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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that TMay will go

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  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    I'm confused why June 30 is out but May 23 is OK. Surely same problems exist with both?

    Hypothetically if we unexpectedly revoke on May 22 then surely all the same legal problems with regards to the elections exist as if we do so on June 29. We won't be able to magically hold the elections on time.

    Your point seems logical.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
    I'll have you know I've a very high QI!

    To be serious, I find a strong correlation between people who boast of having high IQs and stupidity. They may be able to do massive feats of mental gymnastics, but they cannot open a door. ;)
  • I'm confused why June 30 is out but May 23 is OK. Surely same problems exist with both?

    Hypothetically if we unexpectedly revoke on May 22 then surely all the same legal problems with regards to the elections exist as if we do so on June 29. We won't be able to magically hold the elections on time.

    May 23rd are the actual elections and the UK would have to take part if we were still a member

    11th April is the last day to lay UK legislation to take part in the EU elections

    I just do not see it happening
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    If the Macron rumours are right, oh my....
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
    I'll have you know I've a very high QI!

    To be serious, I find a strong correlation between people who boast of having high IQs and stupidity. They may be able to do massive feats of mental gymnastics, but they cannot open a door. ;)
    Isn't that what a butler is for?
  • Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should take heed of.

    I think everyone should avoid personal insults.

    This forum is a beacon of well and fiercely argued debate and to be fair generally not abusive
    The insults are the best bit on here, the main reason I come. Tyndal's are the funniest. Even though he is a twerp.
    I enjoy Malcolmg's insults.

    Malc is good fun and a proud Scot
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    Well you don't really contribute to an argument. More a series of meaningless contrary statements. "Is this the right room for an argument, I've told you once". Interspersed with a few insults that a 6 year old would be embarrassed to use.

    Perhaps you should try to find a room to practise being hit over the head in.
    Try not to be too hard on him, he is a UKIP supporter. Sad, but true.
    And you were a Tory who voted for Cameron and his referendum,you also voted for Michael Howard and his immigration plans ,plus Hague and his negative attacks on Europe.

    Maybe you are to blame for where we are now ?

    Two options,May's plan or no deal,the rest is just treacherous .
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    On a completely different topic, I thought this was quite remarkable for several reasons:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/20/super-smeller-helps-develop-swab-test-for-parkinsons-disease

    I had a fit of hypochondria about Parkinson's the other day (probably misdiagnosed caffeine overdose) and was shocked to find how common it is - in the 1-2% range for those aged >50.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    Well you don't really contribute to an argument. More a series of meaningless contrary statements. "Is this the right room for an argument, I've told you once". Interspersed with a few insults that a 6 year old would be embarrassed to use.

    Perhaps you should try to find a room to practise being hit over the head in.
    Try not to be too hard on him, he is a UKIP supporter. Sad, but true.
    And you were a Tory who voted for Cameron and his referendum,you also voted for Michael Howard and his immigration plans ,plus Hague and his negative attacks on Europe.

    Maybe you are to blame for where we are now ?

    Two options,May's plan or no deal,the rest is just treacherous .
    Treacherous. Absurd hyperbole.
  • IanB2 said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    I recall your previous decision to take a break from this forum when your posts had previously descended to this level of debate,
    But I wasn't enjoying it then as it was all so tedious and going nowhere. Now it is fun again.
    Joking aside, Richard, at times like this the site is one of the best places to find out quickly what is going on and read a wide range of intelligent responses.
  • If the Macron rumours are right, oh my....

    I hope they are
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    Well you don't really contribute to an argument. More a series of meaningless contrary statements. "Is this the right room for an argument, I've told you once". Interspersed with a few insults that a 6 year old would be embarrassed to use.

    Perhaps you should try to find a room to practise being hit over the head in.
    Try not to be too hard on him, he is a UKIP supporter. Sad, but true.
    And you were a Tory who voted for Cameron and his referendum,you also voted for Michael Howard and his immigration plans ,plus Hague and his negative attacks on Europe.

    Maybe you are to blame for where we are now ?

