I've repeatedly said on here that No Deal isn't going to happen. Doesn't matter how many times people say it could happen, it won't.
Anyway, the loons on the hard right won't be happy.
They’re clinging onto the fact it could happen by procedural accident; it won’t.
The EU can read the politics here just as much as we can and will want to prevent Brexit at all (for a whole host of reasons) if they can. The longer the delay the more they can see it going their way.
They won’t cry too much into their soup about the electoral consequences for the Conservatives either.
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
They have been remarkably faithful to the whip, on passing the WA at least. On that, nothing has changed.
Have they? Even the party chairman defied the whip on EUref2.
Nandy etc said they wanted a Customs Union to switch, they may now get it and Customs Union fell by just 3 of a majority with most Labour MPs voting for it and most Tory MPs voting against it but crucially more Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union than Labour MPs voted against a Customs Union
So the two current politicians least attuned to compromise are getting in a room together to compromise. I have concerns.
There's an ITV sitcom in there somewhere: an unemotional hardline right winger and a shambolic old marxist have to work together to avert a national crisis. Jez We Can?
Watched the Cabinet Ministers leaving No. 10 and as far as I could see, there was a lot of suppressed anger getting into their ministerial cars. Think she tried to grind them down over the 7 hours, and it didn't work.
And bounce them straight afterwards.
Correct me where I’m wrong.
1. Her grand idea to cabinet was to incorporate Labours Brexit into the PD. 2. Nearly two thirds of her cabinet voted against her. 3. She hit the microphones before they got their phones back sticking to her plan.
I think we know who has put the party in peril and it is not TM
It certainly is. She has micromanaged everything and expected others just to comply. She has failed to attempt a concensus, lot her majority through her own incompetence and continues to see Brexit as a matter of immigration.
And when she states she wants a consensus (however sincerely) she may be brought down for trying, so exactly how was she supposed to attempt a consensus?
This isn’t about trying to build concensus. They are not going to agree anything. This is about trying to shift some of the blame for a deal not being made to Corbyn before a GE.
Yes I know, that's why I added the part about sincerity. The point was that her own party will probably be apoplectic at the idea it is sincere, which shows why she hsa not tried for consensus, because her party will go ballistic.
Not convinced. An election is almost inevitable. Tories are buying time to prepare. Her party will only only go ballistic if there is an election with May still leader.
The damage to the party may already be done by the time she goes.
True - but if you are an MP and want to stay that way, you’ll clutch at any straw you can.
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
Can’t see them backing her in the VONC which is coming soon.
She’s done - stick a fork in her.
Provided she gets her Deal through beforehand, even with a CU, what does May care, she completed Brexit and has said she will not fight another election anyway
The key difference between Labour and May's Tories is that May is backing a temporary Customs Union in the transition while Labour want it to be permanent. With the transition due to end [theoretically] end of 2020.
I believe the FTPA early election procedures don't actually demand an immediate early election, instead Parliament simply says there should be an early election, the PM advises the Monarch the new date and that is then the scheduled date. There is nothing requiring Parliament is then immediately dissolved.
May could offer Corbyn an early General Election to be held on the first Thursday of May 2020 [when Cameron's term would have ended if May hadn't gone early] in exchange for Corbyn passing the WA. Then May resigns.
There is then a customs union for the duration of this Parliament. Corbyn gets an early election he wants, though not immediately. Tories have time to replace May before the election. The public gets to vote during the transition after we've exited with all parties putting their proposals in their manifestos. Labour could say if elected they'll make the temporary customs union permanent, the Tories that they would try and negotiate a way out of the backstop.
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
Can’t see them backing her in the VONC which is coming soon.
She’s done - stick a fork in her.
Provided she gets her Deal through beforehand, even with a CU, what does May care, she completed Brexit and has said she will not fight another election anyway
Suppose and as Carswell & Cummings point out that can be thrown in the bin post new leader, GE etc..
The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
He's plain wrong!
I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.
It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.
Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.
Deltapoll at the weekend had Tory voters backing Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% but Labour voters only backing it 35% to 31%, this could yet be a shrewd move by May if it leads to extension then Deal plus Customs Union passing the Commons
Are you trolling me with your flimsy delta poll?
It’s going to take more than that poll to save her.
