politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that TMay will go
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The queen is being activated.0
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Why is Corbyn grimacing at his neck tit massage.Sean_F said:
It looks like some sort of revolutionary Socialist mural. Presumably, the woman in the centre symbolises the Labour Party, nourishing the country with her breasts.TrèsDifficile said:Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange
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Glad to hear. No use just keeping Her Maj in a cupboard.AlastairMeeks said:The queen is being activated.
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"Remainers. Nuke them. Let's nuke the bastards!"solarflare said:The PM inviting opposition parties to meet this evening, where she will presumably just do what she always does and say "it's this deal or no deal or no Brexit".
What chance an Independence Day style alien invasion blitzing of the HOC.SeanT said:
Yes, that's my interpretation. But the chances of No Deal must now be well over 14%.Philip_Thompson said:
Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?SeanT said:
ON TOPIC. BETTING ADVICEScott_P said:
If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?
The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
Latest thinking:
TMay's deal and short extension: 40%
No deal: 30%
Referendum and long extension: 10%
Revoke: 10%
General Election and long extension: 5%
Anglo-Chinese war: 5%
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ROBO-QUEEN LASERS POWERING UPAlastairMeeks said:The queen is being activated.
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Can we stop quoting that weird Labour poster, or whatever it is? I am trying to keep up to date with developments from the (open plan) office.... :-)0
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She must have cancelled their Easter holidays.Richard_Nabavi said:
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3 hours. Could MPs perhaps just hold up signs saying "what I said earlier". There's been precious little to no creative thought or sparkling intellects on display for the last 2 years. Debates where opinions are frozen in aspic will not push the world forward.IanB2 said:SO24 motion goes to a debate immediately after 10 minute rule motion for up to three hours
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It does all feel quite August 1914 doesn't it? No-one (except for lunatics) wants no-deal, but no-one is willing to stop it...Bob__Sykes said:Reading that lot, I have this playing in my mind:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IglUmgYGxLM0 -
Arkell v Pressdram?Scott_P said:0 -
Yes. I have my browser window in the shape of a very thin letterbox for the same reason.Bob__Sykes said:Can we stop quoting that weird Labour poster, or whatever it is? I am trying to keep up to date with developments from the (open plan) office.... :-)
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Best guesses, in descending order of likelihood:solarflare said:
1. TMay offers to resign if her Deal passes
2. She's calling a GE
3. Revocation
4. She's legally changing her name to Raymond and going to live in Bhutan0 -
If the meetings with the leaders tonight are with both TM and Lidington my guess is she is standing down and Lidington taking over though she carries on as PM until her successor is appointedSeanT said:
I may be wrong but you did ask for best guess0 -
Mr. Flare, I, for one, welcome the supremacy of our Mecha-Monarch.0
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I had mine at dinner time. Do they mean "cancel your tea"?Scott_P said:0 -
Or perhaps the Bavarian army of Field Marshall Bayerische Motorenwerke von Blücher is coming belatedly to the rescue.0
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Given the rest of the mural, I'm assuming Mary Lou Mcdonaldsolarflare said:
Why is Corbyn grimacing at his neck tit massage.Sean_F said:
It looks like some sort of revolutionary Socialist mural. Presumably, the woman in the centre symbolises the Labour Party, nourishing the country with her breasts.TrèsDifficile said:Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange
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I'd put 4 ahead of 3.SeanT said:
Best guesses, in descending order of likelihood:solarflare said:
1. TMay offers to resign if her Deal passes
2. She's calling a GE
3. Revocation
4. She's legally changing her name to Raymond and going to live in Bhutan0 -
Pull out and nuke the planet from orbit. It is the only way to be sure.MarqueeMark said:
"Remainers. Nuke them. Let's nuke the bastards!"solarflare said:The PM inviting opposition parties to meet this evening, where she will presumably just do what she always does and say "it's this deal or no deal or no Brexit".
