In the US, the view is increasingly that Trump is likely to end up prosecuted post-Presidency. There's tax evasion regarding the Fred Trump legacy. There's campaign finance violations. There's potentially obstruction of justice. The first of these is by far the most serious charges, and is the one that has been the subject of the least headlines.
Some of my conservative friends - engaging in a little bit of wishful thinking, perhaps - think that the best way forward would be for Trumo to stand down ahead of the 2020 election so that President Pence can preemptively pardon him. (As Ford did with Nixon.)
I thought he was also being prosecuted (or something) in state courts which are not subject to a federal pardon? At least I think that’s what I read.
In the US, the view is increasingly that Trump is likely to end up prosecuted post-Presidency. There's tax evasion regarding the Fred Trump legacy. There's campaign finance violations. There's potentially obstruction of justice. The first of these is by far the most serious charges, and is the one that has been the subject of the least headlines.
Some of my conservative friends - engaging in a little bit of wishful thinking, perhaps - think that the best way forward would be for Trumo to stand down ahead of the 2020 election so that President Pence can preemptively pardon him. (As Ford did with Nixon.)
Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out..
I have not got a scooby. Seriously. I couldn't even guess. I think she'll win less than expected and everybody will go "Oh, that was closer that I thought". But as for whether she'll win or lose: no idea.
I think that's probably right.
But unless it's really, really close (like 55:45), then I don't see her stepping down.
For the record, I think the total number of votes cast will be rather fewer than people are forecasting, and there'll be at least 20 absentions/spoilt ballots.
Seriously? You are joking? What would the point be of abstaining or spoiling a ballot paper? An appalling dereliction of duty if any Toty MP did.
Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out..
I have not got a scooby. Seriously. I couldn't even guess. I think she'll win less than expected and everybody will go "Oh, that was closer that I thought". But as for whether she'll win or lose: no idea.
I think that's probably right.
But unless it's really, really close (like 55:45), then I don't see her stepping down.
For the record, I think the total number of votes cast will be rather fewer than people are forecasting, and there'll be at least 20 absentions/spoilt ballots.
Seriously? You are joking? What would the point be of abstaining or spoiling a ballot paper? An appalling dereliction of duty if any Toty MP did.
What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on
157, 158 or more she will go on regardless
You’re delusional
Nope those are the rules
Oh well done. That doesn’t mean she wouldn’t get the hint. It would be impossible for her to retain any authority or credibility if half her party have no confidence in her.
If she wins more than 60% of the vote, then I suspect she will carry on. You may not like it. (You won't.) But the reason is that there is probably nobody else in the Parliamentary Conservative Party who could garner that level of support.
@christopherhope BREAKING Senior Brexiteer with detailed knowledge of the count says 86 Tory MPs have voted that they have no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader #toryleadership
What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on
157, 158 or more she will go on regardless
You’re delusional
Nope those are the rules
Oh well done. That doesn’t mean she wouldn’t get the hint. It would be impossible for her to retain any authority or credibility if half her party have no confidence in her.
If she wins more than 60% of the vote, then I suspect she will carry on. You may not like it. (You won't.) But the reason is that there is probably nobody else in the Parliamentary Conservative Party who could garner that level of support.
I think 100+ voting against her will be enough for her Cabinet to force her resign.100+ against, and the DUP refusing to support any deal with a backstop in it and she’s got to go.
What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on
157, 158 or more she will go on regardless
You’re delusional
Nope those are the rules
Oh well done. That doesn’t mean she wouldn’t get the hint. It would be impossible for her to retain any authority or credibility if half her party have no confidence in her.
If she wins more than 60% of the vote, then I suspect she will carry on. You may not like it. (You won't.) But the reason is that there is probably nobody else in the Parliamentary Conservative Party who could garner that level of support.
I think 100+ voting against her will be enough for her Cabinet to force her resign.100+ against, and the DUP refusing to support any deal with a backstop in it and she’s got to go.
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
You know nothing about the conservative party. Don't embarrass yourself.
Oooh, touchy.
But which piece are you responding to: that if May loses, the Conservatives also lose? Because if you don't believe that, then you don't know anything about the British electorate.
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
It won't. The EUCO draft is
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments. * makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA * says nothing about Northern Ireland * requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
This is the draft that is being discussed at the council over the next two days so why not wait and see the final version. The secret is in the name 'draft'
Will wording changes make it any more legally binding?
Council decisions are political decisions, as Cameron discovered to his cost.
Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out..
I have not got a scooby. Seriously. I couldn't even guess. I think she'll win less than expected and everybody will go "Oh, that was closer that I thought". But as for whether she'll win or lose: no idea.