14 cabinet ministers and 200 MPs against this, and that’s the remainery end of the party 😄
As long as it gets through the Commons that is enough, May will then step down as Tory leader and PM and leave the Tory Party to others
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
They have been remarkably faithful to the whip, on passing the WA at least. On that, nothing has changed.
Have they? Even the party chairman defied the whip on EUref2.
Nandy etc said they wanted a Customs Union to switch, they may now get it and Customs Union fell by just 3 of a majority with most Labour MPs voting for it and most Tory MPs voting against it but crucially more Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union than Labour MPs voted against a Customs Union
I did specify 'on passing the WA' because that is what matters. I see theoretically the numbers of a CU, but I think so few Tories will back it that May will face too many resignations, whatever she might think she can push through.
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
Jezza should say:
Thank you Prime Minister. I'm flattered that you believe I alone can save the complete shambles you and your government have made of Brexit.
I am delighted that you have awarded my the title of co-Prime Minister... But unfortunately I have to decline your offer as we need a general election in order for me to become the Prime Minister of the UK and to save the country from the mess you've made.
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
Can’t see them backing her in the VONC which is coming soon.
She’s done - stick a fork in her.
Provided she gets her Deal through beforehand, even with a CU, what does May care, she completed Brexit and has said she will not fight another election anyway
Suppose and as Carswell & Cummings point out that can be thrown in the bin post new leader, GE etc..
The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
He's plain wrong!
I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.
It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.
Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.
Deltapoll at the weekend had Tory voters backing Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% but Labour voters only backing it 35% to 31%, this could yet be a shrewd move by May if it leads to extension then Deal plus Customs Union passing the Commons
Are you trolling me with your flimsy delta poll?
It’s going to take more than that poll to save her.
14 cabinet ministers and 200 MPs against this, and that’s the remainery end of the party 😄
As long as it gets through the Commons that is enough, May will then step down as Tory leader and PM and leave the Tory Party to others
She is going to break the party and hand the country to marxist anti semites
The key difference between Labour and May's Tories is that May is backing a temporary Customs Union in the transition while Labour want it to be permanent. With the transition due to end [theoretically] end of 2020.
I believe the FTPA early election procedures don't actually demand an immediate early election, instead Parliament simply says there should be an early election, the PM advises the Monarch the new date and that is then the scheduled date. There is nothing requiring Parliament is then immediately dissolved.
May could offer Corbyn an early General Election to be held on the first Thursday of May 2020 [when Cameron's term would have ended if May hadn't gone early] in exchange for Corbyn passing the WA. Then May resigns.
There is then a customs union for the duration of this Parliament. Corbyn gets an early election he wants, though not immediately. Tories have time to replace May before the election. The public gets to vote during the transition after we've exited with all parties putting their proposals in their manifestos. Labour could say if elected they'll make the temporary customs union permanent, the Tories that they would try and negotiate a way out of the backstop.
The temporary customs union part of May's deal is the backstop, not the transition. Under transition the EU treaties will apply in full.
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
Not convinced. With Corbyn backed by McCluskey and Momentum there aren’t that many who want an open break which would surely happen if they support May against Corbyn. If there were, more would be in TIG. At the end of the day they all want to get re-elected.
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
They have been remarkably faithful to the whip, on passing the WA at least. On that, nothing has changed.
Have they? Even the party chairman defied the whip on EUref2.
Nandy etc said they wanted a Customs Union to switch, they may now get it and Customs Union fell by just 3 of a majority with most Labour MPs voting for it and most Tory MPs voting against it but crucially more Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union than Labour MPs voted against a Customs Union
I did specify 'on passing the WA' because that is what matters. I see theoretically the numbers of a CU, but I think so few Tories will back it that May will face too many resignations, whatever she might think she can push through.
37 Tory MPs already voted for a CU, she can ignore resignations
The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
He's plain wrong!
I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.
It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.
Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.
Deltapoll at the weekend had Tory voters backing Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% but Labour voters only backing it 35% to 31%, this could yet be a shrewd move by May if it leads to extension then Deal plus Customs Union passing the Commons
Are you trolling me with your flimsy delta poll?
It’s going to take more than that poll to save her.
