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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that TMay will go

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    May's Shit Deal will pass. You can quote me on this.....

    It isn’t a shit deal.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Alasdair said:

    Won't the DUP immediately call a VONC if May's deal passes MV3?

    Not if they are on board
    I think only a VONC tabled by the LOTO is guaranteed to be selected for debate.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    Sean_F said:

    A vote to revoke A50 in the Commons next week would not carry legal weight, but I think it would be impossible to ignore. I think that May would have to resign, and hand over to someone prepared to do so.

    But, I don't think there's a majority to do so. If 334 MP's oppose a second referendum, there must be a larger number who oppose revocation, without one.

    So, that leaves Deal or No Deal.
    I think she might be sweetening the Deal by offering her resignation within weeks if it passes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,730

    Scott_P said:
    Errr....someone want to point out if the MV passes, it passes. No backies.
    If it passes subject to a referendum the parliament wouldn't ratify the implementing legislation without a public vote first.

    That would also be a convincing justification for a longer extension given that it would take no deal off the table and restrict the choices to Deal or Remain.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    No deal went up . Another EU vote went up . Deal went up .

    No one has a clue what’s going to happen.
  • DanSmith said:

    Alasdair said:

    Won't the DUP immediately call a VONC if May's deal passes MV3?

    Do the numbers even stack up for MV3 passing?
    How many Labour switchers are going to be needed?
    Abstainers may play a big role
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited March 2019
    Not really sure what this meeting with Jezza is going to achieve....

    Right Jezza, Tusk says its this deal or no extension....but I demand ask for 3 months and to renegotiate everything.

    Rinse and repeat for 30mins.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Somebody on here the other day suggested May sends the crappiest emptiest extension request letter, thus forcing the EU to have no option but to reject it. Then she pummels MV3 through next week at 11.59pm metaphorically speaking given the alternative is No Deal.

    I think that's just what has happened today.

    *raises hand*

    I've been saying it for days.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2019
    DanSmith said:


    How many Labour switchers are going to be needed?


    Uhhh, if they have the DUP on board, I think Tory rebels minus Lab rebels can be max 6.

    Starts to get properly complicated if we have lots of Lab abstentions though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
    I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.
    Almost certainly, it could not get made these days. Too many interest groups would be outraged.
    "Have you seen a grown man naked?" would be on the cutting room floor, for sure!
    For certain. Also, as mentioned below, the translations into jive; and, the heroine giving a blow job to the automatic pilot; and the young girl saying "I like it black, like my men."; and the EL Al plane, bedecked with beard and sidelocks.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    I blame Bercow for the last few days, we were inching towards a long extension and then he charges in for no reason and scares the horses with talk of preventing MV3 (which the gov was going to lose anyway). Idiot.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Sadly only among the wishful thinking. Can't see it happening.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
    I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.
    Almost certainly, it could not get made these days. Too many interest groups would be outraged.
    "Have you seen a grown man naked?" would be on the cutting room floor, for sure!
    Also the helpful woman translating Jive for the stewardess.
    Nah, it would be a bit different but politically incorrect humour is still very much alive and kicking. Deadpool, for example.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580


    Oh dear, someone has to support them I guess. Does he like Tommeh too ?

    Actually once again Nigel is incorrect. I joined UKIP back when it first formed under Alan Sked. Unlike Sked I stayed in after Farage took over and then left once Cameron announced the referendum was on. They were a useful vehicle to achieve a goal and once that goal was achieved they became pointless. So I have not been a UKIP member for almost 4years.

    Now since Nigel is both fairly new to PB and also clearly suffers from some deficiencies in intelligence he can be forgiven for not knowing this and also for not knowing I advocate unlimited migration. Something I suspect might stir some concerns in his closed mind.
    An ex-UKIP member accusing someone of having a closed mind, or questioning their intelligence is hilarious!

    I used to find you irritating, but now I do enjoy your contributions as they keep confirming my suspicions of how dumb you have to be to be a UKIP supporter. Now you admit you were a member. Fantastic. Did you have little rallies where you secretly dressed up? Practice sessions where you attempted to talk about Europe without getting red in the face or rolling your eyes?

    The really interesting thing about your post is that you said you joined under Alan Sked. Sked openly accused Farage of being a racist (I am sure even you can use Google) and yet you remained part of a party led by a man accused of being a racist, and who has not sued Sked for what he said. You must have known about that. Nice one! Keep taking the tablets Richard. The great thing about freedom of speech is that we get to see those with unpleasant views crawl out from under their stones and show themselves for what they are.

