politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets a no deal Brexit moves from a 37% chanc
Comments
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Yippee ki yay.......John_McLean said:
To be actually fair, Douglas Hurd was talking to the Provo high command in 1976, 7 years before Corbyn became an MP, and it didn't do Hurd's further career any harm. While Corbyn only met Gerry Adams in 1996, 6 months after Adams had been elected as an MP, and a year after Adams had met President Clinton.JosiasJessop said:
To be fair, Corbyn is someone who is happy to meet with terrorists who want to kill his fellow MPs, but will storm out of a meeting when one of his ex-MPs is present.Andy_Cooke said:So May has recognised that it is a Hung Parliament she's in, and that her own Party is not completely united on what it wants in this crucial matter, and possibly listening to others and reaching for compromise and consensus could be the way forward.
She realised that quicker than I expected, to be fair. Some might suggest she could have realised somewhat sooner...
I'm unsure it's fair to expect any reasonable compromise or consensus from Corbyn - at least, if he sees you as the enemy (which most of us would be).
As for storming out of the meeting including Umunna, Corbyn and May had been meeting under Privy Council rules for 20 minutes prior and having got precisely nowhere, there was no point in Corbyn staying. As a separate point, Umunna was not a leader of a political party, only at the head of a private company with interesting financial sources and banking. Somebody in no 10 was unsurprisingly, shit stirring.
As to who has the most blood on their hands, several million dead by Blair's involvement in Iraq, probably millions more by Cameron in Libya and Syria, while the continuing supply of UK weapons and personnel to Saudi for the destruction of the Yemen is not something that TMay's government should be proud of.
While Corbyn is criticised for raising justified concerns over the actions and decisions of the Israeli Government and their use of the IDF in attempting to control the Palestinians by violent and increasingly illegal and dangerous means.0 -
Mr. Jonathan, it's arguably the most stupid of all possible outcomes.0
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It will be interesting. Notably the Tories were riding ridiculously high when trying to do what May wanted, and having been defeated and forced to do other things she warned her party she did not want to do they have dropped and will likely drop further. I doubt they'll see it that way though.TGOHF said:Westminster VI polling should be interesting over the weekend.
Still think we are heading for Euro elections - what larks.0 -
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I think once we're out, support for the EU falls away. If it's a very soft Brexit (Something like Boles plan) then the majority of the population will just want to get on with their lives outside the political structures of the EU but very close economically.isam said:
We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.0 -
All outcomes are stupid. What do you expect from Brexit? Ask a stupid question, get a stupid answer.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, it's arguably the most stupid of all possible outcomes.
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I think so too. But I dont think we will get there. Leavers for remain and the European Remain Group as they should be known will have seen to that.Pulpstar said:
I think once we're out, support for the EU falls away. If it's a very soft Brexit (Something like Boles plan) then the majority of the population will just want to get on with their lives outside the political structures of the EU but very close economically.isam said:
We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.0 -
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.Casino_Royale said:
I just don’t see the point in a Brexit where we stay in both the SM + CU, pay significant contributions and free movement continues but get no votes or vetoes.isam said:
We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
What would be the point?
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.0 -
With the country split down the middle, there's clearly no way of satisfying everyone, and being out of the political structures but retaining a close trading relationship seems like the most sensible compromise to me.Pulpstar said:
I think once we're out, support for the EU falls away. If it's a very soft Brexit (Something like Boles plan) then the majority of the population will just want to get on with their lives outside the political structures of the EU but very close economically.isam said:
We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.0 -
But less disliked than any of the others. Which as a resolution for a foolish binary choice, isn't so bad.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, it's arguably the most stupid of all possible outcomes.
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Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.0
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..0
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Letwin again!TGOHF said:
That's exactly what the British people will be saying at the next general election when the Tories are out of the arses.0 -
No - that was scuttlebutt.OblitusSumMe said:
The report I read said that they were designed to set signals to red, rather than cause permanent damage. This would have caused lots of disruption, but no risk of injury.JosiasJessop said:It hasn't been widely reported, but as well as the pro-Bexit nutter who stopped Eurostar traffic at the weekend, two improvised explosive devices left on tracks in Nottinghamshire and ?Cambridgeshire? are believed to have been left as part of a pro-Brexit campaign.
Are you sure about them being explosive?
I'd disagree that something 'designed' to turn signals to red not having any risk of injury - least of all amongst themselves. It assumes a certain amount of competence amongst the perpetrators.0 -
I think enthusiastic support for the EU well stay firm among that demographic also likely to be in favour of a Republic and STV for the Commons.Pulpstar said:
I think once we're out, support for the EU falls away. If it's a very soft Brexit (Something like Boles plan) then the majority of the population will just want to get on with their lives outside the political structures of the EU but very close economically.isam said:
We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
What it might be is a more motivating objective than those other positions.0 -
In Autumn 2018 I listened to an ex cabinet minister who said Theresa May would never agree to No Deal and everything that has happened since confirms that view. It seem surprising the betting moved as far as 37%.0
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Yes. A comparison can be made I think with Arsenal supporters and Arsene Wenger’s departure... I’d say it was close to 50/50, and I was a Remainer who hated the antics of the extreme leavers, wept when the decision went against us, wanted a continuity Wenger man to take over, was suspicious of Emery, the full shebang of Remain emotions.Pulpstar said:
I think once we're out, support for the EU falls away. If it's a very soft Brexit (Something like Boles plan) then the majority of the population will just want to get on with their lives outside the political structures of the EU but very close economically.isam said:
We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
A year on and I’m perfectly happy with how things are0 -
E
The order of events should have been establishment out first , EU second. But we might get there in the end.isam said:
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.Casino_Royale said:
I just don’t see the point in a Brexit where we stay in both the SM + CU, pay significant contributions and free movement continues but get no votes or vetoes.isam said:
We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
What would be the point?
