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  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,617

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Boris has reached 85 public endorsements, with 73 still to declare.

    What are the odds on him getting less than 85 actual votes on Thursday?!
    It would make Tory MPs look like a bunch of liars if that happens. That's one of the reasons I've been taking a keen interest in the public endorsements.
    DD experienced a similar drop off in terms of real support back in 2005. What you say and what you do in the privacy of the voting booth are two very different things.
    Is lying about a liar a white lie though? Boris doesn't believe in Truth. Live by the fib, die by the fib. Jolly japes, hope it comes to pass.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 7,985
    Guardian reports at least 5 Tories vote Aye.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,691

    TOPPING said:

    JackW said:

    HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.

    Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.

    If he wont be a Tory at an ensuing election. If he defects to Lib Dems do you think he would hold his seat or would the Tories regain it?
    Country before Party? Alien for a Leaver the concept but it does happen.
    People on both sides of the divide are capable of having principles. The constant smearing helps no-one.

    Grieve seems to be enjoying grandstanding rather too much for my liking. I don't care for anyone who postures in that way.
    Francois more your cup of Rosie is it?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,490
    dixiedean said:

    Guardian reports at least 5 Tories vote Aye.

    Tory scum.

    :D
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 9,649
    Government wins
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,082
    Opposition loss 298 v 309
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,146
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Guardian reports at least 5 Tories vote Aye.

    Tory scum.

    :D
    Clarke and Grieve plus who?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Good win for May - 10 more years.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,570
    HA HA. Grieve’s antics today almost certainly get him deselected, but then he lost the vote.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,697
    There seems to be an assumption in many comments here that, if Boris or another leader engineers an election before October 31st, the Brexit Party would be neutralised into irrelevance. That sounds like cloud-cuckoo land to me. Admittedly they'd do much more damage after October 31st, but that doesn't mean they'd do no damage before.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,303
    IanB2 said:

    Opposition loss 298 v 309

    I’m quite surprised actually, though if we get to the pointy end in September/October I suspect the numbers would sufficiently shift.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,490

    Government wins

    I do love our sovereign Parliament. :smiley:
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sajid Javid up shortly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,490

    IanB2 said:

    Opposition loss 298 v 309

    I’m quite surprised actually, though if we get to the pointy end in September/October I suspect the numbers would sufficiently shift.
    Can't be voted on again, surely? Or is Bercow only consistent in his anti-Brexit posturing?
  • eekeek Posts: 9,225

    There seems to be an assumption in many comments here that, if Boris or another leader engineers an election before October 31st, the Brexit Party would be neutralised into irrelevance. That sounds like cloud-cuckoo land to me. Admittedly they'd do much more damage after October 31st, but that doesn't mean they'd do no damage before.

    Before October 31st the damage will be enough for there to be another hung parliament (unless Boris can get Nigel not to stand anywhere) - after October 31st the damage will be existentially...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sandpit said:

    HA HA. Grieve’s antics today almost certainly get him deselected, but then he lost the vote.

    He could join the Lib Dem’s or something.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,620
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    JackW said:

    HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.

    Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.

    If he wont be a Tory at an ensuing election. If he defects to Lib Dems do you think he would hold his seat or would the Tories regain it?
    Country before Party? Alien for a Leaver the concept but it does happen.
    People on both sides of the divide are capable of having principles. The constant smearing helps no-one.

    Grieve seems to be enjoying grandstanding rather too much for my liking. I don't care for anyone who postures in that way.
    Francois more your cup of Rosie is it?
    Not at all. Again with the smearing.

    I am a remain voter - but one with deep reservations about the direction of the EU in terms of the legal systems it is allowing to develop.

    I would not vote remain now. But I am far, far, far from being an ERG type.

    I am someone who is very happy to be European in the cultural and geographical meaning of that work. I just don't feel comfortable with the way the EU has developed. And yes, I believed the economic arguments during the referendum - which is what swayed me at the last minute.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,969
    Mr. Twelve, I also thought the Government would lose that vote.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,665
    AndyJS said:

    JackW said:

    HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.

