It's been a curious feature of PB for the last 15 years that posters on PB always predict an early GE.
There must have been many hundreds of posts in the last few weeks all predicting an early / imminent GE - and not one single post predicting there won't be an early GE.
Yet the actual odds on a 2019 GE currently show it as odds against. And that's for the whole of 2019.
Now I don't know what will happen - and of course there may well be a 2019 GE. But's an interesting example of how minds work - I think it's just another example of people posting what they want to happen / what they think "should" happen - and then dressing it up as a prediction.
I certainly WANT a General Election. I love them. I stay up all night. Throw pillows at the telly. Eat pizza. They're good fun.
Now, do I predict a route to a General Election - I can certainly see one, and not unrealistic given the political atmosphere we live in.
In 2010, I was rather upset when the Election weekend was over, as I believed it'd be another five years before the next election. I was right. In 2015, I thought it would be another five years, though I did think "Well, at least there is the referendum to look forward to."
Today, I struggle to see how a divided, minority administration, in the middle of the biggest political crisis since 1945 and with only 313 out of the 642 attending MPs can survive another three years. Things change by the day at the moment, from Bercow blocking votes, to members of the Government advocating a policy before voting against it, to factions (and I mean factionS) within the governing party advocating completely polar opposites of government policy.
I don't think it unreasonable to expect a General Election sometime this year.
Oh sure - there is obviously a very good chance of a 2019 GE - I'm just noting the disparity between what is constantly posted on here and the actual odds.
To put the other side of the coin - the Govt survived the last confidence vote by 19 - a significant margin. Since then the Govt's position may have actually improved - the 3 Con defectors to TIG are very unlikely to vote against Govt (Heidi Allen specifically said she would vote for Govt) - and there must be a reasonable chance the 8 Lab defectors to TIG won't either (as they would most likely just be voting to lose their jobs).
Thinking on Lamb's comments and if he were to go independent, while we decry the parties for being too dominating and people being too sheeplike, they do serve a useful purpose and a parliament of literal independents would be a recipe for disaster on everything, not just Brexit. That being said, there being such a large number of independents right now is good, for those who have done it for policy reasons, because in a time of crisis on such a major issue there should be splits and breaks from the main parties, it is absurd that discipline has held up so well on this issue.
SURELY even she won't come out and give the same speech as ever - surely something of substance will have changed this time?
I expect all the scowls reflect the fact that she is indeed going to deliver exactly the same speech again.
Why? Seriously, what would that accomplish?
Anything she says about parliament failing to find a consensus either will just be used by disingenuous MPs like Nandy to claim they were just on the verge of backing her deal but then she was rude to them, or something.
Thinking on Lamb's comments and if he were to go independent, while we decry the parties for being too dominating and people being too sheeplike, they do serve a useful purpose and a parliament of literal independents would be a recipe for disaster on everything, not just Brexit. That being said, there being such a large number of independents right now is good, for those who have done it for policy reasons, because in a time of crisis on such a major issue there should be splits and breaks from the main parties, it is absurd that discipline has held up so well on this issue.
No one could ever accuse Lamb of being sheeplike, surely?
SURELY even she won't come out and give the same speech as ever - surely something of substance will have changed this time?
I expect all the scowls reflect the fact that she is indeed going to deliver exactly the same speech again.
Why? Seriously, what would that accomplish?
Anything she says about parliament failing to find a consensus either will just be used by disingenuous MPs like Nandy to claim they were just on the verge of backing her deal but then she was rude to them, or something.
Lisa Nandy will hum and haw again regardless. She's already shown herself to be once, twice, three times a maybe.
You're joking. If there are more why not this week?!
I think the intention is to combine motion for a Customs Union, with a motion for a Second Referendum, although I would think that would automatically lose Kenneth Clarke's support.
I don't see how the Prime Minister could begin to square that with the emphatic instructions repeatedly given by Parliament that there should not be no deal.
They ought to consider that many vegans do not want to eat a facsimilie of bleeding meat!
