politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now three CON MPs defect to the TIGers

first.

It is incredible to hear labour MPs like Mcdonagh on sky now...opening talking about labour becoming a racist stalinist party. And challenging jezza to stop this.

Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

Danny565 said:

Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

Labour in 2017 put together a manifesto their MPs managed to stand on...!

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1098181896507318274

https://twitter.com/BBCHelenCatt/status/1098172731001061376

Labour about to lose control of Brighton.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Danny565 said:

Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

Labour in 2017 put together a manifesto their MPs managed to stand on...!

But my question was about voters, not about MPs.

Unless Soubry has done a complete U-turn on all her views from the last 9 years (bar Brexit), what programme would she be willing to commit to that would appeal to Labour voters?

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

Respectful letter from May. What any sane leader would put out in the circumstances.

Philip_Thompson said:

AndyJS said:

Composition of House of Commons:

Tory + DUP = 324
Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

Others (exc Speaker, exc Sinn Fein) =318

Before it didn't matter if Sinn Fein turned up. Now it would do.

dr_spyn said:

A rat is tying to get back on board a sinking ship?

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1098181665304788993

Galloway has reapplied to join Labour.

It’s all going perfectly for jezza...the non-believers are jumping ship and the far left strengthing their grip on the party.

TIG (assuming you count the three ex-Tories who say they'll sit "alongside" TIG, rather than outright joining them), is now bigger than the DUP, and are only 2 MPs off being larger than the Lib Dems (or 1 MP, if that MP was previously a Lib Dem).

Sodium said:

Andrew said:

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.

Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).

Philip_Thompson said:

AndyJS said:

Composition of House of Commons:

Tory + DUP = 324
Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

Others (exc Speaker, exc Sinn Fein) =318

Others, excl Speaker, excl DepSps, excl, SF, excl vacancies, excl MPs in jail = 313.

dr_spyn said:

Continued on page 94.

https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1098183355655430146

Predictable, but forgot warmongering running dogs.

Not a good idea positioning them as the most successful Labour Party ever.

3 election wins

2 regional wars.

Andrew said:

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

Isn’t that pretty much what the two main parties have these days?

more follows

And very likely more will follow.

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

Thread header needs correcting - TIG has 11 MPs not 10 (presumably forgot Joan Ryan).

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1098186055713476608?s=21

He was spinning trying to get a people vote in yesterday’s speech.

FPT:

AlastairMeeks said:

Retweeted by Paul Masterton - there is a continuing rustling in the arras of the Remainy end of the Conservative party:

https://twitter.com/SCrabbPembs/status/1098184025817133056

The minister to watch is Richard Harrington.

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC.

I can see Corbyn calling a vote of confidence next week after the Brexit votes, if only to smoke out the position of the TIG group on these matters.

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Corbyn calling a VONC puts the (particularly ex-Labour Tiggers) in the position of "propping up the Tories" as a narrative now.

TOPPING said:

Sodium said:

TOPPING said:

Sodium said:

Andrew said:

Sodium said:

How would this new party vote in a motion of no confidence in the government?

That is if it is even considered a party in that sense.

Yeah, was wondering that. Might be they don't have anything resembling whipping, just a loose arrangement.

I think that the name Independents Group was chosen to excuse the lack of cohesiveness at the beginning so they would not all vote to force a general election before they have organised properly.

The more I think about it the more I'm wondering if they will join with the Lib Dems somehow. They need the organisation and activist base to have any chance of retaining their seats at the next election. And the Lib Dems need something, anything to try to become relevant again.

Not sure if the LibDems are not an inferior good (sorry Mike).

Maybe a combination of the two groups and rebranding is going to happen, like when the Lib Dems were formed from two different parties.

It makes no sense for two parties with very similar ideologies not to work together somehow.

True - and yes possibly. But then the onus is on the LibDems to transform (again). Not sure I see that happening.

No need for a merger, just an alliance agreement for a coupon election.

Pulpstar said:

Corbyn calling a VONC puts the (particularly ex-Labour Tiggers) in the position of "propping up the Tories" as a narrative now.

Yes, it also gives him legs to re-pursue the conference policy as a means of running down the clock should the next MV fail.

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

AlastairMeeks said:

Retweeted by Paul Masterton - there is a continuing rustling in the arras of the Remainy end of the Conservative party:

https://twitter.com/SCrabbPembs/status/1098184025817133056

The minister to watch is Richard Harrington.

Depending on the next couple of weeks, there might be a few to watch. NB:

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1098180822065180672

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1098181401491529728

May has got some fucking cheek. "Decent, moderate and patriotic". The current tory party is delivering the exact opposite of those three qualities.

dr_spyn said:

A rat is tying to get back on board a sinking ship?

