politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice

That is a simple maority of 1

Not necessarily

Not sure why you say that to be honest

Abstentions. She could win 152-150, for example.

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Good luck holding that line.

52:48 is an indisputable majority.

That's the line, right?

The result will be implemented.

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ladies and gentleman, I think we've got him.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1072927832727322624

In the US, the view is increasingly that Trump is likely to end up prosecuted post-Presidency. There's tax evasion regarding the Fred Trump legacy. There's campaign finance violations. There's potentially obstruction of justice. The first of these is by far the most serious charges, and is the one that has been the subject of the least headlines.

Some of my conservative friends - engaging in a little bit of wishful thinking, perhaps - think that the best way forward would be for Trumo to stand down ahead of the 2020 election so that President Pence can preemptively pardon him. (As Ford did with Nixon.)

I thought he was also being prosecuted (or something) in state courts which are not subject to a federal pardon? At least I think that’s what I read.

Scott_P said:

rcs1000 said:

In the US, the view is increasingly that Trump is likely to end up prosecuted post-Presidency. There's tax evasion regarding the Fred Trump legacy. There's campaign finance violations. There's potentially obstruction of justice. The first of these is by far the most serious charges, and is the one that has been the subject of the least headlines.

Some of my conservative friends - engaging in a little bit of wishful thinking, perhaps - think that the best way forward would be for Trumo to stand down ahead of the 2020 election so that President Pence can preemptively pardon him. (As Ford did with Nixon.)

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1072927554716254208

I don't think President Trump being a liar is new news.

It is merely rationalised, as "well, all politicians are liars, and at least President Trump is on my side."

Which is, I think, a dangerous rabbit hole to go down.

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice

That is a simple maority of 1

Not necessarily

Not sure why you say that to be honest

Abstentions. She could win 152-150, for example.

Would that be enough :?

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice

That is a simple maority of 1

Not necessarily

Not sure why you say that to be honest

Abstentions. She could win 152-150, for example.

Anyone abstaining on this is not fit to be a conservative mp

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xQVz5iLMFk


Waste. Of. Skin.

IanB2 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

Black_Rook said:

Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out..

I have not got a scooby. Seriously. I couldn't even guess. I think she'll win less than expected and everybody will go "Oh, that was closer that I thought". But as for whether she'll win or lose: no idea.

I think that's probably right.

But unless it's really, really close (like 55:45), then I don't see her stepping down.

For the record, I think the total number of votes cast will be rather fewer than people are forecasting, and there'll be at least 20 absentions/spoilt ballots.

Seriously? You are joking? What would the point be of abstaining or spoiling a ballot paper? An appalling dereliction of duty if any Toty MP did.

Is Toty the new sensible party?

Heidi Allen?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1072942293060124675

TGOHF said:

JosiasJessop said:

TGOHF said:

If May wins the Conservatives lose.

Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.

And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.

Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.

That's a good point. However, I'd argue the same is true of one of JRM, Fox, Davis and Boris.

The Conservatives are screwed if they go down either of those roads.

Christopher Hope

@christopherhope
BREAKING Senior Brexiteer with detailed knowledge of the count says 86 Tory MPs have voted that they have no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader #toryleadership

If that's true, then that's very good for May.

AmpfieldAndy said:

rcs1000 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

Ploppikins said:

What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on

157, 158 or more she will go on regardless

You’re delusional

Nope those are the rules

Oh well done. That doesn’t mean she wouldn’t get the hint. It would be impossible for her to retain any authority or credibility if half her party have no confidence in her.

If she wins more than 60% of the vote, then I suspect she will carry on. You may not like it. (You won't.) But the reason is that there is probably nobody else in the Parliamentary Conservative Party who could garner that level of support.

I think 100+ voting against her will be enough for her Cabinet to force her resign.100+ against, and the DUP refusing to support any deal with a backstop in it and she’s got to go.

Dream on.

grabcocque said:

I am quite clear that nothing has changed.

My deal is the only deal.

I am getting on with the job of delivering Brexit.

"I don't know that you're a robot, I think you're just a suit of armour with a tape recorder in you"

Or something

IanB2 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

Black_Rook said:

Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out..

I have not got a scooby. Seriously. I couldn't even guess. I think she'll win less than expected and everybody will go "Oh, that was closer that I thought". But as for whether she'll win or lose: no idea.

I think that's probably right.

But unless it's really, really close (like 55:45), then I don't see her stepping down.

