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As I said it's best to leave sleeping dogs lie in NI.SouthamObserver said:
Northern Ireland has made clear time and again what it wants. Given how precious our Union is to the Conservative party, maybe it should trust the people of Northern Ireland.TOPPING said:
Unless you get the wrong answer.SouthamObserver said:
It is - to protect the interests of NI. But if you leave the decision to the people of NI then that is no longer an issue. Let them decide if they want a customs border on the island of Ireland or in the Irish Sea.RobD said:SouthamObserver said:
Yep - Remainers solution.Nigelb said:
Polling seems to demonstrate that around two thirds of the NI electorate are not massively bothered by either 1 or 2, if it comes to a choice between the WA and No Deal.Charles said:
FPTPhilip_Thompson said:
No. The province can choose to leave the UK at will or remain in the UK at will.Gallowgate said:
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?Viceroy_of_Orange said:Britain isn't a confederation.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
The province can also elect representatives to Parliamentary bodies that shape its laws and make decisions. Except it can't if the backstop goes through, then it will be a colony.
Just to understand your issues with the back stop:
1. The legitimacy of NI being subject to regulations they have no input in shaping
2. The concern about some form of regulatory checks between GB and NI
Both are reasonable and valid concerns. Couldn’t they be resolved by:
1. Allowing NI to elect MEPs while the backstop is in force*
2. Asking the people of NI to choose between No Deal & a hard border and Deal with limited checks between them and GB? **
* arguably GB should also elect MEPs while the U.K.-wide backstop is in force
** NB this is a recognition of the unique circumstances of NI and not a concession on a U.K.-wide second referendum so don’t waste OGH’s server storage
If all that’s at issue were the consent of the NI electorate, the WA would have passed long ago.
Triggering the backstop? I thought it was an automatic procedure.
The system in NI remains a bit mad but it works. Tinker with it at your peril.0 -
Yes those are exactly my concerns. And those are fine solutions.Charles said:
FPTPhilip_Thompson said:
No. The province can choose to leave the UK at will or remain in the UK at will.Gallowgate said:
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?Viceroy_of_Orange said:Britain isn't a confederation.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
The province can also elect representatives to Parliamentary bodies that shape its laws and make decisions. Except it can't if the backstop goes through, then it will be a colony.
Just to understand your issues with the back stop:
1. The legitimacy of NI being subject to regulations they have no input in shaping
2. The concern about some form of regulatory checks between GB and NI
Both are reasonable and valid concerns. Couldn’t they be resolved by:
1. Allowing NI to elect MEPs while the backstop is in force*
2. Asking the people of NI to choose between No Deal & a hard border and Deal with limited checks between them and GB? **
* arguably GB should also elect MEPs while the U.K.-wide backstop is in force
** NB this is a recognition of the unique circumstances of NI and not a concession on a U.K.-wide second referendum so don’t waste OGH’s server storage
1. I would expand and say that NI must have not just MEPs but representation on the European Council too. Maybe allow Arlene Foster and the NI executive to take the place of the UK in the Council. Granting Foster veto powers where May previously would have had them.0 -
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I thought it was quite witty. All in the eye of the beholder, granted.Benpointer said:
If only it were curtains for your attempts at humour Sunil!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Heard joke once: Man goes to doctor. Says he's depressed. Says life seems harsh and cruel. Says he feels all alone in threatening world where what lies ahead is vague and uncertain.TOPPING said:
Like the old joke - whereas a psychologist asks "how are you?", an existential phenomenologist asks "are you?"ReggieCide said:
Who rather that wot?AlastairMeeks said:
That acronym is the non-politically correct version of the job title.ReggieCide said:O/T
Megha Mohan, BBC Gender and Identity correspondent
wtf!
Doctor says, "Treatment is simple. The great blogger Mike Smithson is online tonight. Go and read politicalbetting.com. That should pick you up." Man bursts into tears. Says "But Doctor... I am Mike Smithson!"
Good joke. Everybody laugh. Roll on snare drum. Curtains.
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Clarke nailing Barclay on his approach0
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A tenner has been matched at 4!rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1138779173311406081
BF has Rory makes last two at a crazy 4.10 -
Ken now asking whether it is right for Boris or anon be allowed to shut down HoC.0
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Barclay doesn't answer.0
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It's ironic that as Brexit is causing the Ulsterisation of English politics, in Northern Ireland it seems to be driving an unprecedented rise of non-sectarian forces.TOPPING said:As I said it's best to leave sleeping dogs lie in NI.
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Mike laying it maybe?rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1138779173311406081
BF has Rory makes last two at a crazy 4.10 -
Basically, NI becomes a "country" in the EU. So much for the indivisibility of the UK, then.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes those are exactly my concerns. And those are fine solutions.Charles said:
FPTPhilip_Thompson said:
No. The province can choose to leave the UK at will or remain in the UK at will.Gallowgate said:
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?Viceroy_of_Orange said:Britain isn't a confederation.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
The province can also elect representatives to Parliamentary bodies that shape its laws and make decisions. Except it can't if the backstop goes through, then it will be a colony.
