politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now three CON MPs defect to the TIGers

AndyJS said:

Stereotomy said:

So has anyone discussed the scenario where tiggers split the Tory vote worse than the Labour vote and put Corbyn into number 10?

Very unlikely because most Tories were Leave supporters.

Not convinced we're going to be running on Brexit in 2022. It's a different matter if we have an early election.

Corbyn: I see no ships...

REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11

LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL

AndyJS said:

Stereotomy said:

So has anyone discussed the scenario where tiggers split the Tory vote worse than the Labour vote and put Corbyn into number 10?

Very unlikely because most Tories were Leave supporters.

There are enough who aren't to keep things interesting.

All the Labour loyalists seem to be wearing a badge !

Slackbladder said:

REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11

LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL

Blimey.

Oh God. May and Corbyn are just linked in a death spiral over Brexit.

Slackbladder said:

REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11

LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL

How much of "Other" is Ukip?

She can't look him in the eye.

AndyJS said:

Stereotomy said:

So has anyone discussed the scenario where tiggers split the Tory vote worse than the Labour vote and put Corbyn into number 10?

Very unlikely because most Tories were Leave supporters.

It depends how leave-y Labour are perceived as; they may still be able to sit on the fence in that way oppositions can do and governments can’t. There’s also evidence that Brexit is not that salient as an issue for many Labour voters (maybe that’s Lab Leavers not Lab remainers though). If the TigDems look a bit Cameroony you can see them repelling the left-wing vote while attracting less right-wing Tories.

Theresa and Jezza not having a very good outing...

I think you'd say this is fairly subdued.

Sodium said:

Slackbladder said:

REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11

LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL

A party a couple of days old polling double the Lib Dem score.

You've got to laugh haven't you?

'Twas the same in the 1980s. People like novelty. The good news from the LibDem perspective is that TIG isn't pushing them down that much and has pulled a lot of support across from Labour. Will be interesting to see if today's news dents the Tory score.

The two main parties in a two party system have spent the last couple of years trying to bring the two party system to an end by their actions.

The peril for both of them now is what calculations other MPs start to make once they start to see some polling on this and for Labour in particular the search for purity leads to repeated shootings in the foot. After JC responded yesterday the only surprise was only one of theirs went last night.

Drinks all round!

Theresa May surprisingly confident at PMQs.

Loads of Oppo on the order paper, so no opportunity for Bercow to call TIGers.

EDIT: theoretically...

BannedInParis said:

Slackbladder said:

REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11

LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL

Labour sub 30.

Yeah, no one saw that coming at any time.

Heading toward Scottish Labour polling. All going well.

Slackbladder said:

REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11

LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL

Wow, that would be a Tory landslide beyond anything we've ever seen. Nice one Chuka!

SunnyJim said:

Slackbladder said:

REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11

LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL

The LD talking head on Skynews earlier said there was no chance of her party folding in to TIG.

I have my doubts lol.

There isn't much particularly liberal about the new party, although I am sure the LDs would have taken in Allen and probably Chuka and Wollaston.

The better hope for the LibDems is that a one-election deal delivers PR and allows them a fuller role in politics nationwide thereafter.

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

AndyJS said:

Stereotomy said:

So has anyone discussed the scenario where tiggers split the Tory vote worse than the Labour vote and put Corbyn into number 10?

Very unlikely because most Tories were Leave supporters.

There are enough who aren't to keep things interesting.

About one third of the voters are right wing, and pro-Brexit, so that's probably the Conservatives' floor.

Farage's floor*

May finally using the Hatton ammunition. Open goal.

Slackbladder said:

REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11

LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL

12 Smiling Theresa Mays.......

_Anazina_ said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Slackbladder said:

REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11

LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL

Wow

At this rate of growth, they'll be leading the polls within a couple of weeks.

In 1981 it took ten months from Limehouse Declaration to leading the polls.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am not getting excited by this initial polling...at the moment they have no policies, other than I think most people know them as Remain. Other than that, I am sure there are lots of people just pinning what they think they will be and telling polling company accordingly.

