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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now three CON MPs defect to the TIGers

The shifting sands of politics shift again. This must have not been an easy decision either. But it says a lot that some of the (ex) Tory MPs I respect the most have now left. https://t.co/xJmW5pq6NF
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Be interesting to see if some Labour MPs cross over later today.
Tory + DUP = 324
Others (excl. Speaker) = 325
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition
Labour about to lose control of Brighton.
(Hope you are listening Jeremy)
Unless Soubry has done a complete U-turn on all her views from the last 9 years (bar Brexit), what programme would she be willing to commit to that would appeal to Labour voters?
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1098181665304788993
Galloway has reapplied to join Labour.
As I predicted a very gracious letter from TM to the three defectors and as Sky has just said, so much in contrast to Corbyn's attitude to his defectors
https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1098183355655430146
Predictable, but forgot warmongering running dogs.
There is a precedent.
Sharon Atkin (PPC for Nottingham East) was expelled for calling the Labour Party racist. By Neil Kinnock.
Numbers games.
3 election wins
2 regional wars.
However it's a bit better than that as:
- Lady Hermon voting for the Govt in VONC - takes it back up to 9.
- Three other Independents (non TIG) abstained in last VONC - so back up to 12 if they do the same again.
- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.
And very likely more will follow.
How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?
In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.
There seem to be four groupings:
Left, Leave Corbyn's Labour
Left Remain SNP, LDs, PC, Green
Right Leave May's Tories
Right Remain The TIG group
The deckchairs are being re arranged once more.
No closer to a Brexit decision.
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1098180822065180672
But we have been here before, for those as old as me.
Most people didn't know Theresa May had cut police numbers (in fact, I daresay quite a few people didn't even know she was previously Home Secretary) until Labour/Momentum started pushing that video of her telling the police they were "crying wolf" in the last few days of the 2017 election...
At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...
Once the UK exits (or remains) it will come apart in double quick time.
I thought Nicky had been cast out of the gang for being a Judas and working with JRM on Malthouse Compromise?
Alabama newspaper editor calls on KKK to lynch Democrats
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-47295551
Do you see the issues this may cause with a few of their target voters?
Unfortunately (from the TIG viewpoint) I suspect the Tories are too pragmatic and power grubbing to allow that to happen. They will not choose a headbanger to replace TM. In which case we might be SDP Liberal Alliance all over again and the effect will be to hard-code the Tory Party into government for the foreseeable future.
But then - wild card - there is Farage's new reactionary populist party potentially surging to the right of the Tories. That could make it all very different this time.
Gosh, who knows. Really interesting time to be alive.
I think that means that the other opposition parties might well refuse to back a VONC, as it would effectively be a vote for No Deal. I don't think it works in Corbyn's favour.
Brexit in 899 hours.
https://twitter.com/John2Win/status/1098185459317071873
Of course there will be administrative and clerking problems.
But in 2022, how many extra votes will the boast 'I'm an ardent remainer' be worth? The LDs excellent on-the-ground operation will be worth more. But---and this is the point--it is unlikely to be any better than last time.