" with the word "jews" in any statement to see how it sounds, it should help you with your blindspot.
    Indeed and just as it is offence to Muslims to suggest Islam demands women not be seen and be covered up from head to toe, it would be equally offensive to Jews to suggest Judaism demands it too...
    Which might be a reasonable point to make if you didn't do so by describing people as 'letterboxes', and adding that's it's important to say what you mean.
    They do look like letterboxes.

    Mockery is a perfectly valid tool. We should mock misogynistic behaviour.
    Strange letterboxes in your part of the world. In England ours are red and cylindrical.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,249

    kinabalu said:

    Fenster said:

    I like Rory Stewart and I'm sure his style of polite, lyrical engagement is being well received.

    But his chances of becoming Tory leader are zilch because even stupid Tories know that if he were their leader - in the current unpredictable Brexit climate - the party would be torn apart and would cease to exist in its current form.

    As nice as he is there'd be no political sense to it.

    I agree. He is the best 25/1 lay that I have come across for quite some time. He has (literally) no chance of winning this contest.
    A 'no hoper'. Wasn't Corbyn one of them?
    Different rules. Rory needs something big to change in the next 7 days or he's out. 7 days before the members ballot Corbyn wasn't a no hoper.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,128

    HYUFD said:

    Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal

    He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promises
    What promise is impossible?
    No deal on 31st October
    Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.

    Possible ways.

    1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
    2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
    3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
    4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
    How do you make something a confidence motion in the post-FTPA era?
    Say that you are viewing this as a matter of confidence and if the vote fails you are tabling an early election motion the next day and will whip the party to vote in favour of the early election. Whip will be removed from anyone who rebels in either vote.
    The election motion requites a 2/3 majority so that would be a completely pointless manoeuvre.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,629

    I look forward to all the rebuttals from the death cult:

    6 to 8 months to prepare and we have had over 30 months come Halloween. Do the maths.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,998
    edited June 2019

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal

    He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promises
    What promise is impossible?
    No deal on 31st October
    Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.

    Possible ways.

    1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
    2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
    3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
    4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
    But:

    1. Isn’t the way the FTPA actually works;
    2. could easily return a parliament of MPs unwilling to do it, regardless of what the Tory manifesto said;
    3. if Boris won’t, Parliament likely will;
    4. there won’t be any veto. Especially so long as revoke or referendum remains in play.
    1 can be. May has already shown FTPA can be got around by calling an early election (since opposition is honour bound to back the call and government MPs are whipped to do so). So call it a Confidence motion, making it clear that if the vote fails you will subsequently call an early election with the whip removed from any rebels.
    2: Could do. Said possibilities not certainty.
    3: See my subsequent post. Parliament can tell Boris to request it but what happens then is out of there hands.
    4: Boris could try and provoke a veto. Revoke comes into play most if there is a veto.
    Clutching at straws.

    The only two end states are: A) Remain, B ) Leave under the WA, or something close

    The so-called “no deal” exit is simply an alternative route of arriving at May’s WA after an intervening period of chaos followed by the Tories begging for the terms that are already on offer.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,333
    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,998
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    here's a tip, to avoid making an "idiot" of yourself, try replacing the word "Islam" with the word "Judaism" or the world "muslims" with the word "jews" in any statement to see how it sounds, it should help you with your blindspot.
    Indeed and just as it is offence to Muslims to suggest Islam demands women not be seen and be covered up from head to toe, it would be equally offensive to Jews to suggest Judaism demands it too...
    Which might be a reasonable point to make if you didn't do so by describing people as 'letterboxes', and adding that's it's important to say what you mean.
    They do look like letterboxes.

    Mockery is a perfectly valid tool. We should mock misogynistic behaviour.
    Strange letterboxes in your part of the world. In England ours are red and cylindrical.
    Poor show, Foxy. Postbox v Letterbox.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 10,530

    justin124 said:


    Labour vote share fell by 17%. Tories fell by 25%. The big rises were in the parties most leave and most remain. If people had things if more interest then logically they would have voted for it. I'm looking at not just this by-election, also at the Euros and the locals. Labour and Tory are increasingly disconnected and irrelevant from what voters are interested in.

    But estimates suggest that Labour would have polled circa 22% in the EU elections in the Peterborough constituency. Last week the party managed 31% - which is a fair jump in two weeks. In the context of a GE campaign and a likely turnout of 65% - 70% , I could see Labour polling circa 40% there. Ditto for the Tories.
    I very much hope you are right and I am wrong. The Euros are not the marker for what happens in a general election. But they do indicate what switching is possible. Labour absolutely will win some people back, especially vs a populist Tory.

    The difference between 22% and 31% in PBoro is turnout - people could be persuaded to come out for a by-election who stayed home in the Euro. And in that particular seat perhaps we do better with less switching away and more people holding their nose.

    Which won't matter a jot if the Tories go for no deal with a populist. BXP + Tory is more than enough to win the seat regardless of Labour. If Johnson sets out a clear stall - vote for me and get Brexit next week - that sweeps up all the right / leave votes and with it the keys to Downing Street.