    His association can't re-adopt him in those circumstances. surely?
    I assume he's working on the theory that he's not going to be reselected anyway
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The opposition to no deal in the Commons is much weaker than claimed. Maybe Johnson can push it through without an election.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Get prepared. No Deal is no longer a possibility but a distinct probability. I cannot see a way out of this impasse where several Labour MPs are voting with the Tories.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,225

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    JackW said:

    HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.

    Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.

    If he wont be a Tory at an ensuing election. If he defects to Lib Dems do you think he would hold his seat or would the Tories regain it?
    Country before Party? Alien for a Leaver the concept but it does happen.
    People on both sides of the divide are capable of having principles. The constant smearing helps no-one.

    Grieve seems to be enjoying grandstanding rather too much for my liking. I don't care for anyone who postures in that way.
    Francois more your cup of Rosie is it?
    Not at all. Again with the smearing.

    I am a remain voter - but one with deep reservations about the direction of the EU in terms of the legal systems it is allowing to develop.

    I would not vote remain now. But I am far, far, far from being an ERG type.

    I am someone who is very happy to be European in the cultural and geographical meaning of that work. I just don't feel comfortable with the way the EU has developed. And yes, I believed the economic arguments during the referendum - which is what swayed me at the last minute.
    So basically you cancel me out. I voted Leave as the Euro will fall apart at some point and ideally we should be as far away from the EU as possible when that occurs.

    However the implementation has been so bad that to be honest its safer to be in the EU then outside it given the quality of our politicians....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,034

    I am a remain voter - but one with deep reservations about the direction of the EU in terms of the legal systems it is allowing to develop.

    What do you mean by "the legal systems it is allowing to develop"?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,082
    Looks to me like there were some absentees on the opposition side, and whoever called the vote quickly knew what they were doing
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,561
    A lot of abstentions, it seems. I doubt there will be next time.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,613

    A lot of abstentions, it seems. I doubt there will be next time.

    I thought this was supposed to be the last ever time to get No Deal off the table?

    Until the next time... ;)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,509

    There seems to be an assumption in many comments here that, if Boris or another leader engineers an election before October 31st, the Brexit Party would be neutralised into irrelevance. That sounds like cloud-cuckoo land to me. Admittedly they'd do much more damage after October 31st, but that doesn't mean they'd do no damage before.

    There also seems to be an assumption that Johnson will be able to fight an election on a policy of No Deal without causing a significant split in the Tory party with anti-No-Deal Conservatives standing against the official candidates.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,024
    JackW said:

    Sajid Javid up shortly.

    Cant see the membership voting for him myself
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,835
    This was a vote on whether parliament wanted the opposition parties plus Tory Europhiles to use parliamentary time to mess about coming up with futile ways to try and stop no deal whilst offering no alternative to fill the void. It wasn't an endorsement of no deal.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,225

    A lot of abstentions, it seems. I doubt there will be next time.

    abstentions or just MPs unable to be there in time. Remember Boles had to fly back at zero notice to vote...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 35,609
    edited June 2019
    TGOHF said:

    Good win for May - 10 more years.

    We could do a lot worse
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,897


    That is overthinking it. Is Corbyn going to say he would rather have a Tory Brexit than an election?

    He's spent the last two years working pretty hard towards it.
    He's spent 2 years saying "I want another election, I want another election". If the PM calls for an election the idea he could say "actually no thanks" is ludicrous.
    It is not ludicrous. The Tories are heading for a car crash either way in October why would the opposition want to let them off the hook. Corbyn maybe desperate to get into the driving seat but he doesn't want to be sitting there on October 31st.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,620

    I am a remain voter - but one with deep reservations about the direction of the EU in terms of the legal systems it is allowing to develop.

    What do you mean by "the legal systems it is allowing to develop"?
    I am not happy with the way the European courts are allowing activist judges to expand their influence over our ability to set our own laws - and yes, I do acknowledge that part of that is the ECHR and part of it is ECJ and so only, in part, related to our direct relationship with the EU.

