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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So TIG becomes Change UK in time for the possible Euro Electio

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    'A series of votes to be put to the house'

    Indicative votes bingo.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106
    edited April 2019
    Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?
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    Dadge said:

    May trying to call Corbyn's bluff

    Well done TM. Making Corbyn responsible is a smart move
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Corbyn is never going to compromise.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    They read PB.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    What a load of wank
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    That'll piss off the ERG, so at least it has an upside.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Corbyn is never going to compromise.

    And thus will have to take the blame

    TM has shown willingness to talk. He has to play ball or face the consequences
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    LMAO, just when you think she can't get any worse at politics, she does.
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    Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?

    If so they will be traduced by the public
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,200
    This is pathetic.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Andrew said:

    She's going to talk to Corbyn. Radical thinking.

    #shouldhavedonethis2yearsago


    Corbyn refused.
    And Corbyn wanted to invoke Article 50 on the morning after the referendum

    We cannot let him forget that classic
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    Scott_P said:
    Parliament would have demanded it tomorrow. Might as well get ahead of it.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    This plan is dead on arrival.
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    She hasn't the slightest clue how to fix this. Talks with Corbyn? Done that already. Vote for her deal? Done that already. Indicative votes? Done that already.
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Oh God no, another fucking extension!

    Death by a thousand cuts. She and Corbyn will agree to nothing. She is offering him credibility to be part of the solution in exchange for making him a scapegoat if nothing comes of it. All Corbyn wants is a GE.
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    rawzerrawzer Posts: 189
    rawzer said:

    I'd like to make a "big open and comprehensive offer" to Jeremy Corbyn.....

    Oops, it was a joke, sorry
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    A meeting with Tom Watson would have been more productive.
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    This is pathetic.

    Why
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106

    Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?

    If so they will be traduced by the public
    I think this is wishful thinking.

    The line will simply be that nothing in the PD is binding and therefore it's worthless.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    The European Elections would actually have been a decent barometer of public opinion, it's a shame they aren't going ahead.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?

    If so they will be traduced by the public
    No they won't. They'll say May won't compromise and his acolytes will repeat that
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,200
    The question is what is the next step of this plan that they want to blame Corbyn for (not that it will be credible).
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930
    Nothing. Has. Changed.

    Keep. Kicking. That. Can.

    :D
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    Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.

    Just my thoughts
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    No deal isn’t happening .

    Amen!
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,036

    Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?

    If so they will be traduced by the public
    In what way? I genuinely don't get it.
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    This will set the optics for the blame game when Brexit fails.

    Very clever from TM.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Rigby is a dreadful journalist - utterly without personality or class.

    How on earth did she get promoted?
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Hopefully the EU will tell her to sod off - HOWEVER, if they don't *AND* she's really serious about avoiding No Deal, then the writ for the European Parliamentary elections is going to have to be moved before April 12th.

    If the country isn't ready to hold the European elections then we'll *have* to leave on May 22nd regardless.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2019
    Beth Ribgy shouting questions at cabinet ministers leaving downing street like a cheap hack
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Charles said:

    Endillion said:

    Charles said:



    I think there's a reasonable rule of thumb: if you'd get arrested for standing in the street and shouting something into a megaphone, you shouldn't expect a right to say it on open forums on the Internet. Though there are difficulties with that concept as well wrt territories.

    It’s a reasonable analogy

    The difference is YouTube isn’t arresting him for shouting something into a megaphone, they are preventing him from saying anything
    If you get arrested for shouting things into a megaphone enough times on, say, Oxford Street, eventually you should just get banned from Oxford Street altogether. And possibly a bunch of other streets nearby, just in case. YouTube is a private company rather than a public space, which should make it simpler to ban people they don't want.

    Actually I think this is a positive development generally. The problem we're having with the likes of YouTube and Facebook is that they have long insisted they are tech companies, not publishing/media companies, and therefore they have no responsibility for what people use their platforms to post. The recent trend has been towards forcing them to take more and more action to remove prohibited content quicker - in particular the recent New Zealand mosque attack, where they were criticised for allowing the gunman to post live footage - which is almost impossible to stop unless you require moderation for everything in real time. If we had similar rules in place social media companies as we do for the wider media (eg editors can't just hide behind their journalists if they post false accusations without checking them properly) then we'd be in a much better place.
    The concern is once they become a dominant stream of discourse they are not just private companies. In the way that, for example, it is (rightly) very difficult to cut off someone’s water or gas supply it should be difficult to cut off their right to express their views publicly
    If we've gotten to the point where YouTube is being compared to utility companies, then something has gone seriously wrong somewhere. I don't think we have; the great thing about the internet is that there are no barriers to entry remotely comparable to the utility companies, so he is perfectly able and entitled to start his own blog or website and publish whatever he fancies. I don't see why YouTube should be forced to pay to host him and watch him tank their advertising revenue into the bargain.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,202
    Sky news reports Leadsom may resign possibly other Leavers in Cabinet
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    dixiedean said:

    Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?