    Corbyn was popular in 2017 having sucked in the young and the optimistic. Who have now seen the man behind the curtain and have gone back to the Greens / LibDems. He won't get anywhere near that height in 2019.

    Corbyn was not exactly popular in early 2017. The Copeland by election at the end of February was far more of a disaster for Labour than Peterborough last week - Stoke on Trent held on the same day was not very good either.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,734

    A 'no hoper'. Wasn't Corbyn one of them?

    He was. But IMO a centre ground One Nation Remainer who has ruled out No Deal simply cannot win this Tory contest. Maybe next time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,669
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    One of the most depressing things about the possibility of Boris Johnson as PM is he is openly racist, sexist and homophobic. And doubly depressing that a lot of people don't seem to be that bothered by this.

    take this not so well known example:
    'In 2001, Johnson wrote in his book Friends, Voters, Countrymen that “if gay marriage was OK – and I was uncertain on the issue – then I saw no reason in principle why a union should not be consecrated between three men, as well as two men, or indeed three men and a dog”.'

    from this list:
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

    Bit more than 'not bothered'. Approving. The Trump effect. Toxic. Potent. Pervasive. Insidious. Far-reaching.

    It was NOT "Muslim Women" - it was "Muslim women wot wear the veil".
    Either way, Johnson thinks it's ok for Johnson to tell ethnic minority women what to wear.
    Who knew that Islam was an ethnicity?

    Idiot.
    here's a tip, to avoid making an "idiot" of yourself, try replacing the word "Islam" with the word "Judaism" or the world "muslims" with the word "jews" in any statement to see how it sounds, it should help you with your blindspot.
    Indeed and just as it is offence to Muslims to suggest Islam demands women not be seen and be covered up from head to toe, it would be equally offensive to Jews to suggest Judaism demands it too...
    Which might be a reasonable point to make if you didn't do so by describing people as 'letterboxes', and adding that's it's important to say what you mean.
    They do look like letterboxes.

    Mockery is a perfectly valid tool. We should mock misogynistic behaviour.
    Strange letterboxes in your part of the world. In England ours are red and cylindrical.
    Poor show, Foxy. Postbox v Letterbox.
    So Muslim women look like doors?!?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265

    I look forward to all the rebuttals from the death cult:

    6 to 8 months to prepare and we have had over 30 months come Halloween. Do the maths.
    So you want Britain to crash out of the EU when it is unprepared, including on stockpiles of medicine?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 29,376
    edited June 2019

    Britain isn't a confederation.

    We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.

    So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?
    No. The province can choose to leave the UK at will or remain in the UK at will.

    The province can also elect representatives to Parliamentary bodies that shape its laws and make decisions. Except it can't if the backstop goes through, then it will be a colony.
    FPT

    Just to understand your issues with the back stop:

    1. The legitimacy of NI being subject to regulations they have no input in shaping
    2. The concern about some form of regulatory checks between GB and NI

    Both are reasonable and valid concerns. Couldn’t they be resolved by:

    1. Allowing NI to elect MEPs while the backstop is in force*
    2. Asking the people of NI to choose between No Deal & a hard border and Deal with limited checks between them and GB? **

    * arguably GB should also elect MEPs while the U.K.-wide backstop is in force

    ** NB this is a recognition of the unique circumstances of NI and not a concession on a U.K.-wide second referendum so don’t waste OGH’s server storage
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,629

    HYUFD said:

    Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal

    He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promises
    What promise is impossible?
    No deal on 31st October
    Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.

    Possible ways.

    1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
    2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
    3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
    4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
    How do you make something a confidence motion in the post-FTPA era?
    Say that you are viewing this as a matter of confidence and if the vote fails you are tabling an early election motion the next day and will whip the party to vote in favour of the early election. Whip will be removed from anyone who rebels in either vote.
    The election motion requites a 2/3 majority so that would be a completely pointless manoeuvre.
    Corbyn would whip in favour, any Labour MPs who broke that whip would have their whip removed.

    SNP and DUP probably opposed but its moot.

    434 = 2/3rds of 650 (even not taking into account speakers and Sinn Fein).

    Tory and Labour alone have 560
  • eekeek Posts: 9,626
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal

    He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promises
    What promise is impossible?
    No deal on 31st October
    Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.

    Possible ways.

    1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
    2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
    3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
    4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
    How do you make something a confidence motion in the post-FTPA era?
    Say that you are viewing this as a matter of confidence and if the vote fails you are tabling an early election motion the next day and will whip the party to vote in favour of the early election. Whip will be removed from anyone who rebels in either vote.
    The election motion requites a 2/3 majority so that would be a completely pointless manoeuvre.
    Corbyn would whip in favour, any Labour MPs who broke that whip would have their whip removed.

    SNP and DUP probably opposed but its moot.

    434 = 2/3rds of 650 (even not taking into account speakers and Sinn Fein).

    Tory and Labour alone have 560
    Why would Labour whip in favour of an immediate election. This is one of the few times when it would be politically and electorally better to ensure a November election and there would be plausible reasons to do so - for the entertainment of watching Boris fail to deliver on October 31st if nothing else...
This discussion has been closed.