14 cabinet ministers and 200 MPs against this, and that’s the remainery end of the party 😄
As long as it gets through the Commons that is enough, May will then step down as Tory leader and PM and leave the Tory Party to others
She is going to break the party and hand the country to marxist anti semites
What a legacy
The party was already broken. Some think anything but no deal is tantamount to treason. Surprise, May was not able to bridge the gap between Tory factions. For for the good of the country it may be a compromise is needed, and the Tories won't be rewarded for that. That's tough, but government's often don't get rewarded for things. At the end of the day if we vote in Corbyn that's on the public, not May.
The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
He's plain wrong!
I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.
It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.
Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.
Deltapoll at the weekend had Tory voters backing Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% but Labour voters only backing it 35% to 31%, this could yet be a shrewd move by May if it leads to extension then Deal plus Customs Union passing the Commons
Are you trolling me with your flimsy delta poll?
It’s going to take more than that poll to save her.
14 cabinet ministers and 200 MPs against this, and that’s the remainery end of the party 😄
As long as it gets through the Commons that is enough, May will then step down as Tory leader and PM and leave the Tory Party to others
She is going to break the party and hand the country to marxist anti semites
What a legacy
Quite frankly I don't give a flying fuck any more. Conservative MP's are largely as much as a disgrace as Labour ones, if the Tories get blamed for foisting Corbyn on the UK, then they deserver the blame. The Tories do not deserve to be in Govt. We need a Centre party. and that's not Corbyn. A neat double split of both parties leaving the loons all to themselves is the best way forward.
You’ve gone all quiet Big G. You having same thoughts about this being a master stroke?
I heard this guy on Radio and I thought it sounded like John Sargent, but he was talking too much sense. “a large amount of people are going to say they have been betrayed by another large amount of people whichever way its now decided” His name was Richard Harrington and a couple of weeks ago he was a government minister. It’s a warped looking future with the likes of Truss much shorter odds for leadership than Harrington or Tobias Elwood, isn’t it?
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
They have been remarkably faithful to the whip, on passing the WA at least. On that, nothing has changed.
Have they? Even the party chairman defied the whip on EUref2.
Nandy etc said they wanted a Customs Union to switch, they may now get it and Customs Union fell by just 3 of a majority with most Labour MPs voting for it and most Tory MPs voting against it but crucially more Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union than Labour MPs voted against a Customs Union
I did specify 'on passing the WA' because that is what matters. I see theoretically the numbers of a CU, but I think so few Tories will back it that May will face too many resignations, whatever she might think she can push through.
37 Tory MPs already voted for a CU, she can ignore resignations
If 200 MPs oppose her she can theoretically get this plan through. But will she actually do it?
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
Jezza should say:
Thank you Prime Minister. I'm flattered that you believe I alone can save the complete shambles you and your government have made of Brexit.
I am delighted that you have awarded my the title of co-Prime Minister... But unfortunately I have to decline your offer as we need a general election in order for me to become the Prime Minister of the UK and to save the country from the mess you've made.
The key difference between Labour and May's Tories is that May is backing a temporary Customs Union in the transition while Labour want it to be permanent. With the transition due to end [theoretically] end of 2020.
I believe the FTPA early election procedures don't actually demand an immediate early election, instead Parliament simply says there should be an early election, the PM advises the Monarch the new date and that is then the scheduled date. There is nothing requiring Parliament is then immediately dissolved.
May could offer Corbyn an early General Election to be held on the first Thursday of May 2020 [when Cameron's term would have ended if May hadn't gone early] in exchange for Corbyn passing the WA. Then May resigns.
There is then a customs union for the duration of this Parliament. Corbyn gets an early election he wants, though not immediately. Tories have time to replace May before the election. The public gets to vote during the transition after we've exited with all parties putting their proposals in their manifestos. Labour could say if elected they'll make the temporary customs union permanent, the Tories that they would try and negotiate a way out of the backstop.
The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
He's plain wrong!
I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.
It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.
Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.
Deltapoll at the weekend had Tory voters backing Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% but Labour voters only backing it 35% to 31%, this could yet be a shrewd move by May if it leads to extension then Deal plus Customs Union passing the Commons
Are you trolling me with your flimsy delta poll?
It’s going to take more than that poll to save her.
14 cabinet ministers and 200 MPs against this, and that’s the remainery end of the party 😄
As long as it gets through the Commons that is enough, May will then step down as Tory leader and PM and leave the Tory Party to others
She is going to break the party and hand the country to marxist anti semites
What a legacy
Quite frankly I don't give a flying fuck any more. Conservative MP's are largely as much as a disgrace as Labour ones, if the Tories get blamed for foisting Corbyn on the UK, then they deserver the blame. The Tories do not deserve to be in Govt. We need a Centre party. and that's not Corbyn. A neat double split of both parties leaving the loons all to themselves is the best way forward.
