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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Peterborough Chronicle. About that by-election

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Peterborough Chronicle. About that by-election

Twitter, are we not going to spend the day using Peterborough to share dodgy maths & bar charts like we did after the European elections?

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,161
    First like Labour.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,844
    Second like Spurs
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,798
    Cyclefree said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    And what percentage of those same voters would think Raab is a suitable candidate to be PM? I better it's a lot fewer than the 47% backing Boris....
    As much as I instinctively dislike him, Gove is clearly head and shoulders above the lazy and incompetent Boris and the fatuous and ignorant Raab.
    Raab with his nonsense about proroguing Parliament is actively dangerous.
    Its the most worrying view I've seen in the race . I mean, I voted brexit too and wanted MPs to take us out long before now, but it is not worth any price for heavens sake. These Tory Brexiteers are nuts, or know it's wrong to suggest such things but only care that the party members like to hear it, which is worse.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,214
    An also-ran. Like the Conservatives.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,172
    edited June 2019
    5TH singing of Oh Jeeeeremy Cooorrrbyn required
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037
    Leave secured 60.9% of the vote in Peterborough in 2016 and only 51% of the vote in Peterborough in 2019

    Labour are not a Remain party.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,042
    Nigel was foolish doing this letter thing today. That stunt was obviously planned when he thought TBP was going to win the by-election. Persisting with it makes him look at bit of a chump.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,152
    Mayor Khan's London:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48555889
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,288
    Tissue_Price said:

    Leave secured 60.9% of the vote in Peterborough in 2016 and only 51% of the vote in Peterborough in 2019

    Labour are not a Remain party.

    They are when it suits.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,172
    I see Jess Phillips and Wes Streeting have slapped ass faces this morning.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Nigel was foolish doing this letter thing today. That stunt was obviously planned when he thought TBP was going to win the by-election. Persisting with it makes him look at bit of a chump.

    I did the Santa Claus joke. Nobody laughed... :(
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    edited June 2019
    Richard N FPT

    No problem, it’s forgotten

    Thanks sir.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916
    brokenwheel said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Leave secured 60.9% of the vote in Peterborough in 2016 and only 51% of the vote in Peterborough in 2019

    Labour are not a Remain party.

    They are when it suits.
    "These are my principles. And if you don't like them...well, I have others..."

    Groucho Marx
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,006
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Nigel was foolish doing this letter thing today. That stunt was obviously planned when he thought TBP was going to win the by-election. Persisting with it makes him look at bit of a chump.

    Nigel a bit of a chump? You're sure about that? If also, he's improving!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916
    @AlastairMeeks , we've been getting good articles recently so I forget to thank people, but that was a particularly good article. Thank you.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,303
    I suppose perspective and context is everything, but given the current national situation I'm not sure I would say the result was terrible for the Tories. Very poor certainly but their vote held up more than was to be expected. Suggests if they find a way of dealing with Brexit* they may be able to claw voters back from the Brexit Party.

    But yes, certainly a good result for Labour however you play it.

    *Yes, I am well aware that looks to be an impossible task.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,016
    bigjohnowls said:

    I see Jess Phillips and Wes Streeting have slapped ass faces this morning.

    No wonder you Jezzites don't like those two.

    Jess, Wes...Jes, Wess...Je, Wess...JEWS!!
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,611
    bigjohnowls said:

    I see Jess Phillips and Wes Streeting have slapped ass faces this morning.

    They had spent so long perfecting their tweets about Labour being a disaster after we lost and needing change at the top...

    Can hardly blame them for being a bit cross when Jezza comes through smelling of roses again :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,638
    numbertwelve said:

    I suppose perspective and context is everything, but given the current national situation I'm not sure I would say the result was terrible for the Tories. Very poor certainly but their vote held up more than was to be expected. Suggests if they find a way of dealing with Brexit* they may be able to claw voters back from the Brexit Party.

    But yes, certainly a good result for Labour however you play it.

    *Yes, I am well aware that looks to be an impossible task.

