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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets a no deal Brexit moves from a 37% chanc
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets a no deal Brexit moves from a 37% chance on Monday to a 21% chance now
Chart of Betfair market from betdata.io
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* A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain.
* A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain
* Remain
No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/04/02/national/japanese-government-says-reiwas-official-translation-beautiful-harmony/
A majority in Cabinet insists she stands down - immediately. There are widescale resignations, but Hunt takes over to implement a No Deal Brexit. The EU shits the bed. A series of micro-deals are resolved in the run up to a mid-May departure, secured by agreeing to pay £20 billion.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
Under the circumstances UK meps sit for a few weeks longer
Problem solved?
You could change the treaties, but you'd need to pass ratification legislation through the parliaments of 27 member states, not to mention potentially some referendums.
Plus, if we DO have MEPs, the EU don't want us having any ongoing involvement in setting Budgets...
It's the only element of Cabinet government that might still be functioning after yesterday.
Leaving aside that if we have to hold the EU elections, there’s going to be an, err, eclectic bunch of British MEPs elected.
I'm a little more despondent about it this morning. Compromise at this point was needed but to mps it is just admitting weakness and will be despised by Tories and seen as the enemy exposing their belly to labour. Whether May is being genuine or not I cannot see agreement being reached - Corbyn has internal politics to think about so will surely have to demand a referendum and if May felt that could pass muster in her Cabinet and party, even reluctantly, she would already have offered it.
Neither way is going to look good from the PM’s point of view, and it’s quite possible we could see a lot of resignations off the back of it. I get the feeling that the next out of the Cabinet market could be a dozen-way dead heat.
If at the end of the day we are no longer members of the EU but have repatriated the rights currently exercised by the ECJ, stop freedom of movement (not immigration per se), regain control over who fishes in our waters and stop paying into the EU piggy bank then if a customs union is the price we have to pay, fine by me.
I don't care if Jeremy Corbyn gets some of the credit for delivering Brexit. We none of us know when the next GE will be held and if it is a different PM leading the Tory Party, he or she will have a "honeymoon window" in which to call an early election.
If the DUP pulls the election pact with the Tories then frankly if I was leading the Tory Party, I wouldn't resist a referendum on a United Ireland as my "thankyou" to Arlene Foster and chums.
If Macron prevents a potential amended deal being given a chance then frankly I hope the French and Irish economies tank and very quickly.
1) The act of scheduling them reminds Brexit-inclined people that they're not getting their Brexit
2) TMay keeps trying to play games with the timing, where she doesn't call the elections then uses the lack of elections to make it difficult to extend. That in turn means that to prevent her playing chicken in their car, the EU have to specify that they have to happen as a condition of the extension, rather than just leaving it up to the good sense of the British government.
A big concession from either side would be CU without a referendum. But Corbyn will scent victory and has nothing to fear from talks collapsing, and the Tories overall prefer no deal to compromising with the opposition. Not a recipe for success.
It's annoying Letwins gambit did not already produce an indicative majority for something. Could have been the pretext for a climbdown.
https://www.greghands.com/news/five-main-reasons-why-eu-customs-union-would-be-worst-choice-all
Still so sanguine?
A new PM will need a VOC in the House to take office. One with a declared no deal prospectus won’t get that.
A sitting PM declaring no deal is the policy will be VONC’d pretty quickly if they haven’t already seen half the cabinet resign causing their downfall.
And all this is before Cooper and whatever unholy alliance she is caught up in today have put their idiotic bill through the House with Speaker connivance.
No deal really really is off the table. The ERG wildly overplayed their hand and failed to learn to count. The time to cash in their chips was about 10 days ago.
She realised that quicker than I expected, to be fair. Some might suggest she could have realised somewhat sooner...
If No Deal does happen and the dire results cause anger, constituents could subject ERG MPs to recall petitions provided they can get 10% of their electorates signatures within 6 weeks. That doesn't sound insurmountable.
Gloomy and cold, but I'm sure it'll warm up soon.
But it'd have been a mandate for the status quo ?
Admittedly you don't need a lot, but it doesn't quite seem safe to assume that enough Tories would volunteer to go kamikaze to stop it happening.
Alternatively some more headbangy TMay successor gets to the next deadline and fails to extend from there.
Now I happen to think that No deal is better than a permanent customs union/single market and that May’s Deal is best of all. But I’m not surprised with today’s shenanigans from unreconciled Remainer MPs. I’d have demanded the same action from my MP if Tony had tried to take us into the Euro without a specific mandate for it too.
As a remainer myself I wouldn't object to leaving if it had been 60 40 or even 55 45.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recall_of_MPs_Act_2015
a) the EU with a financial black hole in their accounts down to the UK leaving and
b) a Govt. that can only avoid No Deal Brexit by adding a CU to the package, going cap in hand to that same EU.
How do YOU think this is going to pan out?
If the price for a CU is anything less than "eye-watering", we'll have got off lightly......
I'm unsure it's fair to expect any reasonable compromise or consensus from Corbyn - at least, if he sees you as the enemy (which most of us would be).
MPs were always going to can that idea!
Whereas 'Brexiteers' translates as "It's someone else's fault!"
We have a majority of 3 but that includes fantasists like Francois and Baker and the DUP. There is no money for an election. If we are VONC'd we will lose.The remainer vote is going to annihilate us at an election. The only option is to try and lock Labour in to this and hope it all turns out well- or a govt of national unity. I have no control over events. Most of you will be sacked under a new PM and the members may over reach you for the next generation for the next leader. No deal is dead. I'm off soon anyway so over to you lads.
Are you sure about them being explosive?
There needs to be a reasonable degree of permanent residence. If you split your time reasonably equally between two locations, you can register at both. If you have a clear primary residence and only use the second property for leisure purposes (for example occasional holidays and weekends) then you cannot register there, and must register at your main property.
From the OP's posting, if his "spending most of his time" is an ongoing situation and not simply transient, he actually MUST register in Dorset and come off the register in Twickenham.
What would be the point?
The only logical solution to this negotiating conundrum is that May gets what she wants now and Corbyn gets what he wants later. But May has burned any trust she might have, and is going anyway.
The most likely agreement is that the WA goes through with a free vote on a PV. But we all know how the Tories feel about that.
As for storming out of the meeting including Umunna, Corbyn and May had been meeting under Privy Council rules for 20 minutes prior and having got precisely nowhere, there was no point in Corbyn staying. As a separate point, Umunna was not a leader of a political party, only at the head of a private company with interesting financial sources and banking. Somebody in no 10 was unsurprisingly, shit stirring.
As to who has the most blood on their hands, several million dead by Blair's involvement in Iraq, probably millions more by Cameron in Libya and Syria, while the continuing supply of UK weapons and personnel to Saudi for the destruction of the Yemen is not something that TMay's government should be proud of.
While Corbyn is criticised for raising justified concerns over the actions and decisions of the Israeli Government and their use of the IDF in attempting to control the Palestinians by violent and increasingly illegal and dangerous means.
Still think we are heading for Euro elections - what larks.