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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Peterborough Chronicle. About that by-election

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,591

    kinabalu said:

    For me it's clear re the exit date betting - Mrs May is the leader until the new one is chosen.

    The word 'acting' can be ignored.

    Yes, I used to take the contrary view, but the Betfair clarification that I posted here seemed fairly clear - as long as she was any sort of leader, they would consider her to be leader.
    That clarification was only made to selected customers, thus creating a false market. They ought to have posted it to their rules. I have also complained about that.
    They’ve also made statements (copied on here) that they’d “settle this market on 7th June” based on Mrs May’s official resignation.

    Betfair’s customer service have seriously screwed this one up, and they can’t void the market because there’s now six figures in commissions resting on it settling one way or the other.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,982
    edited June 2019
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I've been here a while so I may have said it before, but anyone wanting work done on their house should avoid someone called Steven Gale. He may tout himself as a master builder, but he's featured on Rogue Traders and his handiwork means my parents may need to have every socket in the house rewired due to shoddy work.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,429
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

    New York has just overtaken London as the world's principal financial centre, according to a report released recently
    I thought it always was number one in that respect. Interesting that London has recently overtaken NYC in terms of population.
    The stat I find remarkable is that London has only surpassed its 1939 population in the last few years
    There were probably fewer housing units then as well.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

    New York has just overtaken London as the world's principal financial centre, according to a report released recently
    I thought it always was number one in that respect. Interesting that London has recently overtaken NYC in terms of population.
    The stat I find remarkable is that London has only surpassed its 1939 population in the last few years
    It began to rebound under Thatcher. 1985 was the nadir, when it was just 6 million and small change.... Huge growth since; and still it grows.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,510

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    To quote the Betfair terms:

    When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

    Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.

    In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

    Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

    Using the Electoral Commission register seems a reasonable way to settle it. If the Tories today vacate the Leader post with the Electoral Commission then it is today. If May remains official leader then she is still official leader.
    Surely if she were still official leader the party would not have stated that she would be _acting_ leader. There would be no need.
    Except there's been much speculation that May is not leader after today, so the comment from the 1922 that she remains Acting Leader could be confirmation that contrary to speculation she does indeed remain officially the Leader.
    In that case they should have said she has resigned as leader, but will remain leader.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    Byronic said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Byronic said:


    I refer the Honourable Member for Blithering Away on PB Despite The Warning, to the previous warning by TheScreamingEagles

    This is irritating for me (as I am not him, whatever you believe) and utterly tedious for everyone else.

    I genuinely believe you, but you do sound uncannily like him (which is a great compliment). Had you thought of cooking up an idea for a thriller and whacking a draft first chapter off to HarperCollins or somewhere?

    At least that is funny. Maybe the similarity comes from having lurked so long. Anyway, let us euthanise this debate, once and for all, but in a gentle, loving way, and talk of cabbages and kings, and all kinds of AV.
    This is all beginning to seem like some kind of weird version of Turing's Test.

    Can we tell whether the person behind the handle is really SeanT or not?
    Maybe SeanT is really Byronic.

    Or perhaps all of PB is just the hallucination of a 1990s-era SeanT, lying in a ditch on a South American mountaintop, his drug-induced stupour leading him to dream of a future where the Conservatives had a terrible leader and were tearing themselves up over Europe ;)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,429
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    To quote the Betfair terms:

    When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

    Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.

    In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

    Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

    Using the Electoral Commission register seems a reasonable way to settle it. If the Tories today vacate the Leader post with the Electoral Commission then it is today. If May remains official leader then she is still official leader.
    Surely if she were still official leader the party would not have stated that she would be _acting_ leader. There would be no need.
    Except there's been much speculation that May is not leader after today, so the comment from the 1922 that she remains Acting Leader could be confirmation that contrary to speculation she does indeed remain officially the Leader.
    In that case they should have said she has resigned as leader, but will remain leader.
    Nothing has changed?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 32,735

    DavidL said:

    A couple more tentative takes before I read the thread. People are willing to vote tactically to beat TBP. This time Lib Dem’s seem to have voted Labour which is why their vote was up only modestly.

    Secondly, the referendum brought out many non voters. They may have gone back to not voting again. And who could blame them? Democracy has turned out to be a bit of a joke. We don’t want to hear what they have to say.

    The turnout at the Peterborough by-election was 48%. I think that's historically quite good for a by-election and it comes after the electors in the constituency have had separate ballots for the recall petition, local elections and European elections.

    That looks like a determination to go out and vote to me.
    I think you have missed the point. My guess is that the turnout in the referendum would have been nearer 70%. The question of whether there has been any kind of swing really depends on who voted. 20%+ of the electorate didn't on this occasion. My suggestion is that generally non voters who turned out for the referendum would form a disproportionate share of this.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,691

    Byronic said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Byronic said:


    I refer the Honourable Member for Blithering Away on PB Despite The Warning, to the previous warning by TheScreamingEagles

    This is irritating for me (as I am not him, whatever you believe) and utterly tedious for everyone else.

    I genuinely believe you, but you do sound uncannily like him (which is a great compliment). Had you thought of cooking up an idea for a thriller and whacking a draft first chapter off to HarperCollins or somewhere?

