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  • The more I consider it the more contradictory the statement was:
    I'll talk to Corbyn - he has to agree to my WA
    I'll listen to his ideas about how we move forward together
    I'll hold indicative votes for a way forward
    I'll ask for an extension so we don't have to have an extension

    Her deal will not pass. So she isn't getting the WA passed. She will have to go to Europe armed with what Corbyn / the Commons wants. At which point she has been no confidence by her own MPs thus raising the question as to whether the EU will give her the time of day
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,197
    edited April 2019
    Hilary Benn welcomes May's statement as 'good news' on BBC, said May should have reached out earlier though
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?

    If so they will be traduced by the public
    In what way? I genuinely don't get it.
    If Corbyn refuses to cooperate he will carry the can
    So the PM has had 2 years to sort it, but if JC doesn't, from opposition, in 7 days, it's all his fault?
    It doesn't matter who's fault it is right now, that can come later. Parliament wanted to take control, can they fix it is the key.
    It does matter. The interest in speaking to the LOTO now rather than two years ago is an unsubtle attempt at blame shifting. It is most unlikely to succeed, unless Corbyn is even stupider than is widely supposed.
    Didn't she offer to speak to Corbyn 2 years ago? And his response was "if you want to know what we think read the manifesto"?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Reading her exact words:

    The ideal outcome of this process would be to agree an approach on a future relationship that delivers on the result of the referendum, that both the leader of the opposition and I could put to the House for approval, and which I could then take to next week’s European Council.

    However, if we cannot agree on a single unified approach, then we would instead agree a number of options for the future relationship that we could put to the House in a series of votes to determine which course to pursue. Crucially, the government stands ready to abide by the decision of the House. But, to make this process work, the opposition would need to agree to this too.


    I don't think she expects to reach agreement with Corbyn on the final destination. I think she's trying to edge him into supporting the Withdrawal Agreement with the Letwin process determining the future relationship.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Chris said:

    But that would mean participating in the Euro elections too. Would the Tory party stand for that?
    I don’t think the Conservative party is in mood to put up with surrender to Corbyns CU brexit with a ref on top like a cherry, so its not even getting as far as Euro elections.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Labour will not fall for this. Is this what 7 hours has produced?

    If so they will be traduced by the public
    In what way? I genuinely don't get it.
    If Corbyn refuses to cooperate he will carry the can
    So the PM has had 2 years to sort it, but if JC doesn't, from opposition, in 7 days, it's all his fault?
    It doesn't matter who's fault it is right now, that can come later. Parliament wanted to take control, can they fix it is the key.
    It does matter. The interest in speaking to the LOTO now rather than two years ago is an unsubtle attempt at blame shifting. It is most unlikely to succeed, unless Corbyn is even stupider than is widely supposed.
    I said it doesn't matter right now, not that it doesn't matter. And I stand by that - we'll have decades to talk about blame.
    Oh, I don't think it will take very long for us to settle into a nice protracted blame game, but I take your point. Apologies for misconstruing.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621

    Barnesian said:

    The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.

    The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.

    Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.

    Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
    He's plain wrong!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    VONC tabled by the nutjob wing of the ERG?

    Can only be tabled by the LOTO due to the Fixed term Parliaments act.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:
    "Why don't you tell me what's going on?
    Why don't you tell me who's on the phone?"
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Labour MP on R5 makes a good point. Questions the TV grandstanding, says she knows where Corbyns office is. But No informal contact or talks have happened. Corbyn watched statement on TV. Doubts how serious this is.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    isam said:

    Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.

    Making a couple of hundred posts of incorrect predictions is nothing to cry about Joff!

    Well, we'll see, I guess. But being wrong about Brexit would be absolutely fantastic. And if that means swallowing humble pie about May as the Tories fall apart and the ERG is humiliated, so be it. From reading most of the posts on here, though, it seems I may have completely misunderstood what May said.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    Chris said:

    But that would mean participating in the Euro elections too. Would the Tory party stand for that?
    That's been said about everything that's happened since Chequers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    dots said:

    We still have no word on Cabinet resignations.......