    Two options,May's plan or no deal,the rest is just treacherous .
    Treacherous. Absurd hyperbole.
    Nope.
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    SeanT said:

    Andrew said:

    6.2 on Betfair for no A50 extension, assuming Macron rumour is true.

    It'll probably prove to have been misquoted slightly, or omitting something key ("I will oppose if .....")

    I think Macron MIGHT change his mind if the UK said it was having a new referendum. That would be a route to cancelling Brexit, which is what he wants - especially as the expected business from the City has not arrived in Paris, instead heading mainly for Dublin, Frankfurt, and Amsterdam.
    Nooooo!! that's more months to end up in the same place - but as its France I assume Macron will do whatever he thinks will mess up Britain the most; after all, that is the job of French Monarchs.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    Lets see.

    If he does that makes it deal v no deal by next friday
    And Bercow won't let the commons vote for deal...
    In those circumstances he would have no choice
    Does anyone know the facts underlying the 1604 ruling against asking the same question twice? I can't find anything on google but I strongly suspect that it was intended to exclude second debates on unbelievably *unimportant* subjects, and is therefore being misapplied here.
    Not sure, but many organisations follow the same principle as Mike said on here (yesterday I think?). Even Parish Councils (where they are properly led) apply the same principle. It makes sense when you think about it. Imagine the Chair of the council putting exactly the same item to be debated every meeting. People would say "hang on we agreed not to do this last time on a majority vote". The huge irony is that many of a leave persuasion say we are not allowed to re-ask the referendum question at all, even if it is a different question, because, presumably, they might not like the answer.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    Well you don't really contribute to an argument. More a series of meaningless contrary statements. "Is this the right room for an argument, I've told you once". Interspersed with a few insults that a 6 year old would be embarrassed to use.

    Perhaps you should try to find a room to practise being hit over the head in.
    Try not to be too hard on him, he is a UKIP supporter. Sad, but true.
    Oh dear, someone has to support them I guess. Does he like Tommeh too ?
  • TykeTyke Posts: 18
    Zut alors at Monsieur Macron but who can blame him. If you believe that they actually don’t want the UK to leave (and I still think this is the case) then surely this is a call to arms (figuratively but perhaps literally) to any sane voices left in Parliament.

    Rarely have I ever grasped the exasperation of a politician as much as I did that of Yvette Cooper. You could sense her genuine upset at what is happening and yet May just responds as though a child has pulled a cord in her back.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    Well you don't really contribute to an argument. More a series of meaningless contrary statements. "Is this the right room for an argument, I've told you once". Interspersed with a few insults that a 6 year old would be embarrassed to use.

    Perhaps you should try to find a room to practise being hit over the head in.
    Try not to be too hard on him, he is a UKIP supporter. Sad, but true.
    And you were a Tory who voted for Cameron and his referendum,you also voted for Michael Howard and his immigration plans ,plus Hague and his negative attacks on Europe.

    Maybe you are to blame for where we are now ?

    Two options,May's plan or no deal,the rest is just treacherous .
    Did you mentally type that in green ink?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Ishmael_Z said:

    On a completely different topic, I thought this was quite remarkable for several reasons:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/20/super-smeller-helps-develop-swab-test-for-parkinsons-disease

    I had a fit of hypochondria about Parkinson's the other day (probably misdiagnosed caffeine overdose) and was shocked to find how common it is - in the 1-2% range for those aged >50.
    Yes, although it can often be kept under control for many years.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should take heed of.

    I think everyone should avoid personal insults.

    This forum is a beacon of well and fiercely argued debate and to be fair generally not abusive
    The insults are the best bit on here, the main reason I come. Tyndal's are the funniest. Even though he is a twerp.
    I enjoy Malcolmg's insults.

    Malc is good fun and a proud Scot
    I was really surprised when I found out malcolmg and Sunil are the same person. I haven't worked out which one is the alter ego though.

    :trollface:
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    If the Macron rumours are right, oh my....

    I hope they are
    Things need to be brought to a head and deciding. thats why any delay is bad I feel.

