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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Peterborough Chronicle. About that by-election

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,020
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    felix said:



    A party which is by no means perfect but not in anything like the same level of denial.

    Why do you think the Tories have such a terrible vote return from BAME?

    And no it isn't because the minorities are evil....
    It's a fair point. Fewer and fewer ethnic minority voters are happy to choose Conservative, while they are happy, presumably with the exception of Jews, to vote Labour. It probably isn't overt racism, although it doesn't the help Tory inclusiveness image when the PM apparent calls blacks "picaninnies" and says they have lower IQs. It's a more a sense of feeling unwanted, I suspect.
    The converse of this is that there may come a time when white Britons start "voting white", rather than for any other reason, as society polarises. That would be terrible for Labour, in the long term, as they are perceived as the BAME party.

    You might think it couldn't happen here, but many experts scoffed and said it couldn't happen in America. Until it did. And Trump was elected.
    Zac Goldsmith tried that trick with the London mayoral election. Fortunately it backfired.

    The more interesting point to me is the apparent paradox of the Conservative party (genuinely I believe) not being institutionally racist but at the same time repellant to ethnic minorities. I think it boils down to "You're not one of us. We're not interested in you." Is that racist?
    It was never going to work in London, was it? Duhh. Just like Trump didn't do so well in New York City.

    Can this process work in provincial Britain? Certainly. We are not that different from America.

    Of course I hope it doesn't ever come to this. Entire nations voting on ethnic lines (whites as well as others) is a recipe for, well, a Donald Trump type leader. However the insane pursuit of ultra identity politics will produce this outcome, if the trend extrapolates. In my opinion.
    Sounds like Sean to me.
    No offence, but i suggest this is beginning to get very boring. For everyone. Including me.
    Seconded.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,697
    edited June 2019

    So as this comes from the joint acting chairmen does that mean Brady is standing?

    If he wasn't a candidate surely the notice would be from him?
    So May is now Acting Leader. Betfair to pay up today for her ceasing to be leader then?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    A number of German pollsters are now putting the Greens in first place.

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 6,827

    Well Betfair are in for a world of pain now.
    Why? The letter from the 1922 confirms that she remains Acting Leader of the Party until her successor is elected. If they count Acting Leader as Leader which seems appropriate then June is a losing bet.
    Betfair and other bookies have said they would not pay out on interim leaders succeeding Mrs May as winners.

    They've created a precedent for which I'm grateful.
    What we need is an internationally accepted definition, with examples, so that everyone understands what counts, and what doesn't.
    Surely that belongs on the anti semitism racism thread
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    So as this comes from the joint acting chairmen does that mean Brady is standing?

    If he wasn't a candidate surely the notice would be from him?
    So May is now Acting Leader. Betfair to pay up today for her ceasing to be leader then?
    Well it does say "remain acting leader", not "become"
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,700

    Byronic said:

    <

    Yes, absolutely. In fact I'd say Brexit was possibly the first menacing sign of this phenomenon taking hold in Britain.

    No, it's been around far longer than that. In fact before Brexit I would have said it was declining - when I started out in politics in the 1970s it was a given that Irish Catholics, BME (as we didn't call them then) and the working class voted Labour whilst teachers, doctors, professionals and C of E voted Tory. Strange though it seems now, the Tories were a powerful voice in student politics, students generally being from professional middle and upper class Tory backgrounds.
    When I were a lad the Young Conservatives were a significant youth movement, allegedly because the prettiest girls went there.
    Oh I thought that was the young farmers. Though I was a city boy so never had the chance to find out sadly.
    One of my female cousins was a member of both!

    Personally I wasn't eligible for Young Farmers and the idea of joining any sort of Conservative grouping was anathema.

    However, I was very happy in the Students Union.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,727
    edited June 2019
    I think this might be the key to the conundrum, from the Electoral Commission:

    When registering, parties need to provide us with some information about their party structure, including a financial scheme, their constitution and details of any branches of the party that manage their own finances (“accounting units”). They must also appoint people to the official roles of:

    - Party leader
    - Treasurer
    - Nominating officer

    Registered parties must keep details of these roles up to date and inform us of any changes.


    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/political-party-registration
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,076
    edited June 2019
    The Flavible politics seat projection for Peterborough based on the latest YouGov poll putting the Brexit Party in the lead yields this:

    Brexit Party: 27%
    Labour: 26%
    Conservative: 20%
    Lib Dem: 16%

    (Source: https://www.flavible.com/politics/map/polls.php?sid=2060)

    It looks like the 'two horse race' squeeze could have cost the Brexit Party the victory.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    I think this might be the key to the conundrum, from the Electoral Commission:

    When registering, parties need to provide us with some information about their party structure, including a financial scheme, their constitution and details of any branches of the party that manage their own finances (“accounting units”). They must also appoint people to the official roles of:

    - Party leader
    - Treasurer
    - Nominating officer

    Registered parties must keep details of these roles up to date and inform us of any changes.


    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/political-party-registration

    Sian Berry is down as the leader of the Greens. I wonder whether she takes turns with the chap she shares the leadership with or if they tossed a coin to decide who would go on the form for the Electoral Commission.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,076

    So as this comes from the joint acting chairmen does that mean Brady is standing?

    If he wasn't a candidate surely the notice would be from him?
    So May is now Acting Leader. Betfair to pay up today for her ceasing to be leader then?
    If you phone CCHQ and ask who is the official leader of the party, the answer would surely be Theresa May.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,001
    tlg86 said:
    You can almost feel the misery of the Brexigraph. How they looked forward to having, on their front page, that big picture of Nigel laughing like a hippo.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,828

    So as this comes from the joint acting chairmen does that mean Brady is standing?

    If he wasn't a candidate surely the notice would be from him?
    So May is now Acting Leader. Betfair to pay up today for her ceasing to be leader then?
    Why would they? Acting Leader is still Leader.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,434

    So as this comes from the joint acting chairmen does that mean Brady is standing?

    If he wasn't a candidate surely the notice would be from him?
    So May is now Acting Leader. Betfair to pay up today for her ceasing to be leader then?
    If you phone CCHQ and ask who is the official leader of the party, the answer would surely be Theresa May.
    I gave them a call the other day. Muttered something about "caretaker" then hung up on me :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,584
    To quote the Betfair terms:

    When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

    Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.

    In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

    Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,133

    So as this comes from the joint acting chairmen does that mean Brady is standing?