    PS I have been following PB since the days of "Tim". I gave up contributing for a while and then came back. Sorry you have bene too dumb to work that one out
    That is some epic back peddling there Foreskin. Just shows how duplicitous you are.

    Still no answer to the point about supporting unlimited migration I see. Of course if you agreed then I would welcome you to the fold but as I said you appear to possess a closed mind over such things.

    And it is no surprise I didn't remember you given the inanity of your postings since you reappeared. You are the forgotten man with good reason.
  • Scott_P said:
    I think she has a lot on her plate at present
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    Scott_P said:
    I think she has a lot on her plate at present
    Are we back to talking about Veganism?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    It is quite clear now that the EU really likes the idea of the UK leaving under the terms of surrender they negotiated with May, probably more even than the idea of the UK staying in the EU. It actually settles very little really other than forcing the UK into a further 2 year negotiation having thrown all our best cards away and with our arm held hard behind our back.

    Equally, they see the political numbers in the HoC and realise that MPs are not going to allow the UK to leave on 29th March and then start negotiating from scratch.

    So Tusk is quite happy to try and force a choice on MPs between either the UK leaving unconditionally or their signing up to May's surrender, knowing that MPs will then make entirely the wrong choice. Having signed up to the worst of all worlds, worse that either leaving unconditionally or remaining, this really will go down as the UK's greatest foreign policy failure since Munich (at least).
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited March 2019
    The only thing that appears to be clear is that political journalists are lacking a clue and are attempting to deflect their lack of insider information with vaguely worded tweets. "may" and "might" are overused currencies.
  • Anorak said:

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
    And the relevant quote for Brexit:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pn0WdJx-Wkw

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    I'm sure loads of people on here were saying, months and months ago, that the concept of a "Meaningful vote" on the WA was ridiculous, because once it was agreed between May and the EU, it was that or No Deal.

    So it has proved (almost). Well done, everyone.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
    I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.
    Almost certainly, it could not get made these days. Too many interest groups would be outraged.
    "Have you seen a grown man naked?" would be on the cutting room floor, for sure!
    For certain. Also, as mentioned below, the translations into jive; and, the heroine giving a blow job to the automatic pilot; and the young girl saying "I like it black, like my men."; and the EL Al plane, bedecked with beard and sidelocks.
    Or the line of people slapping the woman having a panic attack!!
  • DanSmith said:

    I blame Bercow for the last few days, we were inching towards a long extension and then he charges in for no reason and scares the horses with talk of preventing MV3 (which the gov was going to lose anyway). Idiot.

    And yet so many confirmed Messiah like status on him
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    Somebody on here the other day suggested May sends the crappiest emptiest extension request letter, thus forcing the EU to have no option but to reject it. Then she pummels MV3 through next week at 11.59pm metaphorically speaking given the alternative is No Deal.

    I think that's just what has happened today.

    The reason why this Govt. is so shite is that it spends all day reading pb.com....?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    It's a dreadful situation. Theresa May has no sway over her hardliners. They either get her deal, which most of them can live with, or they get No Deal, which they prefer. Her Remainer colleagues are appalled at the prospect of No Deal, but are entirely dependent on Labour MPs not opposing. The Deal could pass with a split Tory party and Labour abstentions because they were bounced into it. But the Deal is only a smoke and mirrors affair to get through Brexit. The real bloodletting will start next week when discussions about the long term arrangements start. These will take place in an atmosphere of resentment.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
    I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.
    Almost certainly, it could not get made these days. Too many interest groups would be outraged.
    "Have you seen a grown man naked?" would be on the cutting room floor, for sure!
    For certain. Also, as mentioned below, the translations into jive; and, the heroine giving a blow job to the automatic pilot; and the young girl saying "I like it black, like my men."; and the EL Al plane, bedecked with beard and sidelocks.
    It’s superb!

    Also the red zone/white zone stuff and debate over abortion over the tannoy would probably be out too.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
    I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.
    Almost certainly, it could not get made these days. Too many interest groups would be outraged.
    "Have you seen a grown man naked?" would be on the cutting room floor, for sure!
    For certain. Also, as mentioned below, the translations into jive; and, the heroine giving a blow job to the automatic pilot; and the young girl saying "I like it black, like my men."; and the EL Al plane, bedecked with beard and sidelocks.
    I'm going to have to watch Airplane this evening after this.