If it is just a facsimilie what would be the problem? The more meatlike it seems the more non vegans might eat it too, better for them and the planet surely? Granted I am not a vegan, but putting up with something that looks meat like seems pretty low on the list of burdens to face, vs not being able to find anything on the menu but meat.
You're joking. If there are more why not this week?!
I think the intention is to combine motion for a Customs Union, with a motion for a Second Referendum, although I would think that would automatically lose Kenneth Clarke's support.
Sure, but why cannot that be done tomorrow, or thursday, or friday?
I don't see how the Prime Minister could begin to square that with the emphatic instructions repeatedly given by Parliament that there should not be no deal.
Parliament doesn't know what it wants, screw them. May be her attitude.
I don't see how the Prime Minister could begin to square that with the emphatic instructions repeatedly given by Parliament that there should not be no deal.
Parliament doesn't know what it wants, screw them. May be her attitude.
Yeah, but the phrase "contempt of Parliament" does hang over that attitude and might have repercussions.
They ought to consider that many vegans do not want to eat a facsimilie of bleeding meat!
If it is just a facsimilie what would be the problem? The more meatlike it seems the more non vegans might eat it too, better for them and the planet surely? Granted I am not a vegan, but putting up with something that looks meat like seems pretty low on the list of burdens to face, vs not being able to find anything on the menu but meat.
You're joking. If there are more why not this week?!
I think the intention is to combine motion for a Customs Union, with a motion for a Second Referendum, although I would think that would automatically lose Kenneth Clarke's support.
Sure, but why cannot that be done tomorrow, or thursday, or friday?
It is not a deal breaker, but many vegans do not like the taste of meat.
It is hard to make tasty vegeburgers as there needs to be a higher fat content, but linda macartneys are good. BK spicy Beanburger is pretty good, far superior to the mcdonalds version.
Makes sense. The commons, by persistently voting against everything, has effectively chosen no-deal since it's the legal default. The executive now has to decide a practical method of implementing that, and doing it over weeks makes no sense. Two years, perhaps.
If the HoC doesn't like it, it can vote _for_ another approach.
I don't see how the Prime Minister could begin to square that with the emphatic instructions repeatedly given by Parliament that there should not be no deal.
Or the equally emphatic pronouncements from the EU that they won't allow further delays without a clear plan. Although I guess they're bluffing on that, but they may not be.
I don't see how the Prime Minister could begin to square that with the emphatic instructions repeatedly given by Parliament that there should not be no deal.
Parliament doesn't know what it wants, screw them. May be her attitude.
Yeah, but the phrase "contempt of Parliament" does hang over that attitude and might have repercussions.
Oh I agree, but I think we can all see May is at her wits end. She doesn't know what to do, and hasn't the authority to do anything if she did, or lacks the political capital to do it even when she has the authority. Parliament and government is going bonkers - people talking about the Queen refusing royal assent, trying to rush through legislation in a day or mere days, each side acting like they won the day when they didn't (Letwin and Cooper seem to think something passed for instance).
I'm more and more convinced she wanted something to win out yesterday and is spitting mad nothing did, because the ball is back in her court.
You're joking. If there are more why not this week?!
I think the intention is to combine motion for a Customs Union, with a motion for a Second Referendum, although I would think that would automatically lose Kenneth Clarke's support.
'Sure, but why cannot that be done tomorrow, or thursday, or friday?'
Because that would be too bloody sensible. Get with the program!
Re the headline story - hugely ironical because they are actually "No Change UK" - Labour under Corbyn and Brexit Tory Party represent change. They mean "Change" in the Obama sense - all talk and no action Sorry if it has been said before
You're joking. If there are more why not this week?!
I think the intention is to combine motion for a Customs Union, with a motion for a Second Referendum, although I would think that would automatically lose Kenneth Clarke's support.
'Sure, but why cannot that be done tomorrow, or thursday, or friday?'
Because that would be too bloody sensible. Get with the program!
You're joking. If there are more why not this week?!
