politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now three CON MPs defect to the TIGers
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The one with TIG included: 12 points behind a government in disarray and within MoE of Labour's worst-ever share in opposition?BannedInParis said:
what on earth would a bad poll look like?nico67 said:The YouGov normal poll with Labour only down one is good considering the wall to wall coverage of the Labour resignations . Now that some Tories have jumped ship we best wait to see whether that effects things . But its clear Labour will be hit badly especially in urban areas if they don’t support a second vote .
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Yes, it was a bit brief, he is predictably annoying. I've explained below.Stereotomy said:
Great response, I love how you logically took his argument apart point-by-point_Anazina_ said:
Wrong. However much you wish it were true.TGOHF said:https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/
"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."0 -
Yes but there was no Brexit process already in place back then.viewcode said:
IIRC the Labour Party stood under a manifesto in 83 that explicitly advocated leaving the EEC. Google "the longest suicide note in history".Sunil_Prasannan said:
What was the direct equivalent of Brexit back in '83?IanB2 said:
SDP fought P'boro in 1983 and got 23% from a previous Liberal 10%YBarddCwsc said:Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.
Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.
I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.
Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?0 -
There has always been a significant overlap between the view of the moderates in the two major parties. If both are determined to rid themselves of their centrists, actively or passively, it will create a large constituency for a party of the centre.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think it is overdoing it. It isn't like JRM has joined the Tiggers. Two of the three MPs who have left the Tories were fans of Cameron's direction for the Tory party, which wasn't a million miles away from New Labour.TGOHF said:https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/
"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."
Support for remain is another overlapping but not identical set. Which encompasses somewhere around half of the electorate at a minimum.0 -
Chris Williamson 'helping' on Sky News. FFS.0
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Todays you gov isBarnesian said:Latest EMA using today's YouGov. (I'm ignoring TIG polls for the moment as hard to interpret.)
Con 39.0% Lab 36.4% LD 9.6%
Con 317
Lab 254
LD 17
SNP 40
PC 3
Grn 1
Con 9 short of overall majority (very similar to now)
Con+DUP 327
Lab+others 315
Which will she choose - an early GE on her deal, or her deal with referendum on it? I think the former.
Cons 41
Lab 33
Libs 10
Ukip 4
Green 4
Gives a con majority of 320 -
I am of the conclusion he is worse than Red Ken and Gorgeous George combined.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Chris Williamson 'helping' on Sky News. FFS.
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The advantage of setting themselves up as they have rather than a new party is they are not under immediate pressure to prove themselves and risk a poor performance that would put off potential defectors. It would be smart of them not to contest either seatydoethur said:
Yes, but the vision always ends with a paramedic called by some kindly person sedating him and taking him away to calm down.YBarddCwsc said:Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.
Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.
I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.
Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?
Edit - the whole point is (leaving aside the lack of a Peterborough by-election) they are not a party (yet) so will not be fielding candidates. They may endorse the Liberal Democrats but I doubt it.0 -
They are sensible, sane, liberal and pro-business. Which for a large proportion of the electorate seems like sheer Nirvana compared to the anti-commerce, bigoted clowns we have controlling the two major parties.TGOHF said:
You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?_Anazina_ said:
Wrong. However much you wish it were true.TGOHF said:https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/
"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."
Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?0 -
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That must be why the Lib Dems keep getting such great results._Anazina_ said:
They are sensible, sane, liberal and pro-business. Which for a large proportion of the electorate seems like sheer Nirvana compared to the anti-commerce, bigoted clowns we have controlling the two major parties.TGOHF said:
You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?_Anazina_ said:
Wrong. However much you wish it were true.TGOHF said:https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/
"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."
Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?0 -
Isn't his from a moving average of polling (the MA in the EMA)?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Todays you gov isBarnesian said:Latest EMA using today's YouGov. (I'm ignoring TIG polls for the moment as hard to interpret.)
Con 39.0% Lab 36.4% LD 9.6%
Con 317
Lab 254
LD 17
SNP 40
PC 3
Grn 1
Con 9 short of overall majority (very similar to now)
Con+DUP 327
Lab+others 315
Which will she choose - an early GE on her deal, or her deal with referendum on it? I think the former.
