politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Peterborough Chronicle. About that by-election
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Peterborough Chronicle. About that by-election
Twitter, are we not going to spend the day using Peterborough to share dodgy maths & bar charts like we did after the European elections?
Comments
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First like Labour.0
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Second like Spurs0
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Its the most worrying view I've seen in the race . I mean, I voted brexit too and wanted MPs to take us out long before now, but it is not worth any price for heavens sake. These Tory Brexiteers are nuts, or know it's wrong to suggest such things but only care that the party members like to hear it, which is worse.Cyclefree said:
Raab with his nonsense about proroguing Parliament is actively dangerous._Anazina_ said:
As much as I instinctively dislike him, Gove is clearly head and shoulders above the lazy and incompetent Boris and the fatuous and ignorant Raab.eek said:
And what percentage of those same voters would think Raab is a suitable candidate to be PM? I better it's a lot fewer than the 47% backing Boris....Scott_P said:
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An also-ran. Like the Conservatives.0
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5TH singing of Oh Jeeeeremy Cooorrrbyn required1
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Leave secured 60.9% of the vote in Peterborough in 2016 and only 51% of the vote in Peterborough in 2019
Labour are not a Remain party.0 -
Nigel was foolish doing this letter thing today. That stunt was obviously planned when he thought TBP was going to win the by-election. Persisting with it makes him look at bit of a chump.2
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They are when it suits.Tissue_Price said:Leave secured 60.9% of the vote in Peterborough in 2016 and only 51% of the vote in Peterborough in 2019
Labour are not a Remain party.0 -
I see Jess Phillips and Wes Streeting have slapped ass faces this morning.1
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I did the Santa Claus joke. Nobody laughed...Stark_Dawning said:Nigel was foolish doing this letter thing today. That stunt was obviously planned when he thought TBP was going to win the by-election. Persisting with it makes him look at bit of a chump.
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Richard N FPT
No problem, it’s forgotten
Thanks sir.0 -
"These are my principles. And if you don't like them...well, I have others..."brokenwheel said:
They are when it suits.Tissue_Price said:Leave secured 60.9% of the vote in Peterborough in 2016 and only 51% of the vote in Peterborough in 2019
Labour are not a Remain party.
Groucho Marx0 -
Nigel a bit of a chump? You're sure about that? If also, he's improving!Stark_Dawning said:Nigel was foolish doing this letter thing today. That stunt was obviously planned when he thought TBP was going to win the by-election. Persisting with it makes him look at bit of a chump.
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@AlastairMeeks , we've been getting good articles recently so I forget to thank people, but that was a particularly good article. Thank you.2
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I suppose perspective and context is everything, but given the current national situation I'm not sure I would say the result was terrible for the Tories. Very poor certainly but their vote held up more than was to be expected. Suggests if they find a way of dealing with Brexit* they may be able to claw voters back from the Brexit Party.
But yes, certainly a good result for Labour however you play it.
*Yes, I am well aware that looks to be an impossible task.0 -
No wonder you Jezzites don't like those two.bigjohnowls said:I see Jess Phillips and Wes Streeting have slapped ass faces this morning.
Jess, Wes...Jes, Wess...Je, Wess...JEWS!!2 -
They had spent so long perfecting their tweets about Labour being a disaster after we lost and needing change at the top...bigjohnowls said:I see Jess Phillips and Wes Streeting have slapped ass faces this morning.
Can hardly blame them for being a bit cross when Jezza comes through smelling of roses again
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Yes. The unknown, other than as you say the actual delivery of Brexit, is whether the whole 'politics is broken' line actually takes hold and stays there even after Brexit.numbertwelve said:I suppose perspective and context is everything, but given the current national situation I'm not sure I would say the result was terrible for the Tories. Very poor certainly but their vote held up more than was to be expected. Suggests if they find a way of dealing with Brexit* they may be able to claw voters back from the Brexit Party.
But yes, certainly a good result for Labour however you play it.