Just to understand your issues with the back stop:
1. The legitimacy of NI being subject to regulations they have no input in shaping
2. The concern about some form of regulatory checks between GB and NI
Both are reasonable and valid concerns. Couldn’t they be resolved by:
1. Allowing NI to elect MEPs while the backstop is in force*
2. Asking the people of NI to choose between No Deal & a hard border and Deal with limited checks between them and GB? **
* arguably GB should also elect MEPs while the U.K.-wide backstop is in force
** NB this is a recognition of the unique circumstances of NI and not a concession on a U.K.-wide second referendum so don’t waste OGH’s server storage
1. I would expand and say that NI must have not just MEPs but representation on the European Council too. Maybe allow Arlene Foster and the NI executive to take the place of the UK in the Council. Granting Foster veto powers where May previously would have had them.0 -
I couldn’t see Mike’s bet on offer on the LB siteTrèsDifficile said:
Mike laying it maybe?rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1138779173311406081
BF has Rory makes last two at a crazy 4.10 -
Good afternoon. Latest update to the spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0
Kirstene Hair has endorsed Michael Gove.
https://twitter.com/Kirstene4Angus/status/11388082657757552640 -
In the event that No Deal happens, and goes badly wrong, how many deaths definitely attributable to disruption of medical supplies could the prime minister survive?0
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On condition of 2 ... that NI votes for it.surbiton19 said:
Basically, NI becomes a "country" in the EU. So much for the indivisibility of the UK, then.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes those are exactly my concerns. And those are fine solutions.Charles said:
FPTPhilip_Thompson said:
No. The province can choose to leave the UK at will or remain in the UK at will.Gallowgate said:
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?Viceroy_of_Orange said:Britain isn't a confederation.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
The province can also elect representatives to Parliamentary bodies that shape its laws and make decisions. Except it can't if the backstop goes through, then it will be a colony.
Just to understand your issues with the back stop:
1. The legitimacy of NI being subject to regulations they have no input in shaping
2. The concern about some form of regulatory checks between GB and NI
Both are reasonable and valid concerns. Couldn’t they be resolved by:
1. Allowing NI to elect MEPs while the backstop is in force*
2. Asking the people of NI to choose between No Deal & a hard border and Deal with limited checks between them and GB? **
* arguably GB should also elect MEPs while the U.K.-wide backstop is in force
** NB this is a recognition of the unique circumstances of NI and not a concession on a U.K.-wide second referendum so don’t waste OGH’s server storage
1. I would expand and say that NI must have not just MEPs but representation on the European Council too. Maybe allow Arlene Foster and the NI executive to take the place of the UK in the Council. Granting Foster veto powers where May previously would have had them.
If NI votes for it, and if they have representation then I am ok with it.
If they don't have representatives and if they don't vote for it I'm not.
Simple?1 -
10/1 now.IanB2 said:
I couldn’t see Mike’s bet on offer on the LB siteTrèsDifficile said:
Mike laying it maybe?rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1138779173311406081
BF has Rory makes last two at a crazy 4.1
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-permanent-tory-leader/226303233/
To Make Final Two
Void if no MP vote resulting in a final pairing.
Boris Johnson
2/7
Jeremy Hunt
1/2
Michael Gove
3/1
Sajid Javid
6/1
Andrea Leadsom
8/1
Dominic Raab
10/1
Rory Stewart
10/1
Esther McVey
50/1
Matt Hancock
50/1
Mark Harper
100/10 -
A referendum doesn't solve it unless they have representation. You can't vote to make yourself irreversibly a colony. You can't elect a party that will abolish elections.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, a referendum solves it. Do you think the ERG would vote for that?rcs1000 said:
Had the May administration not been dependent on the DUP for S&C, then I suspect there would have been a referendum in Northern Ireland.Charles said:
FPTPhilip_Thompson said:
No. The province can choose to leave the UK at will or remain in the UK at will.Gallowgate said:
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?Viceroy_of_Orange said:Britain isn't a confederation.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
The province can also elect representatives to Parliamentary bodies that shape its laws and make decisions. Except it can't if the backstop goes through, then it will be a colony.
Just to understand your issues with the back stop:
1. The legitimacy of NI being subject to regulations they have no input in shaping
2. The concern about some form of regulatory checks between GB and NI
Both are reasonable and valid concerns. Couldn’t they be resolved by:
1. Allowing NI to elect MEPs while the backstop is in force*
2. Asking the people of NI to choose between No Deal & a hard border and Deal with limited checks between them and GB? **
* arguably GB should also elect MEPs while the U.K.-wide backstop is in force
** NB this is a recognition of the unique circumstances of NI and not a concession on a U.K.-wide second referendum so don’t waste OGH’s server storage
I wonder if a referendum there is on Boris's agenda.0 -
disappeared a few mins ago. price was 10/1 before it went.IanB2 said:
I couldn’t see Mike’s bet on offer on the LB siteTrèsDifficile said:
Mike laying it maybe?rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1138779173311406081
BF has Rory makes last two at a crazy 4.1
paddy's and hills both have the market up.0 -
I can still see itpaulyork64 said:
disappeared a few mins ago. price was 10/1 before it went.IanB2 said:
I couldn’t see Mike’s bet on offer on the LB siteTrèsDifficile said:
Mike laying it maybe?rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1138779173311406081
BF has Rory makes last two at a crazy 4.1
paddy's and hills both have the market up.0 -
Betting Post somewhat related to this. I have put a £5 on Matt Hancock at 20/1 to have the fewest votes. Rationale here is part because he seems to have sunk without trace in the past few days and lost momentum but also because he is fishing in the same pool as Rory Stewart and I suspect the more pro-Remain MPs may look to give Rory a boost in the first round to create perceived momentum, thus taking support from Hancock.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1138779173311406081
BF has Rory makes last two at a crazy 4.1
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If they do not like what is on offer they can vote to reject it.Philip_Thompson said:
A referendum doesn't solve it unless they have representation. You can't vote to make yourself irreversibly a colony. You can't elect a party that will abolish elections.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, a referendum solves it. Do you think the ERG would vote for that?rcs1000 said:
Had the May administration not been dependent on the DUP for S&C, then I suspect there would have been a referendum in Northern Ireland.Charles said:
FPTPhilip_Thompson said:
No. The province can choose to leave the UK at will or remain in the UK at will.Gallowgate said:
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?Viceroy_of_Orange said:Britain isn't a confederation.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
The province can also elect representatives to Parliamentary bodies that shape its laws and make decisions. Except it can't if the backstop goes through, then it will be a colony.