What chance an Independence Day style alien invasion blitzing of the HOC.SeanT said:
Yes, that's my interpretation. But the chances of No Deal must now be well over 14%.Philip_Thompson said:
Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?SeanT said:
ON TOPIC. BETTING ADVICEScott_P said:
If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?
The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
Latest thinking:
TMay's deal and short extension: 40%
No deal: 30%
Referendum and long extension: 10%
Revoke: 10%
General Election and long extension: 5%
Anglo-Chinese war: 5%0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-F2HKLzB6cmatt said:
3 hours. Could MPs perhaps just hold up signs saying "what I said earlier". There's been precious little to no creative thought or sparkling intellects on display for the last 2 years. Debates where opinions are frozen in aspic will not push the world forward.IanB2 said:SO24 motion goes to a debate immediately after 10 minute rule motion for up to three hours
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TMay is going to announce that, as many Leavers have long believed, she is actually a lizard, and is second in command to Barak Obama (who actually wasn't born in the US, but on a planet called Zog)0
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But, you can’t have that argument both ways.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.dyedwoolie said:
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holidayJosiasJessop said:
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.dyedwoolie said:
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
Plenty of working class people carefully weighed up their choice and decided on balance to vote to Leave, but get called stupid and nasty proles in response.0 -
She's given the DUP a supply and confidence agreement and told them to get on with it. Catholicism to be illegal by Friday.Tyke said:
She must have cancelled their Easter holidays.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
Dr. Foxy, that'd be a lot more likely if the Government didn't waste money on foreign aid and instead spent it on my sensible suggestion of a small fleet of Death Stars.0
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I don’t even understand it. Who is the woman ?Slackbladder said:
Mindbleach pls...TrèsDifficile said:Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange
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Sean_F said:
It looks like some sort of revolutionary Socialist mural. Presumably, the woman in the centre symbolises the Labour Party, nourishing the country with her breasts.TrèsDifficile said:Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange
Sara Pascoe?0 -
She's pregnant.0
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She'd better book the podium for Monday as well then.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
We've bought in some chlorinated chicken for you?Scott_P said:0 -
Theresa May? Or the Queen?SeanT said:She's pregnant.
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Oh, fuck.Richard_Nabavi said:
I’d rather have another 3 years of faffing on Brexit.0 -
Aha! That's the secret.AlastairMeeks said:
Theresa May? Or the Queen?SeanT said:She's pregnant.
Oh god this is insane.0 -
Arkle Vs Mill House maybePhilip_Thompson said:
Arkell v Pressdram?Scott_P said:0 -
Can she do that? She can stand down and suggest to Her Maj that she sends for Lidington. She can't hide in a corner and leave it to DL.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the meetings with the leaders tonight are with both TM and Lidington my guess is she is standing down and Lidington taking over though she carries on as PM until her successor is appointedSeanT said:
I may be wrong but you did ask for best guess0 -
"I don't know if you've been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal!"Foxy said:
Pull out and nuke the planet from orbit. It is the only way to be sure.MarqueeMark said:
"Remainers. Nuke them. Let's nuke the bastards!"solarflare said:The PM inviting opposition parties to meet this evening, where she will presumably just do what she always does and say "it's this deal or no deal or no Brexit".
What chance an Independence Day style alien invasion blitzing of the HOC.SeanT said:
Yes, that's my interpretation. But the chances of No Deal must now be well over 14%.Philip_Thompson said:
Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?SeanT said:
ON TOPIC. BETTING ADVICEScott_P said:
If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?
The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
Latest thinking:
TMay's deal and short extension: 40%
No deal: 30%
Referendum and long extension: 10%
Revoke: 10%
General Election and long extension: 5%
Anglo-Chinese war: 5%0 -
Or more like May ready for the FindusPulpstar said:
Arkle Vs Mill House maybePhilip_Thompson said:
Arkell v Pressdram?Scott_P said:0 -
Can't see May revoking voluntarily and can't see a mechanism to force her to revoke. If no extension is granted I think she says to Parliament it's my deal or no deal but either way we leave on 29 March. I've been wrong before though!0
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What's the Polish for "where the sun don't shine"?Scott_P said:0 -
My respect for the Queen is so high she makes me want to live under an absolute monarchy*.AlastairMeeks said:The queen is being activated.