    But I am uncomfortable how things have developed under those courts and those relationships need to be redefined.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,697
    Chris said:

    There also seems to be an assumption that Johnson will be able to fight an election on a policy of No Deal without causing a significant split in the Tory party with anti-No-Deal Conservatives standing against the official candidates.

    Yep, that too. And he'd lose a lot of votes to the LibDems or even Labour.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    So who are the Red Tories ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,691

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    JackW said:

    HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.

    Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.

    If he wont be a Tory at an ensuing election. If he defects to Lib Dems do you think he would hold his seat or would the Tories regain it?
    Country before Party? Alien for a Leaver the concept but it does happen.
    People on both sides of the divide are capable of having principles. The constant smearing helps no-one.

    Grieve seems to be enjoying grandstanding rather too much for my liking. I don't care for anyone who postures in that way.
    Francois more your cup of Rosie is it?
    Not at all. Again with the smearing.

    I am a remain voter - but one with deep reservations about the direction of the EU in terms of the legal systems it is allowing to develop.

    I would not vote remain now. But I am far, far, far from being an ERG type.

    I am someone who is very happy to be European in the cultural and geographical meaning of that work. I just don't feel comfortable with the way the EU has developed. And yes, I believed the economic arguments during the referendum - which is what swayed me at the last minute.
    LOL so saying you are a fan of Mark Francois is a smear! So we do agree on these matters although I am disappointed that you should feel the need to insult him.

    Not that I want to re-run the debate but what about the EU did you dislike?
  • eekeek Posts: 9,225

    JackW said:

    Sajid Javid up shortly.

    Cant see the membership voting for him myself
    +1 given the avatar of some Tory members on here - I would expect to see rivers of blood before he voted for someone of none anglo saxon descent...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,034

    I am a remain voter - but one with deep reservations about the direction of the EU in terms of the legal systems it is allowing to develop.

    What do you mean by "the legal systems it is allowing to develop"?
    I am not happy with the way the European courts are allowing activist judges to expand their influence over our ability to set our own laws - and yes, I do acknowledge that part of that is the ECHR and part of it is ECJ and so only, in part, related to our direct relationship with the EU.

    But I am uncomfortable how things have developed under those courts and those relationships need to be redefined.
    Can you give any example of ECJ judicial activism? I think even @Richard_Tyndall would disagree with you on that.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,697
    Great line from Ruth Davidson introducing Javid:

    "The Conservatives have always done well with a leader brought up above the shop."
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,303
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Opposition loss 298 v 309

    I’m quite surprised actually, though if we get to the pointy end in September/October I suspect the numbers would sufficiently shift.
    Can't be voted on again, surely? Or is Bercow only consistent in his anti-Brexit posturing?
    I’m not sure the motion would be substantially the same given that it was simply to take control of the parliamentary timetable. If it had been a defeat on legislation that would have sought to block no deal then yes, I’d agree.

    It seems to me though that we are possibly getting to a place where Mays deal + some cosmetic tweaks to the backstop might get through. Whether the EU will put that on the table remains to be seen though.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,561

    Chris said:

    There also seems to be an assumption that Johnson will be able to fight an election on a policy of No Deal without causing a significant split in the Tory party with anti-No-Deal Conservatives standing against the official candidates.

    Yep, that too. And he'd lose a lot of votes to the LibDems or even Labour.

    Doesn't today's vote make a GE much less likely? MPs have given Johnson the time and space he says he needs to deliver the deal he has promised. Of course, if he fails to deliver that deal, MPs can make an assessment as to whether crashing out is in the UK's interests or not.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,691
    If I were a citizen I would be quite irritated at all these cabinet ministers spending time launching their party leadership bids instead of, you know, running the country.

    Oh wait I am and I am.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pakistan collapsing at Taunton.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,225
    OllyT said:


    That is overthinking it. Is Corbyn going to say he would rather have a Tory Brexit than an election?

    He's spent the last two years working pretty hard towards it.
    He's spent 2 years saying "I want another election, I want another election". If the PM calls for an election the idea he could say "actually no thanks" is ludicrous.
    It is not ludicrous. The Tories are heading for a car crash either way in October why would the opposition want to let them off the hook. Corbyn maybe desperate to get into the driving seat but he doesn't want to be sitting there on October 31st.
    Why have your name attached to the disaster when you can sit on the sidelines but help it along...

