politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So TIG becomes Change UK in time for the possible Euro Electio
Comments
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The more I consider it the more contradictory the statement was:
I'll talk to Corbyn - he has to agree to my WA
I'll listen to his ideas about how we move forward together
I'll hold indicative votes for a way forward
I'll ask for an extension so we don't have to have an extension
Her deal will not pass. So she isn't getting the WA passed. She will have to go to Europe armed with what Corbyn / the Commons wants. At which point she has been no confidence by her own MPs thus raising the question as to whether the EU will give her the time of day0 -
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Hilary Benn welcomes May's statement as 'good news' on BBC, said May should have reached out earlier though0
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Didn't she offer to speak to Corbyn 2 years ago? And his response was "if you want to know what we think read the manifesto"?Peter_the_Punter said:
It does matter. The interest in speaking to the LOTO now rather than two years ago is an unsubtle attempt at blame shifting. It is most unlikely to succeed, unless Corbyn is even stupider than is widely supposed.kle4 said:
It doesn't matter who's fault it is right now, that can come later. Parliament wanted to take control, can they fix it is the key.dixiedean said:
So the PM has had 2 years to sort it, but if JC doesn't, from opposition, in 7 days, it's all his fault?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If Corbyn refuses to cooperate he will carry the candixiedean said:
In what way? I genuinely don't get it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If so they will be traduced by the publicGallowgate said:Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?
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Reading her exact words:
The ideal outcome of this process would be to agree an approach on a future relationship that delivers on the result of the referendum, that both the leader of the opposition and I could put to the House for approval, and which I could then take to next week’s European Council.
However, if we cannot agree on a single unified approach, then we would instead agree a number of options for the future relationship that we could put to the House in a series of votes to determine which course to pursue. Crucially, the government stands ready to abide by the decision of the House. But, to make this process work, the opposition would need to agree to this too.
I don't think she expects to reach agreement with Corbyn on the final destination. I think she's trying to edge him into supporting the Withdrawal Agreement with the Letwin process determining the future relationship.0 -
I don’t think the Conservative party is in mood to put up with surrender to Corbyns CU brexit with a ref on top like a cherry, so its not even getting as far as Euro elections.Chris said:
But that would mean participating in the Euro elections too. Would the Tory party stand for that?williamglenn said:0 -
Oh, I don't think it will take very long for us to settle into a nice protracted blame game, but I take your point. Apologies for misconstruing.kle4 said:
I said it doesn't matter right now, not that it doesn't matter. And I stand by that - we'll have decades to talk about blame.Peter_the_Punter said:
It does matter. The interest in speaking to the LOTO now rather than two years ago is an unsubtle attempt at blame shifting. It is most unlikely to succeed, unless Corbyn is even stupider than is widely supposed.kle4 said:
It doesn't matter who's fault it is right now, that can come later. Parliament wanted to take control, can they fix it is the key.dixiedean said:
So the PM has had 2 years to sort it, but if JC doesn't, from opposition, in 7 days, it's all his fault?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If Corbyn refuses to cooperate he will carry the candixiedean said:
In what way? I genuinely don't get it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If so they will be traduced by the publicGallowgate said:Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?
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He's plain wrong!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd MayBarnesian said:The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.0 -
Can only be tabled by the LOTO due to the Fixed term Parliaments act.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:VONC tabled by the nutjob wing of the ERG?
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"Why don't you tell me what's going on?Scott_P said:
Why don't you tell me who's on the phone?"0 -
Labour MP on R5 makes a good point. Questions the TV grandstanding, says she knows where Corbyns office is. But No informal contact or talks have happened. Corbyn watched statement on TV. Doubts how serious this is.0
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Well, we'll see, I guess. But being wrong about Brexit would be absolutely fantastic. And if that means swallowing humble pie about May as the Tories fall apart and the ERG is humiliated, so be it. From reading most of the posts on here, though, it seems I may have completely misunderstood what May said.isam said:
Making a couple of hundred posts of incorrect predictions is nothing to cry about Joff!SouthamObserver said:Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.
