politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that turnout is down markedly
Comments
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> @williamglenn said:
> Some spectacular results for the Greens.
I voted Green today for the first time in my life. It was the closest I could get to a protest vote, with no independent or SDP or etc in my area. Should think it's the same in a lot of areas.0 -
The chair of the Green Party is a friend and a fellow town councillor. I will buy her a drink tomorrow if this carries on.
Unless (as I fear) she splits the vote in our ward and the Conservative displaces the Lib Dem, in which case she can damn well buy me one.0 -
Same here. Very annoying. With that and the rubbish quote system, the site is becoming unreadable.dixiedean said:Re Huawei. Best, closest pronunciation is Whah (Scots wh sound) way as in a street. Quote function crashing my site on IPad quicker than the Labour vote in Sunderland.
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Looks fun
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1124085918724493312
Presumably not as dramatic as it seems.0 -
> @Gallowgate said:
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124088488004128771
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Has Sunderland gone NOC yet? lol!0 -
Re South Tyneside
because there are 13 undeclared wards at the moment and even if Labour lose all of them they will keep the majority on the council as only 1/3 was up
> @El_Capitano said:
> The BBC elections ticker has suddenly announced council holds for Broxbourne (Con), Wigan (Lab), South Tyneside (Lab), Havant (Con). Err... why?
>
> Also, WTF GREENS GAIN BIRKENHEAD0 -
> @CarlottaVance said:
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/02/gavin-williamson-allies-reveal-evidence-confronted-theresa-may/
>
>
>
> Claim by Williamson that the only evidence against him is the fact of his 11 minute call to the telegraph.
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> "only"
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> To the journalist that broke the story the following day.
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> If you were PM, would you have confidence in such a minister?
I am reporting this, not endorsing it. But the answer is that i would reserve judgment, in view of Williamsons claim that
The phone calls included an 11-minute conversation with Steven Swinford, The Daily Telegraph’s deputy political editor, which, Mr Williamson explained, had been about other matters which he detailed to the investigator.
If that is true Williamson has the right to have the claim investigated.0 -
The real questions have to be asked of Labour tonight, not Tories.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/11240893013677589460 -
> @Thayer5 said:
> @Danny565 said:
>
> > > You what? NO.
> >
> > Your writing style just reminds me of his.<
>
> _______
>
> I take that as a mild compliment. I lurked for a longtime. He was entertaining - but far too angry and Brexity for me.
Only on Mondays and Fridays
Consistency not his strong point0 -
Coverage on Beeb stating 'terrible night for The Tories.' Maybe, but Labour failing being ignored.0
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Early. But look what is happening in Germany where SDP collapsed and AfD are on the rise.williamglenn said:Some spectacular results for the Greens.
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These are remarkably bad results for Labour. At midterm, facing the most inept government since Aethelred the Constantly Sodomised.0
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Peter Mayhew, Chewbacca in Star Wars, died today aged 74.
<Lets out Wookiee war cry>
<goes to bed>0 -
In re deadly pestilence and dwelling-places.
I'm jolly thankful there was an Indy in my ward to vote for.0 -
Best of luck Nick.NickPalmer said:Turnout felt high in my Surrey (Waverley Binscombe) ward. The Labour promise turned out at General election levels (70-80%) but there were lots of Tories too - the polling station was bust all day without interruption. I genuinely have no idea what to expect. The returning officer claimed it was illegal to tell us the total turnout figure - something that's news to me, can anyone confirm this view?
But as I reported earlier, I expect the LibDems to be the obvious winners overall, without a real Tory meltdown.0 -
> @Foxy said:
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124086864879788040
> >
> >
> >
> > Labour down also in working class area of Newcastle. Previous election was only last year.
>
> The problem of sitting on the fence is that you lose votes to both sides.
But Labour aren't seen as on the fence. Per YouGov, more than three times as many people see them as anti-Brexit than pro-. And the result is a big net loss of votes.
If Labour want to win the next election, they're just going to have to pass May's shitty deal and put up with a few people on Twitter whining about it.0 -
Strange that Swinford's scoop was about something else entirely different, donchathink?Ishmael_Z said:
The phone calls included an 11-minute conversation with Steven Swinford, The Daily Telegraph’s deputy political editor, which, Mr Williamson explained, had been about other matters0 -
I think the Tories have gained Barnes in Sunderland. (Assuming it was Labour before).
