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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that TMay will go

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  • I mean call me crazy, but if May wants June 30 and the EU says either earlier as May 23 or much much longer, would that maybe not have come up in conversation at some point recently before she sent them a letter?

    They are responding to a written request and no doubt the EU lawyers have arrived at this date

    The bigger problem for a longer delay is the statutory requirement for the UK to hold EU elections in May and in order to do that, legislation has to be laid before the HOC by the 11th April and then passed, which is three weeks tomorrow

    I just cannot see a deadlocked HOC passing it, and as for the attitude of th electorate !!!!!!!!

    A long delay does not seem possible politically or legally
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Wow, the difference in interview skill between those two is quite something. She dominated that so effortlessly.
    The point here is that the Tories have clearly decided that Zadawi is the best runner they have to fulfil the Fallon role. Yet he is failing dismally.
  • Bercow deliberately extending PMQs to call all sorts of significant backbenchers (Clarke, Cash, Miliband, Cooper, Boles, Letwin).

    Fair enough though Cash is rather the odd one out there.
    Without my glasses, I read the last name as Lenin...… :-(
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    CD13 said:

    Mr g,

    If you vote for independence, the UK Parliament will stick it's oar in, fart around for three years and then tell you you've changed your mind. All a bit pointless.

    One hopes not and that the Scottish Government will put the boot in.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    That means No Deal, New Referendum, or Revoke.

    Given the time available, No Deal it will be. Unless the Commons comes to its senses.
    The cycle never changes. May cooks up some plan entirely on her own. The loyalists back her. This plan turns out not to be grounded in reality. The plan fails. We end up where we started. Rinse and repeat.

    We need to get rid of May to break the cycle. She just doesn't do reality.
    She is personally wedded to those red lines, which make everything impossible. A new leader - even, God help us, Boris - could reasonably say this Deal is shit, but the red lines ensure it is shit, so we need to budge. Then go for EEA/EFTA+ or whatever. Accept FoM.

    Or call a new vote.
    Agreed 100%
    Me too.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    That means No Deal, New Referendum, or Revoke.

    Given the time available, No Deal it will be. Unless the Commons comes to its senses.
    The cycle never changes. May cooks up some plan entirely on her own. The loyalists back her. This plan turns out not to be grounded in reality. The plan fails. We end up where we started. Rinse and repeat.

    We need to get rid of May to break the cycle. She just doesn't do reality.
    She is personally wedded to those red lines, which make everything impossible. A new leader - even, God help us, Boris - could reasonably say this Deal is shit, but the red lines ensure it is shit, so we need to budge. Then go for EEA/EFTA+ or whatever. Accept FoM.

    Or call a new vote.
    Agreed 100%
    Me too.
    me three
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084

    Nigelb said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    "Remoaner" !!!

    I didn't vote Remain mate.
    Bullshit.
    True or not, it is a nice illustration of the general case.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1108000807948111873
    It is true. I am not going to lie. I voted leave (I am in Durham North) and for very good reasons. Left of Centre. However I did not vote based on a no deal exit and the current shambolic inept handling of it by the current Tory administration is a total and utter disgrace. Peoples lives and businesses are impacted by this complete lack of movement and all the political classes do is retreat to entrenched positions. It should be about what is good for the country not what is good for Tory party discipline.
    Amen Brother! If Corbyn wasn't Labour Leader, the Conservatives would probably be less popular than the Lib Dems or indeed TIG.

    Please God let May be gone soon...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Bercow deliberately extending PMQs to call all sorts of significant backbenchers (Clarke, Cash, Miliband, Cooper, Boles, Letwin).

    Fair enough though Cash is rather the odd one out there.
    Without my glasses, I read the last name as Lenin...… :-(
    That would make Corbyn happy ... ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    Bercow deliberately extending PMQs to call all sorts of significant backbenchers (Clarke, Cash, Miliband, Cooper, Boles, Letwin).

