politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now three CON MPs defect to the TIGers
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They’d need a functioning navy and airforce first...Recidivist said:
You are assuming Argentina won't try to take advantage of UK divisions to grab the Falklands.Wulfrun_Phil said:
In terms of historic parallels, we are at the January 1981 stage, i.e. The equivalent of the Council for Social Democracy was launched 2 days ago. Without General Galteiri in 1982, how would 1983 have played out?AndyJS said:The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
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Pulpstar's point, which I think is very astute, is that Bernie is jumping in with strong name recognition and lots of money and becomes the defacto leader. That leaves the rest in a bunch behind, and it's not a huge benefit to be the leader of the rest, and anyone could just as easily be the one to jump ahead.DecrepitJohnL said:
Kamala Harris is 3/1 generally which implies a 25 per cent chance of her winning the Democrat nomination. It is not so obviously absurd that I'd be rushing to lay her at the price, but I've not done the work to price up the whole field.Pulpstar said:Away from Brexit, is anyone else laying Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination now ?
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One can read, one can write and the other watches over the two dangerous intellectuals.AlastairMeeks said:
They need to adopt the East German guard theory, making them patrol in threes. One by himself might just defect. With two, one might shoot the other and then defect. With three, each is being watched by two.Richard_Nabavi said:
The danger of sending a moderate to lean on a potential defector is that they might end up with two defectors...Scott_P said:0 -
Surely this time Bernie wants to be kingmaker, not king?edmundintokyo said:
Pulpstar's point, which I think is very astute, is that Bernie is jumping in with strong name recognition and lots of money and becomes the defacto leader. That leaves the rest in a bunch behind, and it's not a huge benefit to be the leader of the rest, and anyone could just as easily be the one to jump ahead.DecrepitJohnL said:
Kamala Harris is 3/1 generally which implies a 25 per cent chance of her winning the Democrat nomination. It is not so obviously absurd that I'd be rushing to lay her at the price, but I've not done the work to price up the whole field.Pulpstar said:Away from Brexit, is anyone else laying Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination now ?
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Bernie's price is probably about right (It should lengthen if Biden runs, and shorten if he does not) but Harris' price is too short.edmundintokyo said:
Pulpstar's point, which I think is very astute, is that Bernie is jumping in with strong name recognition and lots of money and becomes the defacto leader. That leaves the rest in a bunch behind, and it's not a huge benefit to be the leader of the rest, and anyone could just as easily be the one to jump ahead.DecrepitJohnL said:
Kamala Harris is 3/1 generally which implies a 25 per cent chance of her winning the Democrat nomination. It is not so obviously absurd that I'd be rushing to lay her at the price, but I've not done the work to price up the whole field.Pulpstar said:Away from Brexit, is anyone else laying Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination now ?
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She has been too short for some time. I'm following a very simple strategy of laying all the hot contenders as they shorten for equal stakes. It's doing fine for me so far.Pulpstar said:
i) There's a tonne of candidatesDecrepitJohnL said:
Kamala Harris is 3/1 generally which implies a 25 per cent chance of her winning the Democrat nomination. It is not so obviously absurd that I'd be rushing to lay her at the price, but I've not done the work to price up the whole field.Pulpstar said:Away from Brexit, is anyone else laying Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination now ?
ii) She doesn't lead the polling.
This is Rubio MK II0 -
Because this Group did not exist at the time of the 2017 election it will have little entitlement to coverage by the Broadcasters during an election campaign . A single PPB would be allocated to it. The same problem will affect Farage's Brexit Party.kinabalu said:I think this could be big. Perhaps the main thing they need, the Tiggers, is for the Tory leadership to be captured by the hard right in the way that Labour's has been captured by the hard left. In that case, given a good leader for both TIG and the LDs, and if they work in tandem, I can see a new centrist grouping winning many seats at a GE. For example, if JC vs JRM were to be the choice for PM laid before the electorate, then many will bridle at that and will appreciate a serious alternative.
Unfortunately (from the TIG viewpoint) I suspect the Tories are too pragmatic and power grubbing to allow that to happen. They will not choose a headbanger to replace TM. In which case we might be SDP Liberal Alliance all over again and the effect will be to hard-code the Tory Party into government for the foreseeable future.
But then - wild card - there is Farage's new reactionary populist party potentially surging to the right of the Tories. That could make it all very different this time.
Gosh, who knows. Really interesting time to be alive.0 -
So is it 8 traitors and 3 heroes, or 8 heroes and 3 traitors?
The only cross-party consensus appears to be from those who have the hots for both Heidi and Luciana.0 -
Important to distinguish between leave then and leave now.OblitusSumMe said:Subsample klaxon! - In the YouGov TIG is on 18% with Remain voters and 11% with Leave voters. Labour 37-12, so that makes TIG support less polarised by Remain support than Labour's.
