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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So TIG becomes Change UK in time for the possible Euro Electio
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So TIG becomes Change UK in time for the possible Euro Elections
One of he potentially big developments that came out at the end of last week was the decision by the Independent Group to seek registration as an official party under the name of Change UK.
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If we have Euro Elections, they'll need to form a joint slate with the Lib Dems, otherwise, there's a risk that each party will slip below the threshold needed to elect an MEP in any particular region.
BTW, it's Brecon & Radnor, not Brechin.
Are both ultimately hoping to take over the other? A new party could quite like to grab the apparatus and activist base of an existing one, whereas the incumbents might be up for nipping a rival for their space in the bud and try grafting some of their freshness and political momentum.
A face-off with a test of strength might not be something to shy away from if their leadership is confident they will gain an advantage over the other. And a "lost cause" in which they can point to a seat that would have been won other than for their internecine squabbling would be good ammunition to press for a merger/takeover.
Not the way things would work in an ideal world, but anyone who decides to stand down to support the others at this early stage in Change's existence, might as well give up and accept inevitable takeover already. (As SeanF says, a joint slate might make sense for the Euros. But for a by-election?)
They might as well use whilst they can
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/change-org-to-challenge-new-political-party-over-use-of-change-uk-name/
Am beginning to think passing TMs Deal may turn out to be the worst possible result for the government. All other scenarios, and blame can be deflected. Especially, as the government may well fall, leaving another to deal with the fall out. In that one, you still have a fractured, resentful Party, still in power, with no one else to shoulder the responsibility.
And no solution to the fundamental problem...we don't know what future relationship we want.
Theyre the more of the same party
https://www.kent.house/uk-petition-article-50-hijacked-by-bots/
As I thought, it isn't particularly hard. The only surprise is that it took them as long as 3 hours...
They are another Remain Party (like the LDs)
They are anti Corbyn (like most people)
Some of them have a real persona animus towards Theresa May
But they have not articulated a single positive thing since they came together into this rag bag of egos and non-entities
They haven't said what they want to change or how they will go about changing it
They signify nothing as far as I am concerned
By the way, I wonder whether Jacob Rees Mogg had a withdrawal agreement with his wife that he regularly reneged upon? I am reluctantly voting in favour of this withdrawal agreement tonight dear...oh dear so sorry .
Plus also the normal Blairite changes for the little people - NHS charges, parental fines if your child picks their nose, etc - but trebles all round for the upper middle class upwards.
After all, we know that there is nothing that a true Briton dislikes more than change, as all change is for the worse.
I'm going to vote for the craziest shithouse rat on the ballot paper if we have to have elections.
Corbyn, of course, hasn't read the WA and probably wouldn't understand it if he tried. Poor lamb
But its not about people its about the policies, from what I have seen to date they want to pick up from whgere we left off in 2016. Something I view as wishful thinking.
On Europe I will be intrigued to see what their view is -will they go the whole hog and stand on integration, the euro and Schengen or will they go for the same old half in half out shtick the UK has pursued for years ?
How can Labour MPs possibly justify that? It's now end of the line, with two choices. Parliamentary games from now on will have consequences.
The left hand doesn't know or understand what the Left Hand is doing.
No doubt, the TIGs will be given preferential treatment though.
We are aware that the Cuk Tiggers are going nowhere in the polls, right? Their average during March was 6%, with one poll putting them as low as 2%.
Far from challenging the big two, it's not even clear they would get more votes than the Greens or Ukip in any election.
The rest of their programme can do one as far as I can tell.
Sorry to disagree old bean, but "the Establishment", if such a thing really exists, is very much about people. Boris Johnson is a classic example of an establishment figure doing contortions of mendacity to appeal to any group that might enable him to have his sweaty, podgy hands on the levers of power.
Otherwise, I'd be forced to conclude that you really weren't asking your question in good faith at all, and actually it was a pretty pathetic attempt at spin by playing dumb about why tactically voting through the WA would run totally counter to Labour's goal of changing the PD. And I'd hate to think ill of you!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/mps-seek-to-stop-no-deal-brexit-by-tabling-article-50-bill
Surely again, May could just come forward with some nonsense that the EU won't agree to and therefore again default no-deal Brexit.
The balance is held by 10 DUP, 11 TIG, and 11 Independents.
I expect Hermon, Woodcock, and Lewis would vote with the government, and Austin would abstain.
That and the threat of a Cabinet revolt would have a chance of something acceptable to the EU being proposed.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/01/biden-1246920
I'll repost my comments on FOBTs from the previous thread later on as everyone seems interested in only one thing currently and I can't imagine why.
As an LD, I've no problem with Change UK though it will as always be difficult for some constituency parties and individuals to co-operate with them. TBH, if Change UK wanted to stand in East Ham instead of the LDs, I wouldn't lose any sleep (I shouldn't imagine Stephen Timms with his wafer-thin 40,000 majority would either).
If we don't know what Change UK stands for, I'm also trying to figure out what is an "Independent Progressive Conservative"?
It's a Labour elephant trap to a general election.
It would then be a Trump v Sanders general election, both candidates over 70
We will make our contributions plus a bit more to cover the interim period which shall be used to prepare for life after Brexit on both sides.
Then stand down.
https://sdp.org.uk/policies/brexit/
("In the absence of a better offer from the EU, we support a WTO Brexit.")
I think the SDP and the Liberal Party should merge! Wonder what they would call themselves?
There's a vulnerability for people who wish to sign 2/3/4 times (easy enough given home/mobile IPs), and plenty will be doing this, but that's not going to be more than a million of the signatures at most.
The real weakness would be against botnets. Different IP every one, and if they could be bothered, get hold of lots of names/postcodes in roughly the correct leave/remain distribution. Not at all difficult, and basically no way to detect or defend against it.
Is Tiger Roll as good as all that ? Perhaps a straight lay on the Betfair exchanges is 'the bet'...
I can see the Tories and Labour may not want them - but that is another matter.
The WA passes.
Or no deal.
Every chance we will participate after a long unwanted extension is forced down our throats by wrecker MPs.
The CHangeUKAlliance - or Chuka for short?
Has Change UK been clear about what it wants to change - because it seems to be very much the status quo party that doesn't really want to change anything much.
Getting a Commons majority for it; then a May proposal (as amended) which the Commons backs; then persuading the EU that it constitutes "a plan" by next Wed feels like a tall order given everyone's track record so far.
I guess we get Lab whipping for; Tories against (?) (for what it's worth nowadays). But I'd have thought there'll be a substantial Commons voice arguing this isn't great law/not prescriptive enough/doesn't move us on from indicative votes - ie it leaves it entirely undecided as to what the will of the Commons is apart from "not this".