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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/12/eu-reacted-theresa-may-facing-no-confidence-vote/

    "Bad news for Theresa May's Brussels trip as EU leaders will give her only 10 minutes of their time "

    "The European Union is poised to reject Theresa May’s demands for “legally binding assurances” that the Irish backstop will only ever be temporary, senior EU diplomats have told Telegraph."

    It's a line they won't cross. Unhelpfully as it really does seem like the deal has at least a chance if they would bend on that point.
    It's especially unhelpful since if they won't bend, they will themselves have to erect a hard border in Ireland, the very thing they claim they were trying to avoid.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    86 anti would be very good for May.

    Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.
    I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.
    I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.
    And then what? A General Election?
    If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.
    And then it still doesn't have the numbers to pass.
    With every Tory falling in line it would need 3 Labour MPs to vote with the government. There are more than three Labour MPs who will vote for the deal vs no deal or no brexit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Pulpstar said:

    317 ballots should take about 5 minutes. There are only two choices and one X allowed !

    Have to check for the official mark, and I suspect it's counted more than once given how important it is.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’d have counted the 317 ballot papers by now? 2 seconds each is less than 11 minutes...

    Yebbut... the BBC aren't going to be on air with their special programme until 20:30
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Pulpstar said:

    317 ballots should take about 5 minutes. There are only two choices and one X allowed !

    Some numpty probably filled in their ballot by ranked preference.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Detailled knowledge of the count suggests a teller - so doesn't include liars.

    Its a secret ballot, supposedly. If that turns out to be anything other than fantasy there will be trouble.
    Especially as it was tweeted 9 minutes before polls closed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    86 anti would be very good for May.

    Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.
    I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.
    I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.
    And then what? A General Election?
    If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.
    And then it still doesn't have the numbers to pass.
    With every Tory falling in line it would need 3 Labour MPs to vote with the government. There are more than three Labour MPs who will vote for the deal vs no deal or no brexit.
    Flint, Mann, Austin I think.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:
    "Badly damaged but limping on" is the title of her autobiography.
    May: The Downing Street Years

    Volume 1: Strong And Stable
    Volume 2: Marginally Less Shit Than Corbyn
    Volume 3: Badly Damaged But Limping On
    Volume 4: Breathing With The Aid Of A Ventilator
    Volume 5: Oh God, Will This Ever End?
    Volume 6: Eddie Izzard, MP For Maidenhead
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    Cyclefree said:

    Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.

    I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.

    Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.

    Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies. :)

    There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.
    Just wondering - would a roast potato be any better?
    Just don't think about the croquettes
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    317 ballots should take about 5 minutes. There are only two choices and one X allowed !

    Have to check for the official mark, and I suspect it's counted more than once given how important it is.
    Perhaps they’ve hired the Broward County staff to do the count
  • eekeek Posts: 28,408

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’d have counted the 317 ballot papers by now? 2 seconds each is less than 11 minutes...

    They're assessing the various rude things drawn into boxes instead of crosses
    It’s already been shown that the drawing needs to be obviously across multiple boxes for it not to count
  • ydoethur said:

    What a deeply unimpressive spectacle the Conservative party is. There’s just nothing there.

    And yet Labour are still worse.

    I see no real difference on the front benches. The Labour backbenches are stronger.

  • End of days.... a UKIPhome poll for a thread....

    Worrying times.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    86 anti would be very good for May.

    Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.
    I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.
    I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.
    And then what? A General Election?
    If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.
    And then it still doesn't have the numbers to pass.
    With every Tory falling in line it would need 3 Labour MPs to vote with the government. There are more than three Labour MPs who will vote for the deal vs no deal or no brexit.
    Flint, Mann, Austin I think.
    Yeah, if every Tory MP were to vote for the deal, I think there'd be enough Labour MPs to get it through.

    But the ERG "falling into line" seems pretty much a pipe dream...
  • End of days.... a UKIPhome poll for a thread....

    Worrying times.

    Check out my twitter feed, I got into a spat with Mark Wallace of UKIPHome over this poll.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’d have counted the 317 ballot papers by now? 2 seconds each is less than 11 minutes...

    They're assessing the various rude things drawn into boxes instead of crosses
    It’s already been shown that the drawing needs to be obviously across multiple boxes for it not to count
    Someone once wrote fuck off neatly in a ballot. A clear vote against a candidate. Counted as a vote for said candidate.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    Counting is always slow when you have a high turnout. It's not Sunderland South.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

    Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.