    At least that is funny. Maybe the similarity comes from having lurked so long. Anyway, let us euthanise this debate, once and for all, but in a gentle, loving way, and talk of cabbages and kings, and all kinds of AV.
    This is all beginning to seem like some kind of weird version of Turing's Test.

    Can we tell whether the person behind the handle is really SeanT or not?
    Surely SeanT himself has an unfair advantage in that test?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,150

    kinabalu said:

    For me it's clear re the exit date betting - Mrs May is the leader until the new one is chosen.

    The word 'acting' can be ignored.

    Yes, I used to take the contrary view, but the Betfair clarification that I posted here seemed fairly clear - as long as she was any sort of leader, they would consider her to be leader.

    Perhaps we can work it out like this: If aliens landed in London today, and said "Take me to your leader", who would they go to?

    Hope that helps.

    "Please, put the death ray down - and wait until July....."
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,743
    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    To quote the Betfair terms:

    When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

    Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.

    In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

    Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

    Using the Electoral Commission register seems a reasonable way to settle it. If the Tories today vacate the Leader post with the Electoral Commission then it is today. If May remains official leader then she is still official leader.
    Surely if she were still official leader the party would not have stated that she would be _acting_ leader. There would be no need.
    Except there's been much speculation that May is not leader after today, so the comment from the 1922 that she remains Acting Leader could be confirmation that contrary to speculation she does indeed remain officially the Leader.
    In that case they should have said she has resigned as leader, but will remain leader.
    Nothing has changed?
    :lol:

    And she may yet still be PM at the next GE.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,407
    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

    That doesn’t sound wrong.

    From my angle (broadly speaking, advertising, consumer goods, digital tech) the clear winner is Amsterdam - a great place to relocate your European HQ or central marketing function to.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,743

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I've been here a while so I may have said it before, but anyone wanting work done on their house should avoid someone called Steven Gale. He may tout himself as a master builder, but he's featured on Rogue Traders and his handiwork means my parents may need to have every socket in the house rewired due to shoddy work.

    Sorry to hear that.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

    That doesn’t sound wrong.

    From my angle (broadly speaking, advertising, consumer goods, digital tech) the clear winner is Amsterdam - a great place to relocate your European HQ or central marketing function to.
    Yes. When the Irish boast that (post-Brexit) the biggest English speaking city in the EU will be Dublin, they obviously haven't realised that in reality, that crown goes to Stockholm or Amsterdam, and Amsterdam is much nearer Paris, Brussels and Berlin. And lots of them ALSO speak German. And French.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,150
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    A couple more tentative takes before I read the thread. People are willing to vote tactically to beat TBP. This time Lib Dem’s seem to have voted Labour which is why their vote was up only modestly.

    Secondly, the referendum brought out many non voters. They may have gone back to not voting again. And who could blame them? Democracy has turned out to be a bit of a joke. We don’t want to hear what they have to say.

    The turnout at the Peterborough by-election was 48%. I think that's historically quite good for a by-election and it comes after the electors in the constituency have had separate ballots for the recall petition, local elections and European elections.

    That looks like a determination to go out and vote to me.
    I think you have missed the point. My guess is that the turnout in the referendum would have been nearer 70%. The question of whether there has been any kind of swing really depends on who voted. 20%+ of the electorate didn't on this occasion. My suggestion is that generally non voters who turned out for the referendum would form a disproportionate share of this.
    The council area had a referendum turnout of 72%. Given that the city centre was probably lower than the middle class areas south of the river, not in the parliamentary seat, 70% or a tad below is probably about right for the constituency. But long run GE turnout for the seat is about 65%. So there is about 15% who normally vote, but skipped the by-election. We don’t know who they are - usually you’d suspect the DE census classes. But disaffection with politics right now is spread fairly even.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,085
    edited June 2019
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    To quote the Betfair terms:

    When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

    Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.

    In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

    Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

    Using the Electoral Commission register seems a reasonable way to settle it. If the Tories today vacate the Leader post with the Electoral Commission then it is today. If May remains official leader then she is still official leader.
    Surely if she were still official leader the party would not have stated that she would be _acting_ leader. There would be no need.
    Except there's been much speculation that May is not leader after today, so the comment from the 1922 that she remains Acting Leader could be confirmation that contrary to speculation she does indeed remain officially the Leader.
    In that case they should have said she has resigned as leader, but will remain leader.
    "Acting leader" is just a more elegant way of phrasing it. Given that a leadership election is underway, it's clear that her remaining days are numbered.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,691
    edited June 2019

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,982
    Mr. Borough, cheers. It's not the end of the world, it's just a shitty consequence for honest people who had the misfortune to encounter a wretch.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,429

    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

    That doesn’t sound wrong.

    From my angle (broadly speaking, advertising, consumer goods, digital tech) the clear winner is Amsterdam - a great place to relocate your European HQ or central marketing function to.
    I've invested a significant amount in an adtech company and the CEO there says much the same for that industry. They are staying in London but their EU licencing issues are going to be solved by a 10-20 person office in Amsterdam rather than moving the whole lot to Berlin as many were predicting at the time.