Well there's two questions: Can tiggers survive as an electoral force, and what relative effect will they have on the big two in the next election? I'd say the Yougov poll is pretty much meaningless on the first question, but a cause for extremely cautious optimism for Tories on the second question

Not at all surprised by Soubry or Wollaston.

But, um, asking for a friend, would it raise too many PB eyebrows if my, er, friend feels disappointment at Heidi Allen resigning, if only because my, er, friend has taken quite a fancy to her?

Remember, I'm asking for my, er, friend!

The YouGov poll puts a lot of pressure on Labour to support a second vote .

Baxtered for fun: Con 363, Lab 164, LD 16, Tiggies 41 (wot).


Of course, nobody will have the faintest idea of how to model Tiggie figures.

AndyJS said:

Richard Harrington sitting on the government benches. Rumours of his defection were obviously exaggerated.

After the next iteration of the meaningful vote, I think, unless things change. He's very loyal, a real party man and has been a supporter of Theresa May, but he won't remain in a government taking us to a crash-out no-deal.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am not getting excited by this initial polling...at the moment they have no policies, other than I think most people know them as Remain. Other than that, I am sure there are lots of people just pinning what they think they will be and telling polling company accordingly.

As it happens, I would not be surprised if at some point, TIG led in a poll or two, but it's likely to be froth.

SunnyJim said:

It makes sense for TIG to leave themselves as a blank sheet for as long as possible to allow voters to project on to them.

If they can keep the momentum going in both defections and polling then they can build a critical mass.

I have my doubts though about the driving premise of the whole exercise in terms of its longevity.

Exactly.

Other than a position on Brexit the Tiggers don't really need any clear policies, not yet anyway. All they need to appear to be is something different from two main parties who're not making any progress on anything and the fact that they're constituted of MPs previously from both those parties only helps.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1098195868744851458

tlg86 said:

nico67 said:

The YouGov poll puts a lot of pressure on Labour to support a second vote .

It really doesn't.

It certainly doesn't put any pressure on May to pursue that course !

OllyT said:

I think you are overestimating the attention the average voter pays to the details.

How could anyone who backed Blair's New Labour back the snti-semetic, pro Brexit Corbyn sh1tshow? Yet many do. Politics is not rational

Of course it isn't. Because its raw material - people - are not rational.

Especially other people.

MarqueeMark said:

Slackbladder said:

REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11

LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL

12 Smiling Theresa Mays.......

If that lasts a while, the incentive for Labour to get a leader with whom TIG and the LibDems (and probably SNP and Plaid) could do business will start to grow.

Not that I expect Labour to revolt again any time soon.

Worth remembering the SDP polled 51% after Crosby
However I think the Tiggers will poll in the 20s at an election. Labour are finished.

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1098195868744851458

TIG gets as many votes from the LDs as from Labour.

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1098196101042196482

Corbyn hauls Labour into another lead...not.

Even that one ...

OK, even with TIG, sub-30 is more than achievable.

Get Galloway back in, set OJ and Bastani up to 11, stand back and you'll have an ideologically pure 28 % in no time.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1098195868744851458 Don't know making gains.

david_kendrick1 said:

The way Brexit is being handled, we'll move from just inside the tent with opt-outs, to just outside the tent with opt-ins.

Of course there will be administrative and clerking problems.

But in 2022, how many extra votes will the boast 'I'm an ardent remainer' be worth? The LDs excellent on-the-ground operation will be worth more. But---and this is the point--it is unlikely to be any better than last time.

It's no less absurd to have Brexit as a political dividing line than anything else. In Ireland, for a long time political divisions were based on the respective parties' views on events in 1916-1924.

