Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of gettin

17810121315

Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830
    edited March 2019
    AndyJS said:
    Hahaha, no.
    Problem is all MPs have been told that a million times. Either they know and are deliberately ignoring that, or they simply will never understand it no matter how clearly it is stated.

    With the vote slated for 45 minutes from now I'm off to enjoy a good movie, but I'm going to have a stab and suggest it will be

    Ayes 253
    Noes 381
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited March 2019
    Been following the Commons all day . There has been some good contributions and what really stands out is how many Tory MPs I hadn’t seen talk before are scathing at the thought of no deal .

    And just now James Cartlidge from Suffolk South absolutely eviscerating the WTO option .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,830
    Sandpit said:

    rpjs said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:



    Never thought of it that way but the word "fuck" has really lost all offense. In fact most non-racial swear words have.

    I have noticed in the past few years that "shit" has become more and more common in network american tv shows airing in prime time. Perhaps a loosening of standards given the rise of HBO and other competitors where extreme vulgarity is extremely common.
    Yes, I think that started when Trump used it and the late-night shows got laughed at by their audience (and comedian presenters) for censoring it. Definitely more prevalent in the last couple of years.

    On HBO, Bill Maher got in trouble last year for an off-the-cuff use of the N-word. His show Real Time is very unusual in that it goes out completely live.
    "Shit" remains one of the seven dirty words the FCC bans from FTA broadcasts, so if you're heard it in an American import, it's either come from a subscription cable channel or was bleeped on American TV.

    HBO, as a purely subscription service, can and does broadcast any profanity it likes.
    The likes of Stephen Colbert and The Daily Show now get away with the occasional shit, so to speak. I think it dates from Trump's use of "Shithole countries". It may be that the 'cable' versions don't get bleeped and the 'OTA' versions do.
    Even The Simpsons has, on very rare occasions, been allowed to get away with 'bastard'.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:
    Hahaha, no.
    Problem is all MPs have been told that a million times. Either they know and are deliberately ignoring that, or they simply will never understand it no matter how clearly it is stated.

    With the vote slated for 45 minutes from now I'm off to enjoy a good movie, but I'm going to have a stab and suggest it will be

    Ayes 253
    Noes 381
    I very much hope it's a 150+ majority against. Less than that and May is going to start getting ideas about running the clock down some more
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    matt said:

    Add Michael Fabricant to the switcher list.

    Are you sure?

    https://twitter.com/mike_fabricant/status/1105524580272295941?s=21
    They’re paid to vote with their heads, not their hearts. If we wanted gurning, emoting One Show presenters as MPs we’d be better going to the primary source. Moron.
    If we want Fabricant to vote with benefit of his brains, he can't use his head.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited March 2019
    And on to more important matters. Great day at Cheltenham; the ground took its toll with several distance winners.

    Best race of the day was the last, an amateurs' chase. A great hard fought finish edged by Jamie Codd.

    Tomorrow they say it might be cancelled on account of the wind.

    NotWhatIAm on Thursday the tip.

    Anything happen politics-wise today?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,151
    RobD said:
    Convicted criminal rocks up at Parliament on tag to overturn the biggest democratic vote in history...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    matt said:

    Add Michael Fabricant to the switcher list.

    Are you sure?

    https://twitter.com/mike_fabricant/status/1105524580272295941?s=21
    They’re paid to vote with their heads, not their hearts. If we wanted gurning, emoting One Show presenters as MPs we’d be better going to the primary source. Moron.
    They have all gone beyond the minor detail of what happens to the country and are thinking personally about how they will avoid the blame.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC Radio 1 censors all these words from songs including words such as ‘weed’, ‘pussy’ and any reference to suicide, to name just some.

    It always used to make me laugh how "drugs" and "ass" got censored from Nickleback's song Rock Star, on BBC radio.
    On BBC subtitles there is a substitution list for obscene words. My favourite was ‘my other fur coat’
    That is utterly patronising if true. Are the BBC content to broadcast such phrases but not write them down for deaf viewers?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:
    Convicted criminal rocks up at Parliament on tag to overturn the biggest democratic vote in history...
    In what way is voting against May’s deal overturning the referendum? Is Johnson voting to overturn the referendum?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    edited March 2019
    In any event, this needs to reach the 'something else' stage by Thursday night. May simply cannot be allowed to go back to the EU with a proposal to discuss the backstop some more during an extension.