    If so they will be traduced by the public
    In what way? I genuinely don't get it.
    If Corbyn refuses to cooperate he will carry the can
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,200

    This will set the optics for the blame game when Brexit fails.

    Very clever from TM.

    Waiting until after the date when we were supposed to leave to make a "big generous offer" to Corbyn to agree the approach in the national interest?
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    May has effectively stopped being Tory PM and abandoned Blue Brexit. Corbyn wins(?) but I'm not sure he wants to work with her. The price she's paying (losing support from the Brexiters in her party) might not be worth it?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086

    Looking for a deal with Corbyn

    Better a Corbyn Brexit than no Brexit?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,428
    edited April 2019

    Rigby is a dreadful journalist - utterly without personality or class.

    How on earth did she get promoted?

    Not too difficult to be promoted to Faisal Islam role
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    HYUFD said:

    Sky news reports Leadsom may resign possibly other Leavers in Cabinet

    I am watching Sky and they didn't report that - they speculated that. Because Rigby is trying to fill the air when she has nothing actually worth saying
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,202

    Hopefully the EU will tell her to sod off - HOWEVER, if they don't *AND* she's really serious about avoiding No Deal, then the writ for the European Parliamentary elections is going to have to be moved before April 12th.

    If the country isn't ready to hold the European elections then we'll *have* to leave on May 22nd regardless.

    Adler on BBC says EU will likely agree further extension provided UK contests the EU Parliament elections to avoid blame for any No Deal
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    nico67 said:

    No deal isn’t happening .

    Amen!

    Hold your horses. On what basis will she be asking for the extension to 22nd May? And does she know what this does to business? We can't sit here at Defcon 1 forever
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106
    She's trying to blame Corbyn for a no deal Brexit and it just won't work. I'm even beginning to be tempted to vote Labour in the next election just to spite her. Just awful.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    edited April 2019

    Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.

    It’s brave. Glad she has done it. She’ll get a lot of stick. As will Corbyn. Hope it’s genuine, not tactics. Will give her benefit of doubt.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,329
    If Jezza was shrewd he'd tell Theresa that he'd support her WA on the condition that if the Irish border problem wasn't solved there'd be a referendum on a united Ireland. What could Theresa possibly say to that?
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,145
    HYUFD said:

    Sky news reports Leadsom may resign possibly other Leavers in Cabinet

    That must be a good sign.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,200

    She's trying to blame Corbyn for a no deal Brexit and it just won't work. I'm even beginning to be tempted to vote Labour in the next election just to spite her. Just awful.

    For going into the European elections, not for No Deal.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    Scott_P said:
    The DUP cannot be talked to on this matter. If Brexit costs the Tories their majority, that is a price they have to pay.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Reading everyone else's posts I guess I must be extremely naive. I thought she had chosen a soft Brexit and that No Deal has come off the table. Clearly not. How did I miss it from what May said?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2019
    I don't get why people are saying she's ruled out No Deal?

    The main takeaway I got from that speech was her ruling out an extension past 22 May, or taking part in European elections. That's basically choosing No Deal, since there's not a cat's chance in hell her deal will pass before then.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086

    She's trying to blame Corbyn for a no deal Brexit and it just won't work. I'm even beginning to be tempted to vote Labour in the next election just to spite her. Just awful.

    How is it different to Corbyn seeking to blame May for a no deal Brexit?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,200

    Reading everyone else's posts I guess I must be extremely naive. I thought she had chosen a soft Brexit and that No Deal has come off the table. Clearly not. How did I miss it from what May said?

    She hasn't chosen anything except to kick the can a bit more and try to blame Corbyn for whatever comes next.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,031
    nico67 said:

    No deal isn’t happening .

    Amen!