Just to understand your issues with the back stop:
1. The legitimacy of NI being subject to regulations they have no input in shaping
2. The concern about some form of regulatory checks between GB and NI
Both are reasonable and valid concerns. Couldn’t they be resolved by:
1. Allowing NI to elect MEPs while the backstop is in force*
2. Asking the people of NI to choose between No Deal & a hard border and Deal with limited checks between them and GB? **
* arguably GB should also elect MEPs while the U.K.-wide backstop is in force
** NB this is a recognition of the unique circumstances of NI and not a concession on a U.K.-wide second referendum so don’t waste OGH’s server storage
I wonder if a referendum there is on Boris's agenda.
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Rory Stewart has only 7 declared backers. Why aren't more MPs publicly supporting him if he's going to do better than expected?0
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Yes, the rise of the Alliance Party is rather inspiring, isn't it?williamglenn said:
It's ironic that as Brexit is causing the Ulsterisation of English politics, in Northern Ireland it seems to be driving an unprecedented rise of non-sectarian forces.TOPPING said:As I said it's best to leave sleeping dogs lie in NI.
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SpaceX are getting really cocky now, landing rockets back even when it’s foggy outside!0
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As suspected would happen, the Mail has started to attack Boris..banner headline says it all
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7131781/Boris-launches-Tory-bid-warning-party-DEAD-unless-Brexit-happens.html0 -
Who knows in the current insane political climate. Probably do a Norman Lamont and say it is a price worth paying.Chris said:In the event that No Deal happens, and goes badly wrong, how many deaths definitely attributable to disruption of medical supplies could the prime minister survive?
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Sister party of the LibDems - not so surprising given their recent rise in Great Britain?SouthamObserver said:
Yes, the rise of the Alliance Party is rather inspiring, isn't it?williamglenn said:
It's ironic that as Brexit is causing the Ulsterisation of English politics, in Northern Ireland it seems to be driving an unprecedented rise of non-sectarian forces.TOPPING said:As I said it's best to leave sleeping dogs lie in NI.
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Could work. Should work. And takes us to where we could have been in November.TOPPING said:A possible pivot is of course staring us in the face.
Let us remember that the WA *is* leaving. All Boris needs to do is bring his essential Borisness into play by telling the Francois gang just that and to vote it through and Voila!0 -
Who are they supporting?TheKitchenCabinet said:As suspected would happen, the Mail has started to attack Boris..banner headline says it all
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7131781/Boris-launches-Tory-bid-warning-party-DEAD-unless-Brexit-happens.html0 -
If they were publicly supporting him then all his support wouldn't be unexpected.AndyJS said:Rory Stewart has only 7 declared backers. Why aren't more MPs publicly supporting him if he's going to do better than expected?
I'm being facetious, I agree with you. I would vote Rory, but there's many reasons I'm not a Tory MP.0 -
I thought they were forbidden by the Prime Minister of the day (Mr Cameron) to prepare for a Leave victory in the referendum?Philip_Thompson said:
The civil service have a duty to prepare for all eventualities, including the fall of the government and the opposition taking over. Not just the whims of the government of the day.PClipp said:
The civil service is answerable to its bosses. Who have not been able to agree among themselves. Please stop blaming the civil service.Philip_Thompson said:
Tell me please why more than 12 months since it became obvious the WA was doomed the civil service haven't done 6-8 months of preparations?AlastairMeeks said:
So you read about a report from last month that says that Britain will not be ready for 31 October and just decide that it should be so Britain will just have to suffer if it isn't. Right.Philip_Thompson said:
No I want the UK to be prepared and come Halloween there will be no excuse not to be prepared.AlastairMeeks said:
So you want Britain to crash out of the EU when it is unprepared, including on stockpiles of medicine?Philip_Thompson said:
6 to 8 months to prepare and we have had over 30 months come Halloween. Do the maths.AlastairMeeks said:I look forward to all the rebuttals from the death cult:
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1138747518047674368
So it takes 6-8 months to prepare. So what?
It will have been over 40 months to prepare since the Brexit vote
It will have been over three years since a PM was elected saying "No Deal is better than a bad deal"
It will have been over 30 months since the invocation of Article 50
More cruically though:
It will have been over 12 months since mass resignations from the cabinet made it look unlikely that the government could pass the withdrawal agreement.
