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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where we are now summed up in two betting Tweets
?? Latest Brexit Odds ??1/3 UK holds European Elections in May8/11 2019 General Election2/1 2019 Referendum2/1 UK leaves with NO DEAL on April 12th
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First. Unlike May's deal.0
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MV4 is the one. Or maybe MV5. Perhaps MV6.
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Second..... no Third! But possibly well in front of some Conservative candidates at the forthcoming GE.0
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Don’t see how we avoid a GE this year still, but in fairness that is a lesser consideration than what will happen in the next 2 weeks. Pinning hopes on Customs Union now I guess.
Although MV2.5 has received more votes than anything else so far. It is the most popular, technically. But not the least unpopular.0 -
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.0
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We could have 4 Prime Ministers this year.kle4 said:Don’t see how we avoid a GE this year still, but in fairness that is a lesser consideration than what will happen in the next 2 weeks. Pinning hopes on Customs Union now I guess.
Although MV2.5 has received more votes than anything else so far. It is the most popular, technically. But not the least unpopular.0 -
May 23rd would be interesting and potentially complicated as it would be concurrent with European Parliamentary elections were we to extend and hold them.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
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"It's going in the right direction" bless!Andrew said:0 -
Maybe May should try to grab a friendly deputy speaker, and however many members constitute a quorum and hold a Robber’s Parliament across the road before any other members can come by and vote down her deal again. Worked for the second council of ephesus.0
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One would be nice.Jonathan said:
We could have 4 Prime Ministers this year.kle4 said:Don’t see how we avoid a GE this year still, but in fairness that is a lesser consideration than what will happen in the next 2 weeks. Pinning hopes on Customs Union now I guess.
Although MV2.5 has received more votes than anything else so far. It is the most popular, technically. But not the least unpopular.0 -
23rd; Coinciding with the Euros?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
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Bercow being abducted for a couple of days would be very helpful next week.kle4 said:Maybe May should try to grab a friendly deputy speaker, and however many members constitute a quorum and hold a Robber’s Parliament across the road before any other members can come by and vote down her deal again. Worked for the second council of ephesus.
He has screwed with this for long enough.0 -
Andrew said:
Which answers the question DavidL had about what the point of today was - to show momentum and support for this option above the indicative vote options.
Not sure that will work, but in any case won’t the government need to come off the fence and not abstain on Monday? And can they be sure how all their Cabinet members will vote?0 -
What do we know about the next stage of the Letwin Process?0
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I don't think people have registered yet how limited the choices are. The Letwin process is almost an irrelevance, unless it produces a majority for a second referendum to justify a long extension.Andrew said:0 -
It will be a fuck up?Benpointer said:What do we know about the next stage of the Letwin Process?
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Only 2/1 against No Deal on 12th April ?! Must be a lot less likely than that since both the EU and the HoC don't want it.0
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I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.0
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Surely you mean "years". "Days" seems hardly adequate.oxfordsimon said:
Bercow being abducted for a couple of days would be very helpful next week.kle4 said:Maybe May should try to grab a friendly deputy speaker, and however many members constitute a quorum and hold a Robber’s Parliament across the road before any other members can come by and vote down her deal again. Worked for the second council of ephesus.
He has screwed with this for long enough.0 -
Makes a lot of sense.OldKingCole said:
23rd; Coinciding with the Euros?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
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Popcorn, anyone?TheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
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Just messaged a friend who is an actual anarchist. "Your lot must be feeling pretty smug right now."0
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Wouldn't that be fun.OldKingCole said:
23rd; Coinciding with the Euros?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
Might also postpone the locals to the same date for fun.0 -
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.0 -
Surely that's the future of any optionMarqueeMark said:
It will be a fuck up?Benpointer said:What do we know about the next stage of the Letwin Process?
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I'm diabetic, but I would do a jig if either of them lost their seats, I'd class both of them as Con Gains.OldKingCole said:
Popcorn, anyone?TheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
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Like the new logoTheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
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And we could sort out the best crisp while we are at it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Wouldn't that be fun.OldKingCole said:
23rd; Coinciding with the Euros?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
Might also postpone the locals to the same date for fun.0 -
Can't help thinking there will have been a majority in the HoC by this time next week for WA or WA+x
And we can all breathe easily again....