    Yes. The unknown, other than as you say the actual delivery of Brexit, is whether the whole 'politics is broken' line actually takes hold and stays there even after Brexit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,006
    In other news, looks like no World Cup cricket today. Which means that both Pakistan and Sri Lanka will move above England in the table.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,194
    6 and 8 Given current polling the Tories could have come 4th in Peterborough behind the LDs so Paul Bristow showed he was an effective enough candidate to prevent Tory meltdown. Indeed if Boris becomes leader and gets a Tory majority Bristow could well still be the next MP for the city
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,701
    Good stuff - hard to disagree.

    BXP is not going to get ground-games and inside constituency knowledge given the way that it is set up so will always rely on national messaging and momentum. That means its fortunes will depend on what other parties do around Brexit. On that basis, you'd expect it to significantly under-perform its current polling in a general election campaign. Its only role will be to cause damage - mostly to the Tories if the demographics identified in Chaminda Jayanetti's research are correct.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,288
    edited June 2019
    FPT;
    Pulpstar said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    rottenborough said:

    One of my favourite charts that Mike shows is the share of votes for only Labour and Tory voters. So looking at the change in the Labour share of the Tory/Labour combined vote we get:

    Witney: 2.8 pp
    Richmond Park*: -9.9 pp
    Sleaford and North Hykeham: -7.5 pp
    Copeland: -8.4 pp
    Stoke-on-Trent Central: -3.2 pp
    Lewisham East: 3.0 pp
    Newport West: -1.2 pp
    Peterborough: 8.4 pp

    * Treating Zach as the Tory.

    That is to say that whilst Labour's performance in by elections is worsening, the performance of the Tories has deteriorated at a faster rate - especially in Peterborough.
    You'll see it again Brecon even as the Labour vote collapses to rubble.
    The Labour vote in Brecon is really down to the bone, I can't see it going anywhere.
    It was 17.7% at the last GE. It'll be between 1000 and 2000 tops in the by election, that's plenty to fall.
    Um, why? (especially given it's likely to be a high turnout by-election)

    Yes it was 17%, only 7% above their very worst showing in the constituency. Their result improved slightly in 2017 despite it clearly being a two horse race between the Conservatives and LDs. I can't see the voters of say, Ystradglynais, suddenly finding a yearning for the LDs when they've had the opportunity before.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,006
    HYUFD said:

    6 and 8 Given current polling the Tories could have come 4th in Peterborough behind the LDs so Paul Bristow showed he was an effective enough candidate to prevent Tory meltdown. Indeed if Boris becomes leader and gets a Tory majority Bristow could well still be the next MP for the city

    Even in the blackest cloud there is a small silver lining......
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,194
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    And what percentage of those same voters would think Raab is a suitable candidate to be PM? I better it's a lot fewer than the 47% backing Boris....
    As much as I instinctively dislike him, Gove is clearly head and shoulders above the lazy and incompetent Boris and the fatuous and ignorant Raab.
    Raab with his nonsense about proroguing Parliament is actively dangerous.
    Its the most worrying view I've seen in the race . I mean, I voted brexit too and wanted MPs to take us out long before now, but it is not worth any price for heavens sake. These Tory Brexiteers are nuts, or know it's wrong to suggest such things but only care that the party members like to hear it, which is worse.

    The best way forward is Boris becomes leader, dumps the Customs Union on even a temporary basis from the political declaration but otherwise still agrees the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU.

    If he can renegotiate the backstop with the EU perhaps with Gove as Brexit Secretary all to the good as the Brady amendment showed there is a majority for that in the Commons, if not he should go into a general election promising a FTA for GB and keeping the backstop for Northern Ireland until a technical solution is found to the Irish border there. If he has to start the DUP so be it, as the European elections in NI showed it is now the Alliance Party voters who are the key swing voters in the province anyway, the DUP does not have a majority there
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,980
    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,815
    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    It was good compared to expectations. But, that is not a high bar.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,835
    edited June 2019
    I thought the odds were crazy for the Brexit Party but wrongly assumed that there must at least have been some firm basis behind the money going on them, but seemingly not.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,638
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,572
    edited June 2019
    YouGov carried out a test to show the effect of promoting for the Brexit Party. Sure enough, they get a boost.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    "Leave secured 60.9% of the vote in Peterborough in 2016 and the Brexit party secured 28.9% in 2019."