The key difference between Labour and May's Tories is that May is backing a temporary Customs Union in the transition while Labour want it to be permanent. With the transition due to end [theoretically] end of 2020.
I believe the FTPA early election procedures don't actually demand an immediate early election, instead Parliament simply says there should be an early election, the PM advises the Monarch the new date and that is then the scheduled date. There is nothing requiring Parliament is then immediately dissolved.
May could offer Corbyn an early General Election to be held on the first Thursday of May 2020 [when Cameron's term would have ended if May hadn't gone early] in exchange for Corbyn passing the WA. Then May resigns.
There is then a customs union for the duration of this Parliament. Corbyn gets an early election he wants, though not immediately. Tories have time to replace May before the election. The public gets to vote during the transition after we've exited with all parties putting their proposals in their manifestos. Labour could say if elected they'll make the temporary customs union permanent, the Tories that they would try and negotiate a way out of the backstop.
For me May has finally run out of road. I disliked her deal (but could have lived with it), and I absolutely hated the idiots that she put in charge to construct that deal. All the way through though she's been working on something that delivers on the damned vote. Now she's trying to save the 'May' bits irrespective of it - working with Corbyn who's party has said that they essentially want to re-run the vote, and who are so unpatriotic that they think we need the EU to work out our workers rights for us. So, for me, May must now resign.
Credit to May for belatedly taking the first step to leading the country out of this impasse. Now we see how Corbyn responds. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised for a second time.
Hi Jeremy, I've got young Chuka here on work experience. You don't mind if he sits in on our meeting do you? There will be feathers spat for days over this
Labour have to got think very carefully about the form their response takes, at the very least.
Agree to meet, but then say they cannot agree terms. Let's be honest, if an agreement is reached between the two how many of their own MPs would defy them? It's not about Brexit, it's about tribalism. Tories won't accept a Labour Brexit, and vice-versa.
Unless both feel their parties will split equally from any agreement, they won't make one - because one of them would benefit at the expense of the other.
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
They have been remarkably faithful to the whip, on passing the WA at least. On that, nothing has changed.
Have they? Even the party chairman defied the whip on EUref2.
Nandy etc said they wanted a Customs Union to switch, they may now get it and Customs Union fell by just 3 of a majority with most Labour MPs voting for it and most Tory MPs voting against it but crucially more Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union than Labour MPs voted against a Customs Union
I did specify 'on passing the WA' because that is what matters. I see theoretically the numbers of a CU, but I think so few Tories will back it that May will face too many resignations, whatever she might think she can push through.
37 Tory MPs already voted for a CU, she can ignore resignations
If 200 MPs oppose her she can theoretically get this plan through. But will she actually do it?
I think so, otherwise she would not have made this statement. Only 10 Labour MPs actually voted against a Customs Union (significantly fewer than the number of Labour MPs who voted against Common Market 2.0, revoke and EUref2), as opposed to 37 Tory MPs who voted for a Customs Union (more than the number of Tory MPs who voted for EUref2, revoke or CM2) and 40 Tory MPs who abstained.
Deal plus CU is the surest way to get her Deal through now
Why is May so desperate to avoid European elections. I mean I know she's crap but what's the specfufc objection to European elections ?
The optics. I don't think anyone cares which particular nutjobs get packed off to Brussels and Strasbourg, where they can't do any harm other than spend taxpayers' money on moules frites and foie gras.
An alternative consideration for avoiding the Euros: it puts in a "hard stop" date to getting the process, or at least this stage of it, over with.
Delivers her objective of fulfilling the referendum result. Stops Brexiteers fretting they're about to be sold out with a never-ending extension that turns into Remain. It gets limbo over with faster - the current uncertainty may be more of a killer to investment planning than even No Deal would be, and its perpetuation is certainly more harmful than May's preferred alternative of having a Deal passed. And it would be the ultimate manifestation of her "take it all the way to the wall" strategy of ramping up the pressure on MPs until they pass something. If she does get the WA through on the nth attempt, then in retrospect her negotiation and her brinkmanship may be remembered as an unlikely and tenacious success. It has turned out convenient for her that the location of the wall has proven somewhat malleable when MPs refused to stop for it the first few times. But were it clear the wall can be taken down indefinitely and reassembled further down the track, ready for its next ignoral and a whole new exercise in can-kicking, then what's to stop MPs just trundling along? Her strategy has got successively more Tory MPs onside as the pressure has built, though next time she'll lose the likes of Drax. To get over the line now it must culminate in a great big moment of This. Is. It. Something to get those Labour backbenchers she needs - through support or simply abstaining - to think really hard about whether they can actively vote for No Deal.