If that were to last it would certainly represent a change in politics.0 -
So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.0 -
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We just stop buying their straw donkeys and paella. Bankrupt themDecrepitJohnL said:
Whether we could defend Gibraltar against a hypothetical Spanish invasion is a more open question, once Gavin Williamson's finished with China.dyedwoolie said:
Bit more difficult today with RAF mount pleasant etc. Argentina has f all military capabilityRecidivist said:
You are assuming Argentina won't try to take advantage of UK divisions to grab the Falklands.Wulfrun_Phil said:
In terms of historic parallels, we are at the January 1981 stage, i.e. The equivalent of the Council for Social Democracy was launched 2 days ago. Without General Galteiri in 1982, how would 1983 have played out?AndyJS said:The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
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Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.0 -
The thing I've been banging on about since forever is that Kamala's social media presence is dull af. I think you need some spikiness to win a modern campaign, especially with a crowded field like this. But if you were going to win it by being solid and workmanlike, you have to take a lead and keep it, and she just lost it.Pulpstar said:
i) There's a tonne of candidatesDecrepitJohnL said:
Kamala Harris is 3/1 generally which implies a 25 per cent chance of her winning the Democrat nomination. It is not so obviously absurd that I'd be rushing to lay her at the price, but I've not done the work to price up the whole field.Pulpstar said:Away from Brexit, is anyone else laying Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination now ?
ii) She doesn't lead the polling.
This is Rubio MK II
In contrast Warren is sharp and aggressive, and KLOBUCHAR has an exceedingly strong emoji game.0 -
Burgon writes in The Morning Star on unity.
https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/united-labour-party-best-way-oust-these-cruel-tories
Not sure how this really appears to centre voters.0 -
I still like my bet on Klobuchar at 40s, but not sure some of her recent statements will appeal to the Democrat base !edmundintokyo said:
The thing I've been banging on about since forever is that Kamala's social media presence is dull af. I think you need some spikiness to win a modern campaign, especially with a crowded field like this. But if you were going to win it by being solid and workmanlike, you have to take a lead and keep it, and she just lost it.Pulpstar said:
i) There's a tonne of candidatesDecrepitJohnL said:
Kamala Harris is 3/1 generally which implies a 25 per cent chance of her winning the Democrat nomination. It is not so obviously absurd that I'd be rushing to lay her at the price, but I've not done the work to price up the whole field.Pulpstar said:Away from Brexit, is anyone else laying Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination now ?
ii) She doesn't lead the polling.
This is Rubio MK II
In contrast Warren is sharp and aggressive, and KLOBUCHAR has an exceedingly strong emoji game.0 -
Because the people doing it are doing so in violation of the mandate they sought in 2017. It will only work once they have a fresh mandate, to vote their conscience on all matters.AlastairMeeks said:
That has already largely occurred in the wake of Brexit. It's not generally seen to have been a positive development so far.MarqueeMark said:
The one thing hugely to be hoped for that comes out of the TIGs is the breakdown of the Whips system - and for politicians to vote, issue by issue, as their conscience dictates. If they can deliver that, they will have changed things.0 -
I don't think he works as kingmaker, because he has his own cult following, and everyone else hates him, and they hate everyone else.IanB2 said:
Surely this time Bernie wants to be kingmaker, not king?edmundintokyo said:
Pulpstar's point, which I think is very astute, is that Bernie is jumping in with strong name recognition and lots of money and becomes the defacto leader. That leaves the rest in a bunch behind, and it's not a huge benefit to be the leader of the rest, and anyone could just as easily be the one to jump ahead.DecrepitJohnL said:
Kamala Harris is 3/1 generally which implies a 25 per cent chance of her winning the Democrat nomination. It is not so obviously absurd that I'd be rushing to lay her at the price, but I've not done the work to price up the whole field.Pulpstar said:Away from Brexit, is anyone else laying Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination now ?
The kingmaker is AOC.0 -
Stephen Bush doing an AMA over on Reddit in ten minutes, which could be entertaining. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/asomgn/i_am_stephen_bush_political_editor_of_the_new/0
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A mistake to fight both these seats as they will be seen - until / if they attract less anti-Remain figures - as a pro-Remain grouping. Putting a poor performance in both these by-elections would put a serious dent in their futures. Sitting them out, on the other hand, does not do them any fundamental damage.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.0 -
Lol.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.
Someone popular of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force0 -
I think the mass murder/lying bastard thing is a bit of a drawback.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.0 -
She doesn't inspire but I'm keeping a small green number next to 1/2020th for a reason.edmundintokyo said:
I don't think he works as kingmaker, because he has his own cult following, and everyone else hates him, and they hate everyone else.IanB2 said:
Surely this time Bernie wants to be kingmaker, not king?edmundintokyo said:
Pulpstar's point, which I think is very astute, is that Bernie is jumping in with strong name recognition and lots of money and becomes the defacto leader. That leaves the rest in a bunch behind, and it's not a huge benefit to be the leader of the rest, and anyone could just as easily be the one to jump ahead.DecrepitJohnL said:
Kamala Harris is 3/1 generally which implies a 25 per cent chance of her winning the Democrat nomination. It is not so obviously absurd that I'd be rushing to lay her at the price, but I've not done the work to price up the whole field.Pulpstar said:Away from Brexit, is anyone else laying Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination now ?
The kingmaker is AOC.0 -
Agree on that. Klobuchar should have been an ideal candidate to take on Trump in many ways. But I think some of her recent comments and / or the bullying allegations have taken some of the wind out of her sails.Pulpstar said:
I still like my bet on Klobuchar at 40s, but not sure some of her recent statements will appeal to the Democrat base !edmundintokyo said:
The thing I've been banging on about since forever is that Kamala's social media presence is dull af. I think you need some spikiness to win a modern campaign, especially with a crowded field like this. But if you were going to win it by being solid and workmanlike, you have to take a lead and keep it, and she just lost it.Pulpstar said:
i) There's a tonne of candidatesDecrepitJohnL said:
Kamala Harris is 3/1 generally which implies a 25 per cent chance of her winning the Democrat nomination. It is not so obviously absurd that I'd be rushing to lay her at the price, but I've not done the work to price up the whole field.Pulpstar said:Away from Brexit, is anyone else laying Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination now ?
ii) She doesn't lead the polling.