    Knockdown evidence that you can't dictate what an election is about - and if you can't in a by election, a fortiori you can't in a GE. So that's that route out of the current mess closed off.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,980
    National Fish & Chips day, folks.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.
    Not even "mildly good" but

    Tactically and short term on the plus side :

    1. Labour won
    2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
    3. Farage wet haddocked.

    Strategically - As my previous post.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,401
    "Hat tip to Matthew Goodwin for pointing this out"

    Hahaha. Very good.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,454
    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.
    Not even "mildly good" but

    Tactically and short term on the plus side :

    1. Labour won
    2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
    3. Farage wet haddocked.

    Strategically - As my previous post.
    Labour also won a seat that they should really have lost due to the conduct of their previous MP....
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037
    edited June 2019
    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.
    Not even "mildly good" but

    Tactically and short term on the plus side :

    1. Labour won
    2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
    3. Farage wet haddocked.

    Strategically - As my previous post.
    Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.

    However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    It was good compared to expectations. But, that is not a high bar.
    Indeed Sean.

    It comes to something when edging out TBP is marked as a triumph of expectation management.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,016
    @TheJezziah and @bjo

    Time to ask for your money back:

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/06/galloway-charity-may-have-delivered-no-aid-despite-1m-donations
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,042
    As for those rallies in the constituency, Nigel might as well have stood up and cried 'Weeeeere arrrrrlriiiiiiiight'.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,980
    Wes Streeting: Many have asked how I can remain in the Labour Party given the above. I’m afraid this has become a reasonable question and the argument that staying means complicity is not without merit. I will be addressing this publicly, directly, at @LabourFirst:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,778
    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    Perhaps more accurately described as the least worst result of the night ?

    As Richard N. points out, the Tory party is so permanently fractured that a similarly poor result, replicated in a general election, is quite capable of making Labour the party of government.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,401
    Two half-baked observations:

    1. In the medium term, this is good for the Lib Dems, as it will cement Corbyn's policy of equivocation and halt any further movement towards Labour adopting a second referendum policy. The Lib Dems will continue to be the "party of Remain".

    2. On Twitter, Conservative activists are already rolling out the "vote Farage, get Corbyn" line. That's fine except I'm not sure people will believe it. If the argument is "splitting the Brexit vote will let Labour in", why will Brexiteers side for a we-don't-know-what-Brexit-we-want party (the Conservatives) rather than a Brexit-right-now party (TBP)?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,042
    edited June 2019
    Scott_P said:

    Thank goodness for that. The self-pity and sanctimoniousness that all that stirred up amongst the Leavers/Borisites was too much to bear.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,561
    Leadsom shorter than both Gove and Hunt.

    What. The. F*ck.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,980
    Tissue_Price said:

    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.
    Not even "mildly good" but

    Tactically and short term on the plus side :

    1. Labour won
    2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
    3. Farage wet haddocked.

    Strategically - As my previous post.
    Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.

    However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.
    The irony is that Conservatives are better off with a Labour win but Leavers would have been better off with a BXP win.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    Scott_P said:

    Good: though it'll be interesting to see the reasons (if, as a non-lawyer, I can parse them, that is).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,645
    Scott_P said:

    Boris!!!!!!!!!! :open_mouth:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,844
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leadsom shorter than both Gove and Hunt.

    What. The. F*ck.

    Someone’s putting a hell of a lot of cash behind her.

    (Waits for someone in her team to say that the betting markets show she’s a serious contender).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,778
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    Thank goodness for that. The self-pity and sanctimoniousness that all that stirred up amongst the Leavers/Borisites was too much to bear.
    That could well be the reason. :smile:
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,303
    eek said:

    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.
    Not even "mildly good" but

    Tactically and short term on the plus side :

    1. Labour won
    2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
    3. Farage wet haddocked.

    Strategically - As my previous post.
    Labour also won a seat that they should really have lost due to the conduct of their previous MP....
    Certainly misconduct of the previous MP does look to have been a factor in by elections in the past, though personally I don't see why that should have any bearing on who represents the constituency moving forward. If it's been a party political scandal maybe, if it's been some personal error of judgement or wilful misconduct why should that be the party's problem (unless it can be shown that the party didn't vet the candidate properly, for instance).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,194
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,611
    IanB2 said:

    Wes Streeting: Many have asked how I can remain in the Labour Party given the above. I’m afraid this has become a reasonable question and the argument that staying means complicity is not without merit. I will be addressing this publicly, directly, at @LabourFirst:

    I shall have to tell people not to give me christmas presents this year.... Wes has it organised.