    Fair enough though Cash is rather the odd one out there.
    He's just following Tory Central Office script of rubbishing the speaker. Who hasn't actually put a foot wrong.
    Please see my post below. You are incorrect: Bercow departed from usual custom and procedure today. As it happens, I think he has a point on this occasion.
    The fact that Tories are firing blanks at one of the few voices of sanity amidst this national chaos tells us all we need to know.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Quite. Staying to fight has been shown to be bullshit that changes nothing
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bercow deliberately extending PMQs to call all sorts of significant backbenchers (Clarke, Cash, Miliband, Cooper, Boles, Letwin).

    Fair enough though Cash is rather the odd one out there.
    He's just following Tory Central Office script of rubbishing the speaker. Who hasn't actually put a foot wrong.
    Please see my post below. You are incorrect: Bercow departed from usual custom and procedure today. As it happens, I think he has a point on this occasion.
    The fact that Tories are firing blanks at one of the few voices of sanity amidst this national chaos tells us all we need to know.
    Who's firing blanks? Everyone seems to say they agree with him doing it?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    As a hypothetical, where would we be now if Cameron had decided not to resign in 2016, and instead it was him in charge of delivering brexit?

    Cameron even messed up his own resignation. He announced he'd remain as Prime Minister for another three months but lasted only three more weeks as the Conservative Party rushed to elect Theresa May without troubling the membership.
  • More vacuum. I wonder when we'll hear an official response from the EU.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    I mean call me crazy, but if May wants June 30 and the EU says either earlier as May 23 or much much longer, would that maybe not have come up in conversation at some point recently before she sent them a letter?

    They are responding to a written request and no doubt the EU lawyers have arrived at this date

    The bigger problem for a longer delay is the statutory requirement for the UK to hold EU elections in May and in order to do that, legislation has to be laid before the HOC by the 11th April and then passed, which is three weeks tomorrow

    I just cannot see a deadlocked HOC passing it, and as for the attitude of th electorate !!!!!!!!

    A long delay does not seem possible politically or legally
    I know it partly depends on Corbyn but MPs passed the extension by quite a sizable margin. If the alternative is to crash the clown car a little over a month in the future (on the EU early date) I'd have thought the votes would be there. Presumably they could phrase it as a contingency or something - ie if the UK had left the EU by the time the elections came around, you wouldn't have to have them.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019

    As a hypothetical, where would we be now if Cameron had decided not to resign in 2016, and instead it was him in charge of delivering brexit?

    Cameron even messed up his own resignation. He announced he'd remain as Prime Minister for another three months but lasted only three more weeks as the Conservative Party rushed to elect Theresa May without troubling the membership.
    I think Cameron would have gone for a softer Brexit, EEA-style.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2019
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bercow deliberately extending PMQs to call all sorts of significant backbenchers (Clarke, Cash, Miliband, Cooper, Boles, Letwin).

    Fair enough though Cash is rather the odd one out there.
    He's just following Tory Central Office script of rubbishing the speaker. Who hasn't actually put a foot wrong.
    Please see my post below. You are incorrect: Bercow departed from usual custom and procedure today. As it happens, I think he has a point on this occasion.
    The fact that Tories are firing blanks at one of the few voices of sanity amidst this national chaos tells us all we need to know.
    You were wrong, and are unwilling to concede that and back down. That is of course your right, but it means any further accusations of bad faith that you make can be safely ignored.
  • More vacuum. I wonder when we'll hear an official response from the EU.

    Officially, after TM has addressed the EU leaders tomorrow and then they (27) will give their response

    It will be very interesting
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    More vacuum. I wonder when we'll hear an official response from the EU.

    How long does it take to type..Non/Nein?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    The way Theresa spoke to MPs I thought she was going to do a full Cromwell and say in the name of god! Go! :D
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    UKIP/EDL supporters can't fathom irony. Unsurprising really.
  • More vacuum. I wonder when we'll hear an official response from the EU.

    How long does it take to type..Non/Nein?
    It will not be no as that means no deal next friday

    I expect it will be the 23rd May but if longer the UK will have to take part in the EU elections in May requiring the HOC to lay legislation by three weeks tomorrow, ......and then pass it in a deadlocked HOC
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    I mean call me crazy, but if May wants June 30 and the EU says either earlier as May 23 or much much longer, would that maybe not have come up in conversation at some point recently before she sent them a letter?

