If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?
The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?
Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
Yes, that's my interpretation. But the chances of No Deal must now be well over 14%.
Latest thinking:
TMay's deal and short extension: 40% No deal: 30% Referendum and long extension: 10% Revoke: 10% General Election and long extension: 5% Anglo-Chinese war: 5%
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?
The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?
Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
Yes, that's my interpretation. But the chances of No Deal must now be well over 14%.
Latest thinking:
TMay's deal and short extension: 40% No deal: 30% Referendum and long extension: 10% Revoke: 10% General Election and long extension: 5% Anglo-Chinese war: 5%
Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.
Agreed - I don't see how they could prevent revocation, even if it might prove exceedingly awkward to manage at that point.
The member state that invokes Article 50 has the unilateral power to revoke it.
And if a member state does, can it re-invoke at a later date?
Yes but they'll be changing that soon I'd imagine. They don't want this happening again. Choice to depart will be reduced to no deal departure.
Well, if I was in Juncker or Tusk's shoes I'd be pretty damn cheesed off with the UK at the moment. That they remain polite to May increases my opinion of them! And I would really, really want to 'discourage' anyone else from trying the same sort of silly beggars!.
And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.
Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.
Agreed - I don't see how they could prevent revocation, even if it might prove exceedingly awkward to manage at that point.
The member state that invokes Article 50 has the unilateral power to revoke it.
And if a member state does, can it re-invoke at a later date?
Yes but they'll be changing that soon I'd imagine. They don't want this happening again. Choice to depart will be reduced to no deal departure.
Well, if I was in Juncker or Tusk's shoes I'd be pretty damn cheesed off with the UK at the moment. That they remain polite to May increases my opinion of them! And I would really, really want to 'discourage' anyone else from trying the same sort of silly beggars!.
Do a delian league. No breaking tryst till the stones rise from the Aegean
Perhaps the EU would help us best if it responded to the request by saying that an extension will be granted only if parliament has ratified the WA by 29th March.
Does anyone on PB know of a good, fairly detailed (obviously going to be pretty heavy reading!) guide to the way the NHS operates in operation terms, CCGs, ACTs, etc?
Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?
Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
A technical extension won't be a problem once the deal is ratified. It literally could be on the last day.
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening
Well at least she's trying something. Anything is better than nothing at the moment.
Although, on previous form, Theresa May's "consultations" have taken the form of : take this or leave it, unless you're from the eurosceptic right, in which case - could you take a seat over there please, and Mrs May will see you shortly.
If we were talking about Cameron, Clegg and Darling getting together to discuss this I could see things moving....we are talking about the Maybot, Jezza and Cable.
And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.
On what evidence?
Excluding Don't knows, support for the Deal v Remain runs at 39-50%. (39% with YouGov, 44% with Opinium, 50% with Survation).I think most No Dealers would fall in behind the Deal in a referendum, if the only other choice was Remain.
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.
On what evidence?
Excluding Don't knows, support for the Deal v Remain runs at 39-50%. (39% with YouGov, 44% with Opinium, 50% with Survation).I think most No Dealers would fall in behind the Deal in a referendum, if the only other choice was Remain.
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening
Well at least she's trying something. Anything is better than nothing, at the moment.
Although, on previous form, Theresa May's "consultations" have taken the form of : take this or leave it, unless you're from the eurosceptic right, in which case - could you take a seat over there please, and Mrs May will see you shortly.
Jezza will start banging on about austerity 5 seconds in
The entire UK: 'I don't know if you've been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal! '
Oh that's great! That's just fuckin' great man! Now what the fuck are we supposed to do? We're in some real pretty shit now man!
The country feels like Hudson right now....
Earlier on it was:
"Hey, Slackbadder, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Brexiteers will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. VWWAP! Fry half a parliamentary constituency with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phase-plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic Ed Balls breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks..."
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening
Well at least she's trying something. Anything is better than nothing, at the moment.
Although, on previous form, Theresa May's "consultations" have taken the form of : take this or leave it, unless you're from the eurosceptic right, in which case - could you take a seat over there please, and Mrs May will see you shortly.
