politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Peterborough Chronicle. About that by-election
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Peterborough Chronicle. About that by-election
Twitter, are we not going to spend the day using Peterborough to share dodgy maths & bar charts like we did after the European elections?
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Labour are not a Remain party.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48555889
No problem, it’s forgotten
Thanks sir.
Groucho Marx
But yes, certainly a good result for Labour however you play it.
*Yes, I am well aware that looks to be an impossible task.
Jess, Wes...Jes, Wess...Je, Wess...JEWS!!
Can hardly blame them for being a bit cross when Jezza comes through smelling of roses again
BXP is not going to get ground-games and inside constituency knowledge given the way that it is set up so will always rely on national messaging and momentum. That means its fortunes will depend on what other parties do around Brexit. On that basis, you'd expect it to significantly under-perform its current polling in a general election campaign. Its only role will be to cause damage - mostly to the Tories if the demographics identified in Chaminda Jayanetti's research are correct.
Yes it was 17%, only 7% above their very worst showing in the constituency. Their result improved slightly in 2017 despite it clearly being a two horse race between the Conservatives and LDs. I can't see the voters of say, Ystradglynais, suddenly finding a yearning for the LDs when they've had the opportunity before.
Er .....
1. Worst result ever for a winning by-election candidate.
2. Awful result nine years into Conservative government.
3. Winning Labour candidate continues Labour "Jewish issues."
4. Result confirms Labour 20% nationally - Curtice.
5. More Peterborough "good result" nationally spells disaster for Labour.
If he can renegotiate the backstop with the EU perhaps with Gove as Brexit Secretary all to the good as the Brady amendment showed there is a majority for that in the Commons, if not he should go into a general election promising a FTA for GB and keeping the backstop for Northern Ireland until a technical solution is found to the Irish border there. If he has to start the DUP so be it, as the European elections in NI showed it is now the Alliance Party voters who are the key swing voters in the province anyway, the DUP does not have a majority there
https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1136962303381975046?s=21
Knockdown evidence that you can't dictate what an election is about - and if you can't in a by election, a fortiori you can't in a GE. So that's that route out of the current mess closed off.
Tactically and short term on the plus side :
1. Labour won
2. Labour gained tactical LibDem and Green votes - Curtice
3. Farage wet haddocked.
Strategically - As my previous post.
Hahaha. Very good.
However I'd much rather have someone of Mike Greene's calibre in Parliament than Lisa Forbes, regardless of their views on Brexit.
It comes to something when edging out TBP is marked as a triumph of expectation management.
Time to ask for your money back:
https://theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/06/galloway-charity-may-have-delivered-no-aid-despite-1m-donations
As Richard N. points out, the Tory party is so permanently fractured that a similarly poor result, replicated in a general election, is quite capable of making Labour the party of government.
1. In the medium term, this is good for the Lib Dems, as it will cement Corbyn's policy of equivocation and halt any further movement towards Labour adopting a second referendum policy. The Lib Dems will continue to be the "party of Remain".
2. On Twitter, Conservative activists are already rolling out the "vote Farage, get Corbyn" line. That's fine except I'm not sure people will believe it. If the argument is "splitting the Brexit vote will let Labour in", why will Brexiteers side for a we-don't-know-what-Brexit-we-want party (the Conservatives) rather than a Brexit-right-now party (TBP)?
What. The. F*ck.
(Waits for someone in her team to say that the betting markets show she’s a serious contender).
In all seriousness if they believe the rubbish they spout then they can't really justify staying. I wouldn't be sitting in a party I thought was racist. Jess would join him if she had any morals.
I'm conflicted. TBD "deserve" representation in the HoC as indeed I argued previously that UKIP did but Farage reduces my sympathy to almost zero.
That said the personal shouldn't intrude on the principle.
As for Lisa Forbes. She's damned lucky that she was the nominated candidate before her "interesting" views surfaced.
The voters clearly decided that Forbes was the least worst of two unpalatable options.
Might be enough to get the WA over the line.
If you ignore the froth from early ballot paper verifications, actually the people with ears on the ground seemed to do well, better than journalists who turned up for a day and wrote their 'prediction' anyway.
The Tories are doing something to staunch their blood letting of voters.
What are Labour doing...?
It would definitely be possible for a spirited Brexit-credentialed PM to tell a good story on this. Insist that it be binding, project confidence that it will be won, pitch it as another chance to pwn the remoaners, etc etc.
In the referendum Boris as frontman was key to getting Leave over 50%, as Cummings for example realised having Farage as frontman would likely have seen Leave fall short and a narrow Remain win
Celebrate Comrade
Or more likely for you join the Wes Streeting Jess Phillips slapped ass fest.
Given the views of most Tory activists nowadays, it is pretty ripe if they think trying to frighten voters with him will be an effective strategy against Labour. These are the same activists who mostly voted for Farage themselves just a few weeks back.
A vote for the Brexit candidate risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.
A vote for the Tory candidate in the same seat risks splitting the Leave vote and letting Labour in.
Without a pact, the parties of Brexit are locked in a FPTP deadly embrace.
Shame...
What is going to change on Labour's side?
BRX 26%
LD 20%
Lab 20%
Con 18%
Greens 9%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019