politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now three CON MPs defect to the TIGers

BannedInParis said:

nico67 said:

The YouGov normal poll with Labour only down one is good considering the wall to wall coverage of the Labour resignations . Now that some Tories have jumped ship we best wait to see whether that effects things . But its clear Labour will be hit badly especially in urban areas if they don’t support a second vote .

what on earth would a bad poll look like?

GreenHeron said:

Surely Theresa May must be thinking of calling a GE?

Stereotomy said:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1098196089755324418

nico67 said:

BannedInParis said:

nico67 said:

The YouGov normal poll with Labour only down one is good considering the wall to wall coverage of the Labour resignations . Now that some Tories have jumped ship we best wait to see whether that effects things . But its clear Labour will be hit badly especially in urban areas if they don’t support a second vote .

what on earth would a bad poll look like?

I’m talking merely regarding the one point loss compared to the last poll.

YBarddCwsc said:

Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

Richard_Nabavi said:

AndyJS said:

Richard Harrington sitting on the government benches. Rumours of his defection were obviously exaggerated.

After the next iteration of the meaningful vote, I think, unless things change. He's very loyal, a real party man and has been a supporter of Theresa May, but he won't remain in a government taking us to a crash-out no-deal.

_Anazina_ said:

Danny565 said:

Most telling thing is TIG would apparently take 11% of the Leave vote (compared to 18% of the Remain vote).

Hands up who thinks that would withstand an election campaign where they're banging on about Brexit nonstop.

You really are rattled by the Tiggers aren't you?

CarlottaVance said:

A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:

A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893

Close.

The key thing is they have left over policy. This is likely to be a temporary problem and it's not out of the question they might return should it be fixed.

There isn't the nasty personal element we see with Labour, or the takeover of the party by the nutters (yet!) which makes it impossible to see any Labour Tiggers rejoining.

YBarddCwsc said:

Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

dyedwoolie said:

Can't happen until Brexit, would be suicide to do it now and basically force no deal

El_Capitano said:

TIG website right now:

"The Independent Group. We will be back shortly after some planned maintenance"

CarlottaVance said:

Rather different response to the Tory resignations from some to the Labour ones:

https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1098194499430502407

TGOHF said:

Stereotomy said:

TGOHF said:

Brom said:

A lot can change in politics but surely the Tories will lead every poll for the next few weeks now.

Nah - loads of Con voters are going to switch to TIG to follow the wet witches of the East.

In the short term I'd be very surprised if there were more Con -> TIG switchers than Lab -> TIG

or medium, long ,very long.

Labour TIGgers are brave refugees fleeing the jackboot of Corbynism.

Tory Tiggers are flouncing about the EU gravy train no longer stopping at their station.

Danny565 said:

Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

blueblue said:

Er, pardon me for being dense, but what on earth is the value of UK-wide polling on TIG when by definition they exist only in the seats they currently hold?

Are they planning to field hundreds of candidates across the UK? How long will it take them to be selected? On what criteria?

Much as I would like Labour to be crushed, I don't think the result of a GE in the short to medium term would be any different than what the pre-TIG polling indicated.

Andrew said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?

The government has voted for a deal. It's the Labour/ERG coalition who are voting for no deal.

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

SDP fought P'boro in 1983 and got 23% from a previous Liberal 10%

What was the direct equivalent of Brexit back in '83?

Falklands War?

Didn't that turn out well?

Richard_Tyndall said:

Stark_Dawning said:

CarlottaVance said:

A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893

Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?

Soubry's election literature explicitly stated she accepted Brexit and would respect the referendum result.

TGOHF said:

https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

Stereotomy said:

blueblue said:

Er, pardon me for being dense, but what on earth is the value of UK-wide polling on TIG when by definition they exist only in the seats they currently hold?

Are they planning to field hundreds of candidates across the UK? How long will it take them to be selected? On what criteria?

Much as I would like Labour to be crushed, I don't think the result of a GE in the short to medium term would be any different than what the pre-TIG polling indicated.

If the next GE is in 2022, they could certainly field a lot of candidates by then. And potentially direct people who want to vote for them to vote LD in other constituencies.

TGOHF said:

https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

Richard_Nabavi said:

I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

TGOHF said:

https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

nico67 said:

The YouGov poll puts a lot of pressure on Labour to support a second vote .

Richard_Tyndall said:

Andrew said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?

The government has voted for a deal. It's the Labour/ERG coalition who are voting for no deal.

And Soubry has voted against the Deal.

blueblue said:

Er, pardon me for being dense, but what on earth is the value of UK-wide polling on TIG when by definition they exist only in the seats they currently hold?

Are they planning to field hundreds of candidates across the UK? How long will it take them to be selected? On what criteria?

Much as I would like Labour to be crushed, I don't think the result of a GE in the short to medium term would be any different than what the pre-TIG polling indicated.

_Anazina_ said:

TGOHF said:

https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

Wrong. However much you wish it were true.

_Anazina_ said:

TGOHF said:

https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

Wrong. However much you wish it were true.

Sean_F said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Andrew said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?

The government has voted for a deal. It's the Labour/ERG coalition who are voting for no deal.

And Soubry has voted against the Deal.

As have Allen and Wollaston. All three are opposed to any type of Brexit.

TGOHF said:

Stereotomy said:

TGOHF said:

Brom said:

A lot can change in politics but surely the Tories will lead every poll for the next few weeks now.

Nah - loads of Con voters are going to switch to TIG to follow the wet witches of the East.

In the short term I'd be very surprised if there were more Con -> TIG switchers than Lab -> TIG

or medium, long ,very long.

Labour TIGgers are brave refugees fleeing the jackboot of Corbynism.

Tory Tiggers are flouncing about the EU gravy train no longer stopping at their station.

Andrew said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Massive, massive, massive gamble.

*snip good points*

Indeed. But if the alternative is crash brexit, nasty recession, government possibly falls and Corbyn gets in ....... maybe a gamble is needed.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

SDP fought P'boro in 1983 and got 23% from a previous Liberal 10%

What was the direct equivalent of Brexit back in '83?

IanB2 said:

TGOHF said:

https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

"Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

It always was going to be a new party, if it gathered speed. What could be more anti-Corbyn than that?

The desire is for something new in politics and for a different sort of politics. Looking (only) like a load of Labour retreads was a handicap, not an advantage.