    Whether an internal Tory coup, a VoNC/GE, a voluntary resignation by May or, heaven forbid, her coming up with an actual plan B, I don't too much care.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    SeanT said:

    Interesting on female voices - literally - in politics

    https://twitter.com/carolineslocock/status/1105530308424880128?s=21

    And with that, a final kapkap from Bangkok. Good luck, Britain, I shall be asleep while you vote.


    Patrick Moore, the astronomer and rightwinger, advocated the removal of female radio presenters because their voices were too quiet.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited March 2019
    SeanT said:

    Spaz was one of my favorite insults as a kid. And an adult.

    I think the answer to this is that we should all be able to say whatever we like without fear. Let the blacks say cracker, let the Muslims say kaffir, let the whites say nigger, let the Jews say goy, let the goys say Kike, let the Thais say farang, let the spics say gringos. Fuck it. Let it all out, until the words have become mere words and all the words have lost the ability to offend. Same as we did with “fuck”.

    Right now we are engaged in the linguistic equivalent of Victorians shrouding piano legs in a fit of prudery. It just makes things worse, and makes everyone evermore neurotic.

    Pretty comprehensive but you have missed the most important one of all.

    Let the occidents say orients!

    :-)
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Talking of swears, it would seem that Bercow has just allowed "turd" as Parliamentary language...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Pro_Rata said:

    In any event, this needs to reach the 'something else' stage by Thursday night. May simply cannot be allowed to go back to the EU with a proposal to discuss the backstop some more during an extension.

    Whether an internal Tory coup, a VoNC/GE, a voluntary resignation by May or, heaven forbid, her coming up with an actual plan B, I don't too much care.

    How about the 1316 Papal Conclave solution?

    I think bricking the door up and allowing them only bread and water until they can make up what passes for their minds has a lot to recommend it at this moment.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    _Anazina_ said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    BBC Radio 1 censors all these words from songs including words such as ‘weed’, ‘pussy’ and any reference to suicide, to name just some.

    It always used to make me laugh how "drugs" and "ass" got censored from Nickleback's song Rock Star, on BBC radio.
    On BBC subtitles there is a substitution list for obscene words. My favourite was ‘my other fur coat’
    That is utterly patronising if true. Are the BBC content to broadcast such phrases but not write them down for deaf viewers?
    I suspect the example given was an automated snafu on something unscripted. I think asterisks are more likely, and probably only then when the audio’s beeped??
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I've made the Native American / Indian rather than using "First Nation" faux pas in Canada as well.....

    Hopefully I don't get de-platformed !!!!

    Somebody once complained to Mike about me.

    They said they thought that the deputy editor of Political Betting shouldn't be someone who said

    'I really don't want devout Muslims as new neighbours'
    If it makes you feel better I don't particularly want devout Christians as new neighbours either!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,983

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    SeanT said:

    Yes, I know why it is offensive. It implies whiteness is the default and normal setting. Plus it was used during the era of everyday racism. Yawn. Next question.

    Ah, perhaps you can help me. I've heard this explanation before, but it makes no sense. Even if you take the irrational view that 'coloured woman' implies that the default woman is white, why on earth is 'woman of colour' any more acceptable? I'm sure people who read the Guardian more avidly than me must know the answer, but I've never found it.
    Because whether a word is a slur is based on usage, not something you can derive purely from etymology.
    But what usage? Racists have never said "coloured woman," they say "n-gg-r" - unless you can point us to some counter examples. And anyway "of colour" is close enough to "coloured" that if one is offensive they both are.
    Isn't the more basic point that it is widely recognised to be offensive to a whole community(rather than just one or two individuals taking offense) and as such any decent person who wasn't actually setting out to offend, would avoid using it.

    As someone pointed out last week this seems to me to be more of a basic principle of good manners.
    Spot on. This really is a tedious discussion. Grown men like SeanT and RichardN really ought to be able to manage this. I'm surprised they find it such a struggle.

    I don’t struggle. I know all the right words. I knew - see below - that you can’t say “orientals” in America. I am just fascinated, as a writer, by the mentality that drives this ever-changing linguistic rule book.
    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.
    Yes. I have avoided it since my lecture from America. It does now sound jarring to me, even as a Brit.

    Yet I would forgive a non-writer with less education for using it. How would he or she even know?
    Scores of Chinese takeaways in the UK use "oriental" in their names.
    I wasn’t aware of this.

    I’m sure I’ve used it once at some point.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    rpjs said:

    Talking of swears, it would seem that Bercow has just allowed "turd" as Parliamentary language...