    I am not sure that is what happened although it is the Sky spin.

    May said that we could make a success of No Deal but she was going to try this first. If this fails then the No Deal option is still on the table. And there are so many ways this can fail.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,178
    Looks desperate to me, not smart.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    Dadge said:

    May has effectively stopped being Tory PM and abandoned Blue Brexit. Corbyn wins(?) but I'm not sure he wants to work with her. The price she's paying (losing support from the Brexiters in her party) might not be worth it?

    If no deal is as bad as many think, then it is worth it.
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    dotsdots Posts: 615

    dixiedean said:

    Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?

    If so they will be traduced by the public
    In what way? I genuinely don't get it.
    If Corbyn refuses to cooperate he will carry the can
    Some of you have read this very wrong if you think this drops Labour in it. Those of you who say brexiteers won’t be happy are spot on. She’s just clearly said looking for softer brexit and new red lines to get a deal.

    And what’s May’s party going to do now May goes that way? Moves the red lines.

    She’s toast.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,912
    Evening all :)

    Hearing this on way home. It's rarely a good move for a prime Minister to treat the LOTO as an equal. May is giving Corbyn an authority and a legitimacy he doesn't have currently and doesn't deserve.

    IF Corbyn makes it to 10 Downing Street this might be one of the crucial moments - providing he has the sense to look statesmanlike and doesn't descend into party political petulance (or flatulence).
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106
    kle4 said:

    She's trying to blame Corbyn for a no deal Brexit and it just won't work. I'm even beginning to be tempted to vote Labour in the next election just to spite her. Just awful.

    How is it different to Corbyn seeking to blame May for a no deal Brexit?
    Because May is Prime Minister. She is literally responsible. It's her job.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    nico67 said:

    No deal isn’t happening .

    Amen!

    That's a bold call!
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Corbyn needs to be seen walking into No10.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    May salting the earth for her successor - might buy her another 12 months in the job - nobody is touching this turd way.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    Told everyone May would collapse like a cheap suit
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    HYUFD said:

    Sky news reports Leadsom may resign possibly other Leavers in Cabinet

    No big deal - choosing a direction meant fracturing the fragile alliance in Cabinet, which meant resignations.

    I'd be more worried if there were no resignations.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    Reading everyone else's posts I guess I must be extremely naive. I thought she had chosen a soft Brexit and that No Deal has come off the table. Clearly not. How did I miss it from what May said?

    No I agree with you. I think May was saying 1. CU deal with Labour, if not that 2. indicative votes leading to CU deal. And then she crosses her fingers and hopes enough MPs back it.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,200
    stodge said:

    Hearing this on way home. It's rarely a good move for a prime Minister to treat the LOTO as an equal. May is giving Corbyn an authority and a legitimacy he doesn't have currently and doesn't deserve.

    https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/865855578454806529
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn needs to be seen walking into No10.

    To hand in a rural bus petition
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Didn't May meet Corbyn last week? Although he walked out as Chuka was there. Why would this make any difference?
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,197
    Don't really see how this can work when nothing else had. There's still no deal that can pass the house, not split the Tories and be agreed with the EU. The two solutions are as they have always been: accept the Tory split or try to change the parliamentary arithmetic via an election.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,704
    Artist said:

    A meeting with Tom Watson would have been more productive.

    That would be my play.

    Corbyn (Seamus Milne) will manufacture a reason not to cooperate.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930
    So after 7 hours the Cabinet has decided Jezza runs the country?

    Weak. Weak. Weak.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    geoffw said:

    Looks desperate to me, not smart.

    She is desperate, that's not a secret. She believes Parliament needs to pass something. Her actions are consistent with that.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,704

    nico67 said:

    No deal isn’t happening .

    Amen!

    I am not sure that is what happened although it is the Sky spin.

    May said that we could make a success of No Deal but she was going to try this first. If this fails then the No Deal option is still on the table. And there are so many ways this can fail.
    That’s what the ERG will cling onto as an excuse for their obstinacy.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.

    But what is this supposed to achieve? Assuming that the EU grants the extension, talks with Corbyn will achieve nothing. How this will most likely end is with a few weeks of can-kicking, followed by yet another attempt to get the Withdrawal Agreement to pass.