It will have been over 10 months since the vote on the withdrawal agreement was pulled as it would be lost.
It will have been over 9 months since the house rejected the Withdrawal Agreement by record margins.
So why in that time have 6-8 months of preparations not occured?
And they wonder why I call it a death cult.
Not fit for the role if that's the case.
Given no deal has been a likely outcome it is a deriliction of duty not to prepare for it.0 -
Um, thank you! I just, er, borrowed it from "Watchmen"Quincel said:
I thought it was quite witty. All in the eye of the beholder, granted.Benpointer said:
If only it were curtains for your attempts at humour Sunil!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Heard joke once: Man goes to doctor. Says he's depressed. Says life seems harsh and cruel. Says he feels all alone in threatening world where what lies ahead is vague and uncertain.TOPPING said:
Like the old joke - whereas a psychologist asks "how are you?", an existential phenomenologist asks "are you?"ReggieCide said:
Who rather that wot?AlastairMeeks said:
That acronym is the non-politically correct version of the job title.ReggieCide said:O/T
Megha Mohan, BBC Gender and Identity correspondent
wtf!
Doctor says, "Treatment is simple. The great blogger Mike Smithson is online tonight. Go and read politicalbetting.com. That should pick you up." Man bursts into tears. Says "But Doctor... I am Mike Smithson!"
Good joke. Everybody laugh. Roll on snare drum. Curtains.
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Rory was 34 a few days ago. Pretty sharp fall.0
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Clarke takes the floor0
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Looks plausible:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/12/boris-johnson-brexit-general-election
Boris may well think his best shot is a honeymoon election, running against the supposed spectres of the Commission on the one hand and Corbyn on the other.
Then he gets his majority of 170 and is free to do...
what?0 -
So the groundbreaking quarter percentage point interest rate that Remainers credit with averting an unavoidable immediate recession if we voted Leave and turned hundreds of thousands of job losses into job gains was completely unplanned? Just imagine what could have happened with some planning?PClipp said:
I thought they were forbidden by the Prime Minister of the day (Mr Cameron) to prepare for a Leave victory in the referendum?Philip_Thompson said:
The civil service have a duty to prepare for all eventualities, including the fall of the government and the opposition taking over. Not just the whims of the government of the day.PClipp said:
The civil service is answerable to its bosses. Who have not been able to agree among themselves. Please stop blaming the civil service.Philip_Thompson said:
Tell me please why more than 12 months since it became obvious the WA was doomed the civil service haven't done 6-8 months of preparations?AlastairMeeks said:
So you read about a report from last month that says that Britain will not be ready for 31 October and just decide that it should be so Britain will just have to suffer if it isn't. Right.Philip_Thompson said:
No I want the UK to be prepared and come Halloween there will be no excuse not to be prepared.AlastairMeeks said:
So you want Britain to crash out of the EU when it is unprepared, including on stockpiles of medicine?Philip_Thompson said:
6 to 8 months to prepare and we have had over 30 months come Halloween. Do the maths.AlastairMeeks said:I look forward to all the rebuttals from the death cult:
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1138747518047674368
So it takes 6-8 months to prepare. So what?
It will have been over 40 months to prepare since the Brexit vote
It will have been over three years since a PM was elected saying "No Deal is better than a bad deal"
It will have been over 30 months since the invocation of Article 50
More cruically though:
It will have been over 12 months since mass resignations from the cabinet made it look unlikely that the government could pass the withdrawal agreement.
It will have been over 10 months since the vote on the withdrawal agreement was pulled as it would be lost.
It will have been over 9 months since the house rejected the Withdrawal Agreement by record margins.
So why in that time have 6-8 months of preparations not occured?
And they wonder why I call it a death cult.
Not fit for the role if that's the case.
Given no deal has been a likely outcome it is a deriliction of duty not to prepare for it.0 -
Boris has reached 85 public endorsements, with 73 still to declare.0
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So you have no principled objection to a party being elected that abolishes democracy? That abolishes future elections?SouthamObserver said:
If they do not like what is on offer they can vote to reject it.Philip_Thompson said:
A referendum doesn't solve it unless they have representation. You can't vote to make yourself irreversibly a colony. You can't elect a party that will abolish elections.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, a referendum solves it. Do you think the ERG would vote for that?rcs1000 said:
Had the May administration not been dependent on the DUP for S&C, then I suspect there would have been a referendum in Northern Ireland.Charles said:
FPTPhilip_Thompson said:
No. The province can choose to leave the UK at will or remain in the UK at will.Gallowgate said:
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?Viceroy_of_Orange said:Britain isn't a confederation.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
The province can also elect representatives to Parliamentary bodies that shape its laws and make decisions. Except it can't if the backstop goes through, then it will be a colony.