    Equally, unless Boris is elected in July and goes for an election immediately it's easy to argue that the time frame doesn't allow an election to occur - remember you need 2 weeks between an election result and Parliament actually sitting so the latest an election could be held is something like October 10th.

    Once September comes around it would be perfectly legitimate to claim there isn't time within the timeframe available to hold an election. However, were you to get A50 extended to December I would be happy for an election. You move Boris.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,697

    Doesn't today's vote make a GE much less likely? MPs have given Johnson the time and space he says he needs to deliver the deal he has promised. Of course, if he fails to deliver that deal, MPs can make an assessment as to whether crashing out is in the UK's interests or not.

    That's probably right.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,691

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Opposition loss 298 v 309

    I’m quite surprised actually, though if we get to the pointy end in September/October I suspect the numbers would sufficiently shift.
    Can't be voted on again, surely? Or is Bercow only consistent in his anti-Brexit posturing?
    I’m not sure the motion would be substantially the same given that it was simply to take control of the parliamentary timetable. If it had been a defeat on legislation that would have sought to block no deal then yes, I’d agree.

    It seems to me though that we are possibly getting to a place where Mays deal + some cosmetic tweaks to the backstop might get through. Whether the EU will put that on the table remains to be seen though.
    It remains the only gig in town. Whoever's hand is on tiller. I'm sure the EU will be accommodating with the PD.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Opposition loss 298 v 309

    I’m quite surprised actually, though if we get to the pointy end in September/October I suspect the numbers would sufficiently shift.
    Can't be voted on again, surely? Or is Bercow only consistent in his anti-Brexit posturing?
    I’m not sure the motion would be substantially the same given that it was simply to take control of the parliamentary timetable. If it had been a defeat on legislation that would have sought to block no deal then yes, I’d agree.

    It seems to me though that we are possibly getting to a place where Mays deal + some cosmetic tweaks to the backstop might get through. Whether the EU will put that on the table remains to be seen though.
    That would be truly unfair on May.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,303

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Opposition loss 298 v 309

    I’m quite surprised actually, though if we get to the pointy end in September/October I suspect the numbers would sufficiently shift.
    Can't be voted on again, surely? Or is Bercow only consistent in his anti-Brexit posturing?
    I’m not sure the motion would be substantially the same given that it was simply to take control of the parliamentary timetable. If it had been a defeat on legislation that would have sought to block no deal then yes, I’d agree.

    It seems to me though that we are possibly getting to a place where Mays deal + some cosmetic tweaks to the backstop might get through. Whether the EU will put that on the table remains to be seen though.
    That would be truly unfair on May.
    It would, but politics is an unfair game.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,561

    Doesn't today's vote make a GE much less likely? MPs have given Johnson the time and space he says he needs to deliver the deal he has promised. Of course, if he fails to deliver that deal, MPs can make an assessment as to whether crashing out is in the UK's interests or not.

    That's probably right.

    I suspect it also takes a prorogue off the table.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,697

    I suspect it also takes a prorogue off the table.

    I think that's off the table anyway.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,024
    "Not the same old insiders with the same old school ties"
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,691
    Oh and for better or worse (for the Labour Party) there's no way Jezza can not agree to a GE. Although as has been pointed out this looks less likely immediately.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,225

    Doesn't today's vote make a GE much less likely? MPs have given Johnson the time and space he says he needs to deliver the deal he has promised. Of course, if he fails to deliver that deal, MPs can make an assessment as to whether crashing out is in the UK's interests or not.

    That's probably right.
    Writing my comment below I think the timing of this leadership contest makes a general election impossible.

    You need 5 weeks for an election and it takes 2 weeks roughly to swear MPs in. You then need a vote for the queen's speech so that adds another week.