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That's been said about everything that's happened since Chequers.Chris said:
But that would mean participating in the Euro elections too. Would the Tory party stand for that?williamglenn said:0 -
I think that the defenestration of the Habsburg envoy was the act that started the 30 year war. His life was saved by a dungheap (or angels if you believe the Hapsburgs!)dots said:
If she gets cabinet resignations I think that’s in her favour.MarqueeMark said:We still have no word on Cabinet resignations.......
If they don’t resign, that’s ominous, there’s more of them in the room to pick her up and chuck her out the window.
When did that last happen, was it the Slovak leader in 30 years war?
In 1948 the Soviets repeated it on a Czech minister.0 -
What time is Mark Francois' inevitable on-air meltdown scheduled for? I don't want to to miss it.0
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Chequers redux. It will come out later. And in fact we had several Cabinet members explicity against policy back in December.eek said:
True but unless people resign they implicitly accept it.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Sky reporting EU are content to extend to 22nd MayAndy_Cooke said:Well, that statement was a waste of air.
She will ask for a further short extension but without doing the Euro elections.
The EU will say "No further extension without the Euro elections". Because we could fuck them up by failing to pass the WA and revoking in panic, too late to hold the elections. Regardless of how likely they think it that May would ever revoke, they can't be completely certain she won't.
Of course post 12th April if we do not take part in the EU elections we are out0 -
Jeremy won't fall for this.0
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It certainly is. She has micromanaged everything and expected others just to comply. She has failed to attempt a concensus, lot her majority through her own incompetence and continues to see Brexit as a matter of immigration.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think we know who has put the party in peril and it is not TMScott_P said:0 -
Says something that the thing that will do for May in the end is when she appears to want to compromise (whether she is or not). In that regard, Boles was right.0
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I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?Barnesian said:
He's plain wrong!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd MayBarnesian said:The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.0 -
Why is May so desperate to avoid European elections. I mean I know she's crap but what's the specfufc objection to European elections ?0
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Yes that is correct.dots said:
I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?Barnesian said:
He's plain wrong!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd MayBarnesian said:The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.0 -
Be careful what you wish for.Xtrain said:I've voted Tory all my life and now I just want them to be annihilated!
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Yes, but even though they probably certainly know that she probably wouldn't, they don't certainly know that although she probably wouldn't, there is no probability that she certainly would.Andy_Cooke said:Well, that statement was a waste of air.
She will ask for a further short extension but without doing the Euro elections.
The EU will say "No further extension without the Euro elections". Because we could fuck them up by failing to pass the WA and revoking in panic, too late to hold the elections. Regardless of how likely they think it that May would ever revoke, they can't be completely certain she won't.0 -
And when she states she wants a consensus (however sincerely) she may be brought down for trying, so exactly how was she supposed to attempt a consensus?AmpfieldAndy said:
It certainly is. She has micromanaged everything and expected others just to comply. She has failed to attempt a concensus, lot her majority through her own incompetence and continues to see Brexit as a matter of immigration.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think we know who has put the party in peril and it is not TMScott_P said:0 -
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Nah, she's trying to get it to a situation where it's her deal Vs her deal with some modifications made by Labour, anticipating that parliament will choose the former. No need to split the WA vote from the PDRichard_Nabavi said:Reading her exact words:
The ideal outcome of this process would be to agree an approach on a future relationship that delivers on the result of the referendum, that both the leader of the opposition and I could put to the House for approval, and which I could then take to next week’s European Council.
However, if we cannot agree on a single unified approach, then we would instead agree a number of options for the future relationship that we could put to the House in a series of votes to determine which course to pursue. Crucially, the government stands ready to abide by the decision of the House. But, to make this process work, the opposition would need to agree to this too.