    In other news I hope you were able to get in for Looker, @rcs1000 I hope you did too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,591
    edited June 2019

    AndyJS said:
    The photoshop folk have given Leadsom odd looking hair there. She looks like Joan of arc.
    That's a pretty unfortunate comparison for a Europhobe. :(
    It's a pretty unfortunate comparison for anyone really.
    I don't know: Joan of Arc was hot (or at least Jane Wiedlin playing her was). And I'm not just saying that because a dear friend of mine was a spitting image of her. ;)

    http://store.janewiedlin.com/signed-by-jane-joan-of-arc-w-sword-in-bill-ted/
    Jane Wiedlin from the Go-Gos? Not heard from her since she was swimming with dolphins in Rush Hour
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    I'm not even sure it will be that long....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,757

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    The Tories actually did better than expected in Peterborough and Boris as Leader will win back voters lost to the Brexit Party
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,391

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    There was a horrid story on Yahoo the other day about a teenage girl who decided to be euthanised.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,150
    HYUFD said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    The Tories actually did better than expected in Peterborough and Boris as Leader will win back voters lost to the Brexit Party
    They’ll be passing others on their way back.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,429
    That's the other thing about Vilnius that works in its favour, the local, err, talent is a lot more attractive than it is in Frankfurt...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,085

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    There was a horrid story on Yahoo the other day about a teenage girl who decided to be euthanised.
    It was fake news...

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,591
    edited June 2019
    For @Morris_Dancer and other F1 fans - in unsurprising news the new Mercedes engines saw Lewis and Valtteri a second faster than everyone else in P1. Make of that what you will, I’ll be suggesting that the bet posted the other day at 16/1(?) for them winning every race this season is probably good value.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,691

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    There was a horrid story on Yahoo the other day about a teenage girl who decided to be euthanised.
    Well thank you for not flagging it up.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,429

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    There was a horrid story on Yahoo the other day about a teenage girl who decided to be euthanised.
    The Times had a completely ridiculous story on that, the headline said "depressed teenager" then I looked up the story and she was gang raped at 11 and sexually assaulted at 14 by a local rape gang.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    For me it's clear re the exit date betting - Mrs May is the leader until the new one is chosen.

    The word 'acting' can be ignored.

    Yes, I used to take the contrary view, but the Betfair clarification that I posted here seemed fairly clear - as long as she was any sort of leader, they would consider her to be leader.
    That clarification was only made to selected customers, thus creating a false market. They ought to have posted it to their rules. I have also complained about that.
    They’ve also made statements (copied on here) that they’d “settle this market on 7th June” based on Mrs May’s official resignation.

    Betfair’s customer service have seriously screwed this one up, and they can’t void the market because there’s now six figures in commissions resting on it settling one way or the other.
    They also can't void it because I win on either outcome - and did so before all this mayhem. So I would be very unhappy with that settlement too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,757
    edited June 2019
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    The Tories actually did better than expected in Peterborough and Boris as Leader will win back voters lost to the Brexit Party
    They’ll be passing others on their way back.
    The polling evidence suggests they won't.

    According to Yougov, Boris as Tory leader takes the Tories up to 29% and the Brexit Party down to 13% while leaving the Labour and LD ratings unchanged



  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 29,837
    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    Good enough for the dump
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,764
    Boris up one to 49 on Wiki - not sure who the latest addition is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,177
    MaxPB said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    There was a horrid story on Yahoo the other day about a teenage girl who decided to be euthanised.
    The Times had a completely ridiculous story on that, the headline said "depressed teenager" then I looked up the story and she was gang raped at 11 and sexually assaulted at 14 by a local rape gang.
    There is a bit more to it than that, and she died of her anorexia not euthanasia. A very tragic story.


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,591

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    There was a horrid story on Yahoo the other day about a teenage girl who decided to be euthanised.
    17 year old who was allowed to starve herself to death, very sad story.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,357

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    For me it's clear re the exit date betting - Mrs May is the leader until the new one is chosen.

    The word 'acting' can be ignored.

    Yes, I used to take the contrary view, but the Betfair clarification that I posted here seemed fairly clear - as long as she was any sort of leader, they would consider her to be leader.
    That clarification was only made to selected customers, thus creating a false market. They ought to have posted it to their rules. I have also complained about that.
    They’ve also made statements (copied on here) that they’d “settle this market on 7th June” based on Mrs May’s official resignation.

    Betfair’s customer service have seriously screwed this one up, and they can’t void the market because there’s now six figures in commissions resting on it settling one way or the other.
    They also can't void it because I win on either outcome - and did so before all this mayhem. So I would be very unhappy with that settlement too.
    Same here. I'm very green on Q2 and Q3 and have had a 200/1 flutter on Q4 given Mrs May's track record of clinging on (now 320/1)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,429
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    There was a horrid story on Yahoo the other day about a teenage girl who decided to be euthanised.
    The Times had a completely ridiculous story on that, the headline said "depressed teenager" then I looked up the story and she was gang raped at 11 and sexually assaulted at 14 by a local rape gang.
    There is a bit more to it than that, and she died of her anorexia not euthanasia. A very tragic story.


    What were her mental health issues brought on by, I wonder?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Somewhat offtopic, I have to schlep from Richmond to Paddington to see an ancient friend. I haven't loitered in Paddington in centuries. Is it still horrible? Can any Londoners on this site recommend a decent drinking place around there?