*Yes, I am well aware that looks to be an impossible task.0 -
In other news, looks like no World Cup cricket today. Which means that both Pakistan and Sri Lanka will move above England in the table.0
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6 and 8 Given current polling the Tories could have come 4th in Peterborough behind the LDs so Paul Bristow showed he was an effective enough candidate to prevent Tory meltdown. Indeed if Boris becomes leader and gets a Tory majority Bristow could well still be the next MP for the city1
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Good stuff - hard to disagree.
BXP is not going to get ground-games and inside constituency knowledge given the way that it is set up so will always rely on national messaging and momentum. That means its fortunes will depend on what other parties do around Brexit. On that basis, you'd expect it to significantly under-perform its current polling in a general election campaign. Its only role will be to cause damage - mostly to the Tories if the demographics identified in Chaminda Jayanetti's research are correct.0 -
FPT;
Um, why? (especially given it's likely to be a high turnout by-election)Pulpstar said:
It was 17.7% at the last GE. It'll be between 1000 and 2000 tops in the by election, that's plenty to fall.brokenwheel said:
The Labour vote in Brecon is really down to the bone, I can't see it going anywhere.Pulpstar said:
You'll see it again Brecon even as the Labour vote collapses to rubble.tlg86 said:
One of my favourite charts that Mike shows is the share of votes for only Labour and Tory voters. So looking at the change in the Labour share of the Tory/Labour combined vote we get:rottenborough said:
Witney: 2.8 pp
Richmond Park*: -9.9 pp
Sleaford and North Hykeham: -7.5 pp
Copeland: -8.4 pp
Stoke-on-Trent Central: -3.2 pp
Lewisham East: 3.0 pp
Newport West: -1.2 pp
Peterborough: 8.4 pp
* Treating Zach as the Tory.
That is to say that whilst Labour's performance in by elections is worsening, the performance of the Tories has deteriorated at a faster rate - especially in Peterborough.
Yes it was 17%, only 7% above their very worst showing in the constituency. Their result improved slightly in 2017 despite it clearly being a two horse race between the Conservatives and LDs. I can't see the voters of say, Ystradglynais, suddenly finding a yearning for the LDs when they've had the opportunity before.0 -
Even in the blackest cloud there is a small silver lining......HYUFD said:6 and 8 Given current polling the Tories could have come 4th in Peterborough behind the LDs so Paul Bristow showed he was an effective enough candidate to prevent Tory meltdown. Indeed if Boris becomes leader and gets a Tory majority Bristow could well still be the next MP for the city
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7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.2 -
The best way forward is Boris becomes leader, dumps the Customs Union on even a temporary basis from the political declaration but otherwise still agrees the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU.kle4 said:
Its the most worrying view I've seen in the race . I mean, I voted brexit too and wanted MPs to take us out long before now, but it is not worth any price for heavens sake. These Tory Brexiteers are nuts, or know it's wrong to suggest such things but only care that the party members like to hear it, which is worse.Cyclefree said:
Raab with his nonsense about proroguing Parliament is actively dangerous._Anazina_ said:
As much as I instinctively dislike him, Gove is clearly head and shoulders above the lazy and incompetent Boris and the fatuous and ignorant Raab.eek said:
And what percentage of those same voters would think Raab is a suitable candidate to be PM? I better it's a lot fewer than the 47% backing Boris....Scott_P said:
If he can renegotiate the backstop with the EU perhaps with Gove as Brexit Secretary all to the good as the Brady amendment showed there is a majority for that in the Commons, if not he should go into a general election promising a FTA for GB and keeping the backstop for Northern Ireland until a technical solution is found to the Irish border there. If he has to start the DUP so be it, as the European elections in NI showed it is now the Alliance Party voters who are the key swing voters in the province anyway, the DUP does not have a majority there0 -
Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.0 -
It was good compared to expectations. But, that is not a high bar.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.0 -
I thought the odds were crazy for the Brexit Party but wrongly assumed that there must at least have been some firm basis behind the money going on them, but seemingly not.
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YouGov carried out a test to show the effect of promoting for the Brexit Party. Sure enough, they get a boost.
https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1136962303381975046?s=210 -
"Leave secured 60.9% of the vote in Peterborough in 2016 and the Brexit party secured 28.9% in 2019."