    So to get any legislation through a new Parliament the election probably needs to be in September.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,697
    eek said:

    Doesn't today's vote make a GE much less likely? MPs have given Johnson the time and space he says he needs to deliver the deal he has promised. Of course, if he fails to deliver that deal, MPs can make an assessment as to whether crashing out is in the UK's interests or not.

    That's probably right.
    Writing my comment below I think the timing of this leadership contest makes a general election impossible.

    You need 5 weeks for an election and it takes 2 weeks roughly to swear MPs in. You then need a vote for the queen's speech so that adds another week.

    So to get any legislation through a new Parliament the election probably needs to be in September.
    Yes, it's certainly incredibly tight, and may not be practical at all. Quite apart from anything else, there's a lot of legislation that would be absolutely essential in the event of an imminent no-deal crash out. That's why I keep saying Boris and some of the others are bonkers to make a fetish out of the 31st October.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,607
    Javid doing quite well. Better than I expected. Strong on growth, strong on public services.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,561

    I suspect it also takes a prorogue off the table.

    I think that's off the table anyway.

    True.

    10 Tories voted with Labour today. That's before the leadership election is done and the new government is formed. If I were a No Dealer I would not be taking much heart from today's vote. Apparently seven Labour MPs voted against, too. I am not sure they would do so again if they were then voting for No Deal.

  • eekeek Posts: 9,225
    TOPPING said:

    Oh and for better or worse (for the Labour Party) there's no way Jezza can not agree to a GE. Although as has been pointed out this looks less likely immediately.

    You can if the timing doesn't work and looking at the time frame unless an election is called in July for September it really doesn't work...
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Chris said:

    In the event that No Deal happens, and goes badly wrong, how many deaths definitely attributable to disruption of medical supplies could the prime minister survive?

    You should watch the current BBC series Years and Years with Emma Thompson playing a future Populist PM who seems to be based on Katie Hopkins. It’s a future post Brexit world where the EU seems to have collapsed and the poor and homeless have been ‘disappeared’ to ‘secure locations’.

    You would positively hyperventilate!

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,691
    edited June 2019
    IDS talking absolute bollocks on PM.

    He wants to negotiate a FTA while in some kind of implementation period on WTO terms.

    So why on earth didn't he support the WA which would have allowed us to do that but without the WTO bit (using the discredited Article 24).

    His stupidity defies belief. Worse, he thinks we are as stupid as he is.

    Which is why of course we will get the WA.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,082
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Opposition loss 298 v 309

    I’m quite surprised actually, though if we get to the pointy end in September/October I suspect the numbers would sufficiently shift.
    Can't be voted on again, surely? Or is Bercow only consistent in his anti-Brexit posturing?
    Of course. Today's motion was about dedicating 25 June to a Brexit related motion. A future proposition - should the opportunity arise - to devote a different slice of parliamentary time to a Brexit related motion is a different proposal.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,225

    eek said:

    Doesn't today's vote make a GE much less likely? MPs have given Johnson the time and space he says he needs to deliver the deal he has promised. Of course, if he fails to deliver that deal, MPs can make an assessment as to whether crashing out is in the UK's interests or not.

    That's probably right.
    Writing my comment below I think the timing of this leadership contest makes a general election impossible.

    You need 5 weeks for an election and it takes 2 weeks roughly to swear MPs in. You then need a vote for the queen's speech so that adds another week.

    So to get any legislation through a new Parliament the election probably needs to be in September.
    Yes, it's certainly incredibly tight, and may not be practical at all. Quite apart from anything else, there's a lot of legislation that would be absolutely essential in the event of an imminent no-deal crash out. That's why I keep saying Boris and some of the others are bonkers to make a fetish out of the 31st October.
    The damage there has however already been done.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,607
    I wouldn't go this far, but pretty impressive:

  • eekeek Posts: 9,225

    eek said:

    Doesn't today's vote make a GE much less likely? MPs have given Johnson the time and space he says he needs to deliver the deal he has promised. Of course, if he fails to deliver that deal, MPs can make an assessment as to whether crashing out is in the UK's interests or not.

    That's probably right.
    Writing my comment below I think the timing of this leadership contest makes a general election impossible.