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,158

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    I think you are wrong there.The conservative party is always thirsty for power and pragmatic to achieve it.It will do what is necessary to stay there.They nearly killed the Lib Dems off in and after the coalition.They will do the same to the Brexit Party.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,085
    HYUFD said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    The Tories actually did better than expected in Peterborough and Boris as Leader will win back voters lost to the Brexit Party
    The Tories performed in line with the latest YouGov poll that has them in 4th place. It was relative underperformance of the Lib Dems and overperformance of Labour that made the difference.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,886



    This is all beginning to seem like some kind of weird version of Turing's Test.

    Can we tell whether the person behind the handle is really SeanT or not?

    Why do we care? Let Byronic flourish on his, her or its own merits.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    MaxPB said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    There was a horrid story on Yahoo the other day about a teenage girl who decided to be euthanised.
    The Times had a completely ridiculous story on that, the headline said "depressed teenager" then I looked up the story and she was gang raped at 11 and sexually assaulted at 14 by a local rape gang.
    Christ. That's just horrible.

    *stares out at the rain*
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 6,737
    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,150
    “It is no good to see Labour people demanding loyalty on the basis of being the lesser of two evils, says Wes Streeting MP”

    https://t.co/1lG3BYtcyy
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,591

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    For me it's clear re the exit date betting - Mrs May is the leader until the new one is chosen.

    The word 'acting' can be ignored.

    Yes, I used to take the contrary view, but the Betfair clarification that I posted here seemed fairly clear - as long as she was any sort of leader, they would consider her to be leader.
    That clarification was only made to selected customers, thus creating a false market. They ought to have posted it to their rules. I have also complained about that.
    They’ve also made statements (copied on here) that they’d “settle this market on 7th June” based on Mrs May’s official resignation.

    Betfair’s customer service have seriously screwed this one up, and they can’t void the market because there’s now six figures in commissions resting on it settling one way or the other.
    They also can't void it because I win on either outcome - and did so before all this mayhem. So I would be very unhappy with that settlement too.
    Indeed.

    I had a much better position on Q2 and June previously, but had to lay off even after the PM’s announcement, because Betfair made many contradictory statements (that were posted here) about how they might settle these markets.

    If those who posted here statements from Betfair about these markets at the time would wish to identify themselves and join a class action at IBAS, I’d imagine there’s a good case to void the markets, even though I think they should be settled for June and Q2.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,407
    MaxPB said:

    That's the other thing about Vilnius that works in its favour, the local, err, talent is a lot more attractive than it is in Frankfurt...

    I don’t know. I have quite a thing for German speaking women. They always seem pleasantly astonished to meet anyone with a sense of humour.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,391

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    There was a horrid story on Yahoo the other day about a teenage girl who decided to be euthanised.
    Well thank you for not flagging it up.
    You're welcome, thank you for not chortling about the topic and therefore not reminding me about it.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Yeah, that does seem rather odd. Oldsters depart.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,150
    Just a reminder that anyone itching to vote in the LibDem leadership contest needs to join up in the next six hours.
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Yeah, that does seem rather odd. Oldsters depart.
    Yeah, the nite clubs aren't what they used to be.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,982
    Mr. Sandpit, it might be... which is depressing.

    More annoyed that the Hamilton win specials, 12 at 4, and 14 at 19, were suspended every time I tried placing one.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,510
    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    To quote the Betfair terms:

    When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

    Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.

    In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

    Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

    Using the Electoral Commission register seems a reasonable way to settle it. If the Tories today vacate the Leader post with the Electoral Commission then it is today. If May remains official leader then she is still official leader.
    Surely if she were still official leader the party would not have stated that she would be _acting_ leader. There would be no need.
    Except there's been much speculation that May is not leader after today, so the comment from the 1922 that she remains Acting Leader could be confirmation that contrary to speculation she does indeed remain officially the Leader.
    In that case they should have said she has resigned as leader, but will remain leader.
    Nothing has changed?
    Meet the new boss ...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,150
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Yeah, that does seem rather odd. Oldsters depart.
    Yes, people are tending to leave London in late middle age. But recently the inflow of younger people has also been stemmed because of the high costs involved with taking a job in the capital, as reported this week. I guess that the baby boomer demographic bulge working its way up the age profile means that the retirement age group is destined to expand despite the loss of those moving to the provinces.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,391
    Ffs she CAN'T. You've missed your chance. Plump for someone, preferably not Boris so things stay interesting.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,177
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    There was a horrid story on Yahoo the other day about a teenage girl who decided to be euthanised.
    The Times had a completely ridiculous story on that, the headline said "depressed teenager" then I looked up the story and she was gang raped at 11 and sexually assaulted at 14 by a local rape gang.
    There is a bit more to it than that, and she died of her anorexia not euthanasia. A very tragic story.


    What were her mental health issues brought on by, I wonder?
    She was sexually assaulted aged 11, then raped at 14 by two men. She wrote a book about it. Where did you get the story of the rape gang from?