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.0 -
Jezza's pitch to May:
"One solution - Revolution!"
Laters, comrades.0 -
Except Theresa May is no longer in control of events.....Norm said:In Autumn 2018 I listened to an ex cabinet minister who said Theresa May would never agree to No Deal and everything that has happened since confirms that view. It seem surprising the betting moved as far as 37%.
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Brexit secretary getting a kicking on R4. Defending the PM isn’t much fun.0
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Hopefully their behaviour since June 2016 will see to that. I can’t think that public trust in politicians has ever been lower, there must be an opportunity for a new party to exploit.TGOHF said:E
The order of events should have been establishment out first , EU second. But we might get there in the end.isam said:
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.Casino_Royale said:
I just don’t see the point in a Brexit where we stay in both the SM + CU, pay significant contributions and free movement continues but get no votes or vetoes.isam said:
We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
.
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Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
What would be the point?
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.
And I don’t mean those same as it ever was new Radical Establishment rascals TIG/Chuka!! 😂0 -
I don’t think Corbyn would choose ending FoM as a hill to die on. Some cosmetic changes, no more.OblitusSumMe said:
I think Corbyn's plan for Brexit still sees an end to Freedom of Movement (as well as being outside the CAP, CFP, etc). Losing Freedom of Movement feels like a big loss to me and is far from being BINO.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
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But it is support in the political parties that matters. If we have a close relationship then rejoining is easy practically and no problem politically for Labour. I don't think it would be much problem for the Tories either if all the Brexiters have torn their membership cards up and found somewhere else to go.Pulpstar said:
I think once we're out, support for the EU falls away. If it's a very soft Brexit (Something like Boles plan) then the majority of the population will just want to get on with their lives outside the political structures of the EU but very close economically.isam said:
We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
I think we are back in in 10 years.0 -
From that misdirection and whataboutism, I'm unsure you'd know how to be 'fair' if you tried...John_McLean said:
To be actually fair, Douglas Hurd was talking to the Provo high command in 1976, 7 years before Corbyn became an MP, and it didn't do Hurd's further career any harm. While Corbyn only met Gerry Adams in 1996, 6 months after Adams had been elected as an MP, and a year after Adams had met President Clinton.JosiasJessop said:
To be fair, Corbyn is someone who is happy to meet with terrorists who want to kill his fellow MPs, but will storm out of a meeting when one of his ex-MPs is present.Andy_Cooke said:So May has recognised that it is a Hung Parliament she's in, and that her own Party is not completely united on what it wants in this crucial matter, and possibly listening to others and reaching for compromise and consensus could be the way forward.
She realised that quicker than I expected, to be fair. Some might suggest she could have realised somewhat sooner...
I'm unsure it's fair to expect any reasonable compromise or consensus from Corbyn - at least, if he sees you as the enemy (which most of us would be).
As for storming out of the meeting including Umunna, Corbyn and May had been meeting under Privy Council rules for 20 minutes prior and having got precisely nowhere, there was no point in Corbyn staying. As a separate point, Umunna was not a leader of a political party, only at the head of a private company with interesting financial sources and banking. Somebody in no 10 was unsurprisingly, shit stirring.
As to who has the most blood on their hands, several million dead by Blair's involvement in Iraq, probably millions more by Cameron in Libya and Syria, while the continuing supply of UK weapons and personnel to Saudi for the destruction of the Yemen is not something that TMay's government should be proud of.
While Corbyn is criticised for raising justified concerns over the actions and decisions of the Israeli Government and their use of the IDF in attempting to control the Palestinians by violent and increasingly illegal and dangerous means.0 -
Funnily enough, the stand-off between Emery and Ozil felt a bit like Brexit. It's a shame we don't have football opinion polling but I think there's a bit of an inverse correlation between wanting Wenger out and thinking the sun shines out of Ozil's backside. So when Emery wasn't playing him, there was a lot of cognitive dissonance, which I found very amusing.isam said:
Yes. A comparison can be made I think with Arsenal supporters and Arsene Wenger’s departure... I’d say it was close to 50/50, and I was a Remainer who hated the antics of the extreme leavers, wept when the decision went against us, wanted a continuity Wenger man to take over, was suspicious of Emery, the full shebang of Remain emotions.Pulpstar said:I think once we're out, support for the EU falls away. If it's a very soft Brexit (Something like Boles plan) then the majority of the population will just want to get on with their lives outside the political structures of the EU but very close economically.
A year on and I’m perfectly happy with how things are0 -
Thank God we have been released from the grip of the Establishment by a ragged-trousered army of Old Etonians and their billionaire hedge fund paymasters.isam said:
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.0 -
No Deal needs to be a deliberate decision from here. It’s clear the EU does not want to be blamed for one, so the UK government and Parliament now have to agree to allow one to happen.IanB2 said:
Given the impossibility of reconciling the political objectives of May and Corbyn, I am not sure receding is right. I fear it may actually depend on Letwin-Cooper.SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
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That is true to an extent but neither the EU or Labour want No Deal so only the small chance of an accidental one need be factored into the betting odds. Even then I wouldn't entirely trust her not to revoke at the last minute in extremis.MarqueeMark said:
Except Theresa May is no longer in control of events.....Norm said:In Autumn 2018 I listened to an ex cabinet minister who said Theresa May would never agree to No Deal and everything that has happened since confirms that view. It seem surprising the betting moved as far as 37%.