Knockdown evidence that you can't dictate what an election is about - and if you can't in a by election, a fortiori you can't in a GE. So that's that route out of the current mess closed off.0 -
National Fish & Chips day, folks.0
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Not even "mildly good" butIanB2 said:
Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
Tactically and short term on the plus side :
1. Labour won
2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
3. Farage wet haddocked.
Strategically - As my previous post.0 -
"Hat tip to Matthew Goodwin for pointing this out"
Hahaha. Very good.0 -
Labour also won a seat that they should really have lost due to the conduct of their previous MP....JackW said:
Not even "mildly good" butIanB2 said:
Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
Tactically and short term on the plus side :
1. Labour won
2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
3. Farage wet haddocked.
Strategically - As my previous post.1 -
Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.JackW said:
Not even "mildly good" butIanB2 said:
Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
Tactically and short term on the plus side :
1. Labour won
2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
3. Farage wet haddocked.
Strategically - As my previous post.
However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.1 -
Indeed Sean.Sean_F said:
It was good compared to expectations. But, that is not a high bar.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
It comes to something when edging out TBP is marked as a triumph of expectation management.0 -
@TheJezziah and @bjo
Time to ask for your money back:
https://theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/06/galloway-charity-may-have-delivered-no-aid-despite-1m-donations0 -
As for those rallies in the constituency, Nigel might as well have stood up and cried 'Weeeeere arrrrrlriiiiiiiight'.0
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Wes Streeting: Many have asked how I can remain in the Labour Party given the above. I’m afraid this has become a reasonable question and the argument that staying means complicity is not without merit. I will be addressing this publicly, directly, at @LabourFirst:1
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Perhaps more accurately described as the least worst result of the night ?JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
As Richard N. points out, the Tory party is so permanently fractured that a similarly poor result, replicated in a general election, is quite capable of making Labour the party of government.
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Two half-baked observations:
1. In the medium term, this is good for the Lib Dems, as it will cement Corbyn's policy of equivocation and halt any further movement towards Labour adopting a second referendum policy. The Lib Dems will continue to be the "party of Remain".
2. On Twitter, Conservative activists are already rolling out the "vote Farage, get Corbyn" line. That's fine except I'm not sure people will believe it. If the argument is "splitting the Brexit vote will let Labour in", why will Brexiteers side for a we-don't-know-what-Brexit-we-want party (the Conservatives) rather than a Brexit-right-now party (TBP)?0 -
Thank goodness for that. The self-pity and sanctimoniousness that all that stirred up amongst the Leavers/Borisites was too much to bear.Scott_P said:0 -
Leadsom shorter than both Gove and Hunt.
What. The. F*ck.0 -
The irony is that Conservatives are better off with a Labour win but Leavers would have been better off with a BXP win.Tissue_Price said:
Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.JackW said:
Not even "mildly good" butIanB2 said:
Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
Tactically and short term on the plus side :
1. Labour won
2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
3. Farage wet haddocked.
Strategically - As my previous post.
However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.1 -
Good: though it'll be interesting to see the reasons (if, as a non-lawyer, I can parse them, that is).Scott_P said:0 -
Boris!!!!!!!!!!Scott_P said:
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Someone’s putting a hell of a lot of cash behind her.Casino_Royale said:Leadsom shorter than both Gove and Hunt.
What. The. F*ck.
(Waits for someone in her team to say that the betting markets show she’s a serious contender).0 -
That could well be the reason.Stark_Dawning said:
Thank goodness for that. The self-pity and sanctimoniousness that all that stirred up amongst the Leavers/Borisites was too much to bear.Scott_P said:
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Certainly misconduct of the previous MP does look to have been a factor in by elections in the past, though personally I don't see why that should have any bearing on who represents the constituency moving forward. If it's been a party political scandal maybe, if it's been some personal error of judgement or wilful misconduct why should that be the party's problem (unless it can be shown that the party didn't vet the candidate properly, for instance).eek said:
Labour also won a seat that they should really have lost due to the conduct of their previous MP....JackW said:
Not even "mildly good" butIanB2 said:
Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
Tactically and short term on the plus side :