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Or remind them what a mess the Tories have made.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.0 -
A fortnight next Tuesday for the 23rd, and a week later for the 30th.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.0 -
How long before one of the holdout Conservative MP's says that he didn't realise he was voting to stop Brexit?
I think that Steve Baker and Mark Francois have to be prevented from running again as Conservative candidates. In all likelihood, the Continuity Remainers' associations will do for them, without CCHQ intervention.0 -
On the European Parliament elections, can anyone advise; is any Parliamentary vote required to give the green light for UK elections? I just cannot believe there will be a majority for it.0
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Can the HoC and EU do a deal? I believe the EU can only talk to the govt. So it looks like revoke or No DealBenpointer said:Only 2/1 against No Deal on 12th April ?! Must be a lot less likely than that since both the EU and the HoC don't want it.
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"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
Yeah right.0 -
2044.Sean_F said:How long before one of the holdout Conservative MP's says that he didn't realise he was voting to stop Brexit?
I think that Steve Baker and Mark Francois have to be prevented from running again as Conservative candidates. In all likelihood, the Continuity Remainers' associations will do for them, without CCHQ intervention.0 -
Does anyone see any chance of Betfair paying out on "No" for MV3? The rubric says "market voided if vote does not take place", but not until yesterday did they change the wording to specify that this must include the political declaration. It was originally explicit that MV3 was defined as a third vote *on the Withdrawal Agreement*. Which happened today.0
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I think both would hold their seats. Both were around 50% Leave, and the Conservatives did well in both seats in local elections.TheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
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Or delay.ReggieCide said:
Can the HoC and EU do a deal? I believe the EU can only talk to the govt. So it looks like revoke or No DealBenpointer said:Only 2/1 against No Deal on 12th April ?! Must be a lot less likely than that since both the EU and the HoC don't want it.
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It would presumably greatly decrease the cost of holding an EU electionRH1992 said:
May 23rd would be interesting and potentially complicated as it would be concurrent with European Parliamentary elections were we to extend and hold them.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
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Harsh but oh so fucking fair.Benpointer said:
One would be nice.Jonathan said:
We could have 4 Prime Ministers this year.kle4 said:Don’t see how we avoid a GE this year still, but in fairness that is a lesser consideration than what will happen in the next 2 weeks. Pinning hopes on Customs Union now I guess.
Although MV2.5 has received more votes than anything else so far. It is the most popular, technically. But not the least unpopular.0 -
For the majority of Leave voters, completing a ballot in a European election will be a novel experience. Many will be surprised to discover that such a thing exists.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.0 -
May's masterplan uncovered!TheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
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I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.Benpointer said:
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
Yeah right.0 -
I think a mixture of Brexit and Universal Credit puts IDS at risk.Sean_F said:
I think both would hold their seats. Both were around 50% Leave, and the Conservatives did well in both seats in local elections.TheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
Boris has managed to annoy both Leavers and Remainers today.0 -
delay = revokeBenpointer said:
Or delay.ReggieCide said:
Can the HoC and EU do a deal? I believe the EU can only talk to the govt. So it looks like revoke or No DealBenpointer said:Only 2/1 against No Deal on 12th April ?! Must be a lot less likely than that since both the EU and the HoC don't want it.
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That would be fun.OldKingCole said:
23rd; Coinciding with the Euros?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
LibDdems, Labour, TIGs, Greens, Plaid, SNP all squabbling for the Remain vote, Tories and assorted UKIP incarnations squabbling for the Leave vote.
I've thought for a while that an election was needed. But not under May. No way can she be put to the voters again. But then, neither can a stand in. But then, neither is there going to be another Tory coronation.
