Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
Not convinced. With Corbyn backed by McCluskey and Momentum there aren’t that many who want an open break which would surely happen if they support May against Corbyn. If there were, more would be in TIG. At the end of the day they all want to get re-elected.
Look at the numbers, only 10 Labour MPs voted against a CU on Monday, the vast majority of Labour MPs though voted to no confidence Corbyn. The idea they will follow Corbyn regardless holds no water
They’ve been blocked in replacing Corbyn once before - by McClusky and Momentum. With deselection campaigns driving out the TIGs I don’t think they are going to try that again. They have no chance of being re-elected with Labour’s nomination.
The funny thing is all the Tory people who finally reluctantly got in behind May by MV3 now suddenly realising they're being flung under the bus anyway. Hilarious.
Had MV3 gone through we would be definitely leaving the EU in May and the single market and the Customs Union after a FTA agreed, thanks to the likes of Francois if we do now leave the EU it is likely to be only while staying permanently in a CU. Those Tory MPs who backed MV3 are now shown to have been right
What has been little remarked upon is that it is reported 14 of the Cabinet were for No Deal. Out of 26. FOURTEEN!
Source. Guardian Politics Live.
In that case how did May conclude that No Deal is to be avoided at all costs?
Did she? It seems noticeable that the language on No Deal was different this week. Back to being 'we could cope with no deal if we need to but its not ideal'.
The Liverpool UKIP twitter account is attempting a splenetic defence of National Action and this little scumbag, in case you were wondering if UKIP were still a going concern.
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
They have been remarkably faithful to the whip, on passing the WA at least. On that, nothing has changed.
Have they? Even the party chairman defied the whip on EUref2.
Nandy etc said they wanted a Customs Union to switch, they may now get it and Customs Union fell by just 3 of a majority with most Labour MPs voting for it and most Tory MPs voting against it but crucially more Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union than Labour MPs voted against a Customs Union
I did specify 'on passing the WA' because that is what matters. I see theoretically the numbers of a CU, but I think so few Tories will back it that May will face too many resignations, whatever she might think she can push through.
37 Tory MPs already voted for a CU, she can ignore resignations
If 200 MPs oppose her she can theoretically get this plan through. But will she actually do it?
I think so, otherwise she would not have made this statement. Only 10 Labour MPs actually voted against a Customs Union (significantly fewer than the number of Labour MPs who voted against Common Market 2.0, revoke and EUref2), as opposed to 37 Tory MPs who voted for a Customs Union (more than the number of Tory MPs who voted for EUref2, revoke or CM2) and 40 Tory MPs who abstained.
Deal plus CU is the surest way to get her Deal through now
I think it's quite a clever idea to suggest that both she and Corbyn agree to respect the will of the Commons. In a sense it would provide political cover for both of them.
Agreed, let the Commons decide, it is clear they are inches away from passing a Deal plus CU anyway
The funny thing is all the Tory people who finally reluctantly got in behind May by MV3 now suddenly realising they're being flung under the bus anyway. Hilarious.
Had MV3 gone through we would be definitely leaving the EU in May and the single market and the Customs Union after a FTA agreed, thanks to the likes of Francois if we do now leave the EU it is likely to be only while staying permanently in a CU. Those Tory MPs who backed MV3 are now shown to have been right
Far be it for me to defend the idiots in the ERG but I thought they said that even if every member of the ERG voted for May's deal there still wouldn't have been a majority for MV3?
The funny thing is all the Tory people who finally reluctantly got in behind May by MV3 now suddenly realising they're being flung under the bus anyway. Hilarious.
Had MV3 gone through we would be definitely leaving the EU in May and the single market and the Customs Union after a FTA agreed, thanks to the likes of Francois if we do now leave the EU it is likely to be only while staying permanently in a CU. Those Tory MPs who backed MV3 are now shown to have been right
Far be it for me to defend the idiots in the ERG but I thought they said that even if every member of the ERG voted for May's deal there still wouldn't have been a majority for MV3?
But if every member of the ERG had voted for the deal people like me wouldn't be able to blame them for Brexit not happening.
That Masterton tweet looks like a huge dollop of wishful thinking.
I think there's a serious possibility of that.
I really don't think there's a majority in the HOC for revoking. SNP, Lucas, a few dozen Lab, not all the LDs, not all TIG. There's strong support in the Labour party for forcing the Tories into revoking, but that's not the same thing. If the PM went to see HMQ I can't think of anyone who would command the support of the house. That's anyone at all, not anyone who would back Revoke. The only person who has commanded a majority on a brexit matter is Kit Malthouse.
The funny thing is all the Tory people who finally reluctantly got in behind May by MV3 now suddenly realising they're being flung under the bus anyway. Hilarious.
It is, but they left it too late and gave it too big a hurdle to climb.
The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
He's plain wrong!
I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.
It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.
Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.