    And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
    You know nothing about the conservative party. Don't embarrass yourself.
    Oooh, touchy.

    But which piece are you responding to: that if May loses, the Conservatives also lose? Because if you don't believe that, then you don't know anything about the British electorate.
    I have no opinion either way, I am sure you know nothing about the party or its inner workings. That much has been clear for a while.
    Who is saying anything about the inner workings of the Conservative Party? What matters is the Great British Public. I cannot see any of the likely alternatives from the ERG lunatic fringe doing better at squaring the Brexit circle than May, or at being any more popular with the GBP.

    Therefore, if she loses then the Conservatives lose.
    You have no idea what conservative voters want. We aren't the party of EUphilia.
    I know plenty of Conservative voters, and talk to a fair few. Whilst the Conservatives are not the party of EUphilia, they're also not the party of EUphobia either - that was UKIP. However much the ERGers are trying to make them so.

    Conservatives should be trying to make the entire electorate their voters. They should be trying to attract as many people as possible to their vision of the future of the country. The sad thing is that the Conservative Europhobes have been doing exactly the opposite for decades - reducing the party's appeal, fighting others in the party, and looking backwards.

    You are talking about the core vote, and if you only try to appeal to that - and especially only the EUphobic core - then the Conservatives lose, and lose big.

    Hence my comment.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Maybe it's close enough to warrant a recount....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    19/1 against May on Betfair now. Does someone know something?
  • Pulpstar said:

    317 ballots should take about 5 minutes. There are only two choices and one X allowed !

    Some numpty probably filled in their ballot by ranked preference.
    TSE? :lol:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
  • Pulpstar said:

    317 ballots should take about 5 minutes. There are only two choices and one X allowed !

    Some numpty probably filled in their ballot by ranked preference.
    +1
  • eekeek Posts: 28,408
    Jonathan said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’d have counted the 317 ballot papers by now? 2 seconds each is less than 11 minutes...

    They're assessing the various rude things drawn into boxes instead of crosses
    It’s already been shown that the drawing needs to be obviously across multiple boxes for it not to count
    Someone once wrote fuck off neatly in a ballot. A clear vote against a candidate. Counted as a vote for said candidate.
    Why do you think it said it needs to be across multiple boxes
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    OK, now things have gone too far.

    I switched over to Channel 4 to watch The Secret Life of the Zoo, and what do I find? Nigel Farage and Alastair Campbell howling at one another.

    I know I tuned in to watch dumb animals but this wasn't what I had in mind.

    Bloody Tories! Have now changed channels to the snooker. Dammit.

    Secret Life is starting now (I went to Chester Zoo - monorail! - back in April).
    Oh, fuck it. Wish I'd seen that earlier. Will have to watch on catch up later.

    Bloody Tories, grrrrr...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited December 2018

    Counting is always slow when you have a high turnout. It's not Sunderland South.

    I understand in parts of London counting is quite slow, because of the 470% turnout.
  • I assume that (a) they now have a result and (b) Brady is on the phone to May
  • OortOort Posts: 96

    TGOHF said:
    What's he talking about - she needs at least 158 to win?
    She needs a majority of votes cast. At most that will mean 159 out of 317, now that Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths have been reinstated.

    If she wins and stays on, it will be so satisfying if she carries out an evening of the long knives against the ERGers in the cabinet. Boot the lot of them out without prior notice. That has about as much chance of happening as the nationalisation of the Sun.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,884
    I really didn't think this could get any more farcical. Never underestimate the Conservative party's skill with farce.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    317 ballots should take about 5 minutes. There are only two choices and one X allowed !

    Have to check for the official mark, and I suspect it's counted more than once given how important it is.
    Got to check all the micro dots to identify which MPs voted yea or nay.
  • Does she need 50% support of MPs eligible to vote (i.e. 159) or 50% of MPs who chose to vote...?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Some Tory MP on BBC thinks May has got two-thirds of votes.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Sandpit said:

    19/1 against May on Betfair now. Does someone know something?

    If I wasn't too lazy to open an account I'd bung a fiver on that.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.

    I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.

    Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.

    Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies. :)

    There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.
    Just wondering - would a roast potato be any better?
    A roast potato is better than most things and certainly better than sex with Boris (I imagine - I do have some standards, you know).
  • Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    86 anti would be very good for May.

    Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.
    I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.
    I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.
    And then what? A General Election?
    If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.
    Yes, they need to get off their "Acts of Union 1801"/"People's vote" hobby horses and vote it through.
    A General Election quite possibly solves absolutely nothing. If the deal can't get through; it needs to be put to the people.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Pulpstar said:

    317 ballots should take about 5 minutes. There are only two choices and one X allowed !

    Some numpty probably filled in their ballot by ranked preference.
    In the AV referendum that counted as spoiled.

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/electoral_commission_pdf_file/0009/110043/May-referendum-doubtful-placemat-2011.pdf
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Oort said:

    TGOHF said:
    What's he talking about - she needs at least 158 to win?
    She needs a majority of votes cast. At most that will mean 159 out of 317, now that Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths have been reinstated.

    If she wins and stays on, it will be so satisfying if she carries out an evening of the long knives against the ERGers in the cabinet. Boot the lot of them out without prior notice. That has about as much chance of happening as the nationalisation of the Sun.
    And if it did they'd all be screaming blue Murdoch...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Does she need 50% support of MPs eligible to vote (i.e. 159) or 50% of MPs who chose to vote...?

    Choose to vote. Everyone voted making the question moot.
  • End of days.... a UKIPhome poll for a thread....

    Worrying times.

    Check out my twitter feed, I got into a spat with Mark Wallace of UKIPHome over this poll.
    Good on you!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    86 anti would be very good for May.

    Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.
    I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.
    I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.
    And then what? A General Election?
    If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.
    Yes, they need to get off their "Acts of Union 1801"/"People's vote" hobby horses and vote it through.
    A General Election quite possibly solves absolutely nothing. If the deal can't get through; it needs to be put to the people.
    Perhaps, but using that as a reason to vote against it in parliament is ridiculous in my book. Particularly for the Tories.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    That's a good point. When might he give it a go?

    (a) as soon as possible,
    (b) after the Withdrawal Agreement is voted down, or
    (c) keep waiting til April and hope May ends up in charge of No Deal and makes as much of a mess of it as we would expect?

    So many delicious opportunities!
  • eek said:

    Jonathan said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely they’d have counted the 317 ballot papers by now? 2 seconds each is less than 11 minutes...

    They're assessing the various rude things drawn into boxes instead of crosses
    It’s already been shown that the drawing needs to be obviously across multiple boxes for it not to count
    Someone once wrote fuck off neatly in a ballot. A clear vote against a candidate. Counted as a vote for said candidate.
    Why do you think it said it needs to be across multiple boxes
    It's the interplay of statute ' voter's intention is clear ' and case law. Whether the centre of the symbol is inside the box is the key.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    Oort said:

    TGOHF said:
    What's he talking about - she needs at least 158 to win?
    She needs a majority of votes cast. At most that will mean 159 out of 317, now that Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths have been reinstated.

    If she wins and stays on, it will be so satisfying if she carries out an evening of the long knives against the ERGers in the cabinet. Boot the lot of them out without prior notice. That has about as much chance of happening as the nationalisation of the Sun.
    Talking of the Sun (and going way off-topic), is your username anything to do with a certain cloud?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    ydoethur said:

    What a deeply unimpressive spectacle the Conservative party is. There’s just nothing there.

    And yet Labour are still worse.

    I see no real difference on the front benches. The Labour backbenches are stronger.


    That's because they're mainly full of ex-front benchers.
  • It looks like some are cashing out their profits.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Graun journo says the result is embargoed until 9pm:
    https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1072946022723321857
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Danny565 said:

    Some Tory MP on BBC thinks May has got two-thirds of votes.

    Well my prediction was 200-100 but I'd be surprised to be on the nail.
  • Alistair said:

    Does she need 50% support of MPs eligible to vote (i.e. 159) or 50% of MPs who chose to vote...?

    Choose to vote. Everyone voted making the question moot.
    Thankyta
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Donny43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    317 ballots should take about 5 minutes. There are only two choices and one X allowed !

    Some numpty probably filled in their ballot by ranked preference.
    In the AV referendum that counted as spoiled.