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Barclay now making personal attacks on Corbyn on R4. What a way to start a negotiation!0
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If the May-Corbyn talks break down, as is surely most likely given their respective characters and constraints, the question is what happens next. Unless we have Letwin-Cooper as protection.SouthamObserver said:
No Deal needs to be a deliberate decision from here. It’s clear the EU does not want to be blamed for one, so the UK government and Parliament now have to agree to allow one to happen.IanB2 said:
Given the impossibility of reconciling the political objectives of May and Corbyn, I am not sure receding is right. I fear it may actually depend on Letwin-Cooper.SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.0 -
I’d say that the most likely No Deal scenario is May asking for a short extension, the EU offering a longer one and May saying No. I cannot see it just happening anymore.Norm said:
That is true to an extent but neither the EU or Labour want No Deal so only the small chance of an accidental one need be factored into the betting odds. Even then I wouldn't entirely trust her not to revoke at the last minute in extremis.MarqueeMark said:
Except Theresa May is no longer in control of events.....Norm said:In Autumn 2018 I listened to an ex cabinet minister who said Theresa May would never agree to No Deal and everything that has happened since confirms that view. It seem surprising the betting moved as far as 37%.
0 -
Something popular with many of his potential supporters and that would split the Tories would certainly be a clever choice. Corbyn should simply insist the House has a free vote on the matter before the WA with his tweaks is passed. A free vote protects Labour's divisions whilst still presenting the government with a big problem.matt said:
Referendum surely? In line with labour Party policy and would be a confirmatory action.TOPPING said:Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.
0 -
Comment superfluous:
https://twitter.com/MarcusFysh/status/1113330771471884290
There were lists circulating the other day of MP combinations for new compromises. Marcus Fysh should be putting one together with Steve Brine.0 -
You want to own the establishment by teaching the government that if they ignore the likes of Rupert Murdoch, Mervyn King or Nigel Lawson, there’ll be trouble?isam said:
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.0 -
Mr. B2, it's idiotic.
May's legitimising Corbyn as a potential PM. You can't do that whilst simultaneously attacking him. (Well, not if you want to maintain even a semblance of intelligence).0 -
On a narrow 52% to 48% Leave win and with the 2017 general election producing a hung parliament rather than a landslide for the Tories on a hard Brexit platform a softer Brexit was probably inevitable and the ERG voting against May's original Deal has made it even softer than it could have been.
That said a clear majority of Leave voters in the polls and a slightly smaller majority of Tory voters now back Leave with No Deal as their preferred Brexit outcome increasing the chances of a hard Brexiteer like Boris or Raab succeeding May as Tory leader0 -
Is she legitimising Corbyn, or delegitimising Brexit?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B2, it's idiotic.
May's legitimising Corbyn as a potential PM. You can't do that whilst simultaneously attacking him. (Well, not if you want to maintain even a semblance of intelligence).0 -
If necessary Corbyn can be ignored, the most favoured option of a majority of the Commons is clearly for a Deal plus Customs Union and that clearly applies to most Labour MPs too given only 10 Labour MPs opposed Clarke's amendment, the key thing is to get the Withdrawal Agreement passed by whatever means possibleTOPPING said:Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.
0 -
For all the people who think this is a terrible idea the pivot to a second referendum with May's deal there vs remain is still a viable alternative.AlastairMeeks said:Comment superfluous:
https://twitter.com/MarcusFysh/status/1113330771471884290
There were lists circulating the other day of MP combinations for new compromises. Marcus Fysh should be putting one together with Steve Brine.
Edit: That is if enough Tory MPs decide it is that terrible.0 -
Mr. HYUFD, I think the implications for the Conservative leadership depend how we leave. If we do end up with a departure in name only, then I agree with you that a more hardline contender is likely to win.
If we end up with an actual departure, then only if an individual overtly wants to change course will such a position actually matter, and instead the contest will be more orthodox, with a focus on personal charisma and political potential rather than the spotlight being on their EU position (I imagine most prospective leaders would be glad if they could just say "The UK's position regarding the EU is settled, let's look to the future").0 -
All too frequently, 'the establishment' is taken to be the influential people at or near power who I disagree with and do not like (and who may just have two heads) - whilst the influential people at or near power who I agree with are good, solid people.williamglenn said:
You want to own the establishment by teaching the government that if they ignore the likes of Rupert Murdoch, Mervyn King or Nigel Lawson, there’ll be trouble?isam said:
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.
0 -
Leaving aside the fact that for the last fifty-odd years the EU and it's predecessors have tried to increase representation, not decrease it, there are logistic problems in "getting a law passed". If it's not treaty-based then it had to go thru the stages of getting the Commission, the Council and European Parliament to agree the change, right in the middle of an election. If it's treaty-based then it takes several months to change the treaties, and it's usually years. When you add in the fact that nobody has actually asked them to do this yet, you see the problem.kamski said:Genuine question : why are the euro elections seem as such an insurmountable issue? If a longer extension is needed and UK doesn't take part in euro elections in May the EU just passes a rule saying eg :
Under the circumstances UK meps sit for a few weeks longer
Problem solved?
[Tl:Dr the EU doesn't turn on a dime]0 -
JRM getting rattled and trying to bully the female R4 presenter is not a good look for him.