    If he wasn't a candidate surely the notice would be from him?
    So May is now Acting Leader. Betfair to pay up today for her ceasing to be leader then?
    Why would they? Acting Leader is still Leader.
    But she cant be appointed Acting Leader until she has resigned as Leader, and there is nothing in the market rules that say the bet is void if she is reappointed the second after she resigns.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,828

    Well Betfair are in for a world of pain now.
    Why? The letter from the 1922 confirms that she remains Acting Leader of the Party until her successor is elected. If they count Acting Leader as Leader which seems appropriate then June is a losing bet.
    Betfair and other bookies have said they would not pay out on interim leaders succeeding Mrs May as winners.

    They've created a precedent for which I'm grateful.
    May is not an interim leader though. She is leader. Acting leader for now but that is a post she "remains" in not is taking up.

    Considering the Electoral Commission has an "official" leader on file for parties I suspect that we will see there is no change to that today. May remains leader.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited June 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    felix said:



    A party which is by no means perfect but not in anything like the same level of denial.

    Why do you think the Tories have such a terrible vote return from BAME?

    And no it isn't because the minorities are evil....
    It's a fair point. Fewer and fewer ethnic minority voters are happy to choose Conservative, while they are happy, presumably with the exception of Jews, to vote Labour. It probably isn't overt racism, although it doesn't the help Tory inclusiveness image when the PM apparent calls blacks "picaninnies" and says they have lower IQs. It's a more a sense of feeling unwanted, I suspect.
    The converse of this is that there may come a time when white Britons start "voting white", rather than for any other reason, as society polarises. That would be terrible for Labour, in the long term, as they are perceived as the BAME party.

    You might think it couldn't happen here, but many experts scoffed and said it couldn't happen in America. Until it did. And Trump was elected.
    One of the hashtags used by theTrump campaign was something like #IdentityPoliticsForWhitePeople
    It was always only a matter of time before the majority get fed up of politicians pandering exclusively to minorities for votes.
    Yes, exactly. And I cannot see any reason why Britain should be immune to this particular American trend, when we adopt all the others, right down to things like Black Friday (which is especially ludicrous, as we don't have a Thanksgiving: which "causes" Black Friday)

    So expect this to kick off in Britain, on a serious scale, in about 5-10 years.

    Here's a good article which touches on this (from an American POV):

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/04/steve-sailer-invented-identity-politics-for-the-alt-right.html?gtm=top
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,434
    edited June 2019

    So as this comes from the joint acting chairmen does that mean Brady is standing?

    If he wasn't a candidate surely the notice would be from him?
    So May is now Acting Leader. Betfair to pay up today for her ceasing to be leader then?
    Why would they? Acting Leader is still Leader.
    Who do I go to to collect on my Gus Hiddink next Chelsea Manager bet back from 2015 ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,828
    IanB2 said:

    So as this comes from the joint acting chairmen does that mean Brady is standing?

    If he wasn't a candidate surely the notice would be from him?
    So May is now Acting Leader. Betfair to pay up today for her ceasing to be leader then?
    Why would they? Acting Leader is still Leader.
    But she cant be appointed Acting Leader until she has resigned as Leader, and there is nothing in the market rules that say the bet is void if she is reappointed the second after she resigns.
    Who says she can't be appointed that? The 1922 letter does not say she has been appointed Acting Leader it says she remains that. I.e. no break.

    Who is officially leader is a also a matter of record with the Electoral Commission. If May remains official leader with them until her successor is elected then that keeps the matter simple and clear.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,076
    Byronic said:

    Yes, exactly. And I cannot see any reason why Britain should be immune to this particular American trend, when we adopt all the others, right down to things like Black Friday...

    No we don't. When did gun control, abortion or religion become key issues in British politics?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    Pulpstar said:

    So as this comes from the joint acting chairmen does that mean Brady is standing?

    If he wasn't a candidate surely the notice would be from him?
    So May is now Acting Leader. Betfair to pay up today for her ceasing to be leader then?
    If you phone CCHQ and ask who is the official leader of the party, the answer would surely be Theresa May.
    I gave them a call the other day. Muttered something about "caretaker" then hung up on me :D
    Theresa May as Hong Kong Phooey? There have been stranger twists this year.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,133
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    felix said:



    A party which is by no means perfect but not in anything like the same level of denial.

    Why do you think the Tories have such a terrible vote return from BAME?

    And no it isn't because the minorities are evil....
    It's a fair point. Fewer and fewer ethnic minority voters are happy to choose Conservative, while they are happy, presumably with the exception of Jews, to vote Labour. It probably isn't overt racism, although it doesn't the help Tory inclusiveness image when the PM apparent calls blacks "picaninnies" and says they have lower IQs. It's a more a sense of feeling unwanted, I suspect.
    The converse of this is that there may come a time when white Britons start "voting white", rather than for any other reason, as society polarises. That would be terrible for Labour, in the long term, as they are perceived as the BAME party.

    You might think it couldn't happen here, but many experts scoffed and said it couldn't happen in America. Until it did. And Trump was elected.
    Zac Goldsmith tried that trick with the London mayoral election. Fortunately it backfired.

    The more interesting point to me is the apparent paradox of the Conservative party (genuinely I believe) not being institutionally racist but at the same time repellant to ethnic minorities. I think it boils down to "You're not one of us. We're not interested in you." Is that racist?
    It was never going to work in London, was it? Duhh. Just like Trump didn't do so well in New York City.

    Can this process work in provincial Britain? Certainly. We are not that different from America.

    Of course I hope it doesn't ever come to this. Entire nations voting on ethnic lines (whites as well as others) is a recipe for, well, a Donald Trump type leader. However the insane pursuit of ultra identity politics will produce this outcome, if the trend extrapolates. In my opinion.
    Sounds like Sean to me.
    No offence, but i suggest this is beginning to get very boring. For everyone. Including me.
    The two. Word sentences. Are a clue.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 8,099
    edited June 2019
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    felix said:



    A party which is by no means perfect but not in anything like the same level of denial.

    Why do you think the Tories have such a terrible vote return from BAME?

    And no it isn't because the minorities are evil....
    It's a fair point. Fewer and fewer ethnic minority voters are happy to choose Conservative, while they are happy, presumably with the exception of Jews, to vote Labour. It probably isn't overt racism, although it doesn't the help Tory inclusiveness image when the PM apparent calls blacks "picaninnies" and says they have lower IQs. It's a more a sense of feeling unwanted, I suspect.
    The converse of this is that there may come a time when white Britons start "voting white", rather than for any other reason, as society polarises. That would be terrible for Labour, in the long term, as they are perceived as the BAME party.

    You might think it couldn't happen here, but many experts scoffed and said it couldn't happen in America. Until it did. And Trump was elected.
    Zac Goldsmith tried that trick with the London mayoral election. Fortunately it backfired.