(*this applies solely to her)0 -
Strap in boys and girls...this is going to get bumpy..0
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There is polling evidence that the biggest switchers Leave to Remain are WWC in the North.Casino_Royale said:
But, you can’t have that argument both ways.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.dyedwoolie said:
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holidayJosiasJessop said:
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.dyedwoolie said:
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
Plenty of working class people carefully weighed up their choice and decided on balance to vote to Leave, but get called stupid and nasty proles in response.
https://www.survation.com/what-does-the-british-public-now-think-about-brexit/0 -
Does TM already know what Tusk is about to announce at 5pm? Are they refusing an extension?
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It is obviously to stop arseholes doing what the Tories are doing therefore being applied correctly.Ishmael_Z said:
Does anyone know the facts underlying the 1604 ruling against asking the same question twice? I can't find anything on google but I strongly suspect that it was intended to exclude second debates on unbelievably *unimportant* subjects, and is therefore being misapplied here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In those circumstances he would have no choiceIshmael_Z said:
And Bercow won't let the commons vote for deal...Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Suitably, right this moment, 500m away from Downing Street, the Choir of Westminster Abbey are singing Joubert's apocalyptic anthem 'O Lorde the maker of al thing':
"Let neither us deluded be,
Good Lorde, with dreame or phantasy"
(It's on Radio 3 live right now.)0 -
Government of National Unity?Slackbladder said:
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She’s going to resign once her deal is passed.
She’ll say this exit deal is NOT THE FUCKING LONG TERM DEAL YOU BELL ENDS.0 -
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It is only a guess but we will see.OldKingCole said:
Can she do that? She can stand down and suggest to Her Maj that she sends for Lidington. She can't hide in a corner and leave it to DL.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the meetings with the leaders tonight are with both TM and Lidington my guess is she is standing down and Lidington taking over though she carries on as PM until her successor is appointedSeanT said:
I may be wrong but you did ask for best guess0 -
This sounds much more significant than the maybot simply reiterating the obvious, evermore forcefully: i.e. it's my Deal or No Deal, and we leave on March 29Slackbladder said:
Remember it has to be something that shocked the Cabinet, and made them all look "very very serious".0 -
She's resigning, and advising Her Maj to send for Chris Williamson as the next PM.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Government of National Unity?
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"Fellas.. looks like we're going to be at a No Deal, Deal or Revoke moment in 24 hours. I've nailed my colours to the mast.. I'm pushing for MV3 and leaving with a Deal on May 23rd and I'm not about to change my mind. But I appreciate that's not a universal view, and this is big stuff to go through on a whim from me when even the cabinet couldn't agree. So if you lot have another plan, it's time to shit or get off the pot. I'm not going to help you, but I won't whip against motions to sit on Saturday or any of the other procedural stuff which might get in the way."AramintaMoonbeamQC said:0 -
That was their prerogative. I have a number of my relatives that voted leave. Those who voted that way are not necessarily stupid at all. I could say possibly misinformed or possible gullible, but I accept that is opinion. There is also a large number of people that voted that way (sad to say including some of my relatives) from a motivation that was pure prejudice against foreigners. This is not necessarily limited to the so-called "working class", and far from it. This was encouraged by people like Farage with his famous poster that was designed to feed on people's fearsCasino_Royale said:
But, you can’t have that argument both ways.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.dyedwoolie said:
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holidayJosiasJessop said:
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.dyedwoolie said:
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
Plenty of working class people carefully weighed up their choice and decided on balance to vote to Leave, but get called stupid and nasty proles in response.0 -
Why would 1. cause grim faces from Cabinet? There'd be impossible-to-supress looks of glee......SeanT said:
Best guesses, in descending order of likelihood:solarflare said:
1. TMay offers to resign if her Deal passes
2. She's calling a GE
3. Revocation
4. She's legally changing her name to Raymond and going to live in Bhutan
....unless....
