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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Peterborough Chronicle. About that by-election

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,973
    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, everyone.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/07/brexit-strange-death-british-conservatism

    “The Tory party has been contaminated by a revolutionary project which bears very little resemblance to its historic traditions”

    You could imagine the same article written about (or at least the same principles being applied) in 1975 with reference to Heath and Thatcher (/Joseph).
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Somewhat offtopic, I have to schlep from Richmond to Paddington to see an ancient friend. I haven't loitered in Paddington in centuries. Is it still horrible? Can any Londoners on this site recommend a decent drinking place around there?

    When I used to work around those parts we used to use the Victoria and the Duke of Kendal.

    Victoriapaddington.co.uk

    Dukeofkendal.co.uk
    Thanks. Most useful.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    62% of Tory MPs have endorsed a candidate. If they were representative, the result of the first round would be:

    Johnson 78, Gove 53, Hunt 53, Raab 38, Javid 26, Hancock 21,
    Harper 10, McVey 10, Stewart 10, Leadsom 8, Gyimah 6.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited June 2019
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    That raises a further question: why is New York City's population falling, despite a rising overall American population? London suffers many of NYC's problems - housing, crime, etc - yet London is growing alongside the UK.

    This long, nostalgic, leftwing analysis says that New York City has become boring, unremarkable, generic, a billionaire's club.

    https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/

    Alternatively, it might be because New Yorkers are no longer having sex in the park. A truly bad sign for ANY great city.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sex-in-new-york-parks-droops-as-amorous-incidents-decline-by-98-percent


    London, you have been warned. Get dogging.

    Are you sure you’re not @SeanT?
    Of course he is. It's blindingly obvious. Let's move on...
    rcs1000 told us the other week that he is most obviously not, using IP addresses, etc.
    Well I am with BT Broadband, and if I turn my router off and on, my IP address changes.
    Why are you so obsessed? If this were in meatspace you’d be a stalker.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,584

    Mr. Sandpit, just last year, I think.

    The odds seemed excessively generous. As a rule, I dislike long term bets, but that one was too good to miss.

    That is indeed excessively generous.
    Lewis is 1.25 for this year’s title, right now that looks like the odds on him getting injured.
    Mercedes are 1.02 already for the constructors’.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Byronic is either SeanT or a very good imitator.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,432
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    That raises a further question: why is New York City's population falling, despite a rising overall American population? London suffers many of NYC's problems - housing, crime, etc - yet London is growing alongside the UK.

    This long, nostalgic, leftwing analysis says that New York City has become boring, unremarkable, generic, a billionaire's club.

    https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/

    Alternatively, it might be because New Yorkers are no longer having sex in the park. A truly bad sign for ANY great city.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sex-in-new-york-parks-droops-as-amorous-incidents-decline-by-98-percent


    London, you have been warned. Get dogging.

    Are you sure you’re not @SeanT?
    Of course he is. It's blindingly obvious. Let's move on...
    rcs1000 told us the other week that he is most obviously not, using IP addresses, etc.
    Well I am with BT Broadband, and if I turn my router off and on, my IP address changes.
    Not an expert but you have an IP address within your home network (e.g. 192.168.1.0) and an external one that's different and can be traced to an approximate location.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,000
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    That raises a further question: why is New York City's population falling, despite a rising overall American population? London suffers many of NYC's problems - housing, crime, etc - yet London is growing alongside the UK.

    This long, nostalgic, leftwing analysis says that New York City has become boring, unremarkable, generic, a billionaire's club.

    https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/

    Alternatively, it might be because New Yorkers are no longer having sex in the park. A truly bad sign for ANY great city.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sex-in-new-york-parks-droops-as-amorous-incidents-decline-by-98-percent


    London, you have been warned. Get dogging.

    Are you sure you’re not @SeanT?
    Of course he is. It's blindingly obvious. Let's move on...
    Striving to be anonymous is not a characteristic of SeanT that ever leapt out.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,432

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, everyone.

    See you later, TSE.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    Posters’ identity is not really a fruitful subject. What they say is more interesting.
  • tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited June 2019
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Well the bad news is the Momentum Marxists won, the very good news is the fascists lost. The bad news for the Conservative Party is that the activists that most of the leadership candidates are sucking up to are more than likely supporting and voting for a different party.