Just to understand your issues with the back stop:
1. The legitimacy of NI being subject to regulations they have no input in shaping
2. The concern about some form of regulatory checks between GB and NI
Both are reasonable and valid concerns. Couldn’t they be resolved by:
1. Allowing NI to elect MEPs while the backstop is in force*
2. Asking the people of NI to choose between No Deal & a hard border and Deal with limited checks between them and GB? **
* arguably GB should also elect MEPs while the U.K.-wide backstop is in force
** NB this is a recognition of the unique circumstances of NI and not a concession on a U.K.-wide second referendum so don’t waste OGH’s server storage
I wonder if a referendum there is on Boris's agenda.0 -
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If there is criticism of lack of no deal planning it should go to whoever stood down the planners after the extension.0
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I would agree with this solution. But will the DUP and hardcore Unionists go along with it ?Philip_Thompson said:
On condition of 2 ... that NI votes for it.surbiton19 said:
Basically, NI becomes a "country" in the EU. So much for the indivisibility of the UK, then.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes those are exactly my concerns. And those are fine solutions.Charles said:
FPTPhilip_Thompson said:
No. The province can choose to leave the UK at will or remain in the UK at will.Gallowgate said:
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?Viceroy_of_Orange said:Britain isn't a confederation.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
The province can also elect representatives to Parliamentary bodies that shape its laws and make decisions. Except it can't if the backstop goes through, then it will be a colony.
Just to understand your issues with the back stop:
1. The legitimacy of NI being subject to regulations they have no input in shaping
2. The concern about some form of regulatory checks between GB and NI
Both are reasonable and valid concerns. Couldn’t they be resolved by:
1. Allowing NI to elect MEPs while the backstop is in force*
2. Asking the people of NI to choose between No Deal & a hard border and Deal with limited checks between them and GB? **
* arguably GB should also elect MEPs while the U.K.-wide backstop is in force
** NB this is a recognition of the unique circumstances of NI and not a concession on a U.K.-wide second referendum so don’t waste OGH’s server storage
1. I would expand and say that NI must have not just MEPs but representation on the European Council too. Maybe allow Arlene Foster and the NI executive to take the place of the UK in the Council. Granting Foster veto powers where May previously would have had them.
If NI votes for it, and if they have representation then I am ok with it.
If they don't have representatives and if they don't vote for it I'm not.
Simple?0 -
That could be interpreted in a number of ways😁surbiton19 said:0 -
It won't happen, but I'd laugh my head off if Boris was bottom of the ballot.
It baffles me why people are supporting him. Even if you want a Brexit so hard you can only see it via pirate DVDs from the Netherlands, wouldn't you go for someone who has a record for getting things done and keeping commitments, rather than the opposite?1 -
Bank of England are independent and did do planning for Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
So the groundbreaking quarter percentage point interest rate that Remainers credit with averting an unavoidable immediate recession if we voted Leave and turned hundreds of thousands of job losses into job gains was completely unplanned? Just imagine what could have happened with some planning?PClipp said:
I thought they were forbidden by the Prime Minister of the day (Mr Cameron) to prepare for a Leave victory in the referendum?0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A2nJd9Urk8Sandpit said:
The shot of it rising through the clouds is like something from a Hollywood movie. Scroll to T=0 and enjoy.0 -
September election still 12.5 on Betfair.
This covers the new PM calling one straight away, the PM losing a VoNC straight away, and the scenario where the new Con leader clearly doesn’t command a majority in the Commons and Mrs May gets stuck in No. 10 while an election takes place.
Value bet in my mind, but DYOR.0 -
I can see Boris going for a snap election as soon as he's elected. It's the sort of thing he'd do. I don't think any of the other candidates would risk it.Sandpit said:September election still 12.5 on Betfair.
This covers the new PM calling one straight away, the PM losing a VoNC straight away, and the scenario where the new Con leader clearly doesn’t command a majority in the Commons and Mrs May gets stuck in No. 10 while an election takes place.
Value bet in my mind, but DYOR.0 -
What are the odds on him getting less than 85 actual votes on Thursday?!AndyJS said:Boris has reached 85 public endorsements, with 73 still to declare.
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There could well be a majority in the HoC for sitting back and watching Johnson negotiate Oct 31st. It would be very much in Labour's interest to have an election after that date rather than before it.Philip_Thompson said:
Corbyn would look ridiculous to turn down an election. It would be worse than Gordon Brown cancelling the election that never was. Furthermore he couldn't it is just not in his wavelength to reject an election.eek said:
Why would Labour whip in favour of an immediate election. This is one of the few times when it would be politically and electorally better to ensure a November election and there would be plausible reasons to do so - for the entertainment of watching Boris fail to deliver on October 31st if nothing else...Philip_Thompson said:
Corbyn would whip in favour, any Labour MPs who broke that whip would have their whip removed.williamglenn said:
The election motion requites a 2/3 majority so that would be a completely pointless manoeuvre.Philip_Thompson said:
Say that you are viewing this as a matter of confidence and if the vote fails you are tabling an early election motion the next day and will whip the party to vote in favour of the early election. Whip will be removed from anyone who rebels in either vote.Andy_Cooke said:
How do you make something a confidence motion in the post-FTPA era?Philip_Thompson said:
Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No deal on 31st OctoberPhilip_Thompson said:
What promise is impossible?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promisesHYUFD said:Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
Possible ways.
1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
SNP and DUP probably opposed but its moot.
434 = 2/3rds of 650 (even not taking into account speakers and Sinn Fein).
Tory and Labour alone have 560
I also expect Johnson is absolutely relying on Parliament blocking No Deal. Then he can saw I tried but parliament stopped me. If they don't I expect him to wet himself0 -
If he wants any chance of negotiating a better deal with the EU, it’s the only opportunity he’s got. An election in October a week before the deadline isn’t going to fly.AndyJS said:
I can see Boris going for a snap election as soon as he's elected. It's the sort of thing he'd do. I don't think any of the other candidates would risk it.Sandpit said:September election still 12.5 on Betfair.