    When describing the PM's Brexit deal? Seems fair enough.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,983
    Charles said:

    I've made the Native American / Indian rather than using "First Nation" faux pas in Canada as well.....

    Hopefully I don't get de-platformed !!!!

    Somebody once complained to Mike about me.

    They said they thought that the deputy editor of Political Betting shouldn't be someone who said

    'I really don't want devout Muslims as new neighbours'
    If it makes you feel better I don't particularly want devout Christians as new neighbours either!
    Or Jehovah’s Witnesses.
  • SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    rpjs said:

    Talking of swears, it would seem that Bercow has just allowed "turd" as Parliamentary language...

    It would be hypocritical not to, given how frequently he says 'ordure'.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,983
    SeanT said:

    Interesting on female voices - literally - in politics

    https://twitter.com/carolineslocock/status/1105530308424880128?s=21

    And with that, a final kapkap from Bangkok. Good luck, Britain, I shall be asleep while you vote.


    That’s an interesting point.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    ydoethur said:

    Order a pineapple pizza and make them eat it.

    Two for one.

    :-)

    Save that for if they crash the car.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,806
    I hate to admit this, but I’m getting rather bored of popcorn.
  • kfowkeskfowkes Posts: 20
    Replaccing Theresa May with Boris Johnson under a no deal scenario should work out well for the Tories. It is the best way to unite party and country for the reasons that HYUFD has outlined.

    Compare with a revocation scenario which would destroy the Tories.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,255
    Theresa trying hard to suppress anger and upset at the moment in my opinion.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    TOPPING said:

    And on to more important matters. Great day at Cheltenham; the ground took its toll with several distance winners.

    Best race of the day was the last, an amateurs' chase. A great hard fought finish edged by Jamie Codd.

    Tomorrow they say it might be cancelled on account of the wind.

    NotWhatIAm on Thursday the tip.

    Anything happen politics-wise today?

    Deal is going down to chinatown again. Going to need a few more MVs.

    Might Bite for the GC, been waiting for it, but rumours of a no show?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    RobD said:

    I hate to admit this, but I’m getting rather bored of popcorn.

    Wash your mouth out with soap, sir!

    It'll seem much less dreary after that...
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Just out of interest.

    In terms of government defeats from the original vote to trigger Article 50, when and what was the first important (but not necessary "meaningful") defeat for the government that would act (in hindsight) as the early warning marker of "perhaps this might not go as smoothly as thought"?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    I've made the Native American / Indian rather than using "First Nation" faux pas in Canada as well.....

    Hopefully I don't get de-platformed !!!!

    Somebody once complained to Mike about me.

    They said they thought that the deputy editor of Political Betting shouldn't be someone who said

    'I really don't want devout Muslims as new neighbours'
    If it makes you feel better I don't particularly want devout Christians as new neighbours either!
    Or Jehovah’s Witnesses.
    Ok with that - they'd never be at home
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kfowkes said:

    Replaccing Theresa May with Boris Johnson under a no deal scenario should work out well for the Tories. It is the best way to unite party and country for the reasons that HYUFD has outlined.

    Compare with a revocation scenario which would destroy the Tories.

    Hi Boris, how's your Mum?
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    SeanT said:

    Yes, I know why it is offensive. It implies whiteness is the default and normal setting. Plus it was used during the era of everyday racism. Yawn. Next question.

    Ah, perhaps you can help me. I've heard this explanation before, but it makes no sense. Even if you take the irrational view that 'coloured woman' implies that the default woman is white, why on earth is 'woman of colour' any more acceptable? I'm sure people who read the Guardian more avidly than me must know the answer, but I've never found it.
    Because whether a word is a slur is based on usage, not something you can derive purely from etymology.
    But what usage? Racists have never said "coloured woman," they say "n-gg-r" - unless you can point us to some counter examples. And anyway "of colour" is close enough to "coloured" that if one is offensive they both are.
    Isn't the more basic point that it is widely recognised to be offensive to a whole community(rather than just one or two individuals taking offense) and as such any decent person who wasn't actually setting out to offend, would avoid using it.

    As someone pointed out last week this seems to me to be more of a basic principle of good manners.
    Spot on. This really is a tedious discussion. Grown men like SeanT and RichardN really ought to be able to manage this. I'm surprised they find it such a struggle.

    I don’t struggle. I know all the right words. I knew - see below - that you can’t say “orientals” in America. I am just fascinated, as a writer, by the mentality that drives this ever-changing linguistic rule book.
    I can't imagine any non-gammon using the term orientals here either.
    Yes. I have avoided it since my lecture from America. It does now sound jarring to me, even as a Brit.