I think that's probably right.
But unless it's really, really close (like 55:45), then I don't see her stepping down.
For the record, I think the total number of votes cast will be rather fewer than people are forecasting, and there'll be at least 20 absentions/spoilt ballots.
Seriously? You are joking? What would the point be of abstaining or spoiling a ballot paper? An appalling dereliction of duty if any Toty MP did.
BBC News - the Chancellor voted not long ago. Was asked by a hack as he went into the Committee room which way he was voting and he answered "Conservative".
In the US, the view is increasingly that Trump is likely to end up prosecuted post-Presidency. There's tax evasion regarding the Fred Trump legacy. There's campaign finance violations. There's potentially obstruction of justice. The first of these is by far the most serious charges, and is the one that has been the subject of the least headlines.
Some of my conservative friends - engaging in a little bit of wishful thinking, perhaps - think that the best way forward would be for Trumo to stand down ahead of the 2020 election so that President Pence can preemptively pardon him. (As Ford did with Nixon.)
I thought he was also being prosecuted (or something) in state courts which are not subject to a federal pardon? At least I think that’s what I read.
He certainly could be prosecuted in state courts for evading state taxes, and no federal pardon can absolve him of that.
Now, NYS currently has a law that disallows state prosecution of an offence that has been pardoned at federal level (the new, Democratic-controlled assembly is expected to repeal that law stat). There's also a current SCOTUS case to have state prosecutions of federally-pardoned or acquitted crimes ruled unconstitutional on grounds of double jeopardy.
Neither would help Trump, or anyone else, accused of federal and state tax evasion. In the US you file and pay your state taxes to your state taxation authority, quite independently of your federal filings and payments to the IRS. So state and federal tax evasion would be prosecuted on separate acts of dishonesty.
What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on
157, 158 or more she will go on regardless
You’re delusional
Nope those are the rules
Oh well done. That doesn’t mean she wouldn’t get the hint. It would be impossible for her to retain any authority or credibility if half her party have no confidence in her.
If she wins more than 60% of the vote, then I suspect she will carry on. You may not like it. (You won't.) But the reason is that there is probably nobody else in the Parliamentary Conservative Party who could garner that level of support.
I think 100+ voting against her will be enough for her Cabinet to force her resign.100+ against, and the DUP refusing to support any deal with a backstop in it and she’s got to go.
Dream on.
I am - that’s why I voted for her in 2016 before the dream became a nightmare. Now it’s OK to dream again. The exit sign is hopefully beckoning for her.
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
You know nothing about the conservative party. Don't embarrass yourself.
Oooh, touchy.
But which piece are you responding to: that if May loses, the Conservatives also lose? Because if you don't believe that, then you don't know anything about the British electorate.
I have no opinion either way, I am sure you know nothing about the party or its inner workings. That much has been clear for a while.
Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice
That is a simple maority of 1
Not necessarily
Not sure why you say that to be honest
Abstentions. She could win 152-150, for example.
Or 118-109. That'd be 52%-48% on a turnout of 72%. At which point it'll be undeniable we're living in a simulation run by someone with an evil sense of humour.
@christopherhope BREAKING Senior Brexiteer with detailed knowledge of the count says 86 Tory MPs have voted that they have no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader #toryleadership
If that's true, then that's very good for May.
Certainly not worth cancelling the Apprentice for such a non event if true
Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.
BBC News - the Chancellor voted not long ago. Was asked by a hack as he went into the Committee room which way he was voting and he answered "Conservative".
@christopherhope BREAKING Senior Brexiteer with detailed knowledge of the count says 86 Tory MPs have voted that they have no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader #toryleadership
If that's true, then that's very good for May.
If the no confidence vote is less than 100 then yes she's done well. Back then to the task of failing to get an inch out of Brussels, failing to get the deal through the Commons and being forced out in January having lost all authority.
@christopherhope BREAKING Senior Brexiteer with detailed knowledge of the count says 86 Tory MPs have voted that they have no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader #toryleadership
If that's true, then that's very good for May.
Certainly not worth cancelling the Apprentice for such a non event if true
Yep - that’s not enough against to force her out sadly. Missed opportunity. Still, Corbyn will be happy if that’s case - still up against a lame duck.
What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on
157, 158 or more she will go on regardless
You’re delusional
Nope those are the rules
Oh well done. That doesn’t mean she wouldn’t get the hint. It would be impossible for her to retain any authority or credibility if half her party have no confidence in her.
If she wins more than 60% of the vote, then I suspect she will carry on. You may not like it. (You won't.) But the reason is that there is probably nobody else in the Parliamentary Conservative Party who could garner that level of support.