For the record, I think the total number of votes cast will be rather fewer than people are forecasting, and there'll be at least 20 absentions/spoilt ballots.

Seriously? You are joking? What would the point be of abstaining or spoiling a ballot paper? An appalling dereliction of duty if any Toty MP did.

Is Toty the new sensible party?

Perhaps it f*cking well should be!

Gallowgate said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ladies and gentleman, I think we've got him.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1072927832727322624

In the US, the view is increasingly that Trump is likely to end up prosecuted post-Presidency. There's tax evasion regarding the Fred Trump legacy. There's campaign finance violations. There's potentially obstruction of justice. The first of these is by far the most serious charges, and is the one that has been the subject of the least headlines.

Some of my conservative friends - engaging in a little bit of wishful thinking, perhaps - think that the best way forward would be for Trumo to stand down ahead of the 2020 election so that President Pence can preemptively pardon him. (As Ford did with Nixon.)

I thought he was also being prosecuted (or something) in state courts which are not subject to a federal pardon? At least I think that’s what I read.

He certainly could be prosecuted in state courts for evading state taxes, and no federal pardon can absolve him of that.

Now, NYS currently has a law that disallows state prosecution of an offence that has been pardoned at federal level (the new, Democratic-controlled assembly is expected to repeal that law stat). There's also a current SCOTUS case to have state prosecutions of federally-pardoned or acquitted crimes ruled unconstitutional on grounds of double jeopardy.

Neither would help Trump, or anyone else, accused of federal and state tax evasion. In the US you file and pay your state taxes to your state taxation authority, quite independently of your federal filings and payments to the IRS. So state and federal tax evasion would be prosecuted on separate acts of dishonesty.

Donny43 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice

That is a simple maority of 1

Not necessarily

Not sure why you say that to be honest

Abstentions. She could win 152-150, for example.

Anyone abstaining on this is not fit to be a conservative mp

Absolutely. They either have confidence in their leader or they don’t. If there are any ‘abstentions‘ then I’m giving up politics to live in a wood.

Is anyone on medical/family leave?

They can use a proxy.

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice

That is a simple maority of 1

Not necessarily

Not sure why you say that to be honest

Abstentions. She could win 152-150, for example.

Or 118-109.
That'd be 52%-48% on a turnout of 72%.
At which point it'll be undeniable we're living in a simulation run by someone with an evil sense of humour.

Lock the doors.

Slackbladder said:

Christopher Hope

@christopherhope
BREAKING Senior Brexiteer with detailed knowledge of the count says 86 Tory MPs have voted that they have no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader #toryleadership

If that's true, then that's very good for May.

Certainly not worth cancelling the Apprentice for such a non event if true

Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.

Slackbladder said:

Christopher Hope

@christopherhope
BREAKING Senior Brexiteer with detailed knowledge of the count says 86 Tory MPs have voted that they have no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader #toryleadership

If that's true, then that's very good for May.

If the no confidence vote is less than 100 then yes she's done well. Back then to the task of failing to get an inch out of Brussels, failing to get the deal through the Commons and being forced out in January having lost all authority.

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

rcs1000 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

Ploppikins said:

What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on

157, 158 or more she will go on regardless

You’re delusional

Nope those are the rules

Oh well done. That doesn’t mean she wouldn’t get the hint. It would be impossible for her to retain any authority or credibility if half her party have no confidence in her.

If she wins more than 60% of the vote, then I suspect she will carry on. You may not like it. (You won't.) But the reason is that there is probably nobody else in the Parliamentary Conservative Party who could garner that level of support.

I think 100+ voting against her will be enough for her Cabinet to force her resign.100+ against, and the DUP refusing to support any deal with a backstop in it and she’s got to go.

Dream on.

I am - that’s why I voted for her in 2016 before the dream became a nightmare. Now it’s OK to dream again. The exit sign is hopefully beckoning for her.

You were a Tory MP in 2016?

Slackbladder said:

Christopher Hope

@christopherhope
BREAKING Senior Brexiteer with detailed knowledge of the count says 86 Tory MPs have voted that they have no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader #toryleadership

If that's true, then that's very good for May.

Eh, in one sense. I'm not sure there is actually a good outcome for her from this, only some less shit ones.

WhisperingOracle said:

86 anti would be very good for May.

Depends on the number of abstentions.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1072944779955195904

OK, now things have gone too far.

I switched over to Channel 4 to watch The Secret Life of the Zoo, and what do I find? Nigel Farage and Alastair Campbell howling at one another.