He is an absolute and utter ****.0 -
I understand if talks breakdown, TM will table a series of indicative votes on monday and the government will act on the one that comes throughIanB2 said:
If the May-Corbyn talks break down, as is surely most likely given their respective characters and constraints, the question is what happens next. Unless we have Letwin-Cooper as protection.SouthamObserver said:
No Deal needs to be a deliberate decision from here. It’s clear the EU does not want to be blamed for one, so the UK government and Parliament now have to agree to allow one to happen.IanB2 said:
Given the impossibility of reconciling the political objectives of May and Corbyn, I am not sure receding is right. I fear it may actually depend on Letwin-Cooper.SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.0 -
JRM losing it stroppily on R4! After being asked about his A4D RT.0
-
Despite what GIN thinks I expect the polling will not see that big a change, Deltapoll at the weekend had a narrow majority of both Tory and Labour voters backing the Deal plus Customs Union, however it was neither' s first choice, Tory voters first choice was Leave with No Deal and Labour voters first choice was revoke Article 50 or EUref2. Do not forget Deal plus Customs Union would be a compromise for Remainers as well as Leavers.TGOHF said:Westminster VI polling should be interesting over the weekend.
Still think we are heading for Euro elections - what larks.
I expect the biggest gainers at the weekend will be Farage's new Brexit Party or UKIP if Leavers are going to protest anywhere0 -
Politicians on the whole are part of the elite establishment, it’s not worth trying to play that card really. It’s the voters that disagreed with the establishment status quo.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Thank God we have been released from the grip of the Establishment by a ragged-trousered army of Old Etonians and their billionaire hedge fund paymasters.isam said:
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.0 -
Amidst the current crisis there must be no plaice for levity.AlastairMeeks said:Comment superfluous:
https://twitter.com/MarcusFysh/status/1113330771471884290
There were lists circulating the other day of MP combinations for new compromises. Marcus Fysh should be putting one together with Steve Brine.0 -
He wouldn’t because his view is the more immigration the better.SouthamObserver said:
I don’t think Corbyn would choose ending FoM as a hill to die on. Some cosmetic changes, no more.OblitusSumMe said:
I think Corbyn's plan for Brexit still sees an end to Freedom of Movement (as well as being outside the CAP, CFP, etc). Losing Freedom of Movement feels like a big loss to me and is far from being BINO.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.0 -
Can anybody think of a reason why we shouldn't, as a country, start political measures against Brunei wrt their rather medieval new laws?
There are times when 'condemnation' is not enough. Before anyone starts, I'm not talking about war, but something more than just tut-tutting.0 -
Tell that to the ERG who've happily voted with him on at least 3 occasionsMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B2, it's idiotic.
May's legitimising Corbyn as a potential PM. You can't do that whilst simultaneously attacking him. (Well, not if you want to maintain even a semblance of intelligence).0 -
Eminently sensible. Hope that's true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I understand if talks breakdown, TM will table a series of indicative votes on monday and the government will act on the one that comes throughIanB2 said:
If the May-Corbyn talks break down, as is surely most likely given their respective characters and constraints, the question is what happens next. Unless we have Letwin-Cooper as protection.SouthamObserver said:
No Deal needs to be a deliberate decision from here. It’s clear the EU does not want to be blamed for one, so the UK government and Parliament now have to agree to allow one to happen.IanB2 said:
Given the impossibility of reconciling the political objectives of May and Corbyn, I am not sure receding is right. I fear it may actually depend on Letwin-Cooper.SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.0 -
So May has finally made her choice and it is not to the advantage of the ERG position. Who would have thought that that could happen? Pretty much anybody with average intelligence I would say which of course leaves a lot of ERG members in the dark. They will probably still get a Brexit although that remains less than guaranteed but it will be a much softer Brexit than they could have had by supporting May's deal from the outset.
The priority remains getting this sorted. The economy has surprised even me with its robust response to our imminent departure but investment and capital spending are undoubtedly being affected by people not knowing what the rules might be in 8 days time. The irresponsibility of our political class has consequences, as the ERG are now finding out.0 -
He has come out as against exploitation of immigrant workers and the undercutting of the British low paid, which are the two major problems with FOM.Casino_Royale said:
He wouldn’t because his view is the more immigration the better.SouthamObserver said:
I don’t think Corbyn would choose ending FoM as a hill to die on. Some cosmetic changes, no more.OblitusSumMe said:
I think Corbyn's plan for Brexit still sees an end to Freedom of Movement (as well as being outside the CAP, CFP, etc). Losing Freedom of Movement feels like a big loss to me and is far from being BINO.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
I’d guess he wants to make it harder for big corporates to profit from it anymore too, which is it’s main driver.0 -
The smart (Labour) play for Corbyn is to support her deal conditional on a referendum. Not sure he will do that though...Casino_Royale said:
He wouldn’t because his view is the more immigration the better.SouthamObserver said:
I don’t think Corbyn would choose ending FoM as a hill to die on. Some cosmetic changes, no more.OblitusSumMe said:
I think Corbyn's plan for Brexit still sees an end to Freedom of Movement (as well as being outside the CAP, CFP, etc). Losing Freedom of Movement feels like a big loss to me and is far from being BINO.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.0 -
She's asked him into the tent. He has a what, 40-55% say in what happens next. She has supreme confidence in the ability of the Conservatives to win a GE so why or how on earth could she refuse?HYUFD said:
If necessary Corbyn can be ignored, the most favoured option of a majority of the Commons is clearly for a Deal plus Customs Union and that clearly applies to most Labour MPs too given only 10 Labour MPs opposed Clarke's amendment, the key thing is to get the Withdrawal Agreement passed by whatever means possibleTOPPING said:Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.
0 -
Mr. Felix, no wonder things are so salty.0
-
Yep.TOPPING said:JRM getting rattled and trying to bully the female R4 presenter is not a good look for him.
He is an absolute and utter ****.
When someone tries to draw some great distinction between the AfD and Le Pen's FN, you can assume that person didn't have much of a moral compass in the first place.0 -
Current Betfair implied probabilities on leaving the EU:
This year: 51%
Next year: 16%
Some time: 7%
Never: 25%
(Bit of licence used in describing the last two.)0 -
OGH is arguing that 52 - 48 is no mandate for hard change. I look forward to that argument if the Scots vote for independence by the same margin. The referendum was about hard change, it wasn't about the CU or about whether to accept Cameron's so-called better deal.