    If she gets cabinet resignations I think that’s in her favour.

    If they don’t resign, that’s ominous, there’s more of them in the room to pick her up and chuck her out the window.

    When did that last happen, was it the Slovak leader in 30 years war?
    I think that the defenestration of the Habsburg envoy was the act that started the 30 year war. His life was saved by a dungheap (or angels if you believe the Hapsburgs!)

    In 1948 the Soviets repeated it on a Czech minister.
  • What time is Mark Francois' inevitable on-air meltdown scheduled for? I don't want to to miss it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    eek said:

    True but unless people resign they implicitly accept it.
    Chequers redux. It will come out later. And in fact we had several Cabinet members explicity against policy back in December.
  • Well, that statement was a waste of air.
    She will ask for a further short extension but without doing the Euro elections.
    The EU will say "No further extension without the Euro elections". Because we could fuck them up by failing to pass the WA and revoking in panic, too late to hold the elections. Regardless of how likely they think it that May would ever revoke, they can't be completely certain she won't.

    Sky reporting EU are content to extend to 22nd May

    Of course post 12th April if we do not take part in the EU elections we are out
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,254
    Jeremy won't fall for this.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Scott_P said:
    I think we know who has put the party in peril and it is not TM
    It certainly is. She has micromanaged everything and expected others just to comply. She has failed to attempt a concensus, lot her majority through her own incompetence and continues to see Brexit as a matter of immigration.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Says something that the thing that will do for May in the end is when she appears to want to compromise (whether she is or not). In that regard, Boles was right.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.

    The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.

    Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.

    Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
    He's plain wrong!
    I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Why is May so desperate to avoid European elections. I mean I know she's crap but what's the specfufc objection to European elections ?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    Pulpstar said:

    Some senior Labour bod now saying Labour has an issue with the WA

    Is there anyone who can put together a Brexit for Dummies by tomorrow morning?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    Xtrain said:

    I've voted Tory all my life and now I just want them to be annihilated!

    Be careful what you wish for.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    dots said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.

    The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.

    Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.

    Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
    He's plain wrong!
    I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
    Yes that is correct.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Well, that statement was a waste of air.
    She will ask for a further short extension but without doing the Euro elections.
    The EU will say "No further extension without the Euro elections". Because we could fuck them up by failing to pass the WA and revoking in panic, too late to hold the elections. Regardless of how likely they think it that May would ever revoke, they can't be completely certain she won't.

    Yes, but even though they probably certainly know that she probably wouldn't, they don't certainly know that although she probably wouldn't, there is no probability that she certainly would.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Scott_P said:
    I think we know who has put the party in peril and it is not TM
    It certainly is. She has micromanaged everything and expected others just to comply. She has failed to attempt a concensus, lot her majority through her own incompetence and continues to see Brexit as a matter of immigration.
    And when she states she wants a consensus (however sincerely) she may be brought down for trying, so exactly how was she supposed to attempt a consensus?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Reading her exact words:

    The ideal outcome of this process would be to agree an approach on a future relationship that delivers on the result of the referendum, that both the leader of the opposition and I could put to the House for approval, and which I could then take to next week’s European Council.

    However, if we cannot agree on a single unified approach, then we would instead agree a number of options for the future relationship that we could put to the House in a series of votes to determine which course to pursue. Crucially, the government stands ready to abide by the decision of the House. But, to make this process work, the opposition would need to agree to this too.


    I don't think she expects to reach agreement with Corbyn on the final destination. I think she's trying to edge him into supporting the Withdrawal Agreement with the Letwin process determining the future relationship.

    Nah, she's trying to get it to a situation where it's her deal Vs her deal with some modifications made by Labour, anticipating that parliament will choose the former. No need to split the WA vote from the PD
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Achieving, what? The same thing as not bringing it down probably.