    Yet I would forgive a non-writer with less education for using it. How would he or she even know?
    Scores of Chinese takeaways in the UK use "oriental" in their names.
    I wasn’t aware of this.

    I’m sure I’ve used it once at some point.
    At the risk of splitting hairs, is there a slight difference between oriental (adj) and orientals (pl n)? I’d also be less comfortable (on their own scales) with blacks than black people and coloureds than coloured people
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    kfowkes said:

    Replaccing Theresa May with Boris Johnson under a no deal scenario should work out well for the Tories. It is the best way to unite party and country for the reasons that HYUFD has outlined.

    Compare with a revocation scenario which would destroy the Tories.

    While I agree it would unite the country, I've got to assume or at least desperately hope the rest was sarcasm.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,983
    My conclusion is that not enough of the ERG (they’re bright sparks, that lot) will work out they need to vote for the Deal in the next few minutes to keep it alive.

    They’ll probably work it out in a few weeks time, by which time it’ll be history and life (and politics) will have moved on.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    RobD said:

    I hate to admit this, but I’m getting rather bored of popcorn.

    Nah. Complaining about too much popcorn is like complaining about too much vintage wine, or too much sex.

    I think that for most of us on here tonight, this is the biggest political moment of our lifetimes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,308
    RobD said:

    I hate to admit this, but I’m getting rather bored of popcorn.

    Other PB-approved snacks are available.

    https://twitter.com/137pm/status/1103475379883466753
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,806

    Theresa trying hard to suppress anger and upset at the moment in my opinion.

    Understandable.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112
    RobD said:

    I hate to admit this, but I’m getting rather bored of popcorn.

    No popcorn after Brexit....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    My conclusion is that not enough of the ERG (they’re bright sparks, that lot) will work out they need to vote for the Deal in the next few minutes to keep it alive.

    They’ll probably work it out in a few weeks time, by which time it’ll be history and life (and politics) will have moved on.

    Yes, it will dawn on them when Corbyn is PM and revokes A50. Idiots, the lot of them.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    My conclusion is that not enough of the ERG (they’re bright sparks, that lot) will work out they need to vote for the Deal in the next few minutes to keep it alive.

    They’ll probably work it out in a few weeks time, by which time it’ll be history and life (and politics) will have moved on.

    May and the EU should have done better if they wanted this deal backing. This deal is pathetic and the fact its the only deal before us is not good enough.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    I hate to admit this, but I’m getting rather bored of popcorn.

    Nah. Complaining about too much popcorn is like complaining about too much vintage wine, or too much sex.

    I think that for most of us on here tonight, this is the biggest political moment of our lifetimes.
    We have a local association event tonight; Quiz and Curry! Kick off, I hear you ask? 7pm m’lud...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Off-topic:

    "An officer at a former youth detention centre sexually assaulted hundreds of inmates, it has emerged."
    ...
    "However, for some victims the abuse was sexual. Husband was in charge of the kitchen and raped and abused young men on an "almost daily basis" over a period of years, police said, while other officers allegedly turned a blind eye."
    ...
    "In the same year a storeman at the centre, Leslie Johnson, who has also since died, was sentenced to six years in jail for sexual offences."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-47258310

    Sexual abuse is sadly more common than most of us care to think ...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,806

    RobD said:

    I hate to admit this, but I’m getting rather bored of popcorn.

    Other PB-approved snacks are available.

    https://twitter.com/137pm/status/1103475379883466753
    Fake news. Only way to eat pineapple is on a pizza.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I hate to admit this, but I’m getting rather bored of popcorn.

    Other PB-approved snacks are available.

    https://twitter.com/137pm/status/1103475379883466753
    Fake news. Only way to eat pineapple is on a pizza.
    We're in the last days.

    Tonight, PB has fallen to the cu...lt of pineapple on pizza.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,983

    My conclusion is that not enough of the ERG (they’re bright sparks, that lot) will work out they need to vote for the Deal in the next few minutes to keep it alive.

    They’ll probably work it out in a few weeks time, by which time it’ll be history and life (and politics) will have moved on.

    May and the EU should have done better if they wanted this deal backing. This deal is pathetic and the fact its the only deal before us is not good enough.
    The deal is a very fair deal and fully worthy of backing.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,765
    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    In any event, this needs to reach the 'something else' stage by Thursday night. May simply cannot be allowed to go back to the EU with a proposal to discuss the backstop some more during an extension.