    I once worked in a psychiatric unit specialising in eating disorders. They are very complex and difficult to treat. Not infrequently there is a history of sexual abuse, often incestuous, but there are many other factors too. Anorexia severe enough to require inpatient care has a high mortality rate, roughly 25% at age 30.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,757
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    The Tories actually did better than expected in Peterborough and Boris as Leader will win back voters lost to the Brexit Party
    The Tories performed in line with the latest YouGov poll that has them in 4th place. It was relative underperformance of the Lib Dems and overperformance of Labour that made the difference.
    On current polling it would likely be a Corbyn minority government, my premise was based on Boris as Leader winning back voters lost to the Brexit Party as the polling suggests he would.

    The Tories were also 4th in Peterborough in the European Parliament elections but third last night
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    IanB2 said:

    Just a reminder that anyone itching to vote in the LibDem leadership contest needs to join up in the next six hours.

    Would you kindly send me the updated LibDem membership list ....

    Asking for a friend of a fine food manufacturer of my acquaint ....
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Yeah, that does seem rather odd. Oldsters depart.
    Not so much. There has been a trend of oldsters moving back into the cities because it is easier to get around, hospital care is better etc etc.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited June 2019
    The cross party group which forced May to ask for an extension think they have another plan.

    And this is where Bercow is key .

    Getting an emergency debate is pretty easy , the government can’t stop that . Normally you can’t vote on motions and amendments in those debates that’s where Bercow comes in.

    Regardless of his legal clerks Bercow can do whatever he likes . There might be furore but will he really care .
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,177

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,150
    Yorkcity said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    I think you are wrong there.The conservative party is always thirsty for power and pragmatic to achieve it.It will do what is necessary to stay there.They nearly killed the Lib Dems off in and after the coalition.They will do the same to the Brexit Party.
    I agree that those who are suggesting the Tory party will somehow disappear are overstating the case. There is clearly an enduring constituency there, provided the party can come to terms with the loss of its primacy amongst business and the middle classes and embrace a more cultural dimension to its politics.

    Under PR, the ‘new’ Conservatives would be an enduring part of our political scene.

    What is facing a mortal threat is the future of the Conservatives as a potential majority government under our current system. As Richard_N spelled out in the last thread, every Brexit outcome loses them a chunk of support, and by the time they recover from its ramifications our politics may well look very different.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,591

    Mr. Sandpit, it might be... which is depressing.

    More annoyed that the Hamilton win specials, 12 at 4, and 14 at 19, were suspended every time I tried placing one.

    14 wins at 19 is definitely a good value loser at best, if you can get on it. I’d say it should be 6 or 7 based on how such things have played out previously.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Housing and populism

    David Adler & Ben Ansel"

    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402382.2019.1615322
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,916
    Interesting that Boris seems to be in the top 2 of all categories bar the 2nd referendum.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,591
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    There was a horrid story on Yahoo the other day about a teenage girl who decided to be euthanised.
    The Times had a completely ridiculous story on that, the headline said "depressed teenager" then I looked up the story and she was gang raped at 11 and sexually assaulted at 14 by a local rape gang.
    There is a bit more to it than that, and she died of her anorexia not euthanasia. A very tragic story.


    What were her mental health issues brought on by, I wonder?
    She was sexually assaulted aged 11, then raped at 14 by two men. She wrote a book about it. Where did you get the story of the rape gang from?

    I once worked in a psychiatric unit specialising in eating disorders. They are very complex and difficult to treat. Not infrequently there is a history of sexual abuse, often incestuous, but there are many other factors too. Anorexia severe enough to require inpatient care has a high mortality rate, roughly 25% at age 30.
    That’s horrific, and clearly an area where more publicity is needed.

    In the Dutch case, where it appears that a child was allowed to starve herself to death in the presence of medical professionals, would a similar case in the U.K. not result in her being sectioned and kept alive by the doctors present?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,914

    No wonder people vote to leave the EU, when you hear the utter nonsense that they believe about how it controls our entire lives. Here is a classic example. Last night's loser explaining how the EU controls what time kids go to school, what is allowed on school meals menu, the curriculum, exam system and more besides.

    Problem is how do you counter this stuff with low-information voters?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 35,297

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Yeah, that does seem rather odd. Oldsters depart.
    Not so much. There has been a trend of oldsters moving back into the cities because it is easier to get around, hospital care is better etc etc.
    "I see OLD people! They don't know they're OLD!"
    "Where are they?"
    "Everywhere!"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,085
    OllyT said:

    Problem is how do you counter this stuff with low-information voters?

    People believe what they want to believe, so you need to give them a reason not to want to believe it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,916
    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    To 2041 was a 25 year period from 2016. Not a 7 year period as quoted above.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,912

    This is all beginning to seem like some kind of weird version of Turing's Test. Can we tell whether the person behind the handle is really SeanT or not?