This is Rubio MK II
In contrast Warren is sharp and aggressive, and KLOBUCHAR has an exceedingly strong emoji game.
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Maybe Osborne could fit it in amongst his other jobs.david_herdson said:
Lol.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.
Someone popular of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force0 -
I think they have to take the chance, however poor.TheKitchenCabinet said:
A mistake to fight both these seats as they will be seen - until / if they attract less anti-Remain figures - as a pro-Remain grouping. Putting a poor performance in both these by-elections would put a serious dent in their futures. Sitting them out, on the other hand, does not do them any fundamental damage.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.0 -
Oh I think it does. You are only the new shiny thing once and you need to strike then.TheKitchenCabinet said:
A mistake to fight both these seats as they will be seen - until / if they attract less anti-Remain figures - as a pro-Remain grouping. Putting a poor performance in both these by-elections would put a serious dent in their futures. Sitting them out, on the other hand, does not do them any fundamental damage.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.0 -
Gerry Adams?david_herdson said:
Lol.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.
Someone popular of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force0 -
No it didn't! Polls carried out at the time of the SDP launch in late March 1981 had the SDP plus Liberals in the lead - though the polls were just as hypothetical as those we are seeing today.IanB2 said:
In 1981 it took ten months from Limehouse Declaration to leading the polls._Anazina_ said:
At this rate of growth, they'll be leading the polls within a couple of weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:
WowSlackbladder said:REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11
LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL0 -
I notice that Blair hasn't said anything this week. Keeping his options open before supporting TIG?0
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Still its early days and she definitely has some fizz about her.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Agree on that. Klobuchar should have been an ideal candidate to take on Trump in many ways. But I think some of her recent comments and / or the bullying allegations have taken some of the wind out of her sails.Pulpstar said:
I still like my bet on Klobuchar at 40s, but not sure some of her recent statements will appeal to the Democrat base !edmundintokyo said:
The thing I've been banging on about since forever is that Kamala's social media presence is dull af. I think you need some spikiness to win a modern campaign, especially with a crowded field like this. But if you were going to win it by being solid and workmanlike, you have to take a lead and keep it, and she just lost it.Pulpstar said:
i) There's a tonne of candidatesDecrepitJohnL said:
Kamala Harris is 3/1 generally which implies a 25 per cent chance of her winning the Democrat nomination. It is not so obviously absurd that I'd be rushing to lay her at the price, but I've not done the work to price up the whole field.Pulpstar said:Away from Brexit, is anyone else laying Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination now ?
ii) She doesn't lead the polling.
This is Rubio MK II
In contrast Warren is sharp and aggressive, and KLOBUCHAR has an exceedingly strong emoji game.0 -
I presume Tony Blair is still a member of the Labour Party?tlg86 said:I notice that Blair hasn't said anything this week. Keeping his options open before supporting TIG?
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Look David, we are talking British politicians here. "Popular" is wildly aspirational. Not actively hated by a majority is pretty damn good.david_herdson said:
Lol.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.
Someone popular of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force0 -
The democratic party, owned and paid for by the establishment, will never pick a socialist. As for 2020, events dear boy, eventsedmundintokyo said:
I don't think he works as kingmaker, because he has his own cult following, and everyone else hates him, and they hate everyone else.IanB2 said:
Surely this time Bernie wants to be kingmaker, not king?edmundintokyo said:
Pulpstar's point, which I think is very astute, is that Bernie is jumping in with strong name recognition and lots of money and becomes the defacto leader. That leaves the rest in a bunch behind, and it's not a huge benefit to be the leader of the rest, and anyone could just as easily be the one to jump ahead.DecrepitJohnL said:
Kamala Harris is 3/1 generally which implies a 25 per cent chance of her winning the Democrat nomination. It is not so obviously absurd that I'd be rushing to lay her at the price, but I've not done the work to price up the whole field.Pulpstar said:Away from Brexit, is anyone else laying Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination now ?
The kingmaker is AOC.
AOC suffers from being overhyped by the media. She's fairly simple and a couple years of the pit face will blunt her enthusiasm0 -
He is probably popular with the demographic attracted to this groupdavid_herdson said:
Lol.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.
Someone popular of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force0 -
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Straw in the wind. A mate of mine, lifelong Labour has just WhatsApped me out of the blue to say he has donated. The future is bright, the future is charcoal!SouthamObserver said:
I have registered interest. I am definitely open to persuasion, but not committed.IanB2 said:
Have you joined, yet, SO? Surely you must tell us that you have.SouthamObserver said:
I do think it's fair to say that a lot of Corbyn's vote is personal rather than ideological. The reason he has not already stepped down from a job he clearly hates is that there is no obvious successor from his wing of the party.david_herdson said:
.DecrepitJohnL said:
If that is what the TIGgers wanted, maybe they should have remembered Corbyn is even older than Mike Gapes and just waited for him to step down.OblitusSumMe said:
Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.Wulfrun_Phil said:There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.
1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.
2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.
3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.
Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.