    May's deal, no deal or no leave. Those are and have always been the three choices.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,263

    SeanT said:

    DougSeal said:
    NINE DAYS. They've got NINE FUCKING DAYS to do this. FFS.
    You are right. Plenty of time. No wonder they are carefully and dispassionately weighing up all the options before rushing into a decision.
    The Creation only took six, after all. The Jezziah has plenty of time for his day of rest...
  • If the Macron rumours are right, oh my....

    Then revocation, and her resignation for leading us into this disaster, should be the outcome.

    Given the current state of things, I hold out precisely no hope of this actually happening.
  • If the Macron rumours are right, oh my....

    I hope they are
    No, it's a terrible misunderstanding. A journalist misheard him saying at breakfast 'Un oeuf is enuf.'
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
    True, it is classic Dunning-Kruger, or as I like to call it. Jess Phillips Syndrome.
    Would you like to post a list please, Ishmael, of the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ, together with your real name and address, and details of the institute to which you wish the various parts of your body to be sent for research purposes?
    That is left as an exercise for the reader.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    That means No Deal, New Referendum, or Revoke.

    Given the time available, No Deal it will be. Unless the Commons comes to its senses.
    The cycle never changes. May cooks up some plan entirely on her own. The loyalists back her. This plan turns out not to be grounded in reality. The plan fails. We end up where we started. Rinse and repeat.

    We need to get rid of May to break the cycle. She just doesn't do reality.
    She is personally wedded to those red lines, which make everything impossible. A new leader - even, God help us, Boris - could reasonably say this Deal is shit, but the red lines ensure it is shit, so we need to budge. Then go for EEA/EFTA+ or whatever. Accept FoM.

    Or call a new vote.
    Agreed 100%
    Yup. Theresa May needs to go. Three months for what? More bullying. Not going to work.
    I hear the EU aren't happy with three months. Either to 22nd May or a long one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,263
    Scott_P said:
    According to this morning's Times, nothing was decided in cabinet, and the PM sat there "like a nodding dog" in the reported words of one minister.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    Well you don't really contribute to an argument. More a series of meaningless contrary statements. "Is this the right room for an argument, I've told you once". Interspersed with a few insults that a 6 year old would be embarrassed to use.

    Perhaps you should try to find a room to practise being hit over the head in.
    Try not to be too hard on him, he is a UKIP supporter. Sad, but true.
    Oh dear, someone has to support them I guess. Does he like Tommeh too ?
    2-4-6-8 UKIP Are great.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Nigelb said:

    SeanT said:

    DougSeal said:
    NINE DAYS. They've got NINE FUCKING DAYS to do this. FFS.
    You are right. Plenty of time. No wonder they are carefully and dispassionately weighing up all the options before rushing into a decision.
    The Creation only took six, after all. The Jezziah has plenty of time for his day of rest...
    Day en dieu rather than day in lieu?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Treacherous! FFS, You leave fanatics do talk bollox. The only real treachery is the possibility that some people may have colluded with Russia, if proven. The rest that voted leave in support of Putin's objectives are simply defined by their useful idiocy, or possibly unconscious treachery. Nationalists that wrap themselves in the flag to disguise their limp inadequacies really are pathetic. You are not patriots, just small minded morons.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Interesting to read on Twitter comment about May just ploughing on despite everything as if she is tin eared. Parliament, cabinet and both main parties are unable to agree on the way forward. She is the PM, she HAS to just keep swimming!
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
    I'll have you know I've a very high QI!

    To be serious, I find a strong correlation between people who boast of having high IQs and stupidity. They may be able to do massive feats of mental gymnastics, but they cannot open a door. ;)
    Socrates had the best response to those who think they have extremely clever "The most stupid people in the world are those who think they know everything because they do not realise they in fact know nothing"
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Clearly the appetite for Brexit is no longer there and it must be cancelled. I cannot see how it is tenable any more. Every day a new story about how leave lied and cheated. This is not democracy. It is a disgrace.