Con 1216
Lab 1009
UKIP 479
LD 430
Green 225
https://www.sunderland.gov.uk/media/21288/Results-of-Poll-Local-Government-Election-May-2019-Barnes-ward/pdf/Local_Declaration_Coms_for_Barnes_correct_as_of_Friday__3_May_2019_0_12.pdf?m=6369243932283300000 -
It's past midnight and the Tories are still on net gain territory. Labour are in -14 territory. Big lolz.0
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John Curtice!0
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> @CarlottaVance said:
> The phone calls included an 11-minute conversation with Steven Swinford, The Daily Telegraph’s deputy political editor, which, Mr Williamson explained, had been about other matters
>
> Strange that Swinford's scoop was about something else entirely different, donchathink?
Yes, very good, award yourself a medal for idiot cunning.0 -
John Curtis: no evidence that turnout is down on normal local election only turnout.0
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> @AndyJS said:
> I think the Tories have gained Barnes in Sunderland. (Assuming it was Labour before).
>
> Con 1216
> Lab 1009
> UKIP 479
> LD 430
> Green 225
>
> https://www.sunderland.gov.uk/media/21288/Results-of-Poll-Local-Government-Election-May-2019-Barnes-ward/pdf/Local_Declaration_Coms_for_Barnes_correct_as_of_Friday__3_May_2019_0_12.pdf?m=636924393228330000
4 Con and 2 UKIP (plus the LibDems and Greens) gains in Sunderland it seems:
https://www.sunderland.gov.uk/0 -
> @TGOHF said:
> Coverage on Beeb stating 'terrible night for The Tories.' Maybe, but Labour failing being ignored.
>
> As usual the Beeb have a script and are glacially slow at reacting to events.<
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The ever reliable Laura k is now rising to the challenge. The BBC are lucky to have her, especially with the vile abuse she gets on social media.0 -
Most of the received wisdom of what would happen tonight has turned out to be wrong so far: turnout isn't down, Labour aren't doing well, UKIP are doing better than expected. All of those are the opposite of what the media was saying was likely.0
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With Michael Crick stepping down, we have a new King Queen of the Doorstep:
https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/11240823806025195580 -
RIPDrutt said:Peter Mayhew, Chewbacca in Star Wars, died today aged 74.
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> @Danny565 said:
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124086864879788040
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Labour down also in working class area of Newcastle. Previous election was only last year.
> >
> > The problem of sitting on the fence is that you lose votes to both sides.
>
> But Labour aren't seen as on the fence. Per YouGov, more than three times as many people see them as anti-Brexit than pro-. And the result is a big net loss of votes.
>
> If Labour want to win the next election, they're just going to have to pass May's shitty deal and put up with a few people on Twitter whining about it.
Nail on the head.0 -
Labour-15. Tories +2. Love it0
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Never going to happen. Those MPs who want so desperately to remain passing a deal without a referendum?Danny565 said:> @Foxy said:
> > @Gallowgate said:
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Labour down also in working class area of Newcastle. Previous election was only last year.
>
> The problem of sitting on the fence is that you lose votes to both sides.
But Labour aren't seen as on the fence. Per YouGov, more than three times as many people see them as anti-Brexit than pro-. And the result is a big net loss of votes.
If Labour want to win the next election, they're just going to have to pass May's shitty deal and put up with a few people on Twitter whining about it.
Brexit may well be more important for both sides than winning a GE.0 -
In my ward [counts tomorrow] in South Norfolk: Turnout estimated by speaking to presiding officers at 2130 and making the allowance for the 60pc turnout for postals [from Deputy RO] is 37%. In 2011 [the last 'normal' election] t/out as 49pc. Last time [GE] was 76.6pc. So: turnout down but not outrageously so.
Boundary changes affect incumbency: Boundary changes in c50 of 250 councils being fought in this cycle, don't forget.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot0 -
If Greens do well tonight, might they come 2nd to BP in euros as Lab Remainers who are besides angry at Jezza, decide to vote for the party who are clearly remain and are not LibDem tuition fee merchants etc etc?0
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> @KentRising said:
> It's past midnight and the Tories are still on net gain territory. Labour are in -14 territory. Big lolz.
Agreed. Still dire. Tory shires not in though.0 -
Newcastle results available here:
https://democracy.newcastle.gov.uk/mgElectionElectionAreaResults.aspx?EID=9&RPID=64838360 -
> @rottenborough said:
> Some spectacular results for the Greens.
>
> Early. But look what is happening in Germany where SDP collapsed and AfD are on the rise.
AfD seem to have dropped back significantly over the year0 -
Outstanding.CarlottaVance said:With Michael Crick stepping down, we have a new King Queen of the Doorstep
I'm sure @Foxy of this parish will approve of such a combative Vardy.0 -
> @rottenborough said:
> https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1124089939908550659
Remember when those sort of protest votes went to the LibDems ?