I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.0 -
If the new group takes 90% of its support from Labour and LDs and only 10% from the Tories, the whole thing is a waste of time, to be blunt. The Tories will win a landslide with FPTP.0
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Actually following the SDP defections Labour was barely above 240 in 1983.dyedwoolie said:
Yeah but 1983 labour weren't this shower and didn't go in on 240 seatsydoethur said:
So did the SDP, but it didn't finish Labour.dyedwoolie said:However I think the Tiggers will poll in the 20s at an election. Labour are finished.
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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983justin124 said:
No it didn't! Polls carried out at the time of the SDP launch in late March 1981 had the SDP plus Liberals in the lead - though the polls were just as hypothetical as those we are seeing today.IanB2 said:
In 1981 it took ten months from Limehouse Declaration to leading the polls._Anazina_ said:
At this rate of growth, they'll be leading the polls within a couple of weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:
WowSlackbladder said:REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11
LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL
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About that move to Paris.....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-473052270 -
https://twitter.com/edballs/status/63623585020915713david_herdson said:
Lol.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.
Someone popular of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force0 -
Who watches PPBs nowadays anyway? It's hardly a "problem". They don't show on either Amazon, YouTube or Netflix.justin124 said:
Because this Group did not exist at the time of the 2017 election it will have little entitlement to coverage by the Broadcasters during an election campaign . A single PPB would be allocated to it. The same problem will affect Farage's Brexit Party.kinabalu said:I think this could be big. Perhaps the main thing they need, the Tiggers, is for the Tory leadership to be captured by the hard right in the way that Labour's has been captured by the hard left. In that case, given a good leader for both TIG and the LDs, and if they work in tandem, I can see a new centrist grouping winning many seats at a GE. For example, if JC vs JRM were to be the choice for PM laid before the electorate, then many will bridle at that and will appreciate a serious alternative.
Unfortunately (from the TIG viewpoint) I suspect the Tories are too pragmatic and power grubbing to allow that to happen. They will not choose a headbanger to replace TM. In which case we might be SDP Liberal Alliance all over again and the effect will be to hard-code the Tory Party into government for the foreseeable future.
But then - wild card - there is Farage's new reactionary populist party potentially surging to the right of the Tories. That could make it all very different this time.
Gosh, who knows. Really interesting time to be alive.0 -
I reckon this new party should be called the we are considerably better than you party.0
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But already more support is coming from the Tories than that, and this is polling before the Tories began to fracture.AndyJS said:If the new group takes 90% of its support from Labour and LDs and only 10% from the Tories, the whole thing is a waste of time, to be blunt. The Tories will win a landslide with FPTP.
0 -
I don't think the TIGers are going to try to be a cohesive political party in the near future. The reasons for this are firstly that there's no electoral route to making substantial progress in the foreseeable future in a polarised, FPTP system, and secondly that they won't be able to agree a tax and spending position which both Anna Soubry and Mike Gapes can agree on, to take just two names. Instead, I think they will remain as a much more amorphous group of independent MPs who come together to try to 'take control' of Brexit and to moan about the state of their two original parties. This may sound rather feeble, but perhaps it isn't: imagine a situation where 50 MPs defect to them from each of the other two parties, which doesn't sound to me too unthinkable if Labour continues as it is and the ERG continue to drive the government towards the cliff-edge.
Ultimately, if this is to become a significant long-term realignment rather than an eventual footnote in the history of UK politics, it will I think have to be on the basis that two separate parties (centre-left and centre-right) emerge from the amorphous mass, leaving the established Labour and Conservative parties as mavericks on the fringes. To be clear, I'm not saying this is likely, but I think it is more likely than the TIGgers becoming a significant electoral force as a single traditional party.0 -
love to be at the kitchen table of the Cooper-Balls household with that.Sandpit said:
https://twitter.com/edballs/status/63623585020915713david_herdson said:
Lol.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.
Someone popular of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force0 -
WE KNOW BESTtlg86 said:I reckon this new party should be called the we are considerably better than you party.
0 -
Strange that Tigger website only has 10 MPs listed on it. How come no Joan Ryan?
https://www.theindependent.group/who-we-are0 -
That table does not convey the full picture in that it is limited to the headline figures of the time. Hypothetical poll data has not been included there - though the SDP on its own was recording figures of 25% - 30% in Spring 1981. Their support fell back a bit over the summer but then surged again at the end of the year in the wake of by election wins at Croydon NW and Crosby.IanB2 said:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983justin124 said:
No it didn't! Polls carried out at the time of the SDP launch in late March 1981 had the SDP plus Liberals in the lead - though the polls were just as hypothetical as those we are seeing today.IanB2 said:
In 1981 it took ten months from Limehouse Declaration to leading the polls._Anazina_ said:
At this rate of growth, they'll be leading the polls within a couple of weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:
WowSlackbladder said:REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11
LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL0 -
The poll I saw had Con 38%, Lab 26%, which is only a slight drop for the Tories.IanB2 said:
But already more support is coming from the Tories than that, and this is polling before the Tories began to fracture.AndyJS said:If the new group takes 90% of its support from Labour and LDs and only 10% from the Tories, the whole thing is a waste of time, to be blunt. The Tories will win a landslide with FPTP.
0 -
In the YouGov poll they take 8% of 2017 Tories, 19% Labour and 39% Lib Dem - turning that into numbers of people to account for the different base sizes and it is T:L:Ld of 49:109:41, which in % terms is 25% from Tories, 75% Labour and LDs - but this was before TIG defectors from the Tories were announced.AndyJS said:If the new group takes 90% of its support from Labour and LDs and only 10% from the Tories, the whole thing is a waste of time, to be blunt. The Tories will win a landslide with FPTP.