The risk is now that if Parliament decide the result of referendums, what is the point of them? Given that most people have little or no choice about their MP; a 25k majority or a choice between two parties with both being Leavers or Remainers, what choice is that?
I'm sure the more fanatical Remainers don't care as long as they get their own way. They'll hope BINO will be enough and the voters settle down and go along with what their 'betters' decide. More in relief that the MPs squabbling has finished.
I'm far from convinced that will happen,.0 -
Still better than May who is totally uselessJosiasJessop said:
To be fair, Corbyn is someone who is happy to meet with terrorists who want to kill his fellow MPs, but will storm out of a meeting when one of his ex-MPs is present.Andy_Cooke said:So May has recognised that it is a Hung Parliament she's in, and that her own Party is not completely united on what it wants in this crucial matter, and possibly listening to others and reaching for compromise and consensus could be the way forward.
She realised that quicker than I expected, to be fair. Some might suggest she could have realised somewhat sooner...
I'm unsure it's fair to expect any reasonable compromise or consensus from Corbyn - at least, if he sees you as the enemy (which most of us would be).0 -
Suppose JRM et al won and implemented whatever flavour of Brexit their tiny, warped, idiotic, moronic brains wanted. Why would that not then be the establishment status quo?isam said:
Politicians on the whole are part of the elite establishment, it’s not worth trying to play that card really. It’s the voters that disagreed with the establishment status quo.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Thank God we have been released from the grip of the Establishment by a ragged-trousered army of Old Etonians and their billionaire hedge fund paymasters.isam said:
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.0 -
Tories conveniently ignore their partnerships with dictators and despots around the world, they are far more dangerous than Corbyn for certain.John_McLean said:
To be actually fair, Douglas Hurd was talking to the Provo high command in 1976, 7 years before Corbyn became an MP, and it didn't do Hurd's further career any harm. While Corbyn only met Gerry Adams in 1996, 6 months after Adams had been elected as an MP, and a year after Adams had met President Clinton.JosiasJessop said:
To be fair, Corbyn is someone who is happy to meet with terrorists who want to kill his fellow MPs, but will storm out of a meeting when one of his ex-MPs is present.Andy_Cooke said:So May has recognised that it is a Hung Parliament she's in, and that her own Party is not completely united on what it wants in this crucial matter, and possibly listening to others and reaching for compromise and consensus could be the way forward.
She realised that quicker than I expected, to be fair. Some might suggest she could have realised somewhat sooner...
I'm unsure it's fair to expect any reasonable compromise or consensus from Corbyn - at least, if he sees you as the enemy (which most of us would be).
As for storming out of the meeting including Umunna, Corbyn and May had been meeting under Privy Council rules for 20 minutes prior and having got precisely nowhere, there was no point in Corbyn staying. As a separate point, Umunna was not a leader of a political party, only at the head of a private company with interesting financial sources and banking. Somebody in no 10 was unsurprisingly, shit stirring.
As to who has the most blood on their hands, several million dead by Blair's involvement in Iraq, probably millions more by Cameron in Libya and Syria, while the continuing supply of UK weapons and personnel to Saudi for the destruction of the Yemen is not something that TMay's government should be proud of.
While Corbyn is criticised for raising justified concerns over the actions and decisions of the Israeli Government and their use of the IDF in attempting to control the Palestinians by violent and increasingly illegal and dangerous means.0 -
Lady Diana Mayo and Sheikh Ahmed Ben Hassan?TOPPING said:
She's asked him into the tent. ...HYUFD said:
If necessary Corbyn can be ignored, the most favoured option of a majority of the Commons is clearly for a Deal plus Customs Union and that clearly applies to most Labour MPs too given only 10 Labour MPs opposed Clarke's amendment, the key thing is to get the Withdrawal Agreement passed by whatever means possibleTOPPING said:Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.
0 -
Of course May will not be leading the Tories at the next general election, her legacy is solely bound up now in passing a Brexit DealTOPPING said:
She's asked him into the tent. He has a what, 40-55% say in what happens next. She has supreme confidence in the ability of the Conservatives to win a GE so why or how on earth could she refuse?HYUFD said:
If necessary Corbyn can be ignored, the most favoured option of a majority of the Commons is clearly for a Deal plus Customs Union and that clearly applies to most Labour MPs too given only 10 Labour MPs opposed Clarke's amendment, the key thing is to get the Withdrawal Agreement passed by whatever means possibleTOPPING said:Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.
0 -
It took me a few seconds to figure out which one is supposed to be the good ones... I guess AFD considering the context but aren't FN if anything a bit less dodgy then AFD?Theuniondivvie said:
Yep.TOPPING said:JRM getting rattled and trying to bully the female R4 presenter is not a good look for him.
He is an absolute and utter ****.
When someone tries to draw some great distinction between the AfD and Le Pen's FN, you can assume that person didn't have much of a moral compass in the first place.
A very low bar which they could scrape over, although that is based on only a little knowledge.0 -
I think from this point after May's original Deal was rejected again a more BINO Brexit Deal is most likely thus boosting the chances of hard Brexiteers succeeding May as Tory leaderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, I think the implications for the Conservative leadership depend how we leave. If we do end up with a departure in name only, then I agree with you that a more hardline contender is likely to win.