    They are responding to a written request and no doubt the EU lawyers have arrived at this date

    The bigger problem for a longer delay is the statutory requirement for the UK to hold EU elections in May and in order to do that, legislation has to be laid before the HOC by the 11th April and then passed, which is three weeks tomorrow

    I just cannot see a deadlocked HOC passing it, and as for the attitude of th electorate !!!!!!!!

    A long delay does not seem possible politically or legally
    And there's also the EU court ruling on unilateral revocation, which is something that would have to be closed off under any extension. We'd need to pass a law either enacting the Treaty, revoking A50 or confirming No Deal, before any extension past 30th June would be granted - otherwise we have to pass the bill authorising the EU elections first.

    I'm not sure Parliament could pass a motion saying that today is Wednesday at the moment.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    I mean call me crazy, but if May wants June 30 and the EU says either earlier as May 23 or much much longer, would that maybe not have come up in conversation at some point recently before she sent them a letter?

    They are responding to a written request and no doubt the EU lawyers have arrived at this date

    The bigger problem for a longer delay is the statutory requirement for the UK to hold EU elections in May and in order to do that, legislation has to be laid before the HOC by the 11th April and then passed, which is three weeks tomorrow

    I just cannot see a deadlocked HOC passing it, and as for the attitude of th electorate !!!!!!!!

    A long delay does not seem possible politically or legally
    I know it partly depends on Corbyn but MPs passed the extension by quite a sizable margin. If the alternative is to crash the clown car a little over a month in the future (on the EU early date) I'd have thought the votes would be there. Presumably they could phrase it as a contingency or something - ie if the UK had left the EU by the time the elections came around, you wouldn't have to have them.
    The Commons would pass it if the government proposed it and didn't whip against. But May won't do that, so it won't happen, so we reach a hard barrier at the end of June.

    To be fair she can't propose it without her cabinet falling apart, but those in her Cabinet opposed to no deal should realise that if they don't make this happen now it will be revoke or no deal at the end of June, and a crisis either way.

    We must hold the European elections (or pass the deal, obviously).
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    Indeed. I have no doubt that any fair minded observer would inevitably conclude, observing our respective choice of language, that I am the one with the fragile ego.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    One MEP is planning for all eventualities:
    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1107763172302356481
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    I recall your previous decision to take a break from this forum when your posts had previously descended to this level of debate,
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    https://www.ft.com/content/016171be-4a74-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d

    UK to lose 1 trn of financial assets due to Brexit.
  • I mean call me crazy, but if May wants June 30 and the EU says either earlier as May 23 or much much longer, would that maybe not have come up in conversation at some point recently before she sent them a letter?

    They are responding to a written request and no doubt the EU lawyers have arrived at this date

    The bigger problem for a longer delay is the statutory requirement for the UK to hold EU elections in May and in order to do that, legislation has to be laid before the HOC by the 11th April and then passed, which is three weeks tomorrow

    I just cannot see a deadlocked HOC passing it, and as for the attitude of th electorate !!!!!!!!

    A long delay does not seem possible politically or legally
    I know it partly depends on Corbyn but MPs passed the extension by quite a sizable margin. If the alternative is to crash the clown car a little over a month in the future (on the EU early date) I'd have thought the votes would be there. Presumably they could phrase it as a contingency or something - ie if the UK had left the EU by the time the elections came around, you wouldn't have to have them.
    The tone of Caroline Flint's point of order to the Speaker about laying legislation by the 11th April was very much against and it looks like many labour mps will not support a longer extension
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    edited March 2019

    We're reaching the stage where some sort of government of nation unity is required, led by a figure who is respected by all sides. I recall Nick Palmer saying Oliver Letwin is adored across the house for being such a nice, polite and thoughtful chap. Worth a go surely.

    I think the leader of any government of national unity would have to someone like Emma Dent Coad or Mark Francois.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    CD13 said:

    Mr g,

    If you vote for independence, the UK Parliament will stick it's oar in, fart around for three years and then tell you you've changed your mind. All a bit pointless.