And also suggests that the splitters are going to struggle even more.0 -
And for me:
Election results for Victoria
Sefton Council Elections - Thursday 2nd May, 2019
Victoria - results
Election Candidate Party Votes %
Leslie Byrom C.B.E. The Labour Party 1675 48% Elected
Hannah Jane Gee Liberal Democrats 1003 29% Not elected
Andrew Roy Donegan The Green Party 427 12% Not elected
Paul Martyn Barber Conservative Party 351 10% Not elected
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Labour winning everything on Newcastle CC as usual. The uncontested Labour fiefdom continues.0
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> @DoubleD said:
> Labour-15. Tories +2. Love it
There's going to be big Tory losses once all those southern councils start reporting.0 -
a Green gain also in St Helens0
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> @Danny565 said:
> But Labour aren't seen as on the fence. Per YouGov, more than three times as many people see them as anti-Brexit than pro-. And the result is a big net loss of votes.
I don't think that follows. I guess I'd say "anti" in a forced choice but I think what they're doing is increasingly ludicrous triangulation, and coming from a remainian end I'm very much in a "I hope this party is destroyed and disappears from the face of the earth" kind of mood towards them.0 -
> @CarlottaVance said:
> With Michael Crick stepping down, we have a new King Queen of the Doorstep:
>
> https://twitter.com/EmmaVardyTV/status/1124082380602519558
Very brave reporting. Well done that woman.0 -
Lib Dems gaining a seat off Labour in Newcastle.0
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I take it back somewhat. Very remainy area though.Gallowgate said:Labour winning everything on Newcastle CC as usual. The uncontested Labour fiefdom continues.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124093715486846976?s=210 -
Lib Dems just took Ouseburn with a 28% swing.Gallowgate said:Labour winning everything on Newcastle CC as usual. The uncontested Labour fiefdom continues.
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Another Green gain from Labour in Wirral by a landslide0
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Labour leaking votes on both sides of the fence. Fancy that.AndreaParma_82 said:Another Green gain from Labour in Wirral by a landslide
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Barry Gardiner losing it on BBC. lol. Labour are rattled.0
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Labour are net -4 in South Tyneside.0
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The Shoredich of Newcastle!El_Capitano said:
Lib Dems just took Ouseburn with a 28% swing.Gallowgate said:Labour winning everything on Newcastle CC as usual. The uncontested Labour fiefdom continues.
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Haha! But fascinating. If Labour are losing the Shoreditches of this world...Gallowgate said:
The Shoredich of Newcastle!El_Capitano said:
Lib Dems just took Ouseburn with a 28% swing.Gallowgate said:Labour winning everything on Newcastle CC as usual. The uncontested Labour fiefdom continues.
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Tories would be ecstatic withthat I imagine.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Well, it wasn't completely a forced choice. People had the option in that poll of saying "Neither" or even "Don't Know" if they felt Labour were on the fence.edmundintokyo said:> @Danny565 said:
> But Labour aren't seen as on the fence. Per YouGov, more than three times as many people see them as anti-Brexit than pro-. And the result is a big net loss of votes.
I don't think that follows. I guess I'd say "anti" in a forced choice but I think what they're doing is increasingly ludicrous triangulation, and coming from a remainian end I'm very much in a "I hope this party is destroyed and disappears from the face of the earth" kind of mood towards them.
I agree with you that people are hacked off with how Jezza has handled it, but not because of "triangulation" as such: on the contrary, in my experience, people (Remain voters and Leave voters) are mostly hacked off at him being too dogmatically anti-Brexit, and point-blank refusing to vote through anything the Tories propose on Brexit. And people seemed especially pissed when he initially refused to talk to Theresa May when she first offered talks back in January. The idea that people, even Remain voters, are desperate for him to become even more inflexible, and use every waking moment to demand a "People's Vote", has always been a fantasy.0 -
Perhaps both main leaders will be under pressure, tomorrow.0
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Wirral - Rock Ferry
former Militant council leader from the 80s 1218
sitting deselected Cllr 1095
Greens 312
Con 1600 -
> @CarlottaVance said:
> https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1124089794701799425
69% for Con + Lab looks unlikely on these results.0 -
Labour lose Callerton and Throckley on Newcastle to IND0
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Con gain Pensby and Thingwall from Labour in Wirral0
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> @AndreaParma_82 said:
> Con gain Pensby and Thingwall from Labour in Wirral
These results are mad.0 -
The Greens are destroying Labour, perhaps they are taking votes from Labour Remainers and maybe also Labour Leavers who can't find alternative protest candidates0
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Green may turn out to be the story. Coming up on the rails unspotted.