    In all seriousness if they believe the rubbish they spout then they can't really justify staying. I wouldn't be sitting in a party I thought was racist. Jess would join him if she had any morals.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,844
    Scott_P said:

    Good to hear. Let political arguments be decided in the ballot box, not in the courtroom.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Tissue_Price said:

    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.
    Not even "mildly good" but

    Tactically and short term on the plus side :

    1. Labour won
    2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
    3. Farage wet haddocked.

    Strategically - As my previous post.
    Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.

    However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.
    Hhhmmm ....

    I'm conflicted. TBD "deserve" representation in the HoC as indeed I argued previously that UKIP did but Farage reduces my sympathy to almost zero.

    That said the personal shouldn't intrude on the principle.

    As for Lisa Forbes. She's damned lucky that she was the nominated candidate before her "interesting" views surfaced.

    The voters clearly decided that Forbes was the least worst of two unpalatable options.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    Good to hear. Let political arguments be decided in the ballot box, not in the courtroom.
    While the decision is right on the law as it stands, there is no public policy reason for allowing politicians to lie for profit. In most other walks of life it would be a criminal offence.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,152
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    And what percentage of those same voters would think Raab is a suitable candidate to be PM? I better it's a lot fewer than the 47% backing Boris....
    As much as I instinctively dislike him, Gove is clearly head and shoulders above the lazy and incompetent Boris and the fatuous and ignorant Raab.
    Raab with his nonsense about proroguing Parliament is actively dangerous.
    Its the most worrying view I've seen in the race . I mean, I voted brexit too and wanted MPs to take us out long before now, but it is not worth any price for heavens sake. These Tory Brexiteers are nuts, or know it's wrong to suggest such things but only care that the party members like to hear it, which is worse.

    The best way forward is Boris becomes leader, dumps the Customs Union on even a temporary basis from the political declaration but otherwise still agrees the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU.

    If he can renegotiate the backstop with the EU perhaps with Gove as Brexit Secretary all to the good as the Brady amendment showed there is a majority for that in the Commons, if not he should go into a general election promising a FTA for GB and keeping the backstop for Northern Ireland until a technical solution is found to the Irish border there. If he has to start the DUP so be it, as the European elections in NI showed it is now the Alliance Party voters who are the key swing voters in the province anyway, the DUP does not have a majority there
    The thing that Boris can do that May could never countenance is to say that if there is even a hint of bad faith going forward into the trade negotiations by the EU, he will abrogate the whole Treaty. Not his deal, never believed in it, but for now, will try to make it work.....

    Might be enough to get the WA over the line.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    edit
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Boris!!!!!!!!!! :open_mouth:
    Leave out the first two words of Rozenberg's tweet and we're there !!!!!!!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,961
    edited June 2019
    MarqueeMark said:

    The thing that Boris can do that May could never ountenance is to say that if there is even a hint of bad faith going forward into the trade negotiations by the EU, he will abrogate the whol Treaty. Not his deal, never believed in it, but for now, will try to make it work.....

    Might be enough to get the WA over the line.

    I'm not totally convinced that threatening to renege on the deal is the most fruitful approach for persuading our EU friends that they don't need a legally-binding backstop.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    You can lay Boris making final 2 at 1.4 and back him winning at 1.5. Arb opportunity if you think he's certain to win given that he makes the final 2. (Not sure how to calculate implied odds you'd be getting on that statement)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,303
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    And what percentage of those same voters would think Raab is a suitable candidate to be PM? I better it's a lot fewer than the 47% backing Boris....
    As much as I instinctively dislike him, Gove is clearly head and shoulders above the lazy and incompetent Boris and the fatuous and ignorant Raab.
    Raab with his nonsense about proroguing Parliament is actively dangerous.
    Its the most worrying view I've seen in the race . I mean, I voted brexit too and wanted MPs to take us out long before now, but it is not worth any price for heavens sake. These Tory Brexiteers are nuts, or know it's wrong to suggest such things but only care that the party members like to hear it, which is worse.