If we end up with an actual departure, then only if an individual overtly wants to change course will such a position actually matter, and instead the contest will be more orthodox, with a focus on personal charisma and political potential rather than the spotlight being on their EU position (I imagine most prospective leaders would be glad if they could just say "The UK's position regarding the EU is settled, let's look to the future").0 -
How much change you can get away with depends on whether it can continue to command support, not whether you can claim it's consistent with some distant mandate.CD13 said:OGH is arguing that 52 - 48 is no mandate for hard change. I look forward to that argument if the Scots vote for independence by the same margin. The referendum was about hard change, it wasn't about the CU or about whether to accept Cameron's so-called better deal.
The risk is now that if Parliament decide the result of referendums, what is the point of them? Given that most people have little or no choice about their MP; a 25k majority or a choice between two parties with both being Leavers or Remainers, what choice is that?
I'm sure the more fanatical Remainers don't care as long as they get their own way. They'll hope BINO will be enough and the voters settle down and go along with what their 'betters' decide. More in relief that the MPs squabbling has finished.
I'm far from convinced that will happen,.0 -
While we are ruled by Remainers we have to take what we can get. My example the other day was if you want your house band to perform Anarchy in the UK, but your house band is Coldplay, don’t expect it to sound like the Sex Pistols.CD13 said:OGH is arguing that 52 - 48 is no mandate for hard change. I look forward to that argument if the Scots vote for independence by the same margin. The referendum was about hard change, it wasn't about the CU or about whether to accept Cameron's so-called better deal.
The risk is now that if Parliament decide the result of referendums, what is the point of them? Given that most people have little or no choice about their MP; a 25k majority or a choice between two parties with both being Leavers or Remainers, what choice is that?
I'm sure the more fanatical Remainers don't care as long as they get their own way. They'll hope BINO will be enough and the voters settle down and go along with what their 'betters' decide. More in relief that the MPs squabbling has finished.
I'm far from convinced that will happen,.0 -
FoM is two-way, of course. There is going to be more immigration whoever is in charge, but I agree that Corbyn will favour a very relaxed regime.Casino_Royale said:
He wouldn’t because his view is the more immigration the better.SouthamObserver said:
I don’t think Corbyn would choose ending FoM as a hill to die on. Some cosmetic changes, no more.OblitusSumMe said:
I think Corbyn's plan for Brexit still sees an end to Freedom of Movement (as well as being outside the CAP, CFP, etc). Losing Freedom of Movement feels like a big loss to me and is far from being BINO.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
0 -
I should have said I've no problems with a confirmatory referendum. Do you want the agreed deal? Yes or no? But where does a remain option come from?0
-
That is the kind of pivot that will see you do well as a politicianHYUFD said:
Of course May will not be leading the Tories at the next general election, her legacy is solely bound up now in passing a Brexit DealTOPPING said:
She's asked him into the tent. He has a what, 40-55% say in what happens next. She has supreme confidence in the ability of the Conservatives to win a GE so why or how on earth could she refuse?HYUFD said:
If necessary Corbyn can be ignored, the most favoured option of a majority of the Commons is clearly for a Deal plus Customs Union and that clearly applies to most Labour MPs too given only 10 Labour MPs opposed Clarke's amendment, the key thing is to get the Withdrawal Agreement passed by whatever means possibleTOPPING said:Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.
Who cares who leads the Tories at the next election. Jezza is holding talks with Tezza and for him it is cake and eat it time.0 -
Expensive symbolism just to suit some xenophobic losers.isam said:
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.Casino_Royale said:
I just don’t see the point in a Brexit where we stay in both the SM + CU, pay significant contributions and free movement continues but get no votes or vetoes.isam said:
We have to face facts... our side won despite most of politicians whose job it was to implement the result wanting us to lose. As can be seen from their filibustering shenanigans over the last 34 months, they & their supporters would have no qualms about ignoring the referendum result altogether, so any kind of Leave should be celebrated. Four years ago, when we were constantly told the public weren’t interested and people were betting on how much Remain would win by, we would have taken this.Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure I could continue to support such a Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
What would be the point?
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.0 -
Excellent post. I've avoided this forum for quite a while as the remainer bias was too apparent. I've pretty much lost faith in all politicians now and will be in a real quandary whether or not I even vote next time. CD13 makes a very strong point. Why bother when nothing you do changes anything? Even the manifestos at the last election have been shown to be meaningless as the so called representatives of the people just do what they want.CD13 said:OGH is arguing that 52 - 48 is no mandate for hard change. I look forward to that argument if the Scots vote for independence by the same margin. The referendum was about hard change, it wasn't about the CU or about whether to accept Cameron's so-called better deal.
The risk is now that if Parliament decide the result of referendums, what is the point of them? Given that most people have little or no choice about their MP; a 25k majority or a choice between two parties with both being Leavers or Remainers, what choice is that?
I'm sure the more fanatical Remainers don't care as long as they get their own way. They'll hope BINO will be enough and the voters settle down and go along with what their 'betters' decide. More in relief that the MPs squabbling has finished.
I'm far from convinced that will happen,.
With the typical British phlegm, I doubt if there will be any mass protests or civil unrest however.0 -
That would read so much better without the gratuitous insults.TOPPING said:
Suppose JRM et al won and implemented whatever flavour of Brexit their tiny, warped, idiotic, moronic brains wanted. Why would that not then be the establishment status quo?isam said:
Politicians on the whole are part of the elite establishment, it’s not worth trying to play that card really. It’s the voters that disagreed with the establishment status quo.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Thank God we have been released from the grip of the Establishment by a ragged-trousered army of Old Etonians and their billionaire hedge fund paymasters.isam said:
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.