They could be doing worse.0 -
We couldn't defend Gibraltar against a 'surprise' spanish attack. I think the Government would count on a period of rising tensions to send a fishary protection vessel there.dyedwoolie said:
We just stop buying their straw donkeys and paella. Bankrupt themDecrepitJohnL said:
Whether we could defend Gibraltar against a hypothetical Spanish invasion is a more open question, once Gavin Williamson's finished with China.dyedwoolie said:
Bit more difficult today with RAF mount pleasant etc. Argentina has f all military capabilityRecidivist said:
You are assuming Argentina won't try to take advantage of UK divisions to grab the Falklands.Wulfrun_Phil said:
In terms of historic parallels, we are at the January 1981 stage, i.e. The equivalent of the Council for Social Democracy was launched 2 days ago. Without General Galteiri in 1982, how would 1983 have played out?AndyJS said:The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
We could, however, cause sufficient damage to the Spanish economy (donkeys and paella included) so that the Spanish would realise their best interests lay in backing off.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Harris at 4? Is that on Ladbrokes/Betfair?
I'd be very inclined to lay (backed her at much longer odds thanks to a tip from Mr. Smithson).0 -
OK here's the plan.
Everyone, and I mean everyone on PB to register as a PPC for TIG. Here we are carping from the sidelines, most of us (apart from @HYUFD and @Tissue_Price , obvs) have badmouthed every side of the political spectrum so no skeletons in that department. As for other skeletons, we should follow @SeanT's lead and look at our posting history, or maybe not.
And off to the races. Official Launch (x2) somewhere in the Guinness Village.
Who's with me?0 -
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I think hers was a genuines spur if the moment choice and she's not had a chance to confirm with them she's in as a full tigger. She wasn't on the radar for themTrèsDifficile said:Strange that Tigger website only has 10 MPs listed on it. How come no Joan Ryan?
https://www.theindependent.group/who-we-are0 -
They would get copious amounts of coverage on the BBC as an untainted LD Party.justin124 said:
Because this Group did not exist at the time of the 2017 election it will have little entitlement to coverage by the Broadcasters during an election campaign . A single PPB would be allocated to it. The same problem will affect Farage's Brexit Party.kinabalu said:I think this could be big. Perhaps the main thing they need, the Tiggers, is for the Tory leadership to be captured by the hard right in the way that Labour's has been captured by the hard left. In that case, given a good leader for both TIG and the LDs, and if they work in tandem, I can see a new centrist grouping winning many seats at a GE. For example, if JC vs JRM were to be the choice for PM laid before the electorate, then many will bridle at that and will appreciate a serious alternative.
Unfortunately (from the TIG viewpoint) I suspect the Tories are too pragmatic and power grubbing to allow that to happen. They will not choose a headbanger to replace TM. In which case we might be SDP Liberal Alliance all over again and the effect will be to hard-code the Tory Party into government for the foreseeable future.
But then - wild card - there is Farage's new reactionary populist party potentially surging to the right of the Tories. That could make it all very different this time.
Gosh, who knows. Really interesting time to be alive.0 -
Betfair. Dem nomination market, layable at 4.2/4.3Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Harris at 4? Is that on Ladbrokes/Betfair?
I'd be very inclined to lay (backed her at much longer odds thanks to a tip from Mr. Smithson).0 -
Genius. Very crisp namebigjohnowls said:0 -
Agreed, very tough to defend on current basis.TheAncientMariner said:
We couldn't defend Gibraltar against a 'surprise' spanish attack. I think the Government would count on a period of rising tensions to send a fishary protection vessel there.dyedwoolie said:
We just stop buying their straw donkeys and paella. Bankrupt themDecrepitJohnL said:
Whether we could defend Gibraltar against a hypothetical Spanish invasion is a more open question, once Gavin Williamson's finished with China.dyedwoolie said:
Bit more difficult today with RAF mount pleasant etc. Argentina has f all military capabilityRecidivist said:
You are assuming Argentina won't try to take advantage of UK divisions to grab the Falklands.Wulfrun_Phil said:
In terms of historic parallels, we are at the January 1981 stage, i.e. The equivalent of the Council for Social Democracy was launched 2 days ago. Without General Galteiri in 1982, how would 1983 have played out?AndyJS said:The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
We could, however, cause sufficient damage to the Spanish economy (donkeys and paella included) so that the Spanish would realise their best interests lay in backing off.0 -
One for Mr Dancer:
George Russell finally makes it out on the track for Williams
https://twitter.com/WilliamsRacing/status/10982151107772334080 -
But they can get away with it by saying, unlike the SDP for example, that they are not an organised party and therefore they prefer to take their time. If they get a bad result in both those seats, the most important consequence will be that it may dissuade other MPS to defect.DavidL said:
Oh I think it does. You are only the new shiny thing once and you need to strike then.TheKitchenCabinet said:
A mistake to fight both these seats as they will be seen - until / if they attract less anti-Remain figures - as a pro-Remain grouping. Putting a poor performance in both these by-elections would put a serious dent in their futures. Sitting them out, on the other hand, does not do them any fundamental damage.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.0 -
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Those options are possible, but I also see no reason why the pattern of the 80s isn't repeated: a substantial flash in the pan by a bunch of people who knew they were finished in the two main parties.. eye-catching by-election gains, decent polling but not built on strong organisational foundations. Then the other two realise WTF's happening and start a race back from the extremes to the centre, and the LibDems gratefully scoop up a few remaining Tiggers when it fades away.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think the TIGers are going to try to be a cohesive political party in the near future. The reasons for this are firstly that there's no electoral route to making substantial progress in the foreseeable future in a polarised, FPTP system, and secondly that they won't be able to agree a tax and spending position which both Anna Soubry and Mike Gapes can agree on, to take just two names. Instead, I think they will remain as a much more amorphous group of independent MPs who come together to try to 'take control' of Brexit and to moan about the state of their two original parties. This may sound rather feeble, but perhaps it isn't: imagine a situation where 50 MPs defect to them from each of the other two parties, which doesn't sound to me too unthinkable if Labour continues as it is and the ERG continue to drive the government towards the cliff-edge.