    The more interesting point to me is the apparent paradox of the Conservative party (genuinely I believe) not being institutionally racist but at the same time repellant to ethnic minorities. I think it boils down to "You're not one of us. We're not interested in you." Is that racist?
    It was never going to work in London, was it? Duhh. Just like Trump didn't do so well in New York City.

    Can this process work in provincial Britain? Certainly. We are not that different from America.

    Of course I hope it doesn't ever come to this. Entire nations voting on ethnic lines (whites as well as others) is a recipe for, well, a Donald Trump type leader. However the insane pursuit of ultra identity politics will produce this outcome, if the trend extrapolates. In my opinion.
    Sounds like Sean to me.
    No offence, but i suggest this is beginning to get very boring. For everyone. Including me.
    You have my sympathy. I am regularly mistaken for Jack W, despite the huge age difference.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,828
    Sandpit said:

    To quote the Betfair terms:

    When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

    Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.

    In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

    Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

    Using the Electoral Commission register seems a reasonable way to settle it. If the Tories today vacate the Leader post with the Electoral Commission then it is today. If May remains official leader then she is still official leader.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,146

    Pulpstar said:

    So as this comes from the joint acting chairmen does that mean Brady is standing?

    If he wasn't a candidate surely the notice would be from him?
    So May is now Acting Leader. Betfair to pay up today for her ceasing to be leader then?
    If you phone CCHQ and ask who is the official leader of the party, the answer would surely be Theresa May.
    I gave them a call the other day. Muttered something about "caretaker" then hung up on me :D
    Theresa May as Hong Kong Phooey?
    Could be.....
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Peterborough by-election result:

    I don’t want to gloat as I don’t support Labour but as I predicted the Labour machine won the seat in Peterborough. In addition to this if the Brexit party cannot win a seat that attracted 60% Leave support in a by-election where they can focus their activity then in a general election I doubt the Brexit party would do anything other than attracting a certain level of support across the country but with very little to show for it. It does not get any better for the Brexit party than the circumstances the election was called, the national scene and the European election result. The Brexit media were fully committed to getting the Brexit party home in Peterborough and they failed. I did warn that turnout could scupper the Brexit party but was dismissed by the usual characters believing everything in the media and fickle opinion polling. I don't read much into the result but given the Brexit party only attracted 30% in a Leave seat it does make you wonder why the Brexit supporting media and some Tory politicians seem intent on a No Deal Brexit that does not attract more than a third of the vote....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,697
    Going back to our earlier debate on HS2 a few days ago. This is a brilliant summary of why it needs to be built, explaining why the new lines will free up existing lines (e.g. West Coast) to focus exclusively on local, stopping commuter type services. Plus the North Powerhouse Rail plan relies on a great deal of HS2 infrastructure.

    This is the argument politicians should have been making for years instead of all the focus on speed.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hs2-logistics-financial-benefit-controversy-a8937936.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,434

    Pulpstar said:

    So as this comes from the joint acting chairmen does that mean Brady is standing?

    If he wasn't a candidate surely the notice would be from him?
    So May is now Acting Leader. Betfair to pay up today for her ceasing to be leader then?
    If you phone CCHQ and ask who is the official leader of the party, the answer would surely be Theresa May.
    I gave them a call the other day. Muttered something about "caretaker" then hung up on me :D
    Theresa May as Hong Kong Phooey? There have been stranger twists this year.
    The chap I spoke to sounded like he'd got the same call a few times that day... quick with the answer and quick with the hang up ;)
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I notice the Daily Mail has removed the picture of Nigel Farage and the defeated candidate drinking on the day of the By-election instead of focusing their attention on GOTV.

    I wonder if Tory MPs will wake up to the fact the Brexit supporting media have failed in trying to influence the Brexit debate on No Deal terms.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,055

    The Flavible politics seat projection for Peterborough based on the latest YouGov poll putting the Brexit Party in the lead yields this:

    Brexit Party: 27%
    Labour: 26%
    Conservative: 20%
    Lib Dem: 16%

    (Source: https://www.flavible.com/politics/map/polls.php?sid=2060)

    It looks like the 'two horse race' squeeze could have cost the Brexit Party the victory.

    Yes their leaflet was almost laughably erroneous. Basically indicated to all Remainers, and those who didn't trust Farage, exactly who to vote for.
    Schoolboy error. Should have been patently obvious...was noted on here instantly.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,509

    Peterborough by-election result:

    I don’t want to gloat as I don’t support Labour but as I predicted the Labour machine won the seat in Peterborough. In addition to this if the Brexit party cannot win a seat that attracted 60% Leave support in a by-election where they can focus their activity then in a general election I doubt the Brexit party would do anything other than attracting a certain level of support across the country but with very little to show for it. It does not get any better for the Brexit party than the circumstances the election was called, the national scene and the European election result. The Brexit media were fully committed to getting the Brexit party home in Peterborough and they failed. I did warn that turnout could scupper the Brexit party but was dismissed by the usual characters believing everything in the media and fickle opinion polling. I don't read much into the result but given the Brexit party only attracted 30% in a Leave seat it does make you wonder why the Brexit supporting media and some Tory politicians seem intent on a No Deal Brexit that does not attract more than a third of the vote....

    It attracts maybe a third of the vote now (that's when the turnout is in the 30s or 40s).

    But I think most of that support would evaporate if it actually happened.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 8,099
    edited June 2019

    Peterborough by-election result:

    I don’t want to gloat as I don’t support Labour but as I predicted the Labour machine won the seat in Peterborough. In addition to this if the Brexit party cannot win a seat that attracted 60% Leave support in a by-election where they can focus their activity then in a general election I doubt the Brexit party would do anything other than attracting a certain level of support across the country but with very little to show for it. It does not get any better for the Brexit party than the circumstances the election was called, the national scene and the European election result. The Brexit media were fully committed to getting the Brexit party home in Peterborough and they failed. I did warn that turnout could scupper the Brexit party but was dismissed by the usual characters believing everything in the media and fickle opinion polling. I don't read much into the result but given the Brexit party only attracted 30% in a Leave seat it does make you wonder why the Brexit supporting media and some Tory politicians seem intent on a No Deal Brexit that does not attract more than a third of the vote....

    There were signs before Peterborough that TBE had maxed out. Conditions could not possibly have been more favorable for them than they were at the Euros. That is likely to prove a high-water mark for them.

    That they got so far as a Party with one Policy and only one effective spokesman is truly remarkable, but the direction of travel from here looks obvious.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,033

    Byronic said:

    Yes, exactly. And I cannot see any reason why Britain should be immune to this particular American trend, when we adopt all the others, right down to things like Black Friday...