Cons 41
Lab 33
Libs 10
Ukip 4
Green 4
Gives a con majority of 320 -
But why do that when you can pick the poll you like most?TrèsDifficile said:
Isn't his from a moving average of polling (the MA in the EMA)?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Todays you gov isBarnesian said:Latest EMA using today's YouGov. (I'm ignoring TIG polls for the moment as hard to interpret.)
Con 39.0% Lab 36.4% LD 9.6%
Con 317
Lab 254
LD 17
SNP 40
PC 3
Grn 1
Con 9 short of overall majority (very similar to now)
Con+DUP 327
Lab+others 315
Which will she choose - an early GE on her deal, or her deal with referendum on it? I think the former.
Cons 41
Lab 33
Libs 10
Ukip 4
Green 4
Gives a con majority of 320 -
They were certainly right to wait until the Brexit endgame was in progress and at its most febrile. It's also meant that the threat of deselection has become very real for some. Six months ago there would have been no real prospect of Tories jumping ship to join Labour defectors.Richard_Nabavi said:I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?
In terms of polling, bear in mind that the YouGov poll was taken when defections were only from the Labour side. How much might be peeled off that 38% for the Conservatives on the news of today's defections?
It seems clear that the number of Labour if not Tory defectors will grow substantially in the forthcoming days. I expect that the TIG will become at least the 3rd opposition party, which is important in terms of HOC speaking rights. There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.0 -
david_herdson said:
That's where a referendum comes in, which gives some form of Brexit or anti-Brexit a majority .....
Maybe - but I can't see leave winning again tbh. Just too much bad news, and the economic weather is getting worse every month.
I'd guess we're heading for one of the two though.0 -
"British tourists travelling to continental Europe may need to pay £52 for a visa in a few weeks after Spanish demands over the status of Gibraltar again derailed Brussels’ preparations for Brexit...."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/britons-may-need-52-visa-to-visit-mainland-europe-after-brexit0 -
He's flagging up Asa Winstanley as being responsible for rooting out anti-semites. You can't make this stuff up.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am of the conclusion he is worse than Red Ken and Gorgeous George combined.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Chris Williamson 'helping' on Sky News. FFS.
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One potentially important issue is how TIG would be treated by broadcasters in a GE campaign.
With no track record in any past elections they may not be given any significant coverage / not included in debates.
However they might be included based on opinion poll ratings.
I don't think it's clear cut - and it would be very important.0 -
The first stage Bern is quite impressive:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/20/bernie-sanders-2020-presidential-campaign-fundraising0 -
Other than the second-largest political party running on a manifesto that explicitly backed leaving the EEC, after having boycotted the 1979 European Parliament election.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yes but there was no Brexit process already in place back then.viewcode said:
IIRC the Labour Party stood under a manifesto in 83 that explicitly advocated leaving the EEC. Google "the longest suicide note in history".Sunil_Prasannan said:
What was the direct equivalent of Brexit back in '83?IanB2 said:
SDP fought P'boro in 1983 and got 23% from a previous Liberal 10%YBarddCwsc said:Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.
Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.
I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.
Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?0 -
Don’t those paella eating surrender monkeys know the UK holds all the cards.Nigelb said:"British tourists travelling to continental Europe may need to pay £52 for a visa in a few weeks after Spanish demands over the status of Gibraltar again derailed Brussels’ preparations for Brexit...."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/britons-may-need-52-visa-to-visit-mainland-europe-after-brexit0 -
How many of them stood at the last election pledging not to implement Brexit? At the moment they look like the Voter-duping Collective. To coin a phrase "How can you trust anything theHYUFD said:The 3 Tory defectors already sitting with their ex Labour colleagues in the Commons as the anti Brexit faction they comprise is now the joint third biggest grouping from England, Wales and Northern Ireland in the Commons on a clear anti Brexit ticket
TIGgers ever say?"
At least Wollaston's defection means my voting Tory next time has gone from 0/10 to 6/10. Polling bounce for the Tories!0 -
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1098204625688317954_Anazina_ said:
Spot on. If Tig had failed to attract Tories, Flashman and his hard-right brethren would be falling over themselves to tell us that it was a failed project because... it had failed to attract Tories.IanB2 said:
It always was going to be a new party, if it gathered speed. What could be more anti-Corbyn than that?TGOHF said:https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/
"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."
The desire is for something new in politics and for a different sort of politics. Looking (only) like a load of Labour retreads was a handicap, not an advantage.
Looks very well orchestrated so far and has attracted several intelligent, switched on people from both sides of the House.