    Identity of Indescernibles (Google it)

    @Byronic, a young commentator on PB, gets irritated by people remarking that he sounds exactly like @SeanT, an older roue. He becomes obsessed by him and gets his complete works, then sets off to find the bibulous elder but is handed a mysterious ring by a hooded man. The ring sends him back thru time where he accidentally kills a young writer, who he realises to his horror is the younger SeanT. To preserve the timeline he laboriously writes out each book and gets them published. He becomes incredibly rich and paunchy but realises he must make one last journey. So he goes back to the past again and hands the ring to his younger self...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tory hardliners still to endorse a candidate are: David Amess, Steve Baker, Bob Blackman, Crispin Blunt, Bill Cash, Chris Chope, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, IDS, Mark Francois, Marcus Fysh, James Gray, Philip Hollobone, Bernard Jenkin, Priti Patel, Owen Paterson, John Redwood.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,177
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    There was a horrid story on Yahoo the other day about a teenage girl who decided to be euthanised.
    The Times had a completely ridiculous story on that, the headline said "depressed teenager" then I looked up the story and she was gang raped at 11 and sexually assaulted at 14 by a local rape gang.
    There is a bit more to it than that, and she died of her anorexia not euthanasia. A very tragic story.


    What were her mental health issues brought on by, I wonder?
    She was sexually assaulted aged 11, then raped at 14 by two men. She wrote a book about it. Where did you get the story of the rape gang from?

    I once worked in a psychiatric unit specialising in eating disorders. They are very complex and difficult to treat. Not infrequently there is a history of sexual abuse, often incestuous, but there are many other factors too. Anorexia severe enough to require inpatient care has a high mortality rate, roughly 25% at age 30.
    That’s horrific, and clearly an area where more publicity is needed.

    In the Dutch case, where it appears that a child was allowed to starve herself to death in the presence of medical professionals, would a similar case in the U.K. not result in her being sectioned and kept alive by the doctors present?
    Quite possibly. She had been tube fed against her will on a previous admission, but was ruled competent to refuse treatment, and her parents agreed. I think UK law is fairly similar, but no longer work in that field.

    Eating disorders have a high mortality and morbidity, and some of the pro-anorexia sites on social media very harmful and dangerous.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,982
    Mr. Sandpit, aye.

    Still, pleased with the 9 on him beating Schumacher's win record (he needs about 14 more, I think).
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    OllyT said:

    No wonder people vote to leave the EU, when you hear the utter nonsense that they believe about how it controls our entire lives. Here is a classic example. Last night's loser explaining how the EU controls what time kids go to school, what is allowed on school meals menu, the curriculum, exam system and more besides.

    Problem is how do you counter this stuff with low-information voters?
    As we saw from the EU ref campaign it’s a challenge . Greene just blatantly lies , at least the interviewer holds him to account . Compare that to the now spineless BBC . Not to mention the disgraceful behaviour of Humphrys on Radio 4 , utterly biased and he should be fired . His interview this morning hit new depths .
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,896
    IanB2 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    I think you are wrong there.The conservative party is always thirsty for power and pragmatic to achieve it.It will do what is necessary to stay there.They nearly killed the Lib Dems off in and after the coalition.They will do the same to the Brexit Party.
    I agree that those who are suggesting the Tory party will somehow disappear are overstating the case. There is clearly an enduring constituency there, provided the party can come to terms with the loss of its primacy amongst business and the middle classes and embrace a more cultural dimension to its politics.

    Under PR, the ‘new’ Conservatives would be an enduring part of our political scene.

    What is facing a mortal threat is the future of the Conservatives as a potential majority government under our current system. As Richard_N spelled out in the last thread, every Brexit outcome loses them a chunk of support, and by the time they recover from its ramifications our politics may well look very different.
    __________

    David Gauke, i.e. clearly a sensible one, was interviewed on R4 and failed to make the obvious case for PR and a 'One Nation Party', i.e. all the Tory pro-EU MPs including Sandbach, Burt, Clarke, Lee, Stewart etc. However, I gather he's under threat from his local party for being slightly 'sensible' and supporting a 'deal'.

    Has his local party been infiltrated? It sounds like the mirror image of Militant/1980s but there's no apparent figure to stand up to the zealots.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

    New York has just overtaken London as the world's principal financial centre, according to a report released recently
    I thought it always was number one in that respect. Interesting that London has recently overtaken NYC in terms of population.
    The stat I find remarkable is that London has only surpassed its 1939 population in the last few years
    Slum clearance was responsible for it dropping by about 2 million.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,912
    He then gives the shield to Sam, the almanac to Biff and the keys to the Quantum Leap accelerator to Dr Beckett...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,757
    edited June 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    I think you are wrong there.The conservative party is always thirsty for power and pragmatic to achieve it.It will do what is necessary to stay there.They nearly killed the Lib Dems off in and after the coalition.They will do the same to the Brexit Party.
    I agree that those who are suggesting the Tory party will somehow disappear are overstating the case. There is clearly an enduring constituency there, provided the party can come to terms with the loss of its primacy amongst business and the middle classes and embrace a more cultural dimension to its politics.

    Under PR, the ‘new’ Conservatives would be an enduring part of our political scene.

    What is facing a mortal threat is the future of the Conservatives as a potential majority government under our current system. As Richard_N spelled out in the last thread, every Brexit outcome loses them a chunk of support, and by the time they recover from its ramifications our politics may well look very different.
    With PR a pro Remain Tory Party could continue on say 10% of the vote or so with about 60 seats, under FPTP though it would be all but wiped out and overtaken as the main party of the right by the Brexit Party much as happened to the Progessive Conservatives in Canada in 1993 when overtaken by the Reform Party, the two merging in 2003 to form the current Conservative party of Canada which won the 2006 election there under Harper.