    How do you get from "not even ask you whether you have changed your mind" to "tell you you have changed your mind?"

    If you were booking a hotel room, given identical offers save that one says "booking cannot be cancelled" and the other says "you can cancel at any time up to 2 days before the booking", which would you go for?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Sandpit said:

    One MEP is planning for all eventualities:
    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1107763172302356481

    Wonder whether Nige is getting ready to depart the gravy train? :D
  • Sean_F said:

    We're reaching the stage where some sort of government of nation unity is required, led by a figure who is respected by all sides. I recall Nick Palmer saying Oliver Letwin is adored across the house for being such a nice, polite and thoughtful chap. Worth a go surely.

    I think the leader of any government of national unity would have to someone like Emma Dent Coad or Mark Francois.
    Dennis Skinner and Andrew Rosindell are also available.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:
    New PM followed by a general election and a new government. Hopefully.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469

    https://www.ft.com/content/016171be-4a74-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d

    UK to lose 1 trn of financial assets due to Brexit.

    Are they taxable assets?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder whether Nige is getting ready to depart the gravy train? :D

    Presumably his office doesn't have as much stuff in it. He's never there
  • I refer everyone back to my "is the pub open" comment of the last thread. Let's get drunk. Nothing else to do.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, Theresa May is living up to the put-down of Queen Anne: never has so small a woman sat on so big a throne. If she is threatening to quit, MPs should take her at her word and do what is necessary for her to carry out that threat. It's time for someone new.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469

    I refer everyone back to my "is the pub open" comment of the last thread. Let's get drunk. Nothing else to do.

    I did ask about a PB meetup last week!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:
    This is very big news if true. Merkel may push back, but inevitably it introduces 1001 other variables, to do with positioning within French and other European domestic politics, into the mix.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Scott_P said:
    The best thing the French have done for us since Dunkirk/Falklands.

    Now it's up to Parliament. This is a collective test for all of them,

    They have four choices:

    Deal
    No Deal
    Revoke
    Revote

    By doing nothing they ensure No Deal. They are actively choosing No Deal. It will be on all of them.

  • Scott_P said:
    Lets see.

    If he does that makes it deal v no deal by next friday
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    https://www.ft.com/content/016171be-4a74-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d

    UK to lose 1 trn of financial assets due to Brexit.

    Does Andrea Leadsom still have leadership ambitions?

    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1108047036094574593
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited March 2019
    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Scott_P said:
    Lets see.

    If he does that makes it deal v no deal by next friday
    So it should be. Enough pissing around already. The 2 year cap was there for a reason.
  • Scott_P said:
    Lets see.

    If he does that makes it deal v no deal by next friday
    Espece de.....!
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    I mean call me crazy, but if May wants June 30 and the EU says either earlier as May 23 or much much longer, would that maybe not have come up in conversation at some point recently before she sent them a letter?

    Given that as recently as yesterday's cabinet meeting, she hadn't decided WHAT she planned to request, I admire your optimistic outlook on life..
    She knew she'd be looking at AN extension. That's surely sufficient to at least sound out the EU and have an idea of what the reception of her formal request would be likely to be.
  • TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should take heed of.

    I think everyone should avoid personal insults.

    This forum is a beacon of well and fiercely argued debate and to be fair generally not abusive
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    6.2 on Betfair for no A50 extension, assuming Macron rumour is true.

    It'll probably prove to have been misquoted slightly, or omitting something key ("I will oppose if .....")
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    Scott_P said:
    Perhaps he was asleep at the time, or his attention had wandered.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Scott_P said:
    Didn't know we had any new Cabinet Ministers.

    If the French stick to the traditional response of 'Non!' I think it is good news for us. Any extension will drag things out.

    The only good solution is for Parliament to do the job for which they are elected, and decide.

    They can decide according to personal views, party views, party loyalty, party whip, manifesto promise etc.

    But do the job they were elected to do.
  • Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Perhaps he was asleep at the time, or his attention had wandered.
    Maybe a she !!!!
  • SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    The best thing the French have done for us since Dunkirk/Falklands.