    No we don't. When did gun control, abortion or religion become key issues in British politics?
    Sammy Wilson and Ian Paisley Jr say "Hi!"
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Yes, exactly. And I cannot see any reason why Britain should be immune to this particular American trend, when we adopt all the others, right down to things like Black Friday...

    No we don't. When did gun control, abortion or religion become key issues in British politics?
    Abortion and gun control are specifically American issues for very special historic reasons, which you clearly understand.

    The idea religion hasn't entered the British political debate is laughable. Have you heard of certain primary schools in Birmingham?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,076

    Byronic said:

    Yes, exactly. And I cannot see any reason why Britain should be immune to this particular American trend, when we adopt all the others, right down to things like Black Friday...

    No we don't. When did gun control, abortion or religion become key issues in British politics?
    Sammy Wilson and Ian Paisley Jr say "Hi!"
    They're Irish. ;)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,142

    So is HMS Mordaunt now going to enter the race? Or is she in dry dock for the duration?

    I think she is Astute enough to go submarine this time, then emerge in the race after this one.

    Sane, ambitious Tories should keep their powder dry. Brexit is the destroyer of reputations and careers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,417
    edited June 2019
    Lithuania is much, much warmer than I thought it would be and the local red wine is very drinkable.

    Lithuania's gain is could well be Frankfurt's loss. I think here or Estonia will be the front runners, and now there's a daily flight from LCY it's definitely in the running.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,509

    Sandpit said:

    To quote the Betfair terms:

    When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

    Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.

    In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

    Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

    Using the Electoral Commission register seems a reasonable way to settle it. If the Tories today vacate the Leader post with the Electoral Commission then it is today. If May remains official leader then she is still official leader.
    Surely if she were still official leader the party would not have stated that she would be _acting_ leader. There would be no need.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    felix said:



    A party which is by no means perfect but not in anything like the same level of denial.

    Why do you think the Tories have such a terrible vote return from BAME?

    And no it isn't because the minorities are evil....
    It's a fair point. Fewer and fewer ethnic minority voters are happy to choose Conservative, while they are happy, presumably with the exception of Jews, to vote Labour. It probably isn't overt racism, although it doesn't the help Tory inclusiveness image when the PM apparent calls blacks "picaninnies" and says they have lower IQs. It's a more a sense of feeling unwanted, I suspect.
    The converse of this is that there may come a time when white Britons start "voting white", rather than for any other reason, as society polarises. That would be terrible for Labour, in the long term, as they are perceived as the BAME party.

    You might think it couldn't happen here, but many experts scoffed and said it couldn't happen in America. Until it did. And Trump was elected.
    Zac Goldsmith tried that trick with the London mayoral election. Fortunately it backfired.

    The more interesting point to me is the apparent paradox of the Conservative party (genuinely I believe) not being institutionally racist but at the same time repellant to ethnic minorities. I think it boils down to "You're not one of us. We're not interested in you." Is that racist?
    It was never going to work in London, was it? Duhh. Just like Trump didn't do so well in New York City.

    Can this process work in provincial Britain? Certainly. We are not that different from America.

    Of course I hope it doesn't ever come to this. Entire nations voting on ethnic lines (whites as well as others) is a recipe for, well, a Donald Trump type leader. However the insane pursuit of ultra identity politics will produce this outcome, if the trend extrapolates. In my opinion.
    Sounds like Sean to me.
    No offence, but i suggest this is beginning to get very boring. For everyone. Including me.
    The two. Word sentences. Are a clue.
    I refer the Honourable Member for Blithering Away on PB Despite The Warning, to the previous warning by TheScreamingEagles

    This is irritating for me (as I am not him, whatever you believe) and utterly tedious for everyone else.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,076
    Byronic said:

    The idea religion hasn't entered the British political debate is laughable. Have you heard of certain primary schools in Birmingham?

    That's very different to the way that US politicians are expected to be pious.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,912

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:
    If she’s formally resigned, then will Betfair be paying out on her leaving office in June?
    She is still leader according to the 1922, so you would think not.
    According to the 1923 she is not still Leader. In fact they confirm she has left the post of Leader. She now holds the post of Acting Leader, which is not the same post, although I should imagine it has many similarities.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Good. That was the most ghastly story. Shameful, abhorrent, ugh.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,055

    I notice the Daily Mail has removed the picture of Nigel Farage and the defeated candidate drinking on the day of the By-election instead of focusing their attention on GOTV.

    I wonder if Tory MPs will wake up to the fact the Brexit supporting media have failed in trying to influence the Brexit debate on No Deal terms.

    The Mail has admirable chutzpah. Was reading an article today gravely warning its readers of the iniquities of FPTP, leading to a Labour government!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,417
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,033
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    felix said:



    A party which is by no means perfect but not in anything like the same level of denial.

    Why do you think the Tories have such a terrible vote return from BAME?

    And no it isn't because the minorities are evil....
    It's a fair point. Fewer and fewer ethnic minority voters are happy to choose Conservative, while they are happy, presumably with the exception of Jews, to vote Labour. It probably isn't overt racism, although it doesn't the help Tory inclusiveness image when the PM apparent calls blacks "picaninnies" and says they have lower IQs. It's a more a sense of feeling unwanted, I suspect.
    The converse of this is that there may come a time when white Britons start "voting white", rather than for any other reason, as society polarises. That would be terrible for Labour, in the long term, as they are perceived as the BAME party.

    You might think it couldn't happen here, but many experts scoffed and said it couldn't happen in America. Until it did. And Trump was elected.
    Zac Goldsmith tried that trick with the London mayoral election. Fortunately it backfired.

    The more interesting point to me is the apparent paradox of the Conservative party (genuinely I believe) not being institutionally racist but at the same time repellant to ethnic minorities. I think it boils down to "You're not one of us. We're not interested in you." Is that racist?
    It was never going to work in London, was it? Duhh. Just like Trump didn't do so well in New York City.

    Can this process work in provincial Britain? Certainly. We are not that different from America.

    Of course I hope it doesn't ever come to this. Entire nations voting on ethnic lines (whites as well as others) is a recipe for, well, a Donald Trump type leader. However the insane pursuit of ultra identity politics will produce this outcome, if the trend extrapolates. In my opinion.
    Sounds like Sean to me.
    No offence, but i suggest this is beginning to get very boring. For everyone. Including me.
    The two. Word sentences. Are a clue.
    I refer the Honourable Member for Blithering Away on PB Despite The Warning, to the previous warning by TheScreamingEagles

    This is irritating for me (as I am not him, whatever you believe) and utterly tedious for everyone else.
    So you are actually tim then?