    In Italy Forza Italia has also been overtaken by Lega Nord with the latter in Government and leading polls there and in France Fillon was beaten by Le Pen in the 2017 presidential election
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,023
    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,591
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    There was a horrid story on Yahoo the other day about a teenage girl who decided to be euthanised.
    The Times had a completely ridiculous story on that, the headline said "depressed teenager" then I looked up the story and she was gang raped at 11 and sexually assaulted at 14 by a local rape gang.
    There is a bit more to it than that, and she died of her anorexia not euthanasia. A very tragic story.


    What were her mental health issues brought on by, I wonder?
    She was sexually assaulted aged 11, then raped at 14 by two men. She wrote a book about it. Where did you get the story of the rape gang from?

    I once worked in a psychiatric unit specialising in eating disorders. They are very complex and difficult to treat. Not infrequently there is a history of sexual abuse, often incestuous, but there are many other factors too. Anorexia severe enough to require inpatient care has a high mortality rate, roughly 25% at age 30.
    That’s horrific, and clearly an area where more publicity is needed.

    In the Dutch case, where it appears that a child was allowed to starve herself to death in the presence of medical professionals, would a similar case in the U.K. not result in her being sectioned and kept alive by the doctors present?
    Quite possibly. She had been tube fed against her will on a previous admission, but was ruled competent to refuse treatment, and her parents agreed. I think UK law is fairly similar, but no longer work in that field.

    Eating disorders have a high mortality and morbidity, and some of the pro-anorexia sites on social media very harmful and dangerous.
    Interesting, thanks for the input.

    A couple of decades ago I dated a young anorexic lady, and to say it was hard work would be an understatement. At the end it becomes impossible to deal with someone who clearly had a mental illness, and when I last spoke to her she was dealing with the professionals.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    That raises a further question: why is New York City's population falling, despite a rising overall American population? London suffers many of NYC's problems - housing, crime, etc - yet London is growing alongside the UK.

    This long, nostalgic, leftwing analysis says that New York City has become boring, unremarkable, generic, a billionaire's club.

    https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/

    Alternatively, it might be because New Yorkers are no longer having sex in the park. A truly bad sign for ANY great city.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sex-in-new-york-parks-droops-as-amorous-incidents-decline-by-98-percent


    London, you have been warned. Get dogging.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,436
    edited June 2019
    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.


    Middle Office jobs (risk analysts and the like) and high end IT jobs are moving to Eastern Europe on a balance of skills and costs. The UK PRA is losing its lead role in implementing EU regulation to authorities in France and Germany and to the ECB itself. Who controls the regulation is what counts for financial services, not market access itself. New York has always between a regulatory heavyweight.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,150
    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,591

    Mr. Sandpit, aye.

    Still, pleased with the 9 on him beating Schumacher's win record (he needs about 14 more, I think).

    That’s an awesome bet, from a couple of years ago as I recall?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,085
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/07/brexit-strange-death-british-conservatism

    “The Tory party has been contaminated by a revolutionary project which bears very little resemblance to its historic traditions”
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,591
    edited June 2019
    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    That raises a further question: why is New York City's population falling, despite a rising overall American population? London suffers many of NYC's problems - housing, crime, etc - yet London is growing alongside the UK.

    This long, nostalgic, leftwing analysis says that New York City has become boring, unremarkable, generic, a billionaire's club.

    https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/

    Alternatively, it might be because New Yorkers are no longer having sex in the park. A truly bad sign for ANY great city.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sex-in-new-york-parks-droops-as-amorous-incidents-decline-by-98-percent


    London, you have been warned. Get dogging.

    Are you sure you’re not @SeanT?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,150

    IanB2 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    Very well said; it's going to fall on deaf ears though.

    We are witnessing the long, slow, painful death of the Conservative party. It's a strong argument for compassionate euthanasia.
    I think you are wrong there.The conservative party is always thirsty for power and pragmatic to achieve it.It will do what is necessary to stay there.They nearly killed the Lib Dems off in and after the coalition.They will do the same to the Brexit Party.
    I agree that those who are suggesting the Tory party will somehow disappear are overstating the case. There is clearly an enduring constituency there, provided the party can come to terms with the loss of its primacy amongst business and the middle classes and embrace a more cultural dimension to its politics.

    Under PR, the ‘new’ Conservatives would be an enduring part of our political scene.

    What is facing a mortal threat is the future of the Conservatives as a potential majority government under our current system. As Richard_N spelled out in the last thread, every Brexit outcome loses them a chunk of support, and by the time they recover from its ramifications our politics may well look very different.
    __________

    David Gauke, i.e. clearly a sensible one, was interviewed on R4 and failed to make the obvious case for PR and a 'One Nation Party', i.e. all the Tory pro-EU MPs including Sandbach, Burt, Clarke, Lee, Stewart etc. However, I gather he's under threat from his local party for being slightly 'sensible' and supporting a 'deal'.

    Has his local party been infiltrated? It sounds like the mirror image of Militant/1980s but there's no apparent figure to stand up to the zealots.
    The problem the Tories have is of trying to hang onto policies that protect the economy and labour market when the large majority of their members have retired from it on (apparently) fixed incomes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,150
    Sandpit said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    That raises a further question: why is New York City's population falling, despite a rising overall American population? London suffers many of NYC's problems - housing, crime, etc - yet London is growing alongside the UK.