I don't think she expects to reach agreement with Corbyn on the final destination. I think she's trying to edge him into supporting the Withdrawal Agreement with the Letwin process determining the future relationship.0 -
The optics. I don't think anyone cares which particular nutjobs get packed off to Brussels and Strasbourg, where they can't do any harm other than spend taxpayers' money on moules frites and foie gras.Pulpstar said:Why is May so desperate to avoid European elections. I mean I know she's crap but what's the specfufc objection to European elections ?
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That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.dots said:
I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?Barnesian said:
He's plain wrong!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd MayBarnesian said:The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.0 -
Am I right in concluding: Nothing Has Changed?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Presumably they would cease to be Tories were they to go nuclear, so they wouldn't be concerned about the Tories fighting an election with May as leader.AmpfieldAndy said:0 -
I think I would believe him with his closeness to the EUBarnesian said:
He's plain wrong!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd MayBarnesian said:The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.0 -
That it becomes a de facto referendum on Brexit.Pulpstar said:Why is May so desperate to avoid European elections. I mean I know she's crap but what's the specfufc objection to European elections ?
Just imagine if parties committed to revoking Article 50 win a majority of the votes/and or seats.0 -
Given how few Tories have been voting "Aye" in the indicative votes, if she really means that, government support could transform quite a narrow victory in an indicative vote now, into quite a substantial majority in favour.Richard_Nabavi said:Reading her exact words:
The ideal outcome of this process would be to agree an approach on a future relationship that delivers on the result of the referendum, that both the leader of the opposition and I could put to the House for approval, and which I could then take to next week’s European Council.
However, if we cannot agree on a single unified approach, then we would instead agree a number of options for the future relationship that we could put to the House in a series of votes to determine which course to pursue. Crucially, the government stands ready to abide by the decision of the House. But, to make this process work, the opposition would need to agree to this too.
I don't think she expects to reach agreement with Corbyn on the final destination. I think she's trying to edge him into supporting the Withdrawal Agreement with the Letwin process determining the future relationship.0 -
Anger at May is understandable and plenty is justified. But if there are moves toward softer Brexits, well, everyone had a chance to have a harder one earlier and they called it vassalage. Perhaps CU is super duper vassalage?0
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Keep watching the Downing Street windows! The Blukip Party is about to blow its head off to stop May’s Labour Brexit 😂Foxy said:
I think that the defenestration of the Habsburg envoy was the act that started the 30 year war. His life was saved by a dungheap (or angels if you believe the Hapsburgs!)dots said:
If she gets cabinet resignations I think that’s in her favour.MarqueeMark said:We still have no word on Cabinet resignations.......
If they don’t resign, that’s ominous, there’s more of them in the room to pick her up and chuck her out the window.
When did that last happen, was it the Slovak leader in 30 years war?
In 1948 the Soviets repeated it on a Czech minister.0 -
Deltapoll on Sunday had Tory voters backing May's Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% and voters as a whole 36% to 29%. Provided the Tories don't revoke I think it is doable without annihilation albeit some Tory Leavers would move to Farage's new Brexit Partydots said:
I don’t think the Conservative party is in mood to put up with surrender to Corbyns CU brexit with a ref on top like a cherry, so its not even getting as far as Euro elections.Chris said:
But that would mean participating in the Euro elections too. Would the Tory party stand for that?williamglenn said:0 -
I think a lot has changed.Foxy said:
Am I right in concluding: Nothing Has Changed?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Agreed. It's the same considerations that has stopped her 'reaching out' to other Parties, notably the Official Opposition, to cobble something acceptable together.Richard_Nabavi said:
The optics. I don't think anyone cares which particular nutjobs get packed off to Brussels and Strasbourg, where they can't do any harm other than spend taxpayers' money on moules frites and foie gras.Pulpstar said:Why is May so desperate to avoid European elections. I mean I know she's crap but what's the specfufc objection to European elections ?