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1098181665304788993

Galloway has reapplied to join Labour.

It just gets better! All they need is Philip Green and Shamina Begum and they've cracked it

david_kendrick1 said:

Heidi Allen is my MP. I'd be very surprised if she held her seat against an official Tory candidate in 2022. Sebastian Kindersley was an excellent LD candidate last time and was well beaten. I doubt that Heidi's undoubted hard work and charm will bridge the gap, standing as a 'Tigger/LD' candidate.

The LDs did very well in the locals there last year though (do you have any intel on that?) Obviously there's a long way to go with the TIG, but she looks in the best shape of any of them at present. It looks 50-50 to me.

Roger said:

dr_spyn said:

A rat is tying to get back on board a sinking ship?

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1098181665304788993

Galloway has reapplied to join Labour.

It just gets better! All they need is Philip Green and Shamina Begum and they've cracked it

No, they need David Ike for the full set.

When was the last time that Parliament had so many independents?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Danny565 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come

Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

Nobody knows how MPs vote until opposition parties start banging on about how they voted come election time.

Most people didn't know Theresa May had cut police numbers (in fact, I daresay quite a few people didn't even know she was previously Home Secretary) until Labour/Momentum started pushing that video of her telling the police they were "crying wolf" in the last few days of the 2017 election...

At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...

AndyJS said:

Composition of House of Commons:

Tory + DUP = 324
Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

Nope. Sinn Fein won't turn up, and Paul Flynn (and Fiona Onasanya) won't be in attendance at the moment. Government still have a majority of 3.

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Danny565 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come

Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

Nobody knows how MPs vote until opposition parties start banging on about how they voted come election time.

Most people didn't know Theresa May had cut police numbers (in fact, I daresay quite a few people didn't even know she was previously Home Secretary) until Labour/Momentum started pushing that video of her telling the police they were "crying wolf" in the last few days of the 2017 election...

Abstaining in a vonc is totally different kettle of fish.

TheValiant said:

AndyJS said:

Composition of House of Commons:

Tory + DUP = 324
Others (excl. Speaker) = 325

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_composition

Nope. Sinn Fein won't turn up, and Paul Flynn (and Fiona Onasanya) won't be in attendance at the moment. Government still have a majority of 3.

In Flynn's case there's no 'at the moment' about it.

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

Nicky Morgan's speedy tweet in response raises my eyebrows a little:

https://twitter.com/NickyMorgan01/status/1098178932904476672

I thought Nicky had been cast out of the gang for being a Judas and working with JRM on Malthouse Compromise?

Layla "Khaled" Moran turning it up to 11 on Sky News. It's like Baldy Old Vince is already dead.

Tories taking a very classy tone so far, really shows up the Corbyn team.

Pulpstar said:

Corbyn calling a VONC puts the (particularly ex-Labour Tiggers) in the position of "propping up the Tories" as a narrative now.

"you've called one. you failed. you've called a second. you will fail again. what's the point in you, Jeremy?"

Big_G_NorthWales said:

As I predicted a very gracious letter from TM to the three defectors and as Sky has just said, so much in contrast to Corbyn's attitude to his defectors

....Fiddling while Rome burns

_Anazina_ said:

Harris_Tweed said:

_Anazina_ said:

SandyRentool said:

_Anazina_ said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/seddonnews/status/1098165445834801153?s=21

Grim. He certainly wont be getting my vote.

Who cares? The entire mayoralty is a complete nonsense, geographically. It does NOT include Gateshead, which is effectively part of Newcastle despite some old-school parochial voices claiming otherwise.

It's a classic example of what happens when you leave devolution at the mercy of parochial sentiment. The unit should have been Greater Newcastle, both sides of the Tyne, which would have commanded a population of around one million.

Stupid.

Gateshead is not part of Newcastle. It is part of County Durham. A Mayor covering the area between Tyne and Tees would be my choice. Well, either a mayor or a Prince Bishop.

It has not been part of County Durham for more than four decades. Almost no-one under the age of 60 considers it so. Is Brixton part of Surrey?

They should have built City Hall on the southbank in Gateshead and had a proper stab at an outward-looking Metro Mayoralty, a la Greater Manchester and Greater London. Instead, they chose parochialism and inward-looking stupidity.

See also Andy Street in the West Mids, including cities which until 1974 were in Warwickshire (Brum and Cov) and Staffordshire (Wolverhampton). Plus odds and sods of historic Worcs and Shrops.