    My particular favourites are the sub-plot where Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is going incognito as the co-pilot, and Lt. Hurtwitz, who thinks he's Ethel Merman.
  • Sadly only among the wishful thinking. Can't see it happening.
    Anything can happen in the land of Brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
    I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.
    Almost certainly, it could not get made these days. Too many interest groups would be outraged.
    "Have you seen a grown man naked?" would be on the cutting room floor, for sure!
    For certain. Also, as mentioned below, the translations into jive; and, the heroine giving a blow job to the automatic pilot; and the young girl saying "I like it black, like my men."; and the EL Al plane, bedecked with beard and sidelocks.
    *sniff - I loved that El Al jet....*

    Jeremy Corbyn: "Oh, is it meant to be Jewish? I hadn't noticed....."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    I still expect the crack suicide squad to try it.
  • Who the fuck is running this government? This is absurd!

    MORE! MORE PLEASE! More strong and stable government!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    FF43 said:

    It's a dreadful situation. Theresa May has no sway over her hardliners. They either get her deal, which most of them can live with, or they get No Deal, which they prefer. Her Remainer colleagues are appalled at the prospect of No Deal, but are entirely dependent on Labour MPs not opposing. The Deal could pass with a split Tory party and Labour abstentions because they were bounced into it. But the Deal is only a smoke and mirrors affair to get through Brexit. The real bloodletting will start next week when discussions about the long term arrangements start. These will take place in an atmosphere of resentment.

    They will also take place with a number of new political leaders in place....
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313


    Oh dear, someone has to support them I guess. Does he like Tommeh too ?

    Actually once again Nigel is incorrect. I joined UKIP back when it first formed under Alan Sked. Unlike Sked I stayed in after Farage took over and then left once Cameron announced the referendum was on. They were a useful vehicle to achieve a goal and once that goal was achieved they became pointless. So I have not been a UKIP member for almost 4years.

    Now since Nigel is both fairly new to PB and also clearly suffers from some deficiencies in intelligence he can be forgiven for not knowing this and also for not knowing I advocate unlimited migration. Something I suspect might stir some concerns in his closed mind.
    An ex-UKIP member accusing someone of having a closed mind, or questioning their intelligence is hilarious!

    I used to find you irritating, but now I do enjoy your contributions as they keep confirming my suspicions of how dumb you have to be to be a UKIP supporter. Now you admit you were a member. Fantastic. Did you have little rallies where you secretly dressed up? Practice sessions where you attempted to talk about Europe without getting red in the face or rolling your eyes?

    The really interesting thing about your post is that you said you joined under Alan Sked. Sked openly accused Farage of being a racist (I am sure even you can use Google) and yet you remained part of a party led by a man accused of being a racist, and who has not sued Sked for what he said. You must have known about that. Nice one! Keep taking the tablets Richard. The great thing about freedom of speech is that we get to see those with unpleasant views crawl out from under their stones and show themselves for what they are.

    PS I have been following PB since the days of "Tim". I gave up contributing for a while and then came back. Sorry you have bene too dumb to work that one out
    That is some epic back peddling there Foreskin. Just shows how duplicitous you are.

    Still no answer to the point about supporting unlimited migration I see. Of course if you agreed then I would welcome you to the fold but as I said you appear to possess a closed mind over such things.

    And it is no surprise I didn't remember you given the inanity of your postings since you reappeared. You are the forgotten man with good reason.
    You are really funny, but without trying. A stereotype. The claim on unlimited immigration while being a member of UKIP. You couldn't make it up! Absolutely priceless, and then calling me Foreskin, absolutely brilliant. I don't often laugh at people, but Ill make an exception for you Mr Tyndall (or should I think of some childish playground name for you?).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    DanSmith said:

    I blame Bercow for the last few days, we were inching towards a long extension and then he charges in for no reason and scares the horses with talk of preventing MV3 (which the gov was going to lose anyway). Idiot.

    And yet so many confirmed Messiah like status on him
    As someone remarked of budgets - those that are praised on the day usually end in tears....
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541


    Oh dear, someone has to support them I guess. Does he like Tommeh too ?

    Actually once again Nigel is incorrect. I joined UKIP back when it first formed under Alan Sked. Unlike Sked I stayed in after Farage took over and then left once Cameron announced the referendum was on. They were a useful vehicle to achieve a goal and once that goal was achieved they became pointless. So I have not been a UKIP member for almost 4years.