    Time for the Conservatives to be Conservatives again, grow some, start showing some philosophical leadership and stop dancing to the tune of extremists

    I agree that those who are suggesting the Tory party will somehow disappear are overstating the case. There is clearly an enduring constituency there, provided the party can come to terms with the loss of its primacy amongst business and the middle classes and embrace a more cultural dimension to its politics.

    Under PR, the ‘new’ Conservatives would be an enduring part of our political scene.

    What is facing a mortal threat is the future of the Conservatives as a potential majority government under our current system. As Richard_N spelled out in the last thread, every Brexit outcome loses them a chunk of support, and by the time they recover from its ramifications our politics may well look very different.
    __________

    David Gauke, i.e. clearly a sensible one, was interviewed on R4 and failed to make the obvious case for PR and a 'One Nation Party', i.e. all the Tory pro-EU MPs including Sandbach, Burt, Clarke, Lee, Stewart etc. However, I gather he's under threat from his local party for being slightly 'sensible' and supporting a 'deal'.

    Has his local party been infiltrated? It sounds like the mirror image of Militant/1980s but there's no apparent figure to stand up to the zealots.
    The problem the Tories have is of trying to hang onto policies that protect the economy and labour market when the large majority of their members have retired from it on (apparently) fixed incomes.
    I noticed a Peterborough Conservative member on the TV last night before the result was out. He claimed Nigel Farage would get 450 seats in a GE if their was No Brexit. The individual must have been a social member as he clearly does not understand how FPTP elections work to make wild predictions like that. I actually thought it was quite an amusing comment and shows how Brexit has warped the minds of those Tory members who view everything through the lens of Brexit being executed. The Tories certainly need a period in opposition, the only problem is Labour are not fit for Government either...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,363
    Betfair have totally got it wrong over the May markets' settlement.
  • NEW THREAD

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,912
    matt said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/07/brexit-strange-death-british-conservatism

    “The Tory party has been contaminated by a revolutionary project which bears very little resemblance to its historic traditions”

    You could imagine the same article written about (or at least the same principles being applied) in 1975 with reference to Heath and Thatcher (/Joseph).
    Good point. I've stated on here frequently that parties don't have principles per se, they are a coalition of tribes who use principles retrospectively to justify whatever they just did. It's the tribe that's the governing thing, not the principles. British Conservatism isn't dying, it's evolving, as it always has done.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 35,297
    edited June 2019

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week. :(
    Weathermen should be paid by results.

    When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.
    One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,984
    That's quite interesting information, though I don't know that it is all that significant - a harder Brexiteer already has 50ish nominations, so with transfers from the already declared and just a few more is probably safe even if most of those who have not declared are ones who were May loyalists.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,584
    edited June 2019
    Freggles said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    .

    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    That raises a further question: why is New York City's population falling, despite a rising overall American population? London suffers many of NYC's problems - housing, crime, etc - yet London is growing alongside the UK.

    This long, nostalgic, leftwing analysis says that New York City has become boring, unremarkable, generic, a billionaire's club.

    https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/

    Alternatively, it might be because New Yorkers are no longer having sex in the park. A truly bad sign for ANY great city.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sex-in-new-york-parks-droops-as-amorous-incidents-decline-by-98-percent


    London, you have been warned. Get dogging.

    Are you sure you’re not @SeanT?
    Of course he is. It's blindingly obvious. Let's move on...
    rcs1000 told us the other week that he is most obviously not, using IP addresses, etc.
    Well I am with BT Broadband, and if I turn my router off and on, my IP address changes.
    Not an expert but you have an IP address within your home network (e.g. 192.168.1.0) and an external one that's different and can be traced to an approximate location.
    People are confusing internal and external IP addresses.

    192.168.x.x are internal addresses, as are 10.x.x.x. These are defined by your own network equipment.

    Look at a website such as www.whatismyip.com for what your external IP address is to the outside world. Most residential ISP connections don’t guarantee that this address is static, they’ll often make a point of changing it occasionally to stop you running a server on it (they charge a lot more for business connections with static IP addresses).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,984
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    That raises a further question: why is New York City's population falling, despite a rising overall American population? London suffers many of NYC's problems - housing, crime, etc - yet London is growing alongside the UK.

    This long, nostalgic, leftwing analysis says that New York City has become boring, unremarkable, generic, a billionaire's club.

    https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/

    Alternatively, it might be because New Yorkers are no longer having sex in the park. A truly bad sign for ANY great city.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sex-in-new-york-parks-droops-as-amorous-incidents-decline-by-98-percent


    London, you have been warned. Get dogging.