The yet bit is interesting...0 -
Williamson claiming false-flag antisemitism in interview on Sky News...0
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Maybe but this last few days will have sent an earthquake through polling creating a chaotic averageTrèsDifficile said:
Isn't his from a moving average of polling (the MA in the EMA)?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Todays you gov isBarnesian said:Latest EMA using today's YouGov. (I'm ignoring TIG polls for the moment as hard to interpret.)
Con 39.0% Lab 36.4% LD 9.6%
Con 317
Lab 254
LD 17
SNP 40
PC 3
Grn 1
Con 9 short of overall majority (very similar to now)
Con+DUP 327
Lab+others 315
Which will she choose - an early GE on her deal, or her deal with referendum on it? I think the former.
Cons 41
Lab 33
Libs 10
Ukip 4
Green 4
Gives a con majority of 320 -
Everytime I said an extension was going to be impossible people on here have shot me down.Nigelb said:"British tourists travelling to continental Europe may need to pay £52 for a visa in a few weeks after Spanish demands over the status of Gibraltar again derailed Brussels’ preparations for Brexit...."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/britons-may-need-52-visa-to-visit-mainland-europe-after-brexit
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In fairness they are a bunch of nobodies, led by the invisible man.Stereotomy said:
That must be why the Lib Dems keep getting such great results._Anazina_ said:
They are sensible, sane, liberal and pro-business. Which for a large proportion of the electorate seems like sheer Nirvana compared to the anti-commerce, bigoted clowns we have controlling the two major parties.TGOHF said:
You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?_Anazina_ said:
Wrong. However much you wish it were true.TGOHF said:https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/
"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."
Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?0 -
Jess Phillips joining TIG would be colossal... and given the abuse she gets from Momentum types, I could see it happening.AlastairMeeks said:
They seem to. It all looks strikingly coordinated so far, as does a lot of the media commentary coming from pre-defectors, eg:Richard_Nabavi said:I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1098203877537652736
Worth noting that she represents a seat that was Lib Dem-held until 2015, so it's not unthinkable that she could retain it as a TIG MP.0 -
Ken Livingstone: "You know who else was worse than me and Gorgeous George comb[Shut up - Ed]FrancisUrquhart said:
I am of the conclusion he is worse than Red Ken and Gorgeous George combined.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Chris Williamson 'helping' on Sky News. FFS.
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MikeL said:
One potentially important issue is how TIG would be treated by broadcasters in a GE campaign.
With no track record in any past elections they may not be given any significant coverage / not included in debates.
However they might be included based on opinion poll ratings.
I don't think it's clear cut - and it would be very important.
In late 1980 the Liberals were polling 11-12%Stereotomy said:
That must be why the Lib Dems keep getting such great results._Anazina_ said:
They are sensible, sane, liberal and pro-business. Which for a large proportion of the electorate seems like sheer Nirvana compared to the anti-commerce, bigoted clowns we have controlling the two major parties.TGOHF said:
You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?_Anazina_ said:
Wrong. However much you wish it were true.TGOHF said:https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/
"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."
Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?0 -
Williamson:
False flag claims of anti-semitism
MSM biased against Jeremy
Stop making stuff up
Luciana Berger should have rung Jez because it 'takes two to tango'
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The dems love their old white menNigelb said:The first stage Bern is quite impressive:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/20/bernie-sanders-2020-presidential-campaign-fundraising0 -
I would imagine the situation for TiG maybe plays out like this,_Anazina_ said:
They are sensible, sane, liberal and pro-business. Which for a large proportion of the electorate seems like sheer Nirvana compared to the anti-commerce, bigoted clowns we have controlling the two major parties.TGOHF said:
You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?_Anazina_ said:
Wrong. However much you wish it were true.TGOHF said:https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/
"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."
Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?
1. They sign a non-compete pact with Lib Dems - but no formal alliance - otherwise the two groups are fishing in the same pond i.e. more educated, wealthier, passionately anti-Brexit voters.
2. Would expect (in general - there will always be exceptions), TiG to focus on wealthier, professional, urban areas which vote Labour but where they do not have the baggage of tuition fees that the Lib Dems do, while the Lib Dems focus on more rural, smaller / wealthier towns where they have an existing infrastructure;
3. Hard to see how this move does not mean the Conservatives more pro-Brexit. The remain faction are now weakened and will be seen as potential defectors, which increases the chances of deselection, while every Tory remainer MP that goes, strengthens the hold of the hard-line Brexiteers; Plus that poll out showing the Tories on 38 with TiG on 14 suggests the Tories' voters are more hard-line Brexit than their MPs.