Deltapoll at the weekend had Tory voters backing Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% but Labour voters only backing it 35% to 31%, this could yet be a shrewd move by May if it leads to extension then Deal plus Customs Union passing the Commons
Are you trolling me with your flimsy delta poll?
It’s going to take more than that poll to save her.
14 cabinet ministers and 200 MPs against this, and that’s the remainery end of the party 😄
As long as it gets through the Commons that is enough, May will then step down as Tory leader and PM and leave the Tory Party to others
She is going to break the party and hand the country to marxist anti semites
What a legacy
She isn't, more Tory voters in fact back Deal plus CU with Deltapoll than Labour voters even if more Tory voters back No Deal.
Deal plus CU sounds fine but actually isn't. I suspect very strongly that Tory voters (and in fact voters in general) will hate it once they learn what it is.
They may do but it will only be in the non binding PD not the legally binding WA and I am sure Boris, Raab etc will promise to try and negotiate for a FTA instead if they are elected to succeed May
What has been little remarked upon is that it is reported 14 of the Cabinet were for No Deal. Out of 26. FOURTEEN!
Source. Guardian Politics Live.
In that case how did May conclude that No Deal is to be avoided at all costs?
Did she? It seems noticeable that the language on No Deal was different this week. Back to being 'we could cope with no deal if we need to but its not ideal'.
She talks the 'we could cope with No Deal' talk but she knows what a disaster it would be and, quite reasonably, is not ultimately going to be the PM who brings that about (imo).
C4 news says may likely to propose to Corbyn they formally back another series of indicative votes and agree to abide by the outcome ie almost certainly leading to Deal plus CU
That Masterton tweet looks like a huge dollop of wishful thinking.
I think there's a serious possibility of that.
I really don't think there's a majority in the HOC for revoking. SNP, Lucas, a few dozen Lab, not all the LDs, not all TIG. There's strong support in the Labour party for forcing the Tories into revoking, but that's not the same thing. If the PM went to see HMQ I can't think of anyone who would command the support of the house. That's anyone at all, not anyone who would back Revoke. The only person who has commanded a majority on a brexit matter is Kit Malthouse.
Any more sensible names come to mind?
Didn't revoke get 180 votes in indicative vote 1.0?
C4 news says may likely to propose to Corbyn they formally back another series of indicative votes and agree to abide by the outcome ie almost certainly leading to Deal plus CU
That’s what we were talking about last night. They read this place.
The funny thing is all the Tory people who finally reluctantly got in behind May by MV3 now suddenly realising they're being flung under the bus anyway. Hilarious.
Had MV3 gone through we would be definitely leaving the EU in May and the single market and the Customs Union after a FTA agreed, thanks to the likes of Francois if we do now leave the EU it is likely to be only while staying permanently in a CU. Those Tory MPs who backed MV3 are now shown to have been right
Far be it for me to defend the idiots in the ERG but I thought they said that even if every member of the ERG voted for May's deal there still wouldn't have been a majority for MV3?
Not necessarily as around 10-20 Labour MPs considering voting for the Deal declined to do so at the last minute once they saw it was going to lose.
You can rebel if you know you will win, no point rebelling only to lose and still face all the hostility from your party colleagues
That Masterton tweet looks like a huge dollop of wishful thinking.
I think there's a serious possibility of that.
I really don't think there's a majority in the HOC for revoking. SNP, Lucas, a few dozen Lab, not all the LDs, not all TIG. There's strong support in the Labour party for forcing the Tories into revoking, but that's not the same thing. If the PM went to see HMQ I can't think of anyone who would command the support of the house. That's anyone at all, not anyone who would back Revoke. The only person who has commanded a majority on a brexit matter is Kit Malthouse.
Any more sensible names come to mind?
Didn't revoke get 180 votes in indicative vote 1.0?
And 184 last week, but they were both marked by a lot of LAB abstentions and no LAB aye whip. Keeps revoke on the table, but doesn't actually commit the party.
What has been little remarked upon is that it is reported 14 of the Cabinet were for No Deal. Out of 26. FOURTEEN!
Source. Guardian Politics Live.
In that case how did May conclude that No Deal is to be avoided at all costs?
Did she? It seems noticeable that the language on No Deal was different this week. Back to being 'we could cope with no deal if we need to but its not ideal'.
She talks the 'we could cope with No Deal' talk but she knows what a disaster it would be and, quite reasonably, is not ultimately going to be the PM who brings that about (imo).
Tic toc, if by next week there's no deal reached then she just might go over the edge gripping firmly on to Corbyn.
Comments
https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1113146345521647616?s=21
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1113151810477416448
Any more sensible names come to mind?
What a surprise.
NEW THREAD
You can rebel if you know you will win, no point rebelling only to lose and still face all the hostility from your party colleagues
Makes me think of Gollum at Mount Doom.
in talks with the opposition