    Now it's up to Parliament. This is a collective test for all of them,

    They have four choices:

    Deal
    No Deal
    Revoke
    Revote

    By doing nothing they ensure No Deal. They are actively choosing No Deal. It will be on all of them.

    A rare moment of agreement between the two best posters on the site, Sean! Salut Macron. Vive la France!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Scott_P said:
    Lets see.

    If he does that makes it deal v no deal by next friday
    And Bercow won't let the commons vote for deal...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    The best thing the French have done for us since Dunkirk/Falklands.

    Now it's up to Parliament. This is a collective test for all of them,

    They have four choices:

    Deal
    No Deal
    Revoke
    Revote

    By doing nothing they ensure No Deal. They are actively choosing No Deal. It will be on all of them.

    Revote is out if no delay permitted by Macron
    No deal won't be chosen but might default to
    So deal or revoke is the choice that they vote on I think
    And May's deal passes? She'll probably gave to agree to quit
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Scott_P said:
    They had better get a move on then.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    Lets see.

    If he does that makes it deal v no deal by next friday
    And Bercow won't let the commons vote for deal...
    In those circumstances he would have no choice
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Perhaps he was asleep at the time, or his attention had wandered.
    Maybe a she !!!!
    The decision to attack Sevastopol, at the start of the Crimean War, was taken at a Cabinet lunch at which most ministers were asleep, after getting drunk.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    edited March 2019
    Not coincidentally, I am reading - as a distraction - Five Days in London, all about the crucial week in May 1940, when Churchill and the nation had to decide whether to fight Hitler or sue for peace.

    Here we are again. This time our isolation is less heroic.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    Well you don't really contribute to an argument. More a series of meaningless contrary statements. "Is this the right room for an argument, I've told you once". Interspersed with a few insults that a 6 year old would be embarrassed to use.

    Perhaps you should try to find a room to practise being hit over the head in.
  • Scott_P said:
    'Labour' is irrelevant. It's every man for himself now.
  • Scott_P said:
    'Labour' is irrelevant. It's every man for himself now.
    Todays climate it is every person for themselves
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    @Super_Jeremy, welcome to the site. It is good to have another Hunt fan on here.
  • Macron would be doing us a huge favour if he says 'non'

    HOC would have to decide on deal or no deal
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    Scott_P said:
    Is there any guarantee that the EU would accept that unicorn?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Andrew said:

    6.2 on Betfair for no A50 extension, assuming Macron rumour is true.

    It'll probably prove to have been misquoted slightly, or omitting something key ("I will oppose if .....")

    I think Macron MIGHT change his mind if the UK said it was having a new referendum. That would be a route to cancelling Brexit, which is what he wants - especially as the expected business from the City has not arrived in Paris, instead heading mainly for Dublin, Frankfurt, and Amsterdam.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Macron would be doing us a huge favour if he says 'non'

    HOC would have to decide on deal or no deal

    Or revoke
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Scott_P said:
    Lets see.

    If he does that makes it deal v no deal by next friday
    Maybe Farage has lobbied him.

    But, I see the attraction of telling the Commons to piss or get off the pot.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    DougSeal said:
    NINE DAYS. They've got NINE FUCKING DAYS to do this. FFS.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should take heed of.

    I think everyone should avoid personal insults.

    This forum is a beacon of well and fiercely argued debate and to be fair generally not abusive
    The insults are the best bit on here, the main reason I come. Tyndal's are the funniest. Even though he is a twerp.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Macron would be doing us a huge favour if he says 'non'

    HOC would have to decide on deal or no deal

    Hed be doing the Tories a huge favour
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Some shameless self-promotion for the forthcoming final part of my trilogy: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2019/03/crown-of-blood-out-6-april.html
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Scott_P said:
    That seems to me a tad optimistic at this stage of the game...

    Firstly, MPs have shown themselves utterly unwilling, collectively, to vote for any positive action, anyway, so I'm not seeing the momentum here even ignoring the basics of parliamentary arithmetic.