    (Sorry!)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,912

    So as this comes from the joint acting chairmen does that mean Brady is standing?

    If he wasn't a candidate surely the notice would be from him?
    So May is now Acting Leader. Betfair to pay up today for her ceasing to be leader then?
    Why would they? Acting Leader is still Leader.
    No it isn't. The role is similar, the responsibilities are similar, but they are not the same role.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,584
    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:
    If she’s formally resigned, then will Betfair be paying out on her leaving office in June?
    She is still leader according to the 1922, so you would think not.
    According to the 1923 she is not still Leader. In fact they confirm she has left the post of Leader. She now holds the post of Acting Leader, which is not the same post, although I should imagine it has many similarities.
    Absolutely, she no longer holds the post of leader, she now holds a different post. And Betfair owe me £750 as a result.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Peterborough by-election result:

    I don’t want to gloat as I don’t support Labour but as I predicted the Labour machine won the seat in Peterborough. In addition to this if the Brexit party cannot win a seat that attracted 60% Leave support in a by-election where they can focus their activity then in a general election I doubt the Brexit party would do anything other than attracting a certain level of support across the country but with very little to show for it. It does not get any better for the Brexit party than the circumstances the election was called, the national scene and the European election result. The Brexit media were fully committed to getting the Brexit party home in Peterborough and they failed. I did warn that turnout could scupper the Brexit party but was dismissed by the usual characters believing everything in the media and fickle opinion polling. I don't read much into the result but given the Brexit party only attracted 30% in a Leave seat it does make you wonder why the Brexit supporting media and some Tory politicians seem intent on a No Deal Brexit that does not attract more than a third of the vote....

    There were signs before Peterborough that TBE had maxed out. Conditions could not possibly have been more favorable for them than they were at the Euros. That is likely to prove a high-water mark for them.

    That they got so far as a Party with one Policy and only one effective spokesman is truly remarkable, but the direction of travel from here looks obvious.
    Well that depends entirely on what happens between now and Halloween. It looks at the moment that the polarisation is probably about one-sixth to either extreme, but in six months time politics may have polarised further in response to events and the decisions made, and rhetoric employed, by politicians.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Peterborough by-election result:

    I don’t want to gloat as I don’t support Labour but as I predicted the Labour machine won the seat in Peterborough. In addition to this if the Brexit party cannot win a seat that attracted 60% Leave support in a by-election where they can focus their activity then in a general election I doubt the Brexit party would do anything other than attracting a certain level of support across the country but with very little to show for it. It does not get any better for the Brexit party than the circumstances the election was called, the national scene and the European election result. The Brexit media were fully committed to getting the Brexit party home in Peterborough and they failed. I did warn that turnout could scupper the Brexit party but was dismissed by the usual characters believing everything in the media and fickle opinion polling. I don't read much into the result but given the Brexit party only attracted 30% in a Leave seat it does make you wonder why the Brexit supporting media and some Tory politicians seem intent on a No Deal Brexit that does not attract more than a third of the vote....

    There were signs before Peterborough that TBE had maxed out. Conditions could not possibly have been more favorable for them than they were at the Euros. That is likely to prove a high-water mark for them.

    That they got so far as a Party with one Policy and only one effective spokesman is truly remarkable, but the direction of travel from here looks obvious.
    I remember posting a comment before the writ was turned that if the previous Tory MP defeated in 2017 could not win in Peterborough then I doubted a new Brexit party without the advantage of incumbency and an electoral machine would not do it.

    I suppose it all depends now on what the Brexit supporting media do (Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph, The Sun and the Daily Express). Will they craftily abandon Farage to the margins, some titles might but I think the likes of the Daily Express which is less influential will continue with their support for all things Brexit. The big question is what will the Daily Mail do and possibly the Sun. If the Daily Mail abandons Brexit then public opinion shaped by the title will see a change.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,045
    For me it's clear re the exit date betting - Mrs May is the leader until the new one is chosen.

    The word 'acting' can be ignored.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,912

    Byronic said:

    Yes, exactly. And I cannot see any reason why Britain should be immune to this particular American trend, when we adopt all the others, right down to things like Black Friday...

    No we don't. When did gun control, abortion or religion become key issues in British politics?
    Sammy Wilson and Ian Paisley Jr say "Hi!"
    They're Irish. ;)
    Er... :(
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334

    I notice the Daily Mail has removed the picture of Nigel Farage and the defeated candidate drinking on the day of the By-election instead of focusing their attention on GOTV.

    I wonder if Tory MPs will wake up to the fact the Brexit supporting media have failed in trying to influence the Brexit debate on No Deal terms.

    The influence of print media is declining rapidly - I wonder how many people under 50 actually read a paper newspaper? I think we should be told.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,912
    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:
    If she’s formally resigned, then will Betfair be paying out on her leaving office in June?
    She is still leader according to the 1922, so you would think not.
    According to the 1923 she is not still Leader. In fact they confirm she has left the post of Leader. She now holds the post of Acting Leader, which is not the same post, although I should imagine it has many similarities.
    Absolutely, she no longer holds the post of leader, she now holds a different post. And Betfair owe me £750 as a result.
    Indeed. Good luck.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,417

    Peterborough by-election result:

    I don’t want to gloat as I don’t support Labour but as I predicted the Labour machine won the seat in Peterborough. In addition to this if the Brexit party cannot win a seat that attracted 60% Leave support in a by-election where they can focus their activity then in a general election I doubt the Brexit party would do anything other than attracting a certain level of support across the country but with very little to show for it. It does not get any better for the Brexit party than the circumstances the election was called, the national scene and the European election result. The Brexit media were fully committed to getting the Brexit party home in Peterborough and they failed. I did warn that turnout could scupper the Brexit party but was dismissed by the usual characters believing everything in the media and fickle opinion polling. I don't read much into the result but given the Brexit party only attracted 30% in a Leave seat it does make you wonder why the Brexit supporting media and some Tory politicians seem intent on a No Deal Brexit that does not attract more than a third of the vote....

    There were signs before Peterborough that TBE had maxed out. Conditions could not possibly have been more favorable for them than they were at the Euros. That is likely to prove a high-water mark for them.

    That they got so far as a Party with one Policy and only one effective spokesman is truly remarkable, but the direction of travel from here looks obvious.
    I think you're right, however, the only situation where the upper limit goes up drastically is in the revoke/secondref scenario, especially if it is aided and abetted by a "Conservative" leader. I think all of the serious Tory candidates flatly refusing to countenance the idea of revoking or a second referendum has probably helped us stay anywhere near respectable and within a reasonable swing away from winning.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,912
    kinabalu said:

    For me it's clear re the exit date betting - Mrs May is the leader until the new one is chosen.