1. Labour won
2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
3. Farage wet haddocked.
Strategically - As my previous post.0 -
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I shall have to tell people not to give me christmas presents this year.... Wes has it organised.IanB2 said:Wes Streeting: Many have asked how I can remain in the Labour Party given the above. I’m afraid this has become a reasonable question and the argument that staying means complicity is not without merit. I will be addressing this publicly, directly, at @LabourFirst:
In all seriousness if they believe the rubbish they spout then they can't really justify staying. I wouldn't be sitting in a party I thought was racist. Jess would join him if she had any morals.0 -
Good to hear. Let political arguments be decided in the ballot box, not in the courtroom.Scott_P said:0 -
Hhhmmm ....Tissue_Price said:
Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.JackW said:
Not even "mildly good" butIanB2 said:
Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
Tactically and short term on the plus side :
1. Labour won
2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
3. Farage wet haddocked.
Strategically - As my previous post.
However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.
I'm conflicted. TBD "deserve" representation in the HoC as indeed I argued previously that UKIP did but Farage reduces my sympathy to almost zero.
That said the personal shouldn't intrude on the principle.
As for Lisa Forbes. She's damned lucky that she was the nominated candidate before her "interesting" views surfaced.
The voters clearly decided that Forbes was the least worst of two unpalatable options.0 -
While the decision is right on the law as it stands, there is no public policy reason for allowing politicians to lie for profit. In most other walks of life it would be a criminal offence.Sandpit said:
Good to hear. Let political arguments be decided in the ballot box, not in the courtroom.Scott_P said:
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The thing that Boris can do that May could never countenance is to say that if there is even a hint of bad faith going forward into the trade negotiations by the EU, he will abrogate the whole Treaty. Not his deal, never believed in it, but for now, will try to make it work.....HYUFD said:
The best way forward is Boris becomes leader, dumps the Customs Union on even a temporary basis from the political declaration but otherwise still agrees the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU.kle4 said:
Its the most worrying view I've seen in the race . I mean, I voted brexit too and wanted MPs to take us out long before now, but it is not worth any price for heavens sake. These Tory Brexiteers are nuts, or know it's wrong to suggest such things but only care that the party members like to hear it, which is worse.Cyclefree said:
Raab with his nonsense about proroguing Parliament is actively dangerous._Anazina_ said:
As much as I instinctively dislike him, Gove is clearly head and shoulders above the lazy and incompetent Boris and the fatuous and ignorant Raab.eek said:
And what percentage of those same voters would think Raab is a suitable candidate to be PM? I better it's a lot fewer than the 47% backing Boris....Scott_P said:
If he can renegotiate the backstop with the EU perhaps with Gove as Brexit Secretary all to the good as the Brady amendment showed there is a majority for that in the Commons, if not he should go into a general election promising a FTA for GB and keeping the backstop for Northern Ireland until a technical solution is found to the Irish border there. If he has to start the DUP so be it, as the European elections in NI showed it is now the Alliance Party voters who are the key swing voters in the province anyway, the DUP does not have a majority there
Might be enough to get the WA over the line.0 -
edit0
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Leave out the first two words of Rozenberg's tweet and we're there !!!!!!!GIN1138 said:1 -
I'm not totally convinced that threatening to renege on the deal is the most fruitful approach for persuading our EU friends that they don't need a legally-binding backstop.MarqueeMark said:The thing that Boris can do that May could never ountenance is to say that if there is even a hint of bad faith going forward into the trade negotiations by the EU, he will abrogate the whol Treaty. Not his deal, never believed in it, but for now, will try to make it work.....