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She clearly indicated that she didn't want No Deal, but unless or until a Deal is passed then that continues to be the default position at the end of the process. The only other means to avoid No Deal are, of course, to abandon Brexit altogether or to can-kick.SouthamObserver said:
As I say in another post, I am probably being incredibly naive, but I heard her ruling out No Deal. If that has happened we are going to get a softer Brexit and in the absence of us staying in the EU - which is out of the question - that is very good news.Black_Rook said:
But what is this supposed to achieve? Assuming that the EU grants the extension, talks with Corbyn will achieve nothing. How this will most likely end is with a few weeks of can-kicking, followed by yet another attempt to get the Withdrawal Agreement to pass.SouthamObserver said:Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.
I'm very sceptical about this. My husband, on the other hand, thinks that after the talks with Corbyn fail, this will end with a Government-sponsored round of indicative votes and Deal+CU will eventually pass. We'll see which, if either, of us is right. Eventually.
At the moment, it looks like the Government is going to attempt to kick the can. What I'm concerned about is that the EU may not only let them do it, but insist on a fairly long extension - to clarify the position re: the European elections, by obliging us to take part in them. I was prepared to countenance the possibility of a second referendum, as nasty as it would be, to achieve some sort of resolution to (this phase of) the Brexit process, but European elections would be a pointless fist-fight, pure and simple. And I'm really not sure this is what the country needs right now.0 -
If - given that the only revoke parties are the Lib Dems and Change alongside the SNP in Scotland I expect it's highly likely....TheScreamingEagles said:
That it becomes a de facto referendum on Brexit.Pulpstar said:Why is May so desperate to avoid European elections. I mean I know she's crap but what's the specfufc objection to European elections ?
Just imagine if parties committed to revoking Article 50 win a majority of the votes/and or seats.0 -
May could be the new Sir Robert Peel or Ramsay MacDonald, having said she will not contest another general election once she gets a Deal through she has clearly decided to leave as a stateswomam and appeal to the country even if it annoys much of her partySouthamObserver said:
Well, we'll see, I guess. But being wrong about Brexit would be absolutely fantastic. And if that means swallowing humble pie about May as the Tories fall apart and the ERG is humiliated, so be it. From reading most of the posts on here, though, it seems I may have completely misunderstood what May said.isam said:
Making a couple of hundred posts of incorrect predictions is nothing to cry about Joff!SouthamObserver said:Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.
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Quite.eek said:I'm surprised no one has posted this obvious issue
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/11131287298851471370 -
I’m very disappointed in Douglas Carswell.TheScreamingEagles said:
I expected him to act more like Michael Gove not Steve Baker.0 -
BBC news says Leadsom, Truss and Williamson the biggest Cabinet opponents of a lengthy extension0
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As Dom Cummings blogged this week - a competent govt won’t be permanently bound by any of this.
Corbyn would be a fool to go near this.0 -
They'll extend to 22 May IF we've sorted out some Withdrawal Agreement by the time May turns up at the summit in April.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky reporting EU are content to extend to 22nd MayAndy_Cooke said:Well, that statement was a waste of air.
She will ask for a further short extension but without doing the Euro elections.
The EU will say "No further extension without the Euro elections". Because we could fuck them up by failing to pass the WA and revoking in panic, too late to hold the elections. Regardless of how likely they think it that May would ever revoke, they can't be completely certain she won't.