A Tory version of Battle Royal is required. All the contestants for Tory leader on Gruinard Island, with a selection of axes, crossbows, throwing knives, flamethrowers and broadswords. Last Man Standing gets to implement Brexit. Get a result within 24 hours.0 -
A reflection that the UK is now the home of what is probably the largest Pro EU movement in Europe.logical_song said:
Like the new logoTheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
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FPT Mr. B, cheers for posting that.
Bit busy over the weekend so I might be putting up the pre-qualifying tosh this evening rather than tomorrow.
Mr. F, quite.0 -
Could also serve as the template for future flags of the component states of the union - your old national flag within the EU flag.TheScreamingEagles said:
A reflection that the UK is now the home of what is probably the largest Pro EU movement in Europe.logical_song said:
Like the new logoTheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
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The thought of a Corbyn government horrifies me, but the idea of either of those two tossers losing their seats would be like Ed Balls losing his on steroidsTheScreamingEagles said:
I think a mixture of Brexit and Universal Credit puts IDS at risk.Sean_F said:
I think both would hold their seats. Both were around 50% Leave, and the Conservatives did well in both seats in local elections.TheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
Boris has managed to annoy both Leavers and Remainers today.0 -
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.Sean_F said:
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.Benpointer said:
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
Yeah right.0 -
All across the land the hosts of Mordor raged.0
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Either Mercedes have some pace in hand, or they have gone into damage limitation mode - they didn't do a second qualifying sim, unlike Ferrari.Morris_Dancer said:FPT Mr. B, cheers for posting that.
Bit busy over the weekend so I might be putting up the pre-qualifying tosh this evening rather than tomorrow.
Mr. F, quite.0 -
....and the largest anti-EU movement.TheScreamingEagles said:
A reflection that the UK is now the home of what is probably the largest Pro EU movement in Europe.logical_song said:
Like the new logoTheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
I love the idea of all the ProEU Movement agitating for an institution headed by Juncker, the sort of businessman they would ordinarily be, er, marching to have removed from office - for being an affront to all that was decent in the world they want to live in. But hey, IOKIYAE.
(It's OK If You're A Eurocrat)0 -
It might just remind some more open minded Leavers that voting leave was not in the country's best interest, and the only people it has served well was the country's enemies and detractorsOldKingCole said:
Or remind them what a mess the Tories have made.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.0 -
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.kle4 said:
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.Sean_F said:
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.Benpointer said:
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
Yeah right.0 -
The constituency result I liked the most was Mark Reckless losing in 2015, but this might top that.Nigel_Foremain said:
The thought of a Corbyn government horrifies me, but the idea of either of those two tossers losing their seats would be like Ed Balls losing his on steroidsTheScreamingEagles said:
I think a mixture of Brexit and Universal Credit puts IDS at risk.Sean_F said:
I think both would hold their seats. Both were around 50% Leave, and the Conservatives did well in both seats in local elections.TheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
Boris has managed to annoy both Leavers and Remainers today.
Ditto Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and Andrew Bridgen losing, but I cannot see that happening.0 -
Would be massive upheaval to delay the local elections now. The formal campaign period has begun so election expenses have been triggered, all polling stations and their staff are booked, nominations have been accepted (still open), polling cards with official notices of the election are all out.
Chaos and primary legislation needed to change that this stage.0 -
The Conservatives called the 2017 election as the party of Brexit, telling people Labour wanted to stop it, thinking it was a 50% strategy. It turned out to be a 40% strategy that also boosted the opposition up to the same level.kle4 said:
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.Sean_F said:
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.Benpointer said:
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
Yeah right.
Now it's become a 30-35% strategy, and they seem determined to make the same mistake again.0 -
I still think they'd be polling 45-50%. That might be enough to lose, but I think probably not.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think a mixture of Brexit and Universal Credit puts IDS at risk.Sean_F said:
I think both would hold their seats. Both were around 50% Leave, and the Conservatives did well in both seats in local elections.TheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
Boris has managed to annoy both Leavers and Remainers today.0 -
Mr. B, hard to judge relative race pace between those two teams because Leclerc was ordered to back off and Vettel had gremlins in Oz, but right now I think Mercedes has the biggest qualifying boost (hence relatively weakest in the race), Ferrari are in the middle, and Red Bull are similar to Ferrari but a bit better (relative to qualifying) in the race.
