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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that TMay will go

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  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    So, Tusk's statement rules out a referendum, one more outcome off the list. Deal, no-deal, or revoke.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Tusk says June 30th might be OK, but he'll have to check with the others, like.

    Oh, conditional upon MV3 passing.

    We're doomed, lads.

    I wonder if Tusk refers to his speeches as coming straight from the elephant's mouth.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Tusk has just increased the likelihood of Revoke massively.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    SeanT said:

    Am I the only PB-er with an odd desire to start drinking in the middle of the afternoon?

    This is like Paris a week before the Blitzkrieg. The Bunker in Berlin as the Red Army shells exploded overhead. Gotterdammerung.

    It requires gin.

    I've been saying lets go to the pub for fucking hours.

    At 6:30 I attend the Free From Food Awards. Its a Free Bar...
    A stiff drink is called for. A shame this government could not organise a piss up in a brewery.

    If someone had told me, two years ago, that we would be in this position now, I would never have believed it. I assumed the government would be at least competent enough to ensure an orderly transition.

    No deal, obviously, cannot be allowed to happen. It might have, had we started making adequate preparation two years ago. Even then it would have been unwise. But to allow it to happen now would be scorched earth. A dereliction of duty.

    Theresa. Revoke, then resign, and give your successor a chance to clean up the almighty mess you have made.

    Yes, I am aware of the blistering irony that revocation is probably the only way we can "take back control" for now. Revoke, then take as long as necessary to work out a plan for either a workable deal or an orderly transition to no deal, and yes, probably put the final settlement to the people before invoking article 50 again.

    It has come to this.

    Gin.
  • Scott_P said:
    Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no deal
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Eagles, no, but I did have the joy of posterior camera at one point.

    I have to admit, the most difficult bit was not laughing when the doctor said "You're doing well", which I think is meant to be reassuring but the subtext I got was "You're talented at taking it up the arse".

    He reckoned it was a 10" affair, but I think it was 7" at the most.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    So I bet May's lectern moment is just going to be more of the same. She'll stand in fron of No. 10 and say "I have told the opposition parties that if my deal passes at the third attempt we will have an extension to sort out the details then Brexit in an orderly fashion. If my deal doesn't pass then we will no deal and you can blame everyone who voted the deal down".
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Scott_P said:
    From the reports, I'm not clear what he's said.

    That any extension would be conditional on the deal passing?

    Or that an extension would be a short one only if the deal passed?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Andrew said:

    So, Tusk's statement rules out a referendum, one more outcome off the list. Deal, no-deal, or revoke.

    Actually I don't think he quite did that, although it will probably be seen that way. After all we haven't asked for a long extension for the purpose of holding a referendum.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Tough message from EU: you're screwed and it's your fault.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Andrew said:

    So, Tusk's statement rules out a referendum, one more outcome off the list. Deal, no-deal, or revoke.

    Does it tho? If we came back and asked for an extension to have a referendum, I still think they would agree.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    edited March 2019

    Mr. Eagles, no, but I did have the joy of posterior camera at one point.

    I have to admit, the most difficult bit was not laughing when the doctor said "You're doing well", which I think is meant to be reassuring but the subtext I got was "You're talented at taking it up the arse".

    He reckoned it was a 10" affair, but I think it was 7" at the most.

    It's when they jiggle the thing about and say things like 'have a look at that there; no down a bit, no, to your left.'
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Eagles,

    I hope it's not a stomach complaint caused by not eating enough pineapple with your Pizza.

    We're getting a big build-up now, I hope it's worthwhile (Mrs May not Mr Eagles).
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:
    They were supposed to be the non-racist wing of UKIP!
    "Relatively" non-racist. Like your Nan compared to a chap with a swastika tattoo.
    Great comment
  • Chris said:

    Scott_P said:
    From the reports, I'm not clear what he's said.

    That any extension would be conditional on the deal passing?

    Or that an extension would be a short one only if the deal passed?
    The answer was clear that to consider an extension MV3 needs to pass
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,747
    SeanT said:

    But she hasn't got the political capital or power to do any of that. She's marooned.