    Whether an internal Tory coup, a VoNC/GE, a voluntary resignation by May or, heaven forbid, her coming up with an actual plan B, I don't too much care.

    How about the 1316 Papal Conclave solution?

    I think bricking the door up and allowing them only bread and water until they can make up what passes for their minds has a lot to recommend it at this moment.
    Such a shame they didn’t have that in mind when they drafted Article 50....
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Game over for May .

    Hopeless and stubborn. Gone by the end of the week and won’t be missed .
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    My conclusion is that not enough of the ERG (they’re bright sparks, that lot) will work out they need to vote for the Deal in the next few minutes to keep it alive.

    They’ll probably work it out in a few weeks time, by which time it’ll be history and life (and politics) will have moved on.

    May and the EU should have done better if they wanted this deal backing. This deal is pathetic and the fact its the only deal before us is not good enough.
    The deal is a very fair deal and fully worthy of backing.
    Didn't agree with you in January, don't agree with you now. Sorry but nothing has changed.

    This deal was told no - emphatically - in January. It should have been changed and nothing has changed. It needs to be told no again.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    In any event, this needs to reach the 'something else' stage by Thursday night. May simply cannot be allowed to go back to the EU with a proposal to discuss the backstop some more during an extension.

    Whether an internal Tory coup, a VoNC/GE, a voluntary resignation by May or, heaven forbid, her coming up with an actual plan B, I don't too much care.

    How about the 1316 Papal Conclave solution?

    I think bricking the door up and allowing them only bread and water until they can make up what passes for their minds has a lot to recommend it at this moment.
    Such a shame they didn’t have that in mind when they drafted Article 50....
    I think still giving the bread and water is excessive, especially in these times of stringency. I am also not entirely sure it is necessary to leave an exit.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,255
    Stephen Barclay cannot pronounce the letter “r”.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,983

    My conclusion is that not enough of the ERG (they’re bright sparks, that lot) will work out they need to vote for the Deal in the next few minutes to keep it alive.

    They’ll probably work it out in a few weeks time, by which time it’ll be history and life (and politics) will have moved on.

    May and the EU should have done better if they wanted this deal backing. This deal is pathetic and the fact its the only deal before us is not good enough.
    The deal is a very fair deal and fully worthy of backing.
    Didn't agree with you in January, don't agree with you now. Sorry but nothing has changed.

    This deal was told no - emphatically - in January. It should have been changed and nothing has changed. It needs to be told no again.
    You’re a unicorns or Remain “Brexiteer”.

    Forgive me if I don’t take your views too seriously.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    kfowkes said:

    Replaccing Theresa May with Boris Johnson under a no deal scenario should work out well for the Tories. It is the best way to unite party and country for the reasons that HYUFD has outlined.

    Compare with a revocation scenario which would destroy the Tories.

    But to get No Deal through he would need to call a GE and win it with that in the manifesto.

    That is a big ask even for the 2008 BoJo let alone this one.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited March 2019

    My conclusion is that not enough of the ERG (they’re bright sparks, that lot) will work out they need to vote for the Deal in the next few minutes to keep it alive.

    They’ll probably work it out in a few weeks time, by which time it’ll be history and life (and politics) will have moved on.

    May and the EU should have done better if they wanted this deal backing. This deal is pathetic and the fact its the only deal before us is not good enough.
    The deal is a very fair deal and fully worthy of backing.
    Didn't agree with you in January, don't agree with you now. Sorry but nothing has changed.

    This deal was told no - emphatically - in January. It should have been changed and nothing has changed. It needs to be told no again.
    I still can't believe that Mrs May didn't go into yesterday's meeting with the AG Cox and the DUP on board. If there wasn't any change to the WA it clearly wasn't going to pass tonight.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    nico67 said:

    Game over for May .

    Hopeless and stubborn. Gone by the end of the week and won’t be missed .

    Surely she cannot survive this defeat.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    I've been thinking about the "bad faith" negotiation stuff that was clarified, it's actually a lot more bloody useful than most MPs are willing to acknowledge. All of the heavy lifting is going to be done by the Commission, we know that. Eventually we will agree something with them, they don't want us stuck in purgatory as much as we don't want to be stuck there. The issue is, and has always been the Irish rejecting any move that keeps NI with the UK even if the Commission makes the concession at some level.

    If we agree the deal with the commission and it gets voted down by Ireland, we could go to the arbitration process and it would be negotiated in bad faith by the EU as one branch has agreed and then been overused by another.