I think 100+ voting against her will be enough for her Cabinet to force her resign.100+ against, and the DUP refusing to support any deal with a backstop in it and she’s got to go.
Dream on.
I am - that’s why I voted for her in 2016 before the dream became a nightmare. Now it’s OK to dream again. The exit sign is hopefully beckoning for her.
@christopherhope BREAKING Senior Brexiteer with detailed knowledge of the count says 86 Tory MPs have voted that they have no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader #toryleadership
If that's true, then that's very good for May.
Eh, in one sense. I'm not sure there is actually a good outcome for her from this, only some less shit ones.
"Bad news for Theresa May's Brussels trip as EU leaders will give her only 10 minutes of their time "
"The European Union is poised to reject Theresa May’s demands for “legally binding assurances” that the Irish backstop will only ever be temporary, senior EU diplomats have told Telegraph."
What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on
157, 158 or more she will go on regardless
You’re delusional
Nope those are the rules
Oh well done. That doesn’t mean she wouldn’t get the hint. It would be impossible for her to retain any authority or credibility if half her party have no confidence in her.
If she wins more than 60% of the vote, then I suspect she will carry on. You may not like it. (You won't.) But the reason is that there is probably nobody else in the Parliamentary Conservative Party who could garner that level of support.
I think 100+ voting against her will be enough for her Cabinet to force her resign.100+ against, and the DUP refusing to support any deal with a backstop in it and she’s got to go.
Dream on.
I am - that’s why I voted for her in 2016 before the dream became a nightmare. Now it’s OK to dream again. The exit sign is hopefully beckoning for her.
What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on
157, 158 or more she will go on regardless
You’re delusional
Nope those are the rules
Oh well done. That doesn’t mean she wouldn’t get the hint. It would be impossible for her to retain any authority or credibility if half her party have no confidence in her.
If she wins more than 60% of the vote, then I suspect she will carry on. You may not like it. (You won't.) But the reason is that there is probably nobody else in the Parliamentary Conservative Party who could garner that level of support.
I think 100+ voting against her will be enough for her Cabinet to force her resign.100+ against, and the DUP refusing to support any deal with a backstop in it and she’s got to go.
Dream on.
I am - that’s why I voted for her in 2016 before the dream became a nightmare. Now it’s OK to dream again. The exit sign is hopefully beckoning for her.
"Bad news for Theresa May's Brussels trip as EU leaders will give her only 10 minutes of their time "
"The European Union is poised to reject Theresa May’s demands for “legally binding assurances” that the Irish backstop will only ever be temporary, senior EU diplomats have told Telegraph."
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
You know nothing about the conservative party. Don't embarrass yourself.
Oooh, touchy.
But which piece are you responding to: that if May loses, the Conservatives also lose? Because if you don't believe that, then you don't know anything about the British electorate.
I have no opinion either way, I am sure you know nothing about the party or its inner workings. That much has been clear for a while.
Who is saying anything about the inner workings of the Conservative Party? What matters is the Great British Public. I cannot see any of the likely alternatives from the ERG lunatic fringe doing better at squaring the Brexit circle than May, or at being any more popular with the GBP.
Therefore, if she loses then the Conservatives lose.
Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.
I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.
Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.
Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies.
There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.
Yes, it would be a comprehensive win. Enough to tell the ERG to shut up and vote for the deal.
I'm sure they'll get right on it - it's no longer a humiliating submission to eternal domination at the hands of the EU.
I think anyone who votes against could reasonably have the whip withdrawn.
Which would achieve nothing - maybe some will be cowed, but you don't go as intense as many of them without believing it is more important than the whip.
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
You know nothing about the conservative party. Don't embarrass yourself.
Oooh, touchy.
But which piece are you responding to: that if May loses, the Conservatives also lose? Because if you don't believe that, then you don't know anything about the British electorate.
I have no opinion either way, I am sure you know nothing about the party or its inner workings. That much has been clear for a while.
Who is saying anything about the inner workings of the Conservative Party? What matters is the Great British Public. I cannot see any of the likely alternatives from the ERG lunatic fringe doing better at squaring the Brexit circle than May, or at being any more popular with the GBP.
Therefore, if she loses then the Conservatives lose.
You have no idea what conservative voters want. We aren't the party of EUphilia.
Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.
I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.
Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.
Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies.
There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.
You've tried this? I mean I know you used to work in London which is a very strange place but wow.
Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.
There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.
That's a good point. However, I'd argue the same is true of one of JRM, Fox, Davis and Boris.
The Conservatives are screwed if they go down either of those roads.
I dont think any of those four would win the leadership.