Might be enough to get the WA over the line.0 -
You can lay Boris making final 2 at 1.4 and back him winning at 1.5. Arb opportunity if you think he's certain to win given that he makes the final 2. (Not sure how to calculate implied odds you'd be getting on that statement)0
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You do wonder if a Brexiteer PM might be able to sell the WA (plus some tweaks) much better than May could, with May essentially being the fall gal to get it through.MarqueeMark said:
The thing that Boris can do that May could never countenance is to say that if there is even a hint of bad faith going forward into the trade negotiations by the EU, he will abrogate the whol Treaty. Not his deal, never believed in it, but for now, will try to make it work.....HYUFD said:
The best way forward is Boris becomes leader, dumps the Customs Union on even a temporary basis from the political declaration but otherwise still agrees the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU.kle4 said:
Its the most worrying view I've seen in the race . I mean, I voted brexit too and wanted MPs to take us out long before now, but it is not worth any price for heavens sake. These Tory Brexiteers are nuts, or know it's wrong to suggest such things but only care that the party members like to hear it, which is worse.Cyclefree said:
Raab with his nonsense about proroguing Parliament is actively dangerous._Anazina_ said:
As much as I instinctively dislike him, Gove is clearly head and shoulders above the lazy and incompetent Boris and the fatuous and ignorant Raab.eek said:
And what percentage of those same voters would think Raab is a suitable candidate to be PM? I better it's a lot fewer than the 47% backing Boris....Scott_P said:
If he can renegotiate the backstop with the EU perhaps with Gove as Brexit Secretary all to the good as the Brady amendment showed there is a majority for that in the Commons, if not he should go into a general election promising a FTA for GB and keeping the backstop for Northern Ireland until a technical solution is found to the Irish border there. If he has to start the DUP so be it, as the European elections in NI showed it is now the Alliance Party voters who are the key swing voters in the province anyway, the DUP does not have a majority there
Might be enough to get the WA over the line.0 -
On July 16th!!! No urgency on this, clearly...IanB2 said:Wes Streeting: Many have asked how I can remain in the Labour Party given the above. I’m afraid this has become a reasonable question and the argument that staying means complicity is not without merit. I will be addressing this publicly, directly, at @LabourFirst:
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A Tory-Brexit accommodation would potentially smash Labour and the LibDems. Getting there is another thing......AndyJS said:edit
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I'm assuming that discussion will not bear fruit.....Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm not totally convinced that threatening to renege on the deal is the most fruitful approach for persuading our EU friends that they don't need a legally-binding backstop.MarqueeMark said:The thing that Boris can do that May could never ountenance is to say that if there is even a hint of bad faith going forward into the trade negotiations by the EU, he will abrogate the whol Treaty. Not his deal, never believed in it, but for now, will try to make it work.....
Might be enough to get the WA over the line.0 -
A real sliding doors moment for her. Obviously all elections are, but she'd have been finished if she'd lost (whereas Mr Bristow may yet win this seat).JackW said:
Hhhmmm ....Tissue_Price said:
Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.JackW said:
Not even "mildly good" butIanB2 said:
Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
Tactically and short term on the plus side :
1. Labour won
2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
3. Farage wet haddocked.
Strategically - As my previous post.
However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.
I'm conflicted. TBD "deserve" representation in the HoC as indeed I argued previously that UKIP did but Farage reduces my sympathy to almost zero.
That said the personal shouldn't intrude on the principle.
As for Lisa Forbes. She's damned lucky that she was the nominated candidate before her "interesting" views surfaced.