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/electoral_commission_pdf_file/0009/110043/May-referendum-doubtful-placemat-2011.pdf
    Should Margot James ballot be rules invalid as she has identified herself on twitter ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    DavidL said:

    I really didn't think this could get any more farcical. Never underestimate the Conservative party's skill with farce.

    How much skill is involved?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,170
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    86 anti would be very good for May.

    Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.
    I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.
    I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.
    And then what? A General Election?
    If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.
    And then it still doesn't have the numbers to pass.
    With every Tory falling in line it would need 3 Labour MPs to vote with the government. There are more than three Labour MPs who will vote for the deal vs no deal or no brexit.
    Fair enough, it would be closer than I recognised. Now, how many, realistically, will not do so under any circumstances? 10? 20? 30?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,884
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    I really didn't think this could get any more farcical. Never underestimate the Conservative party's skill with farce.

    How much skill is involved?
    All they have, usually.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    rpjs said:

    Graun journo says the result is embargoed until 9pm:
    https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1072946022723321857

    FFS, I want to go to bed.
  • rpjs said:

    Graun journo says the result is embargoed until 9pm:
    https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1072946022723321857

    Graham Brady hates the Apprentice. Sod it, I'm off to boost Britain's GDP at the chip shop.
  • Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    What a deeply unimpressive spectacle the Conservative party is. There’s just nothing there.

    And yet Labour are still worse.

    I see no real difference on the front benches. The Labour backbenches are stronger.


    That's because they're mainly full of ex-front benchers.

    Yep.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Danny565 said:
    Dear oh dear... Laura K still holding a candle for the ERG cause, I see.
  • rpjs said:

    Graun journo says the result is embargoed until 9pm:
    https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1072946022723321857

    Whilst they work out WTAF they do next
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    tlg86 said:

    rpjs said:

    Graun journo says the result is embargoed until 9pm:
    https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1072946022723321857

    FFS, I want to go to bed.
    Where are you in the world tonight?

    Half past midnight for me, alarm goes off five hours from now!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,170

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    86 anti would be very good for May.

    Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.
    I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.
    I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.
    And then what? A General Election?
    If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.
    Yes, they need to get off their "Acts of Union 1801"/"People's vote" hobby horses and vote it through.
    A General Election quite possibly solves absolutely nothing. If the deal can't get through; it needs to be put to the people.
    It's a bit circular though - some are ensuring it doesn't get through purely so that it gets put to the people so they can remain.
  • OortOort Posts: 96
    rpjs said:

    Graun journo says the result is embargoed until 9pm:
    https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1072946022723321857

    He says the announcement will be made at 9pm. There's no indication that the result has been given to the media under embargo.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited December 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    Yes that would do it. Although it might also cause her to lose a HoC VoNC
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,170
    Ideal monetary result for me would be May loses, Hunt takes over and then Starmer replaces Corbyn. Let's do this.
  • Danny565 said:
    Fake news.

    Dave always knew if Remain lost he'd have to resign.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    Leave with May’s deal vs Leave with no deal. Remain have already lost.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Danny565 said:
    Dear oh dear... Laura K still holding a candle for the ERG cause, I see.
    She is utterly tiresome. Unbearable. Solely responsible for my switching to ITV News after being a loyal BBC watcher all my life.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    Yes that would do it.
    Agreed. And get on with it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    86 anti would be very good for May.

    Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.
    I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.
    I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.
    And then what? A General Election?
    If they don't fall in line I don't see any other option. If May has won convincingly then they need to fall in line with the party. Fuck principles.
    Yes, they need to get off their "Acts of Union 1801"/"People's vote" hobby horses and vote it through.
    A General Election quite possibly solves absolutely nothing. If the deal can't get through; it needs to be put to the people.
    It's a bit circular though - some are ensuring it doesn't get through purely so that it gets put to the people so they can remain.
    Yes, that is my main beef with the "People's vote" crew in parliament at the moment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.

    I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.

    Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.

    Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies. :)

    There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.
    You've tried this? I mean I know you used to work in London which is a very strange place but wow.
    My assumption was that she's had the boiled potato and was extrapolating to Boris. But happy to be corrected.
  • OortOort Posts: 96
    The BBC report that a journo on the Jewish Chronicle has tweeted that Theresa May has been told the result.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

    Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.

    And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
    You know nothing about the conservative party. Don't embarrass yourself.
    Oooh, touchy.

