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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that TMay will go

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    If the government tries to engineer a general election early, it does so by calling a vote of no confidence in itself. There is then a 14 day period during which other people can try to form an administration. It strikes me that this might easily boomerang on Theresa May if she tries it. The idea of someone else forming a government is not beyond the realms of possibility by any means.

    Why not pass a motion for a GE directly to avoid the risk of an alternative government emerging? Corbyn would whip in favour.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2019

    If the government tries to engineer a general election early, it does so by calling a vote of no confidence in itself. There is then a 14 day period during which other people can try to form an administration. It strikes me that this might easily boomerang on Theresa May if she tries it. The idea of someone else forming a government is not beyond the realms of possibility by any means.

    It can also do it using the method of trying to get a two-thirds majority for an early election (as per 2017). More likely, surely?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    If the government tries to engineer a general election early, it does so by calling a vote of no confidence in itself. There is then a 14 day period during which other people can try to form an administration. It strikes me that this might easily boomerang on Theresa May if she tries it. The idea of someone else forming a government is not beyond the realms of possibility by any means.

    No, it does so by laying a motion for a General Election like it did in 2017.
    Are you sure she'll get two thirds of Parliament to support that?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,149
    edited March 2019

    The Commons has done such an excellent job of directing the negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement that Lisa Nandy & Gareth Snell have tabled an amendment which would ensure that the Commons decides on the negotiating mandate for the next stage and has to approve the final deal.

    I believe that is presently being agreed by HMG and according to Lisa Nandy that would influence many labour mps to support the deal
  • 1100 comments?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    If the government tries to engineer a general election early, it does so by calling a vote of no confidence in itself. There is then a 14 day period during which other people can try to form an administration. It strikes me that this might easily boomerang on Theresa May if she tries it. The idea of someone else forming a government is not beyond the realms of possibility by any means.

    It would be done the same way ss 2017. Vote to dissolve, 2/3 required
    Parliament is not going to vote to dissolve during the final week before the deadline.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    If the government tries to engineer a general election early, it does so by calling a vote of no confidence in itself. There is then a 14 day period during which other people can try to form an administration. It strikes me that this might easily boomerang on Theresa May if she tries it. The idea of someone else forming a government is not beyond the realms of possibility by any means.

    No, it does so by laying a motion for a General Election like it did in 2017.
    Are you sure she'll get two thirds of Parliament to support that?
    I'd be surprised if she didn't, Corbyn has been screaming for one everyday since 2017, can't not support a motion now.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,904
    edited March 2019
    Is this thread to continue until Brexit actually happens?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    Is this thread to continue until Bredit actually happens?

    Is Bredit derived from edit? :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Is this thread to continue until Bredit actually happens?

    New Thread!

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    The Commons has done such an excellent job of directing the negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement that Lisa Nandy & Gareth Snell have tabled an amendment which would ensure that the Commons decides on the negotiating mandate for the next stage and has to approve the final deal.

    I believe that is presently being agreed by HMG and according to Lisa Nandy that would influence many labour mps to support the deal
    Yes, storing up a repeat of the nightmare of trying to negotiate by parliamentary debate. But that's probably inevitable, to be fair.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Tbh, the government needs to say or do whatever it takes and change stage 2 negotiations to whatever Labour want to get the WA through parliament today. Honestly, it will be tomorrow's problem, right now we need to avoid no deal at any cost.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218

    The Commons has done such an excellent job of directing the negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement that Lisa Nandy & Gareth Snell have tabled an amendment which would ensure that the Commons decides on the negotiating mandate for the next stage and has to approve the final deal.

    I'd be inclined to support that amendment ceteris paribus if I was in he chamber, it should increase the chances of May's deal - well the WA key part that avoids no deal or revocation getting through
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    If the government tries to engineer a general election early, it does so by calling a vote of no confidence in itself. There is then a 14 day period during which other people can try to form an administration. It strikes me that this might easily boomerang on Theresa May if she tries it. The idea of someone else forming a government is not beyond the realms of possibility by any means.

    That is not the only route to an election - indeed it is not the option May used in May 2017 when she tabled a motion for early Dissolution which obtained the required 2/3 vote of MPs - with Corbyn's support. The only doubt now is whether Tory MPs would be very keen for it to happen.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    IanB2 said:

    If the government tries to engineer a general election early, it does so by calling a vote of no confidence in itself. There is then a 14 day period during which other people can try to form an administration. It strikes me that this might easily boomerang on Theresa May if she tries it. The idea of someone else forming a government is not beyond the realms of possibility by any means.

    It would be done the same way ss 2017. Vote to dissolve, 2/3 required
    Parliament is not going to vote to dissolve during the final week before the deadline.
    Well I'm assuming this is with EU agreeing an extension, I agree try aren't going yo dissolve if it means no deal
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is relentless against May from every side of the chamber. I can't see how she can survive the weekend.

    I have heard that so many times in this chaos
    So have I, but if you're listening to the debate, it is striking how personal the condemnation of her strategy and behaviour now is.
    There are a lot of very angry remainer mps
    They've been stuck in the denial stage of grief for so long, they're only just now reaching the anger stage.
    No Philip, a lot of us are accepting of the situation. There is no way we can stay in the EU now with any kind of national credibility. It is now down to the terms on which we leave. I think Brexiteers will cause further damage to our international credibility along the way, and until Leave supporters stop smirking about their unexpected pyrrhic victory and start trying to find common ground, the country is going to be in a very sorry state for a long time to come.
  • @Nigel_Foremain you're making a complete dick of yourself re @Richard_Tyndall - he's always been very clear in his support for freedom of movement, he just wanted to leave the EU. Supporting UKIP in that aim was the only route to it.