    Now since Nigel is both fairly new to PB and also clearly suffers from some deficiencies in intelligence he can be forgiven for not knowing this and also for not knowing I advocate unlimited migration. Something I suspect might stir some concerns in his closed mind.
    An ex-UKIP member accusing someone of having a closed mind, or questioning their intelligence is hilarious!

    I used to find you irritating, but now I do enjoy your contributions as they keep confirming my suspicions of how dumb you have to be to be a UKIP supporter. Now you admit you were a member. Fantastic. Did you have little rallies where you secretly dressed up? Practice sessions where you attempted to talk about Europe without getting red in the face or rolling your eyes?

    The really interesting thing about your post is that you said you joined under Alan Sked. Sked openly accused Farage of being a racist (I am sure even you can use Google) and yet you remained part of a party led by a man accused of being a racist, and who has not sued Sked for what he said. You must have known about that. Nice one! Keep taking the tablets Richard. The great thing about freedom of speech is that we get to see those with unpleasant views crawl out from under their stones and show themselves for what they are.

    PS I have been following PB since the days of "Tim". I gave up contributing for a while and then came back. Sorry you have bene too dumb to work that one out
    That is some epic back peddling there Foreskin. Just shows how duplicitous you are.

    Still no answer to the point about supporting unlimited migration I see. Of course if you agreed then I would welcome you to the fold but as I said you appear to possess a closed mind over such things.

    And it is no surprise I didn't remember you given the inanity of your postings since you reappeared. You are the forgotten man with good reason.
    I think you managed to fit your entire vocabulary into that post. Well Done!
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Scott_P said:
    I think she has a lot on her plate at present
    Are we back to talking about Veganism?
    Oh, nuts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    Would it be a huge shock if May doesn't use that as extra "leverage". Right numpties, its my deal next week or I'm calling a GE and buggering off...

    I think the more effective threat would be pass my deal or I'm calling a GE and NOT buggering off.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Sadly only among the wishful thinking. Can't see it happening.
    Anything can happen in the land of Brexit.
    Maybe you are right. Perhaps we have all gone into a strange parallel universe where a highly stable parliamentary democracy has become a banana republic, and anything remotely likely has become unlikely, and all that is unlikely has become reality. Ho hum!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    DougSeal said:


    Oh dear, someone has to support them I guess. Does he like Tommeh too ?

    Actually once again Nigel is incorrect. I joined UKIP back when it first formed under Alan Sked. Unlike Sked I stayed in after Farage took over and then left once Cameron announced the referendum was on. They were a useful vehicle to achieve a goal and once that goal was achieved they became pointless. So I have not been a UKIP member for almost 4years.

    Now since Nigel is both fairly new to PB and also clearly suffers from some deficiencies in intelligence he can be forgiven for not knowing this and also for not knowing I advocate unlimited migration. Something I suspect might stir some concerns in his closed mind.
    An ex-UKIP member accusing someone of having a closed mind, or questioning their intelligence is hilarious!

    I used to find you irritating, but now I do enjoy your contributions as they keep confirming my suspicions of how dumb you have to be to be a UKIP supporter. Now you admit you were a member. Fantastic. Did you have little rallies where you secretly dressed up? Practice sessions where you attempted to talk about Europe without getting red in the face or rolling your eyes?

    The really interesting thing about your post is that you said you joined under Alan Sked. Sked openly accused Farage of being a racist (I am sure even you can use Google) and yet you remained part of a party led by a man accused of being a racist, and who has not sued Sked for what he said. You must have known about that. Nice one! Keep taking the tablets Richard. The great thing about freedom of speech is that we get to see those with unpleasant views crawl out from under their stones and show themselves for what they are.

    PS I have been following PB since the days of "Tim". I gave up contributing for a while and then came back. Sorry you have bene too dumb to work that one out
    That is some epic back peddling there Foreskin. Just shows how duplicitous you are.

    Still no answer to the point about supporting unlimited migration I see. Of course if you agreed then I would welcome you to the fold but as I said you appear to possess a closed mind over such things.

    And it is no surprise I didn't remember you given the inanity of your postings since you reappeared. You are the forgotten man with good reason.
    I think you managed to fit your entire vocabulary into that post. Well Done!
    And it was still double yours.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    Scott_P said:
    I think she has a lot on her plate at present
    Are we back to talking about Veganism?
    Only if a shit sandwich is considered to be vegan.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    DougSeal said:


    Oh dear, someone has to support them I guess. Does he like Tommeh too ?

    Actually once again Nigel is incorrect. I joined UKIP back when it first formed under Alan Sked. Unlike Sked I stayed in after Farage took over and then left once Cameron announced the referendum was on. They were a useful vehicle to achieve a goal and once that goal was achieved they became pointless. So I have not been a UKIP member for almost 4years.