Jezza will start banging on about austerity 5 seconds in
He'll come out with an outline agreement on bus provision.
Does anyone on PB know of a good, fairly detailed (obviously going to be pretty heavy reading!) guide to the way the NHS operates in operation terms, CCGs, ACTs, etc?
Raymond Tallis writes very well about many subjects, but this is a good one for Lay readers:
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening
Well at least she's trying something. Anything is better than nothing, at the moment.
Although, on previous form, Theresa May's "consultations" have taken the form of : take this or leave it, unless you're from the eurosceptic right, in which case - could you take a seat over there please, and Mrs May will see you shortly.
Jezza will start banging on about austerity 5 seconds in
He'll come out with an outline agreement on bus provision.
Allotment holders for 2nd referendum is a powerful caucus
Mr. Jessop, heard that the Muslim-murdering lunatic far right chap overtly wanted to add credence to the clash of civilisations, Islam versus the West type narrative that is, ironically, also popular with Islamic terrorists.
As an aside, I noted from the news footage he had Acre 1189 scrawled on one weapon. That fortress fell to Richard the Lionheart during the Third Crusade. Richard held Saladin in high esteem, a respect and admiration that was mutual (indeed, Saladin's reputation today owes something to the glowing words the Crusaders wrote of him).
Richard, upon his return, gave to Portsmouth (believe that was the city) a Saracen-sword (maybe two) as its symbol. A few years ago, some Portsmouth football fans were giving aid in the Middle East when an extremist group stopped them. Upon seeing the football club logo, incorporating the Saracen sword, they were let go.
Because Richard the Lionheart held the leader of the Muslims against whom he fought a war in high regard.
A superficial understanding of the basics of history (and I wouldn't say the Crusades are something I know a lot about) plays into equally superficial and idiotic views today. As ever, education and knowledge of history helps dispel myths modern and historical.
Well, that thought did cross my mind.. especially in the use of the word "separately". Though I suspect it's more in his role as a fixer if they need to choreograph something in the Commons.
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
I think you need to read up more about the NZ attack ...
I'm bemused by your assumptions - and indeed the class stereotypes you're so keen to throw about.
And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.
On what evidence?
Excluding Don't knows, support for the Deal v Remain runs at 39-50%. (39% with YouGov, 44% with Opinium, 50% with Survation).I think most No Dealers would fall in behind the Deal in a referendum, if the only other choice was Remain.
I don’t know.
The meme that May’s Deal is just as bad as Remain has taken a pretty strong hold amongst the Kippers.
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
I think you need to read up more about the NZ attack ...
I'm bemused by your assumptions - and indeed the class stereotypes you're so keen to throw about.
No I think you need to read up more about it, and perhaps read between the lines at what he was trying to do in terms of sewing division. As for class assumptions, as it was my point about seething rage under the surface (if Brexit us not delivered) I stand by my point that it us concentrated in large part in working class, often normally politically disinterested quarters and is dangerous to the bubble
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
You're the one living in a bubble (a self-deluding evil-spirited bubble). According to this morning's YouGov polling, either form of Leave loses to Remain in a fresh referendum by roughly 60:40.
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.
Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
"FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.
FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: OUR MESSAGE ON BREXIT IS CLEAR: RATIFY THE DEAL OR LEAVE WITHOUT AN AGREEMENT
FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.
Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
Not at all. The rage is there I'm not suggesting its universal ffs And you conveniently ignore that I'm talking about rage that politicians might not deliver on 17.4 million votes, not rage at 'foreigners', which is a straw man here. I'm off for a bit, you can yell at me later
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
Whipped up by self-aggrandising firebrands and kowtowed to by those seeking to surf on a tide of idiot nihilism to indulge their own prejudices.
Macron's intervention increases the chance of the Deal passing, non? I wonder whether that's been co-ordinated or whether it just suits both sides domestically anyhow?
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.
Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
There are a lot of 'working class' people working in Spain, Portugal, the Canaries and so on.