    Only parliament can collectively choose a Deal, revote, etc.
    Indeed, she hasn't.

    However, she can now legitimately claim that it's her deal or no deal or revoke - and that the absence of a decision *now* is tantamount to No Deal.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    Andrew said:

    So, Tusk's statement rules out a referendum, one more outcome off the list. Deal, no-deal, or revoke.

    Actually I don't think he quite did that, although it will probably be seen that way. After all we haven't asked for a long extension for the purpose of holding a referendum.
    Yes, exactly
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    Tusk's statement is fine. There is no extension to faff around. It's Deal, No Deal, Revoke.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Cue for outrage...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47644603

    However, this does not deal with possibilities of voter fraud via postal votes.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    God. Do you remember the days when everyone was sweating about whether the deal would be agreed at the September or December summit, in case there wasn't enough time to sort the practicalities out?

    Happy, carefree times.

    Do you remember the discussions on whether or not a successful Brexit would bring an electoral dividend or not?
    It's going to be great
    *sad, bitter laughter*

    When we are eating the last rat in the freezing wastes just outside Reading I shall tell my grandkids that I voted Leave as a bit of a joke, on a sunny Primrose Hill afternoon, happy in the knowledge that Remain would win.

    Then my grandchildren will kill me.

    Only because they’re hungry

    Think of it as your final service.

    (In happier news we have just opened our first office outside London)
    Hartlepool?
    Cambridge.

    (The Partners cover the West Country, the Summer Country and Hampshire well enough from their homes)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    This does put labour in a little bit of a bind. The game of chicken will finish one way or another
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Endillion said:

    Tusk says June 30th might be OK, but he'll have to check with the others, like.

    Oh, conditional upon MV3 passing.

    We're doomed, lads.

    I wonder if Tusk refers to his speeches as coming straight from the elephant's mouth.
    I would say that ivorything he says, he says for a reason. Well, that is what I herd.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    So I bet May's lectern moment is just going to be more of the same. She'll stand in fron of No. 10 and say "I have told the opposition parties that if my deal passes at the third attempt we will have an extension to sort out the details then Brexit in an orderly fashion. If my deal doesn't pass then we will no deal and you can blame everyone who voted the deal down".

    And she would be right to say that.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no deal
    The Saturday march might turn into a massive Revoke march now. Not what anyone would have foreseen.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sean_F said:

    Tusk's statement is fine. There is no extension to faff around. It's Deal, No Deal, Revoke.

    Tusk & Macron have been very helpful to Theresa May today.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You ever been inside a Turkish prison?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    This does put labour in a little bit of a bind. The game of chicken will finish one way or another

    Yes, Labour will have to CHOOSE. Sign up to TMay's Deal, or demand revocation/referendum, or be seen as pushing us over the cliff.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no deal
    The Saturday march might turn into a massive Revoke march now. Not what anyone would have foreseen.
    It won't make any difference unless more than 17.4 million turn up.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Sean_F said:

    Tusk's statement is fine. There is no extension to faff around. It's Deal, No Deal, Revoke.

    MPs are paid to take decisions. Positive decisions not just "I don't like it, wah, wah" like some shitty-nappied toddler. Now's their opportunity.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    This is political carnage. Those of you with a lot of money on the markets must be wearing your brown trousers 24/7.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no deal
    The Saturday march might turn into a massive Revoke march now. Not what anyone would have foreseen.
    It is that already. No one who supports Leave wants a second referendum
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    SeanT said:

    This does put labour in a little bit of a bind. The game of chicken will finish one way or another

    Yes, Labour will have to CHOOSE. Sign up to TMay's Deal, or demand revocation/referendum, or be seen as pushing us over the cliff.
    Especially with the big People's Vote march coming this weekend.... no pressure Jeremy...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited March 2019
    So ultimately it will be the EU that forces us to Exit?
    Oh, the irony.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,261

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no deal
    What are the chances this response was agreed verbally before May sent the letter?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Scott_P said:
    I really don't know why they are surprised. Do they not follow politics?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    Surely, you can't be serious?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Looks like it's time for MPs to piss or get off the pot. This is the end of the road. deal or no-deal.