    You need 5 weeks for an election and it takes 2 weeks roughly to swear MPs in. You then need a vote for the queen's speech so that adds another week.

    So to get any legislation through a new Parliament the election probably needs to be in September.
    Yes, it's certainly incredibly tight, and may not be practical at all. Quite apart from anything else, there's a lot of legislation that would be absolutely essential in the event of an imminent no-deal crash out. That's why I keep saying Boris and some of the others are bonkers to make a fetish out of the 31st October.
    So basically you need an election on September 12th - when remarkably enough I'm on holiday...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,570
    AndyJS said:

    Pakistan collapsing at Taunton.

    I’m all for betting on cricket, but no way I’m getting involved in games involving Pakistan.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,994
    Probably best for Boris to keep the Remainers in the tent. He won't want them causing trouble on the backbenches. Moreover, they'll act as a useful firewall, with the Ultras blaming the europhile rotters in the Cabinet for the collapse of his Brexit strategy rather than him.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,691
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Oh and for better or worse (for the Labour Party) there's no way Jezza can not agree to a GE. Although as has been pointed out this looks less likely immediately.

    You can if the timing doesn't work and looking at the time frame unless an election is called in July for September it really doesn't work...
    He must always be up for it. It has been the only coherent Labour Party line throughout.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    I suspect it also takes a prorogue off the table.

    I think that's off the table anyway.

    True.

    10 Tories voted with Labour today. That's before the leadership election is done and the new government is formed. If I were a No Dealer I would not be taking much heart from today's vote. Apparently seven Labour MPs voted against, too. I am not sure they would do so again if they were then voting for No Deal.

    I am afraid there are more than 7 potential Red Tories.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,082
    So who were the missing opposition MPs?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Looks plausible:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/12/boris-johnson-brexit-general-election

    Boris may well think his best shot is a honeymoon election, running against the supposed spectres of the Commission on the one hand and Corbyn on the other.
    Then he gets his majority of 170 and is free to do...

    what?

    It's a huge risk for him. Not least because Labour would undoubtedly include a referendum with a Remain option in its manifesto if Johnson was looking to get a a mandate for No Deal.

    You think Corbyn will go for a referendum? Aww bless. Touching
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,619
    brendan16 said:

    Chris said:

    In the event that No Deal happens, and goes badly wrong, how many deaths definitely attributable to disruption of medical supplies could the prime minister survive?

    You should watch the current BBC series Years and Years with Emma Thompson playing a future Populist PM who seems to be based on Katie Hopkins. It’s a future post Brexit world where the EU seems to have collapsed and the poor and homeless have been ‘disappeared’ to ‘secure locations’.

    You would positively hyperventilate!

    It's a great series - scary though!
  • eekeek Posts: 9,225
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Oh and for better or worse (for the Labour Party) there's no way Jezza can not agree to a GE. Although as has been pointed out this looks less likely immediately.

    You can if the timing doesn't work and looking at the time frame unless an election is called in July for September it really doesn't work...
    He must always be up for it. It has been the only coherent Labour Party line throughout.
    So he would agree a general election on October 31st?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,024
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pakistan collapsing at Taunton.

    I’m all for betting on cricket, but no way I’m getting involved in games involving Pakistan.
    Brilliant with cash out 10/1 5 mins ago now 4/1
  • eekeek Posts: 9,225

    Probably best for Boris to keep the Remainers in the tent. He won't want them causing trouble on the backbenches. Moreover, they'll act as a useful firewall, with the Ultras blaming the europhile rotters in the Cabinet for the collapse of his Brexit strategy rather than him.
    What's Hammond and Gauke got to lose if Gauke is no confidenced and Hammond is retiring...
  • eekeek Posts: 9,225
    edited June 2019
    Byronic said:

    Looks plausible:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/12/boris-johnson-brexit-general-election

    Boris may well think his best shot is a honeymoon election, running against the supposed spectres of the Commission on the one hand and Corbyn on the other.
    Then he gets his majority of 170 and is free to do...

    what?

    It's a huge risk for him. Not least because Labour would undoubtedly include a referendum with a Remain option in its manifesto if Johnson was looking to get a a mandate for No Deal.