At least they have a policy. Unashamed.0 -
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LabourList sounds mildly suicidal0
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More bad news for Labour on the horizon....
https://twitter.com/BBCLookNorth/status/11240874365927137290 -
> @rottenborough said:
> https://twitter.com/tomashoughton/status/1124092906845945856
Prenton was for many years a safe LibDem ward.0 -
Liverpool
Allerton & Hunts Cross
LAB: 2,318
LD: 1,709
GREEN: 337
CON: 213
this is good for Labour as they held it by 2% last year0 -
> @another_richard said:
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1124089794701799425
>
> 69% for Con + Lab looks unlikely on these results.
It's NEV, so treat with caution.0 -
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I know few care in a Bootle ward, but looking at my result:
Labour significantly down - drops below 50% which is the first time since 2014.
Turnout not really down on last year. 32% from 34%.
Conservatives go (slightly) backwards too. Lib Dems and Green are the biggest winners here.
Victoria was a fairly solid Lib Dem ward throughout the 1990s to 2010s.
So, here, I'd say neither Con nor Lab have anything to cheer about, especially not Labour.
Lib Dems and Greens both making progress.
Turnout is NOT significantly down.0 -
Yeah, maybe they’ll get 90% in Liverpool instead of 80%...AndreaParma_82 said:Liverpool
Allerton & Hunts Cross
LAB: 2,318
LD: 1,709
GREEN: 337
CON: 213
this is good for Labour as they held it by 2% last year0 -
Election Rebellion?dixiedean said:Green may turn out to be the story. Coming up on the rails unspotted.
At least they have a policy. Unashamed.
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Con gain Hulton from Labour in Bolton
Bolton council is quite unpopular. They were losing by-elections in huge swings in recent months0 -
> @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > @DoubleD said:
>
> > Labour-15. Tories +2. Love it
>
>
>
> I have a confession to make
>
>
>
> I posted yesterday I wanted the tories monstered
>
>
>
> I posted earlier that as I entered polling station I had no idea who I was going to vote for.
>
>
>
> Looking at the choices I went blue.
>
> Sunil means "blue"
I thought it meant train spotter :-)0 -
> @CarlottaVance said:
> Pike won't 'Go away and shut up':
>
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1124096591294607360
This will likely bring down Theresa, I reck.
It will be the perfect excuse to remove her.0 -
Labour lose control of Hartlepool.0
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> @kle4 said:
> https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1124089794701799425
>
>
>
> Tories would be ecstatic withthat I imagine.
Beyond ecstatic - for a governing party to be ahead two years after the GE would be remarkable.
Especially given the mess the government is in.0 -
> @El_Capitano said:
> Labour winning everything on Newcastle CC as usual. The uncontested Labour fiefdom continues.
>
> Lib Dems just took Ouseburn with a 28% swing.
I wasn't interested and was going to bed - now it looks like a late one :-)0 -
LABOUR LOSE HARTLEPOOL
I really did not expect that to be the first headline of the night.0 -
> @TheValiant said:
> I know few care in a Bootle ward, but looking at my result:
>
> Labour significantly down - drops below 50% which is the first time since 2014.
> Turnout not really down on last year. 32% from 34%.
> Conservatives go (slightly) backwards too. Lib Dems and Green are the biggest winners here.
>
> Victoria was a fairly solid Lib Dem ward throughout the 1990s to 2010s.
>
> So, here, I'd say neither Con nor Lab have anything to cheer about, especially not Labour.
> Lib Dems and Greens both making progress.
> Turnout is NOT significantly down.
I don't know how the Tories could go any lower in Bootle.0 -
Some trains are blue!Floater said:> @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > @DoubleD said:
>
> > Labour-15. Tories +2. Love it
>
>
>
> I have a confession to make
>
>
>
> I posted yesterday I wanted the tories monstered
>
>
>
> I posted earlier that as I entered polling station I had no idea who I was going to vote for.
>
>
>
> Looking at the choices I went blue.
>
> Sunil means "blue"
I thought it meant train spotter :-)
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> @Floater said:
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > Labour winning everything on Newcastle CC as usual. The uncontested Labour fiefdom continues.
> >
> > Lib Dems just took Ouseburn with a 28% swing.
>
> I wasn't interested and was going to bed - now it looks like a late one :-)
Very poorly equipped for a late night popcorn fest. Do I get up and make a buttered crumpet.....?0 -
> @ralphmalph said:
> Labour lose control of Hartlepool.
Labour are getting fisted tonight. I'm breaking out the vanilla Oreos.0 -
Radio 5 live have been banging on about climate change every single day in the crucial 8:30 odd commute to work spot. Wonder if it has helped the greens ?
Greta Thrunberg the big winner from tonight ?0 -
LDs gain Cambridge Market from Greens..0