    The disgrace is Remoaners like you using every scare story and every delay to try and overturn the largest democratic vote in British history.
    Oscar, after nearly three years I would have expected you to have come up with a new put down to replace "Remoaner". You are no longer setting us afire with the annihilating invective that left us so weak. Perhaps, at last, we can pop our head over the parapet and not be destroyed by your withering banter.
    Why should i give a fuck what a non entity like you thinks?
    I have no idea, but you clearly do, because you react to every minor slight to you or your political position on a public message board from people you don't know with abuse and name calling - sometimes within seconds.

    But do keep it up. You have reached a level of quality in your clever and cutting remarks that the rest of us mere mortals can only gaze up at in wonder.
    I respond because I enjoy the argument and even though your points are worthless I wouldn't want to hurt your little feelings by ignoring you.

    As I have said many times before this board is entertainment. Nothing we can say here will make a blind bit of difference to what happens.

    But I am glad you acknowledge your inferiority.
    Well you don't really contribute to an argument. More a series of meaningless contrary statements. "Is this the right room for an argument, I've told you once". Interspersed with a few insults that a 6 year old would be embarrassed to use.

    Perhaps you should try to find a room to practise being hit over the head in.
    Try not to be too hard on him, he is a UKIP supporter. Sad, but true.
    And you were a Tory who voted for Cameron and his referendum,you also voted for Michael Howard and his immigration plans ,plus Hague and his negative attacks on Europe.

    Maybe you are to blame for where we are now ?

    Two options,May's plan or no deal,the rest is just treacherous .
    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,263
    Meanwhile, the US government continues to embarrass us with their air of judicious calm...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1108335293671845888
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    All the BS cabinet briefings from 'sources' are ridiculous. If she isn't functioning they would remove her. Simple as that.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    If the Macron rumours are right, oh my....

    If it’s going to be anyone to blame for no deal it may as well be the French!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Nigelb said:

    Meanwhile, the US government continues to embarrass us with their air of judicious calm...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1108335293671845888

    He's the best troll there is
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    Scott_P said:
    Time to roll out the de Gaulle 'Non' newsreel (generally of interest only to politics/history nerds but there are more than their fair share of those among political correspondents).
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
    I'll have you know I've a very high QI!

    To be serious, I find a strong correlation between people who boast of having high IQs and stupidity. They may be able to do massive feats of mental gymnastics, but they cannot open a door. ;)
    Socrates had the best response to those who think they have extremely clever "The most stupid people in the world are those who think they know everything because they do not realise they in fact know nothing"
    Was he the first bloke who said "we have had enough of experts"?
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    I would rather an outright "non" to May's pathetic "dog ate homework" excuse of an extension letter than a "oui" but with unacceptable conditions attached.

    Either way, one suspects for the first time that we may have to contemplate revocation. No deal remains a non option, and with Corbyn refusing to let May's deal pass with Labour votes and the ERG hardliners/Grieve bloc making it impossible to get across the line without Labour support, there would be no other option if the extension request is refused.

    Objectively, I can't see why any EU state (ROI excepted, as they will be sh1tting themselves now over No Deal) would support the extension request, certainly as it has been framed.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744

    Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.
    Hmm. Yes, it'd be a huge problem if the UK tried it. The CJEU gave no thought in their judgement to this scenario, which of itself doesn't exactly help.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    I understand that the European Parliament has to give consent to the withdrawal agreement?

    When do they last sit before their elections in May?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Scott_P said:
    ON TOPIC. BETTING ADVICE

    If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?

    The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,263

    Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.
    Agreed - I don't see how they could prevent revocation, even if it might prove exceedingly awkward to manage at that point.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
    I'll have you know I've a very high QI!

    To be serious, I find a strong correlation between people who boast of having high IQs and stupidity. They may be able to do massive feats of mental gymnastics, but they cannot open a door. ;)
    Socrates had the best response to those who think they have extremely clever "The most stupid people in the world are those who think they know everything because they do not realise they in fact know nothing"
    Was he the first bloke who said "we have had enough of experts"?
    If he didn't. it sounds like the sort of thing he would have said.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    I'm confused why June 30 is out but May 23 is OK. Surely same problems exist with both?