The no deal bill is for this week
You mean the EU Withdrawal (Can-Kicking) Bill? Even if Parliament passes it and May goes along with it, hopefully the EU27 will tell her to sod off.
We are well past the point at which some kind of decision should be expected from our rotten, useless leaders.
If the Peoples' Vote lot could bring themselves to vote for a Customs Union Brexit, there's a good chance it would win an overall majority among MP's. If a CU Brexit is made subject to a second referendum, then I think it gains and loses about the same number of supporters.
I think May's plan for today was totally buggered up by all four options being defeated yesterday. Her supposedly ready-made excuse for giving up evaporated.
Re the headline story - hugely ironical because they are actually "No Change UK" - Labour under Corbyn and Brexit Tory Party represent change. They mean "Change" in the Obama sense - all talk and no action Sorry if it has been said before
It's worth saying again. It's not a terrible name, but it is pretty funny in that regard.
Still, if they were ever in government in would neuter the standard opposition cry of "It's time for Change"
Nothing much in an agenda of continued EU membership, higher taxes and higher Gov spending that is remotely unique. They could have joined the LibDems or joined/stayed in Labour with that agenda.
Well, gym, and the rolling text on BBC News kept saying Toadies instead of Tories. Sentences like -
"Much discussion as whether the Toadies will be blamed for a No Deal Brexit." "Nobody appears to want to compromise. Not the TIGs, not Labour, not the Toadies." "Highly unlikely that there will be an election until there is a new Toady leader."
It was very hard not to laugh. In fact I didn't manage it.
I think May's plan for today was totally buggered up by all four options being defeated yesterday. Her supposedly ready-made excuse for giving up evaporated.
Letwin willbe off the christmas card list - went to all that trouble to take the power away from the incompetent government, then couldn't get anything done with it (yet) so just presses on, evaporating the reasoning for there being indicative votes at all.
SURELY even she won't come out and give the same speech as ever - surely something of substance will have changed this time?
I expect all the scowls reflect the fact that she is indeed going to deliver exactly the same speech again.
Why? Seriously, what would that accomplish?
Anything she says about parliament failing to find a consensus either will just be used by disingenuous MPs like Nandy to claim they were just on the verge of backing her deal but then she was rude to them, or something.
Lisa Nandy will hum and haw again regardless. She's already shown herself to be once, twice, three times a maybe.
She looks like a Simpson's character who is always on the verge of tears
He might be right, but he whinging is a bit much when his main gripe seems to be that others won't do as he says, which is the same moan as the government.
Re the headline story - hugely ironical because they are actually "No Change UK" - Labour under Corbyn and Brexit Tory Party represent change. They mean "Change" in the Obama sense - all talk and no action Sorry if it has been said before
It's worth saying again. It's not a terrible name, but it is pretty funny in that regard.
Still, if they were ever in government in would neuter the standard opposition cry of "It's time for Change"
Maybe we should amuse ourselves by thinking up what slogan the Tories might run under for their next GE campaign? "Rising from the Ruins", perhaps?
I really hope that she has a very long statement. These 2 minute deals for the 10pm news just annoy MPs and journalists, she should set out in great detail what is going on. What harm could it do?
He might be right, but he whinging is a bit much when his main gripe seems to be that others won't do as he says, which is the same moan as the government.
He'd have more of a point if the government had whipped against the motion he proposed. Instead, he failed to persuade his colleagues (and hardline remainers of its merits).
Re the headline story - hugely ironical because they are actually "No Change UK" - Labour under Corbyn and Brexit Tory Party represent change. They mean "Change" in the Obama sense - all talk and no action Sorry if it has been said before
It's worth saying again. It's not a terrible name, but it is pretty funny in that regard.
Still, if they were ever in government in would neuter the standard opposition cry of "It's time for Change"
Maybe we should amuse ourselves by thinking up what slogan the Tories might run under for their next GE campaign? "Rising from the Ruins", perhaps?
Fab interview with Nick Boles. They should have chosen him as next leader. He actually sounded genuine.