    Well you must be pals because you also resort to personal abuse. He said he was a member of UKIP. Support for an outcome would be different. There are plenty of people who have differing views on here and they can be respected. Richard is not one that I can have any respect for, particularly with such a ridiculous position as that. I don't normally enjoy being rude to people, but he is clearly unpleasant so deserves it. So no, I am not the one being a dick here, dickhead!
    You are the one who started the exchanges by accusing me of being a BNP supporter. I would suggest anything you get in return is fully justified. Rudeness on here is probably excusable. Being wilfully dumb is not.
    Sorry Richard, I see no difference between BNP and UKIP. Both are parties of hatred and intolerance. If you can't see that, well that is a shame, and holding such affiliations and accusing others of being dumb makes you look, well, very dumb, even though I am sure you are not. We will have to agree to disagree.
    On a large scale, I think that Labour's hatred and intolerance dwarfs that of minor parties.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is relentless against May from every side of the chamber. I can't see how she can survive the weekend.

    I have heard that so many times in this chaos
    So have I, but if you're listening to the debate, it is striking how personal the condemnation of her strategy and behaviour now is.
    There are a lot of very angry remainer mps
    They've been stuck in the denial stage of grief for so long, they're only just now reaching the anger stage.
    They thought they held all the cards.
  • JenSJenS Posts: 91
    Full quote:

    “Dans l’examen de cette demande d’extension et des dates? nous veillerons particulièrement aux intérêts de l’Union”, a dit Jean-Yves Le Drian lors de la séance des questions au gouvernement à l’Assemblée nationale.

    “Ce qui nécessite trois choses : que la prolongation ait pour objectif de finaliser la ratification de l’accord de retrait négocié, que le Royaume-Uni soit très clair sur le fait que l’accord de retrait entériné en novembre dernier ne sera pas renégocié et que son intégrité sera préservée et que le Royaume-Uni ne participe pas aux prochaines élections européennes”, a-t-il ajouté.

    “Une situation dans laquelle Mme May ne serait pas en mesure de présenter au Conseil européen des garanties suffisantes sur la crédibilité de sa stratégie conduirait alors à écarter la demande d’extension et à préférer une sortie sans accord”
    Which I would translate:

    “When looking at this request for an extension, and dates, we will especially consider the interests of the EU, which require three things.

    “That the extension is to complete ratification of the negotiated withdrawal agreement, that the UK is very clear about the fact that it will not be renegotiated and its integrity will be preserved, and that the UK will not participate in the next EU elections."

    "A situation in which Mrs Mary is not in a position to give the European Council sufficient guarantees about the credibility of her strategy will lead to rejection of the request for an extension and to a preference for a no-deal exit"
    If France sticks to this, it rules out a long extension if the deal is not accepted by Parliament next week. Because then the extension is not to ratify the deal, and France is ruling out a different deal. So switching to Norway would not make France grant an extension, and there is no time for Norway without an extension. Also, a general election will not make France grant an extension, because a general election does not allow Mrs May to "guarantee" that ratification of the deal will follow, rather than an attempt to negotiate another deal.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is relentless against May from every side of the chamber. I can't see how she can survive the weekend.

    I have heard that so many times in this chaos
    So have I, but if you're listening to the debate, it is striking how personal the condemnation of her strategy and behaviour now is.
    There are a lot of very angry remainer mps
    They've been stuck in the denial stage of grief for so long, they're only just now reaching the anger stage.
    No Philip, a lot of us are accepting of the situation. There is no way we can stay in the EU now with any kind of national credibility. It is now down to the terms on which we leave. I think Brexiteers will cause further damage to our international credibility along the way, and until Leave supporters stop smirking about their unexpected pyrrhic victory and start trying to find common ground, the country is going to be in a very sorry state for a long time to come.
    No. We just revoke Article 50.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    Sorry Richard, I see no difference between BNP and UKIP. Both are parties of hatred and intolerance.

    Bulls**t. If that was true you wouldn't have said BNP, you switched it because you knew one was worse.
    I said UKIP/BNP and also said UKIP/EDL in the same way as Tories used to say SinnFein/IRA. Two cheeks of the same arse!
    Sinn Fein/IRA were literally the same organisation though. Sinn Fein was the political wing of the IRA, they were the same people. That's not the case here.
    Fair enough, I agree the analogy is not perfect. It is known that UKIP attracted people from BNP, and Alan Sked has accused Farage of facilitating that. There is much greater similarity between the extremes of the two groups than there is between the two wings of the Tory party. The BNP and UKIP are like the Judean People's Front and the Popular Front for Judea. The only difference is they don't hate each other!
    And yet you profess support for a party whose membership overwhelmingly seems to support the policies advocated by UKIP including massively reducing immigration and who elected a leader whose time at the Home Office was spent formulating new and interesting ways to drive legitimate migrants out if the country. That smacks of hypocrisy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,491
    OUR THERESA IS GOING TO DO IT!

    Never doubted her for a second. The greatest since Thatcher etc....

    :)
  • OUR THERESA IS GOING TO DO IT!

    Never doubted her for a second. The greatest since Thatcher etc....

    :)

    Do what? Resign? Revoke? No deal? Soil herself?
This discussion has been closed.