The voters clearly decided that Forbes was the least worst of two unpalatable options.1 -
Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?0
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As a Leaver Boris may be more trusted to deliver by Brexit backing MPs than May was as a Remainer yesMarqueeMark said:
The thing that Boris can do that May could never countenance is to say that if there is even a hint of bad faith going forward into the trade negotiations by the EU, he will abrogate the whole Treaty. Not his deal, never believed in it, but for now, will try to make it work.....HYUFD said:
The best way forward is Boris becomes leader, dumps the Customs Union on even a temporary basis from the political declaration but otherwise still agrees the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU.kle4 said:
Its the most worrying view I've seen in the race . I mean, I voted brexit too and wanted MPs to take us out long before now, but it is not worth any price for heavens sake. These Tory Brexiteers are nuts, or know it's wrong to suggest such things but only care that the party members like to hear it, which is worse.Cyclefree said:
Raab with his nonsense about proroguing Parliament is actively dangerous._Anazina_ said:
As much as I instinctively dislike him, Gove is clearly head and shoulders above the lazy and incompetent Boris and the fatuous and ignorant Raab.eek said:
And what percentage of those same voters would think Raab is a suitable candidate to be PM? I better it's a lot fewer than the 47% backing Boris....Scott_P said:
If he can renegotiate the backstop with the EU perhaps with Gove as Brexit Secretary all to the good as the Brady amendment showed there is a majority for that in the Commons, if not he should go into a general election promising a FTA for GB and keeping the backstop for Northern Ireland until a technical solution is found to the Irish border there. If he has to start the DUP so be it, as the European elections in NI showed it is now the Alliance Party voters who are the key swing voters in the province anyway, the DUP does not have a majority there
Might be enough to get the WA over the line.0 -
I'm not sure #1 is correct. Both Labour and the Brexit party knew they were in the hunt, and they were the only two who were. Hence the frantic ramping and calling of activists in, the leaflets against each other, and the lack of urgency from the other parties.
If you ignore the froth from early ballot paper verifications, actually the people with ears on the ground seemed to do well, better than journalists who turned up for a day and wrote their 'prediction' anyway.0 -
A Tory-Brexit accommodation would remove any temptation for Labour-inclined voters to vote for the Brexit Party.MarqueeMark said:
A Tory-Brexit accommodation would potentially smash Labour and the LibDems. Getting there is another thing......AndyJS said:edit
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Labour -17%. Conservatives -25%
The Tories are doing something to staunch their blood letting of voters.
What are Labour doing...?1 -
She's lost in poor visibility, but it might be a smokescreen of course.Tissue_Price said:Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?
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Winning.RochdalePioneers said:Labour -17%. Conservatives -25%
The Tories are doing something to staunch their blood letting of voters.
What are Labour doing...?1 -
It would also remove the temptation for a lot of Tory-inclined voters to vote for the Tory party.williamglenn said:
A Tory-Brexit accommodation would remove any temptation for Labour-inclined voters to vote for the Brexit Party.MarqueeMark said:
A Tory-Brexit accommodation would potentially smash Labour and the LibDems. Getting there is another thing......AndyJS said:edit
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And every reaction has a counter-reaction. Pressure on remainers to sort themselves out, or at the least for an effective tactical voting drive to defeat the right, would be strong.williamglenn said:
A Tory-Brexit accommodation would remove any temptation for Labour-inclined voters to vote for the Brexit Party.MarqueeMark said:
A Tory-Brexit accommodation would potentially smash Labour and the LibDems. Getting there is another thing......AndyJS said:edit
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They're not going to have a good time convincing Labour MPs or the DUP, so the move is for the Brexiteer PM to sell the *referendum* that they have to concede to get the votes to pass the WA.numbertwelve said:
You do wonder if a Brexiteer PM might be able to sell the WA (plus some tweaks) much better than May could, with May essentially being the fall gal to get it through.
It would definitely be possible for a spirited Brexit-credentialed PM to tell a good story on this. Insist that it be binding, project confidence that it will be won, pitch it as another chance to pwn the remoaners, etc etc.0 -
So media, pundits, polls, gamblers, politicians etc etc all got it wrong again. On that basis we should probably predict that Mark Harper is going to win the Tory leadership election.0
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Only under PR, a Boris led Tory Party remains the best bet to get a majority in the Commons for Brexit under FPTP. Getting too close to Farage though might end up leaving the combined Brexit vote just short as William Glenn alludes to, remember the Brexit Party appeals to some Labour Leave non Tories too and some moderate Leavers like Boris but not Farage.MarqueeMark said:
A Tory-Brexit accommodation would potentially smash Labour and the LibDems. Getting there is another thing......AndyJS said:edit
In the referendum Boris as frontman was key to getting Leave over 50%, as Cummings for example realised having Farage as frontman would likely have seen Leave fall short and a narrow Remain win1 -
As can be evidenced by PM Corbyn and his ever increasing number of MPs?brokenwheel said:
Winning.RochdalePioneers said:Labour -17%. Conservatives -25%
The Tories are doing something to staunch their blood letting of voters.