This covers the new PM calling one straight away, the PM losing a VoNC straight away, and the scenario where the new Con leader clearly doesn’t command a majority in the Commons and Mrs May gets stuck in No. 10 while an election takes place.
Value bet in my mind, but DYOR.0 -
Are you among the 85?PeterMannion said:
What are the odds on him getting less than 85 actual votes on Thursday?!AndyJS said:Boris has reached 85 public endorsements, with 73 still to declare.
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I would be curious on a market for 'Boris Johnson getting fewer votes in first ballot than public backers via ConHome that morning'. I'd be very surprised though, I really would.PeterMannion said:
What are the odds on him getting less than 85 actual votes on Thursday?!AndyJS said:Boris has reached 85 public endorsements, with 73 still to declare.
0 -
Pulpstar's list of non-declareds on Monday seemed to me to have a fair number of ERG on it as well, although perhaps it's only because they are all infamous now and stand out like a sore thumb (well, at least in PB circles). Is that still the case?AndyJS said:Boris has reached 85 public endorsements, with 73 still to declare.
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That is overthinking it. Is Corbyn going to say he would rather have a Tory Brexit than an election?OllyT said:
There could well be a majority in the HoC for sitting back and watching Johnson negotiate Oct 31st. It would be very much in Labour's interest to have an election after that date rather than before it.Philip_Thompson said:
Corbyn would look ridiculous to turn down an election. It would be worse than Gordon Brown cancelling the election that never was. Furthermore he couldn't it is just not in his wavelength to reject an election.eek said:
Why would Labour whip in favour of an immediate election. This is one of the few times when it would be politically and electorally better to ensure a November election and there would be plausible reasons to do so - for the entertainment of watching Boris fail to deliver on October 31st if nothing else...Philip_Thompson said:
Corbyn would whip in favour, any Labour MPs who broke that whip would have their whip removed.williamglenn said:
The election motion requites a 2/3 majority so that would be a completely pointless manoeuvre.Philip_Thompson said:
Say that you are viewing this as a matter of confidence and if the vote fails you are tabling an early election motion the next day and will whip the party to vote in favour of the early election. Whip will be removed from anyone who rebels in either vote.Andy_Cooke said:
How do you make something a confidence motion in the post-FTPA era?Philip_Thompson said:
Not impossible, there are multiple paths to it happening. Just improbable as it stands.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No deal on 31st OctoberPhilip_Thompson said:
What promise is impossible?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He was subdued, even nervous, and managed to be gaff free but has made impossible promisesHYUFD said:Good launch by Boris, made clear he still wants a Deal with the EU but unlike May will not take No Deal off the table and made clear the Tories must deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
Possible ways.
1: Boris three-line whips for No Deal making it a Confidence motion. Passes.
2: Boris calls an election for a mandate for it. Wins.
3: Boris find a way to avoid asking for an extension. Times out, default out.
4: Macron (or A N Other) vetoes an extension. Times out, default out.
SNP and DUP probably opposed but its moot.
434 = 2/3rds of 650 (even not taking into account speakers and Sinn Fein).
Tory and Labour alone have 5600 -
Not sure but given (a) Geordie Greig is pro-Remain (b) Sarah Vine works there and (c) the Mail will hate the Telegraph getting credit for installing a leader, anyone but Boris. Hunt would be my best bet, or Gove...AndyJS said:
Who are they supporting?TheKitchenCabinet said:As suspected would happen, the Mail has started to attack Boris..banner headline says it all
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7131781/Boris-launches-Tory-bid-warning-party-DEAD-unless-Brexit-happens.html0 -
While most of the time all parties would want an election - this time that isn't the case.OllyT said:
There could well be a majority in the HoC for sitting back and watching Johnson negotiate Oct 31st. It would be very much in Labour's interest to have an election after that date rather than before it.Philip_Thompson said:
Corbyn would look ridiculous to turn down an election. It would be worse than Gordon Brown cancelling the election that never was. Furthermore he couldn't it is just not in his wavelength to reject an election.
If Boris fails to deliver Brexit by October 31st the Tory party will be completely destroyed in a subsequent election as TBP would have to stand. So why would you vote for an election where TBP may not stand and your party would be destroyed when if you wait a few weeks TBP will stand and it's the Tory party that would be destroyed.0 -
What do you think today's Opposition debate is working towards...Philip_Thompson said:
That is overthinking it. Is Corbyn going to say he would rather have a Tory Brexit than an election?0 -
Then he can have a "Drain the Swamp" election......OllyT said:
There could well be a majority in the HoC for sitting back and watching Johnson negotiate Oct 31st. It would be very much in Labour's interest to have an election after that date rather than before it.
I also expect Johnson is absolutely relying on Parliament blocking No Deal. Then he can saw I tried but parliament stopped me.0 -
Well, they used to be very keen on referendums...SouthamObserver said:
Yep, a referendum solves it. Do you think the ERG would vote for that?rcs1000 said:
Had the May administration not been dependent on the DUP for S&C, then I suspect there would have been a referendum in Northern Ireland.Charles said:
FPTPhilip_Thompson said:
No. The province can choose to leave the UK at will or remain in the UK at will.Gallowgate said:
So it's the "will of the province" when it suits you and then an imperialistic land grab when it also suits?Viceroy_of_Orange said:Britain isn't a confederation.