    The word 'acting' can be ignored.

    I'd like to see you try that with the Ten Commandments. It isn't "Thou Shalt Kill".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,702
    MaxPB said:

    Lithuania is much, much warmer than I thought it would be and the local red wine is very drinkable.

    Lithuania's gain is could well be Frankfurt's loss. I think here or Estonia will be the front runners, and now there's a daily flight from LCY it's definitely in the running.

    We used to have quite substantial Estonian and Lithuanian operations. The real issues there are:

    1. They're small places, and the labor market is quite thin. Need 10 developers, no problem. Need 100, and it's difficult.
    2. They're not that cheap any more. Estonia in particular has quite high social costs, and high commercial rents.
    3. The timezone is pretty inconvenient for working with the US.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    Byronic said:


    I refer the Honourable Member for Blithering Away on PB Despite The Warning, to the previous warning by TheScreamingEagles

    This is irritating for me (as I am not him, whatever you believe) and utterly tedious for everyone else.

    I genuinely believe you, but you do sound uncannily like him (which is a great compliment). Had you thought of cooking up an idea for a thriller and whacking a draft first chapter off to HarperCollins or somewhere?

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,828
    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    To quote the Betfair terms:

    When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

    Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.

    In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

    Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

    Using the Electoral Commission register seems a reasonable way to settle it. If the Tories today vacate the Leader post with the Electoral Commission then it is today. If May remains official leader then she is still official leader.
    Surely if she were still official leader the party would not have stated that she would be _acting_ leader. There would be no need.
    Except there's been much speculation that May is not leader after today, so the comment from the 1922 that she remains Acting Leader could be confirmation that contrary to speculation she does indeed remain officially the Leader.

    As the Electoral Commission records probably will indicate. I'm sorry but for all those people speculating June is the winner I've not seen anyone address the fact that official Leader is a post parties record with the Electoral Commission.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,417
    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037
    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:
    If she’s formally resigned, then will Betfair be paying out on her leaving office in June?
    She is still leader according to the 1922, so you would think not.
    According to the 1923 she is not still Leader. In fact they confirm she has left the post of Leader. She now holds the post of Acting Leader, which is not the same post, although I should imagine it has many similarities.
    Absolutely, she no longer holds the post of leader, she now holds a different post. And Betfair owe me £750 as a result.
    It's a real pity Betfair didn't capitalise Leader: that would have made our case even stronger. (As it is, I think "officially" should be sufficient).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    Foxy said:

    So is HMS Mordaunt now going to enter the race? Or is she in dry dock for the duration?

    I think she is Astute enough to go submarine this time, then emerge in the race after this one.

    Sane, ambitious Tories should keep their powder dry. Brexit is the destroyer of reputations and careers.
    She is indeed Astute. Her Artful style of politics could lead to an Audacious Ambush of the other candidates. Her leadership will be spoken of in the same hushed tones as Agamemnon's, her ability to sail through the choppy waters of modern politics will rival that of George Anson, and her military prowess will lead to victory in war that would make Agincourt look like a miserable failure.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    dixiedean said:

    I notice the Daily Mail has removed the picture of Nigel Farage and the defeated candidate drinking on the day of the By-election instead of focusing their attention on GOTV.

    I wonder if Tory MPs will wake up to the fact the Brexit supporting media have failed in trying to influence the Brexit debate on No Deal terms.

    The Mail has admirable chutzpah. Was reading an article today gravely warning its readers of the iniquities of FPTP, leading to a Labour government!
    I think the Peterborough By-election reinforces the Brexit supporting media into backing Boris Johnson. I was always of the view that the Brexit supporting media were only putting the wind behind Farage as a means of pressure on the Tory party. They have palpably failed and Tory MPs should wake up and smell the coffee. There are no extra votes in extremism and talk of No Deal should be abandoned. The only way forward is One Nation Toryism and compromise or No Brexit....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,828

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:
    If she’s formally resigned, then will Betfair be paying out on her leaving office in June?
    She is still leader according to the 1922, so you would think not.
    According to the 1923 she is not still Leader. In fact they confirm she has left the post of Leader. She now holds the post of Acting Leader, which is not the same post, although I should imagine it has many similarities.
    Absolutely, she no longer holds the post of leader, she now holds a different post. And Betfair owe me £750 as a result.
    It's a real pity Betfair didn't capitalise Leader: that would have made our case even stronger. (As it is, I think "officially" should be sufficient).
    But officially is a matter of record with the Electoral Commission. What do you think about the importance of their official records?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,881
    kinabalu said:

    For me it's clear re the exit date betting - Mrs May is the leader until the new one is chosen.

    The word 'acting' can be ignored.

    Yes, I used to take the contrary view, but the Betfair clarification that I posted here seemed fairly clear - as long as she was any sort of leader, they would consider her to be leader.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    To quote the Betfair terms:

    When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

    Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.

    In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

    Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

    Using the Electoral Commission register seems a reasonable way to settle it. If the Tories today vacate the Leader post with the Electoral Commission then it is today. If May remains official leader then she is still official leader.
    Surely if she were still official leader the party would not have stated that she would be _acting_ leader. There would be no need.
    Except there's been much speculation that May is not leader after today, so the comment from the 1922 that she remains Acting Leader could be confirmation that contrary to speculation she does indeed remain officially the Leader.

    As the Electoral Commission records probably will indicate. I'm sorry but for all those people speculating June is the winner I've not seen anyone address the fact that official Leader is a post parties record with the Electoral Commission.
    The Conservative Party are entitled to say whom they believe their leader is - and whether or not they have one, in accordance with their Constitution. That may or may not equate to the registered leader with the Electoral Commission, but I can't see why you would settle on the latter rather than the former.

    Anyway, all this book-talking is a bit tedious. Hopefully IBAS will find in my favour, but if they don't, hey-ho.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    For me it's clear re the exit date betting - Mrs May is the leader until the new one is chosen.

    The word 'acting' can be ignored.

    I'd like to see you try that with the Ten Commandments. It isn't "Thou Shalt Kill".
    Whereas mentally replacing "remain" with "become" is fine?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,390
    AndyJS said:
    The photoshop folk have given Leadsom odd looking hair there. She looks like Joan of arc.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,037

    kinabalu said:

    For me it's clear re the exit date betting - Mrs May is the leader until the new one is chosen.

    The word 'acting' can be ignored.