    Hypothetically if we unexpectedly revoke on May 22 then surely all the same legal problems with regards to the elections exist as if we do so on June 29. We won't be able to magically hold the elections on time.

    May 23rd are the actual elections and the UK would have to take part if we were still a member

    11th April is the last day to lay UK legislation to take part in the EU elections

    I just do not see it happening
    I suspect it's so that some rowing back on letting the new extra MEPs take their seats could be achieved.

    But I tend to agree the difference is a fine one between knocking one off Schleswig-Holstein's number of elected members on polling day, and sacking one of them on the day the new parliament sits.

    I guess it also means the UK would at least have a plan in place for its elections before the new parliament sits.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Scott_P said:
    Are the tectonic plates beginning to shift?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.
    If the EU didn't want us to revoke they could impose irrevocability as a term of agreeing the extension, I would have thought.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    Lets see.

    If he does that makes it deal v no deal by next friday
    And Bercow won't let the commons vote for deal...
    In those circumstances he would have no choice
    Does anyone know the facts underlying the 1604 ruling against asking the same question twice? I can't find anything on google but I strongly suspect that it was intended to exclude second debates on unbelievably *unimportant* subjects, and is therefore being misapplied here.
    It was set out in The Times this morning.

    The gist of it was a disputed election of the MP for Buckingham (seriously!). The winner was disqualified by the King, resulting in a new election where the King's preferred candidate won. The HoC refused to accept the legitimacy of the second winner. A flurry of motions and resolutions resulted in an attempt to resolve the impasse, and the Speaker himself attempted to raise issues already voted on by the HoC - which refused to address the motion and created a standing order outlawing the practice of putting before the House a motion already voted on.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    edited March 2019

    I understand that the European Parliament has to give consent to the withdrawal agreement?

    When do they last sit before their elections in May?

    Another reason why I imagine an extension will be conditional on MV3 passing next week.

    (EDIT to add: 15-18 April is the last sitting, I think)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Rather ironic that the undemocratic EU is now controlling the timetable on the basis of the sanctity of their elections and Parliament.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    I note the minister again states the Govt has contacted 150,000 business to help prepare for leaving the EU. I have been winding down my business and retired as of this month, but the Govt does not know that. My company is still registered with companies house as active with all returns up to date and I have filed corporation and Vat returns up to the last return date.

    I have received not one iota of information from the Govt on anything to do with preparing for Brexit. Most of my ex-customers are based in the EU.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    dixiedean said:

    Rather ironic that the undemocratic EU is now controlling the timetable on the basis of the sanctity of their elections and Parliament.

    At least that is the reason they give.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Nigelb said:

    Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.
    Agreed - I don't see how they could prevent revocation, even if it might prove exceedingly awkward to manage at that point.
    The member state that invokes Article 50 has the unilateral power to revoke it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rather ironic that the undemocratic EU is now controlling the timetable on the basis of the sanctity of their elections and Parliament.

    At least that is the reason they give.
    Indeed. Either true or top trolling.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.
    If the EU didn't want us to revoke they could impose irrevocability as a term of agreeing the extension, I would have thought.
    I don't know if that would be legal under the EU treaties.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    Lets see.

    If he does that makes it deal v no deal by next friday
    And Bercow won't let the commons vote for deal...
    In those circumstances he would have no choice
    Does anyone know the facts underlying the 1604 ruling against asking the same question twice? I can't find anything on google but I strongly suspect that it was intended to exclude second debates on unbelievably *unimportant* subjects, and is therefore being misapplied here.
    It was set out in The Times this morning.