    I'm very sceptical about this. My husband, on the other hand, thinks that after the talks with Corbyn fail, this will end with a Government-sponsored round of indicative votes and Deal+CU will eventually pass. We'll see which, if either, of us is right. Eventually.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    The one tactical strength she has left is that the Tory Party cannot shift her.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,329
    This is risky stuff from Theresa. She doesn't want Jezza to look like the messiah striding into Number Ten, poised to salvage Brexit and the nation with it.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,200
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn needs to be seen walking into No10.

    If he came out of his meeting with May and made a statement on the steps of Downing Street saying her deal should be put to a People's Vote, he'd look like the real PM.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086

    kle4 said:

    She's trying to blame Corbyn for a no deal Brexit and it just won't work. I'm even beginning to be tempted to vote Labour in the next election just to spite her. Just awful.

    How is it different to Corbyn seeking to blame May for a no deal Brexit?
    Because May is Prime Minister. She is literally responsible. It's her job.
    Sorry, that doen't wash. Parliament must pass something. She is more responsible for this mess than Corbyn because she is PM, but if both are doing the same thing now, just seeking to blame the other for no deal, it is no different.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn needs to be seen walking into No10.

    Might be his only chance
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930
    Jonathan said:

    The one tactical strength she has left is that the Tory Party cannot shift her.

    I think you'll find the 1922 can change the leadership rules anytime there is a demand for it from the Parliamentary party....
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    Jonathan said:

    The one tactical strength she has left is that the Tory Party cannot shift her.

    I expect the shit head wing of the Tory party (Francois, Baker, Bridgen et al) to vote against the government in a confidence motion now.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?

    If so they will be traduced by the public
    No they won't. They would have been if it had been offered at the beginning of the process, not after it had failed.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106
    May supporters on their high horses despite the fact she should have done this over two years ago.
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    dots said:

    dixiedean said:

    Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?

    If so they will be traduced by the public
    In what way? I genuinely don't get it.
    If Corbyn refuses to cooperate he will carry the can
    Some of you have read this very wrong if you think this drops Labour in it. Those of you who say brexiteers won’t be happy are spot on. She’s just clearly said looking for softer brexit and new red lines to get a deal.

    And what’s May’s party going to do now May goes that way? Moves the red lines.

    She’s toast.
    TM had a decision to take and on the biggest one since WW2 she has put the UK interests first

    There will be consequences and for once 'things have changed'
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,202

    She's trying to blame Corbyn for a no deal Brexit and it just won't work. I'm even beginning to be tempted to vote Labour in the next election just to spite her. Just awful.

    For swing voters it may well do, if she puts forward Deal plus Customs Union and Corbyn rejects it, though his backbenchers may rebel and support it
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,912

    stodge said:

    Hearing this on way home. It's rarely a good move for a prime Minister to treat the LOTO as an equal. May is giving Corbyn an authority and a legitimacy he doesn't have currently and doesn't deserve.

    https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/865855578454806529
    That smacks of unqualified desperation.

    We also have this notion of a "short extension" which is throwing it back to the EU once again. The EU will happily agree to extend to 22/5 if we agree the WA but if we don't want to go any further and there's no WA in sight we leave without a WA on 12/4.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    May supporters on their high horses despite the fact she should have done this over two years ago.

    Con MPs had their chance - they blew it.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn needs to be seen walking into No10.

    If he came out of his meeting with May and made a statement on the steps of Downing Street saying her deal should be put to a People's Vote, he'd look like the real PM.
    There is no building in the world he could stand outside and look like a PM.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106

    Jonathan said:

    The one tactical strength she has left is that the Tory Party cannot shift her.

    I expect the shit head wing of the Tory party (Francois, Baker, Bridgen et al) to vote against the government in a confidence motion now.
    Then if Corbyn is clever he should table a VONC now?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,200

    dots said:

    dixiedean said:

    Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?

    If so they will be traduced by the public
    In what way? I genuinely don't get it.
    If Corbyn refuses to cooperate he will carry the can
    Some of you have read this very wrong if you think this drops Labour in it. Those of you who say brexiteers won’t be happy are spot on. She’s just clearly said looking for softer brexit and new red lines to get a deal.

    And what’s May’s party going to do now May goes that way? Moves the red lines.

    She’s toast.
    TM had a decision to take and on the biggest one since WW2 she has put the UK interests first

    There will be consequences and for once 'things have changed'
    She's ducked the real decision, which was to choose between a soft Brexit and a second referendum.
This discussion has been closed.