    Now since Nigel is both fairly new to PB and also clearly suffers from some deficiencies in intelligence he can be forgiven for not knowing this and also for not knowing I advocate unlimited migration. Something I suspect might stir some concerns in his closed mind.
    An ex-UKIP member accusing someone of having a closed mind, or questioning their intelligence is hilarious!

    I used to find you irritating, but now I do enjoy your contributions as they keep confirming my suspicions of how dumb you have to be to be a UKIP supporter. Now you admit you were a member. Fantastic. Did you have little rallies where you secretly dressed up? Practice sessions where you attempted to talk about Europe without getting red in the face or rolling your eyes?

    The really interesting thing about your post is that you said you joined under Alan Sked. Sked openly accused Farage of being a racist (I am sure even you can use Google) and yet you remained part of a party led by a man accused of being a racist, and who has not sued Sked for what he said. You must have known about that. Nice one! Keep taking the tablets Richard. The great thing about freedom of speech is that we get to see those with unpleasant views crawl out from under their stones and show themselves for what they are.

    PS I have been following PB since the days of "Tim". I gave up contributing for a while and then came back. Sorry you have bene too dumb to work that one out
    That is some epic back peddling there Foreskin. Just shows how duplicitous you are.

    Still no answer to the point about supporting unlimited migration I see. Of course if you agreed then I would welcome you to the fold but as I said you appear to possess a closed mind over such things.

    And it is no surprise I didn't remember you given the inanity of your postings since you reappeared. You are the forgotten man with good reason.
    I think you managed to fit your entire vocabulary into that post. Well Done!
    He had to look up some of the longer words on the Children's Online Intermediate Dictionary
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    FF43 said:

    It's a dreadful situation. Theresa May has no sway over her hardliners. They either get her deal, which most of them can live with, or they get No Deal, which they prefer. Her Remainer colleagues are appalled at the prospect of No Deal, but are entirely dependent on Labour MPs not opposing. The Deal could pass with a split Tory party and Labour abstentions because they were bounced into it. But the Deal is only a smoke and mirrors affair to get through Brexit. The real bloodletting will start next week when discussions about the long term arrangements start. These will take place in an atmosphere of resentment.

    It seems quite likely to pass, with the pincer movement of May (pass it or who knows what) and Tusk (pass it or no deal). As you say, probably a split Tory party and lots of Labour abstentions. The public will be quite pleased - decisive at last, etc.

    As you say, the devil will be in the details, and it may be that May will not be carrying those forward...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Germany rowing back on defence spending and ignoring its NATO commitments

    https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/scholz-wehretat-planungen-reichen-nicht-aus-16099293.html
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580



    You are really funny, but without trying. A stereotype. The claim on unlimited immigration while being a member of UKIP. You couldn't make it up! Absolutely priceless, and then calling me Foreskin, absolutely brilliant. I don't often laugh at people, but Ill make an exception for you Mr Tyndall (or should I think of some childish playground name for you?).

    As I said before you show your profound ignorance. I have argued in favour of unlimited migration on here for many years. I am starting to think perhaps you were still in nappies when Tim was posting on here.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500

    FF43 said:

    It's a dreadful situation. Theresa May has no sway over her hardliners. They either get her deal, which most of them can live with, or they get No Deal, which they prefer. Her Remainer colleagues are appalled at the prospect of No Deal, but are entirely dependent on Labour MPs not opposing. The Deal could pass with a split Tory party and Labour abstentions because they were bounced into it. But the Deal is only a smoke and mirrors affair to get through Brexit. The real bloodletting will start next week when discussions about the long term arrangements start. These will take place in an atmosphere of resentment.

    It seems quite likely to pass, with the pincer movement of May (pass it or who knows what) and Tusk (pass it or no deal). As you say, probably a split Tory party and lots of Labour abstentions. The public will be quite pleased - decisive at last, etc.

    As you say, the devil will be in the details, and it may be that May will not be carrying those forward...
    Revoke's still a possibility, though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,730

    The public will be quite pleased - decisive at last, etc.