    Hawkins isn’t right on this. Bring down their own Gov and they saddled with another GE for which they are unprepared and with May still as leader. Not going to happen.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Why is May so desperate to avoid European elections. I mean I know she's crap but what's the specfufc objection to European elections ?

    The optics. I don't think anyone cares which particular nutjobs get packed off to Brussels and Strasbourg, where they can't do any harm other than spend taxpayers' money on moules frites and foie gras.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    dots said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.

    The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.

    Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.

    Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
    He's plain wrong!
    I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
    That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Am I right in concluding: Nothing Has Changed?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Achieving, what? The same thing as not bringing it down probably.

    Hawkins isn’t right on this. Bring down their own Gov and they saddled with another GE for which they are unprepared and with May still as leader. Not going to happen.
    Presumably they would cease to be Tories were they to go nuclear, so they wouldn't be concerned about the Tories fighting an election with May as leader.
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.

    The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.

    Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.

    Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
    He's plain wrong!
    I think I would believe him with his closeness to the EU
  • Pulpstar said:

    Why is May so desperate to avoid European elections. I mean I know she's crap but what's the specfufc objection to European elections ?

    That it becomes a de facto referendum on Brexit.

    Just imagine if parties committed to revoking Article 50 win a majority of the votes/and or seats.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    Reading her exact words:

    The ideal outcome of this process would be to agree an approach on a future relationship that delivers on the result of the referendum, that both the leader of the opposition and I could put to the House for approval, and which I could then take to next week’s European Council.

    However, if we cannot agree on a single unified approach, then we would instead agree a number of options for the future relationship that we could put to the House in a series of votes to determine which course to pursue. Crucially, the government stands ready to abide by the decision of the House. But, to make this process work, the opposition would need to agree to this too.


    I don't think she expects to reach agreement with Corbyn on the final destination. I think she's trying to edge him into supporting the Withdrawal Agreement with the Letwin process determining the future relationship.

    Given how few Tories have been voting "Aye" in the indicative votes, if she really means that, government support could transform quite a narrow victory in an indicative vote now, into quite a substantial majority in favour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited April 2019
    Anger at May is understandable and plenty is justified. But if there are moves toward softer Brexits, well, everyone had a chance to have a harder one earlier and they called it vassalage. Perhaps CU is super duper vassalage?
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    dots said:

    We still have no word on Cabinet resignations.......

    If she gets cabinet resignations I think that’s in her favour.

    If they don’t resign, that’s ominous, there’s more of them in the room to pick her up and chuck her out the window.

    When did that last happen, was it the Slovak leader in 30 years war?
    I think that the defenestration of the Habsburg envoy was the act that started the 30 year war. His life was saved by a dungheap (or angels if you believe the Hapsburgs!)

    In 1948 the Soviets repeated it on a Czech minister.
    Keep watching the Downing Street windows! The Blukip Party is about to blow its head off to stop May’s Labour Brexit 😂
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,197
    dots said:

    Chris said:

    But that would mean participating in the Euro elections too. Would the Tory party stand for that?
    I don’t think the Conservative party is in mood to put up with surrender to Corbyns CU brexit with a ref on top like a cherry, so its not even getting as far as Euro elections.
    Deltapoll on Sunday had Tory voters backing May's Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% and voters as a whole 36% to 29%. Provided the Tories don't revoke I think it is doable without annihilation albeit some Tory Leavers would move to Farage's new Brexit Party
  • Foxy said:

    Am I right in concluding: Nothing Has Changed?
    I think a lot has changed.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Why is May so desperate to avoid European elections. I mean I know she's crap but what's the specfufc objection to European elections ?

    The optics. I don't think anyone cares which particular nutjobs get packed off to Brussels and Strasbourg, where they can't do any harm other than spend taxpayers' money on moules frites and foie gras.
    Agreed. It's the same considerations that has stopped her 'reaching out' to other Parties, notably the Official Opposition, to cobble something acceptable together.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.