    Are you sure you’re not @SeanT?
    Of course he is. It's blindingly obvious. Let's move on...
    I honestly got no sense of that until people started banging on about it, why keep doing so?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,104
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Evidence, M'Lud:

    London's population is expected to grow 750,000 in just the next seven years. Almost a ten percent increase. Extraordinary.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based

    London's 10% predicted growth is based on 25% increase in over 65s and 7% increase in under 65s. Given people historically have left London as they get older it seems an unlikely mix of growth to me. I can see it rising by 10% or more or falling, but think the assumptions they have used must be wrong to have got that age profile.
    Is that 25% increase in the over 65's very different to the expected population growth of the nation as a whole? it sounds about right to me:

    That raises a further question: why is New York City's population falling, despite a rising overall American population? London suffers many of NYC's problems - housing, crime, etc - yet London is growing alongside the UK.

    This long, nostalgic, leftwing analysis says that New York City has become boring, unremarkable, generic, a billionaire's club.

    https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/

    Alternatively, it might be because New Yorkers are no longer having sex in the park. A truly bad sign for ANY great city.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sex-in-new-york-parks-droops-as-amorous-incidents-decline-by-98-percent


    London, you have been warned. Get dogging.

    Are you sure you’re not @SeanT?
    Of course he is. It's blindingly obvious. Let's move on...
    I honestly got no sense of that until people started banging on about it, why keep doing so?
    Neither had I until I saw viewcode's post. As I said, let's move on.

    Although it seems odd that rcs went checking up on a user's IP and posting the results here? There's nothing wrong with switching account names, surely?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,397
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:


    MaxPB said:

    That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

    Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.


    Middle Office jobs (risk analysts and the like) and high end IT jobs are moving to Eastern Europe on a balance of skills and costs. The UK PRA is losing its lead role in implementing EU regulation to authorities in France and Germany and to the ECB itself. Who controls the regulation is what counts for financial services, not market access itself. New York has always between a regulatory heavyweight.
    Genuinely, you know fuck all about fuck all. You chat so much shit, but make it sound clever but in reality it's just shit rolled in glitter.

    I'm literally scouting a potential holding company site for us in Vilnius which will have about 100 people while the rest of our European operation has been consolidated to our new Liverpool Street HQ. We've brought jobs from Europe to London.

    Ultimately, the market is proving us right and you wrong. Investors loathe the EU, us leaving will cause investors to leave the EU.
    Are you really this childish and antisocial in the flesh? I ask because most people I meet everyday do keep to the norms of polite society.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,396

    Cyclefree said:

    I see Jess Phillips and Wes Streeting have slapped ass faces this morning.

    Are you proud of being only the second party - after the BNP - being formally investigated for racism - and by an institution Labour set up?
    You're one of the last posters I would expect to conflate "being investigated for" and "being guilty of" in order to score political points. How disappointing.
    Er....that’s why I used the phrase “being formally investigated for”. We will see what the Commission rules.

    My personal view is that (a) there have far too many instances of anti-semitism by Labour members to be able to say that this is just 1 or 2 rotten apples; ( b) Labour’s response to the problems has been truly abysmal; and (c) Corbyn has shown an utter failure of leadership.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,396

    Byronic said:

    Yes, exactly. And I cannot see any reason why Britain should be immune to this particular American trend, when we adopt all the others, right down to things like Black Friday...

    No we don't. When did gun control, abortion or religion become key issues in British politics?
    Gun control is irrelevant.

    Abortion is an issue in NI. I hope it doesn’t become one here.

    Religion: see the Rushdie Fatwa / Birmingham schools etc.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,396

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/07/brexit-strange-death-british-conservatism

    “The Tory party has been contaminated by a revolutionary project which bears very little resemblance to its historic traditions”

    Bugger! I was going to do a thread header on just that. Ah well. Back to the drawing board.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 29,083
    MaxPB said:

    Lithuania is much, much warmer than I thought it would be and the local red wine is very drinkable.

    Lithuania's gain is could well be Frankfurt's loss. I think here or Estonia will be the front runners, and now there's a daily flight from LCY it's definitely in the running.

    Vilnius is miserable in winter. I’d strongly recommend Tallinn if those are the choices
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

    Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

    Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?
    Dunno about any of that. My garden needs RAIN. I was promised nearly an inch today.

    I got barely 4mm.

    The South Eastern drought continues.

    The rain is needed.
This discussion has been closed.