    These ridiculous MPs are voting down our only realistic way to leave. Every single Tory who votes against it is a complete and utter c***.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    If May can get 250+, I think she'd see it as progress.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    My conclusion is that not enough of the ERG (they’re bright sparks, that lot) will work out they need to vote for the Deal in the next few minutes to keep it alive.

    They’ll probably work it out in a few weeks time, by which time it’ll be history and life (and politics) will have moved on.

    May and the EU should have done better if they wanted this deal backing. This deal is pathetic and the fact its the only deal before us is not good enough.
    The deal is a very fair deal and fully worthy of backing.
    Didn't agree with you in January, don't agree with you now. Sorry but nothing has changed.

    This deal was told no - emphatically - in January. It should have been changed and nothing has changed. It needs to be told no again.
    You’re a unicorns or Remain “Brexiteer”.

    Forgive me if I don’t take your views too seriously.
    The backstop is a unicorn. It will never pass.

    The backstop is without parallel a huge and unprecedented violation in sovereignty - can you find me a simple example ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD of a sovereign nation having sacrificed its controls and customs to a foreign body in which it gets zero say and in which it can't unilaterally exit out of that arrangement to regain control?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    Sandpit said:

    My conclusion is that not enough of the ERG (they’re bright sparks, that lot) will work out they need to vote for the Deal in the next few minutes to keep it alive.

    They’ll probably work it out in a few weeks time, by which time it’ll be history and life (and politics) will have moved on.

    May and the EU should have done better if they wanted this deal backing. This deal is pathetic and the fact its the only deal before us is not good enough.
    The deal is a very fair deal and fully worthy of backing.
    Didn't agree with you in January, don't agree with you now. Sorry but nothing has changed.

    This deal was told no - emphatically - in January. It should have been changed and nothing has changed. It needs to be told no again.
    I still can't believe that Mrs May didn't go into yesterday's meeting with the AG Cox and the DUP on board. If there wasn't any change to the WA it clearly wasn't going to pass tonight.
    Occam's razor here I'm afraid. She just isn't up to the job.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Stephen Barclay cannot pronounce the letter “r”.

    If only that was his only or even major deficiency.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Game over for May .

    Hopeless and stubborn. Gone by the end of the week and won’t be missed .

    Surely she cannot survive this defeat.
    I’m beginning to think if a nuclear bomb hit May would be the only survivor ! But really how can she survive . I’d have a bet she will seek an extension then quit .
  • Out for a Pizza. PB lovers of haute cuisine will be delighted to know that there is a Ham and Pineapple pizza on the menu.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Artist said:

    If May can get 250+, I think she'd see it as progress.

    To what end? Even with an extension there is no way this deal passes. Even if the EU agreed some long dated time limit I don't think it would pass. Enough c*** Tory MPs like Jenkyns would vote against on some idiotic idea that we'd possibly be in it for any amount of time.

    Regardless of the fact that it fucking suits us to be in the backstop for some number of years while we get independent trade deals concluded.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Stephen Barclay cannot pronounce the letter “r”.

    Neither can I. Do you wheely think than wanks as one of the most important weasons to widicule someone?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    MaxPB said:

    I've been thinking about the "bad faith" negotiation stuff that was clarified, it's actually a lot more bloody useful than most MPs are willing to acknowledge. All of the heavy lifting is going to be done by the Commission, we know that. Eventually we will agree something with them, they don't want us stuck in purgatory as much as we don't want to be stuck there. The issue is, and has always been the Irish rejecting any move that keeps NI with the UK even if the Commission makes the concession at some level.

    If we agree the deal with the commission and it gets voted down by Ireland, we could go to the arbitration process and it would be negotiated in bad faith by the EU as one branch has agreed and then been overused by another.

    These ridiculous MPs are voting down our only realistic way to leave. Every single Tory who votes against it is a complete and utter c***.

    There really needs to be a clear out. We need a party that is coherent to provide a government. We are not even close.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,983

    My conclusion is that not enough of the ERG (they’re bright sparks, that lot) will work out they need to vote for the Deal in the next few minutes to keep it alive.

    They’ll probably work it out in a few weeks time, by which time it’ll be history and life (and politics) will have moved on.

    May and the EU should have done better if they wanted this deal backing. This deal is pathetic and the fact its the only deal before us is not good enough.
    The deal is a very fair deal and fully worthy of backing.
    Didn't agree with you in January, don't agree with you now. Sorry but nothing has changed.

    This deal was told no - emphatically - in January. It should have been changed and nothing has changed. It needs to be told no again.
    You’re a unicorns or Remain “Brexiteer”.