    You think Corbyn will go for a referendum? Aww bless. Touching
    Corbyn needs to shore up the remain side of things without destroying the northern seats. For him and Labour a referendum is probably the least worst option...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,691
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Oh and for better or worse (for the Labour Party) there's no way Jezza can not agree to a GE. Although as has been pointed out this looks less likely immediately.

    You can if the timing doesn't work and looking at the time frame unless an election is called in July for September it really doesn't work...
    He must always be up for it. It has been the only coherent Labour Party line throughout.
    So he would agree a general election on October 31st?
    I think so yes. And he would fight it on the Cons being frit and he would no doubt announce he had pre-agreed something with the EU.

    Who is nominally in charge when parliament breaks up?
  • eekeek Posts: 9,225
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Oh and for better or worse (for the Labour Party) there's no way Jezza can not agree to a GE. Although as has been pointed out this looks less likely immediately.

    You can if the timing doesn't work and looking at the time frame unless an election is called in July for September it really doesn't work...
    He must always be up for it. It has been the only coherent Labour Party line throughout.
    So he would agree a general election on October 31st?
    I think so yes. And he would fight it on the Cons being frit and he would no doubt announce he had pre-agreed something with the EU.

    Who is nominally in charge when parliament breaks up?
    The existing PM....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,691
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Oh and for better or worse (for the Labour Party) there's no way Jezza can not agree to a GE. Although as has been pointed out this looks less likely immediately.

    You can if the timing doesn't work and looking at the time frame unless an election is called in July for September it really doesn't work...
    He must always be up for it. It has been the only coherent Labour Party line throughout.
    So he would agree a general election on October 31st?
    I think so yes. And he would fight it on the Cons being frit and he would no doubt announce he had pre-agreed something with the EU.

    Who is nominally in charge when parliament breaks up?
    The existing PM....
    Gah!! WA it is then.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,994
    eek said:

    Probably best for Boris to keep the Remainers in the tent. He won't want them causing trouble on the backbenches. Moreover, they'll act as a useful firewall, with the Ultras blaming the europhile rotters in the Cabinet for the collapse of his Brexit strategy rather than him.
    What's Hammond and Gauke got to lose if Gauke is no confidenced and Hammond is retiring...
    Good point. Perhaps all this purging won't do Boris any favours - there'll be no Remain bogeymen left to blame when it all implodes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,146

    I wouldn't go this far, but pretty impressive:

    I said a very, very long time ago that I would like to see a Boris v Javid contest to replace May. That would be one to make the membership pause before casting their vote.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,024

    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pakistan collapsing at Taunton.

    I’m all for betting on cricket, but no way I’m getting involved in games involving Pakistan.
    Brilliant with cash out 10/1 5 mins ago now 4/1
    make that 2/1 and CASHOUT
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,561

    I suspect it also takes a prorogue off the table.

    I think that's off the table anyway.

    True.

    10 Tories voted with Labour today. That's before the leadership election is done and the new government is formed. If I were a No Dealer I would not be taking much heart from today's vote. Apparently seven Labour MPs voted against, too. I am not sure they would do so again if they were then voting for No Deal.

    I am afraid there are more than 7 potential Red Tories.

    Not if it comes down to positively voting for a No Deal.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,561
    Byronic said:

    Looks plausible:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/12/boris-johnson-brexit-general-election

    Boris may well think his best shot is a honeymoon election, running against the supposed spectres of the Commission on the one hand and Corbyn on the other.
    Then he gets his majority of 170 and is free to do...

    what?

    It's a huge risk for him. Not least because Labour would undoubtedly include a referendum with a Remain option in its manifesto if Johnson was looking to get a a mandate for No Deal.

    You think Corbyn will go for a referendum? Aww bless. Touching

    Happy to bet on it for a sum you suggest if Johnson goes to the country looking for a No Deal mandate. Any amount you like.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,617
    TOPPING said:

    IDS talking absolute bollocks on PM.

    He wants to negotiate a FTA while in some kind of implementation period on WTO terms.