We don't have a coalition government *just because* one part of the country voted for a different party. The same applies to UK referendum results.
The province can also elect representatives to Parliamentary bodies that shape its laws and make decisions. Except it can't if the backstop goes through, then it will be a colony.
Just to understand your issues with the back stop:
1. The legitimacy of NI being subject to regulations they have no input in shaping
2. The concern about some form of regulatory checks between GB and NI
Both are reasonable and valid concerns. Couldn’t they be resolved by:
1. Allowing NI to elect MEPs while the backstop is in force*
2. Asking the people of NI to choose between No Deal & a hard border and Deal with limited checks between them and GB? **
* arguably GB should also elect MEPs while the U.K.-wide backstop is in force
** NB this is a recognition of the unique circumstances of NI and not a concession on a U.K.-wide second referendum so don’t waste OGH’s server storage
I wonder if a referendum there is on Boris's agenda.0 -
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I wouldn't be that surprised. Williamson is running BoJo's campaign amongst MPs. To give GW his credit, he was an effective Chief Whip and I am sure he has been using the same tactics in BoJo's campaign. The crucial difference is this ballot is private and not a public vote. So, I would imagine quite a few MPs have said yes to his face but may take a different tack in the vote.Quincel said:
I would be curious on a market for 'Boris Johnson getting fewer votes in first ballot than public backers via ConHome that morning'. I'd be very surprised though, I really would.PeterMannion said:
What are the odds on him getting less than 85 actual votes on Thursday?!AndyJS said:Boris has reached 85 public endorsements, with 73 still to declare.
0 -
A fair number of them have declared since then like Bill Cash, but there are still a few to come. Dominic Raab might hope to pick up some more support, from the likes of Christopher Chope and John Redwood.Pro_Rata said:
Pulpstar's list of non-declareds on Monday seemed to me to have a fair number of ERG on it as well, although perhaps it's only because they are all infamous now and stand out like a sore thumb (well, at least in PB circles). Is that still the case?AndyJS said:Boris has reached 85 public endorsements, with 73 still to declare.
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It's a huge risk for him. Not least because Labour would undoubtedly include a referendum with a Remain option in its manifesto if Johnson was looking to get a a mandate for No Deal.NickPalmer said:Looks plausible:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/12/boris-johnson-brexit-general-election
Boris may well think his best shot is a honeymoon election, running against the supposed spectres of the Commission on the one hand and Corbyn on the other.
Then he gets his majority of 170 and is free to do...
what?
0 -
From memory of an Alistair Meeks comment.Pro_Rata said:
Pulpstar's list of non-declareds on Monday seemed to me to have a fair number of ERG on it as well, although perhaps it's only because they are all infamous now and stand out like a sore thumb (well, at least in PB circles). Is that still the case?AndyJS said:Boris has reached 85 public endorsements, with 73 still to declare.
At 85+ votes - if they all vote that way in secret, may already be enough to make the second ballot.0 -
It would make Tory MPs look like a bunch of liars if that happens. That's one of the reasons I've been taking a keen interest in the public endorsements.PeterMannion said:
What are the odds on him getting less than 85 actual votes on Thursday?!AndyJS said:Boris has reached 85 public endorsements, with 73 still to declare.
0 -
It is not so much who comes last - it is who fails to meet the minimum vote threshold that really mattersScott_P said:0 -
He's spent the last two years working pretty hard towards it.Philip_Thompson said:
That is overthinking it. Is Corbyn going to say he would rather have a Tory Brexit than an election?0 -
I fear he won't do better than expected, but if he does it might be because the MPs that support him are scared of their local constituency members and of being deselected - which would imply that Rory has even less of a chance with the membership if he makes it that far - or they were quick to support another candidate and don't want the embarrassment of publicly changing support before the candidate they've declared for is forced to withdraw.AndyJS said:Rory Stewart has only 7 declared backers. Why aren't more MPs publicly supporting him if he's going to do better than expected?
0 -
He can try that of course but which ever way you look at it Johnson is going to lose a lot of votes on October 31st so it is worth his opponents holding off for an election till after that date. Allowing him to go to the country before that date allows him to carry on promising unicorns for all.MarqueeMark said:
Then he can have a "Drain the Swamp" election......OllyT said:
There could well be a majority in the HoC for sitting back and watching Johnson negotiate Oct 31st. It would be very much in Labour's interest to have an election after that date rather than before it.
I also expect Johnson is absolutely relying on Parliament blocking No Deal. Then he can saw I tried but parliament stopped me.0 -
DD experienced a similar drop off in terms of real support back in 2005. What you say and what you do in the privacy of the voting booth are two very different things.AndyJS said:
It would make Tory MPs look like a bunch of liars if that happens. That's one of the reasons I've been taking a keen interest in the public endorsements.PeterMannion said:
What are the odds on him getting less than 85 actual votes on Thursday?!AndyJS said:Boris has reached 85 public endorsements, with 73 still to declare.