4. It increases the chances of a hard-line Brexit. The Labour leadership will do everything it can to take an opposite position to the TiG and TM is now more in-hoc to the hardline factions / voters.0 -
But as these people are demanding a "people's vote" the very least they can do, as such upstanding democrats, is give the people a vote on their new arrangements...dr_spyn said:Another witless call for a by-election this time from a Tory.
https://twitter.com/Hannahjourno/status/1098204587071283200
One politics lecturer had helpfully pointed out that there were only 4 by-elections triggered by MPs crossing the political divide. Mark Reckless was the last one.
These kinds of double standards do get noticed by the electorate.0 -
Wingnut in Chief always helps...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Chris Williamson 'helping' on Sky News. FFS.
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Babbling about an alternate paranoid reality only really works if you're Donald Trump (and then only for a time), or the actual Stalin....SandyRentool said:Williamson claiming false-flag antisemitism in interview on Sky News...
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Ok. Which country or ethnic group is he blaming for this false flag operation? Shall we have a little guess...SandyRentool said:Williamson claiming false-flag antisemitism in interview on Sky News...
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Well they think Zionists worked with Hitler, so.....viewcode said:
Ok. Which country or ethnic group is he blaming for this false flag operation? Shall we have a little guess...SandyRentool said:Williamson claiming false-flag antisemitism in interview on Sky News...
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"I myself am a Mossad agent masquerading as a Labour MP..."viewcode said:
Ok. Which country or ethnic group is he blaming for this false flag operation? Shall we have a little guess...SandyRentool said:Williamson claiming false-flag antisemitism in interview on Sky News...
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But probably not quite enough to actually nominate them.Slackbladder said:
The dems love their old white menNigelb said:The first stage Bern is quite impressive:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/20/bernie-sanders-2020-presidential-campaign-fundraising0 -
Do you still think that an extension is impossible?eek said:
Everytime I said an extension was going to be impossible people on here have shot me down.Nigelb said:"British tourists travelling to continental Europe may need to pay £52 for a visa in a few weeks after Spanish demands over the status of Gibraltar again derailed Brussels’ preparations for Brexit...."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/britons-may-need-52-visa-to-visit-mainland-europe-after-brexit0 -
That'll do the Spanish tourism industry a world of good......Nigelb said:"British tourists travelling to continental Europe may need to pay £52 for a visa in a few weeks after Spanish demands over the status of Gibraltar again derailed Brussels’ preparations for Brexit...."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/britons-may-need-52-visa-to-visit-mainland-europe-after-brexit0 -
Very well orchestrated. And the fact that almost all of them were under threat of deselection is pure coincidence._Anazina_ said:
Spot on. If Tig had failed to attract Tories, Flashman and his hard-right brethren would be falling over themselves to tell us that it was a failed project because... it had failed to attract Tories.IanB2 said:
It always was going to be a new party, if it gathered speed. What could be more anti-Corbyn than that?TGOHF said:https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/
"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."
The desire is for something new in politics and for a different sort of politics. Looking (only) like a load of Labour retreads was a handicap, not an advantage.
Looks very well orchestrated so far and has attracted several intelligent, switched on people from both sides of the House.0 -
What more could a new centrist grouping wish for than an ERG-led Tory party and a Corbyn-led Labour Party?dixiedean said:What does this mean for next Con leader? Loss of 3 votes out of 317, surely increases the chances of ERG getting a candidate into the final 2.
And from there would be a heavy favourite.0 -
In the long term yes, but in the short term what matters is TMay, and TMay's whole thing seems to be running around frantically greasing whichever wheel is squeakiest.TheKitchenCabinet said:
3. Hard to see how this move does not mean the Conservatives more pro-Brexit. The remain faction are now weakened and will be seen as potential defectors, which increases the chances of deselection, while every Tory remainer MP that goes, strengthens the hold of the hard-line Brexiteers; Plus that poll out showing the Tories on 38 with TiG on 14 suggests the Tories' voters are more hard-line Brexit than their MPs.0 -
"false-flag antisemitism"
oh.
oh wow.0 -
It's not clear cut, though I imagine the media companies will want to appear fair and avoid any unnecessary controversy, so I'd guess TIG (or any alliance within which TIG sit) would be treated on the basis of:MikeL said:One potentially important issue is how TIG would be treated by broadcasters in a GE campaign.
