politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that turnout is down markedly

Bloxwich East (Walsall)
LABOUR 975
CONSERVATIVE 1102
Con gain.

> @another_richard said:
> > @kle4 said:
> > https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1124089794701799425
> >
> >
> >
> > Tories would be ecstatic withthat I imagine.
>
> Beyond ecstatic - for a governing party to be ahead two years after the GE would be remarkable.
>
> Especially given the mess the government is in.

If those figures are right, it'd be a net gain for Con against 2011 (I don't know the effect of boundary changes but it *probably* wouldn't be big enough to swing it, I'd think).

Lib Dems very upbeat about Vale of the White Horse.

> @Wulfrun_Phil said:
> Bloxwich East (Walsall)
> LABOUR 975
> CONSERVATIVE 1102
> Con gain.

The area which had the lowest number of signatures on the Second Referendum petition.

> @AndreaParma_82 said:
> Con gain Hulton from Labour in Bolton
>
> Bolton council is quite unpopular. They were losing by-elections in huge swings in recent months

Quite unpopular is putting it mildly. Compared to Wigan they are w..k. I grew up on the border.

> @david_herdson said:
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1124089794701799425
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Tories would be ecstatic withthat I imagine.
> >
> > Beyond ecstatic - for a governing party to be ahead two years after the GE would be remarkable.
> >
> > Especially given the mess the government is in.
>
> If those figures are right, it'd be a net gain for Con against 2011 (I don't know the effect of boundary changes but it *probably* wouldn't be big enough to swing it, I'd think).

It would be a net gain against 2007.

Conservatives have just lost about 15 seats according to the beeb tracker

> @KentRising said:
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > Labour lose control of Hartlepool.
>
> Labour are getting fisted tonight. I'm breaking out the vanilla Oreos.

Ooh, you sod!

> @edmundintokyo said:
> > @Danny565 said:
> > in my experience, people (Remain voters and Leave voters) are mostly hacked off at him being too dogmatically anti-Brexit, and point-blank refusing to vote through anything the Tories propose on Brexit
>
> What experience is this that you're having where you're finding all these Remain voters who think Corbyn is too dogmatically anti-Brexit?

People I work with, who think he's being childish by just saying "no" to everything the Tories propose.

And the aforementioned YouGov polling suggests that my experience is more typical than some Twitter commentators' experience.

I am feeling sorry for Barry Gardiner. He's one of the few Labour front benchers I like. Maybe the only one.

He's doing the best he can on the BBC, but given the results, eeesh.

Independents on 36 - up 22 (BBC).

Good night not to have a blue or red rosette?

AndreaParma_82 said:

Labour gain Kew in Sefton



I don't know from who



CON: 454

GREEN: 212

LAB: 1124

LIB DEM: 791

UKIP: 446

From Lib Dem.

Don't they always relatively poor in locals there? Con usually won Wirral constituencies in the locals raising interests in the parliamentary seats and then Labour hold them in high turnout

> @TheValiant said:
> Also seeing the Wirral results. As a born and bred Wallasey lad, I'm shocked Labour are getting such a kicking over there.

I predict whatever happens the bulk of lab MPs will say it shows the need to come out clearly for remain, and bulk oftory MPs say it shows they need to stop trying to deal with Corbyn. Shocking I know.

> @AndreaParma_82 said:
> Labour gain Kew in Sefton
>
> I don't know from who
>
> CON: 454
> GREEN: 212
> LAB: 1124
> LIB DEM: 791
> UKIP: 446

From the LibDems.

Its in formerly LibDem Southport constituency.

AndyJS said:

> @TheValiant said:

> I know few care in a Bootle ward, but looking at my result:

>

> Labour significantly down - drops below 50% which is the first time since 2014.

> Turnout not really down on last year. 32% from 34%.

> Conservatives go (slightly) backwards too. Lib Dems and Green are the biggest winners here.

>

> Victoria was a fairly solid Lib Dem ward throughout the 1990s to 2010s.

>

> So, here, I'd say neither Con nor Lab have anything to cheer about, especially not Labour.

> Lib Dems and Greens both making progress.

> Turnout is NOT significantly down.



I don't know how the Tories could go any lower in Bootle.

The Conservatives (nationally) came 2nd in 2017 GE in Bootle. Just that it's not hard to come 2nd. You need to remember to vote for yourself, and get ONE other person to do so and you come second.

Wow

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124100836316073990

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124097945694089218

Think I may die laughing over Seamus and Jezza's brilliant tactics.