    But which piece are you responding to: that if May loses, the Conservatives also lose? Because if you don't believe that, then you don't know anything about the British electorate.
    I have no opinion either way, I am sure you know nothing about the party or its inner workings. That much has been clear for a while.
    Who is saying anything about the inner workings of the Conservative Party? What matters is the Great British Public. I cannot see any of the likely alternatives from the ERG lunatic fringe doing better at squaring the Brexit circle than May, or at being any more popular with the GBP.

    Therefore, if she loses then the Conservatives lose.
    You have no idea what conservative voters want. We aren't the party of EUphilia.
    I know plenty of Conservative voters, and talk to a fair few. Whilst the Conservatives are not the party of EUphilia, they're also not the party of EUphobia either - that was UKIP. However much the ERGers are trying to make them so.

    Conservatives should be trying to make the entire electorate their voters. They should be trying to attract as many people as possible to their vision of the future of the country. The sad thing is that the Conservative Europhobes have been doing exactly the opposite for decades - reducing the party's appeal, fighting others in the party, and looking backwards.

    You are talking about the core vote, and if you only try to appeal to that - and especially only the EUphobic core - then the Conservatives lose, and lose big.

    Hence my comment.
    +1 Many of the long-term Tory voters I know are appalled by Brexit. They are not new ones who voted Tory perhaps for the first time in 2017 but people who have voted Tory for decades. Brexit will just do harm to the Tories as they are going to take a hit electorally whether it is Hard Brexit, Soft Brexit or Remain. The least damaging in my opinion is Remain,
  • Told @theresa_may has now been told result of #voteofconfidence ahead of 9pm media announcement

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,170
    edited December 2018

    I assume that (a) they now have a result and (b) Brady is on the phone to May

    That's Lord Brady, newly appointed Cabinet Minister, thank you.
    Ah, she must know she's lost and it is over at last.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Did it look like she had just crushed some saboteurs?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited December 2018
    Given the situation, that could be a sign she's lost.

    Edit - oy, @kle4!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    That's an added bonus then! :lol:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    That's an added bonus then! :lol:
    It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.

    I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.

    Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.

    Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies. :)

    There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.
    You've tried this? I mean I know you used to work in London which is a very strange place but wow.
    My assumption was that she's had the boiled potato and was extrapolating to Boris. But happy to be corrected.
    I am happy to confirm that I have never had Boris in any way, shape or form. It is an utter mystery to me why any sentient woman would want to get closer to him than a handshake, since he has - to me - all the sex appeal of a lukewarm, slightly flaky, over-boiled potato (i.e. for the avoidance of doubt - none). He also looks as if he doesn't wash very often.

  • Told @theresa_may has now been told result of #voteofconfidence ahead of 9pm media announcement

    And is sinking a bottle of Vodka after hearing that sadly she is still in charge of Brexit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.

    As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    That's an added bonus then! :lol:
    It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.
    Do you think she's stupid enough to let the country accidentally slip into No Deal Brexit? Because that might be the alternative to a 2nd referendum.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    I have no idea how this will go but my guess is the No's will get more votes than expected. They have more reason to lie.
  • Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1072953044558643206

    Nothing has changed, I will carry on delivering Brexit, yadda yadda yadda....
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Assuming she's still in a job, must be tempting to come out and announce any old shit for policies, just to piss folk off
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    .
    Scott_P said:
    Isn’t that to stop the media speculating based on the presence or absence of the crest on the usual lectern?
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    That's an added bonus then! :lol:
    It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.
    It would be nice if the national interest was occasionally prioritised versus the internal politics of the conservative party. We need an outcome and clarity.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    BBC: Turnout is 100%
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.

    I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.

    Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.

    Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies. :)

    There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.
    You've tried this? I mean I know you used to work in London which is a very strange place but wow.
    My assumption was that she's had the boiled potato and was extrapolating to Boris. But happy to be corrected.
    I am happy to confirm that I have never had Boris in any way, shape or form. It is an utter mystery to me why any sentient woman would want to get closer to him than a handshake, since he has - to me - all the sex appeal of a lukewarm, slightly flaky, over-boiled potato (i.e. for the avoidance of doubt - none). He also looks as if he doesn't wash very often.

    :+1:
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
This discussion has been closed.