    But what is this supposed to achieve? Assuming that the EU grants the extension, talks with Corbyn will achieve nothing. How this will most likely end is with a few weeks of can-kicking, followed by yet another attempt to get the Withdrawal Agreement to pass.

    I'm very sceptical about this. My husband, on the other hand, thinks that after the talks with Corbyn fail, this will end with a Government-sponsored round of indicative votes and Deal+CU will eventually pass. We'll see which, if either, of us is right. Eventually.

    As I say in another post, I am probably being incredibly naive, but I heard her ruling out No Deal. If that has happened we are going to get a softer Brexit and in the absence of us staying in the EU - which is out of the question - that is very good news.

    She clearly indicated that she didn't want No Deal, but unless or until a Deal is passed then that continues to be the default position at the end of the process. The only other means to avoid No Deal are, of course, to abandon Brexit altogether or to can-kick.

    At the moment, it looks like the Government is going to attempt to kick the can. What I'm concerned about is that the EU may not only let them do it, but insist on a fairly long extension - to clarify the position re: the European elections, by obliging us to take part in them. I was prepared to countenance the possibility of a second referendum, as nasty as it would be, to achieve some sort of resolution to (this phase of) the Brexit process, but European elections would be a pointless fist-fight, pure and simple. And I'm really not sure this is what the country needs right now.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Pulpstar said:

    Why is May so desperate to avoid European elections. I mean I know she's crap but what's the specfufc objection to European elections ?

    That it becomes a de facto referendum on Brexit.

    Just imagine if parties committed to revoking Article 50 win a majority of the votes/and or seats.
    If - given that the only revoke parties are the Lib Dems and Change alongside the SNP in Scotland I expect it's highly likely....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,197

    isam said:

    Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.

    Making a couple of hundred posts of incorrect predictions is nothing to cry about Joff!

    Well, we'll see, I guess. But being wrong about Brexit would be absolutely fantastic. And if that means swallowing humble pie about May as the Tories fall apart and the ERG is humiliated, so be it. From reading most of the posts on here, though, it seems I may have completely misunderstood what May said.

    May could be the new Sir Robert Peel or Ramsay MacDonald, having said she will not contest another general election once she gets a Deal through she has clearly decided to leave as a stateswomam and appeal to the country even if it annoys much of her party
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    eek said:

    I'm surprised no one has posted this obvious issue
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1113128729885147137

    Quite.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    I’m very disappointed in Douglas Carswell.

    I expected him to act more like Michael Gove not Steve Baker.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,197
    BBC news says Leadsom, Truss and Williamson the biggest Cabinet opponents of a lengthy extension
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    As Dom Cummings blogged this week - a competent govt won’t be permanently bound by any of this.

    Corbyn would be a fool to go near this.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Well, that statement was a waste of air.
    She will ask for a further short extension but without doing the Euro elections.
    The EU will say "No further extension without the Euro elections". Because we could fuck them up by failing to pass the WA and revoking in panic, too late to hold the elections. Regardless of how likely they think it that May would ever revoke, they can't be completely certain she won't.

    Sky reporting EU are content to extend to 22nd May

    Of course post 12th April if we do not take part in the EU elections we are out
    They'll extend to 22 May IF we've sorted out some Withdrawal Agreement by the time May turns up at the summit in April.

    Otherwise, they're gambling too much. If they give us to late May, we fail to be ready, and the PM (not necessarily May) revokes at that point, they can't refuse to let us stay.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pity the poor Con local councillors up for election - a hammering awaits.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.

    The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.

    Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.

    Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
    He's plain wrong!
    SKY presenters are dunderheids, you could pick anyone off the street who would know more than the tossers they have as presenters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    Hilary Benn welcomes May's statement as 'good news' on BBC, said May should have reached out earlier though

    That's actually tenatively positive given what I expected and given I do think this is mainly about May blaming Corbyn for no deal.