.....gulp.....
Boris has agreed to be interim PM?0 -
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She told them she will fight the next GE? ;-)SeanT said:
This sounds much more significant than the maybot simply reiterating the obvious, evermore forcefully: i.e. it's my Deal or No Deal, and we leave on March 29Slackbladder said:
Remember it has to be something that shocked the Cabinet, and made them all look "very very serious".0 -
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Her actually doing that is about the only thing that would make me vote Tory again. As long as she did it while holding David Davis in a headlock, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:She’s going to resign once her deal is passed.
She’ll say this exit deal is NOT THE FUCKING LONG TERM DEAL YOU BELL ENDS.0 -
More like strap on. The government is about to get shafted.Slackbladder said:Strap in boys and girls...this is going to get bumpy..
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Afternoon all
Well, this can only mean one thing. Both May and Corbyn are going to resign and order their parties to be dissolved with immediate effect. The SNP will declare an independent Scotland and Vince Cable will be left with the task of saving us all in coalition with Plaid and the Greens and the TIG.
Once done, this will usher in a centrist utopia where nobody will ever have the wobbles.0 -
He'd do a good job.Andrew said:
She's resigning, and advising Her Maj to send for Chris Williamson as the next PM.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Government of National Unity?0 -
She's written another letter to the EU.SeanT said:
This sounds much more significant than the maybot simply reiterating the obvious, evermore forcefully: i.e. it's my Deal or No Deal, and we leave on March 29Slackbladder said:
Remember it has to be something that shocked the Cabinet, and made them all look "very very serious".
"No Deal it is then...."0 -
First that poster and now a May / Jezza / Cable threesome talk...I have just had my lunch!0
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I miss the good old days when a government clusterfuck was about pasties.0
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Maybe the EU have made their extension conditional on May's resignation. That'd be, um, something.0
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I HAVE. BEEN. POINTING. THIS. OUT. FOR. MONTHS.Verulamius said:I understand that the European Parliament has to give consent to the withdrawal agreement?
When do they last sit before their elections in May?
(I think it's the 28th March, to answer your question)0 -
At the point now where I wouldn't rule anything out, because everything is RUINED.Andrew said:
She's resigning, and advising Her Maj to send for Chris Williamson as the next PM.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Government of National Unity?0 -
0
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As opposed to gormless, their usual look.SeanT said:
This sounds much more significant than the maybot simply reiterating the obvious, evermore forcefully: i.e. it's my Deal or No Deal, and we leave on March 29Slackbladder said:
Remember it has to be something that shocked the Cabinet, and made them all look "very very serious".0 -
"Nothing Has Changed" would do that in the circumstances because of the level of denial it implies.SeanT said:
This sounds much more significant than the maybot simply reiterating the obvious, evermore forcefully: i.e. it's my Deal or No Deal, and we leave on March 29Slackbladder said:
Remember it has to be something that shocked the Cabinet, and made them all look "very very serious".0 -
And then you supported Andrea Jenkyns and it all went wrong....TheScreamingEagles said:I miss the good old days when a government clusterfuck was about pasties.
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I also got Stuart Andrew re-elected.notme2 said:
And then you supported Andrea Jenkyns and it all went wrong....TheScreamingEagles said:I miss the good old days when a government clusterfuck was about pasties.
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Pipped.0
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Something's a foot - and it's not twelve inches.....
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Do you remember the discussions on whether or not a successful Brexit would bring an electoral dividend or not?Harris_Tweed said:God. Do you remember the days when everyone was sweating about whether the deal would be agreed at the September or December summit, in case there wasn't enough time to sort the practicalities out?