Two of them probably want it, and another probably wants to be kingmaker. And if May loses (and I hope shes does not), her replacement will be an ERGer. And of that crowd of ner-do-wells, those four are amongst the *best* options...
"Bad news for Theresa May's Brussels trip as EU leaders will give her only 10 minutes of their time "
"The European Union is poised to reject Theresa May’s demands for “legally binding assurances” that the Irish backstop will only ever be temporary, senior EU diplomats have told Telegraph."
It's a line they won't cross. Unhelpfully as it really does seem like the deal has at least a chance if they would bend on that point.
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
You know nothing about the conservative party. Don't embarrass yourself.
Oooh, touchy.
But which piece are you responding to: that if May loses, the Conservatives also lose? Because if you don't believe that, then you don't know anything about the British electorate.
I have no opinion either way, I am sure you know nothing about the party or its inner workings. That much has been clear for a while.
Who is saying anything about the inner workings of the Conservative Party? What matters is the Great British Public. I cannot see any of the likely alternatives from the ERG lunatic fringe doing better at squaring the Brexit circle than May, or at being any more popular with the GBP.
Therefore, if she loses then the Conservatives lose.
You have no idea what conservative voters want. We aren't the party of EUphilia.
Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.
I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.
Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.
Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies.
There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.
Just wondering - would a roast potato be any better?
Penny Mordaunt and Louise Mensch may offer the way forward for a Toty party, at least for male voters. According to my wife Rory Stewart and Ivan Massow may also be eligible to join.
I like Rory Stewart. I often see him in Cumbria when out walking. A bit weird looking but tall and strangely attractive. Also he wrote quite an interesting book about the Scottish borderlands and Cumbria, which was really a sort of love letter to his father, who sounded like a real character.
Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.
Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies.
There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.
You've tried this? I mean I know you used to work in London which is a very strange place but wow.
I still do work in London, at least some of the time.
I know. The things I have had to try in my time - imagine, even chocolate dribbled on my coffee. I told the boiled potato that that was a step too far........
Comments
It is merely rationalised, as "well, all politicians are liars, and at least President Trump is on my side."
Which is, I think, a dangerous rabbit hole to go down.
My deal is the only deal.
I am getting on with the job of delivering Brexit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xQVz5iLMFk
Waste. Of. Skin.
I’ve £20 at 1/2 and £5 the other way at 19/2 so happy with either result. I think it’s going to be much closer than most commentators expect.
The Conservatives are screwed if they go down either of those roads.
@christopherhope
BREAKING Senior Brexiteer with detailed knowledge of the count says 86 Tory MPs have voted that they have no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader #toryleadership
If that's true, then that's very good for May.
But which piece are you responding to: that if May loses, the Conservatives also lose? Because if you don't believe that, then you don't know anything about the British electorate.
Or something
Voting against then...
Now, NYS currently has a law that disallows state prosecution of an offence that has been pardoned at federal level (the new, Democratic-controlled assembly is expected to repeal that law stat). There's also a current SCOTUS case to have state prosecutions of federally-pardoned or acquitted crimes ruled unconstitutional on grounds of double jeopardy.
Neither would help Trump, or anyone else, accused of federal and state tax evasion. In the US you file and pay your state taxes to your state taxation authority, quite independently of your federal filings and payments to the IRS. So state and federal tax evasion would be prosecuted on separate acts of dishonesty.
That'd be 52%-48% on a turnout of 72%.
At which point it'll be undeniable we're living in a simulation run by someone with an evil sense of humour.
I switched over to Channel 4 to watch The Secret Life of the Zoo, and what do I find? Nigel Farage and Alastair Campbell howling at one another.
I know I tuned in to watch dumb animals but this wasn't what I had in mind.
Bloody Tories! Have now changed channels to the snooker. Dammit.
Personally I think that's more like >110, <70
"Bad news for Theresa May's Brussels trip as EU leaders will give her only 10 minutes of their time "
"The European Union is poised to reject Theresa May’s demands for “legally binding assurances” that the Irish backstop will only ever be temporary, senior EU diplomats have told Telegraph."
Therefore, if she loses then the Conservatives lose.
Trudy Harrison, who is the local Tory MP, is also nice and helpful. She is helping on a local campaign to save the local swimming pool. Has a small majority so makes it her business to appear and spend time at every local event going.
Ivan Massow is gay, I think. So not much use to us ladies.
There is no-one else who is remotely f****able. Being pawed over by Boris would be like having a boiled potato all over you.
Which she will no doubt remind him of if he is ever foolish enough to raise it...
The Tippex takes time to dry......
I know. The things I have had to try in my time - imagine, even chocolate dribbled on my coffee. I told the boiled potato that that was a step too far........