    The best way forward is Boris becomes leader, dumps the Customs Union on even a temporary basis from the political declaration but otherwise still agrees the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU.

    If he can renegotiate the backstop with the EU perhaps with Gove as Brexit Secretary all to the good as the Brady amendment showed there is a majority for that in the Commons, if not he should go into a general election promising a FTA for GB and keeping the backstop for Northern Ireland until a technical solution is found to the Irish border there. If he has to start the DUP so be it, as the European elections in NI showed it is now the Alliance Party voters who are the key swing voters in the province anyway, the DUP does not have a majority there
    The thing that Boris can do that May could never countenance is to say that if there is even a hint of bad faith going forward into the trade negotiations by the EU, he will abrogate the whol Treaty. Not his deal, never believed in it, but for now, will try to make it work.....

    Might be enough to get the WA over the line.
    You do wonder if a Brexiteer PM might be able to sell the WA (plus some tweaks) much better than May could, with May essentially being the fall gal to get it through.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037
    IanB2 said:

    Wes Streeting: Many have asked how I can remain in the Labour Party given the above. I’m afraid this has become a reasonable question and the argument that staying means complicity is not without merit. I will be addressing this publicly, directly, at @LabourFirst:

    On July 16th!!! No urgency on this, clearly...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,152
    AndyJS said:

    edit

    A Tory-Brexit accommodation would potentially smash Labour and the LibDems. Getting there is another thing......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,152
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    The thing that Boris can do that May could never ountenance is to say that if there is even a hint of bad faith going forward into the trade negotiations by the EU, he will abrogate the whol Treaty. Not his deal, never believed in it, but for now, will try to make it work.....

    Might be enough to get the WA over the line.

    I'm not totally convinced that threatening to renege on the deal is the most fruitful approach for persuading our EU friends that they don't need a legally-binding backstop.
    I'm assuming that discussion will not bear fruit.....
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037
    JackW said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.
    Not even "mildly good" but

    Tactically and short term on the plus side :

    1. Labour won
    2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
    3. Farage wet haddocked.

    Strategically - As my previous post.
    Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.

    However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.
    Hhhmmm ....

    I'm conflicted. TBD "deserve" representation in the HoC as indeed I argued previously that UKIP did but Farage reduces my sympathy to almost zero.

    That said the personal shouldn't intrude on the principle.

    As for Lisa Forbes. She's damned lucky that she was the nominated candidate before her "interesting" views surfaced.

    The voters clearly decided that Forbes was the least worst of two unpalatable options.
    A real sliding doors moment for her. Obviously all elections are, but she'd have been finished if she'd lost (whereas Mr Bristow may yet win this seat).
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037
    Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,194
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    And what percentage of those same voters would think Raab is a suitable candidate to be PM? I better it's a lot fewer than the 47% backing Boris....
    As much as I instinctively dislike him, Gove is clearly head and shoulders above the lazy and incompetent Boris and the fatuous and ignorant Raab.
    Raab with his nonsense about proroguing Parliament is actively dangerous.
    Its the most worrying view I've seen in the race . I mean, I voted brexit too and wanted MPs to take us out long before now, but it is not worth any price for heavens sake. These Tory Brexiteers are nuts, or know it's wrong to suggest such things but only care that the party members like to hear it, which is worse.

    The best way forward is Boris becomes leader, dumps the Customs Union on even a temporary basis from the political declaration but otherwise still agrees the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU.

    If he can renegotiate the backstop with the EU perhaps with Gove as Brexit Secretary all to the good as the Brady amendment showed there is a majority for that in the Commons, if not he should go into a general election promising a FTA for GB and keeping the backstop for Northern Ireland until a technical solution is found to the Irish border there. If he has to start the DUP so be it, as the European elections in NI showed it is now the Alliance Party voters who are the key swing voters in the province anyway, the DUP does not have a majority there
    The thing that Boris can do that May could never countenance is to say that if there is even a hint of bad faith going forward into the trade negotiations by the EU, he will abrogate the whole Treaty. Not his deal, never believed in it, but for now, will try to make it work.....