I can't claim to read May's mind but it would astonish me if it was purely about the optics or the political momentum that would arise from them. A brief thought on that nevertheless - while she wouldn't want to see pro-Remain parties score a notable democratic success against her pursuit of Brexit several years after the referendum, the process of electoral polarisation towards the europhile and europhobe extremes itself doesn't do her course of moderation any favours. The big Leave winners in the Euros are likely to be No Dealers, which both re-energises her hard-liners and renders shaky the support of Tory MPs who, though personally amenable to a deal, are acutely aware of their slim majority in a pro-Leave constituency.
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
They have been remarkably faithful to the whip, on passing the WA at least. On that, nothing has changed.
Have they? Even the party chairman defied the whip on EUref2.
Nandy etc said they wanted a Customs Union to switch, they may now get it and Customs Union fell by just 3 of a majority with most Labour MPs voting for it and most Tory MPs voting against it but crucially more Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union than Labour MPs voted against a Customs Union
I did specify 'on passing the WA' because that is what matters. I see theoretically the numbers of a CU, but I think so few Tories will back it that May will face too many resignations, whatever she might think she can push through.
37 Tory MPs already voted for a CU, she can ignore resignations
If 200 MPs oppose her she can theoretically get this plan through. But will she actually do it?
I think so, otherwise she would not have made this statement.
That supposes a lot on how clearly she is considering things. She didn't think the WA would be as unpopular as it was either. She was reportedly unable to get half the Cabinet on board.
The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
He's plain wrong!
I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.
It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.
Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.
Deltapoll at the weekend had Tory voters backing Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% but Labour voters only backing it 35% to 31%, this could yet be a shrewd move by May if it leads to extension then Deal plus Customs Union passing the Commons
Are you trolling me with your flimsy delta poll?
It’s going to take more than that poll to save her.
14 cabinet ministers and 200 MPs against this, and that’s the remainery end of the party 😄
As long as it gets through the Commons that is enough, May will then step down as Tory leader and PM and leave the Tory Party to others
She is going to break the party and hand the country to marxist anti semites
What a legacy
She isn't, more Tory voters in fact back Deal plus CU with Deltapoll than Labour voters even if more Tory voters back No Deal.
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
Not convinced. With Corbyn backed by McCluskey and Momentum there aren’t that many who want an open break which would surely happen if they support May against Corbyn. If there were, more would be in TIG. At the end of the day they all want to get re-elected.
Look at the numbers, only 10 Labour MPs voted against a CU on Monday, the vast majority of Labour MPs though voted to no confidence Corbyn. The idea they will follow Corbyn regardless holds no water
What has been little remarked upon is that it is reported 14 of the Cabinet were for No Deal. Out of 26. FOURTEEN!
Source. Guardian Politics Live.
When Priti Patel resigned and then started speaking her mind, I was taken aback by how detached from reality she was, but since then we've had David Davis, Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab and Esther McVey from Cabinet level showing similar levels of insanity. There's every reason to think the majority of the remaining ones are as bad.
What has been little remarked upon is that it is reported 14 of the Cabinet were for No Deal. Out of 26. FOURTEEN!
Source. Guardian Politics Live.
My MP Alun Cairns will be furious at the olive branch to Corbyn. He was blaming Labour for the failure of Mrs May's deal on Friday... unless this really is some wizard-wheeze to hamstring Corbyn. I didn't have Cairns as a no-dealer though, unless he is planning on keeping the Welsh portfolio under Boris.
What Corbyn requires May can only give if she ceases to care about the wishes of Conservative MPs If no agreement is met with Corbyn, she then goes to what the Commons requires, which May can only give if she ceases to care about the wishes of MPs
She has ceased to be the leader of the Conservative Party and instead sees herself now running a government of national unity.