If we end up with Ferrari-Mercedes-Red Bull in the race, I wonder if the Silver Arrows might end up going backwards.
Anyway, I'll check the odds sometime after 5pm.0 -
Too late for locals, nominations in, the clock has already been started.TheScreamingEagles said:
Wouldn't that be fun.OldKingCole said:
23rd; Coinciding with the Euros?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
Might also postpone the locals to the same date for fun.0 -
Chaos doesn't seem a problem for the present government.tpfkar said:Would be massive upheaval to delay the local elections now. The formal campaign period has begun so election expenses have been triggered, all polling stations and their staff are booked, nominations have been accepted (still open), polling cards with official notices of the election are all out.
Chaos and primary legislation needed to change that this stage.0 -
There are also people who really do not like Corbyn who now no longer care if he wins, like me. The Tories won’t get those votes. In my case it matters not since it is a safe seat but others...Sean_F said:
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.kle4 said:
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.Sean_F said:
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.Benpointer said:
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
Yeah right.
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It would depend how well parties to the right of the Conservatives polled.williamglenn said:
The Conservatives called the 2017 election as the party of Brexit, telling people Labour wanted to stop it, thinking it was a 50% strategy. It turned out to be a 40% strategy that also boosted the opposition up to the same level.kle4 said:
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.Sean_F said:
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.Benpointer said:
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
Yeah right.
Now it's become a 30-35% strategy, and they seem determined to make the same mistake again.
Right now, I think we'd be looking at another hung Parliament.0 -
So the planes won't fly?williamglenn said:0 -
I think it might come down to which minor parties don't stand.Sean_F said:
I still think they'd be polling 45-50%. That might be enough to lose, but I think probably not.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think a mixture of Brexit and Universal Credit puts IDS at risk.Sean_F said:
I think both would hold their seats. Both were around 50% Leave, and the Conservatives did well in both seats in local elections.TheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
Boris has managed to annoy both Leavers and Remainers today.
You can see an angry UKIP/Brexit Party candidates screaming betrayal taking votes from IDS and Boris Johnson.0 -
A GE in late May might, just might turn into a referendum. I can well imagine that in some place at least Remain, or Leave, parties might agree to put up a single candidate, a bit like Martin Bell vs Neil Hamilton.0
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Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.
Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.0 -
And what is your opinion of Aaron Banks? Or the foreign advocates of Brexit, Vladimir Putin? Donald Trump? Personally I would prefer us to be aligned with the likes of Donald Tusk than any of these tossersMarqueeMark said:
....and the largest anti-EU movement.TheScreamingEagles said:
A reflection that the UK is now the home of what is probably the largest Pro EU movement in Europe.logical_song said:
Like the new logoTheScreamingEagles said:I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
I love the idea of all the ProEU Movement agitating for an institution headed by Juncker, the sort of businessman they would ordinarily be, er, marching to have removed from office - for being an affront to all that was decent in the world they want to live in. But hey, IOKIYAE.
(It's OK If You're A Eurocrat)0 -
I can see Labour winning up to 35-38% even with the TIG included.Sean_F said:
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.kle4 said:
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.Sean_F said:
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.Benpointer said:
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
Yeah right.
They will take a bit of a hit in constituencies like Hove, Hampstead, Hornsey etc but the majorities they built up there are safe enough to begin with.
They may also take a further hit in the europhile seats in Edinburgh and Glasgow from the SNP.
However I can't see TIG doing Labour any damage whatsoever in northern marginals like High Peak, Colne Valley, Warrington S,,Keigley, Bury N et al where bread and butter issues were key and will be again at the next election.
Angela Smith's constituents were also completely scathing about her in Penistone in a recent guardian article.
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That would frankly be a disgrace...it's not all about brexit... unless we then had a 'proper' GE later in year to re-set things.OldKingCole said:A GE in late May might, just might turn into a referendum. I can well imagine that in some place at least Remain, or Leave, parties might agree to put up a single candidate, a bit like Martin Bell vs Neil Hamilton.