Of course post 12th April if we do not take part in the EU elections we are out
Otherwise, they're gambling too much. If they give us to late May, we fail to be ready, and the PM (not necessarily May) revokes at that point, they can't refuse to let us stay.0 -
Pity the poor Con local councillors up for election - a hammering awaits.0
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SKY presenters are dunderheids, you could pick anyone off the street who would know more than the tossers they have as presenters.Barnesian said:
He's plain wrong!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd MayBarnesian said:The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.0 -
That's actually tenatively positive given what I expected and given I do think this is mainly about May blaming Corbyn for no deal.HYUFD said:Hilary Benn welcomes May's statement as 'good news' on BBC, said May should have reached out earlier though
The cynic in me says Benn is saying that because he is confident May willbe gone soon because no way she carries the Tories through this - it took 7 hours to get presumably most of the Cabinet on board, and there are probably resignations to come - and she cannot devote that time to the loyal troops, let along the ERGers who took months and months to come around to her WA, reluctantly, let alone something softer.0 -
No ....Foxy said:
Am I right in concluding: Nothing Has Changed?TheScreamingEagles said:
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Good move by May. Flushes Labour out, could actually get sensible way forward. Worst case is her deal versus Corbyn in indicative vote, if Corbyn's approach gets fewer votes there is still pressure on Labour to not block WA. Labour approach also less likely to appeal to swing voters and their leaver base in Midlands and North.0
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If we had politicians as transparently decent as Tusk or as skillful as Michel Barnier we'd be in a much better place, in fact probably not be Brexiting at all. I never thought EU membership made us a colony, but I'd happily be an EU colony right now. We can't govern ourselves.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I've rarely voted Tory but I certainly don't want them annihilated. It may well happen though. If Labour were stronger, I think the likelihood would be considerable; as it is, the Tories may make themselves so unpopular that do get hammered regardless.Casino_Royale said:
Be careful what you wish for.Xtrain said:I've voted Tory all my life and now I just want them to be annihilated!
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Yes. Theresa May will sit down with Jeremy Corbyn to agree ... oh, hold on, but the WA is not included in May's offer.Foxy said:
Am I right in concluding: Nothing Has Changed?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.Barnesian said:
That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.dots said:
I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?Barnesian said:
He's plain wrong!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd MayBarnesian said:The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.
Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.0 -
I think they are. They want Brexit, they want the Tory Party, and they want power. What they don’t want is either a split party or a GE.tlg86 said:
Presumably they would cease to be Tories were they to go nuclear, so they wouldn't be concerned about the Tories fighting an election with May as leader.AmpfieldAndy said:0 -
Claire Perry has been having a tough time of it locally apparentlyTheScreamingEagles said:
https://www.gazetteandherald.co.uk/news/17541413.mp-claire-perry-heckled-by-tory-faithful/
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I think there's some confusion on the EU's attitude to an extension. There are two separate kinds of possible extension:
1. If we have ratified the Withdrawal Agreement, then they'd be happy to extend until 22nd May, because they'd know for sure that we were actually going to leave on the agreed date and therefore wouldn't get tangled up in the EU elections. (This is what they already agreed to with a deadline of last Friday to accept it, but they can wait a few more days if they see that the WA is about to be ratified).
2. If we haven't ratified the Withdrawal Agreement, then any extension past the already agreed 12th April has to be a long one, with a commitment to take part in the European elections.0 -
Yes, she has decided that if a government of national unity is needed she may as well head it herself.HYUFD said:
May could be the new Sir Robert Peel or Ramsay MacDonald, having said she will not contest another general election once she gets a Deal through she has clearly decided to leave as a stateswomam and appeal to the country even if it annoys much of her partySouthamObserver said:
Well, we'll see, I guess. But being wrong about Brexit would be absolutely fantastic. And if that means swallowing humble pie about May as the Tories fall apart and the ERG is humiliated, so be it. From reading most of the posts on here, though, it seems I may have completely misunderstood what May said.isam said:
Making a couple of hundred posts of incorrect predictions is nothing to cry about Joff!SouthamObserver said:Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.
Problem with your cabinet? Lock them away, confiscate their phones and not mention them whilst you pledge to work cross party to come up with an option to present together. Problem with your party? Ignore their views and announce that you will accept whatever the Commons agrees knowing your party will be in the No lobby of whatever that happens to be.
She has today ceased to lead the Conservative Party and has instead decided to oppose it.0 -
Deltapoll at the weekend had Tory voters backing Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% but Labour voters only backing it 35% to 31%, this could yet be a shrewd move by May if it leads to extension then Deal plus Customs Union passing the Commonsdots said:
It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.Barnesian said:
That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.dots said:
I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?Barnesian said:
He's plain wrong!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd MayBarnesian said:The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.
Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.0 -
Pretty close to previously mooted numbers. Worst possible for May, since they are split down the middle, pretty much.TheScreamingEagles said:
No way she can get something like this through, if she cannot get half the Cabinet to back she probably cannot get 1/4 of the party.0 -
The WDA is not open for discussion even if TM and Corbyn wanted to. The EU have repeated the WDA will not be negotiated, ad infinitumDecrepitJohnL said:
Yes. Theresa May will sit down with Jeremy Corbyn to agree ... oh, hold on, but the WA is not included in May's offer.Foxy said:
Am I right in concluding: Nothing Has Changed?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Were neither of you listening when she explicitly set out what the procedure would be in that case? In fact I'm sure she fully expects there to be no agreementAmpfieldAndy said:
Quite.eek said:I'm surprised no one has posted this obvious issue
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/11131287298851471370 -
I thought the whole point of appointing Williamson to cabinet was because he’s her pet loyalist? There’s no other reason to have him in is thereTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
kle4 said:
And when she states she wants a consensus (however sincerely) she may be brought down for trying, so exactly how was she supposed to attempt a consensus?AmpfieldAndy said:
It certainly is. She has micromanaged everything and expected others just to comply. She has failed to attempt a concensus, lot her majority through her own incompetence and continues to see Brexit as a matter of immigration.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think we know who has put the party in peril and it is not TMScott_P said:
This isn’t about trying to build concensus. They are not going to agree anything. This is about trying to shift some of the blame for a deal not being made to Corbyn before a GE.0 -
The Cabinet met for 7 hours.!!!!!!
And the upshot was they're going to kick the can by begging for another extension and then they'll get Jezza to tell them what to do.
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I've repeatedly said on here that No Deal isn't going to happen. Doesn't matter how many times people say it could happen, it won't.
Anyway, the loons on the hard right won't be happy.0 -
So we end up with the turd of a customs union ? Great.Stereotomy said:
Were neither of you listening when she explicitly set out what the procedure would be in that case? In fact I'm sure she fully expects there to be no agreementAmpfieldAndy said:
Quite.eek said:I'm surprised no one has posted this obvious issue
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/11131287298851471370 -
Always a get out, love it!SouthamObserver said:
Well, we'll see, I guess. But being wrong about Brexit would be absolutely fantastic. And if that means swallowing humble pie about May as the Tories fall apart and the ERG is humiliated, so be it. From reading most of the posts on here, though, it seems I may have completely misunderstood what May said.isam said:
Making a couple of hundred posts of incorrect predictions is nothing to cry about Joff!SouthamObserver said:Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.
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Indeed, Peel was succeeded as Tory leader by the protectionist Lord Derby but he got his repeal of the Corn Laws through beforehandRochdalePioneers said:
Yes, she has decided that if a government of national unity is needed she may as well head it herself.HYUFD said:
May could be the new Sir Robert Peel or Ramsay MacDonald, having said she will not contest another general election once she gets a Deal through she has clearly decided to leave as a stateswomam and appeal to the country even if it annoys much of her partySouthamObserver said:
Well, we'll see, I guess. But being wrong about Brexit would be absolutely fantastic. And if that means swallowing humble pie about May as the Tories fall apart and the ERG is humiliated, so be it. From reading most of the posts on here, though, it seems I may have completely misunderstood what May said.isam said:
Making a couple of hundred posts of incorrect predictions is nothing to cry about Joff!SouthamObserver said:Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.
Problem with your cabinet? Lock them away, confiscate their phones and not mention them whilst you pledge to work cross party to come up with an option to present together. Problem with your party? Ignore their views and announce that you will accept whatever the Commons agrees knowing your party will be in the No lobby of whatever that happens to be.