    Given that it would just be the start of more interminable Brexit negotiations, who exactly is going to be pleased by it?
  • FF43 said:

    It's a dreadful situation. Theresa May has no sway over her hardliners. They either get her deal, which most of them can live with, or they get No Deal, which they prefer. Her Remainer colleagues are appalled at the prospect of No Deal, but are entirely dependent on Labour MPs not opposing. The Deal could pass with a split Tory party and Labour abstentions because they were bounced into it. But the Deal is only a smoke and mirrors affair to get through Brexit. The real bloodletting will start next week when discussions about the long term arrangements start. These will take place in an atmosphere of resentment.

    It seems quite likely to pass, with the pincer movement of May (pass it or who knows what) and Tusk (pass it or no deal). As you say, probably a split Tory party and lots of Labour abstentions. The public will be quite pleased - decisive at last, etc.

    As you say, the devil will be in the details, and it may be that May will not be carrying those forward...
    Revoke's still a possibility, though.
    I am not at all sure how that comes about
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    Scott_P said:
    I think she has a lot on her plate at present
    Are we back to talking about Veganism?
    Only if a shit sandwich is considered to be vegan.
    Is bullshit vegan?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313


    Germany rowing back on defence spending and ignoring its NATO commitments

    https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/scholz-wehretat-planungen-reichen-nicht-aus-16099293.html

    Would have thought you would be pleased? I though many people of a leaver persuasion are worried "the Jerries" were about to start rolling the panzers again?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    It's a dreadful situation. Theresa May has no sway over her hardliners. They either get her deal, which most of them can live with, or they get No Deal, which they prefer. Her Remainer colleagues are appalled at the prospect of No Deal, but are entirely dependent on Labour MPs not opposing. The Deal could pass with a split Tory party and Labour abstentions because they were bounced into it. But the Deal is only a smoke and mirrors affair to get through Brexit. The real bloodletting will start next week when discussions about the long term arrangements start. These will take place in an atmosphere of resentment.

    They will also take place with a number of new political leaders in place....
    Do you think Theresa May departing the scene will take the sting out of the situation?

    Maybe. We're heading to the Vassal State, which was inevitable once we made the marginal decision to leave the EU on false premises.This is just a taste of what's to come: EU: "Agree the Withdrawal Agreement". UK: "OK."
  • Suddenly wondering ... is it possible the EU have told May they'll delay for an election, and that's what she's going to announce tonight.

    Most likely not, ofcourse.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500

    FF43 said:

    It's a dreadful situation. Theresa May has no sway over her hardliners. They either get her deal, which most of them can live with, or they get No Deal, which they prefer. Her Remainer colleagues are appalled at the prospect of No Deal, but are entirely dependent on Labour MPs not opposing. The Deal could pass with a split Tory party and Labour abstentions because they were bounced into it. But the Deal is only a smoke and mirrors affair to get through Brexit. The real bloodletting will start next week when discussions about the long term arrangements start. These will take place in an atmosphere of resentment.

    It seems quite likely to pass, with the pincer movement of May (pass it or who knows what) and Tusk (pass it or no deal). As you say, probably a split Tory party and lots of Labour abstentions. The public will be quite pleased - decisive at last, etc.

    As you say, the devil will be in the details, and it may be that May will not be carrying those forward...
    Revoke's still a possibility, though.
    I am not at all sure how that comes about
    Politically I agree, but at least theoretically.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
    I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.
    Almost certainly, it could not get made these days. Too many interest groups would be outraged.
    "Have you seen a grown man naked?" would be on the cutting room floor, for sure!
    For certain. Also, as mentioned below, the translations into jive; and, the heroine giving a blow job to the automatic pilot; and the young girl saying "I like it black, like my men."; and the EL Al plane, bedecked with beard and sidelocks.
    Or the line of people slapping the woman having a panic attack!!
    I've never resolved whether Airplane or Ruthless People is funnier.

    It's like arguments about which is best of Alien and Aliens.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    We have no control. None at all. Our future is not in our hands. Isn’t Brexit great?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,748

    FF43 said:

    It's a dreadful situation. Theresa May has no sway over her hardliners. They either get her deal, which most of them can live with, or they get No Deal, which they prefer. Her Remainer colleagues are appalled at the prospect of No Deal, but are entirely dependent on Labour MPs not opposing. The Deal could pass with a split Tory party and Labour abstentions because they were bounced into it. But the Deal is only a smoke and mirrors affair to get through Brexit. The real bloodletting will start next week when discussions about the long term arrangements start. These will take place in an atmosphere of resentment.

    It seems quite likely to pass, with the pincer movement of May (pass it or who knows what) and Tusk (pass it or no deal). As you say, probably a split Tory party and lots of Labour abstentions. The public will be quite pleased - decisive at last, etc.