0 -
Ooer. Gareth Snell (Labour) says he'd vote for the WA now.0
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I think Wikipedia (or someone) had John Redwood in for Esther McVey as well as Philip Holloborne.AndyJS said:
A fair number of them have declared since then like Bill Cash, but there are still a few to come. Dominic Raab might hope to pick up some more support, from the likes of Christopher Chope and John Redwood.Pro_Rata said:
Pulpstar's list of non-declareds on Monday seemed to me to have a fair number of ERG on it as well, although perhaps it's only because they are all infamous now and stand out like a sore thumb (well, at least in PB circles). Is that still the case?AndyJS said:Boris has reached 85 public endorsements, with 73 still to declare.
0 -
Only a few more to go and we can have MV4.Gallowgate said:Ooer. Gareth Snell (Labour) says he'd vote for the WA now.
0 -
HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.0
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Lady Hermon did sound like someone likely to support Boris on a VNOC.0
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Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.JackW said:HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.
If he wont be a Tory at an ensuing election. If he defects to Lib Dems do you think he would hold his seat or would the Tories regain it?0 -
Division Called ....0
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Procedural motion to end the debate and have the vote now is carried without opposition. Division on the cross-party opposition day motion.0
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Country before Party? Alien for a Leaver the concept but it does happen.Philip_Thompson said:
Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.JackW said:HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.
If he wont be a Tory at an ensuing election. If he defects to Lib Dems do you think he would hold his seat or would the Tories regain it?0 -
The last few rebel Tory MPs may feel more comfortable voting for the WA, if it's Boris in charge of the ensuing years as well.Slackbladder said:
Only a few more to go and we can have MV4.Gallowgate said:Ooer. Gareth Snell (Labour) says he'd vote for the WA now.
0 -
The manifesto promised "the best possible deal" and a "smooth and orderly Brexit". It's contemptible to claim mandate for a No Deal Brexit from it.Philip_Thompson said:
Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.JackW said:HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.
0 -
Somebody clearly thought it in their interests to cut the debate and spring the vote on the chamber. Wonder whether any MPs will be caught out...0
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He's spent 2 years saying "I want another election, I want another election". If the PM calls for an election the idea he could say "actually no thanks" is ludicrous.BannedInParis said:
He's spent the last two years working pretty hard towards it.Philip_Thompson said:
That is overthinking it. Is Corbyn going to say he would rather have a Tory Brexit than an election?0 -
I've not read the whole thing in detail, but I can't see that the 2017 manifesto addressed no deal directly. Just says the Tories will negotiate the best deal and pass it.Philip_Thompson said:
Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.JackW said:HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.
If he wont be a Tory at an ensuing election. If he defects to Lib Dems do you think he would hold his seat or would the Tories regain it?
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/2017-conservative-manifesto-in-full/
As for whether he would hold his seat or not, it entirely depends on the vote shares of all 4 main parties. Unknowable at this point, but I'd like the Tories chances or maybe Labour if TBP split the Leave vote. Grieve as an independent or LD would be underdogs imho.0 -
In the minds of Leavers every MP should be part of the groupspeak, where everyone is as moronic as Mark Francois. they conveniently forget that all the headbangers defied their party leaders for years, but now the jackboot is on the other foot...TOPPING said:
Country before Party? Alien for a Leaver the concept but it does happen.Philip_Thompson said:
Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.JackW said:HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.
If he wont be a Tory at an ensuing election. If he defects to Lib Dems do you think he would hold his seat or would the Tories regain it?0 -
He may not stand. With the present electoral maelstrom it's difficult to determine save to say that Beaconsfield is one of the safest Tory seats in the country.Philip_Thompson said:
Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.JackW said:HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.
If he wont be a Tory at an ensuing election. If he defects to Lib Dems do you think he would hold his seat or would the Tories regain it?0 -
People on both sides of the divide are capable of having principles. The constant smearing helps no-one.TOPPING said:
Country before Party? Alien for a Leaver the concept but it does happen.Philip_Thompson said:
Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.JackW said:HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.
If he wont be a Tory at an ensuing election. If he defects to Lib Dems do you think he would hold his seat or would the Tories regain it?
Grieve seems to be enjoying grandstanding rather too much for my liking. I don't care for anyone who postures in that way.2 -
Regardless of how today's vote goes Corbyn can not turn down an election.eek said:
What do you think today's Opposition debate is working towards...Philip_Thompson said:
That is overthinking it. Is Corbyn going to say he would rather have a Tory Brexit than an election?0 -
Anyone who is prepared to put their career on the line for the national interest deserves our respect, whether you agree with him or not.oxfordsimon said:
People on both sides of the divide are capable of having principles. The constant smearing helps no-one.TOPPING said:
Country before Party? Alien for a Leaver the concept but it does happen.Philip_Thompson said:
Funny then that he stood on a no deal is better than a bad deal manifesto.JackW said:HoC - Dominic Grieve will VONC if Conservative government forces a no deal.
If he wont be a Tory at an ensuing election. If he defects to Lib Dems do you think he would hold his seat or would the Tories regain it?
Grieve seems to be enjoying grandstanding rather too much for my liking. I don't care for anyone who postures in that way.1 -
Quite so. (smile)SouthamObserver said:
It's a huge risk for him. Not least because Labour would undoubtedly include a referendum with a Remain option in its manifesto if Johnson was looking to get a a mandate for No Deal.NickPalmer said:Looks plausible:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/12/boris-johnson-brexit-general-election
Boris may well think his best shot is a honeymoon election, running against the supposed spectres of the Commission on the one hand and Corbyn on the other.
Then he gets his majority of 170 and is free to do...
what?0
This discussion has been closed.