She has today ceased to lead the Conservative Party and has instead decided to oppose it.0 -
Is there any dummy out there who did not understand that was the case.Richard_Nabavi said:I think there's some confusion on the EU's attitude to an extension. There are two separate kinds of possible extension:
1. If we have ratified the Withdrawal Agreement, then they'd be happy to extend until 22nd May, because they'd know for sure that we were actually going to leave on the agreed date and therefore wouldn't get tangled up in the EU elections. (This is what they already agreed to with a deadline of last Friday to accept it, but they can wait a few more days if they see that the WA is about to be ratified).
2. If we haven't ratified the Withdrawal Agreement, then any extension past the already agreed 12th April has to be a long one, with a commitment to take part in the European elections.0 -
Watched the Cabinet Ministers leaving No. 10 and as far as I could see, there was a lot of suppressed anger getting into their ministerial cars. Think she tried to grind them down over the 7 hours, and it didn't work.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?0
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Meaning unlikely? But the election is completely decoupled from real life, because who our meps were made the squaqre root of bugger all difference even if we were members. I would certainly vote for a revoke party absolutely irrespective of its other policies. It would be a perfect proxy for a people's vote and I would expect the Lib Dejms to campaign on that basis.eek said:
If - given that the only revoke parties are the Lib Dems and Change alongside the SNP in Scotland I expect it's highly likely....TheScreamingEagles said:
That it becomes a de facto referendum on Brexit.Pulpstar said:Why is May so desperate to avoid European elections. I mean I know she's crap but what's the specfufc objection to European elections ?
Just imagine if parties committed to revoking Article 50 win a majority of the votes/and or seats.0 -
Are you trolling me with your flimsy delta poll?HYUFD said:
Deltapoll at the weekend had Tory voters backing Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% but Labour voters only backing it 35% to 31%, this could yet be a shrewd move by May if it leads to extension then Deal plus Customs Union passing the Commonsdots said:
It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.Barnesian said:
That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.dots said:
I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?Barnesian said:
He's plain wrong!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd MayBarnesian said:The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.
Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.
It’s going to take more than that poll to save her.
14 cabinet ministers and 200 MPs against this, and that’s the remainery end of the party 😄0 -
Yes I know, that's why I added the part about sincerity. The point was that her own party will probably be apoplectic at the idea it is sincere, which shows why she hsa not tried for consensus, because her party will go ballistic.AmpfieldAndy said:kle4 said:
And when she states she wants a consensus (however sincerely) she may be brought down for trying, so exactly how was she supposed to attempt a consensus?AmpfieldAndy said:
It certainly is. She has micromanaged everything and expected others just to comply. She has failed to attempt a concensus, lot her majority through her own incompetence and continues to see Brexit as a matter of immigration.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think we know who has put the party in peril and it is not TMScott_P said:
This isn’t about trying to build concensus. They are not going to agree anything. This is about trying to shift some of the blame for a deal not being made to Corbyn before a GE.0 -
Happy to be of service.isam said:
Always a get out, love it!SouthamObserver said:
Well, we'll see, I guess. But being wrong about Brexit would be absolutely fantastic. And if that means swallowing humble pie about May as the Tories fall apart and the ERG is humiliated, so be it. From reading most of the posts on here, though, it seems I may have completely misunderstood what May said.isam said:
Making a couple of hundred posts of incorrect predictions is nothing to cry about Joff!SouthamObserver said:Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.
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It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MPMaxPB said:Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
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Agreed. Corbyn won't be able to walk out again, after the fuss last time caused, but he'll escape entanglement by simply demanding something ridiculous/unicornish. Nothing has really changed from his viewpoint - he wants a no-deal Brexit because of the electoral damage it'll cause the Tories.Stereotomy said:
Were neither of you listening when she explicitly set out what the procedure would be in that case? In fact I'm sure she fully expects there to be no agreement
Thus, the rest of her statement is what really matters, in particular the new willingness to be bound be indicative vote outcomes.