With no track record in any past elections they may not be given any significant coverage / not included in debates.
However they might be included based on opinion poll ratings.
I don't think it's clear cut - and it would be very important.
- The number of candidates nominated;
- Opinion poll scores;
- Performance in other elections: local elections, devolved administrations, by-elections etc.
Though I wouldn't be surprised if some effective discount was applied on the basis of a lack of history and hence an inability to prove that they can cut it on the biggest stage.0 -
On that last, Labour (even ex-TIG Labour) simply can't afford to turn its back on most of its members and its youthful electoral support like that.TheKitchenCabinet said:
I would imagine the situation for TiG maybe plays out like this,_Anazina_ said:
They are sensible, sane, liberal and pro-business. Which for a large proportion of the electorate seems like sheer Nirvana compared to the anti-commerce, bigoted clowns we have controlling the two major parties.TGOHF said:
You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?_Anazina_ said:
Wrong. However much you wish it were true.TGOHF said:https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/
"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."
Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?
1. They sign a non-compete pact with Lib Dems - but no formal alliance - otherwise the two groups are fishing in the same pond i.e. more educated, wealthier, passionately anti-Brexit voters.
2. Would expect (in general - there will always be exceptions), TiG to focus on wealthier, professional, urban areas which vote Labour but where they do not have the baggage of tuition fees that the Lib Dems do, while the Lib Dems focus on more rural, smaller / wealthier towns where they have an existing infrastructure;
3. Hard to see how this move does not mean the Conservatives more pro-Brexit. The remain faction are now weakened and will be seen as potential defectors, which increases the chances of deselection, while every Tory remainer MP that goes, strengthens the hold of the hard-line Brexiteers; Plus that poll out showing the Tories on 38 with TiG on 14 suggests the Tories' voters are more hard-line Brexit than their MPs.
4. It increases the chances of a hard-line Brexit. The Labour leadership will do everything it can to take an opposite position to the TiG and TM is now more in-hoc to the hardline factions / voters.0 -
What levels does TIG need to reach in the polls before BoZo thinks defecting might be his best chance of becoming PM?0
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Every time you think they can't get worse, they get worse...Slackbladder said:
Well they think Zionists worked with Hitler, so.....viewcode said:
Ok. Which country or ethnic group is he blaming for this false flag operation? Shall we have a little guess...SandyRentool said:Williamson claiming false-flag antisemitism in interview on Sky News...
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Out of date. Polls without TIG are irrelevant now. And that one also came before news of Tory defectors to TIG.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Todays you gov is
Cons 41
Lab 33
Libs 10
Ukip 4
Green 4
Gives a con majority of 32
Also, it's important to include the full polling with DKs in the mix.
Today's You Gov poll in the format that matters:
Don't Know 31
Con 22
Lab 15
TIG 9
LD 4
SNP 3
Other 7
Won't Vote 10
The huge number of DKs illustrates I think why May would be utterly barking to call an election now.0 -
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"I was born Labour and I thought I'd die Labour" - this sort of thing puts me right off. Makes it sound like a religion.AlastairMeeks said:
They seem to. It all looks strikingly coordinated so far, as does a lot of the media commentary coming from pre-defectors, eg:Richard_Nabavi said:I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/10982038775376527360 -
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Corby and May return the compliment by not mentioning his group at all...
https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/10981954253105315840 -
1983 surely provides the precedent.david_herdson said:
It's not clear cut, though I imagine the media companies will want to appear fair and avoid any unnecessary controversy, so I'd guess TIG (or any alliance within which TIG sit) would be treated on the basis of:MikeL said:One potentially important issue is how TIG would be treated by broadcasters in a GE campaign.
With no track record in any past elections they may not be given any significant coverage / not included in debates.
However they might be included based on opinion poll ratings.
I don't think it's clear cut - and it would be very important.
- The number of candidates nominated;
- Opinion poll scores;
- Performance in other elections: local elections, devolved administrations, by-elections etc.