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That list of Tory rebels is now 7 or 8 remainers, a dozen hard liners, and not many others.0
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By 'run-off' do they mean an either/or vote? Otherwise with 2 yes/no votes we could just end up with two more No votes.Andrew said:0 -
Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....Sean_F said:
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.kle4 said:
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.Sean_F said:
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.Benpointer said:
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
Yeah right.0 -
AlastairMeeks said:
All across the land the hosts of Mordor raged.
Against the dying of the light.0 -
The Guardian is suggesting that 'there could be a run-off next week between MV3 and whatever the Letwin process produces'0
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I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.MarqueeMark said:
Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....Sean_F said:
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.kle4 said:
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.Sean_F said:
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.Benpointer said:
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
Yeah right.0 -
What a pity all that money can’t buy you a backbone.SeanT said:Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.
Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.0 -
Sadly!matt said:
I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.MarqueeMark said:
Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....Sean_F said:
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.kle4 said:
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.Sean_F said:
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.Benpointer said:
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
Yeah right.0 -
Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in0 -
The thing I think is going to be different from the last election is that people will believe there is a real chance Corbyn could be PM, whereas last time only his most naïve of supporters thought so. Voting Labour last time was somewhat a free hit against the idea of the much believed landslide of TMay.The reality of the most left wing government ever in the UK may be sobering for some.kfowkes said:
I can see Labour winning up to 35-38% even with the TIG included.Sean_F said:
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.kle4 said:
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.Sean_F said:
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.Benpointer said:
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
Yeah right.
They will take a bit of a hit in constituencies like Hove, Hampstead, Hornsey etc but the majorities they built up there are safe enough to begin with.
They may also take a further hit in the europhile seats in Edinburgh and Glasgow from the SNP.
However I can't see TIG doing Labour any damage whatsoever in northern marginals like High Peak, Colne Valley, Warrington S,,Keigley, Bury N et al where bread and butter issues were key and will be again at the next election.
Angela Smith's constituents were also completely scathing about her in Penistone in a recent guardian article.0 -
Though at least he's capable of reasoning as well as emoting.RoyalBlue said:
What a pity all that money can’t buy you a backbone.SeanT said:Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.
Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.0 -
The EU hitting out hard against the failure today and ramping up no deal.
However, Varadkar seems to be in full panic mode and so he should be0 -
Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.dots said:Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in
Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.0 -
Surely all of those are hardliners!?TheWhiteRabbit said:That list of Tory rebels is now 7 or 8 remainers, a dozen hard liners, and not many others.
0 -
Well he is applying the maxim of John Maynard Keynes that I mentioned earlier, and has gone up in my estimation because of it.Nigelb said:
Though at least he's capable of reasoning as well as emoting.RoyalBlue said:
What a pity all that money can’t buy you a backbone.SeanT said:Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.
Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.0 -
3-line whip them into extinction.TheWhiteRabbit said:That list of Tory rebels is now 7 or 8 remainers, a dozen hard liners, and not many others.
0 -
Well, both positions can be understood.Big_G_NorthWales said:The EU hitting out hard against the failure today and ramping up no deal.
However, Varadkar seems to be in full panic mode and so he should be0 -
You going all John of Gaunt on us ?SeanT said:Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.
Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.
That England that was wont to conquer others
Hath made a shameful conquest of itself...0 -
I think they do. It will be an issue that continues to damage Corbyn, and quite rightly soOldKingCole said:
Sadly!matt said:
I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.MarqueeMark said:
Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....Sean_F said:
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.kle4 said:
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.Sean_F said:
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.Benpointer said:
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
Yeah right.0 -
I would dispute the easy bit, but it might be the easiest out of these options.
https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/11116638530609274880 -
2/1 a No Deal on 12 Apr?
That is Ladbrokes attempting to mug their customers without even bothering with the mask and the blunt instrument.0 -
15th April would be latest date for Dissolution to make an election possible on 23rd May. Probably preceded by a Parliamentary vote on 12th April.RoyalBlue said:
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.0