Ultimately, if this is to become a significant long-term realignment rather than an eventual footnote in the history of UK politics, it will I think have to be on the basis that two separate parties (centre-left and centre-right) emerge from the amorphous mass, leaving the established Labour and Conservative parties as mavericks on the fringes. To be clear, I'm not saying this is likely, but I think it is more likely than the TIGgers becoming a significant electoral force as a single traditional party.
0 -
Reckon her inbox yesterday was full of Labour 'friends' telling her where she should go. So she did.dyedwoolie said:
I think hers was a genuines spur if the moment choice and she's not had a chance to confirm with them she's in as a full tigger. She wasn't on the radar for themTrèsDifficile said:Strange that Tigger website only has 10 MPs listed on it. How come no Joan Ryan?
https://www.theindependent.group/who-we-are0 -
Point of order: I think I probably have delicately badmouthed every side of the political spectrum at some point, including my own portion of it.TOPPING said:OK here's the plan.
Everyone, and I mean everyone on PB to register as a PPC for TIG. Here we are carping from the sidelines, most of us (apart from @HYUFD and @Tissue_Price , obvs) have badmouthed every side of the political spectrum so no skeletons in that department. As for other skeletons, we should follow @SeanT's lead and look at our posting history, or maybe not.
And off to the races. Official Launch (x2) somewhere in the Guinness Village.
Who's with me?0 -
You might be right. But the differences within TIG aren't as great as within either current Tory or current Labour. No-one tasked with creating from scratch a set of parties to embrace the current spread of political opinion would come up with the current Tory-Labour structure.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think the TIGers are going to try to be a cohesive political party in the near future. The reasons for this are firstly that there's no electoral route to making substantial progress in the foreseeable future in a polarised, FPTP system, and secondly that they won't be able to agree a tax and spending position which both Anna Soubry and Mike Gapes can agree on, to take just two names. Instead, I think they will remain as a much more amorphous group of independent MPs who come together to try to 'take control' of Brexit and to moan about the state of their two original parties. This may sound rather feeble, but perhaps it isn't: imagine a situation where 50 MPs defect to them from each of the other two parties, which doesn't sound to me too unthinkable if Labour continues as it is and the ERG continue to drive the government towards the cliff-edge.
Ultimately, if this is to become a significant long-term realignment rather than an eventual footnote in the history of UK politics, it will I think have to be on the basis that two separate parties (centre-left and centre-right) emerge from the amorphous mass, leaving the established Labour and Conservative parties as mavericks on the fringes. To be clear, I'm not saying this is likely, but I think it is more likely than the TIGgers becoming a significant electoral force as a single traditional party.0 -
Baxtering Con 38%, Lab 26%, Lib Dems/TIG 21%, gives 349, 207, 29.0
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Bit useless of them not to quickly sort out the website update (which has happened since her joining) to reflect that. Looks amateurish.dyedwoolie said:
I think hers was a genuines spur if the moment choice and she's not had a chance to confirm with them she's in as a full tigger. She wasn't on the radar for themTrèsDifficile said:Strange that Tigger website only has 10 MPs listed on it. How come no Joan Ryan?
https://www.theindependent.group/who-we-are0 -
Tissue_Price said:
Point of order: I think I probably have delicately badmouthed every side of the political spectrum at some point, including my own portion of it.TOPPING said:OK here's the plan.
Everyone, and I mean everyone on PB to register as a PPC for TIG. Here we are carping from the sidelines, most of us (apart from @HYUFD and @Tissue_Price , obvs) have badmouthed every side of the political spectrum so no skeletons in that department. As for other skeletons, we should follow @SeanT's lead and look at our posting history, or maybe not.
And off to the races. Official Launch (x2) somewhere in the Guinness Village.
Who's with me?
0 -
The bigger TIG get, the smaller the differences in the other two... and at the next election there’s a chance that Labour and Tories have the same number of MP’s as now, with fewer moderates/rebelsIanB2 said:
You might be right. But the differences within TIG aren't as great as within either current Tory or current Labour. No-one tasked with creating from scratch a set of parties to embrace the current spread of political opinion would come up with the current Tory-Labour structure.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think the TIGers are going to try to be a cohesive political party in the near future. The reasons for this are firstly that there's no electoral route to making substantial progress in the foreseeable future in a polarised, FPTP system, and secondly that they won't be able to agree a tax and spending position which both Anna Soubry and Mike Gapes can agree on, to take just two names. Instead, I think they will remain as a much more amorphous group of independent MPs who come together to try to 'take control' of Brexit and to moan about the state of their two original parties. This may sound rather feeble, but perhaps it isn't: imagine a situation where 50 MPs defect to them from each of the other two parties, which doesn't sound to me too unthinkable if Labour continues as it is and the ERG continue to drive the government towards the cliff-edge.