Perhaps it would be, so what? Although in the context of the last 20 years or so of British political thought, I don’t think the ERG are the establishment. That would be Cameroon/Blairites0 -
To uphold the spirit of the last referendum result, the question should be May's deal or no deal. I could also support a referendum on thos terms.CD13 said:I should have said I've no problems with a confirmatory referendum. Do you want the agreed deal? Yes or no? But where does a remain option come from?
0 -
Was that you on GMS yesterday David, Was a David L spokesman for Advocates on.DavidL said:So May has finally made her choice and it is not to the advantage of the ERG position. Who would have thought that that could happen? Pretty much anybody with average intelligence I would say which of course leaves a lot of ERG members in the dark. They will probably still get a Brexit although that remains less than guaranteed but it will be a much softer Brexit than they could have had by supporting May's deal from the outset.
The priority remains getting this sorted. The economy has surprised even me with its robust response to our imminent departure but investment and capital spending are undoubtedly being affected by people not knowing what the rules might be in 8 days time. The irresponsibility of our political class has consequences, as the ERG are now finding out.0 -
You are deliberately missing the point. It is quite possible for Scotland to be independent and be within a Single Market and Customs Union with rUK. It's even possible to keep the same currency. If INDY2 just asked yes or no, such a position is entirely compatible with yes.CD13 said:OGH is arguing that 52 - 48 is no mandate for hard change. I look forward to that argument if the Scots vote for independence by the same margin. The referendum was about hard change, it wasn't about the CU or about whether to accept Cameron's so-called better deal.
The risk is now that if Parliament decide the result of referendums, what is the point of them? Given that most people have little or no choice about their MP; a 25k majority or a choice between two parties with both being Leavers or Remainers, what choice is that?
I'm sure the more fanatical Remainers don't care as long as they get their own way. They'll hope BINO will be enough and the voters settle down and go along with what their 'betters' decide. More in relief that the MPs squabbling has finished.
I'm far from convinced that will happen,.0 -
Corbyn’s solution is stronger unions. It’s not a bad one if ending workplace exploitation is your priority.isam said:
He has come out as against exploitation of immigrant workers and the undercutting of the British low paid, which are the two major problems with FOM.Casino_Royale said:
He wouldn’t because his view is the more immigration the better.SouthamObserver said:
I don’t think Corbyn would choose ending FoM as a hill to die on. Some cosmetic changes, no more.OblitusSumMe said:
I think Corbyn's plan for Brexit still sees an end to Freedom of Movement (as well as being outside the CAP, CFP, etc). Losing Freedom of Movement feels like a big loss to me and is far from being BINO.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
I’d guess he wants to make it harder for big corporates to profit from it anymore too, which is it’s main driver.
0 -
Mr Glenn,
In the LDs and many Remainer's mind, 'distant ' means the day before. The mindset of a small child.
Having a Remain option on any further referendum means ignoring a previous result you didn't agree with. Why would anyone vote again when MPS decide anyway?0 -
I wouldn't want you to be in any doubt as to my view of those people.isam said:
That would read so much better without the gratuitous insults.TOPPING said:
Suppose JRM et al won and implemented whatever flavour of Brexit their tiny, warped, idiotic, moronic brains wanted. Why would that not then be the establishment status quo?isam said:
Politicians on the whole are part of the elite establishment, it’s not worth trying to play that card really. It’s the voters that disagreed with the establishment status quo.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Thank God we have been released from the grip of the Establishment by a ragged-trousered army of Old Etonians and their billionaire hedge fund paymasters.isam said:
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.
Perhaps it would be, so what? Although in the context of the last 20 years or so of British political thought, I don’t think the ERG are the establishment. That would be Cameroon/Blairites
Meanwhile "I don't think the ERG are the establishment" must surely go down as a hall of famer PB quote.0 -
The Cameroon/Blairites are the ones responsible for progressive estrangement from the rest of the EU over the last 20 years or so, under the influence of establishment figures like Rupert Murdoch.isam said:
That would read so much better without the gratuitous insults.TOPPING said:
Suppose JRM et al won and implemented whatever flavour of Brexit their tiny, warped, idiotic, moronic brains wanted. Why would that not then be the establishment status quo?isam said:
Politicians on the whole are part of the elite establishment, it’s not worth trying to play that card really. It’s the voters that disagreed with the establishment status quo.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Thank God we have been released from the grip of the Establishment by a ragged-trousered army of Old Etonians and their billionaire hedge fund paymasters.isam said:
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.
Perhaps it would be, so what? Although in the context of the last 20 years or so of British political thought, I don’t think the ERG are the establishment. That would be Cameroon/Blairites0 -
Good morning folks.
Reflecting on the move by TM yesterday I would compare it to Kinnock's put down of militant. TM has directly faced down ERG who were just as disruptive as militant and has moved the conservatives towards a one nation party
The irony in this is the crass behaviour of ERG themselves in overplaying their hand in sending in the letters to vonc TM far too early, then TM wins a vonc in her government, and in the last week promising to stand down on brexit providing her space to act as she has
I understand TM has given the talks with Corbyn until friday and in the absence of agreement TM will put forward indicative votes on monday to arrive at the will of the HOC, which she has said she will implement
Everything from Norway to customs union and referendums are very much still in play0 -
From the fact that it is currently by far the most popular option in the opinion polls at present and may well command a majority even before any run-off took place.CD13 said:I should have said I've no problems with a confirmatory referendum. Do you want the agreed deal? Yes or no? But where does a remain option come from?
0 -
"Why would anyone vote again when MPS decide anyway?"CD13 said:Mr Glenn,
In the LDs and many Remainer's mind, 'distant ' means the day before. The mindset of a small child.
Having a Remain option on any further referendum means ignoring a previous result you didn't agree with. Why would anyone vote again when MPS decide anyway?