    Forgive me if I don’t take your views too seriously.
    The backstop is a unicorn. It will never pass.

    The backstop is without parallel a huge and unprecedented violation in sovereignty - can you find me a simple example ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD of a sovereign nation having sacrificed its controls and customs to a foreign body in which it gets zero say and in which it can't unilaterally exit out of that arrangement to regain control?
    To be honest, Philip, I’m both bored and tired of responding to the hyperbole on this.

    There is plenty in the joint UK/EU political declaration to commit both parties to work for frictionless solutions in the permanent deal to overcome this, further reinforced by the qualifying riders and clarifying letters. It’s neither in the UK’s or EU’s interests for it to last.

    And NI is going to need to have some sort of special status wrt. the EU and UK in any Brexit scenario, and indeed, does so now. The whole place is a compromise.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    MaxPB said:

    I've been thinking about the "bad faith" negotiation stuff that was clarified, it's actually a lot more bloody useful than most MPs are willing to acknowledge. All of the heavy lifting is going to be done by the Commission, we know that. Eventually we will agree something with them, they don't want us stuck in purgatory as much as we don't want to be stuck there. The issue is, and has always been the Irish rejecting any move that keeps NI with the UK even if the Commission makes the concession at some level.

    If we agree the deal with the commission and it gets voted down by Ireland, we could go to the arbitration process and it would be negotiated in bad faith by the EU as one branch has agreed and then been overused by another.

    These ridiculous MPs are voting down our only realistic way to leave. Every single Tory who votes against it is a complete and utter c***.

    Cox made your first point well. He stated the point was not whether we would ever go to an arbitration about bad faith, it was how those provisions affect the process and the conduct of the parties.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've been thinking about the "bad faith" negotiation stuff that was clarified, it's actually a lot more bloody useful than most MPs are willing to acknowledge. All of the heavy lifting is going to be done by the Commission, we know that. Eventually we will agree something with them, they don't want us stuck in purgatory as much as we don't want to be stuck there. The issue is, and has always been the Irish rejecting any move that keeps NI with the UK even if the Commission makes the concession at some level.

    If we agree the deal with the commission and it gets voted down by Ireland, we could go to the arbitration process and it would be negotiated in bad faith by the EU as one branch has agreed and then been overused by another.

    These ridiculous MPs are voting down our only realistic way to leave. Every single Tory who votes against it is a complete and utter c***.

    There really needs to be a clear out. We need a party that is coherent to provide a government. We are not even close.
    How many of the dimmer ones are in perma-safe seats? The risk is the clearout will be of realists, much like the Brown-era Labour Party.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,119
    Been at work all day. Anything happen?

    Prediction: Govt loses by 138 votes
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Betfair favourite now 240-249 Ayes, priced at 3.65.

    Mrs May 1.38 to leave office before Brexit

    Leave on time 7

    Vote of confidence in the government to be held in 2019 1.41 <<<-----Massive value
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    I hate to admit this, but I’m getting rather bored of popcorn.

    Nah. Complaining about too much popcorn is like complaining about too much vintage wine, or too much sex.

    I think that for most of us on here tonight, this is the biggest political moment of our lifetimes.
    Reminds me of the C&W song:

    Too much fun, what's that mean?
    It's like too much money, there's no such thing
    It's like a girl too pretty with too much class
    Being too lucky, a car too fast
    No matter what they say, I've done
    But I ain't never had too much fun
  • nico67 said:

    Game over for May .

    Hopeless and stubborn. Gone by the end of the week and won’t be missed .

    Surely she cannot survive this defeat.
    In normal times, she would have had to go quite a while ago. However, in these Brexity days, you can be completely incompetent, and keep on keeping on.
  • DennisBetsDennisBets Posts: 244
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Game over for May .

    Hopeless and stubborn. Gone by the end of the week and won’t be missed .

    Surely she cannot survive this defeat.
    I’m beginning to think if a nuclear bomb hit May would be the only survivor ! But really how can she survive . I’d have a bet she will seek an extension then quit .
    Maybe she will get in a fridge just before the result is announced, I've seen Indiana Jones survive a nuclear blast like that.
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    I think she'll lose by less than 100
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    Several ayes now voting no...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    nico67 said:

    Game over for May .

    Hopeless and stubborn. Gone by the end of the week and won’t be missed .

    Surely she cannot survive this defeat.
    Given the reality is nor can Brexit she probably can, the choice is now the Deal or Remain and no Brexit at all as the remaining votes this week will confirm
  • The Beeb saying it looks like a massive defeat.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    HYUFD said:
    The man who told us the EU would fold has folded.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    When democracy died. Its a bit sad but there we are.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Just a shout out to the PB news service.