    The cynic in me says Benn is saying that because he is confident May willbe gone soon because no way she carries the Tories through this - it took 7 hours to get presumably most of the Cabinet on board, and there are probably resignations to come - and she cannot devote that time to the loyal troops, let along the ERGers who took months and months to come around to her WA, reluctantly, let alone something softer.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Foxy said:

    Am I right in concluding: Nothing Has Changed?
    No .... :smile:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TGOHF said:

    Pity the poor Con local councillors up for election - a hammering awaits.

    It's time for that anyway 9 years into a tory led government.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    BBC news says Leadsom, Truss and Williamson the biggest Cabinet opponents of a lengthy extension

    And besides no deal, how is one avoided?
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Good move by May. Flushes Labour out, could actually get sensible way forward. Worst case is her deal versus Corbyn in indicative vote, if Corbyn's approach gets fewer votes there is still pressure on Labour to not block WA. Labour approach also less likely to appeal to swing voters and their leaver base in Midlands and North.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,812
    If we had politicians as transparently decent as Tusk or as skillful as Michel Barnier we'd be in a much better place, in fact probably not be Brexiting at all. I never thought EU membership made us a colony, but I'd happily be an EU colony right now. We can't govern ourselves.
  • Xtrain said:

    I've voted Tory all my life and now I just want them to be annihilated!

    Be careful what you wish for.
    I've rarely voted Tory but I certainly don't want them annihilated. It may well happen though. If Labour were stronger, I think the likelihood would be considerable; as it is, the Tories may make themselves so unpopular that do get hammered regardless.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Foxy said:

    Am I right in concluding: Nothing Has Changed?
    Yes. Theresa May will sit down with Jeremy Corbyn to agree ... oh, hold on, but the WA is not included in May's offer.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Barnesian said:

    dots said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.

    The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.

    Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.

    Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
    He's plain wrong!
    I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
    That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.
    It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.

    Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Achieving, what? The same thing as not bringing it down probably.

    Hawkins isn’t right on this. Bring down their own Gov and they saddled with another GE for which they are unprepared and with May still as leader. Not going to happen.
    Presumably they would cease to be Tories were they to go nuclear, so they wouldn't be concerned about the Tories fighting an election with May as leader.
    I think they are. They want Brexit, they want the Tory Party, and they want power. What they don’t want is either a split party or a GE.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    I think there's some confusion on the EU's attitude to an extension. There are two separate kinds of possible extension:

    1. If we have ratified the Withdrawal Agreement, then they'd be happy to extend until 22nd May, because they'd know for sure that we were actually going to leave on the agreed date and therefore wouldn't get tangled up in the EU elections. (This is what they already agreed to with a deadline of last Friday to accept it, but they can wait a few more days if they see that the WA is about to be ratified).

    2. If we haven't ratified the Withdrawal Agreement, then any extension past the already agreed 12th April has to be a long one, with a commitment to take part in the European elections.
  • HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.

    Making a couple of hundred posts of incorrect predictions is nothing to cry about Joff!

    Well, we'll see, I guess. But being wrong about Brexit would be absolutely fantastic. And if that means swallowing humble pie about May as the Tories fall apart and the ERG is humiliated, so be it. From reading most of the posts on here, though, it seems I may have completely misunderstood what May said.

    May could be the new Sir Robert Peel or Ramsay MacDonald, having said she will not contest another general election once she gets a Deal through she has clearly decided to leave as a stateswomam and appeal to the country even if it annoys much of her party
    Yes, she has decided that if a government of national unity is needed she may as well head it herself.

    Problem with your cabinet? Lock them away, confiscate their phones and not mention them whilst you pledge to work cross party to come up with an option to present together. Problem with your party? Ignore their views and announce that you will accept whatever the Commons agrees knowing your party will be in the No lobby of whatever that happens to be.