Lots of bad Tory results starting to come in,

Predicting labour to be about 50 down
Tory down 600
Lib Dems up 500
Greens up 100

When all is done

Green vote well up says Curtice.

Time for a Labour leadership challenge?

Jo Swinson saying with great relish that JRM is going to have a Lib Dem district councillor!

Seems like Lab are losing Brexit-motivted voters to LD/Greens, but Cons aren't the other way….. cos no Brexit party around to take them.

First council result completed — Sunderland:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q33LipQw_OS8b6u-tTM14iyzkKcEAs6qQve4OLt_Bo8/edit#gid=753159994

Labour lise wirral to noc

> @Thayer5 said:
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Labour's problem is that they don't have London, Birmingham, Scotland and Wales to come to their rescue tonight. Particularly London.<
>
> _______
>
> Labour no longer have Scotland. Which is one massive issue for them, that they seem unable to resolve.

Indeed Labour lost the one by-election in Scotland tonight to the SNP

9.5% swing lab to con in wirral

Saltire said:

> @Thayer5 said:

> > @AndyJS said:

> > Labour's problem is that they don't have London, Birmingham, Scotland and Wales to come to their rescue tonight. Particularly London.<

>

> _______

>

> Labour no longer have Scotland. Which is one massive issue for them, that they seem unable to resolve.



Indeed Labour lost the one by-election in Scotland tonight to the SNP

@justin124 assures me the Lab surge in Scotland will happen any day now.

Interesting results so far. Hilarious in some cases.

Based on which I suspect it's now safe to say there won't be a GE this year. Can't see Labour MPs being mad enough to vote for one, Tories clearly won't. So there won't be one.

> @KentRising said:
> For Britain wins a seat in Hartlepool.

For Britain indeed

Gallowgate said:

Saltire said:

> @Thayer5 said:

> > @AndyJS said:

> > Labour's problem is that they don't have London, Birmingham, Scotland and Wales to come to their rescue tonight. Particularly London.<

>

> _______

>

> Labour no longer have Scotland. Which is one massive issue for them, that they seem unable to resolve.



Indeed Labour lost the one by-election in Scotland tonight to the SNP

@justin124 assures me the Lab surge in Scotland will happen any day now.

Do we need a SLAB surge klaxon?

Goodness me this deputy UKIP leader is a nasty piece of work

AndreaParma_82 said:

Labour gain Kew in Sefton



I don't know from who



CON: 454

GREEN: 212

LAB: 1124

LIB DEM: 791

UKIP: 446

From Lib Dems (2015 result).

The irony of this is that the original argument for Corbynism was that centrist Labour was facing an existential threat from the Greens or other left-wing parties that would offer progressive voters something they could believe in, but Corbyn's ended up serving up their vote on a plate because he couldn't resist his inner tankie.

KentRising said:

Yet another election which further cements Labour as the party of the affluent south. Oh the irony.

Let's wait until the southern shires have declared before concluding that!

Final result in Newcastle just declared in Parklands. Overall results:

https://democracy.newcastle.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=9&AC=EDIT_ELECTION&RPID=6225636

Popular vote:

Lab 38%
LD 23%
Con 11%
Greens 9%
Ind 6%
UKIP 6%
Newcastle First 4%

edmundintokyo said:

The irony of this is that the original argument for Corbynism was that centrist Labour was facing an existential threat from the Greens or other left-wing parties that would offer progressive voters something they could believe in, but Corbyn's ended up serving up their vote on a plate because he couldn't resist his inner tankie.

I wonder whether Labour had wind of this in the last couple of days? Jezza and co have spent a lot of time on climate change policy since beginning of week.

Not enough. Jezza's obvious blocking of a 2nd vote may well do for him.

> @Thayer5 said:
> So Labour getting totally waxed in the North, the Tories doing poorly in the south (but not as poorly as expected)?

The Tories are losing seats to the LDs in the south, but I don't think we know yet what's happening in the south in Con/Lab battles. Basildon the only one so far.

The results in Brentwood are startling considering it is Leave area - Lib Dem vote up 22%!

> @Thayer5 said:
> Brits really don't want Corbynite Marxism. When will Labour realise this, AND do something about it?

I'm not sure Marxism is the right word but optimistically, June 2022.

Wow. Barry Gardiner is actually laughing in his response to the Sunderland Labour leader who's blaming the national party for his losses. Tact not your strong point, Barry. Though to be fair I'm not quite sure what your strong point might be.

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