The EU will not agree to an extension to 22 May. Period. Because the Euros will not have been held, it will be a true cliff edge and unlikely to be met. Even a last minute revoke is problematic if we have no MEPs.
The EU will insist on a long extension and the UK taking part in the Euros while a deal is thrashed out.
Euro election this year at 1.46 on Betfair is good value.
Sky's Mark Stone has said there will be no problem to an extension to the 22nd May
He's plain wrong!
I think EU reporters are right. IF its a softer labour brexit added to the PD then EU will grant time to get the WA passed, which is how May put it isn’t it?
That will take longer than 22 May and will involve Euro elections.
It doesn’t take long for EU to incorporate Labour Brexit into the PD EU have told us often it will only take them a couple of days to do it. Labour Brexit in the PD both party leaders in the same lobby, this could be done and dusted this week.
Unfortunately the Tory party are about to dispose of May for this mad plan of U turning to a Labour `brexit.
Deltapoll at the weekend had Tory voters backing Deal plus Customs Union 42% to 27% but Labour voters only backing it 35% to 31%, this could yet be a shrewd move by May if it leads to extension then Deal plus Customs Union passing the Commons
Are you trolling me with your flimsy delta poll?
It’s going to take more than that poll to save her.
14 cabinet ministers and 200 MPs against this, and that’s the remainery end of the party 😄
As long as it gets through the Commons that is enough, May will then step down as Tory leader and PM and leave the Tory Party to others
She is going to break the party and hand the country to marxist anti semites
What a legacy
She isn't, more Tory voters in fact back Deal plus CU with Deltapoll than Labour voters even if more Tory voters back No Deal.
Deal plus CU sounds fine but actually isn't. I suspect very strongly that Tory voters (and in fact voters in general) will hate it once they learn what it is.
What has been little remarked upon is that it is reported 14 of the Cabinet were for No Deal. Out of 26. FOURTEEN!
Source. Guardian Politics Live.
When Priti Patel resigned and then started speaking her mind, I was taken aback by how detached from reality she was, but since then we've had David Davis, Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab and Esther McVey from Cabinet level showing similar levels of insanity. There's every reason to think the majority of the remaining ones are as bad.
If everyone else appears to be insane, maybe they're not and just think differently to you ...
Lol, so May gives Jez the customs union he's been asking for and now Labour have issues with the WA that can't be changed. Jez is a no deal supporter, has it ever been more obvious?
It is Labour backbenchers May is aiming for, not Corbyn, at the end of the day he is only 1 MP
They have been remarkably faithful to the whip, on passing the WA at least. On that, nothing has changed.
Have they? Even the party chairman defied the whip on EUref2.
Nandy etc said they wanted a Customs Union to switch, they may now get it and Customs Union fell by just 3 of a majority with most Labour MPs voting for it and most Tory MPs voting against it but crucially more Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union than Labour MPs voted against a Customs Union
I did specify 'on passing the WA' because that is what matters. I see theoretically the numbers of a CU, but I think so few Tories will back it that May will face too many resignations, whatever she might think she can push through.
37 Tory MPs already voted for a CU, she can ignore resignations
If 200 MPs oppose her she can theoretically get this plan through. But will she actually do it?
I think so, otherwise she would not have made this statement. Only 10 Labour MPs actually voted against a Customs Union (significantly fewer than the number of Labour MPs who voted against Common Market 2.0, revoke and EUref2), as opposed to 37 Tory MPs who voted for a Customs Union (more than the number of Tory MPs who voted for EUref2, revoke or CM2) and 40 Tory MPs who abstained.
Deal plus CU is the surest way to get her Deal through now
I think it's quite a clever idea to suggest that both she and Corbyn agree to respect the will of the Commons. In a sense it would provide political cover for both of them.
The key difference between Labour and May's Tories is that May is backing a temporary Customs Union in the transition while Labour want it to be permanent. With the transition due to end [theoretically] end of 2020.
I believe the FTPA early election procedures don't actually demand an immediate early election, instead Parliament simply says there should be an early election, the PM advises the Monarch the new date and that is then the scheduled date. There is nothing requiring Parliament is then immediately dissolved.
May could offer Corbyn an early General Election to be held on the first Thursday of May 2020 [when Cameron's term would have ended if May hadn't gone early] in exchange for Corbyn passing the WA. Then May resigns.