    The gist of it was a disputed election of the MP for Buckingham (seriously!). The winner was disqualified by the King, resulting in a new election where the King's preferred candidate won. The HoC refused to accept the legitimacy of the second winner. A flurry of motions and resolutions resulted in an attempt to resolve the impasse, and the Speaker himself attempted to raise issues already voted on by the HoC - which refused to address the motion and created a standing order outlawing the practice of putting before the House a motion already voted on.
    Thank you! I will have a look at the Times. LOL about it being an anti-Speaker rule by origin.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Scott_P said:
    It's all irrelevant, the French are pulling the trigger. They think parliament will fold and accept the Deal - or revoke. Either suits the Frogs more than continued faffing.
  • SeanT said:
    Ratify the deal could mean before May 22 - or now.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Funny, the game has been declared over scores of times over the past few months. Yet, the game somehow continues.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    edited March 2019
    When Cameron flounced off on 24th June 2016, reportedly telling advisers that he had no appetite to deal with "all the shit" of Brexit, we all assumed he was being bone idle.

    I think he has proven to be far more perceptive than we gave him credit for. (And he had a majority).

    Of course, something better than a C- effort on the "renegotiation" and he might just have squeaked home 52/48 the other way....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    SeanT said:
    Ratify the deal could mean before May 22 - or now.
    Or after!
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Thankyou France. At least the pointless agony will be finished in nine days, one way or the other, then we can FINALLY move on to continuous horror.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SeanT said:
    BOOM!

    Good. Maybe Parliament will stop dicking around and make a damned decision.

    Wonder if Bercow will find a reason to allow a new vote now?
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    God. Do you remember the days when everyone was sweating about whether the deal would be agreed at the September or December summit, in case there wasn't enough time to sort the practicalities out?

    Happy, carefree times.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    SeanT said:
    Ratify the deal could mean before May 22 - or now.
    It means before April 29. Thats it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    When Cameron flounced off on 24th June 2016, reportedly telling advisers that he had no appetite to deal with "all the shit" of Brexit, we all assumed he was being bone idle.

    I think he has proven to be far more perceptive than we gave him credit for. (And he had a majority).

    Of course, something better than a C- effort on the "renegotiation" and he might just have squeaked home 52/48 the other way....

    That renegotiation is looking like a triple A* compared with everything that has followed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    _Anazina_ said:

    Funny, the game has been declared over scores of times over the past few months. Yet, the game somehow continues.
    Too many people enjoy the game to want it to stop.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    As Dr Strange said. 'We're in the endgame now'.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744

    I understand that the European Parliament has to give consent to the withdrawal agreement?

    When do they last sit before their elections in May?

    mid-April, IIRC. Although their term runs through to July 1 and they could theoretically be recalled, if necessary.

    More realistic is that they give their consent before they pack up and go back to their constituencies, whether or not Westminster has done so. if they did, that would mean that *only* the deal the EP had ratified could be approved by MPs, and that no further negotiations could amend or add to the deal documents.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362


    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    Lets see.

    If he does that makes it deal v no deal by next friday
    And Bercow won't let the commons vote for deal...
    In those circumstances he would have no choice
    Does anyone know the facts underlying the 1604 ruling against asking the same question twice? I can't find anything on google but I strongly suspect that it was intended to exclude second debates on unbelievably *unimportant* subjects, and is therefore being misapplied here.
    It was set out in The Times this morning.

    The gist of it was a disputed election of the MP for Buckingham (seriously!). The winner was disqualified by the King, resulting in a new election where the King's preferred candidate won. The HoC refused to accept the legitimacy of the second winner. A flurry of motions and resolutions resulted in an attempt to resolve the impasse, and the Speaker himself attempted to raise issues already voted on by the HoC - which refused to address the motion and created a standing order outlawing the practice of putting before the House a motion already voted on.
    Thank you! I will have a look at the Times. LOL about it being an anti-Speaker rule by origin.
    LOL indeed. Quite an interesting parallel of a political impasse, with the Speaker front and centre. Sadly The Times doesn't have a very lengthy piece on it, it was only a paragraph or so, so not much more than what I have summarised above.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    God. Do you remember the days when everyone was sweating about whether the deal would be agreed at the September or December summit, in case there wasn't enough time to sort the practicalities out?

    Happy, carefree times.

    I certainly thought that striking a deal with the EU would be much more difficult than striking one with the House of Commons.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited March 2019



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sean_F said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
    I'll have you know I've a very high QI!