    Yes, I used to take the contrary view, but the Betfair clarification that I posted here seemed fairly clear - as long as she was any sort of leader, they would consider her to be leader.
    That clarification was only made to selected customers, thus creating a false market. They ought to have posted it to their rules. I have also complained about that.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,023
    I see the Wiki page is locked to prevent vandalism!
  • Peterborough by-election result:

    I don’t want to gloat as I don’t support Labour but as I predicted the Labour machine won the seat in Peterborough. In addition to this if the Brexit party cannot win a seat that attracted 60% Leave support in a by-election where they can focus their activity then in a general election I doubt the Brexit party would do anything other than attracting a certain level of support across the country but with very little to show for it. It does not get any better for the Brexit party than the circumstances the election was called, the national scene and the European election result. The Brexit media were fully committed to getting the Brexit party home in Peterborough and they failed. I did warn that turnout could scupper the Brexit party but was dismissed by the usual characters believing everything in the media and fickle opinion polling. I don't read much into the result but given the Brexit party only attracted 30% in a Leave seat it does make you wonder why the Brexit supporting media and some Tory politicians seem intent on a No Deal Brexit that does not attract more than a third of the vote....

    There were signs before Peterborough that TBE had maxed out. Conditions could not possibly have been more favorable for them than they were at the Euros. That is likely to prove a high-water mark for them.

    That they got so far as a Party with one Policy and only one effective spokesman is truly remarkable, but the direction of travel from here looks obvious.
    I remember posting a comment before the writ was turned that if the previous Tory MP defeated in 2017 could not win in Peterborough then I doubted a new Brexit party without the advantage of incumbency and an electoral machine would not do it.

    I suppose it all depends now on what the Brexit supporting media do (Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph, The Sun and the Daily Express). Will they craftily abandon Farage to the margins, some titles might but I think the likes of the Daily Express which is less influential will continue with their support for all things Brexit. The big question is what will the Daily Mail do and possibly the Sun. If the Daily Mail abandons Brexit then public opinion shaped by the title will see a change.
    The Sun backs winners and can be expected to jump off the bandwagon onto another.

    The Mail is shameless and will blame everybody and anybody for the Country's failure to deliver the policies the paper promotes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,417
    edited June 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lithuania is much, much warmer than I thought it would be and the local red wine is very drinkable.

    Lithuania's gain is could well be Frankfurt's loss. I think here or Estonia will be the front runners, and now there's a daily flight from LCY it's definitely in the running.

    We used to have quite substantial Estonian and Lithuanian operations. The real issues there are:

    1. They're small places, and the labor market is quite thin. Need 10 developers, no problem. Need 100, and it's difficult.
    2. They're not that cheap any more. Estonia in particular has quite high social costs, and high commercial rents.
    3. The timezone is pretty inconvenient for working with the US.

    This is for the EU banking licence and holding company.

    Don't forget that we're an Asia focussed bank so any operational departments favour the 2 hour difference.

    I think what it has done is make Frankfurt look very unattractive which also suffers from a lot of the same issues you have outlined, sometimes to a greater degree.

    Our HR team said it would be easier to get juniors to relocate for months to Vilnius than it would to get them to move to Frankfurt as well which is something in its favour.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    kinabalu said:

    For me it's clear re the exit date betting - Mrs May is the leader until the new one is chosen.

    The word 'acting' can be ignored.

    Yes, I used to take the contrary view, but the Betfair clarification that I posted here seemed fairly clear - as long as she was any sort of leader, they would consider her to be leader.

    Perhaps we can work it out like this: If aliens landed in London today, and said "Take me to your leader", who would they go to?

    Hope that helps.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,697
    Excellent piece on land tax proposals.


    A land tax can be fertile ground for Labour

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/a-land-tax-can-be-fertile-ground-for-labour-3rkb8kkfj
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,390
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Byronic said:


    I refer the Honourable Member for Blithering Away on PB Despite The Warning, to the previous warning by TheScreamingEagles

    This is irritating for me (as I am not him, whatever you believe) and utterly tedious for everyone else.

    I genuinely believe you, but you do sound uncannily like him (which is a great compliment). Had you thought of cooking up an idea for a thriller and whacking a draft first chapter off to HarperCollins or somewhere?

    I think we should probably just leave SeanT to be a well known author who probably doesn't want to be recorded saying anything politically (or otherwise) fruity on an internet blog, and welcome in his stead, Byronic, who, not being a well known author, does not have any such strictures and can speak his mind freely.
  • AndyJS said:
    The photoshop folk have given Leadsom odd looking hair there. She looks like Joan of arc.
    That's a pretty unfortunate comparison for a Europhobe. :(
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,133
    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

    New York has just overtaken London as the world's principal financial centre, according to a report released recently
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Byronic said:


    I refer the Honourable Member for Blithering Away on PB Despite The Warning, to the previous warning by TheScreamingEagles

    This is irritating for me (as I am not him, whatever you believe) and utterly tedious for everyone else.

    I genuinely believe you, but you do sound uncannily like him (which is a great compliment). Had you thought of cooking up an idea for a thriller and whacking a draft first chapter off to HarperCollins or somewhere?

    At least that is funny. Maybe the similarity comes from having lurked so long. Anyway, let us euthanise this debate, once and for all, but in a gentle, loving way, and talk of cabbages and kings, and all kinds of AV.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 12,390

    AndyJS said:
    The photoshop folk have given Leadsom odd looking hair there. She looks like Joan of arc.
    That's a pretty unfortunate comparison for a Europhobe. :(
    It's a pretty unfortunate comparison for anyone really.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I notice the Daily Mail has removed the picture of Nigel Farage and the defeated candidate drinking on the day of the By-election instead of focusing their attention on GOTV.

    I wonder if Tory MPs will wake up to the fact the Brexit supporting media have failed in trying to influence the Brexit debate on No Deal terms.

    The influence of print media is declining rapidly - I wonder how many people under 50 actually read a paper newspaper? I think we should be told.
    The printed form is diminishing quickly, I bought a copy of The Times yesterday and to be honest I realised straight away why I do not buy Newspapers anymore.

    I prefer the digital format now compared to many years ago when I preferred physical copy. I think the Daily Mail online is still influential and as the content is free is probably one of the most widely visited news outlets outside the BBC website.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 21,417
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

    New York has just overtaken London as the world's principal financial centre, according to a report released recently
    Not surprising given Trump's moves on regulations, but as a lot of us said at the time and are still saying, London's loss will not necessarily be Paris or Frankfurt's gain. In fact I'm almost certain of that fact now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,142

    Foxy said:

    So is HMS Mordaunt now going to enter the race? Or is she in dry dock for the duration?