    Might be enough to get the WA over the line.
    As a Leaver Boris may be more trusted to deliver by Brexit backing MPs than May was as a Remainer yes
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,520
    I'm not sure #1 is correct. Both Labour and the Brexit party knew they were in the hunt, and they were the only two who were. Hence the frantic ramping and calling of activists in, the leaflets against each other, and the lack of urgency from the other parties.

    If you ignore the froth from early ballot paper verifications, actually the people with ears on the ground seemed to do well, better than journalists who turned up for a day and wrote their 'prediction' anyway.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,572
    MarqueeMark said:

    AndyJS said:

    edit

    A Tory-Brexit accommodation would potentially smash Labour and the LibDems. Getting there is another thing......
    A Tory-Brexit accommodation would remove any temptation for Labour-inclined voters to vote for the Brexit Party.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 6,716
    Labour -17%. Conservatives -25%

    The Tories are doing something to staunch their blood letting of voters.
    What are Labour doing...?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,961
    Tissue_Price said:

    Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?

    She's lost in poor visibility, but it might be a smokescreen of course.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,454
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    Good to hear. Let political arguments be decided in the ballot box, not in the courtroom.
    It's nice to know that were I a politician I can now state outright lies and unless people notice get away with it.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,288
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Labour -17%. Conservatives -25%

    The Tories are doing something to staunch their blood letting of voters.
    What are Labour doing...?

    Winning.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,042
    williamglenn said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AndyJS said:

    edit

    A Tory-Brexit accommodation would potentially smash Labour and the LibDems. Getting there is another thing......
    A Tory-Brexit accommodation would remove any temptation for Labour-inclined voters to vote for the Brexit Party.
    It would also remove the temptation for a lot of Tory-inclined voters to vote for the Tory party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,980
    williamglenn said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AndyJS said:

    edit

    A Tory-Brexit accommodation would potentially smash Labour and the LibDems. Getting there is another thing......
    A Tory-Brexit accommodation would remove any temptation for Labour-inclined voters to vote for the Brexit Party.
    And every reaction has a counter-reaction. Pressure on remainers to sort themselves out, or at the least for an effective tactical voting drive to defeat the right, would be strong.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,864
    numbertwelve said:


    You do wonder if a Brexiteer PM might be able to sell the WA (plus some tweaks) much better than May could, with May essentially being the fall gal to get it through.

    They're not going to have a good time convincing Labour MPs or the DUP, so the move is for the Brexiteer PM to sell the *referendum* that they have to concede to get the votes to pass the WA.

    It would definitely be possible for a spirited Brexit-credentialed PM to tell a good story on this. Insist that it be binding, project confidence that it will be won, pitch it as another chance to pwn the remoaners, etc etc.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 448
    So media, pundits, polls, gamblers, politicians etc etc all got it wrong again. On that basis we should probably predict that Mark Harper is going to win the Tory leadership election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,194
    edited June 2019
    MarqueeMark said:

    AndyJS said:

    edit

    A Tory-Brexit accommodation would potentially smash Labour and the LibDems. Getting there is another thing......
    Only under PR, a Boris led Tory Party remains the best bet to get a majority in the Commons for Brexit under FPTP. Getting too close to Farage though might end up leaving the combined Brexit vote just short as William Glenn alludes to, remember the Brexit Party appeals to some Labour Leave non Tories too and some moderate Leavers like Boris but not Farage.

    In the referendum Boris as frontman was key to getting Leave over 50%, as Cummings for example realised having Farage as frontman would likely have seen Leave fall short and a narrow Remain win
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,535
    brokenwheel said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Labour -17%. Conservatives -25%

    The Tories are doing something to staunch their blood letting of voters.
    What are Labour doing...?

    Winning.
    As can be evidenced by PM Corbyn and his ever increasing number of MPs?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,303
    Tissue_Price said:

    Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?