What are Labour doing...?0 -
If she's got sense she'll sit this one out. Contest has essentially developed into Johnson v Gove already (potentially Hunt might squeak through in place of Gove but he's the only one I see doing it). She'd be better to stay out of it, back the person who looks likely to win with a view to keeping her MOD job and keeping her powder dry for next time.Tissue_Price said:Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?
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Indeed! And for how long will we keep winning whilst we hemorrhage voters like this? Especially if the Tories stop doing the same.brokenwheel said:
Winning.RochdalePioneers said:Labour -17%. Conservatives -25%
The Tories are doing something to staunch their blood letting of voters.
What are Labour doing...?1 -
Winning By Elections with increased majorities on reduced turnouts thats what.RochdalePioneers said:Labour -17%. Conservatives -25%
The Tories are doing something to staunch their blood letting of voters.
What are Labour doing...?
Celebrate Comrade
Or more likely for you join the Wes Streeting Jess Phillips slapped ass fest.1 -
Better stay in port for the afternnon .... "Sink the Bismarck!" on Film4 presently .... but which Conservative is that doomed battleship ?!?Tissue_Price said:Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?
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Is Ball going to refund his supporters now? Thought not.Scott_P said:
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An additional argument from Eastleigh that LibDem MPs consoled themselves with during the coalition...numbertwelve said:
Certainly misconduct of the previous MP does look to have been a factor in by elections in the past, though personally I don't see why that should have any bearing on who represents the constituency moving forward. If it's been a party political scandal maybe, if it's been some personal error of judgement or wilful misconduct why should that be the party's problem (unless it can be shown that the party didn't vet the candidate properly, for instance).eek said:
Labour also won a seat that they should really have lost due to the conduct of their previous MP....JackW said:
Not even "mildly good" butIanB2 said:
Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
Tactically and short term on the plus side :
1. Labour won
2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
3. Farage wet haddocked.
Strategically - As my previous post.0 -
El_Capitano said:
Two half-baked observations:
1. In the medium term, this is good for the Lib Dems, as it will cement Corbyn's policy of equivocation and halt any further movement towards Labour adopting a second referendum policy. The Lib Dems will continue to be the "party of Remain".
2. On Twitter, Conservative activists are already rolling out the "vote Farage, get Corbyn" line. That's fine except I'm not sure people will believe it. If the argument is "splitting the Brexit vote will let Labour in", why will Brexiteers side for a we-don't-know-what-Brexit-we-want party (the Conservatives) rather than a Brexit-right-now party (TBP)?
Given the views of most Tory activists nowadays, it is pretty ripe if they think trying to frighten voters with him will be an effective strategy against Labour. These are the same activists who mostly voted for Farage themselves just a few weeks back.0 -
I think the Tories overestimate the electoral damage that continual accusations of antisemitism might cause Labour. This issue has been well-aired, any Labour voters who are going to desert the Party because of it have already gone and there is now such a welter of accusations and counter accusations that it is hard to separate fact from spin (which is not in any way to excuse Labour or say that there is no problem) but daily "revelations" about something somebody said on twitter are devaluing the currency and may well be having the opposite effect to that intended.Tissue_Price said:
Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.JackW said:
Not even "mildly good" butIanB2 said:
Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
Tactically and short term on the plus side :
1. Labour won
2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
3. Farage wet haddocked.
Strategically - As my previous post.
However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.0 -
Tied up in Pompey with CODLOG problems.Tissue_Price said:Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?
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It really would.MarqueeMark said:
A Tory-Brexit accommodation would potentially smash Labour and the LibDems. Getting there is another thing......AndyJS said:edit
0 -
This was aired on the Daily Politics and confirmed by Prof Curtice (pbuh)El_Capitano said:2. On Twitter, Conservative activists are already rolling out the "vote Farage, get Corbyn" line. That's fine except I'm not sure people will believe it. If the argument is "splitting the Brexit vote will let Labour in", why will Brexiteers side for a we-don't-know-what-Brexit-we-want party (the Conservatives) rather than a Brexit-right-now party (TBP)?