  • Sean_F said:

    Tusk's statement is fine. There is no extension to faff around. It's Deal, No Deal, Revoke.

    Tusk & Macron have been very helpful to Theresa May today.
    It has changed my mind about TM handing over to Lidington. I now think she may just do this

    Amazing if so
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Freggles, well... some of us backed a second referendum at 6.5, and no second referendum at 1.75. On the betting front, I'm relaxed.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    SeanT said:

    Andrew said:

    So, Tusk's statement rules out a referendum, one more outcome off the list. Deal, no-deal, or revoke.

    Does it tho? If we came back and asked for an extension to have a referendum, I still think they would agree.
    Correct. Tusk has left open the possibility of a longer extension but it will need to be negotiated based on some collective decision the UK has made. The short one is only to pass the WA. This means the EU is no longer driven by concerns of No Deal. Either they think it won't happen, No Deal will concentrate UK minds, or the EU no longer cares if there is No Deal or not.


  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    Scott_P said:
    I really don't know why they are surprised. Do they not follow politics?
    Yes. They are even stupider than I thought, and I was already incredibly surprised by the depths of their stupidity.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Anorak said:

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
    I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,747

    Government of National Unity? Jezza Foreign Sec. Cable Chancellor.

    What would the world think of us then? Mr Thicky would make the most ridiculous foreign minister since, well, Boris Johnson!
    On a serious note, Geoffrey Cox managed more in negotiations with the EU than all the Brexit Secretaries combined since 2016. Worth a shout as a future FS if Hunt were to move on.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580


    Oh dear, someone has to support them I guess. Does he like Tommeh too ?

    Actually once again Nigel is incorrect. I joined UKIP back when it first formed under Alan Sked. Unlike Sked I stayed in after Farage took over and then left once Cameron announced the referendum was on. They were a useful vehicle to achieve a goal and once that goal was achieved they became pointless. So I have not been a UKIP member for almost 4years.

    Now since Nigel is both fairly new to PB and also clearly suffers from some deficiencies in intelligence he can be forgiven for not knowing this and also for not knowing I advocate unlimited migration. Something I suspect might stir some concerns in his closed mind.
  • TykeTyke Posts: 18
    We really do have some very unremarkable people on parliament. I know that is a somewhat arsey thing to say, but it is true. Whenever I hear Steve Barclay I think he is going to try and sell me some double glazing.
  • I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    I know you do not like the deal but the collective sigh of relief if it goes through next week will be heard throughout the nation
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no deal
    The Saturday march might turn into a massive Revoke march now. Not what anyone would have foreseen.
    If there could be a counter-leave march and some decent facial recognition software, there's a fighting opportunity of identifying most of the ****s in Britain on one day.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    Tusk has just increased the likelihood of Revoke massively.

    Nah.....
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2019
    Oh, wasn't reported well. Tusk said no _short_ extension if MV3 fails

    So plausibly MV3 fails > emergency EU Council > 2yr extension offered (which would also trigger May's resignation). This might not be spelled out in advance though, so as to pressure MPs to pass MV3.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    edited March 2019
    If it comes to it, will swathes of opposition abstain, knowing that if they do so in large numbers they will probably avoid no deal but not be seen to back May's deal?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    If it comes to it, will swathes of opposition abstain, knowing that if they do so in large numbers they will probably avoid no deal but not be seen to back May's deal?

    Labour MPs are indeed now the pressure point.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Anorak said:

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
    I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.
    Almost certainly, it could not get made these days. Too many interest groups would be outraged.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    If it comes to it, will swathes of opposition abstain, knowing that if they do so in large numbers they will probably avoid no deal but not be seen to back May's deal?

    This isn't the thing you want to risk being close.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Tusk's statement is fine. There is no extension to faff around. It's Deal, No Deal, Revoke.

    MPs are paid to take decisions. Positive decisions not just "I don't like it, wah, wah" like some shitty-nappied toddler. Now's their opportunity.
    Many have failed to be positive so far; and I fail to see that enough will change.