    If she's got sense she'll sit this one out. Contest has essentially developed into Johnson v Gove already (potentially Hunt might squeak through in place of Gove but he's the only one I see doing it). She'd be better to stay out of it, back the person who looks likely to win with a view to keeping her MOD job and keeping her powder dry for next time.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 6,716
    brokenwheel said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Labour -17%. Conservatives -25%

    The Tories are doing something to staunch their blood letting of voters.
    What are Labour doing...?

    Winning.
    Indeed! And for how long will we keep winning whilst we hemorrhage voters like this? Especially if the Tories stop doing the same.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,172
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Labour -17%. Conservatives -25%

    The Tories are doing something to staunch their blood letting of voters.
    What are Labour doing...?

    Winning By Elections with increased majorities on reduced turnouts thats what.

    Celebrate Comrade

    Or more likely for you join the Wes Streeting Jess Phillips slapped ass fest.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Tissue_Price said:

    Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?

    Better stay in port for the afternnon .... "Sink the Bismarck!" on Film4 presently .... but which Conservative is that doomed battleship ?!?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,114
    Scott_P said:

    Is Ball going to refund his supporters now? Thought not. :smiley:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,980
    edited June 2019
    numbertwelve said:

    eek said:

    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.
    Not even "mildly good" but

    Tactically and short term on the plus side :

    1. Labour won
    2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
    3. Farage wet haddocked.

    Strategically - As my previous post.
    Labour also won a seat that they should really have lost due to the conduct of their previous MP....
    Certainly misconduct of the previous MP does look to have been a factor in by elections in the past, though personally I don't see why that should have any bearing on who represents the constituency moving forward. If it's been a party political scandal maybe, if it's been some personal error of judgement or wilful misconduct why should that be the party's problem (unless it can be shown that the party didn't vet the candidate properly, for instance).
    An additional argument from Eastleigh that LibDem MPs consoled themselves with during the coalition...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,980
    El_Capitano said:

    Two half-baked observations:

    1. In the medium term, this is good for the Lib Dems, as it will cement Corbyn's policy of equivocation and halt any further movement towards Labour adopting a second referendum policy. The Lib Dems will continue to be the "party of Remain".

    2. On Twitter, Conservative activists are already rolling out the "vote Farage, get Corbyn" line. That's fine except I'm not sure people will believe it. If the argument is "splitting the Brexit vote will let Labour in", why will Brexiteers side for a we-don't-know-what-Brexit-we-want party (the Conservatives) rather than a Brexit-right-now party (TBP)?


    Given the views of most Tory activists nowadays, it is pretty ripe if they think trying to frighten voters with him will be an effective strategy against Labour. These are the same activists who mostly voted for Farage themselves just a few weeks back.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334
    Tissue_Price said:

    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.
    Not even "mildly good" but

    Tactically and short term on the plus side :

    1. Labour won
    2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
    3. Farage wet haddocked.

    Strategically - As my previous post.
    Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.

    However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.
    I think the Tories overestimate the electoral damage that continual accusations of antisemitism might cause Labour. This issue has been well-aired, any Labour voters who are going to desert the Party because of it have already gone and there is now such a welter of accusations and counter accusations that it is hard to separate fact from spin (which is not in any way to excuse Labour or say that there is no problem) but daily "revelations" about something somebody said on twitter are devaluing the currency and may well be having the opposite effect to that intended.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,630
    Tissue_Price said:

    Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?

    Tied up in Pompey with CODLOG problems.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,092
    MarqueeMark said:

    AndyJS said:

    edit

    A Tory-Brexit accommodation would potentially smash Labour and the LibDems. Getting there is another thing......
    It really would.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    El_Capitano said:

    2. On Twitter, Conservative activists are already rolling out the "vote Farage, get Corbyn" line. That's fine except I'm not sure people will believe it. If the argument is "splitting the Brexit vote will let Labour in", why will Brexiteers side for a we-don't-know-what-Brexit-we-want party (the Conservatives) rather than a Brexit-right-now party (TBP)?

    This was aired on the Daily Politics and confirmed by Prof Curtice (pbuh)

    A vote for the Brexit candidate risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.

    A vote for the Tory candidate in the same seat risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.

    Without a pact, the parties of Brexit are locked in a FPTP deadly embrace.