A vote for the Brexit candidate risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.
A vote for the Tory candidate in the same seat risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.
Without a pact, the parties of Brexit are locked in a FPTP deadly embrace.
Shame...0 -
Same can be said for the remain parties, although one is already extinct.Scott_P said:
This was aired on the Daily Politics and confirmed by Prof Curtice (pbuh)El_Capitano said:2. On Twitter, Conservative activists are already rolling out the "vote Farage, get Corbyn" line. That's fine except I'm not sure people will believe it. If the argument is "splitting the Brexit vote will let Labour in", why will Brexiteers side for a we-don't-know-what-Brexit-we-want party (the Conservatives) rather than a Brexit-right-now party (TBP)?
A vote for the Brexit candidate risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.
A vote for the Tory candidate in the same seat risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.
Without a pact, the parties of Brexit are locked in a FPTP deadly embrace.
Shame...0 -
The Bismarck was lost by confused bickering at the top (Lütjens vs Lindemann) and lack of discipline in communications so it's an apt comparison.JackW said:
Better stay in port for the afternnon .... "Sink the Bismarck!" on Film4 presently .... but which Conservative is that doomed battleship ?!?Tissue_Price said:Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?
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Tories like Jess Phillips, and Wes Streeting, and Tom Watson?anothernick said:
I think the Tories overestimate the electoral damage that continual accusations of antisemitism might cause Labour. This issue has been well-aired, any Labour voters who are going to desert the Party because of it have already gone and there is now such a welter of accusations and counter accusations that it is hard to separate fact from spin (which is not in any way to excuse Labour or say that there is no problem) but daily "revelations" about something somebody said on twitter are devaluing the currency and may well be having the opposite effect to that intended.Tissue_Price said:
Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.JackW said:
Not even "mildly good" butIanB2 said:
Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
Tactically and short term on the plus side :
1. Labour won
2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
3. Farage wet haddocked.
Strategically - As my previous post.
However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.0 -
Fingers crossed a new Tory leader can resolve this with some clarity.Scott_P said:
This was aired on the Daily Politics and confirmed by Prof Curtice (pbuh)El_Capitano said:2. On Twitter, Conservative activists are already rolling out the "vote Farage, get Corbyn" line. That's fine except I'm not sure people will believe it. If the argument is "splitting the Brexit vote will let Labour in", why will Brexiteers side for a we-don't-know-what-Brexit-we-want party (the Conservatives) rather than a Brexit-right-now party (TBP)?
A vote for the Brexit candidate risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.
A vote for the Tory candidate in the same seat risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.
Without a pact, the parties of Brexit are locked in a FPTP deadly embrace.
Shame...
What is going to change on Labour's side?0 -
YouGov, latest poll:
BRX 26%
LD 20%
Lab 20%
Con 18%
Greens 9%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#20190 -
Breaking: Jewish Labour Movement calling for their new MP to be suspended from the Labour Party1
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The Conservative Party is perhaps the Bismark de nos jours.JackW said:
Better stay in port for the afternnon .... "Sink the Bismarck!" on Film4 presently .... but which Conservative is that doomed battleship ?!?Tissue_Price said:Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?
0 -
To Corbynistas these are the worst sort of 'Tories'.Sandpit said:
Tories like Jess Phillips, and Wes Streeting, and Tom Watson?anothernick said:
I think the Tories overestimate the electoral damage that continual accusations of antisemitism might cause Labour. This issue has been well-aired, any Labour voters who are going to desert the Party because of it have already gone and there is now such a welter of accusations and counter accusations that it is hard to separate fact from spin (which is not in any way to excuse Labour or say that there is no problem) but daily "revelations" about something somebody said on twitter are devaluing the currency and may well be having the opposite effect to that intended.Tissue_Price said:
Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.JackW said:
Not even "mildly good" butIanB2 said:
Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.JackW said:7) This was a really good result for Labour.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
Tactically and short term on the plus side :
1. Labour won
2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
3. Farage wet haddocked.
Strategically - As my previous post.
However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.1