Though I wouldn't be surprised if some effective discount was applied on the basis of a lack of history and hence an inability to prove that they can cut it on the biggest stage.0 -
How about a different approach. 2nd referendum and GE on the same day (set for 6 months or so)?kinabalu said:
Yes - I think the GE is coming unless the deal surprises by sailing through. And perhaps even then as a consolidation play.Barnesian said:Latest EMA using today's YouGov. (I'm ignoring TIG polls for the moment as hard to interpret.)
Con 39.0% Lab 36.4% LD 9.6%
Con 317
Lab 254
LD 17
SNP 40
PC 3
Grn 1
Con 9 short of overall majority (very similar to now)
Con+DUP 327
Lab+others 315
Which will she choose - an early GE on her deal, or her deal with referendum on it? I think the former.
BIG move in that direction on betfair too. GE in 2019 much shorter now than it was a couple of days ago.
That could be more appealing for TM0 -
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Maybe Tezza and Jezza have already done a deal where-by Labour will ultimately vote for TM's deal in return for a general election this Summer?Scott_P said:
Nothing committed to paper. But with a nod and a wink?
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Though the implication of her comment is that she's reassessing that irrational faith.Cookie said:
"I was born Labour and I thought I'd die Labour" - this sort of thing puts me right off. Makes it sound like a religion.AlastairMeeks said:
They seem to. It all looks strikingly coordinated so far, as does a lot of the media commentary coming from pre-defectors, eg:Richard_Nabavi said:I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/10982038775376527360 -
I agree. Our 2 party system only works well on the premise that both of the parties are 'broad churches', i.e. are themselves coalitions, Labour of socialists and social democrats, the Conservatives of baby-eaters and those merely in favour of it.IanB2 said:It always was going to be a new party, if it gathered speed. What could be more anti-Corbyn than that?
The desire is for something new in politics and for a different sort of politics. Looking (only) like a load of Labour retreads was a handicap, not an advantage.
Once these broad churches burn down and are replaced with little thin churches, as has happened with Labour and seems to be in the process of happening with the Cons, then the situation which ensues is not, for any length of time, tenable.
So, yes, for Chuka, the trousers are tight, the time is right, the future's bright.0 -
The Tories are now the Brexit Party: there is no other destination.edmundintokyo said:
In the long term yes, but in the short term what matters is TMay, and TMay's whole thing seems to be running around frantically greasing whichever wheel is squeakiest.TheKitchenCabinet said:
3. Hard to see how this move does not mean the Conservatives more pro-Brexit. The remain faction are now weakened and will be seen as potential defectors, which increases the chances of deselection, while every Tory remainer MP that goes, strengthens the hold of the hard-line Brexiteers; Plus that poll out showing the Tories on 38 with TiG on 14 suggests the Tories' voters are more hard-line Brexit than their MPs.
Don't feel sorry for them. It is what most of them have always wanted.0 -
Is The Independent Unionist Group going to get its first recruit?Scott_P said:0 -
TIG press conference now live on BBC 24, three Tory defectors take the stand0
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I'm sure when Chuka becomes PM he'll have far better things to do than wasting his time having to grace Parliament with his presence...Nigelb said:Corby and May return the compliment by not mentioning his group at all...
https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/10981954253105315840 -
I think Heidi Allen should have joined the LDs to start with.0
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They've got a real issue in that their top targets would be identical to the Lib Dems, and likely places Labour is miles and miles out in front (Bristol West). Meanwhile they won't be taking Tory seats in Brexitshire any time soon.GIN1138 said:
If we follow the same route as the SDP we might see TIG with a 10-15% lead by Christmas?Scott_P said:What levels does TIG need to reach in the polls before BoZo thinks defecting might be his best chance of becoming PM?
0 -
Allen is very impressive.-1
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Heidi Allen is easier on the eye than the ear.
All about her it would seem - 'my country needs me'.0 -
Another appalling poll for the Brexit deal from YouGov. Conservative voters prefer Remain to the deal.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tkwnu2z8xr/Internal_190207_BrexitDraftDeal_w.pdf0 -
Well exactly.OllyT said:
What more could a new centrist grouping wish for than an ERG-led Tory party and a Corbyn-led Labour Party?dixiedean said:What does this mean for next Con leader? Loss of 3 votes out of 317, surely increases the chances of ERG getting a candidate into the final 2.
And from there would be a heavy favourite.0 -
Heidi Allen very strong here.0
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Heidi Alllen VERY impressive. I'd vote for her!