    She has today ceased to lead the Conservative Party and has instead decided to oppose it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,197
    dots said:

    Barnesian said:

    dots said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.

    The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.

    Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.

    Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
    He's plain wrong!
    I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
    That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.
    It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.

    Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.
    Deltapoll at the weekend had Tory voters backing Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% but Labour voters only backing it 35% to 31%, this could yet be a shrewd move by May if it leads to extension then Deal plus Customs Union passing the Commons
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Pretty close to previously mooted numbers. Worst possible for May, since they are split down the middle, pretty much.

    No way she can get something like this through, if she cannot get half the Cabinet to back she probably cannot get 1/4 of the party.
  • Foxy said:

    Am I right in concluding: Nothing Has Changed?
    Yes. Theresa May will sit down with Jeremy Corbyn to agree ... oh, hold on, but the WA is not included in May's offer.
    The WDA is not open for discussion even if TM and Corbyn wanted to. The EU have repeated the WDA will not be negotiated, ad infinitum
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    eek said:

    I'm surprised no one has posted this obvious issue
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1113128729885147137

    Quite.
    Were neither of you listening when she explicitly set out what the procedure would be in that case? In fact I'm sure she fully expects there to be no agreement
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    I thought the whole point of appointing Williamson to cabinet was because he’s her pet loyalist? There’s no other reason to have him in is there
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,197
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC news says Leadsom, Truss and Williamson the biggest Cabinet opponents of a lengthy extension

    And besides no deal, how is one avoided?
    Precisely
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think we know who has put the party in peril and it is not TM
    It certainly is. She has micromanaged everything and expected others just to comply. She has failed to attempt a concensus, lot her majority through her own incompetence and continues to see Brexit as a matter of immigration.
    And when she states she wants a consensus (however sincerely) she may be brought down for trying, so exactly how was she supposed to attempt a consensus?

    This isn’t about trying to build concensus. They are not going to agree anything. This is about trying to shift some of the blame for a deal not being made to Corbyn before a GE.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited April 2019
    The Cabinet met for 7 hours.!!!!!!

    And the upshot was they're going to kick the can by begging for another extension and then they'll get Jezza to tell them what to do. :D:D:D
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I've repeatedly said on here that No Deal isn't going to happen. Doesn't matter how many times people say it could happen, it won't.

    Anyway, the loons on the hard right won't be happy.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    eek said:

    I'm surprised no one has posted this obvious issue
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1113128729885147137

    Quite.
    Were neither of you listening when she explicitly set out what the procedure would be in that case? In fact I'm sure she fully expects there to be no agreement
    So we end up with the turd of a customs union ? Great.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.

    Making a couple of hundred posts of incorrect predictions is nothing to cry about Joff!

    Well, we'll see, I guess. But being wrong about Brexit would be absolutely fantastic. And if that means swallowing humble pie about May as the Tories fall apart and the ERG is humiliated, so be it. From reading most of the posts on here, though, it seems I may have completely misunderstood what May said.

    Always a get out, love it!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,197

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.

    Making a couple of hundred posts of incorrect predictions is nothing to cry about Joff!

    Well, we'll see, I guess. But being wrong about Brexit would be absolutely fantastic. And if that means swallowing humble pie about May as the Tories fall apart and the ERG is humiliated, so be it. From reading most of the posts on here, though, it seems I may have completely misunderstood what May said.

    May could be the new Sir Robert Peel or Ramsay MacDonald, having said she will not contest another general election once she gets a Deal through she has clearly decided to leave as a stateswomam and appeal to the country even if it annoys much of her party
    Yes, she has decided that if a government of national unity is needed she may as well head it herself.

    Problem with your cabinet? Lock them away, confiscate their phones and not mention them whilst you pledge to work cross party to come up with an option to present together. Problem with your party? Ignore their views and announce that you will accept whatever the Commons agrees knowing your party will be in the No lobby of whatever that happens to be.