Had the WMCA only included stuff which was in Warwickshire - especially if the boundary was effectively in a city centre like Newcastle - people would have laughed.

Spot on. The North of Tyne thing should never have been allowed to happen. It is a geographical and economic nonsense, arguably worse than the disintegrated shambles they have currently!

edmundintokyo said:

Tories taking a very classy tone so far, really shows up the Corbyn team.

To be fair, they've had the opportunity to go to school on Labour's response, which has been a study text for how not to do it.

Slackbladder said:

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Danny565 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come

Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...

And the response will be. We will not tolerate Corbyn to become PM.

So they'll be saying they consider a Brexit-implementing Tory government a lesser evil than a Labour government.

Do you see the issues this may cause with a few of their target voters?

I think this could be big. Perhaps the main thing they need, the Tiggers, is for the Tory leadership to be captured by the hard right in the way that Labour's has been captured by the hard left. In that case, given a good leader for both TIG and the LDs, and if they work in tandem, I can see a new centrist grouping winning many seats at a GE. For example, if JC vs JRM were to be the choice for PM laid before the electorate, then many will bridle at that and will appreciate a serious alternative.

Unfortunately (from the TIG viewpoint) I suspect the Tories are too pragmatic and power grubbing to allow that to happen. They will not choose a headbanger to replace TM. In which case we might be SDP Liberal Alliance all over again and the effect will be to hard-code the Tory Party into government for the foreseeable future.

But then - wild card - there is Farage's new reactionary populist party potentially surging to the right of the Tories. That could make it all very different this time.

Gosh, who knows. Really interesting time to be alive.

FrancisUrquhart said:

In other news, what the actual f##k...

Alabama newspaper editor calls on KKK to lynch Democrats

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-47295551

That's normal for Alabama.

_Anazina_ said:

_Anazina_ said:

Harris_Tweed said:

_Anazina_ said:

SandyRentool said:

_Anazina_ said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/seddonnews/status/1098165445834801153?s=21

Grim. He certainly wont be getting my vote.

Who cares? The entire mayoralty is a complete nonsense, geographically. It does NOT include Gateshead, which is effectively part of Newcastle despite some old-school parochial voices claiming otherwise.

It's a classic example of what happens when you leave devolution at the mercy of parochial sentiment. The unit should have been Greater Newcastle, both sides of the Tyne, which would have commanded a population of around one million.

Stupid.

Gateshead is not part of Newcastle. It is part of County Durham. A Mayor covering the area between Tyne and Tees would be my choice. Well, either a mayor or a Prince Bishop.

It has not been part of County Durham for more than four decades. Almost no-one under the age of 60 considers it so. Is Brixton part of Surrey?

They should have built City Hall on the southbank in Gateshead and had a proper stab at an outward-looking Metro Mayoralty, a la Greater Manchester and Greater London. Instead, they chose parochialism and inward-looking stupidity.

See also Andy Street in the West Mids, including cities which until 1974 were in Warwickshire (Brum and Cov) and Staffordshire (Wolverhampton). Plus odds and sods of historic Worcs and Shrops.

Had the WMCA only included stuff which was in Warwickshire - especially if the boundary was effectively in a city centre like Newcastle - people would have laughed.

Spot on. The North of Tyne thing should never have been allowed to happen. It is a geographical and economic nonsense, arguably worse than the disintegrated shambles they have currently!

Particularly as I live south of Tyne. And am included. It is the historic county of Northumberland. Gateshead is similar to Newcastle. Rothbury, Haltwhistle and Berwick aren't.

Quite a good picture:

https://twitter.com/John2Win/status/1098185459317071873

Slackbladder said:

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Danny565 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Danny565 said:

MikeL said:

- TIG (or at least some TIG) likely to abstain as well.

LOL, if they're going to abstain in a confidence vote, then that knackers their political positioning even more.

How do they appeal to either ultra-Remainers or disillusioned Labour voters at the next election, if one of their first votes is to keep a Brexit-implementing Tory government in office?!?

In fact, if anything, I would say this gives Corbyn a big incentive to call another VONC asap.

And he would lose it - indeed the lib dems will not agree to it without a second referendum

Yes, he probably would lose it - but it would mean the Tiggers screwing their chances with huge swathes of their target audience at the next election when it does eventually come

Why? Most people take little notice of how people have previous voted (or abstained) in the past.

At the next election, whenever the Tiggers start banging on about how bad Brexit is, or how they're opposed to various other things the Tories have done, the go-to response from Labour will be "but you kept them in office"...

And the response will be. We will not tolerate Corbyn to become PM.

Doesn't exactly scream confidence in their electoral abilities, does it?