    As you say, the devil will be in the details, and it may be that May will not be carrying those forward...
    Revoke's still a possibility, though.
    Not without any leadership from Corbyn or May, it isn't.

    Getting the WA/FR approved is the easy bit; it still has to be enacted. That will be trickier.
  • So can we measure the remaining lifespan of the Prime Minister in hours or days?
    How about for the government>
    How about for Brexit?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    We have no control. None at all. Our future is not in our hands. Isn’t Brexit great?

    That's not a function of Brexit, that's a function of being members of the EU. only once we've finished leaving will we gain control.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,730
    edited March 2019

    FF43 said:

    It's a dreadful situation. Theresa May has no sway over her hardliners. They either get her deal, which most of them can live with, or they get No Deal, which they prefer. Her Remainer colleagues are appalled at the prospect of No Deal, but are entirely dependent on Labour MPs not opposing. The Deal could pass with a split Tory party and Labour abstentions because they were bounced into it. But the Deal is only a smoke and mirrors affair to get through Brexit. The real bloodletting will start next week when discussions about the long term arrangements start. These will take place in an atmosphere of resentment.

    It seems quite likely to pass, with the pincer movement of May (pass it or who knows what) and Tusk (pass it or no deal). As you say, probably a split Tory party and lots of Labour abstentions. The public will be quite pleased - decisive at last, etc.

    As you say, the devil will be in the details, and it may be that May will not be carrying those forward...
    Revoke's still a possibility, though.
    I am not at all sure how that comes about
    Boris Johnson seizes the opportunity for his Churchillian moment and backs revocation as the best way of avoiding the "Carthaginian terms" of the withdrawal agreement.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Scott_P said:
    As predictable as the sun rising....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Uk climbs 5 places on the happiness index ahead of France Germany US and Ireland

    https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/world-s-happiest-countries-revealed-how-happy-is-ireland-in-2019-1.3832505
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    No it's not that predictable. She should simply say "its deal or no deal, Parliament needs to decide now". Public aren't getting involved.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    Oh god. It sounds like my worst fears about her previous statements.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Politically I agree, but at least theoretically.


    24% chance on betfair. Maybe some wishful thinking there.

    Hard to see May doing it, but a new PM? Or a caretaker PM doing it to reset the clock?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    putting it to the people in her own way :-)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    FF43 said:

    It's a dreadful situation. Theresa May has no sway over her hardliners. They either get her deal, which most of them can live with, or they get No Deal, which they prefer. Her Remainer colleagues are appalled at the prospect of No Deal, but are entirely dependent on Labour MPs not opposing. The Deal could pass with a split Tory party and Labour abstentions because they were bounced into it. But the Deal is only a smoke and mirrors affair to get through Brexit. The real bloodletting will start next week when discussions about the long term arrangements start. These will take place in an atmosphere of resentment.

    It seems quite likely to pass, with the pincer movement of May (pass it or who knows what) and Tusk (pass it or no deal). As you say, probably a split Tory party and lots of Labour abstentions. The public will be quite pleased - decisive at last, etc.

    As you say, the devil will be in the details, and it may be that May will not be carrying those forward...
    Revoke's still a possibility, though.
    I am not at all sure how that comes about
    Boris Johnson seizes the opportunity for his Churchillian moment and backs revocation as the best way of avoiding the "Carthaginian terms" of the withdrawal agreement.
    That would scupper his chances of becoming PM.
  • TykeTyke Posts: 18
    LOL.

    I mean I would love to help Theresa but unlike you I don’t sit in parliament.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    Has she finally lost whatever she thought she had?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500

    We have no control. None at all. Our future is not in our hands. Isn’t Brexit great?

    That's not a function of Brexit, that's a function of being members of the EU. only once we've finished leaving will we gain control.
    Given the 'achievements' of those currently negotiating for us I think that suggesting we'll be in control is a triumph of hope over experience.
  • I am beginning to think this has been co-ordinated by the EU and no 10

    Lidington was in Brussels yesterday and the choreography from TM publishing her letter, to leaks that Macron would say no, to Tusk saying yes but subject to WDA passing next week, and Varadkar announcing TM will address the nation tonight

    Who knows but it is feasable
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,730
    The blame the EU strategy isn't going to be a runner.

    https://twitter.com/SkyData/status/1108413866223063040
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Dr P,

    "The public will be quite pleased - decisive at last, etc."

    I suspect you're right, which is why Labour has a problem. Jezza willing, I suspect they'll vote for the EU deal but put down an amendment for it to be ratified by a referendum. That, however, if they succeed, means several months before the deal is ratified.