    So why on earth didn't he support the WA which would have allowed us to do that but without the WTO bit (using the discredited Article 24).

    His stupidity defies belief. Worse, he thinks we are as stupid as he is.

    Which is why of course we will get the WA.

    He is a rare beast. A stupid person who is actually even more stupid than the rest of us think he is.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,607

    I wouldn't go this far, but pretty impressive:

    I said a very, very long time ago that I would like to see a Boris v Javid contest to replace May. That would be one to make the membership pause before casting their vote.
    Javid 34 and Loadsom 9 is bonkers.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,298

    Byronic said:

    Looks plausible:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/12/boris-johnson-brexit-general-election

    Boris may well think his best shot is a honeymoon election, running against the supposed spectres of the Commission on the one hand and Corbyn on the other.
    Then he gets his majority of 170 and is free to do...

    what?

    It's a huge risk for him. Not least because Labour would undoubtedly include a referendum with a Remain option in its manifesto if Johnson was looking to get a a mandate for No Deal.

    You think Corbyn will go for a referendum? Aww bless. Touching

    Happy to bet on it for a sum you suggest if Johnson goes to the country looking for a No Deal mandate. Any amount you like.

    We'll know he really is SeanT if he suggests £10k! :wink:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,024
    Dont see Aussies defending 50 off 7 at tiny Taunton

    Unless they bowl them out of course
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,731
    Brexit not before 2022 has drifted a touch.

    Is there a sense that today's vote implies No Brexit is less likely?

    Can anyone establish why Lab motion failed? Surely not entirely due to absences - are there signs of fewer Con rebels / more Lab rebels than before?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,897

    Mr. Twelve, I also thought the Government would lose that vote.

    I bet Johnson was praying they would!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I wouldn't go this far, but pretty impressive:

    I doubt that Javid will do very well with the Tory membership I have mixed with. I have seen Tory members quit the party over ethnic minority candidates in the past as they said they could not vote for them. I will not mention what else they said but I disagreed with them and advised them to look beyond the superficial differences they perceive X or Y displays....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,691
    edited June 2019
    OllyT said:


    That is overthinking it. Is Corbyn going to say he would rather have a Tory Brexit than an election?

    He's spent the last two years working pretty hard towards it.
    He's spent 2 years saying "I want another election, I want another election". If the PM calls for an election the idea he could say "actually no thanks" is ludicrous.
    It is not ludicrous. The Tories are heading for a car crash either way in October why would the opposition want to let them off the hook. Corbyn maybe desperate to get into the driving seat but he doesn't want to be sitting there on October 31st.
    Corbyn can't say "I don't want an election because I want the UK to disastrously crash under the Tories first". He may think it but he can't say or do it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,607
    Javid has drifted down a bit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,607
    I thought CUK were going to wait until new LD leader is elected before getting into these discussions?

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited June 2019

    TOPPING said:

    IDS talking absolute bollocks on PM.

    He wants to negotiate a FTA while in some kind of implementation period on WTO terms.

    So why on earth didn't he support the WA which would have allowed us to do that but without the WTO bit (using the discredited Article 24).

    His stupidity defies belief. Worse, he thinks we are as stupid as he is.

    Which is why of course we will get the WA.

    He is a rare beast. A stupid person who is actually even more stupid than the rest of us think he is.
    Somebody told me an anecdote about him in ministerial office, they told me IDS was aloof and not trusted by the civil service. I think IDS is a complete prat and his obsession with Europe is only surpassed by his other obsession with benefits.

    It would not have surprised me if IDS, when he was at the DWP would have got signs outside of jobcentres stating "Arbeit macht frei" meaning "work sets you free" !
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,620
    LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,691
    It only strengthens opposition to no deal if they weren't prepared to resign to oppose no deal.

    If they were prepared to then they can oppose from the backbenches but it spikes any principled resignation from happening.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,024

    LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.
    Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.
    Yet the LDs went through the lobbies with the Tories for 5 years! In politics you are grateful for the support you attract! LD cannot be too picky about defectors unless they have anti-Semitic views or something equally repellent..
This discussion has been closed.