There is then a customs union for the duration of this Parliament. Corbyn gets an early election he wants, though not immediately. Tories have time to replace May before the election. The public gets to vote during the transition after we've exited with all parties putting their proposals in their manifestos. Labour could say if elected they'll make the temporary customs union permanent, the Tories that they would try and negotiate a way out of the backstop.
What has been little remarked upon is that it is reported 14 of the Cabinet were for No Deal. Out of 26. FOURTEEN!
Source. Guardian Politics Live.
When Priti Patel resigned and then started speaking her mind, I was taken aback by how detached from reality she was, but since then we've had David Davis, Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab and Esther McVey from Cabinet level showing similar levels of insanity. There's every reason to think the majority of the remaining ones are as bad.
If everyone else appears to be insane, maybe they're not and just think differently to you ...
To be fair, it may be sheer stupidity rather than insanity.
The funny thing is all the Tory people who finally reluctantly got in behind May by MV3 now suddenly realising they're being flung under the bus anyway. Hilarious.
The key difference between Labour and May's Tories is that May is backing a temporary Customs Union in the transition while Labour want it to be permanent. With the transition due to end [theoretically] end of 2020.
I believe the FTPA early election procedures don't actually demand an immediate early election, instead Parliament simply says there should be an early election, the PM advises the Monarch the new date and that is then the scheduled date. There is nothing requiring Parliament is then immediately dissolved.
May could offer Corbyn an early General Election to be held on the first Thursday of May 2020 [when Cameron's term would have ended if May hadn't gone early] in exchange for Corbyn passing the WA. Then May resigns.
There is then a customs union for the duration of this Parliament. Corbyn gets an early election he wants, though not immediately. Tories have time to replace May before the election. The public gets to vote during the transition after we've exited with all parties putting their proposals in their manifestos. Labour could say if elected they'll make the temporary customs union permanent, the Tories that they would try and negotiate a way out of the backstop.
Surely that could happen with May's deal anyway.
Well there isn't an election under the FTPA until after the transition at the moment. Hence the leftfield suggestion that rather than changing the deal, the election date is changed instead. Deal remains the same, but can be backed by Labour to get an early election and they can sign a permanent customs union before the transition is over.
The key difference between Labour and May's Tories is that May is backing a temporary Customs Union in the transition while Labour want it to be permanent. With the transition due to end [theoretically] end of 2020.
I believe the FTPA early election procedures don't actually demand an immediate early election, instead Parliament simply says there should be an early election, the PM advises the Monarch the new date and that is then the scheduled date. There is nothing requiring Parliament is then immediately dissolved.
May could offer Corbyn an early General Election to be held on the first Thursday of May 2020 [when Cameron's term would have ended if May hadn't gone early] in exchange for Corbyn passing the WA. Then May resigns.
There is then a customs union for the duration of this Parliament. Corbyn gets an early election he wants, though not immediately. Tories have time to replace May before the election. The public gets to vote during the transition after we've exited with all parties putting their proposals in their manifestos. Labour could say if elected they'll make the temporary customs union permanent, the Tories that they would try and negotiate a way out of the backstop.
Not sure Jezza would go for that... I mean at Jezza's time of life can he afford to wait around for another year for an election.
Especially when there's a chance of getting a VONC in the government next week.
Comments
The EU can read the politics here just as much as we can and will want to prevent Brexit at all (for a whole host of reasons) if they can. The longer the delay the more they can see it going their way.
They won’t cry too much into their soup about the electoral consequences for the Conservatives either.
Nandy etc said they wanted a Customs Union to switch, they may now get it and Customs Union fell by just 3 of a majority with most Labour MPs voting for it and most Tory MPs voting against it but crucially more Tory MPs voted for a Customs Union than Labour MPs voted against a Customs Union
You’re an optimist.
Correct me where I’m wrong.
1. Her grand idea to cabinet was to incorporate Labours Brexit into the PD.
2. Nearly two thirds of her cabinet voted against her.
3. She hit the microphones before they got their phones back sticking to her plan.
Pray for angels to break her fall.
Failing that order horse shit.
https://twitter.com/pm4eastren/status/1113136592846241797?s=21
What can May give Labour in return that Corbyn needs?
That is the question. Is a statesmanlike moment valuable enough?