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
I think you need to read up more about the NZ attack ...
I'm bemused by your assumptions - and indeed the class stereotypes you're so keen to throw about.
No I think you need to read up more about it, and perhaps read between the lines at what he was trying to do in terms of sewing division. As for class assumptions, as it was my point about seething rage under the surface (if Brexit us not delivered) I stand by my point that it us concentrated in large part in working class, often normally politically disinterested quarters and is dangerous to the bubble
No - I really think you need to read up on it (at least what's been reported so far).
And I maintain my point that it is mindless and stupid and results in things like the NZ attack.
"FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.
Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.
This means she has to pass MV3 BEFORE she asks for an extension. The timescale is impossibly tight. I don't see it working.
And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.
On what evidence?
Excluding Don't knows, support for the Deal v Remain runs at 39-50%. (39% with YouGov, 44% with Opinium, 50% with Survation).I think most No Dealers would fall in behind the Deal in a referendum, if the only other choice was Remain.
I don’t know.
The meme that May’s Deal is just as bad as Remain has taken a pretty strong hold amongst the Kippers.
They were going to find something to complain about whatever the deal....and we haven’t remotely got to the difficult bit yet....
"FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.
Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.
This means she has to pass MV3 BEFORE she asks for an extension. The timescale is impossibly tight. I don't see it working.
No Deal or Revoke?
Bloody hell.
Remember when we spent arguing if ordering a posh burger or borrowing a neighbours horse would be the end of days for a government.
"FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.
Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.
This means she has to pass MV3 BEFORE she asks for an extension. The timescale is impossibly tight. I don't see it working.
No Deal or Revoke?
Bloody hell.
I'd expect the EU would at the least pass a proleptic resolution allowing the extension to take effect if given conditions are set. If they're trying to be constructive, that's a bare minimum.
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
Whipped up by self-aggrandising firebrands and kowtowed to by those seeking to surf on a tide of idiot nihilism to indulge their own prejudices.
But it exists and is problematic. That's the point regardless of how sniffy we are about the source
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.
Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
Not at all. The rage is there I'm not suggesting its universal ffs And you conveniently ignore that I'm talking about rage that politicians might not deliver on 17.4 million votes, not rage at 'foreigners', which is a straw man here. I'm off for a bit, you can yell at me later
I'd be more worried about this seething fury if Nigel's marchers were not down to low double figures by now. I realise that this is not a direct measure of working class rage but it's the best available proxy.
"FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.
Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.
This means she has to pass MV3 BEFORE she asks for an extension. The timescale is impossibly tight. I don't see it working.
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
I think you need to read up more about the NZ attack ...
I'm bemused by your assumptions - and indeed the class stereotypes you're so keen to throw about.
No I think you need to read up more about it, and perhaps read between the lines at what he was trying to do in terms of sewing division. As for class assumptions, as it was my point about seething rage under the surface (if Brexit us not delivered) I stand by my point that it us concentrated in large part in working class, often normally politically disinterested quarters and is dangerous to the bubble
No - I really think you need to read up on it (at least what's been reported so far).
And I maintain my point that it is mindless and stupid and results in things like the NZ attack.
Fair enough. I shall, but at this time do not see eye to eye on this
The PM inviting opposition parties to meet this evening, where she will presumably just do what she always does and say "it's this deal or no deal or no Brexit".
If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?
The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?
Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
Yes, that's my interpretation. But the chances of No Deal must now be well over 14%.
Latest thinking:
TMay's deal and short extension: 40% No deal: 30% Referendum and long extension: 10% Revoke: 10% General Election and long extension: 5% Anglo-Chinese war: 5%
What chance an Independence Day style alien invasion blitzing of the HOC.
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
Whipped up by self-aggrandising firebrands and kowtowed to by those seeking to surf on a tide of idiot nihilism to indulge their own prejudices.
But it exists and is problematic. That's the point regardless of how sniffy we are about the source
Yes it exists. Yes it's problematic. Instead of indulging those who mindlessly foam, they should be addressed.