    British politics over the last two years has been like watching a slow-motion car crash between four cars, each being driven by three clowns who are all trying not to steer towards the other cars. Yet the cars are inexorably heading towards each other.

    Some want the crash. Some don't want to crash. Some want a Schrodinger's Clown crash-nocrash alternative. But they're crashing nonetheless.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    If it comes to it, will swathes of opposition abstain, knowing that if they do so in large numbers they will probably avoid no deal but not be seen to back May's deal?

    Maybe. That was what many months ago I expected would eventually happen, but there hasn't been any sign of it so far.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no deal
    The Saturday march might turn into a massive Revoke march now. Not what anyone would have foreseen.
    It is that already. No one who supports Leave wants a second referendum
    Many Remainers, though not all, were willing to accept Leave winning in a second referendum, if that's what happened. Now the polarities are much starker.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Tusk has cover for not talking about any longer extension because TM hasn't asked for one. Keeps up the flimsy pretence that the UK's settled view is that given by its government.

    This allows TM to wheel in the Brexit-friendly cabinet ministers and say "tell your boys to wind their necks in and get behind this. I've put my head on the block by not going down the can-kicking route.. but if MV3 falls, I'm off and Liddington will head to Brussels like a shot asking for longer for "

    Two outcomes:

    Head of steam builds up for cabinet and Tory unity, Bercow is overturned and MV3 passes on Monday.

    Half the cabinet resign; MPs continue to sit on their hands and we No Deal on Friday night.
  • Scott_P said:
    Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no deal
    What are the chances this response was agreed verbally before May sent the letter?
    I would not be surprised
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Tusk has given the Labour party 'an offer it can't refuse'.

    "If you don't vote for the EU deal, you're voting for No-deal. On your own heads be it."
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Scott_P said:
    A GE would be the worst thing right now. It would solve nothing and create a huge list of new problems.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    Scott_P said:
    Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no deal
    What are the chances this response was agreed verbally before May sent the letter?
    I would not be surprised
    All the nonsense about where's our letter, its late, its now too late etc was clearly bollocks. Even CH4 news were saying last night the EU officials weren't expecting the letter today i.e. people were clearly talking behind the scenes.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Andrew said:

    Oh, wasn't reported well. Tusk said no _short_ extension if MV3 fails

    So plausibly MV3 fails > emergency EU Council > 2yr extension offered (which would also trigger May's resignation). This might not be spelled out in advance though, so as to pressure MPs to pass MV3.

    Having now heard what he said, I think it is ambiguous - perhaps deliberately so.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Anorak said:

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
    This seems apposite:

    "There's no reason to become alarmed, and we hope you'll enjoy the rest of your flight. By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly a plane?"
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    Tyke said:

    We really do have some very unremarkable people on parliament. I know that is a somewhat arsey thing to say, but it is true. Whenever I hear Steve Barclay I think he is going to try and sell me some double glazing.

    Actually its Gavin Williamson and his fireplaces that come fastest to my mind
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    Scott_P said:
    A GE would be the worst thing right now. It would solve nothing and create a huge list of new problems.
    Would it be a huge shock if May doesn't use that as extra "leverage". Right numpties, its my deal next week or I'm calling a GE and buggering off...
  • AlasdairAlasdair Posts: 72
    Won't the DUP immediately call a VONC if May's deal passes MV3?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Slackbladder, agree a GE would be daft.

    Given recent history, that alone makes it a credible possibility.
  • Alasdair said:

    Won't the DUP immediately call a VONC if May's deal passes MV3?

    Not if they are on board
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It would solve nothing and create a huge list of new problems.

    Like Brexit...
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    MV3 to pass about to become favourite on Betfair.

    Tough for Labour now.
  • Alasdair said:

    Won't the DUP immediately call a VONC if May's deal passes MV3?

    Do the numbers even stack up for MV3 passing?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    I suspect the British electorate, or many of them, will be relieved now. It's been too like a Mack Sennett black and white film with the MPs whizzing around in jerky motion and achieving nothing.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    Andrew said:

    MV3 to pass about to become favourite on Betfair.