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They have been remarkably faithful to the whip, on passing the WA at least. On that, nothing has changed.HYUFD said:
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MPMaxPB said:Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
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When I was listening I did not think the language about 22nd May was that clear-cut. It might be worth rereading, but it seemed to me there was a little bit of wriggle room built in. I felt "should" was doing a fair bit of work.Richard_Nabavi said:I think there's some confusion on the EU's attitude to an extension. There are two separate kinds of possible extension:
1. If we have ratified the Withdrawal Agreement, then they'd be happy to extend until 22nd May, because they'd know for sure that we were actually going to leave on the agreed date and therefore wouldn't get tangled up in the EU elections. (This is what they already agreed to with a deadline of last Friday to accept it, but they can wait a few more days if they see that the WA is about to be ratified).
2. If we haven't ratified the Withdrawal Agreement, then any extension past the already agreed 12th April has to be a long one, with a commitment to take part in the European elections.
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1/4 to 1/3 Of the party would be enough if most Labour MPs back it and the SNP and LDs abstain.kle4 said:
Pretty close to previously mooted numbers. Worst possible for May, since they are split down the middle, pretty much.TheScreamingEagles said:
No way she can get something like this through, if she cannot get half the Cabinet to back she probably cannot get 1/4 of the party.
Deal plus Customs Union Only gets through with Labour MPs votes, most Tory MPs will vote against it0 -
Not convinced. An election is almost inevitable. Tories are buying time to prepare. Her party will only only go ballistic if there is an election with May still leader.kle4 said:
Yes I know, that's why I added the part about sincerity. The point was that her own party will probably be apoplectic at the idea it is sincere, which shows why she hsa not tried for consensus, because her party will go ballistic.AmpfieldAndy said:kle4 said:
And when she states she wants a consensus (however sincerely) she may be brought down for trying, so exactly how was she supposed to attempt a consensus?AmpfieldAndy said:
It certainly is. She has micromanaged everything and expected others just to comply. She has failed to attempt a concensus, lot her majority through her own incompetence and continues to see Brexit as a matter of immigration.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think we know who has put the party in peril and it is not TMScott_P said:
This isn’t about trying to build concensus. They are not going to agree anything. This is about trying to shift some of the blame for a deal not being made to Corbyn before a GE.0 -
So the two current politicians least attuned to compromise are getting in a room together to compromise. I have concerns.0
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So essentially the upshot is noone still has a fucking clue what's going on?0
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I think we have had that plan before. May doesn't do compromise, she thinks it means having her own way.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yes. Theresa May will sit down with Jeremy Corbyn to agree ... oh, hold on, but the WA is not included in May's offer.Foxy said:
Am I right in concluding: Nothing Has Changed?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Can’t see them backing her in the VONC which is coming soon.HYUFD said:
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MPMaxPB said:Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
She’s done - stick a fork in her.0 -
Sod looking at Gove. Look at the political cabinet discussing election risks, and look at Hammond.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The Labour whipping operation has been excellent, given the doubts and divisions they have stuck together when it matters. Corbyn owes Brown a lot.kle4 said:
They have been remarkably faithful to the whip, on passing the WA at least. On that, nothing has changed.HYUFD said:
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MPMaxPB said:Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
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The damage to the party may already be done by the time she goes.AmpfieldAndy said:
Not convinced. An election is almost inevitable. Tories are buying time to prepare. Her party will only only go ballistic if there is an election with May still leader.kle4 said:
Yes I know, that's why I added the part about sincerity. The point was that her own party will probably be apoplectic at the idea it is sincere, which shows why she hsa not tried for consensus, because her party will go ballistic.AmpfieldAndy said:kle4 said:
And when she states she wants a consensus (however sincerely) she may be brought down for trying, so exactly how was she supposed to attempt a consensus?AmpfieldAndy said:
It certainly is. She has micromanaged everything and expected others just to comply. She has failed to attempt a concensus, lot her majority through her own incompetence and continues to see Brexit as a matter of immigration.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think we know who has put the party in peril and it is not TMScott_P said:
This isn’t about trying to build concensus. They are not going to agree anything. This is about trying to shift some of the blame for a deal not being made to Corbyn before a GE.
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