Brexit is in a fearful mess. At no stage have Leavers of any stripe stopped to ask themselves to what extent they are responsible for that mess. Their inability ever to confront easy clap lines with hard truths is a large part of it.
It looks like some sort of revolutionary Socialist mural. Presumably, the woman in the centre symbolises the Labour Party, nourishing the country with her breasts.
Comments
Macron will be saying what the others are thinking. We're sliding with increasing speed towards no deal.
Latest thinking:
TMay's deal and short extension: 40%
No deal: 30%
Referendum and long extension: 10%
Revoke: 10%
General Election and long extension: 5%
Anglo-Chinese war: 5%
And who then steps up??????????
Unless Lizzie sends for Corbyn (shudders)
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=21
TMay's deal and short extension: 99%
No deal 1%
And I would really, really want to 'discourage' anyone else from trying the same sort of silly beggars!.
@PaulBrandITV
BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
Ok, but I want us to totally renegotiate from scratch...
No..that isn't on offer...its my deal or nothing...
I'm off...
Fixed that for you.
Although, on previous form, Theresa May's "consultations" have taken the form of : take this or leave it, unless you're from the eurosceptic right, in which case - could you take a seat over there please, and Mrs May will see you shortly.
All going well.
"Hey, Slackbadder, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Brexiteers will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. VWWAP! Fry half a parliamentary constituency with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phase-plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic Ed Balls breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks..."
"Knock it off, Sunil!"
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/jul/01/nhs-sos-davis-tallis-review
As an aside, I noted from the news footage he had Acre 1189 scrawled on one weapon. That fortress fell to Richard the Lionheart during the Third Crusade. Richard held Saladin in high esteem, a respect and admiration that was mutual (indeed, Saladin's reputation today owes something to the glowing words the Crusaders wrote of him).
Richard, upon his return, gave to Portsmouth (believe that was the city) a Saracen-sword (maybe two) as its symbol. A few years ago, some Portsmouth football fans were giving aid in the Middle East when an extremist group stopped them. Upon seeing the football club logo, incorporating the Saracen sword, they were let go.
Because Richard the Lionheart held the leader of the Muslims against whom he fought a war in high regard.
A superficial understanding of the basics of history (and I wouldn't say the Crusades are something I know a lot about) plays into equally superficial and idiotic views today. As ever, education and knowledge of history helps dispel myths modern and historical.
Omnishambles seems so long ago, doesn't it?
I'm bemused by your assumptions - and indeed the class stereotypes you're so keen to throw about.
The meme that May’s Deal is just as bad as Remain has taken a pretty strong hold amongst the Kippers.
“Theresa May survived longer than that with no weapons and no training.”
Theresa: [salutes]
Hudson: “Why don’t you put her in charge?”
"Oh...."
As for class assumptions, as it was my point about seething rage under the surface (if Brexit us not delivered) I stand by my point that it us concentrated in large part in working class, often normally politically disinterested quarters and is dangerous to the bubble
Om-nom-nom-nishambles.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
You're the one living in a bubble (a self-deluding evil-spirited bubble). According to this morning's YouGov polling, either form of Leave loses to Remain in a fresh referendum by roughly 60:40.
Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.
FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/20/brexit-latest-news-letter-article-50-extension-pmqs-theresa-may-bends-to-pressure-from-tory-brexiters-and-rules-out-asking-for-long-article-extension-politics-live
I shall be stocking up on bog roll....
And you conveniently ignore that I'm talking about rage that politicians might not deliver on 17.4 million votes, not rage at 'foreigners', which is a straw man here.
I'm off for a bit, you can yell at me later
And I maintain my point that it is mindless and stupid and results in things like the NZ attack.
No Deal or Revoke?
Bloody hell.
Guesses????
Mine: she offers to resign if MPs pass her deal?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IglUmgYGxLM
Brexit is in a fearful mess. At no stage have Leavers of any stripe stopped to ask themselves to what extent they are responsible for that mess. Their inability ever to confront easy clap lines with hard truths is a large part of it.
Come on PB what is it? Best guesses???