(Well done to Laura K who did the interview)
PS. Can anyone argue with his thought that NO ONE who served in the Cabinet from 2017 till the present should be next Tory leader or that May's Cabinet is the worst in living memory.
Sky reporting the Letwin/Cooper bill, if it gets through the HOC it will need the HOL to sit on friday at which time it is open to amendments, and it is likely brexiteers will table many
I don't see how the Prime Minister could begin to square that with the emphatic instructions repeatedly given by Parliament that there should not be no deal.
Mayhap she will argue that with more preparation more MPs will accept no deal?
In any case, no deal is a bit like gravity. Eventually it will assert itself if you fail to take effective countermeasures.
Comments
The Entire Day.
Gauke and Co threatened to resign if Hawaiian was ordered, Fox and Co if it was.
No Deal was reached
To put the other side of the coin - the Govt survived the last confidence vote by 19 - a significant margin. Since then the Govt's position may have actually improved - the 3 Con defectors to TIG are very unlikely to vote against Govt (Heidi Allen specifically said she would vote for Govt) - and there must be a reasonable chance the 8 Lab defectors to TIG won't either (as they would most likely just be voting to lose their jobs).
This is not a drill.
MV passes 2019: 62%
Euro elections 2019: 67%
EU ref 2019: 34%
No deal 2019: 29%
A50 revoked: 28% (no timescale)
Anything she says about parliament failing to find a consensus either will just be used by disingenuous MPs like Nandy to claim they were just on the verge of backing her deal but then she was rude to them, or something.
Cabinet had lengthy discussions and they'll have more discussions on Thursday.
She's going to have discussions with the EU leaders and others.
Parliament must vote for her deal if it wants to avoid No Deal or No Brexit.
Nothing. Has. Changed.
The God Bless The Good Ship May and all who sail in her!
Oh. Wait.
“Right, we’ve decided what we want for breakfast. Now shall we move on?”
Cat emerges.
Door closes.
End of update.
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1113087911094816769
NOTHING HAS CHANGED.
MY DEAL MY DEAL MY DEAL
NAUGHTY PARLIAMENT BOOOO
It is hard to make tasty vegeburgers as there needs to be a higher fat content, but linda macartneys are good. BK spicy Beanburger is pretty good, far superior to the mcdonalds version.
Makes sense. The commons, by persistently voting against everything, has effectively chosen no-deal since it's the legal default. The executive now has to decide a practical method of implementing that, and doing it over weeks makes no sense. Two years, perhaps.
If the HoC doesn't like it, it can vote _for_ another approach.
https://twitter.com/Simon4NDorset/status/1113109734704508928
I'm more and more convinced she wanted something to win out yesterday and is spitting mad nothing did, because the ball is back in her court.
Because that would be too bloody sensible. Get with the program! You mean the EU Withdrawal (Can-Kicking) Bill? Even if Parliament passes it and May goes along with it, hopefully the EU27 will tell her to sod off.
We are well past the point at which some kind of decision should be expected from our rotten, useless leaders.
Whacky Brexit
Sorry if it has been said before
We are well past the point at which some kind of decision should be expected from our rotten, useless leaders.
If the Peoples' Vote lot could bring themselves to vote for a Customs Union Brexit, there's a good chance it would win an overall majority among MP's. If a CU Brexit is made subject to a second referendum, then I think it gains and loses about the same number of supporters.
(Well done to Laura K who did the interview)
Still, if they were ever in government in would neuter the standard opposition cry of "It's time for Change"
"Much discussion as whether the Toadies will be blamed for a No Deal Brexit."
"Nobody appears to want to compromise. Not the TIGs, not Labour, not the Toadies."
"Highly unlikely that there will be an election until there is a new Toady leader."
It was very hard not to laugh. In fact I didn't manage it.
Money borders laws.
Nothing has changed.
The Deal.
Will of the people.
No second referendum.
What does parliament want?
In any case, no deal is a bit like gravity. Eventually it will assert itself if you fail to take effective countermeasures.