    She has today ceased to lead the Conservative Party and has instead decided to oppose it.
    Indeed, Peel was succeeded as Tory leader by the protectionist Lord Derby but he got his repeal of the Corn Laws through beforehand
  • Watched the Cabinet Ministers leaving No. 10 and as far as I could see, there was a lot of suppressed anger getting into their ministerial cars. Think she tried to grind them down over the 7 hours, and it didn't work.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    I think there's some confusion on the EU's attitude to an extension. There are two separate kinds of possible extension:

    1. If we have ratified the Withdrawal Agreement, then they'd be happy to extend until 22nd May, because they'd know for sure that we were actually going to leave on the agreed date and therefore wouldn't get tangled up in the EU elections. (This is what they already agreed to with a deadline of last Friday to accept it, but they can wait a few more days if they see that the WA is about to be ratified).

    2. If we haven't ratified the Withdrawal Agreement, then any extension past the already agreed 12th April has to be a long one, with a commitment to take part in the European elections.

    Is there any dummy out there who did not understand that was the case.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why is May so desperate to avoid European elections. I mean I know she's crap but what's the specfufc objection to European elections ?

    That it becomes a de facto referendum on Brexit.

    Just imagine if parties committed to revoking Article 50 win a majority of the votes/and or seats.
    If - given that the only revoke parties are the Lib Dems and Change alongside the SNP in Scotland I expect it's highly likely....
    Meaning unlikely? But the election is completely decoupled from real life, because who our meps were made the squaqre root of bugger all difference even if we were members. I would certainly vote for a revoke party absolutely irrespective of its other policies. It would be a perfect proxy for a people's vote and I would expect the Lib Dejms to campaign on that basis.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    HYUFD said:

    dots said:

    Barnesian said:

    dots said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.

    The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.

    Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.

    Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
    He's plain wrong!
    I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
    That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.
    It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.

    Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.
    Deltapoll at the weekend had Tory voters backing Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% but Labour voters only backing it 35% to 31%, this could yet be a shrewd move by May if it leads to extension then Deal plus Customs Union passing the Commons
    Are you trolling me with your flimsy delta poll?

    It’s going to take more than that poll to save her.

    14 cabinet ministers and 200 MPs against this, and that’s the remainery end of the party 😄
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think we know who has put the party in peril and it is not TM
    It certainly is. She has micromanaged everything and expected others just to comply. She has failed to attempt a concensus, lot her majority through her own incompetence and continues to see Brexit as a matter of immigration.
    And when she states she wants a consensus (however sincerely) she may be brought down for trying, so exactly how was she supposed to attempt a consensus?

    This isn’t about trying to build concensus. They are not going to agree anything. This is about trying to shift some of the blame for a deal not being made to Corbyn before a GE.
    Yes I know, that's why I added the part about sincerity. The point was that her own party will probably be apoplectic at the idea it is sincere, which shows why she hsa not tried for consensus, because her party will go ballistic.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Very smart from May - and exactly the right thing to do. I am actually a little bit emotional. She has put the country first.

    Making a couple of hundred posts of incorrect predictions is nothing to cry about Joff!

    Well, we'll see, I guess. But being wrong about Brexit would be absolutely fantastic. And if that means swallowing humble pie about May as the Tories fall apart and the ERG is humiliated, so be it. From reading most of the posts on here, though, it seems I may have completely misunderstood what May said.

    Always a get out, love it!

    Happy to be of service.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,197
    edited April 2019
    MaxPB said:

    Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?

    It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Were neither of you listening when she explicitly set out what the procedure would be in that case? In fact I'm sure she fully expects there to be no agreement

    Agreed. Corbyn won't be able to walk out again, after the fuss last time caused, but he'll escape entanglement by simply demanding something ridiculous/unicornish. Nothing has really changed from his viewpoint - he wants a no-deal Brexit because of the electoral damage it'll cause the Tories.

    Thus, the rest of her statement is what really matters, in particular the new willingness to be bound be indicative vote outcomes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?