    I think she is Astute enough to go submarine this time, then emerge in the race after this one.

    Sane, ambitious Tories should keep their powder dry. Brexit is the destroyer of reputations and careers.
    She is indeed Astute. Her Artful style of politics could lead to an Audacious Ambush of the other candidates. Her leadership will be spoken of in the same hushed tones as Agamemnon's, her ability to sail through the choppy waters of modern politics will rival that of George Anson, and her military prowess will lead to victory in war that would make Agincourt look like a miserable failure.
    Very good. I expect the current fleet of Tory Leadership candidates will be torpedoed by the wolfpack.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

    New York has just overtaken London as the world's principal financial centre, according to a report released recently
    Not surprising given Trump's moves on regulations, but as a lot of us said at the time and are still saying, London's loss will not necessarily be Paris or Frankfurt's gain. In fact I'm almost certain of that fact now.
    New York also has significant problems, which will probably get worse over time. For instance, its population is FALLING, not the sign of a city on the march.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-18/new-york-city-s-population-is-shrinking-demographic-trends

    If I had to bet on the world's biggest financial centre in 2050, it wouldn't be London OR New York, it will clearly be Hong Kong or Shanghai.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,133
    edited June 2019

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Byronic said:


    I refer the Honourable Member for Blithering Away on PB Despite The Warning, to the previous warning by TheScreamingEagles

    This is irritating for me (as I am not him, whatever you believe) and utterly tedious for everyone else.

    I genuinely believe you, but you do sound uncannily like him (which is a great compliment). Had you thought of cooking up an idea for a thriller and whacking a draft first chapter off to HarperCollins or somewhere?

    I think we should probably just leave SeanT to be a well known author who probably doesn't want to be recorded saying anything politically (or otherwise) fruity on an internet blog, and welcome in his stead, Byronic, who, not being a well known author, does not have any such strictures and can speak his mind freely.
    And some tips for anyone else not wanting to create such a misunderstanding:

    - why not use both old and new accounts concurrently, even for a few days, just to sow some confusion?
    - choose a username that doesn't have any literary connotations
    - don't deploy unduly flowerly language that >90% of PB’ers wouldn't use
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    AndyJS said:
    The photoshop folk have given Leadsom odd looking hair there. She looks like Joan of arc.
    That's a pretty unfortunate comparison for a Europhobe. :(
    It's a pretty unfortunate comparison for anyone really.
    I don't know: Joan of Arc was hot (or at least Jane Wiedlin playing her was). And I'm not just saying that because a dear friend of mine was a spitting image of her. ;)

    http://store.janewiedlin.com/signed-by-jane-joan-of-arc-w-sword-in-bill-ted/
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,620
    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    That is a brilliantly menacing photo of Raab.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,697
    No wonder people vote to leave the EU, when you hear the utter nonsense that they believe about how it controls our entire lives. Here is a classic example. Last night's loser explaining how the EU controls what time kids go to school, what is allowed on school meals menu, the curriculum, exam system and more besides.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655

    I notice the Daily Mail has removed the picture of Nigel Farage and the defeated candidate drinking on the day of the By-election instead of focusing their attention on GOTV.

    I wonder if Tory MPs will wake up to the fact the Brexit supporting media have failed in trying to influence the Brexit debate on No Deal terms.

    The influence of print media is declining rapidly - I wonder how many people under 50 actually read a paper newspaper? I think we should be told.
    The printed form is diminishing quickly, I bought a copy of The Times yesterday and to be honest I realised straight away why I do not buy Newspapers anymore.

    I prefer the digital format now compared to many years ago when I preferred physical copy. I think the Daily Mail online is still influential and as the content is free is probably one of the most widely visited news outlets outside the BBC website.
    I get a free Telegraph with bottled water at airports, and wonder at their chutzpah in pretending that it is the water which is free. Otherwise never see the things.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,055

    AndyJS said:
    The photoshop folk have given Leadsom odd looking hair there. She looks like Joan of arc.
    That's a pretty unfortunate comparison for a Europhobe. :(
    It's a pretty unfortunate comparison for anyone really.
    I don't know: Joan of Arc was hot (or at least Jane Wiedlin playing her was). And I'm not just saying that because a dear friend of mine was a spitting image of her. ;)

    http://store.janewiedlin.com/signed-by-jane-joan-of-arc-w-sword-in-bill-ted/
    Noah's wife.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,620

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Byronic said:


    I refer the Honourable Member for Blithering Away on PB Despite The Warning, to the previous warning by TheScreamingEagles

    This is irritating for me (as I am not him, whatever you believe) and utterly tedious for everyone else.

    I genuinely believe you, but you do sound uncannily like him (which is a great compliment). Had you thought of cooking up an idea for a thriller and whacking a draft first chapter off to HarperCollins or somewhere?

    I think we should probably just leave SeanT to be a well known author who probably doesn't want to be recorded saying anything politically (or otherwise) fruity on an internet blog, and welcome in his stead, Byronic, who, not being a well known author, does not have any such strictures and can speak his mind freely.
    Would SeanT not have said "I am not he" rather than "I am not him"?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    No wonder people vote to leave the EU, when you hear the utter nonsense that they believe about how it controls our entire lives. Here is a classic example. Last night's loser explaining how the EU controls what time kids go to school, what is allowed on school meals menu, the curriculum, exam system and more besides.

    I can't bear to click on it. Does he really say all that?

    *cringes, expectantly*
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

    New York has just overtaken London as the world's principal financial centre, according to a report released recently
    I thought it always was number one in that respect. Interesting that London has recently overtaken NYC in terms of population.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,697
    Byronic said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Byronic said:


    I refer the Honourable Member for Blithering Away on PB Despite The Warning, to the previous warning by TheScreamingEagles

    This is irritating for me (as I am not him, whatever you believe) and utterly tedious for everyone else.

    I genuinely believe you, but you do sound uncannily like him (which is a great compliment). Had you thought of cooking up an idea for a thriller and whacking a draft first chapter off to HarperCollins or somewhere?

    At least that is funny. Maybe the similarity comes from having lurked so long. Anyway, let us euthanise this debate, once and for all, but in a gentle, loving way, and talk of cabbages and kings, and all kinds of AV.
    This is all beginning to seem like some kind of weird version of Turing's Test.

    Can we tell whether the person behind the handle is really SeanT or not?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,133
    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

    New York has just overtaken London as the world's principal financial centre, according to a report released recently
    I thought it always was number one in that respect. Interesting that London has recently overtaken NYC in terms of population.
    The stat I find remarkable is that London has only surpassed its 1939 population in the last few years
This discussion has been closed.