Ultimately, if this is to become a significant long-term realignment rather than an eventual footnote in the history of UK politics, it will I think have to be on the basis that two separate parties (centre-left and centre-right) emerge from the amorphous mass, leaving the established Labour and Conservative parties as mavericks on the fringes. To be clear, I'm not saying this is likely, but I think it is more likely than the TIGgers becoming a significant electoral force as a single traditional party.0 -
I don't think Blair is popular with anyone these days. He has (or had) the worst net rating of any UK politician with YouGov's rating charts (-39). Corbyn is -21 for comparison; May, -20.DonTsInferno_ said:
He is probably popular with the demographic attracted to this groupdavid_herdson said:
Lol.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.
Someone popular of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/overview(popup:ratings/politics/politicians-political-figures/all)0 -
Public Figuredavid_herdson said:
I don't think Blair is popular with anyone these days. He has (or had) the worst net rating of any UK politician with YouGov's rating charts (-39). Corbyn is -21 for comparison; May, -20.DonTsInferno_ said:
He is probably popular with the demographic attracted to this groupdavid_herdson said:
Lol.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.
Someone popular of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/overview(popup:ratings/politics/politicians-political-figures/all)
Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson is the most popular Conservative politician and the 3rd most famous. Boris Johnson is described by fans as: Conservative, Humorous, Intelligent, Charismatic and Clever.0 -
Public Figure
Liam Fox
Liam Fox is the 19th most popular Conservative politician and the 21st most famous. Liam Fox is described by fans as: Conservative, Intelligent, Patriotic, Knowledgeable and A leader.0 -
Christopher Chope
Christopher Chope is the 70th most popular Conservative politician and the 67th most famous. Christopher Chope is described by fans as: Farsighted, Accomplished, Authoritative, Admirable and Stands up for ordinary people.0 -
And there's the point to answer Richard. TIG offers the Lib Dems and their army of by-election-hungry activists the opportunity to wipe off the Coalition years and start again.Scott_P said:0 -
Hmmm who could the big name be? Maybe there isn’t one.david_herdson said:
I don't think Blair is popular with anyone these days. He has (or had) the worst net rating of any UK politician with YouGov's rating charts (-39). Corbyn is -21 for comparison; May, -20.DonTsInferno_ said:
He is probably popular with the demographic attracted to this groupdavid_herdson said:
Lol.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.
Someone popular of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/overview(popup:ratings/politics/politicians-political-figures/all)
The new collective seem to like Blair’s policies though. Perhaps it is time for David Miliband0 -
Is anyone else getting confused about the phrase "a purple momentum?" I've just realised that it's being used to describe the ERG in the Tory Party, but I thought it was to do with TIG being a mix of red and blue.0
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Have those figures not been updated recently? Corbyn's rating seems out of line with his downturn in most polls.david_herdson said:
I don't think Blair is popular with anyone these days. He has (or had) the worst net rating of any UK politician with YouGov's rating charts (-39). Corbyn is -21 for comparison; May, -20.DonTsInferno_ said:
He is probably popular with the demographic attracted to this groupdavid_herdson said:
Lol.tlg86 said:
Blair.DavidL said:So, we have 1, probably 2 bye elections pending. What are the Tiggers going to do? They absolutely need profile and media attention so sitting them out is not an option. They need a big name who isn't an MP who can build some very rapid momentum. They also need to trample over the Lib Dems, one each is not going to cut it for them, especially as everyone wants Peterborough.
Perhaps its me, as the late, great Lord Macfadyen used to say when firing an Exocet in my direction, but is this situation not crying out for David Milliband? Or Ed Balls? Someone of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force, even if they are unlikely to take Newport. Most of the early SDP success came from the willingness of their big guns to get over the parapets and fight on apparently unpropitious territory. Tiggers need to do the same.
Someone popular of that ilk coming on board at this point would transform the Tiggers into a real political force
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/overview(popup:ratings/politics/politicians-political-figures/all)0 -
Although to be fair, they've both held those views inside the same party for the past 5 years.Tissue_Price said:0 -
If Ed Balls were to run for TIG and win a bye election it would make them into a much bigger political force to be reckoned with.
Also, I don't think they should sully their image with the tired Lib Dems. If the Lib Dems want to join they should defect. Their brand is completely toxic.0 -
11 heroes, in my opinion. Of course I'm disappointed that none of the 11 have come over to the Lib Dems- but political ideas are of more value than political parties are. Anything that widens the centre ground is fine by me.SandyRentool said:So is it 8 traitors and 3 heroes, or 8 heroes and 3 traitors?
The only cross-party consensus appears to be from those who have the hots for both Heidi and Luciana.0 -
A lot of people have joined the Conservative Party over the past year. The three Wandsworth associations have put on about 600 members, for example. Some of them are entryists, inspired by Aaron Banks, but I think more are people who are worried by the risk of Corbyn getting elected and/or people who are interested in getting a vote if Theresa May is ousted. In all likelihood, the vast majority will be Leavers.tlg86 said:Is anyone else getting confused about the phrase "a purple momentum?" I've just realised that it's being used to describe the ERG in the Tory Party, but I thought it was to do with TIG being a mix of red and blue.