I know I tuned in to watch dumb animals but this wasn't what I had in mind.

Bloody Tories! Have now changed channels to the snooker. Dammit.

Alright, who still has popcorn left?

MaxPB said:

WhisperingOracle said:

86 anti would be very good for May.

Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.

I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.

Black_Rook said:

OK, now things have gone too far.

I switched over to Channel 4 to watch The Secret Life of the Zoo, and what do I find? Nigel Farage and Alastair Campbell howling at one another.

I know I tuned in to watch dumb animals but this wasn't what I had in mind.

Bloody Tories! Have now changed channels to the snooker. Dammit.

Secret Life is starting now (I went to Chester Zoo - monorail! - back in April).

AmpfieldAndy said:

Benpointer said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

rcs1000 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

Ploppikins said:

What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on

157, 158 or more she will go on regardless

You’re delusional

Nope those are the rules

Oh well done. That doesn’t mean she wouldn’t get the hint. It would be impossible for her to retain any authority or credibility if half her party have no confidence in her.

If she wins more than 60% of the vote, then I suspect she will carry on. You may not like it. (You won't.) But the reason is that there is probably nobody else in the Parliamentary Conservative Party who could garner that level of support.

I think 100+ voting against her will be enough for her Cabinet to force her resign.100+ against, and the DUP refusing to support any deal with a backstop in it and she’s got to go.

Dream on.

I am - that’s why I voted for her in 2016 before the dream became a nightmare. Now it’s OK to dream again. The exit sign is hopefully beckoning for her.

You were a Tory MP in 2016?

Oops - typo, sorry. 2017.

Time to come clean now Jacob

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

TGOHF said:

If May wins the Conservatives lose.

Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.

And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.

You know nothing about the conservative party. Don't embarrass yourself.

Oooh, touchy.

But which piece are you responding to: that if May loses, the Conservatives also lose? Because if you don't believe that, then you don't know anything about the British electorate.

I have no opinion either way, I am sure you know nothing about the party or its inner workings. That much has been clear for a while.

Who is saying anything about the inner workings of the Conservative Party? What matters is the Great British Public. I cannot see any of the likely alternatives from the ERG lunatic fringe doing better at squaring the Brexit circle than May, or at being any more popular with the GBP.

Therefore, if she loses then the Conservatives lose.

kle4 said:

MaxPB said:

WhisperingOracle said:

86 anti would be very good for May.

Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.

I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.

I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:

MaxPB said:

WhisperingOracle said:

86 anti would be very good for May.

Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.

I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.

I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.

And then what? A General Election?

Still looks like 210-105 as projected earlier

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:

MaxPB said:

WhisperingOracle said:

86 anti would be very good for May.

Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.

I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.

I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.

Which would achieve nothing - maybe some will be cowed, but you don't go as intense as many of them without believing it is more important than the whip.

Cyclefree said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.

I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.

Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.

Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies.

There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.

You've tried this? I mean I know you used to work in London which is a very strange place but wow.

Gallowgate said:

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:

MaxPB said:

WhisperingOracle said:

86 anti would be very good for May.

Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.

I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.

I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.

And then what? A General Election?

If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.

What a deeply unimpressive spectacle the Conservative party is. There’s just nothing there.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1072945656669634561

100%, other sources have said.

Surely they’d have counted the 317 ballot papers by now? 2 seconds each is less than 11 minutes...

SouthamObserver said:

What a deeply unimpressive spectacle the Conservative party is. There’s just nothing there.

And yet Labour are still worse.

Sandpit said:

Surely they’d have counted the 317 ballot papers by now? 2 seconds each is less than 11 minutes...

These are conservatives. Counting is hard for these guys.

MaxPB said:

Gallowgate said:

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:

MaxPB said:

WhisperingOracle said:

86 anti would be very good for May.

Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.

I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.

I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.

And then what? A General Election?

If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.

Yes, they need to get off their "Acts of Union 1801"/"People's vote" hobby horses and vote it through.

Sandpit said:

Surely they’d have counted the 317 ballot papers by now? 2 seconds each is less than 11 minutes...

They're assessing the various rude things drawn into boxes instead of crosses

Cyclefree said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.

I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.

Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.

Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies.

There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.

Just wondering - would a roast potato be any better?

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.

I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.

Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.

Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies.

There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.

You've tried this? I mean I know you used to work in London which is a very strange place but wow.

I still do work in London, at least some of the time.

I know. The things I have had to try in my time - imagine, even chocolate dribbled on my coffee. I told the boiled potato that that was a step too far........