For a long time we were content to grumpily co-exist with different views on our membership of a trading bloc while perceiving idiocy and/or evil in those who differed in their view of whether the state should spend 38% or 42% of GDP. Perceiving idiocy and/or evil with those of a differing view about membership of a rrade association is no more or less ridiculous a thing to fall out about.
Everyone's views are shades of grey. But humans are regrettably hard-wired to perceive us and thems, and to find reasons to despise thems.

solarflare said:

SunnyJim said:

It makes sense for TIG to leave themselves as a blank sheet for as long as possible to allow voters to project on to them.

If they can keep the momentum going in both defections and polling then they can build a critical mass.

I have my doubts though about the driving premise of the whole exercise in terms of its longevity.

Exactly.

Other than a position on Brexit the Tiggers don't really need any clear policies, not yet anyway. All they need to appear to be is something different from two main parties who're not making any progress on anything and the fact that they're constituted of MPs previously from both those parties only helps.

Spot on. And that is why their strategy is exactly right.

Surely Theresa May must be thinking of calling a GE?

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1098195868744851458 Don't know making gains.

Labour need to focus on that one guy who switches from the Tories when TIG is included

SunnyJim said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Not at all surprised by Soubry or Wollaston.

But, um, asking for a friend, would it raise too many PB eyebrows if my, er, friend feels disappointment at Heidi Allen resigning, if only because my, er, friend has taken quite a fancy to her?

Remember, I'm asking for my, er, friend!

I've found myself thinking similar about Luciana Berger.

Could be worse I suppose, it could be Anna Soubry.

Liz Kendall is also a possible Tigger. Liz, Heidi and Luciana all in the same party?

Harris_Tweed said:

MarqueeMark said:

Slackbladder said:

REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11

LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL

12 Smiling Theresa Mays.......

If that lasts a while, the incentive for Labour to get a leader with whom TIG and the LibDems (and probably SNP and Plaid) could do business will start to grow.

Not that I expect Labour to revolt again any time soon.

Quite. It's not gonna happen. Imagine (say) Keir Starmer becoming Labour leader. How would the vocal Momentum-Owen Jones-Novara Media faction take that? The news would be little else but Labour splits.

Labour has left the moderates and there's no going back. The TIGgers have finally realised it; some of their former colleagues are a bit slower on the uptake.

Danny565 said:

Most telling thing is TIG would apparently take 11% of the Leave vote (compared to 18% of the Remain vote).

Hands up who thinks that would withstand an election campaign where they're banging on about Brexit nonstop.

Unless that's the 11% who now realise their mistake?

ydoethur said:

dyedwoolie said:

However I think the Tiggers will poll in the 20s at an election. Labour are finished.

So did the SDP, but it didn't finish Labour.

Yeah but 1983 labour weren't this shower and didn't go in on 240 seats

A lot can change in politics but surely the Tories will lead every poll for the next few weeks now.

_Anazina_ said:

SunnyJim said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Not at all surprised by Soubry or Wollaston.

But, um, asking for a friend, would it raise too many PB eyebrows if my, er, friend feels disappointment at Heidi Allen resigning, if only because my, er, friend has taken quite a fancy to her?

Remember, I'm asking for my, er, friend!

I've found myself thinking similar about Luciana Berger.

Could be worse I suppose, it could be Anna Soubry.

Liz Kendall is also a possible Tigger. Liz, Heidi and Luciana all in the same party?

Polling for 18-20 year old males...

TIG 110%

Danny565 said:

Most telling thing is TIG would apparently take 11% of the Leave vote (compared to 18% of the Remain vote).

Hands up who thinks that would withstand an election campaign where they're banging on about Brexit nonstop.

You really are rattled by the Tiggers aren't you?

OllyT said:

Barnesian said:

Danny565 said:

Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

They can't. The only thing that holds them together is opposition to Brexit (and Corbyn). That's it.

I think you are overestimating the attention the average voter pays to the details.

How could anyone who backed Blair's New Labour back the snti-semetic, pro Brexit Corbyn sh1tshow? Yet many do. Politics is not rational

But that's the other way round (when you have the benefit of inheriting the name badge from one of the big two). Admittedly, TIG has the benefit of novelty.. but there's no block vote which becomes yours to lose.