0 -
"There's no electoral route." That's one of those myths like "We can't have a general election till 2022."Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think the TIGers are going to try to be a cohesive political party in the near future. The reasons for this are firstly that there's no electoral route to making substantial progress in the foreseeable future in a polarised, FPTP system, and secondly that they won't be able to agree a tax and spending position which both Anna Soubry and Mike Gapes can agree on, to take just two names. Instead, I think they will remain as a much more amorphous group of independent MPs who come together to try to 'take control' of Brexit and to moan about the state of their two original parties. This may sound rather feeble, but perhaps it isn't: imagine a situation where 50 MPs defect to them from each of the other two parties, which doesn't sound to me too unthinkable if Labour continues as it is and the ERG continue to drive the government towards the cliff-edge.
Ultimately, if this is to become a significant long-term realignment rather than an eventual footnote in the history of UK politics, it will I think have to be on the basis that two separate parties (centre-left and centre-right) emerge from the amorphous mass, leaving the established Labour and Conservative parties as mavericks on the fringes. To be clear, I'm not saying this is likely, but I think it is more likely than the TIGgers becoming a significant electoral force as a single traditional party.
If the Tiggers can get above 30% there is very definitely an electoral route. You may remember that at one point the SDP were polling at 50%, and I expect the Tiggers to soon be polling over 20%, even before they actually exist as a party. The problem then is timing. If there was an election later this year they'd have a good chance of being above 30% in the polls and winning a significant number of seats. (Somewhat reminiscent of what happened with Macron's party.) If the next election really is in 2022, I expect the bubble to have burst by then.
The lack of cohesion as a political force is a problem. But at least they're marketing themselves as independents, which gives them some leeway. They could say that they disagree fundamentally on some issues but they'll behave like a coalition and find a consensus. This may be a turn-on, rather than a turn-off, for electors.
This may sound mad, but I think they should be the "gilets roses" - they should make the wearing of pink hi-vis gilets the symbol of their movement - as a counterpoint to the yellow vests of the alt-right nutters who waste the police's time in our city centres on Saturday lunchtimes (before they go to the football).0 -
Tony Blair would kill TIG stone cold dead if he appeared on the scene.
However, it would be funny to watch the collective explosive aneurysms of the Corbynistas.0 -
Today's poll *already* puts LD+TIG over 20%.Dadge said:
"There's no electoral route." That's one of those myths like "We can't have a general election till 2022."Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think the TIGers are going to try to be a cohesive political party in the near future. The reasons for this are firstly that there's no electoral route to making substantial progress in the foreseeable future in a polarised, FPTP system, and secondly that they won't be able to agree a tax and spending position which both Anna Soubry and Mike Gapes can agree on, to take just two names. Instead, I think they will remain as a much more amorphous group of independent MPs who come together to try to 'take control' of Brexit and to moan about the state of their two original parties. This may sound rather feeble, but perhaps it isn't: imagine a situation where 50 MPs defect to them from each of the other two parties, which doesn't sound to me too unthinkable if Labour continues as it is and the ERG continue to drive the government towards the cliff-edge.
Ultimately, if this is to become a significant long-term realignment rather than an eventual footnote in the history of UK politics, it will I think have to be on the basis that two separate parties (centre-left and centre-right) emerge from the amorphous mass, leaving the established Labour and Conservative parties as mavericks on the fringes. To be clear, I'm not saying this is likely, but I think it is more likely than the TIGgers becoming a significant electoral force as a single traditional party.
If the Tiggers can get above 30% there is very definitely an electoral route. You may remember that at one point the SDP were polling at 50%, and I expect the Tiggers to soon be polling over 20%, even before they actually exist as a party. The problem then is timing. If there was an election later this year they'd have a good chance of being above 30% in the polls and winning a significant number of seats. (Somewhat reminiscent of what happened with Macron's party.) If the next election really is in 2022, I expect the bubble to have burst by then.
The lack of cohesion as a political force is a problem. But at least they're marketing themselves as independents, which gives them some leeway. They could say that they disagree fundamentally on some issues but they'll behave like a coalition and find a consensus. This may be a turn-on, rather than a turn-off, for electors.
This may sound mad, but I think they should be the "gilets roses" - they should make the wearing of pink hi-vis gilets the symbol of their movement - as a counterpoint to the yellow vests of the alt-right nutters who waste the police's time in our city centres on Saturday lunchtimes (before they go to the football).0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, cheers.
I tend to dislike shuffling money, but if I can't lay that on the Ladbrokes Exchange I might have to do so, as it's too good to miss.
Mr. Sandpit, good to see the Williams out at last.0 -
Standby for a Betfair chart under the headline "Odds slashed on Tissue Price as leader of new party"Tissue_Price said:
Point of order: I think I probably have delicately badmouthed every side of the political spectrum at some point, including my own portion of it.TOPPING said:OK here's the plan.
Everyone, and I mean everyone on PB to register as a PPC for TIG. Here we are carping from the sidelines, most of us (apart from @HYUFD and @Tissue_Price , obvs) have badmouthed every side of the political spectrum so no skeletons in that department. As for other skeletons, we should follow @SeanT's lead and look at our posting history, or maybe not.
And off to the races. Official Launch (x2) somewhere in the Guinness Village.
Who's with me?0