Remind me how MPs get their jobs.0 -
I’ve always found it strange that a party founded on strong unions was so relaxed about FOMs effect on the lowest paid. I was brainwashed into being a Labour supporter as a child, and it seemed to be in conflict with what I saw as Labour values. If you have the time I’d strongly recommend listening to this podcast.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s solution is stronger unions. It’s not a bad one if ending workplace exploitation is your priority.isam said:
He has come out as against exploitation of immigrant workers and the undercutting of the British low paid, which are the two major problems with FOM.Casino_Royale said:
He wouldn’t because his view is the more immigration the better.SouthamObserver said:
I don’t think Corbyn would choose ending FoM as a hill to die on. Some cosmetic changes, no more.OblitusSumMe said:
I think Corbyn's plan for Brexit still sees an end to Freedom of Movement (as well as being outside the CAP, CFP, etc). Losing Freedom of Movement feels like a big loss to me and is far from being BINO.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
I’d guess he wants to make it harder for big corporates to profit from it anymore too, which is it’s main driver.
https://m.soundcloud.com/unherd-confessions/maurice-glasman-rec0 -
It wasn’t a direct face down. She didn’t mention them.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning folks.
Reflecting on the move by TM yesterday I would compare it to Kinnock's put down of militant. TM has directly faced down ERG who were just as disruptive as militant and has moved the conservatives towards a one nation party
The irony in this is the crass behaviour of ERG themselves in overplaying their hand in sending in the letters to vonc TM far too early, then TM wins a vonc in her government, and in the last week promising to stand down on brexit providing her space to act as she has
I understand TM has given the talks with Corbyn until friday and in the absence of agreement TM will put forward indicative votes on monday to arrive at the will of the HOC, which she has said she will implement
Everything from Norway to customs union and referendums are very much still in play0 -
-
A quick question to more knowledgeable heads.
We would have had trade deals before we joined the EEC - treaty with Portugal and the CTA come to mind. Were these deals repealed when we joined or are they just superceded by the EU treaties? If we leave would these deals be reactivated? I've noticed that the CTA is mentioned quite a bit when discussing settled status etc.0 -
williamglenn said:
"Why would anyone vote again when MPS decide anyway?"CD13 said:Mr Glenn,
In the LDs and many Remainer's mind, 'distant ' means the day before. The mindset of a small child.
Having a Remain option on any further referendum means ignoring a previous result you didn't agree with. Why would anyone vote again when MPS decide anyway?
Remind me how MPs get their jobs.
By saying they’ll respect referendum results then plotting to overturn them?williamglenn said:
"Why would anyone vote again when MPS decide anyway?"CD13 said:Mr Glenn,
In the LDs and many Remainer's mind, 'distant ' means the day before. The mindset of a small child.
Having a Remain option on any further referendum means ignoring a previous result you didn't agree with. Why would anyone vote again when MPS decide anyway?
Remind me how MPs get their jobs.0 -
Yes Corbyn's thought processes are rather different to the Labour MP and activist mainstream who define themselves by their remaineriness. I'm not writing off the chances of something emerging today just yet.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s solution is stronger unions. It’s not a bad one if ending workplace exploitation is your priority.isam said:
He has come out as against exploitation of immigrant workers and the undercutting of the British low paid, which are the two major problems with FOM.Casino_Royale said:
He wouldn’t because his view is the more immigration the better.SouthamObserver said:
I don’t think Corbyn would choose ending FoM as a hill to die on. Some cosmetic changes, no more.OblitusSumMe said:
I think Corbyn's plan for Brexit still sees an end to Freedom of Movement (as well as being outside the CAP, CFP, etc). Losing Freedom of Movement feels like a big loss to me and is far from being BINO.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.ThomasNashe said:
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.MarqueeMark said:
May's reaching out to Corbyn fails (because Corbyn wants it to fail).SouthamObserver said:So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are:
* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
I’d guess he wants to make it harder for big corporates to profit from it anymore too, which is it’s main driver.0 -
If you ignore the context, even when it is explicitly emphasised, any quote can be twisted. Put it up on your wall and score it 1-0 to you if you need to.TOPPING said:
I wouldn't want you to be in any doubt as to my view of those people.isam said:
That would read so much better without the gratuitous insults.TOPPING said:
Suppose JRM et al won and implemented whatever flavour of Brexit their tiny, warped, idiotic, moronic brains wanted. Why would that not then be the establishment status quo?isam said:
Politicians on the whole are part of the elite establishment, it’s not worth trying to play that card really. It’s the voters that disagreed with the establishment status quo.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Thank God we have been released from the grip of the Establishment by a ragged-trousered army of Old Etonians and their billionaire hedge fund paymasters.isam said:
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.
Perhaps it would be, so what? Although in the context of the last 20 years or so of British political thought, I don’t think the ERG are the establishment. That would be Cameroon/Blairites
Meanwhile "I don't think the ERG are the establishment" must surely go down as a hall of famer PB quote.0 -
Yes you are correct but I was making the comparisionJonathan said:
It wasn’t a direct face down. She didn’t mention them.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning folks.
Reflecting on the move by TM yesterday I would compare it to Kinnock's put down of militant. TM has directly faced down ERG who were just as disruptive as militant and has moved the conservatives towards a one nation party
The irony in this is the crass behaviour of ERG themselves in overplaying their hand in sending in the letters to vonc TM far too early, then TM wins a vonc in her government, and in the last week promising to stand down on brexit providing her space to act as she has
I understand TM has given the talks with Corbyn until friday and in the absence of agreement TM will put forward indicative votes on monday to arrive at the will of the HOC, which she has said she will implement
Everything from Norway to customs union and referendums are very much still in play0