    I was sitting at work in an Aviation Insurance Broker and the first we heard of the CAA 737 MAX grounding was via .. PB!

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,151
    edited March 2019
    MaxPB said:

    I've been thinking about the "bad faith" negotiation stuff that was clarified, it's actually a lot more bloody useful than most MPs are willing to acknowledge. All of the heavy lifting is going to be done by the Commission, we know that. Eventually we will agree something with them, they don't want us stuck in purgatory as much as we don't want to be stuck there. The issue is, and has always been the Irish rejecting any move that keeps NI with the UK even if the Commission makes the concession at some level.

    If we agree the deal with the commission and it gets voted down by Ireland, we could go to the arbitration process and it would be negotiated in bad faith by the EU as one branch has agreed and then been overused by another.

    These ridiculous MPs are voting down our only realistic way to leave. Every single Tory who votes against it is a complete and utter c***.

    Indeed. MPs should bag the deal and move on.

    I think the problem is that everyone has become so entrenched (I'm sure a lot of this is to do with the constant attention seeking on Twitter) that nobody is willing to back down or compromise anymore.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Stephen Barclay cannot pronounce the letter “r”.

    Neither can I.

    It amuses me that the term for this condition is rhotacism. Hence a condition the afflicted cannot pronounce. ;)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhotacism_(speech_impediment)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    170 is my call. Which would be unprecedented...apart from the last time.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've been thinking about the "bad faith" negotiation stuff that was clarified, it's actually a lot more bloody useful than most MPs are willing to acknowledge. All of the heavy lifting is going to be done by the Commission, we know that. Eventually we will agree something with them, they don't want us stuck in purgatory as much as we don't want to be stuck there. The issue is, and has always been the Irish rejecting any move that keeps NI with the UK even if the Commission makes the concession at some level.

    If we agree the deal with the commission and it gets voted down by Ireland, we could go to the arbitration process and it would be negotiated in bad faith by the EU as one branch has agreed and then been overused by another.

    These ridiculous MPs are voting down our only realistic way to leave. Every single Tory who votes against it is a complete and utter c***.

    Cox made your first point well. He stated the point was not whether we would ever go to an arbitration about bad faith, it was how those provisions affect the process and the conduct of the parties.
    Well yes, I think it helps to keep the Irish in line. The simple fact is that the statement has helped us a lot. They will have little choice but to vote through what the commission agrees with or we can go down the arbitration route. Something that wasn't previously available. I'm close to tearing my hair out over this stupid bloody situation. Our MPs should all be bloody sacked.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    HYUFD said:
    As that's about 80 less than last time, does that count a a win in May's world?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I can understand why a lot of Tory MPs are voting against the deal, but I can't understand why Labour MPs are doing so.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    AndyJS said:

    I can understand why a lot of Tory MPs are voting against the deal, but I can't understand why Labour MPs are doing so.

    Because they are the opposition?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    AndyJS said:

    I can understand why a lot of Tory MPs are voting against the deal, but I can't understand why Labour MPs are doing so.

    Because they are cynical.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Never seen a photo of the lobbies before. I know its not a secret ballot anyway but that doesn't sit right with me.
  • AndyJS said:

    I can understand why a lot of Tory MPs are voting against the deal, but I can't understand why Labour MPs are doing so.

    In the hope that it will cause a general election that they will almost certainly lose.

    It seems to be their only policy at the moment.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    Oops. That's another MP about to be suspended from the House.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    AndyJS said:

    I can understand why a lot of Tory MPs are voting against the deal, but I can't understand why Labour MPs are doing so.

    Why? It’s a bad deal that leaves us all worse off and with less self-determination than if we stayed in.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Stephen Barclay cannot pronounce the letter “r”.

    Neither can I.

    It amuses me that the term for this condition is rhotacism. Hence a condition the afflicted cannot pronounce. ;)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhotacism_(speech_impediment)
    Nor, famously, could Labour's greatest Europhile, Roy Jenkins.

    This led to one of Skinner's most withering one-liners:

    Jenkins: I leave without rancour.

    Skinner: I thought you were taking Marquand with you.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    The only solution is to revoke Article 50
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Never seen a photo of the lobbies before. I know its not a secret ballot anyway but that doesn't sit right with me.

    Nope, they'll be in trouble with the Speaker for that photo.
This discussion has been closed.