    Shame...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,114
    Scott_P said:

    El_Capitano said:

    2. On Twitter, Conservative activists are already rolling out the "vote Farage, get Corbyn" line. That's fine except I'm not sure people will believe it. If the argument is "splitting the Brexit vote will let Labour in", why will Brexiteers side for a we-don't-know-what-Brexit-we-want party (the Conservatives) rather than a Brexit-right-now party (TBP)?

    This was aired on the Daily Politics and confirmed by Prof Curtice (pbuh)

    A vote for the Brexit candidate risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.

    A vote for the Tory candidate in the same seat risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.

    Without a pact, the parties of Brexit are locked in a FPTP deadly embrace.

    Shame...
    Same can be said for the remain parties, although one is already extinct.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,630
    JackW said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?

    Better stay in port for the afternnon .... "Sink the Bismarck!" on Film4 presently .... but which Conservative is that doomed battleship ?!?
    The Bismarck was lost by confused bickering at the top (Lütjens vs Lindemann) and lack of discipline in communications so it's an apt comparison.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,844
    anothernick said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.
    Not even "mildly good" but

    Tactically and short term on the plus side :

    1. Labour won
    2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
    3. Farage wet haddocked.

    Strategically - As my previous post.
    Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.

    However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.
    I think the Tories overestimate the electoral damage that continual accusations of antisemitism might cause Labour. This issue has been well-aired, any Labour voters who are going to desert the Party because of it have already gone and there is now such a welter of accusations and counter accusations that it is hard to separate fact from spin (which is not in any way to excuse Labour or say that there is no problem) but daily "revelations" about something somebody said on twitter are devaluing the currency and may well be having the opposite effect to that intended.
    Tories like Jess Phillips, and Wes Streeting, and Tom Watson?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,535
    Scott_P said:

    El_Capitano said:

    2. On Twitter, Conservative activists are already rolling out the "vote Farage, get Corbyn" line. That's fine except I'm not sure people will believe it. If the argument is "splitting the Brexit vote will let Labour in", why will Brexiteers side for a we-don't-know-what-Brexit-we-want party (the Conservatives) rather than a Brexit-right-now party (TBP)?

    This was aired on the Daily Politics and confirmed by Prof Curtice (pbuh)

    A vote for the Brexit candidate risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.

    A vote for the Tory candidate in the same seat risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.

    Without a pact, the parties of Brexit are locked in a FPTP deadly embrace.

    Shame...
    Fingers crossed a new Tory leader can resolve this with some clarity.

    What is going to change on Labour's side?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    YouGov, latest poll:

    BRX 26%
    LD 20%
    Lab 20%
    Con 18%
    Greens 9%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,980
    Breaking: Jewish Labour Movement calling for their new MP to be suspended from the Labour Party
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 575
    The Conservative Party is perhaps the Bismark de nos jours.
    JackW said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Any sign of HMS Mordaunt on the horizon?

    Better stay in port for the afternnon .... "Sink the Bismarck!" on Film4 presently .... but which Conservative is that doomed battleship ?!?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,092
    Sandpit said:

    anothernick said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    7) This was a really good result for Labour.

    Er .....

    1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
    2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
    3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
    4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
    5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.

    Probably fair to say that it was a mildly good result when an opposition on the cusp of becoming the government should have got a stonkingly good result.
    Not even "mildly good" but

    Tactically and short term on the plus side :

    1. Labour won
    2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
    3. Farage wet haddocked.

    Strategically - As my previous post.
    Cynically, as a Conservative, it's far better that Labour's antisemitic candidate won: that will dog them both locally and nationally - as opposed to TBP getting a toehold in Parliament.

    However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.
    I think the Tories overestimate the electoral damage that continual accusations of antisemitism might cause Labour. This issue has been well-aired, any Labour voters who are going to desert the Party because of it have already gone and there is now such a welter of accusations and counter accusations that it is hard to separate fact from spin (which is not in any way to excuse Labour or say that there is no problem) but daily "revelations" about something somebody said on twitter are devaluing the currency and may well be having the opposite effect to that intended.
    Tories like Jess Phillips, and Wes Streeting, and Tom Watson?
    To Corbynistas these are the worst sort of 'Tories'.
This discussion has been closed.