    The ball is then in the EU's court. Do they allow the delay in the hope the second referendum includes Remain?

    Or have I got it all wrong?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413


    Germany rowing back on defence spending and ignoring its NATO commitments

    https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/scholz-wehretat-planungen-reichen-nicht-aus-16099293.html

    Would have thought you would be pleased? I though many people of a leaver persuasion are worried "the Jerries" were about to start rolling the panzers again?
    Why, the Germans are simply free loading on the back of everyone else. time for them to pay their bills.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Stunning direct attack on May by Grieve in the Commons debate
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Scott_P said:
    If only there was a way for the country to have a say.

    Just Revoke, Tezzie. Then reign. For all our sakes.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    DavidL said:

    Has she finally lost whatever she thought she had?
    NOTHING HAS CHANGED
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,748
    Going above the heads of MPs at this moment would be about as far as possible from the best thing to do, given that in this situation, it's *only* MPs who matter.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    DavidL said:

    Has she finally lost whatever she thought she had?
    NOTHING HAS CHANGED
    except for there being less time every time you correctly point this out
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    So, any closer to any progress today? (this would include parliament forcing May to stand down, accepting the deal, taking it out of the government's hands to have a long extension etc etc)
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    An appeal to the people. Is this a second referendum?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Going above the heads of MPs at this moment would be about as far as possible from the best thing to do, given that in this situation, it's *only* MPs who matter.
    In a keenly contested category, she is now comfortably the worst Prime Minister in my lifetime and quite possibly the worst since universal suffrage.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Scott_P said:
    If only there was a way for the country to have a say.

    Just Revoke, Tezzie. Then reign. For all our sakes.

    Then reign

    so you want her to become queen now ?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313



    You are really funny, but without trying. A stereotype. The claim on unlimited immigration while being a member of UKIP. You couldn't make it up! Absolutely priceless, and then calling me Foreskin, absolutely brilliant. I don't often laugh at people, but Ill make an exception for you Mr Tyndall (or should I think of some childish playground name for you?).

    As I said before you show your profound ignorance. I have argued in favour of unlimited migration on here for many years. I am starting to think perhaps you were still in nappies when Tim was posting on here.
    Well I confess, much as it must hurt your ego, I had not noticed that contradiction before. A UKIPer in favour of unlimited migration! I have heard it all now! Sounds a bit like a Jewish Nazi or Billionaire Marxist. You are really very amusing!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    IanB2 said:

    Stunning direct attack on May by Grieve in the Commons debate

    How he can make this speech without crossing the floor I do not know.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Scott_P said:
    If only there was a way for the country to have a say.

    Just Revoke, Tezzie. Then reign. For all our sakes.
    Best typo ever.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    It is leading, but try the question the other way round. "Do you think Brexit is a stunning success?" I suspect you wont get 90%, or even 20%.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Strangely this gives Labour MPs more chance to vote for a second ratification vote .

    If they can’t stomach supporting Mays deal they might say okay we’ll pass the deal with a second vote.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875

    I am beginning to think this has been co-ordinated by the EU and no 10

    Lidington was in Brussels yesterday and the choreography from TM publishing her letter, to leaks that Macron would say no, to Tusk saying yes but subject to WDA passing next week, and Varadkar announcing TM will address the nation tonight

    Who knows but it is feasable

    Don't be ridiculous. None of those involved are capable of that level of coordination or organisation. We have a PM whose focus has come down from a long term plan, to the next week to what votes are up today. She has completely lost the plot and really should have quit.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    Two completely different sets of briefings today. Cross-party meetings, attempts to find compromise, and "nothing has changed".

    I don't think Theresa is organising the cross-party meetings, and she may only be being allowed to be left in place to let those discussions continue in parallel, and not controlled by her. Maybe Theresa and Liddington are now two Prime Ministers..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    IanB2 said:

    Stunning direct attack on May by Grieve in the Commons debate

    Remainers rattled.....

    Grieve has put everything he owns on black. It's going to come up red.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Scott_P said:
    Give me an N, give me an O an R a W a A a Y.

    ERG have shot themselves in the foot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Going above the heads of MPs at this moment would be about as far as possible from the best thing to do, given that in this situation, it's *only* MPs who matter.
    Indeed. Plus she has tried the approach before to put pressure on MPs, and it hasn't worked because the public are happier with no deal than deal, ore remain than deal.
This discussion has been closed.