She'll be an excellent leader for this new group
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Ha. She just used the actual Lib Dem slogan: "The United Kingdom deserves better"!0
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He's right though. PMQs really is a load of shit.GIN1138 said:
I'm sure when Chuka becomes PM he'll have far better things to do than wasting his time having to grace Parliament with his presence...Nigelb said:Corby and May return the compliment by not mentioning his group at all...
https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/10981954253105315840 -
Damn Heidi Allen is doing well....
This is potentially transformative stuff..0 -
The Independents against Independence represent everything people didn’t like about politics 2000-2016. Since then we have had millions of people engaged by Leave and Corbyn. Their reaction seems to be to refuse to accept the public could be right.0
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Maybe it seems the giant majority commanded by Blair is now being seen as the only way to get the centre back in power. Moderate Tories and Blairite Labour joining forces. Possibly a sensible leader off of a giant majority.viewcode said:
Pause.Richard_Nabavi said:I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?
Thinks.
Do you know, that's a bloody good question. Well done you. I have no idea...0 -
Phillip Lee disagrees with "timing". Worried that Party is becoming UKIP lite. Won't be "only him" going if it continues. Cites bullying by Associations.0
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Heidi Allen: "If Brexit was a pained clarion call for change, then we hear it."
Good line.0 -
Good speech by Allen. Those who consider her mere window dressing are missing a trick.0
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That's not really what it said, is it? The 43% said leaving the EU on May's deal would be worse than Remaining. You can be a hard-line Brexiteer and answer yes to that. It is what Steve Baker was implying the other day when he retweeted the Telegraph article about suggesting we stay in and wreck the EU from the inside rather than leave on May's deal.williamglenn said:Another appalling poll for the Brexit deal from YouGov. Conservative voters prefer Remain to the deal.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tkwnu2z8xr/Internal_190207_BrexitDraftDeal_w.pdf
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Would it be fair to name them the Moderate Independent Liberal Faction?0
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All of these 'working class leave labour diehards', at what point will they stop? Local factory shuts down, left wing opposition to Tory rule collapses, soon we will just be left with the blokes from Monty Python explaining how they lived off a handful of gravel but still bloody well back BREXIT.0
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It's certainly an 'attractive' party in parts.dixiedean said:Would it be fair to name them the Moderate Independent Liberal Faction?
0 -
Sarah Wollaston also good.
The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.0 -
It doesn't matter why they prefer Remain, only that they do.TheKitchenCabinet said:
That's not really what it said, is it? The 43% said leaving the EU on May's deal would be worse than Remaining. You can be a hard-line Brexiteer and answer yes to that. It is what Steve Baker was implying the other day when he retweeted the Telegraph article about suggesting we stay in and wreck the EU from the inside rather than leave on May's deal.williamglenn said:Another appalling poll for the Brexit deal from YouGov. Conservative voters prefer Remain to the deal.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tkwnu2z8xr/Internal_190207_BrexitDraftDeal_w.pdf0 -
If you are right the public will reject them. If you are wrong then they won't. That's democracy.DonTsInferno_ said:The Independents against Independence represent everything people didn’t like about politics 2000-2016. Since then we have had millions of people engaged by Leave and Corbyn. Their reaction seems to be to refuse to accept the public could be right.
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Disappointed by the turncoats, but I don't see what they have in common with the Tiggers other than Brexit. Once it has a resolution, one way or another, I don't see how these three can stay in a group with those eight (or more) from Labour.
Outside of Europe, Allen and Soubry are pretty Conservative and agree with the party on almost every other issue.
Hopefully the PM gets the deal through in the next few weeks and we can finally see the back of the party split on Europe.0 -
Yep, they seem like proper grown up rather than golf club boorish manchilds.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Sarah Wollaston also good.
The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.0 -
They really look the part, this gang.Slackbladder said:Damn Heidi Allen is doing well....
This is potentially transformative stuff..
No wonder the PB Tories and PB Corbynites are frit.0 -
But for a some people, party politics is exactly that and why leaving is such a massive decision.Cookie said:
"I was born Labour and I thought I'd die Labour" - this sort of thing puts me right off. Makes it sound like a religion.AlastairMeeks said:
They seem to. It all looks strikingly coordinated so far, as does a lot of the media commentary coming from pre-defectors, eg:Richard_Nabavi said:I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/10982038775376527360 -
Yet they all refuse to call by elections and allow their constituents to have their say on their decision?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Sarah Wollaston also good.
The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.0