    But even so, all the mood music is that an extension will be conditional on MV3. So wouldn't it need pitching and agreeing before (a) MV3 passes or (b) next Friday? Expecting MPs to act both positively and in a timely matter seems "brave", minister.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
    True, it is classic Dunning-Kruger, or as I like to call it. Jess Phillips Syndrome.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    SeanT said:

    DougSeal said:
    NINE DAYS. They've got NINE FUCKING DAYS to do this. FFS.
    You are right. Plenty of time. No wonder they are carefully and dispassionately weighing up all the options before rushing into a decision.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    philiph said:

    Macron would be doing us a huge favour if he says 'non'

    HOC would have to decide on deal or no deal

    Or revoke
    Or a longer extension for a referendum, GE, or negotiation of a different deal which would win Labour support
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    Lets see.

    If he does that makes it deal v no deal by next friday
    And Bercow won't let the commons vote for deal...
    In those circumstances he would have no choice
    Does anyone know the facts underlying the 1604 ruling against asking the same question twice? I can't find anything on google but I strongly suspect that it was intended to exclude second debates on unbelievably *unimportant* subjects, and is therefore being misapplied here.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    Well you don't really contribute to an argument. More a series of meaningless contrary statements. "Is this the right room for an argument, I've told you once". Interspersed with a few insults that a 6 year old would be embarrassed to use.

    Perhaps you should try to find a room to practise being hit over the head in.
    Hardly. Unlike you I have a clear defined position on the issues. I also have the sense to recognise that my preferred outcome is extremly unlikely and to be reconciled with that. I would suggest my position on Brexit is better understood by the long term contributors on here than most other people's, not least by those who disagree with it.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    Well you don't really contribute to an argument. More a series of meaningless contrary statements. "Is this the right room for an argument, I've told you once". Interspersed with a few insults that a 6 year old would be embarrassed to use.

    Perhaps you should try to find a room to practise being hit over the head in.
    Try not to be too hard on him, he is a UKIP supporter. Sad, but true.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    On a completely different topic, I thought this was quite remarkable for several reasons:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/20/super-smeller-helps-develop-swab-test-for-parkinsons-disease
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited March 2019
    Andrew said:

    6.2 on Betfair for no A50 extension, assuming Macron rumour is true.

    It'll probably prove to have been misquoted slightly, or omitting something key ("I will oppose if .....")

    Comments here very supportive of what he's reported as saying:
    https://www.lepoint.fr/politique/emmanuel-berretta/emmanuel-macron-refuse-de-reporter-la-date-du-brexit-20-03-2019-2302680_1897.php

    eg
    Pour une fois je dirai bravo Macron.
    Les anglais nous emm... Ils ont voulu sortir très bien dehors. Ils ont suffisamment bénéficié de régimes d’exception. Go away !
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should take heed of.

    I think everyone should avoid personal insults.

    This forum is a beacon of well and fiercely argued debate and to be fair generally not abusive
    The insults are the best bit on here, the main reason I come. Tyndal's are the funniest. Even though he is a twerp.
    I enjoy Malcolmg's insults.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I'm confused why June 30 is out but May 23 is OK. Surely same problems exist with both?

    Hypothetically if we unexpectedly revoke on May 22 then surely all the same legal problems with regards to the elections exist as if we do so on June 29. We won't be able to magically hold the elections on time.
  • philiph said:

    Macron would be doing us a huge favour if he says 'non'

    HOC would have to decide on deal or no deal

    Or revoke
    Or a longer extension for a referendum, GE, or negotiation of a different deal which would win Labour support
    Longer extension seems most unlikely now due to the EU elections and our deadline to pass legislation for them in three weeks. I do not see the votes in the HOC to pass UK EU elections into law in time
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    IanB2 said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    I recall your previous decision to take a break from this forum when your posts had previously descended to this level of debate,
    But I wasn't enjoying it then as it was all so tedious and going nowhere. Now it is fun again.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
    True, it is classic Dunning-Kruger, or as I like to call it. Jess Phillips Syndrome.
    Would you like to post a list please, Ishmael, of the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ, together with your real name and address, and details of the institute to which you wish the various parts of your body to be sent for research purposes?
This discussion has been closed.