    To be serious, I find a strong correlation between people who boast of having high IQs and stupidity. They may be able to do massive feats of mental gymnastics, but they cannot open a door. ;)
    Socrates had the best response to those who think they have extremely clever "The most stupid people in the world are those who think they know everything because they do not realise they in fact know nothing"
    Was he the first bloke who said "we have had enough of experts"?
    If he didn't. it sounds like the sort of thing he would have said.
    With respect, that is absolutely 100% wrong. It is a very clear strand of Socratic thought that e.g. if you are ill you go to a doctor, if you want a house built you go to an architect, rather than take the advice of an unqualified randomer - see the opening of the Crito for instance. This was his and Plato's (in the Republic) objection to democracy, that countries should be governed by experts in governing, not by the masses.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.
    If the EU didn't want us to revoke they could impose irrevocability as a term of agreeing the extension, I would have thought.
    I don't know if that would be legal under the EU treaties.
    I suspect that the ECJ ruling has made unconditional revoke an option right up until the moment the treaties cease to apply. Undoubtedly messy though that would be.

    No doubt why the Commission would prefer this to be May 23 than June 30.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,497
    _Anazina_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.
    Agreed - I don't see how they could prevent revocation, even if it might prove exceedingly awkward to manage at that point.
    The member state that invokes Article 50 has the unilateral power to revoke it.
    And if a member state does, can it re-invoke at a later date?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    ON TOPIC. BETTING ADVICE

    If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?

    The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
    Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?

    Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should heed.

    Honours are fairly evenly divided, actually. "Swivel eyed" and similar are pretty tedious, too.

    It is also quite striking how the posters on both sides who tend to call other people morons most often are themselves in the bottom 10% of posters ranked by IQ.
    I'll have you know I've a very high QI!

    To be serious, I find a strong correlation between people who boast of having high IQs and stupidity. They may be able to do massive feats of mental gymnastics, but they cannot open a door. ;)
    Socrates had the best response to those who think they have extremely clever "The most stupid people in the world are those who think they know everything because they do not realise they in fact know nothing"
    Was he the first bloke who said "we have had enough of experts"?
    If he didn't. it sounds like the sort of thing he would have said.
    With respect, that is absolutely 100% wrong. It is a very clear strand of Socratic thought that e.g. if you are ill you go to a doctor, if you want a house built you go to an architect, rather than take the advice of an unqualified randomer - see the opening of the Crito for instance. This was his and Plato's (in the Republic) objection to democracy, that countries should be governed by experts in governing, not by the masses.
    You sound like an expert on the subject. 'Nuff said.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    Actually:

    Game over, man! Game over!
  • Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    _Anazina_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.
    Agreed - I don't see how they could prevent revocation, even if it might prove exceedingly awkward to manage at that point.
    The member state that invokes Article 50 has the unilateral power to revoke it.
    And if a member state does, can it re-invoke at a later date?
    Yes but they'll be changing that soon I'd imagine. They don't want this happening again. Choice to depart will be reduced to no deal departure.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    Actually:

    Game over, man! Game over!
    The entire UK: 'I don't know if you've been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal! '

    Oh that's great! That's just fuckin' great man! Now what the fuck are we supposed to do? We're in some real pretty shit now man!

    The country feels like Hudson right now....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.

    Nothing has changed?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    Sean_F said:

    God. Do you remember the days when everyone was sweating about whether the deal would be agreed at the September or December summit, in case there wasn't enough time to sort the practicalities out?

    Happy, carefree times.

    I certainly thought that striking a deal with the EU would be much more difficult than striking one with the House of Commons.
    I thought the opposite (and I believe I said so on here): that how the f**k can we negotiate with the EU when we can't even agree a position amongst ourselves? That was obviously the situation even before the referendum, and the closeness of the referendum made matters much worse.
  • dixiedean said:

    Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.

    Nothing has changed?
    Red lines, the people have spoken etc etc
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.

    Nothing has changed?
This discussion has been closed.