Happy, carefree times.0 -
I am not a royalist, but I would agree with you there. The only problem is that the appointed successor is the Regal equivalent of a hybrid between Theresa May and Gordon BrownCasino_Royale said:
My respect for the Queen is so high she makes me want to live under an absolute monarchy*.AlastairMeeks said:The queen is being activated.
(*this applies solely to her)0 -
Is it time to panic buy at the supermarket yet?
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So my guess, for what it’s worrh.
EU have turned down extension and told TM in advance.
TM is going to stand there and say the choice is now my deal or no deal because there’s no time otherwise.
She’s called the opposition parties in to tell them there will be no deal unless they whip their MPs to pass the deal.
She might throw a resignation-once-deal-is-passed in there but I think that’s unlikely.0 -
We can trace much of our current predicament to a man eating a sandwich, and a big block of stone.TheScreamingEagles said:I miss the good old days when a government clusterfuck was about pasties.
I do hope I live long enough to see the knockabout comedy film that will eventually be made.0 -
Well the EU do have a certain amount of form in imposing leaders on member states...solarflare said:Maybe the EU have made their extension conditional on May's resignation. That'd be, um, something.
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By 27. Simultaneously or sequentially?SandyRentool said:
More like strap on. The government is about to get shafted.Slackbladder said:Strap in boys and girls...this is going to get bumpy..
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Ah, you're *that* sort of intellect.Super_Jeremy said:
He'd do a good job.Andrew said:
She's resigning, and advising Her Maj to send for Chris Williamson as the next PM.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Government of National Unity?0 -
The EU won't give a formal response until the European Council meets.numbertwelve said:So my guess, for what it’s worrh.
EU have turned down extension and told TM in advance.
TM is going to stand there and say the choice is now my deal or no deal because there’s no time otherwise.
She’s called the opposition parties in to tell them there will be no deal unless they whip their MPs to pass the deal.
She might throw a resignation-once-deal-is-passed in there but I think that’s unlikely.0 -
Outstanding.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:We can trace much of our current predicament to a man eating a sandwich.
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I'm going to panic-buy in case people decide to panic-buy.
Won't it be a let-down if it's just the EU saying no to an extension?0 -
Don't you now need some special government pass to be able to watch this kind of filth?Nigel_Foremain said:
By 27. Simultaneously or sequentially?SandyRentool said:
More like strap on. The government is about to get shafted.Slackbladder said:Strap in boys and girls...this is going to get bumpy..
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Sadly the email get corrupted and HM is sending for Chris Grayling....Super_Jeremy said:
He'd do a good job.Andrew said:
She's resigning, and advising Her Maj to send for Chris Williamson as the next PM.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Government of National Unity?0 -
It’s a funny shaped thing on the end of a leg.MarqueeMark said:Something's a foot - and it's not twelve inches.....
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Maybe they're demanding that Jeremy Corbyn be appointed as PM.Nigelb said:
Well the EU do have a certain amount of form in imposing leaders on member states...solarflare said:Maybe the EU have made their extension conditional on May's resignation. That'd be, um, something.
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Am I the only PB-er with an odd desire to start drinking in the middle of the afternoon?
This is like Paris a week before the Blitzkrieg. The Bunker in Berlin as the Red Army shells exploded overhead. Gotterdammerung.
It requires gin.0 -
I have stockpiled a 2 year supply of Good Brie.CD13 said:I'm going to panic-buy in case people decide to panic-buy.
Won't it be a let-down if it's just the EU saying no to an extension?
As a non-brie-eater, it doesn't take up much space.0 -
You might want to ask Damian Green?FrancisUrquhart said:
Don't you now need some special government pass to be able to watch this kind of filth?Nigel_Foremain said:
By 27. Simultaneously or sequentially?SandyRentool said:
More like strap on. The government is about to get shafted.Slackbladder said:Strap in boys and girls...this is going to get bumpy..
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What’s wrong with chlorinated washed chickens?solarflare said:
We've bought in some chlorinated chicken for you?Scott_P said:0
This discussion has been closed.