    Tough for Labour now.

    Good
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
    I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.
    Almost certainly, it could not get made these days. Too many interest groups would be outraged.
    "Have you seen a grown man naked?" would be on the cutting room floor, for sure!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Well anyway, the betting markets don't seem to believe a long extension has been ruled out.

    If you add up the Betfair options of leaving by June and revoking, they only come to about 65%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited March 2019

    Some good news:
    witter.com/AFP/status/1108330868156837888

    Its weird you have to really going searching for this news on the BBC website....down the bottom of the business section.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Mark, aye. The professionally offended would need to buy another bucket for all their tears.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313


    Oh dear, someone has to support them I guess. Does he like Tommeh too ?

    Actually once again Nigel is incorrect. I joined UKIP back when it first formed under Alan Sked. Unlike Sked I stayed in after Farage took over and then left once Cameron announced the referendum was on. They were a useful vehicle to achieve a goal and once that goal was achieved they became pointless. So I have not been a UKIP member for almost 4years.

    Now since Nigel is both fairly new to PB and also clearly suffers from some deficiencies in intelligence he can be forgiven for not knowing this and also for not knowing I advocate unlimited migration. Something I suspect might stir some concerns in his closed mind.
    An ex-UKIP member accusing someone of having a closed mind, or questioning their intelligence is hilarious!

    I used to find you irritating, but now I do enjoy your contributions as they keep confirming my suspicions of how dumb you have to be to be a UKIP supporter. Now you admit you were a member. Fantastic. Did you have little rallies where you secretly dressed up? Practice sessions where you attempted to talk about Europe without getting red in the face or rolling your eyes?

    The really interesting thing about your post is that you said you joined under Alan Sked. Sked openly accused Farage of being a racist (I am sure even you can use Google) and yet you remained part of a party led by a man accused of being a racist, and who has not sued Sked for what he said. You must have known about that. Nice one! Keep taking the tablets Richard. The great thing about freedom of speech is that we get to see those with unpleasant views crawl out from under their stones and show themselves for what they are.

    PS I have been following PB since the days of "Tim". I gave up contributing for a while and then came back. Sorry you have bene too dumb to work that one out
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Somebody on here the other day suggested May sends the crappiest emptiest extension request letter, thus forcing the EU to have no option but to reject it. Then she pummels MV3 through next week at 11.59pm metaphorically speaking given the alternative is No Deal.

    I think that's just what has happened today.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Scott_P said:
    Errr....someone want to point out if the MV passes, it passes. No backies.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    I know you do not like the deal but the collective sigh of relief if it goes through next week will be heard throughout the nation
    No doubt the eulogising of Theresa May will also begin - she will be lauded almost to the point of sainthood and all talk of her resigning will be forgotten and indeed the Mail and the Express will urge her to remain until the next GE if not beyond.

    I'm still to see how Bercow's ruling can be overturned but IF MV3 comes and is again defeated the ERG will have won so they are still very much in the game and their "victory" is still within their grasp.

    One thing Tusk has done is ensure the EU won't carry the can if we go to No Deal - they will be able to say we gave Theresa May every chance to get the WA through the Commons.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    Alasdair said:

    Won't the DUP immediately call a VONC if May's deal passes MV3?

    Do the numbers even stack up for MV3 passing?
    How many Labour switchers are going to be needed?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    May's Shit Deal will pass. You can quote me on this.....
  • Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

    You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.

    Nervous?
    Yes.
    First time?
    No, I've been nervous lots of times.
    I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.
    Almost certainly, it could not get made these days. Too many interest groups would be outraged.
    "Have you seen a grown man naked?" would be on the cutting room floor, for sure!
    Also the helpful woman translating Jive for the stewardess.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    A vote to revoke A50 in the Commons next week would not carry legal weight, but I think it would be impossible to ignore. I think that May would have to resign, and hand over to someone prepared to do so.

    But, I don't think there's a majority to do so. If 334 MP's oppose a second referendum, there must be a larger number who oppose revocation, without one.

    So, that leaves Deal or No Deal.
This discussion has been closed.