    It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
    They have been remarkably faithful to the whip, on passing the WA at least. On that, nothing has changed.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    I think there's some confusion on the EU's attitude to an extension. There are two separate kinds of possible extension:

    1. If we have ratified the Withdrawal Agreement, then they'd be happy to extend until 22nd May, because they'd know for sure that we were actually going to leave on the agreed date and therefore wouldn't get tangled up in the EU elections. (This is what they already agreed to with a deadline of last Friday to accept it, but they can wait a few more days if they see that the WA is about to be ratified).

    2. If we haven't ratified the Withdrawal Agreement, then any extension past the already agreed 12th April has to be a long one, with a commitment to take part in the European elections.

    When I was listening I did not think the language about 22nd May was that clear-cut. It might be worth rereading, but it seemed to me there was a little bit of wriggle room built in. I felt "should" was doing a fair bit of work.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,197
    kle4 said:

    Pretty close to previously mooted numbers. Worst possible for May, since they are split down the middle, pretty much.

    No way she can get something like this through, if she cannot get half the Cabinet to back she probably cannot get 1/4 of the party.
    1/4 to 1/3 Of the party would be enough if most Labour MPs back it and the SNP and LDs abstain.

    Deal plus Customs Union Only gets through with Labour MPs votes, most Tory MPs will vote against it
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think we know who has put the party in peril and it is not TM
    It certainly is. She has micromanaged everything and expected others just to comply. She has failed to attempt a concensus, lot her majority through her own incompetence and continues to see Brexit as a matter of immigration.
    And when she states she wants a consensus (however sincerely) she may be brought down for trying, so exactly how was she supposed to attempt a consensus?

    This isn’t about trying to build concensus. They are not going to agree anything. This is about trying to shift some of the blame for a deal not being made to Corbyn before a GE.
    Yes I know, that's why I added the part about sincerity. The point was that her own party will probably be apoplectic at the idea it is sincere, which shows why she hsa not tried for consensus, because her party will go ballistic.
    Not convinced. An election is almost inevitable. Tories are buying time to prepare. Her party will only only go ballistic if there is an election with May still leader.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So the two current politicians least attuned to compromise are getting in a room together to compromise. I have concerns.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    So essentially the upshot is noone still has a fucking clue what's going on?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Foxy said:

    Am I right in concluding: Nothing Has Changed?
    Yes. Theresa May will sit down with Jeremy Corbyn to agree ... oh, hold on, but the WA is not included in May's offer.
    I think we have had that plan before. May doesn't do compromise, she thinks it means having her own way.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?

    It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
    Can’t see them backing her in the VONC which is coming soon.

    She’s done - stick a fork in her.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited April 2019
    Sod looking at Gove. Look at the political cabinet discussing election risks, and look at Hammond.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?

    It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
    They have been remarkably faithful to the whip, on passing the WA at least. On that, nothing has changed.
    The Labour whipping operation has been excellent, given the doubts and divisions they have stuck together when it matters. Corbyn owes Brown a lot.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think we know who has put the party in peril and it is not TM
    It certainly is. She has micromanaged everything and expected others just to comply. She has failed to attempt a concensus, lot her majority through her own incompetence and continues to see Brexit as a matter of immigration.
    And when she states she wants a consensus (however sincerely) she may be brought down for trying, so exactly how was she supposed to attempt a consensus?

    This isn’t about trying to build concensus. They are not going to agree anything. This is about trying to shift some of the blame for a deal not being made to Corbyn before a GE.
    Yes I know, that's why I added the part about sincerity. The point was that her own party will probably be apoplectic at the idea it is sincere, which shows why she hsa not tried for consensus, because her party will go ballistic.
    Not convinced. An election is almost inevitable. Tories are buying time to prepare. Her party will only only go ballistic if there is an election with May still leader.
    The damage to the party may already be done by the time she goes.
This discussion has been closed.