    This long, nostalgic, leftwing analysis says that New York City has become boring, unremarkable, generic, a billionaire's club.

    https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/

    Alternatively, it might be because New Yorkers are no longer having sex in the park. A truly bad sign for ANY great city.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sex-in-new-york-parks-droops-as-amorous-incidents-decline-by-98-percent


    London, you have been warned. Get dogging.

    Are you sure you’re not @SeanT?
    Of course he is. It's blindingly obvious. Let's move on...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,982
    Mr. Sandpit, just last year, I think.

    The odds seemed excessively generous. As a rule, I dislike long term bets, but that one was too good to miss.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,023
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    That raises a further question: why is New York City's population falling, despite a rising overall American population? London suffers many of NYC's problems - housing, crime, etc - yet London is growing alongside the UK.

    This long, nostalgic, leftwing analysis says that New York City has become boring, unremarkable, generic, a billionaire's club.

    https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/

    Alternatively, it might be because New Yorkers are no longer having sex in the park. A truly bad sign for ANY great city.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sex-in-new-york-parks-droops-as-amorous-incidents-decline-by-98-percent


    London, you have been warned. Get dogging.

    Are you sure you’re not @SeanT?
    Of course he is. It's blindingly obvious. Let's move on...
    You might find this funny. I did at first, but, increasingly, I find it less funny.

    Ask the mods. I ain't him. They know the email addy, IP, everything.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 35,297
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    That raises a further question: why is New York City's population falling, despite a rising overall American population? London suffers many of NYC's problems - housing, crime, etc - yet London is growing alongside the UK.

    This long, nostalgic, leftwing analysis says that New York City has become boring, unremarkable, generic, a billionaire's club.

    https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/

    Alternatively, it might be because New Yorkers are no longer having sex in the park. A truly bad sign for ANY great city.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sex-in-new-york-parks-droops-as-amorous-incidents-decline-by-98-percent


    London, you have been warned. Get dogging.

    Are you sure you’re not @SeanT?
    Of course he is. It's blindingly obvious. Let's move on...
    rcs1000 told us the other week that he is most obviously not, using IP addresses, etc.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,150

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    That raises a further question: why is New York City's population falling, despite a rising overall American population? London suffers many of NYC's problems - housing, crime, etc - yet London is growing alongside the UK.

    This long, nostalgic, leftwing analysis says that New York City has become boring, unremarkable, generic, a billionaire's club.

    https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/

    Alternatively, it might be because New Yorkers are no longer having sex in the park. A truly bad sign for ANY great city.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sex-in-new-york-parks-droops-as-amorous-incidents-decline-by-98-percent


    London, you have been warned. Get dogging.

    Are you sure you’re not @SeanT?
    Of course he is. It's blindingly obvious. Let's move on...
    rcs1000 told us the other week that he is most obviously not, using IP addresses, etc.
    Well I am with BT Broadband, and if I turn my router off and on, my IP address changes.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,045
    Byronic said:

    Somewhat offtopic, I have to schlep from Richmond to Paddington to see an ancient friend. I haven't loitered in Paddington in centuries. Is it still horrible? Can any Londoners on this site recommend a decent drinking place around there?

    When I used to work around those parts we used to use the Victoria and the Duke of Kendal.

    Victoriapaddington.co.uk

    Dukeofkendal.co.uk
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 35,297
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    That raises a further question: why is New York City's population falling, despite a rising overall American population? London suffers many of NYC's problems - housing, crime, etc - yet London is growing alongside the UK.

    This long, nostalgic, leftwing analysis says that New York City has become boring, unremarkable, generic, a billionaire's club.

    https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/

    Alternatively, it might be because New Yorkers are no longer having sex in the park. A truly bad sign for ANY great city.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sex-in-new-york-parks-droops-as-amorous-incidents-decline-by-98-percent


    London, you have been warned. Get dogging.

    Are you sure you’re not @SeanT?
    Of course he is. It's blindingly obvious. Let's move on...
    rcs1000 told us the other week that he is most obviously not, using IP addresses, etc.
    Well I am with BT Broadband, and if I turn my router off and on, my IP address changes.
    Why don't you raise it with rcs1000? After all, he effectively runs the site alongside Mike.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,429
    FF43 said:


    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.


    Middle Office jobs (risk analysts and the like) and high end IT jobs are moving to Eastern Europe on a balance of skills and costs. The UK PRA is losing its lead role in implementing EU regulation to authorities in France and Germany and to the ECB itself. Who controls the regulation is what counts for financial services, not market access itself. New York has always between a regulatory heavyweight.
    Genuinely, you know fuck all about fuck all. You chat so much shit, but make it sound clever but in reality it's just shit rolled in glitter.

    I'm literally scouting a potential holding company site for us in Vilnius which will have about 100 people while the rest of our European operation has been consolidated to our new Liverpool Street HQ. We've brought jobs from Europe to London.

    Ultimately, the market is proving us right and you wrong. Investors loathe the EU, us leaving will cause investors to leave the EU.
This discussion has been closed.