The key difference between Labour and May's Tories is that May is backing a temporary Customs Union in the transition while Labour want it to be permanent. With the transition due to end [theoretically] end of 2020.
I believe the FTPA early election procedures don't actually demand an immediate early election, instead Parliament simply says there should be an early election, the PM advises the Monarch the new date and that is then the scheduled date. There is nothing requiring Parliament is then immediately dissolved.
May could offer Corbyn an early General Election to be held on the first Thursday of May 2020 [when Cameron's term would have ended if May hadn't gone early] in exchange for Corbyn passing the WA. Then May resigns.
There is then a customs union for the duration of this Parliament. Corbyn gets an early election he wants, though not immediately. Tories have time to replace May before the election. The public gets to vote during the transition after we've exited with all parties putting their proposals in their manifestos. Labour could say if elected they'll make the temporary customs union permanent, the Tories that they would try and negotiate a way out of the backstop.
Thank you Prime Minister. I'm flattered that you believe I alone can save the complete shambles you and your government have made of Brexit.
I am delighted that you have awarded my the title of co-Prime Minister... But unfortunately I have to decline your offer as we need a general election in order for me to become the Prime Minister of the UK and to save the country from the mess you've made.
So Prime Minister we're calling a VONC instead.
What a legacy
Best Guess: A confirmed date for a June General Election, which he enters as the statesman that ended the chaos.
I heard this guy on Radio and I thought it sounded like John Sargent, but he was talking too much sense. “a large amount of people are going to say they have been betrayed by another large amount of people whichever way its now decided” His name was Richard Harrington and a couple of weeks ago he was a government minister.
It’s a warped looking future with the likes of Truss much shorter odds for leadership than Harrington or Tobias Elwood, isn’t it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KogUSnZLwYo
The winner controls phase 2.
Nanny, he's left the nursery again!
Would you support or oppose a Government of National Unity being formed to complete Brexit?
Support 39%
Oppose 21%
Don't Know 41%
There will be feathers spat for days over this
Unless both feel their parties will split equally from any agreement, they won't make one - because one of them would benefit at the expense of the other.
FOURTEEN!
Source. Guardian Politics Live.
Deal plus CU is the surest way to get her Deal through now
https://ig.ft.com/brexit-second-round-indicative-votes/
Delivers her objective of fulfilling the referendum result. Stops Brexiteers fretting they're about to be sold out with a never-ending extension that turns into Remain. It gets limbo over with faster - the current uncertainty may be more of a killer to investment planning than even No Deal would be, and its perpetuation is certainly more harmful than May's preferred alternative of having a Deal passed. And it would be the ultimate manifestation of her "take it all the way to the wall" strategy of ramping up the pressure on MPs until they pass something. If she does get the WA through on the nth attempt, then in retrospect her negotiation and her brinkmanship may be remembered as an unlikely and tenacious success. It has turned out convenient for her that the location of the wall has proven somewhat malleable when MPs refused to stop for it the first few times. But were it clear the wall can be taken down indefinitely and reassembled further down the track, ready for its next ignoral and a whole new exercise in can-kicking, then what's to stop MPs just trundling along? Her strategy has got successively more Tory MPs onside as the pressure has built, though next time she'll lose the likes of Drax. To get over the line now it must culminate in a great big moment of This. Is. It. Something to get those Labour backbenchers she needs - through support or simply abstaining - to think really hard about whether they can actively vote for No Deal.
I can't claim to read May's mind but it would astonish me if it was purely about the optics or the political momentum that would arise from them. A brief thought on that nevertheless - while she wouldn't want to see pro-Remain parties score a notable democratic success against her pursuit of Brexit several years after the referendum, the process of electoral polarisation towards the europhile and europhobe extremes itself doesn't do her course of moderation any favours. The big Leave winners in the Euros are likely to be No Dealers, which both re-energises her hard-liners and renders shaky the support of Tory MPs who, though personally amenable to a deal, are acutely aware of their slim majority in a pro-Leave constituency.
Len is on the phone he is coming as well because he pays the wonga.
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1113149571616604161
If no agreement is met with Corbyn, she then goes to what the Commons requires, which May can only give if she ceases to care about the wishes of MPs
She has ceased to be the leader of the Conservative Party and instead sees herself now running a government of national unity.
https://twitter.com/BBCLancashire/status/1113038829399703552?s=19
Especially when there's a chance of getting a VONC in the government next week.